各位领导晚上好我是方证证券金融首席徐玉珊今天主要跟各位领导汇报一下受险行业明年一季度的产品策略我们现在其实可以看到在今年8月和9月末的时候整个受险行业是在持续下调产品的预定利率然后从10月份的数据来看各家在去年同期三季度基数比较高的背景下依旧实现了一个正增长 那当前的话各家的这个业务目标达成的都比较好预计已经转向了这个产品的销售培训以及明年的续课那我们可以看到其实一季度的保费占全年保费的比重虽然在近期有略微的下滑但是呢上市公司在这个一季度的保费占比相对来说还是比较高的 我们可以看到20年到23年整个行业一季度的受险保费占比其实大概都在40%到45%左右从最近最完整的年度来看的话就是23年虽然也有预定利率下调然后三季度的基数提升的背景但是23年我们去看整个上市的公司大概它的一季度保费占全年比重都在35%到60%之间 虽然行业最近也是在淡化开门红的概念然后客户的储蓄需求在三季度也有一个提前的消耗但是因为年终奖发放的时间以及居民的储蓄需求比较旺盛的这些客观原因我们觉得明年一季度的开门红保费收入依旧会在全年处于一个比较占比比较高的一个水平 那我们再去看各家的这个新备案的产品以及在售的产品其实现在已经大多都切换到了浮动 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as **Recommended** by the research report, indicating a positive outlook for the computer and AI sectors [1] Core Views - AI applications are transitioning from the cognitive phase to industrial penetration, with industries increasingly embracing AI technology [1] - Four main commercialization paths for AI capabilities are identified: MaaS (Model as a Service), SaaS (Software as a Service), solutions and deployment, and traffic monetization [1][8] - MaaS is expected to become the dominant business model by 2027, with its market share projected to grow from 5% in 2023 to 47% by 2027 [1] - SaaS subscription models are gaining traction, especially in B2B sectors, with 71.05% of AI SaaS applications adopting subscription-based pricing [1][8] - Traffic monetization focuses on capturing long-tail C-end users and new users, with the AIGC advertising market in China expected to grow 10x by 2030 [2] MaaS (Model as a Service) - MaaS lowers the barrier for SMEs to adopt AI, with major players like OpenAI, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent offering flexible pricing models [1][8] - The MaaS market is expected to grow significantly, with its share in the AIGC market projected to increase from 13% in 2023 to 47% by 2027 [11] - Major players are reducing prices to cultivate user habits and ecosystems, with Alibaba Cloud reducing prices by up to 85% and Baidu offering free tokens [1][18] - The cost of training large models like GPT-4 is estimated at $78 million, with scaling laws driving non-linear cost increases as model parameters grow [13][14] SaaS (Software as a Service) - SaaS subscription models are dominant, with 71.05% of AI SaaS applications adopting this model, particularly in B2B sectors [1][8] - AI-driven SaaS applications are accelerating the shift from licensing to subscription models, with companies like Foxit Software seeing subscription revenue grow from 21.2% in 2022 to 35.4% in 2023 [1][37] - B2B SaaS applications are monetizing faster than C-end applications, with 50% of B2B AI SaaS applications using subscription models [30] - C-end SaaS applications, such as Character.ai, are leveraging personalized interactions and community features to enhance user stickiness and monetization [31][32] Solutions and Deployment - Customized solutions for large B/G-end clients are driving growth, with 49% of large model procurement in 2023 coming from B-end demand [1] - Companies like Zhongkong Technology and Chinasoft International are leveraging AI to reduce costs and improve efficiency in industrial applications [1][55] - The average project budget for large model procurement increased to 6.18 million RMB in 2023, reflecting growing demand for AI solutions [1] Traffic Monetization - Traffic monetization focuses on capturing long-tail C-end users, with the AIGC advertising market in China projected to reach 150 billion RMB by 2030 [2] - Companies like ASK.AI are leveraging single-point tools to attract traffic and monetize through advertising, with more ad spending expected to shift to AI applications [2] - The AIGC advertising market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing adoption of AI tools in marketing and content generation [2] Key Companies and Their Strategies - **Baidu**: Baidu Cloud's MaaS+BaaS model has achieved a 99% core customer retention rate in 2023, with AI cloud revenue growing by 8% [25] - **Alibaba**: Alibaba Cloud reduced prices for its Qwen series models by up to 85%, aiming to accelerate industry adoption [18][20] - **Tencent**: Tencent's Hunyuan model reduced API prices by up to 87.5%, with plans to expand token limits to 256k [18] - **Foxit Software**: Foxit's subscription revenue grew by 73.3% in Q1 2024, with ARR reaching 281 million RMB [41] - **Wondershare**: Wondershare's subscription renewal rate increased by 5 percentage points in 2023, with monthly active users growing by 30% in the creative drawing segment [1][40] - **Kingsoft Office**: WPS AI has driven subscription growth, with cumulative annual paying users exceeding 1 million by 2026 [1][54]

各位尊敬的同志大家好我是研究所副所长于璐靖然后感谢大家持续对我们方正军工机械团队的支持然后今天继续由我和赵璐分析师赵璐一块给大家去汇报一下核电的情况因为我们在上周的时候刚请专家跟大家做了交流和预判大家也很多同志也都听了这次我们在上周的核电的重大的推荐这也是我们持续从去年年底一直看好 和这个板块尤其是在去年底的时候除了我们自己核准石台继续核准石台以外呢我们也看到了美国的或者是西方国家在第28次气候大会之中明确强调核电的整个未来发电占比要明显提升200%左右的这个幅度提升之后呢我们也看到了去年年底的时候中国聚变能源公司中和集团组织的聚变能源公司这个筹备那现在还是筹备状态那后续 很有可能在任意的节点出现完成出资和挂牌的这样一个情况那在今年的话其实我们在上周专家会专家也说的很明确今年整个预期确实是11台堆但是这一次像昨天晚上的话是明确的超预期因为之前的话三次核准基本在五台六台这样样子也就是在零核准之后这一次应该是创造了三次核准的记录 其实意义是非常大的之前大家可能预估是分成两次核准一次就核准完了这次主要意义就在于在最近大家看到了这个国际原子能组织对于俄罗斯的关注因为最近其实整个在核电领域的整个全社会的舆情是有一定的在 ...

公司研究 2024.08.12 361 度 （ 01361） 公司点评报告 量增驱动收入稳健增长，打造专业运动资源矩阵提升品牌势能 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 陈佳妮 登记编号：S1220520080002 联系人 廖捷 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------| | | | | 强烈推荐 ( | 维 持 ) | | 公司信息 | | | 行业 | 运动服装 | | 最新收盘价 (港元) | 3.4 | | 总市值(亿 )(港元) | 70.30 | | 52 周最高/最低价(港元 ) | 4.95/3.22 | 历史表现 -34% -26% -18% -10% -2% 23/8/12 23/11/11 24/2/10 24/5/11 24/8/10 361度 恒生指数 数据来源：wind 方正证券研究所 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------- ...

公司研究 2024.08.12 锦江酒店（ 600754） 公司点评报告 24Q2 扣非业绩超预期，关注暑期旺季表现 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 李珍妮 登记编号：S1220523080002 王雪尼 登记编号：S1220524070003 推 荐 ( 维 持 ) 公司信息 行业 酒店 最新收盘价(人民币/元) 23.87 总市值(亿)(元) 255.42 52 周最高/最低价(元) 47.80/21.75 历史表现 -54% -43% -32% -21% -10% 23/8/12 23/11/11 24/2/10 24/5/11 24/8/10 锦江酒店 沪深300 《锦江酒店(600754)：24Q2 扣非业绩超预期， 关注暑期旺季表现》2024.07.17 《锦江酒店(600754)：24Q1 收入同增 6.8%，新 开业 222 家符合预期》2024.05.08 《锦江酒店(600754)：23 年归母净利润 10 亿 元基本符合预期，分红率超 50%》2024.04.06 《锦江酒店(600754)：23 年业绩基本符合预期， 关注 24 年边际改善》2024.02. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, predicting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue and profit growth in Q2 2024, with a revenue of 5.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, and a net profit of 1.2 billion yuan, up 42.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin has improved to 36.5% in Q2 2024, reflecting a 6.9 percentage points increase year-on-year [1]. - The demand from downstream markets is gradually recovering, leading to accelerated inventory digestion and some products experiencing supply shortages [1]. - The company is actively responding to customer needs by introducing mid-to-high-end products in emerging application scenarios such as new energy vehicles, energy storage, and data centers, which is expected to further optimize the product structure [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 870 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, up 47.5% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue forecast for the company is projected to be 19.2 billion yuan in 2024, 24.0 billion yuan in 2025, and 30.3 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.03%, 25.00%, and 26.29% respectively [2][3]. - The net profit is expected to reach 4.5 billion yuan in 2024, 5.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.0 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.22%, 19.66%, and 30.05% respectively [2][3]. Product and Market Dynamics - The SGT-MOSFET product line is experiencing high demand, with revenue growth of 40.3% year-on-year, accounting for 41.4% of total revenue [1]. - The company has made significant progress in automotive electronics, with a partnership with BYD expected to enhance product supply by over 50% in the first half of 2024 [1]. - The AI computing server applications are also seeing substantial growth, with multiple products from the SGT series being utilized, indicating a strong sales outlook for the second half of the year [1].

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a predicted increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [3][11]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded expectations in its Q3 guidance, with a significant acceleration in 12-inch wafer production. The revenue for Q2 2024 reached $1.9 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 21.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 8.6% [4][5]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in capacity utilization, which has improved from a low of 77-78% in Q3 2023 to 85.2% in Q2 2024, reflecting confidence in its growth strategy [5][6]. - The company plans to maintain its capital expenditure at approximately $7.5 billion for 2024, consistent with 2023 levels, driven by improvements in the global equipment supply chain [5][6]. Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported total revenue of $3.65 billion, a year-over-year increase of 20.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was $236 million, down 62.7% year-over-year [4][5]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 13.8%, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points year-over-year [4]. - The company expects Q3 2024 sales revenue to grow by 13%-15% quarter-over-quarter, with gross margins projected to improve to between 18-20% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is benefiting from strong domestic demand and government support, positioning itself as a key player in the semiconductor industry amid ongoing global supply chain challenges [6]. - The company is accelerating its expansion plans for 12-inch wafers, with an increase in production capacity expected to reach an additional 60,000 wafers per month by the end of 2024 [5][6]. - The company anticipates achieving revenues of RMB 551.9 billion, RMB 618.6 billion, and RMB 685.9 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected to be RMB 48.9 billion, RMB 60.7 billion, and RMB 67.7 billion [6][7].

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