Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, predicting a relative increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [10]. Core Views - The company has signed over 15,000 stores, indicating a sustained momentum in store openings and a strong long-term growth outlook [3][4]. - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond snacks to include daily necessities and other categories, enhancing its market presence [4]. - The launch of discount supermarkets is expected to significantly contribute to the company's growth potential, leveraging its strong supply chain and logistics capabilities [4]. Financial Performance - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 31.949 billion, 51.272 billion, and 60.712 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 243.77%, 60.48%, and 18.41% [5]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 268 million, 519 million, and 705 million RMB, with growth rates of 422.60%, 94.11%, and 35.85% [5]. - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.49, 2.89, and 3.92 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. Market Position - The company has established a strong brand recognition with over 10,000 stores, which is expected to enhance customer traffic [3]. - The new store formats are designed to meet community needs, offering a wider range of products at competitive prices compared to traditional retail formats [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a domestic leader in the aramid paper industry, with a global market share of approximately 15%, second only to DuPont [4][51]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a CAGR of 24% from 2018 to 2024, and a net profit CAGR of 28% during the same period [4][31]. - The aramid paper industry is strategically important in China, receiving government support since the 1970s, and is classified as a key strategic material [4][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of aramid paper and its derivatives, having established a comprehensive product system and proprietary technology [14][20]. - It is the first aramid paper manufacturer in China and has broken DuPont's monopoly in the field, making China the second country capable of producing aramid paper [15][52]. Industry Outlook - The aramid paper market is expected to grow significantly, driven by demand in various sectors such as electrical power, aerospace, and new energy [5][48]. - The domestic aramid paper consumption is projected to have a CAGR of 19.63% from 2022 to 2028, with the market size reaching approximately $585 million by 2028 [7][54]. Capacity Expansion and Product Development - The company plans to increase its aramid paper production capacity from 3,000 tons to 4,500 tons through ongoing investment projects, with full capacity expected by 2027 [6][30]. - New product development is underway, including RO membrane substrates and flash-spun non-woven fabrics, with the RO membrane project expected to commence production in the first half of 2026 [7][16]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are estimated at 409 million, 503 million, and 628 million RMB, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 20.03%, 23.02%, and 24.95% [8][9]. - Net profit projections for the same period are 100 million, 125 million, and 159 million RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 22.86%, 24.94%, and 26.97% [8][9]. Competitive Position - The company has a strong competitive edge with a gross margin improvement from 25.59% in 2020 to 37.53% in the first three quarters of 2024 [5][37]. - The company’s high gross margins are indicative of its strong market position compared to peers [42].

行业研究 2025.03.10 商 贸 零 售 行 业 周 报 天猫"3.8"首日可复美/毛戈平/绽家排名显著进阶，孩子王与头部算力算法企业合作布局 AI+ 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 刘章明 | 登记编号：S1220523050001 | | --- | --- | | 周昕 | 登记编号：S1220524100007 | | 陈佳妮 | 登记编号：S1220520080002 | | 谷寒婷 | 登记编号：S1220524030001 | | 廖捷 | | --- | | 联系人 | 行业评级 : 推 荐 | 行 | 业 | 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市公司总家数 | | | | 144 | | 总股本(亿股) | | | | 2,923.62 | | 销售收入(亿元) | | | | 21,639.47 | | 利润总额(亿元) | | | | 1,570.81 | | 行业平均 PE | | | | 24.83 | | 平均股价(元) | | | | 15.49 | 行 业 相 对 指 数 表 现 -2 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025.03.10 每 周 经 济 动 态 近期美股市场下跌原因探析 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 《10 月美国 CPI 同比料在低基数下反弹》 2024.11.11 《基建实物工作量同比降幅收窄，地产销售延 续改善——量化经济指数周报-20241103》 2024.11.05 《美国大选投票日观察指南》2024.11.03 金晗 登记编号：S1220525030005 燕翔 登记编号：S1220525030001 相 关 研 究 《特朗普交易或有止盈风险，美联储料暂停降 息进程》2024.11.17 《建材价格延续回升指向建筑需求仍在改善— —量化经济指数周报-20241117》2024.11.17 2025 年 2 月中旬以来美股三大指数出现快速调整，截至 3 月 9 日收盘，标 普 500 指数相较于 2 月中旬的高点已下跌 6.1%，纳斯达克指数下跌 9.3%， 道琼斯指数下跌 4.1%。分行业看，美股可选消费、通讯服务、信息技术行 业领跌。我们认为，近期美股市场下跌的主要原因有以下三点：美国 AI 垄 断格局被打破、美国经济增长动力减弱、特朗普关税政策引发担 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025.03.09 数 据 点 评 港股行情持续性探析 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 朱成成 | 登记编号：S1220525030004 | | --- | --- | | 燕翔 | 登记编号：S1220525030001 | | 许茹纯 | 登记编号：S1220525030003 | 相关研究 《不算差但隐忧渐显：2 月非农数据点评》 2025.03.09 《2025 年 1-2 月份进出口数据点评：增速回落， 顺差扩大》2025.03.08 《Q4 美国通胀增速料延续反弹》2024.11.14 《建材价格回升，稳增长政策见效——10 月物 价数据点评》2024.11.09 《维护联储独立性，重申对债务可持续性的担 忧》2024.11.08 《非农意外暴跌，美债利率为何最终收涨？》 2024.11.02 一是本轮 A 股、港股资产走强是发生在美股为代表的海外发达市场持续调 整环境中，独立行情非常显著，反映近期海内外投资者重估中国资产、做多 中国资产的信心在不断提升。 二是恒生科技指数为代表的科技板块在本轮行情中显著占优，deepseek、机 器人、AI 等 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the bancassurance channel, with a significant restructuring of channel dynamics following the integration of insurance and banking operations [4][6] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic policies and a recovering market, which will alleviate investment pressures for insurance companies [6] - The report anticipates a continued growth trend in profits and new business value (NBV) for insurance companies in the first quarter of 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2023, the insurance industry had a total of 19 listed companies with a total share capital of 2,040.86 million shares, generating sales revenue of 39,503.64 billion CNY and a total profit of 4,107.99 billion CNY [1] Channel Structure - The bancassurance channel's premium income share increased to 36.7%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the personal agency channel's share decreased to 50.9%, down by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The bancassurance channel has seen a cumulative increase of 6.4 percentage points since 2019, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4] Product Structure - By the end of 2023, ordinary life insurance accounted for 57.1% of total premium income, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by demand for safe investment products [5] - The report notes a decline in the share of participating insurance and health insurance, with participating insurance at 20.5% (down 6.0 percentage points) and health insurance at 20.7% (down 1.6 percentage points) [5] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, citing that the average static and dynamic price-to-earnings value (PEV) for four major insurance companies is at historically low levels, indicating limited downside risk [6] - Specific recommendations include strong endorsements for companies like Xinhua Insurance, China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life, based on their robust performance and growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longyuan Construction, predicting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [2][14]. Core Views - Longyuan Construction has updated its private placement plan, with a slight reduction in the number of shares to be issued and the total fundraising amount, indicating a stable path towards approval [4][5]. - The company is expected to significantly reduce its losses in 2024, with a projected net profit range of -400 million to -600 million RMB, compared to -1.311 billion RMB in 2023 [5][9]. - The entry of Hangzhou Investment as a major shareholder is anticipated to enhance the company's financial stability and reduce financing costs, potentially leading to a turnaround in profitability [6][5]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for Longyuan Construction is projected to recover from 9.004 billion RMB in 2023 to 9.667 billion RMB in 2024, with further growth expected to 11.001 billion RMB in 2025 and 16.147 billion RMB in 2026 [9][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 199 million RMB in 2025 and 910 million RMB in 2026, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [9][11]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.86 RMB in 2023 to 0.13 RMB in 2025 and 0.59 RMB in 2026 [9][11]. Market Position and Opportunities - Longyuan Construction's current order backlog is estimated at 8.705 billion RMB, which is relatively low compared to its annual revenue, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [6]. - The company has secured several local projects in Hangzhou, which could enhance its market presence and operational capacity [6][5]. - The upcoming private placement is expected to position Longyuan Construction as the only publicly listed platform with top-tier construction qualifications in Hangzhou, opening up further project opportunities [6].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a predicted increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [1][9][16]. Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in raw material prices, combined with the ramp-up of production at three bases, is expected to positively impact the company's performance throughout the year [1][5]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth from 2024 to 2026, driven by the expansion of its production capacity in domestic and international markets [5][6][9]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The company has shown a performance decline of 21% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. Raw Material Prices - Recent declines in key raw material prices are noted, with natural rubber averaging 16,769 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down 1.5% from Q4 2024, and carbon black at 7,547 RMB/ton, down 4.2% [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 75.5 billion, 106.5 billion, and 124.7 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 49%, 41%, and 17% respectively [6][7]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 4.6 billion, 9.1 billion, and 12.2 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year increases of 115%, 96%, and 34% [6][9]. Business Segmentation - Full steel tire revenue is forecasted to be 3.2 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.0 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 25.9%, 14.6%, and 9.4% [8]. - Half steel tire revenue is expected to reach 4.3 billion, 6.7 billion, and 8.1 billion RMB, with growth rates of 89.4%, 57.2%, and 20.7% [8]. - Engineering tire revenue is projected to be 0.6 billion, 2.4 billion, and 3.2 billion RMB, with significant growth anticipated [8]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report compares the company with peers and predicts a PE ratio of 18, 9, and 7 for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a predicted increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [1][10][16]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 2.1 to 2.36 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.45% to 72.45% [3][5]. - The Moroccan factory is anticipated to commence full production in 2025, contributing to the company's revenue growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance of -11% to +24% over the past year, compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to generate total revenues of 9.39 billion, 12.23 billion, and 14.18 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.7%, 30.3%, and 16.0% respectively [5][8]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 2.24 billion, 2.59 billion, and 3.03 billion RMB, with growth rates of 63.9%, 15.6%, and 16.8% respectively [5][8]. Business Segmentation - The semi-steel tire segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with projected revenues of 8.07 billion, 10.62 billion, and 12.37 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, accounting for 86% to 87% of total revenue [9]. - The full-steel tire segment is forecasted to generate revenues of 1.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion RMB, making up 14% to 13% of total revenue [9]. Market and Industry Outlook - The demand for semi-steel tires in overseas markets remains strong, with a supply-demand imbalance expected to drive profitability [4]. - The overall tire production in China is projected to reach 1.19 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% [4]. Valuation Comparison - The company's projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11, 10, and 8 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [10][11].

证券研究报告 | 建筑材料 | 2025年3月9日 日本建材3 0年（1 9 9 0 - 2 0 2 0）转型发展对当下建材行业投资的启示 建材非金属新材料团队 • 行业深度报告 分析师 联系人 韩宇 登记编号：S1220524070001 黄雪茹 报告摘要 1995-1996年日本地产迎B浪反弹，建材需求回升：日本房地产市场泡沫1991年破裂，1991Q3起房价跌幅持续加深，1993Q2-1995Q1房价跌幅收窄，1995Q1- 1996Q4房价跌幅维持在2%以内波动，此阶段日本房价跌幅有所放缓，在GDP增速回暖、宽松预期向好、劳动人口回升等多重因素下居民部门在1995Q2- 1996Q2期间大幅加杠杆，日本地产迎来泡沫破裂后的B浪反弹。1996年日本建筑材料需求出现显著反弹：新屋开工户数1996年同比+11.76%，大幅反弹，建 筑材料商业销售批发额同比+1.78%，地产泡沫破裂后重回正增长，相关石膏板、防水、水泥、建涂需求均有显著反弹。 日本建材企业1996年业绩复苏，耐火材料、水泥企业股价跑赢日经225：1996年日本建材多细分板块业绩有所回暖，竣工端代表TOTO（东陶）因产品属性受 地产泡沫破裂影响 ...