金融工程 研 究 2025.12.14 金 融 工 程 周 报 市场短期维持震荡，关注流动性边际变化，"综合量价"因子今年以来多空 收益 22.61% 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 曹春晓 | 登记编号：S1220522030005 | | --- | --- | | 陈泽鹏 | 登记编号：S1220524100003 | 相关研究 《市场短期有所企稳，中长期仍关注量能，"预 期惯性"组合今年以来超额收益 27.92%》 2025.12.07 《7 只双创人工智能 ETF 同日集中发行，双创 机器人 ETF、双创半导体 ETF 获集中申报》 2025.12.01 《证监会优化 ETF 注册上市审核流程，创新硬 科技 ETF 基金获批发行》2025.11.24 《四季度以来主动权益电子、有色金属仓位占 比提升，"综合量价"因子今年以来多空收益 25.76%》2025.11.23 《持续看好量价因子未来一季度表现，"预期惯 性"组合今年以来超额收益 32.42%》2025.11.16 《市场行情进入平台期，持续关注量价类因子 表现，"综合量价"因子今年以来多空收益 24.55%》 ...

行业研究 2025.12.14 机 械 设 备 行 业 周 报 周观点：看好核聚变、工程机械、出口链、机器人 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 赵璐 | 登记编号：S1220524010001 | | --- | --- | | 朱柏睿 | 登记编号：S1220525080007 | | 张其超 | 登记编号：S1220524090002 | 联系人 赵子淇 行业评级 : 推 荐 | 行 | 业 | 信 | 息 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市公司总家数 | | | | | 632 | | 总股本(亿股) | | | | | 4,356.64 | | 销售收入(亿元) | | | | 28,958.20 | | | 利润总额(亿元) | | | | | 2,150.95 | | 行业平均 PE | | | | | 106.85 | | 平均股价(元) | | | | | 27.60 | 行 业 相 对 指 数 表 现 -11% -2% 7% 16% 25% 34% 24/12/14 25/2/25 25/5/9 25 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Recommended," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 12 months [41]. Core Insights - Isostatic pressing technology is crucial for solid-state battery production, allowing precise control over key parameters such as electrode density and thickness, which enhances ionic conductivity and mechanical strength while reducing production costs [2][16]. - The report highlights the advantages of warm isostatic pressing (WIP) over cold and hot methods, particularly in terms of cost-effectiveness and higher achievable pressure, making it more suitable for solid-state battery applications [2][17]. - The report identifies key players in the isostatic pressing equipment market, with overseas companies like Quintus Technologies and Hana Technology leading, while domestic companies such as Xian Dao Intelligent and Rongqi Technology are accelerating their R&D efforts [2][36][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Isostatic Pressing Equipment - Isostatic pressing relies on Pascal's principle, ensuring uniform pressure distribution in high-pressure containers, which is essential for solid-state battery applications [2][8]. - The equipment is categorized into hot isostatic pressing (HIP), warm isostatic pressing (WIP), and cold isostatic pressing (CIP), with WIP being more suitable for solid-state batteries due to its ability to enhance ionic conductivity at lower costs [17][18]. 2. Application in Solid-State Batteries - Isostatic pressing significantly improves electrode density and reduces internal resistance, leading to enhanced battery performance [20][29]. - The technology is positioned in the middle of the solid-state battery production line, connecting the stacking machine and high-pressure formation equipment [30]. 3. Key Challenges - The report outlines challenges such as the non-continuous production cycle of isostatic pressing, which can take several minutes for pressure cycles, hindering automation in battery production lines [33]. - Cost control remains a critical issue, with the current investment per GWh for solid-state batteries being significantly higher than for liquid batteries, necessitating cost reduction strategies [33]. 4. Relevant Companies - Key international players include Quintus Technologies and Hana Technology, while domestic firms like Sichuan Lieneng and Zhonghang Jikong are making strides in the isostatic pressing equipment sector [36][37].

超长债修复行情结束了吗？ 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 债 券 周 报 债 券 研 究 2025.12.14 分析师 李清荷 登记编号：S1220525050005 相关研究 《超长债或已跌出性价比》2025.12.07 《12 月债市：抢配行情能起吗？》2025.11.30 《机构观点：债市对利空因素敏感，关注年末 宏观政策》2025.11.27 《贴息政策能替代降息吗？》2025.11.23 《政策暖风，债市仍陷震荡僵局？》2025.11.16 《公募 REITs 周度复盘：指数微跌，结构分化》 2025.11.13 ➢ 本周受政策预期与情绪影响，债市呈现"V"形走势 政府债供给超预期、货币政策超预期、中美关系变化超预期。 本周债市在政策预期驱动下上演冲高回落行情，市场情绪在宽松信号与获 利了结间快速切换。周初政治局会议与中央经济工作会议明确释放"灵活高 效运用降准降息"等宽松信号，强力提振市场情绪，推动 30 年期国债收益 率自 2.26%上方一度下行逼近 2.2%。然而，市场做多信心并不稳固，政策 利好兑现后周五遭遇强烈抛售，超长端活跃券单日大幅上行近 5bp，几乎回 吐全周涨幅 ...

行业研究 2025.12.14 北 交 所 研 究 行 业 周 报 （ 2 0 2 5 1 2 0 8 - 1 2 1 4） 创远信科拟 8.86 亿元收购微宇天导，新一轮北证 50 成分调整下周生效 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 王玉 | 登记编号：S1220521010001 | | --- | --- | | 薛怀宁 | 登记编号：S1220524100008 | 行业评级 : 推 荐 行 业 相 对 指 数 表 现 数据来源：wind 方正证券研究所 -15% -4% 7% 18% 29% 40% 24/12/14 25/2/25 25/5/9 25/7/21 25/10/2 25/12/14 北交所研究 沪深300 核心观点： 本周市场： 1）截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，本周北证 50 指数上涨 2.79%，跑赢科创 50 指数/创业板指数/沪深 300 指数 1.08/0.06/2.87pct；近一年，北证 50 指数上涨 17.46%,跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.74%，跑输科创 50 指数/创业板指 数 15.98/21.90pct。 从流动性表现 ...

行业研究 2025.12.14 机 械 设 备 行 业 事 件 点 评 报 告 五年规划首提"能源强国"，核聚变招标大潮揭榜，多项目启动在即 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 李鲁靖 | 登记编号：S1220523090002 | | --- | --- | | 赵璐 | 登记编号：S1220524010001 | | 刘明洋 | 登记编号：S1220524010002 | | 黄凯伦 | 登记编号：S1220524090001 | 行业评级 : 推 荐 | 行 | 业 | 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市公司总家数 | | | | 632 | | 总股本(亿股) | | | | 4,356.64 | | 销售收入(亿元) | | | | 28,958.20 | | 利润总额(亿元) | | | | 2,150.95 | | 行业平均 PE | | | | 106.85 | | 平均股价(元) | | | | 27.60 | 行 业 相 对 指 数 表 现 -11% -2% 7% 16% 25% 34% 24/12/14 ...

Overall Research - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a year-to-date high of 3456 points as of June 25, 2025, marking three consecutive days of gains [3][4]. Key Points - The low overall valuation of A-shares presents a good investment cost-performance ratio, with the Wande All A Index's price-to-earnings ratio at 19.8x and the CSI 300 Index at 13.2x as of June 25, 2025 [3][4]. - The equity risk premium for the Wande All A Index stands at 3.4%, which is at the 70.3 percentile since 2010, indicating a historically high risk premium due to the continuous decline in risk-free interest rates [3][4]. - External risks are gradually dissipating, with positive factors accumulating, such as the resolution of tariff impacts and the implementation of more proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to enhance domestic economic resilience [3][4]. - The quality of listed companies in China is steadily improving, with significant increases in R&D spending from CNY 585.6 billion in 2018 to CNY 1.5593 trillion in 2023, reflecting a strong commitment to high-quality development [4]. - The total dividend payout by A-share listed companies has increased from less than CNY 300 billion in 2010 to over CNY 1 trillion in 2019, and is projected to exceed CNY 1.9 trillion in 2024, indicating a positive trend in investor returns [4]. - The report suggests that sectors such as brokerage firms, the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and the Hang Seng Tech Index may have potential for phase-wise gains following the index's new high [5]. - Brokerage firms are highlighted as "bull market leaders," likely to yield excess returns as the market strengthens, supported by active trading volumes [5]. - The report emphasizes that the technology innovation theme remains crucial in the capital market, with the Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext Index showing relatively lagging performance since the beginning of the year, indicating potential future opportunities [5]. - The current liquidity environment in Hong Kong is favorable, with an ongoing overseas interest rate cut cycle and continuous inflow of southbound funds, making the Hang Seng Tech Index representative of emerging industry trends [5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a forecasted increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [2][18]. Core Viewpoints - The company's core business remains strong, with operational revenue of 2.964 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.02%, despite a significant decline in construction revenue by 95.42% due to fewer construction projects [5]. - The company has successfully launched the Jingxi project, increasing its operational capacity to over 40,000 tons per day, and processed 14.38 million tons of municipal waste in 2024, a 6.96% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company is expanding its green energy trading and collaborative business efforts, achieving notable results in projects like mobile energy storage heating and biogas purification [6]. - A dividend plan has been announced, with a cash dividend of 0.1 RMB per share for the interim and a proposed annual dividend of 0.20 RMB per share, reflecting the company's confidence in its future [7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.399 billion RMB, a decrease of 14% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 585 million RMB, down 7% year-on-year [4][10]. - The company expects revenue growth in the coming years, projecting revenues of 3.542 billion RMB, 3.704 billion RMB, and 3.880 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 668 million RMB, 714 million RMB, and 768 million RMB [8][10]. - The company's gross margin improved to 45.44%, an increase of 6.92 percentage points year-on-year, due to optimized revenue structure and cost control [5]. Comparative Analysis - The company's 2025 PE ratio is lower than the average of comparable companies in the waste treatment sector, indicating potential for valuation recovery [11].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1][8][27] Core Views - The report expresses optimism about the mid-term outlook for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) due to strong supply constraints and a return of demand in the regular market [5][8] - The company has shown resilience with a significant increase in net profit in Q4, indicating strong operational performance [3][4][7] Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 25.8 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while Q4 revenue was 6.5 billion RMB, down 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The net profit for the year was 5.1 billion RMB, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit reaching 1.74 billion RMB, up 61.1% year-on-year and 99.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.08 billion RMB, representing a payout ratio of 40.7% [3] Segment Performance - In the oil transportation segment, Q4 revenue was 2.22 billion RMB, down 8.5% year-on-year, with net profit at 570 million RMB, down 22% year-on-year but up 49% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The dry bulk shipping segment saw Q4 revenue of 1.87 billion RMB, down 4.5% year-on-year, with net profit at 240 million RMB, down 27% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The container shipping segment experienced a significant profit increase in Q4, with revenue of 1.38 billion RMB, down 7% year-on-year, but net profit surged to 840 million RMB, up 257% year-on-year and 263% quarter-on-quarter [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 6.48 billion, 7.66 billion, and 8.18 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [8][9] - The report highlights the company's valuation attractiveness, suggesting a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on a 40% payout ratio [8]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a forecasted increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 14% driven by dual engines, with a global expansion strategy boosting its automotive business [1]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 27.947 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.099 billion RMB, up 6.10% year-on-year [3][4]. - The automotive parts segment generated revenue of 11.387 billion RMB, reflecting a 14.86% year-on-year growth, while the refrigeration and air conditioning parts segment contributed 16.561 billion RMB, growing by 13.09% [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s gross profit for 2024 was 7.678 billion RMB, with an overall gross margin of 27.47%. The refrigeration segment accounted for 4.530 billion RMB of gross profit, while the automotive segment contributed 3.148 billion RMB [4]. - The company’s operating expenses included sales expenses of 726 million RMB (up 9.50% year-on-year) and management expenses of 1.767 billion RMB (up 19.72% year-on-year) [5]. - Research and development expenses increased by 23.25% year-on-year to 1.352 billion RMB, representing a research expense ratio of 4.84% [5]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.818 billion RMB, 37.179 billion RMB, and 47.107 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 3.741 billion RMB, 4.363 billion RMB, and 5.163 billion RMB [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.00 RMB, 1.17 RMB, and 1.38 RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].