Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a revolution in sequencing technology empowered by AI, with domestic companies accelerating their AI business layout [5][6] - The domestic sequencing market is rapidly growing, with China becoming the second-largest gene testing market globally, surpassing 33.5 billion RMB in 2024 [31] - AI technology is significantly reducing costs and enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of sequencing processes, leading to advancements in personalized treatment and drug development [32] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry includes 645 listed companies with a total share capital of 5,825.23 million shares and sales revenue of 37,462.19 billion RMB [1] - The total profit for the industry is 3,382.22 billion RMB, with an average PE ratio of 42.37 [1] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index increased by 1.06% during the week of March 3-7, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.39% [7][9] - The pharmaceutical industry index PE (TTM, excluding negative values) is 26.65 times, with a valuation premium of 121.81% compared to the CSI 300 index, indicating a historical low [9] AI Empowerment in Sequencing Technology - AI is optimizing sequencing processes and data analysis algorithms, enhancing speed and accuracy [31] - Domestic companies like BGI and Tempus are leveraging AI to create closed-loop ecosystems for data analysis and clinical applications [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in reducing detection costs and improving personalized treatment options [32] Key Companies and Developments - Tempus AI focuses on integrating AI with clinical diagnostics, utilizing a vast database for drug development and clinical trial optimization [20][21] - BGI is enhancing sequencing efficiency through AI tools and has established a significant presence in over 100 countries [32] - Other notable companies include Shengxiang Biology, Novogene, and Berry Genomics, all of which are advancing their AI capabilities in sequencing and diagnostics [34][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for TCL Smart Home, indicating a forecasted increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [6][13]. Core Views - TCL Smart Home's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 18.36 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.02 billion RMB, reflecting a 29.6% increase [3][4]. - The company has shown strong performance in overseas markets, with a 55.9% year-on-year growth in overseas business revenue, driven by a robust global strategy [3][4]. - The report highlights the improvement in profitability, with a net profit margin of 5.55% for 2024, up by 0.37 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, TCL Smart Home's revenue and net profit are projected to be 18.36 billion RMB and 1.02 billion RMB, respectively, with significant growth rates of 21.0% and 29.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenues of 4.42 billion RMB and a net profit of 194 million RMB, marking increases of 15.1% and 29.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company's main operational segments, including the Oma refrigerator and Hefei appliances, reported revenues of 13.41 billion RMB and 5.04 billion RMB, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 22.7% and 15.5% [3][4]. Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from refrigeration and washing machines reached 15.51 billion RMB and 2.70 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.5% and 33.2%, respectively [4]. - Domestic revenue slightly declined by 1.55% to 4.87 billion RMB, while overseas revenue surged by 31.82% to 13.50 billion RMB, indicating a shift towards international markets [4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 23.0%, a slight decrease of 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for refrigeration and washing machines at 25.1% and 10.4% [5]. - The report notes an optimization in expense ratios, with selling, administrative, and R&D expenses showing improvements in Q4 2024 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 5.55%, reflecting an increase in profitability compared to the previous year [5]. Future Projections - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 indicates net profits of 1.15 billion RMB and 1.30 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 RMB and 1.20 RMB [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting total revenues of 20.52 billion RMB in 2025 and 22.92 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 11.78% and 11.68% [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, predicting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company is actively exploring low-altitude tourism, aligning with national policy directions, and has made significant strides in commercializing low-altitude tourism products [3][4]. - The company is expected to experience substantial profit growth in 2025, with projected net profit reaching approximately 400 million RMB, indicating a high safety margin at the current market valuation of about 25 times earnings [4][6]. - The company has a rich resource base from its controlling shareholder, which supports ongoing asset integration and business expansion [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 8.25 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 11.40 billion RMB in 2025, and 13.13 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 38%, and 15% respectively [5][7]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 1.74 billion RMB in 2024, 3.96 billion RMB in 2025, and 5.40 billion RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 127%, and 37% respectively [5][6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.14 RMB in 2023 to 0.51 RMB in 2026 [7][9].

公司研究 2025.03.12 新城控股（ 601155） 公司点评报告 提振消费空间打开，商业增速维持强劲——新城控股 2 月经营点评 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 刘清海 登记编号：S1220523090001 联系人 刘张驰 | | | | 公 | 司 | 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | | | 商业地产 | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | | | 13.11 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | | | 295.71 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | | | 16.47/8.05 | 历史表现 -23% -7% 9% 25% 41% 57% 24-3-12 24-6-11 24-9-10 24-12-10 新城控股 沪深300 数据来源：wind 方正证券研究所 相关研究 《新城控股(601155)：销售单价持续提升，商业 收入双位数增长——新城控股 1 月经营点评》 2025.02.14 《新城控股(601155)：销售单价触底企稳，商业 运营持续增长》2025.01.12 《新城控股( ...

公司研究 2025.03.11 老凤祥（ 600612） 公司点评报告 24 年金价持续上涨公司表现承压，25 年降幅已现收窄趋势期待后续拐点 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 周昕 登记编号：S1220524100007 联系人 廖捷 《老凤祥(600612)：24H1 整体表现平稳，毛利 率提升&费用率稳健带动盈利能力改善》 2024.08.30 《老凤祥(600612)：黄金消费景气驱动公司业 绩亮眼增长，渠道有望保持较快扩张步伐》 2024.05.04 《老凤祥(600612)：23 年业绩稳健增长，金价 上 行 推 动 黄 金 消 费 仍 具 较 高 景 气 度 》 2024.03.05 事件：公司发布 24 年业绩快报。 | | | | 公 司 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | 钟表珠宝 | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | 51.05 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | 267.05 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | 86.19/47.10 | 历史表现 -36% -25% -14% -3% 8% 24/3/11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a predicted increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [2][7][18]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 85% of REGEN Biotech for $190 million, aiming for full ownership within 18 months, which will enhance its indirect stake to 70% [3]. - REGEN Biotech is a leading player in regenerative aesthetics in South Korea, known for its PDLLA injection products, with approvals in 34 countries including China [4]. - The acquisition is expected to create a comprehensive regenerative product matrix, alleviating market concerns about the company's product pipeline [5]. - The Korean factory is anticipated to serve as a global expansion platform, leveraging REGEN Biotech's existing market presence in 34 countries [5]. - The acquisition is projected to significantly boost the company's earnings, with an expected annual profit increase of 30 million yuan based on 2023 data [6]. - The report emphasizes that this acquisition will reshape the company's valuation and address concerns regarding its growth trajectory [7]. Financial Projections - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 2,869 million yuan in 2023 to 4,106 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.6% [11][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,858 million yuan in 2023 to 2,730 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of about 18.68% [11][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.60 yuan in 2023 to 9.02 yuan in 2026 [11][14]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 34.22 in 2023 to 22.28 in 2026, indicating a potential valuation re-rating [11][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, predicting a relative increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [10]. Core Views - The company has signed over 15,000 stores, indicating a sustained momentum in store openings and a strong long-term growth outlook [3][4]. - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond snacks to include daily necessities and other categories, enhancing its market presence [4]. - The launch of discount supermarkets is expected to significantly contribute to the company's growth potential, leveraging its strong supply chain and logistics capabilities [4]. Financial Performance - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.949 billion, 51.272 billion, and 60.712 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 243.77%, 60.48%, and 18.41% [5]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 268 million, 519 million, and 705 million RMB, with growth rates of 422.60%, 94.11%, and 35.85% [5]. - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.49, 2.89, and 3.92 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. Market Position - The company has established a strong brand recognition with over 10,000 stores, which is expected to enhance customer traffic [3]. - The new store formats are designed to meet community needs, offering a wider range of products at competitive prices compared to traditional retail formats [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a domestic leader in the aramid paper industry, with a global market share of approximately 15%, second only to DuPont [4][51]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024, and a net profit CAGR of 28% during the same period [4][31]. - The aramid paper industry is strategically important in China, receiving government support since the 1970s, and is classified as a key strategic material [4][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of aramid paper and its derivatives, having established a comprehensive product system and proprietary technology [14][20]. - It is the first aramid paper manufacturer in China and has broken DuPont's monopoly in the field, making China the second country capable of producing aramid paper [15][52]. Industry Outlook - The aramid paper market is expected to grow significantly, driven by demand in various sectors such as electrical power, aerospace, and new energy [5][48]. - The domestic aramid paper consumption is projected to have a CAGR of 19.63% from 2022 to 2028, with the market size reaching approximately $585 million by 2028 [7][54]. Capacity Expansion and Product Development - The company plans to increase its aramid paper production capacity from 3,000 tons to 4,500 tons through ongoing investment projects, with full capacity expected by 2027 [6][30]. - New product development is underway, including RO membrane substrates and flash-spun non-woven fabrics, with the RO membrane project expected to commence production in the first half of 2026 [7][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 409 million, 503 million, and 628 million RMB, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 20.03%, 23.02%, and 24.95% [8][9]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 100 million, 125 million, and 159 million RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 22.86%, 24.94%, and 26.97% [8][9]. Competitive Position - The company has a strong competitive edge with a gross margin improvement from 25.59% in 2020 to 37.53% in the first three quarters of 2024 [5][37]. - The company’s high gross margins are indicative of its strong market position compared to peers [42].

行业研究 2025.03.10 商 贸 零 售 行 业 周 报 天猫"3.8"首日可复美/毛戈平/绽家排名显著进阶，孩子王与头部算力算法企业合作布局 AI+ 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 刘章明 | 登记编号：S1220523050001 | | --- | --- | | 周昕 | 登记编号：S1220524100007 | | 陈佳妮 | 登记编号：S1220520080002 | | 谷寒婷 | 登记编号：S1220524030001 | | 廖捷 | | --- | | 联系人 | 行业评级 : 推 荐 | 行 | 业 | 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市公司总家数 | | | | 144 | | 总股本(亿股) | | | | 2,923.62 | | 销售收入(亿元) | | | | 21,639.47 | | 利润总额(亿元) | | | | 1,570.81 | | 行业平均 PE | | | | 24.83 | | 平均股价(元) | | | | 15.49 | 行 业 相 对 指 数 表 现 -2 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025.03.10 每 周 经 济 动 态 近期美股市场下跌原因探析 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 《10 月美国 CPI 同比料在低基数下反弹》 2024.11.11 《基建实物工作量同比降幅收窄，地产销售延 续改善——量化经济指数周报-20241103》 2024.11.05 《美国大选投票日观察指南》2024.11.03 金晗 登记编号：S1220525030005 燕翔 登记编号：S1220525030001 相 关 研 究 《特朗普交易或有止盈风险，美联储料暂停降 息进程》2024.11.17 《建材价格延续回升指向建筑需求仍在改善— —量化经济指数周报-20241117》2024.11.17 2025 年 2 月中旬以来美股三大指数出现快速调整，截至 3 月 9 日收盘，标 普 500 指数相较于 2 月中旬的高点已下跌 6.1%，纳斯达克指数下跌 9.3%， 道琼斯指数下跌 4.1%。分行业看，美股可选消费、通讯服务、信息技术行 业领跌。我们认为，近期美股市场下跌的主要原因有以下三点：美国 AI 垄 断格局被打破、美国经济增长动力减弱、特朗普关税政策引发担 ...