| --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | 投资评级 : 增持 | ( 首次 ) | | 基本数据 | 2024-08-19 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 27.65 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 0.93 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 5.37 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 0.93 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | -57% -40% -23% -6% 11% 27% 三孚新科 沪深300 分析师 张一弛 SAC 证书编号：S0160522110002 zhangyc02@ctsec.com 分析师 张磊 SAC 证书编号：S0160522120001 zhanglei02@ctsec.com 相关报告 ❖ PCB 行业下游需求复苏驱动电子化学品+设备业务增长：PCB 行业受 通讯电子和消费电子需求复苏以及 AI 浪潮驱动影响，已开启新成长周 期；同时，受国际政治格局变化影响，国内 PCB 企业抱团"出海"，在 东南亚投资建厂分散政治风险。根据 Prismark 预测，PCB 行业 2028 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and military industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1]. Core Insights - The defense and military industry index experienced a decline of -2.02% over the past week, ranking 23rd out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry classification. Over the past month, the index decreased by -0.37%, ranking 8th, and over the past year, it fell by -15.23%, ranking 11th [4][10]. - The current Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for the defense and military industry is 46.33, which is in the 1.95% percentile of the past ten years. The PE ratios for related sectors are as follows: aviation equipment at 40.10 (3.29% percentile), aerospace equipment at 89.40 (60.53% percentile), marine equipment at 90.00 (24.14% percentile), military electronics at 42.43 (10.43% percentile), and ground armaments at 33.77 (1.36% percentile) [4]. - Notable stock performances in the defense and military sector over the past week include: Zhongguang Optical (+14.20%), Jieqiang Equipment (+13.67%), and Xinyu Guoke (+7.46%). Conversely, stocks that performed poorly include: Guangqi Technology (-5.58%), Haitai High-tech (-5.62%), and Lijun Shares (-11.73%) [4]. Industry Data Tracking - The price of sponge titanium (≥99.6%) is currently 47 RMB/kg, down 1.05% from last week, and down 10.13% from last year. The price of BOCE electrolytic nickel is 73.3 RMB/kg, unchanged from last week, and down 9.51% from last year. Domestic acrylonitrile is priced at 8000 RMB/ton, down 4.76% from last week and down 1.84% from last year [5][29]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is currently at 1691, up 1.26% from last week, down 12.92% from last month, and up 37.15% from last year. The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) is at 936, up 1.52% from last week, down 11.20% from last month, and up 16.13% from last year [32]. Industry News - The C919 aircraft is expected to receive European certification next year. The ARJ21 successfully completed a demonstration validation task on a short and narrow runway in Indonesia [44]. - The successful launch of the Remote Sensing Satellite No. 43 on August 16, 2024, marks a significant achievement for the industry, as it is intended for low-orbit constellation system technology testing [44].

基础化工 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.08.19 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 基础化工 沪深300 上证指数 -27% -21% -15% -9% -3% 4% 分析师 毕春晖 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070001 bich@ctsec.com 分析师 梅宇鑫 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070002 meiyx@ctsec.com 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------|------------| | 1. | 《化工行业周报》 | 2024-08-13 | | 2. | 《化工行业周报》 | 2024-08-05 | | 3. | 《化工行业周报》 | 2024-07-30 | 维生素价格高位运行，云天化 2024 年上半年 归母净利润同比增长 核心观点 ❖ 本周行情：本周市场综合指数整体上行，上证综指报收 2879.43，本周上涨 0.60%，深证指数本周下跌 0.52%，A 股指数上涨 0.60%；其中化工板块下跌 2.11%。 ❖ 化工公司行情：本周涨幅前五的股票为：保利联合（+14.31% ...

轻工制造 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.08.18 多城拟收储商品房，去库存持续推进 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -32% -25% -18% -11% -4% 3% 轻工制造 沪深300 分析师 吕明璋 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030001 lvmz@ctsec.com 联系人 何栋 hedong@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《7 月家具社零同比-1.1%，增速转负》 2024-08-15 2. 《前七月家具出口额同比+11.9%，深 圳收储落地》 2024-08-11 3. 《收储去库持续推进，关注相关家居 转债》 2024-08-11 风险提示：地产销售下滑；原材料价格上涨；下游需求不及预期。 轻工行业周报 证券研究报告 核心观点 本周行情回顾：本周（2024.8.12-2024.8.16）申万轻工指数收报 1610.84 点， 周涨跌幅为-2.00%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.42pct，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名 第 21。本周轻工制造细分板块普跌，文娱用品/包装印刷/家居用品/造纸分别- 0.44%/-1.58%/-2.31%/-2.60%。 多城 ...

迎驾贡酒(603198) / 白酒Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2024.08.18 洞藏势能强劲，结构稳健升级 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |----------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-08-16 | | 收盘价(元) | 50.72 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.00 | | 每股净资产(元) | 10.84 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.00 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -32% -24% -15% -7% 1% 10% 迎驾贡酒 沪深300 分析师 吴文德 SAC 证书编号：S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《徽酒拾级而上，洞藏趁势启航》 2024-06-13 2. 《洞藏势能亮眼，省内表现突出》 2024-04-27 3. 《Q3 业绩延续高增，洞藏势头不减》 2023-10-30 ❖ 事件：公司发布 2024 年中报，24H1 实现营收 37.9 亿元，同比增长 20.4%； 实现归母净利润 13.8 亿元，同比增长 29.6%。24Q2 实现营收、归母净利 14.6、 4. ...

今世缘(603369) / 白酒Ⅱ / 公司点评 / 2024.08.18 势能稳中向好，上市十年再扬帆 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |----------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-08-16 | | 收盘价(元) | 42.99 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 12.54 | | 每股净资产(元) | 11.56 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.54 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -26% -18% -10% -2% 6% 14% 今世缘 沪深300 分析师 吴文德 SAC 证书编号：S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《开系适时合理提价，渠道推力信心 提振》 2024-02-29 2. 《结构提升稳健增长，百亿在即稳步 冲线》 2023-11-02 3. 《销售多点提升，营销求变高质冲线》 2023-09-01 ❖ 事件：公司发布 2024 年中报，24H1 实现营收 73.1 亿元，同比增长 22.3%； 实现归母净利润 24.6 亿元，同比增长 20.1%。24Q2 分 ...

社会服务 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.08.18 中报披露期，重视高景气教育旅游赛道 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -37% -29% -21% -14% -6% 2% 社会服务 沪深300 分析师 刘洋 SAC 证书编号：S0160521120001 liuyang01@ctsec.com 分析师 于健 SAC 证书编号：S0160522060001 yujian@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《关注高景气教育、旅游赛道》 2024-08-11 2. 《政策积极引导，教育免税需要重点 关注》 2024-08-04 3. 《信心底部区间，关注回暖信号》 2024-07-28 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 文旅：八月目前天气对于出行的扰动环比七月有所降低，关注近期政策 对于出行板块的催化。目前建议关注三个主题：1、东北、西北的暑期 话题度。2、机构关注度高、成长性好的个股的波段机遇：核心关注有 新项目/交通改善的九华旅游、峨眉山 A、黄山旅游等。3、低空经济重 塑景区交运产品矩阵机遇。 ❖ 酒店：截止 2024 年第 32 周，暑期入住率基本修复至去年同期水平，价 格恢复度与上周基 ...

农林牧渔 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.08.18 供应偏紧猪价延续上行，7 月产能回补较慢 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 农林牧渔 沪深300 分析师 余剑秋 SAC 证书编号：S0160522050003 yujq01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《猪价震荡向上，鸡苗价格较快回升》 2024-08-17 2. 《供应偏紧猪价升破 20 元，持续推 荐生猪养殖》 2024-08-11 3. 《供应偏紧猪价延续上涨，持续推荐 生猪养殖》 2024-08-04 农业重点数据跟踪周报 证券研究报告 核心观点 ❖ 生猪养殖：猪价偏强上涨，价格周期反转。市场挺价情绪较强，供应持续偏紧 张；部分压栏大猪陆续出栏，预计短期肥猪价格会有所下降。中长期，企业 现金流压力明显，价格周期反转，持续推荐配置生猪养殖。1）数量端：7 月能 繁母猪存栏有所增加。根据钢联统计，7 月能繁母猪存栏量较 6 月环比 +1.11%，其中规模场环比+1.14%，中小散环比+0.20%。2）价格端：震荡向 上。根据涌益咨询，8 月 15 日，商品猪出栏价为 21. ...

投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 | --- | --- | |----------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-08-16 | | 收盘价(元) | 136.14 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 1.70 | | 每股净资产(元) | 37.01 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.37 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -24% -16% -8% 1% 9% 17% 华海清科 沪深300 分析师 张益敏 SAC 证书编号：S0160522070002 zhangym02@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《CMP 业务稳步发展，新产品进展顺 利》 2024-04-28 2. 《把握机遇业绩高增，多元布局加速 成长》 2023-11-02 3. 《业绩高速增长，新业务发展良好》 2023-08-31 华海清科(688120) / 半导体 / 公司点评 / 2024.08.17 营收利润稳步增长，多地扩建厂房 证券研究报告 ❖ 事件：华海清科发布 2024 年半年报。2024 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 14.97 亿元，同比增长 21.23%；归母净利润 4.33 亿元，同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415) is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The overall operation in Q2 2024 is stable, with rapid growth in innovative businesses. The company reported a revenue of 41.209 billion yuan in 1H2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.13% to 5.064 billion yuan. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.11% to 5.243 billion yuan [4][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 23.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.46%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.73% to 3.148 billion yuan. The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders remained stable at 3.483 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.02% [5][6] - For 1H2024, the domestic main business remained stable, with the PBG segment under pressure, reporting a revenue of 5.693 billion yuan (down 9.25%). The EBG segment grew by 7.05% to 7.489 billion yuan, while the SMBG segment was stable with a revenue of 5.789 billion yuan (up 0.64%). The overseas main business showed resilience, with a revenue of 11.441 billion yuan, an increase of 15.46% [6] Innovative Business Growth - The innovative business segment experienced rapid growth, generating a revenue of 10.328 billion yuan, up 26.13%, accounting for 25.06% of total revenue. The gross margin increased by 1.94 percentage points year-on-year. Notable growth was seen in storage (up 65.51% to 1.312 billion yuan), automotive electronics (up 60.35% to 1.606 billion yuan), thermal imaging (up 24.05% to 1.83 billion yuan), robotics (up 20.45% to 2.744 billion yuan), and smart home (up 12.17% to 2.449 billion yuan) [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 99.199 billion yuan, 111.391 billion yuan, and 125.912 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 15.355 billion yuan, 16.877 billion yuan, and 19.031 billion yuan for the same years. The corresponding PE ratios are expected to be 16.56, 15.07, and 13.36 times [6][7]