房地产开发 / 行业投资策略周报 / 2024.09.19 房地产行业周报（2024 年第 37 周） 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -38% -30% -22% -14% -6% 1% 房地产开发 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 欧阳之光 SAC 证书编号：S0160524070001 oyzg@ctsec.com 分析师 吴梦茹 SAC 证书编号：S0160524060001 wumr@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 36 周）》 2024-09-08 2. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 35 周）》 2024-09-02 3. 《房地产行业周报（2024 年第 34 周）》 2024-08-25 新房销售表现平淡，二手房成交环比正增 核心观点 证券研究报告 ❖ 本周板块回顾：本周申万房地产指数下跌 0.50%，沪深 300 指数较上周下 跌 2.23%，板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.73pct，在 31 个板块中排第 2 位。 ❖ 行业数据回顾：本周 30 大中城市商品房成交面积 129 万平米，环比-16.1%， 同比-32.3%。细分城市能 ...

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75%-5%[1] - The median expected target rate for 2024 is now 4.1%, indicating at least another 50 basis points of cuts this year[1][4] Employment and Inflation Outlook - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024 has been raised from 4% to 4.4%[6] - The Fed has expressed greater confidence in progress towards the 2% inflation target, lowering the 2024 PCE inflation forecast to 2.3%[6] Economic Growth Projections - The expected GDP growth rate for 2024 has been slightly downgraded to 2%[2][8] - Recent economic activity is described as steady, but there are signs of a slowdown, with nine regions reporting flat or declining activity[2][8] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the Fed's decision, U.S. stock indices initially rose but later fell, while bond yields decreased and the dollar index dropped[2][9] - The Fed's future rate cuts are not expected to become a regular occurrence, with decisions to be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis[4][9] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy, and a sharper economic downturn[10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable high growth in performance, with asset quality remaining robust. The net profit for the first half of 2024 increased by 19.6% year-on-year, while revenue grew by 12.0% [2][3]. - The company has a unique competitive advantage through its "Changnong Microloan Model," focusing on small and micro enterprises, which has led to a leading growth rate in performance compared to peers [3][22]. Summary by Sections Performance and Growth - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with net profit reaching 1.734 billion yuan, up 19.6% [2][7]. - The growth in performance is attributed to several factors: 1. "Volume compensating for price," with net interest income forming the performance base, contributing 15.5 percentage points to performance [8]. 2. Investment income driving other non-interest income, contributing 5.5 percentage points [8]. 3. Cost optimization leading to an 11.1 percentage point positive contribution to profit [8]. 4. Increased provisioning impacting performance, with provisioning negatively affecting profit by 4.0 percentage points [8]. Credit and Deposit Trends - The total loans and advances reached 238.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, with corporate loans growing by 14.0% and personal loans by 6.9% [10][12]. - The deposit balance increased by 16.7% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 26.6% growth in personal time deposits, indicating a trend towards more time deposits [12][13]. Asset Quality - The asset quality remains stable, with non-performing loan (NPL) ratios at 0.76%, slightly up from the end of 2023 [19][21]. - The company has a provisioning coverage ratio of 539%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [21][22]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory, with projected net profit growth rates of 17.4%, 16.0%, and 15.2% for 2024-2026 [3][22]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratios are forecasted to be 0.67, 0.60, and 0.54 for the same period [3][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector is gradually stabilizing due to continued easing policies, although demand during the peak season remains to be verified. In September, the supply of new residential properties in 28 key cities is expected to be 7.03 million square meters, a decrease of 4% month-on-month and 59% year-on-year [2][6] - The cement supply is contracting while demand is gradually increasing, leading to a bottoming out of prices. Weather conditions have improved, allowing for the release of downstream demand, and various regions are implementing coordinated production halts to support price increases [15][16] - In the new materials sector, the price of fiberglass yarn is showing slight increases, while carbon fiber transactions remain sluggish with prices stabilizing. The market for electronic yarn is steady, but demand from downstream PCB markets is weak [20][21] Summary by Sections Consumer Building Materials - In early September, transaction volumes in first- and second-tier cities were weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% and a month-on-month decrease of 26% in transaction area across 23 major cities. The supply remains low, with new residential supply not exceeding the average monthly levels of the second quarter [2][6] - The easing monetary policy is expected to support the gradual stabilization of the real estate market, with potential improvements in building material demand as inventory is gradually released [6][7] Cyclical Materials - Cement supply is steadily contracting, with production halts in various regions to support price increases. The price of cement is expected to rise as supply and demand gradually match [15][16] - The float glass market is experiencing price declines due to weak demand, with prices dropping by 1-5 yuan per weight box. The overall supply remains stable, but the demand is not meeting expectations [16][17] New Materials - The price of fiberglass yarn is showing slight increases, with some products experiencing price hikes of 100-300 yuan per ton. However, the market for electronic yarn remains stable with general demand [20][21] - Carbon fiber prices are stable, but the market demand is weak, leading to a lack of transactions [20][21]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears to be positive based on the performance metrics discussed. Core Insights - Automotive sales showed a month-on-month recovery, with production and sales in August reaching 2.492 million and 2.453 million units, respectively, representing a month-on-month increase of 9% and 8.5% [2] - Domestic sales of passenger vehicles in August were 1.942 million units, up 8.3% month-on-month, while exports reached 511,000 units, marking a 9% month-on-month increase and a 25.4% year-on-year increase [2] - The market share of Chinese brands in passenger vehicles reached 66.9% in August, an increase of 10.1 percentage points [2] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales in August saw significant year-on-year growth, with production and sales reaching 1.092 million and 1.1 million units, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6% and 30% [3] - The export of NEVs was 110,000 units in August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] Summary by Sections Automotive Sales Performance - In August, the overall automotive industry produced and sold 2.492 million and 2.453 million vehicles, respectively, with month-on-month growth of 9% and 8.5% [2] - For the first eight months of the year, production and sales totaled 18.674 million and 18.766 million units, with year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 3% [2] Passenger Vehicle Market - Passenger vehicle production and sales in August were 2.221 million and 2.181 million units, both showing a month-on-month increase of 9.4% [2] - The market share of Chinese brands in the passenger vehicle segment has been steadily increasing, reaching 66.9% in August [2] Commercial Vehicle Market - Commercial vehicle production and sales in August were 271,000 and 272,000 units, with month-on-month increases of 5.7% and 1.4% [2] New Energy Vehicles - NEV sales in August reached 1.1 million units, with a market share of 44.8% [3] - The fastest-growing segment within NEVs was plug-in hybrid vehicles, which saw an 81.6% year-on-year increase in sales [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on companies within the AI foundational industry chain, such as NVIDIA, ORACLE, AWS, MICROSOFT, AMD, and others [4][33]. Core Insights - OpenAI's new model iteration, the o1 series, marks a significant advancement in generative AI, shifting the Scaling Law focus from pre-training to post-training and inference stages [3][6]. - There is a high demand for computing power, with breakthroughs in application areas, as evidenced by NVIDIA's expansion plans and Oracle's substantial growth in cloud infrastructure revenue [3][22][23]. - The o1 model demonstrates superior performance in complex reasoning tasks, surpassing human experts in specific fields, indicating a new level of AI capability [12][19]. Summary by Sections OpenAI Model Iteration - The o1 series was released on September 13, enhancing capabilities in coding, mathematics, and data analysis through a new internal reasoning chain [6][7]. - The new model's inference costs are significantly higher than those of GPT-4o, with input and output token prices being three and four times higher, respectively [6][7]. Computing Power Demand - NVIDIA's CEO highlighted the immense demand for their Blackwell GPUs, with plans to expand production to meet this demand [22]. - Oracle reported a 21% year-over-year increase in cloud revenue, with IaaS revenue growing by 45%, reflecting strong market demand for computing and storage services [23]. Application Breakthroughs - Microsoft introduced new AI workflows powered by the o1 model, enhancing collaboration across its Office suite [24][26]. - Adobe has integrated AI capabilities into its products, with a 70% increase in the usage of its AI Assistant, showcasing the growing importance of AI in document and creative cloud applications [31][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - In August 2024, the National Energy Administration issued 952 million green certificates, bringing the total to 1.841 billion by the end of August. Wind power accounted for 37.05%, solar power for 22.45%, conventional hydropower for 34.13%, biomass power for 6.3%, and other renewable energy sources for 0.07% [3][7] - Key company updates include: - China Resources Power's electricity sales in August reached 19.041 billion kWh, up 10.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 135.666 billion kWh, up 5.8% [3][12] - Longyuan Power's electricity generation in August was 4.995 billion kWh, up 7.38% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 51.255 billion kWh, up 1.05% [3][12] - Hubei Energy's electricity generation in August was 4.113 billion kWh, up 1.56% year-on-year, with a cumulative total of 29.833 billion kWh, up 26.71% [3][12] - The spot price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 858 RMB/ton on September 12, 2024, a decrease of 17 RMB/ton (-1.94%) year-on-year, but an increase of 14 RMB/ton (+1.66%) week-on-week [3][14] - Water inflow at the Three Gorges Dam was 14,000 cubic meters/second on September 13, 2024, with a weekly average of 12,943 cubic meters/second, down 4.53% year-on-year but up 6.21% week-on-week [3][17] Summary by Sections Industry News - The National Energy Administration released data on green certificate issuance and trading for August 2024, with 952 million certificates issued, and a total of 1.841 billion certificates issued by the end of August [7] Key Company Announcements - China Resources Power reported a 10.0% year-on-year increase in electricity sales for August, totaling 19.041 billion kWh [12] - Longyuan Power's electricity generation increased by 7.38% year-on-year in August, totaling 4.995 billion kWh [12] - Hubei Energy's electricity generation increased by 1.56% year-on-year in August, totaling 4.113 billion kWh [12] Domestic Electricity Data Tracking - The average spot electricity prices in major provinces varied, with Guangdong at 387.21 RMB/MWh and Shanxi at 323.64 RMB/MWh [14] Fossil Fuel and Hydrological Data Tracking - The spot price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was reported at 858 RMB/ton, showing a year-on-year decrease [14] - Water inflow at the Three Gorges Dam showed fluctuations, with a year-on-year decrease but a week-on-week increase [17] Major Company Dividends and Dividend Yields - The report includes a table summarizing the dividend yields of major companies in the utility sector over the past 12 months, indicating varying dividend policies among companies [19]

Revenue and Expenditure Progress - General public budget revenue for the first seven months of 2024 was CNY 13.6 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.6%, significantly below the budget target of 3.3% by 5.9 percentage points[5] - The revenue completion rate for the first seven months was 60.6%, lower than the average of 64.9% from 2017 to 2023, only higher than the same period in 2022[5] - Non-tax revenue grew by 12% in the same period, increasing its share of total revenue from 16.45% to 18%[7] Fiscal Deficit and Funding - The expected shortfall in general public budget revenue by year-end could reach approximately CNY 900 billion, with government fund revenue likely to decline by 10%, corresponding to a shortfall of about CNY 700 billion[20] - The total revenue gap across both accounts is estimated at CNY 1.6 trillion, necessitating accelerated implementation of existing policies and introduction of new measures[20] - As of August, the net financing scale of national bonds reached CNY 3 trillion, accounting for 69.3% of the annual central deficit target, marking the highest progress since 2015[16] Government Financing and Debt Issuance - The issuance of special bonds has been slow, with a progress rate of 65.9% in the first eight months, the second lowest since 2019, but has accelerated since August[16] - The remaining quota for local government bonds is approximately CNY 1.3 trillion, with a total of nearly CNY 2.9 trillion available for financing through national and local bonds combined[20] - The central government has over CNY 8 billion in remaining quota space for national bond issuance, which can be utilized if necessary[20]

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize, with focus on new infrastructure and coastal/western regions[3] - By the end of 2023, China's railway operating mileage reached 159,000 kilometers, including 45,000 kilometers of high-speed rail[3] - The total length of highways in China is 5,436,800 kilometers, with 183,600 kilometers being expressways[3] Group 2: Industry Trends - Traditional infrastructure investment returns have significantly declined, indicating a shift towards structural investment opportunities[3] - High-quality development is crucial for sustainable operations in the construction industry, with a shift from focusing solely on profit to prioritizing cash flow and balance sheet sustainability[3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - State-owned enterprises in the construction sector, such as China Railway and China State Construction, are recommended due to their stronger risk resistance[4] - Private companies with core competitiveness and relatively low debt ratios, like Honglu Steel Structure and Jianghe Group, are expected to find new growth opportunities post-industry consolidation[4] Group 4: Risks - Risks include lower-than-expected growth support, policy effectiveness, and economic recovery[4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The social services sector has seen a market performance decline of 37% over the past 12 months, compared to a 15% decline in the CSI 300 index[1] - The hotel occupancy rate (OCC) is at 57.61%, down 0.94 percentage points week-on-week, and down 5.93 percentage points compared to 2019[18] - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels is 194.45 CNY, reflecting a 1.61% decrease week-on-week and a 5.64% decrease compared to 2019[18] Group 2: Sector Insights - In the education sector, the K12 market is experiencing high growth, with leading companies expected to benefit from regulatory changes and increased demand for quality education services[23] - The public service examination training sector is set to see growth as the 2025 examination cycle approaches, with companies like Zhonggong Education focusing on employment services for the 18-45 age group[26] - The beauty and medical aesthetics sectors are witnessing a shift towards domestic brands, with new product launches expected to drive growth, particularly in the lead-up to the Double 11 shopping festival[2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong growth potential in the tourism sector, particularly those with new projects or improved transportation links, such as Jiuhua Tourism and Huangshan Tourism[1] - In the hotel sector, attention should be given to leading brands that are expected to perform well in the third quarter, alongside new brand incubation and product iteration[1] - The retail sector is showing signs of recovery, with many companies' valuations at low levels, suggesting potential investment opportunities in undervalued stocks[2]