5 宏观定期策略 -21% -11% -1% 9% 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 上证指数 沪深300 1 经济金融高频数据周报（04.15-04.19）2024- 04-21 国内工业利润数据放缓，美核心 PCE 略超预期 本周观点：国内方面，3 月工业企业营收单月同比增速-1.2%，而 1-2 月同比增长 4.5%。从量、价和利润率三方面来看，量的方面有所放 缓，3月工业增加值同比增速为 4.5%，较 1-2 月回落 2.5 个百分点； 价的方面持续低迷，PPI 同比中枢为-2.8%，较 1-2 月回落 0.2 个百 分点；利润率方面也有所承压，2024 年 3 月工业企业营业收入利润 率低于去年同期，对工业利润增速的拉动较 1-2 月回落 10个百分点 以上。往后看，国内经济大概率持续弱修复趋势，量、价端将有所改 善但不宜高估，出口方面的强势或对工业企业利润形成支撑。积极关 注利润持续高增行业，总体来看，出口型制造业、TMT行业景气度较 高、持续性强，可挖掘相关板块机会。资源品价格经过一段时间上涨 后，短期有一定压力，但中长期趋势向上的基本面未改。下游消费环 节大概率持 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|---------|-------|-------|--------| | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | | | | 指数名称 | | | 收盘 | | | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | | | 3140.72 | | | 1.16 | | 深证成指 | | | 9779.21 | | | 2.00 | | 创业板指 | | | 1895.21 | | | 1.98 | | 科创 50 | | | 777.66 | | | 1.33 | | 北证 50 | | | 825.85 | | | 1.43 | | 沪深 300 | | | 3657.88 | | | 1.48 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------|-----------| | 类别 | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | ...

证券研究报告 行业点评 汽车 汽车以旧换新补贴细则落地，新能源汽车有望加速 渗透 2024年 04月30日 2023A 2024E 2025E 重点股票 评级 EPS（元） PE（倍） EPS（元） PE（倍） EPS（元） PE（倍） 评级 同步大市 均胜电子 0.28 62.08 1.00 17.44 1.25 13.91 买入 评级变动： 维持 长安汽车 1.14 14.51 0.87 19.04 1.02 16.22 增持 开特股份 0.64 14.94 0.78 12.36 0.94 10.18 买入 行业涨跌幅比较 银轮股份 0.74 25.27 0.95 19.82 1.32 14.21 买入 资料来源：iFinD（2024-4-26收盘价），财信证券 汽车 沪深300 19% 9% 投资要点： -1%  事件：4月 26日，商务部、财政部等7部门联合印发《汽车以旧换新 -11% 补贴实施细则》，2024年 4月 26日至 2024年12月 31日期间，对个 -21% 人消费者报废国三及以下排放标准燃油乘用车，或报废 2018 年 4 月 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 202 ...

资料来源：Wind，财信证券 资料来源：Wind，财信证券 策略报告 图 3：各期限国债到期收益率（%） 图 4：各期限国开债到期收益率（%） 资料来源：iFind，财信证券 资料来源：iFind，财信证券 5 大宗商品（大宗商品多数小幅震荡，小麦领涨） 大宗商品多数小幅震荡，小麦领涨。CBOT 小麦、NYMEX天然气和NYMEX WTI 原油表现靠前，涨跌幅分别为 9.8%、9.6%和 1.8%。表现相对不佳的是伦敦银现、LME 铝和伦敦金现，涨跌幅分别为-5.2%、-4.1%和-2.3%。受主产区天气不佳影响，CBOT 小 麦期货大幅攀升。原油方面，上周以色列对加沙南部城市拉法发起全面袭击，地缘政治 冲突再度触发市场对原油供给端担忧，但受美国通胀数据超预期影响，美联储降息预期 此报告仅供内部客户参考 -6- 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策略报告 推迟，油价涨幅受到一定限制。贵金属方面，上周美国公布的经济数据显示，当前经济 仍运行在温和区间，但"胀"的风险再度上升，引发降息预期后延，但受地缘政治冲突 导致的避险情绪影响，金价小幅震荡。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

2024 年 04 月 29 日 相关报告 2024 年 04 月 26 日出口集装箱运价指数为 1193.64 点，较上周增加 7.11 点。2024 年 03 月中国主要港口外贸货物吞吐量当月值为 45091.07 万吨，较去年同期增加 3166 万吨。 全球经济增速有所下行，2024 年 04 月 26 日波罗的海干散货指数 (BDI)当周平均值为 1784.8 点，较上周减少 49.80 点；通胀水平高位 震荡，CRB 商品价格指数当周平均值为 297.45 点，较上周增加 0.81 点。 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | % | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 上证指数 | 1.31 | -3.79 | 25.97 | | 沪深 300 | 5.29 | 10.04 | -2.05 | 3 宏观经济研究周报（04.08-04.12）：国内 CPI 同比回落，美国 CPI 同比超预期 2024-04-15 风险提示：数据指标具有滞后性，政策变化超预期。 国内经济增长 ...

证券研究报告 行业深度 光伏设备 产研并进，降本提效，共赴星辰大海 钙钛矿行业深度报告 2024年 04月24日 2022A 2023E 2024E 重点股票 评级 EPS（元） PE（倍） EPS（元） PE（倍） EPS（元） PE（倍） 评级 同步大市 捷佳伟创 3.01 20.01 4.57 13.18 6.82 8.83 买入 评级变动： 首次 京山轻机 0.49 27.20 0.71 18.67 0.95 13.90 买入 杰普特 0.81 54.31 1.46 30.13 2.28 19.29 增持 行业涨跌幅比较 曼恩斯特 1.69 40.57 2.94 23.32 4.26 16.09 增持 微导纳米 0.12 259.08 0.62 50.15 1.14 27.27 增持 光伏设备 沪深300 13% 资料来源：iFinD，财信证券 -7% 投资要点： -27%  钙钛矿属于第三代太阳能电池，在性能和特点上具备诸多优势。钙钛 -47% 矿型太阳能电池是利用钙钛矿型的有机金属卤化物半导体作为吸光材 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10 2024-01 2024-04 料的太阳能电 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and profit, with a notable turnaround in performance. In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 748.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.81%, and a net profit of 29.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1614.73% [5][6] - The shipbuilding industry in China is experiencing a positive trend, with the company securing a substantial number of orders. In 2023, the company received orders for 128 vessels, totaling 728.78 billion yuan, and as of the end of 2023, it had a backlog of 261 vessels worth 1534.99 billion yuan [6] - The continuous rise in ship prices, coupled with a decline in steel prices, has created a favorable margin for shipbuilders, enhancing profitability. The Clarkson new ship price index increased by 10.1% in 2023, marking the highest level since 2009 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 748.39 billion yuan and a net profit of 29.57 billion yuan, with a significant increase in Q1 2024 revenue to 152.70 billion yuan, up 68.84% year-on-year [5][6] - Forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 55.41 billion yuan, 87.02 billion yuan, and 101.45 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.24 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.27 yuan [7] Market Position - The company is a leader in the Chinese shipbuilding industry, with a market share of 50.2% in completed shipbuilding, 66.6% in new orders, and 55% in backlog as of 2023 [6] - The company is also expanding its presence in the green shipbuilding sector, capturing 57% of the international market share for new green ship orders [6] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a P/E ratio forecast of 29.56 for 2024, decreasing to 16.15 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][7] - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 3.16 in 2024 to 2.58 in 2026, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [5][7]

本报告信息来源于公开资料，本公司对该信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本公司对已发报告无更 新义务，若报告中所含信息发生变化，本公司可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更 新或修改。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人（包括本公司客户及员工）不得以任何形式复制、 发表、引用或传播。 网址：stock.hnchasing.com 地址：湖南省长沙市芙蓉中路二段 80 号顺天国际财富中心 28 层 邮编：410005 电话：0731-84403360 传真：0731-84403438 2024 年 04 月 29 日 评级 增持 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|---------|---------|-------|------------| | | | | | | | | 戈碧迦 | | | 光学光电子 | | 381% | | | | | | 281% | | | | | | 181% | | | | | | 81% | | | | | | -19% 2023-04 | 2023-07 | 2023 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 349.32 billion yuan in 2023, representing a 15.04% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 115.82 billion yuan, up 20.56% from the previous year [4][5] - The company continues to expand its high-end customer base overseas, achieving nearly 30% growth in international business in Q1 2024, with significant contributions from developing countries [5][6] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic medical device manufacturer, with strong innovation capabilities and competitive pricing, which are expected to drive further market share gains and revenue growth in the coming years [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company's main revenue is projected to grow from 424.97 billion yuan in 2024 to 593.81 billion yuan by 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 139.20 billion yuan to 193.61 billion yuan over the same period [4][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 11.48 yuan in 2024 to 15.97 yuan in 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [4][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 26.31 in 2024 to 18.92 in 2026, suggesting the stock may become more attractive over time [4][7] Business Segment Performance - Domestic revenue reached 213.82 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 14.54%, driven by the recovery of routine medical activities [5][6] - The IVD (in vitro diagnostics) segment showed remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 21.11% to 124.21 billion yuan, benefiting from the recovery of demand for diagnostic reagents [5][6] - The medical imaging segment experienced slower growth due to industry policy impacts, but high-end ultrasound models saw over 20% growth domestically and over 25% growth internationally [5][6]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------|-----------------|----------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 | | | 2024 年 | 05 月 | 06 日 | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | 晨会聚焦 | | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | 涨跌 | % | 一、财信研究观点 | | 上证指数 | | 3104.82 | -0.26 | | 【市场策略】 A 股迎来配置机会，专注高景气赛道 | | 深证成指 | | 9587.12 | -0.90 | | | | 创业板指 | | 1858.39 | -1.55 | | 【基金研究】基金数据日跟踪 | | 科创 50 | | 767.46 | -1.12 | | 【债券研究】债券市场综述 | | 北证 50 | | 814.2 ...