方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 朱成成 | 登记编号：S1220525030004 | | --- | --- | | 燕翔 | 登记编号：S1220525030001 | | 许茹纯 | 登记编号：S1220525030003 | 宏 观 研 究 2025.03.09 数 据 点 评 2 月份通胀数据点评：CPI 回落，PPI 改善 从 CPI 主要分项来看，2 月份价格环比上涨细分项减少，同比增速涨跌参 半。环比来看，2 月份衣着价格环比下跌 0.1%，跌幅相比上月收窄。其他用 品和服务价格环比增长 0.7%，前值为 1.6%。生活用品及服务价格环比下跌 0.1%，前值为 0.7%。食品烟酒价格环比下降 0.2%，前值为 0.9%。交通和通 信价格环比下降 0.4%，增速降至负区间。同比来看，2 月份其他用品和服务 价格同比上涨 6.5%，增速依然维持较高位，且相比增速相比上月持续回升。 交通和通信价格同比下降 2.5%，前值为-0.6%。 《2025 年 1-2 月份进出口数据点评：增速回落， 顺差扩大》2025.03.08 《Q4 美国通胀增速料延续反弹》2024.11 ...

方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 公司研究 2025.03.07 航天彩虹（ 0 0 2 3 8 9） 公司跟踪报告 彩虹系列无人机内销军贸两开花，导弹业务打造第二增长曲线 | 李鲁靖 | 登记编号：S1220523090002 | | --- | --- | | 刘明洋 | 登记编号：S1220524010002 | | 黄凯伦 | 登记编号：S1220524090001 | 推 荐 ( 首 次 ) | 公 | 司 | 信 | 息 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | | | 航空装备Ⅲ | | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | | | | 21.01 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | | | | 208.76 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | | | 24.19/12.34 | | 相 关 研 究 公司介绍：公司作为国内领先的无人机及新材料企业，其无人机业务以彩虹 系列为核心，涵盖中高空长航时无人机及机载武器，内销与军贸市场均表现 强劲。公司是国内唯一兼具中大型无人机和机载武器研制能力的企业，其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1] Core Views - In February 2025, Yutong Bus achieved a bus sales volume of 1,571 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 38.4%. The production volume was 1,578 units, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 38.4% [3][4] - The company is expected to see a peak in deliveries in March due to the concentration of domestic and international orders, supported by the ongoing domestic bus replacement policy [4] - Yutong Bus has successfully delivered a batch of customized models to Greece, enhancing its recognition in the overseas market. The new electric buses are expected to significantly reduce operational costs for local bus companies [5] - The company has integrated its existing cockpit system with the DeepSeek reasoning model, enhancing the intelligent interaction experience for drivers and positioning itself as a leader in the smart vehicle sector [6] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Yutong Bus are as follows: 2024 expected revenue of 357.0 billion, 2025 at 422.7 billion, and 2026 at 465.5 billion. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 41.7 billion, 50.0 billion, and 57.7 billion for the same years respectively [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.82 in 2023 to 2.60 in 2026, indicating strong growth potential [7][8] - The report highlights a significant improvement in return on equity (ROE), expected to rise from 13.05% in 2023 to 19.70% in 2026 [7][8]

证券研究报告 | 国防军工 | 2025年03月04日 军 工 / 新兴产业团队 • 行业深度报告 国内外可控核聚变融资创新高，我国可控核聚变建设元年或正式开启 分析师 李鲁靖 登记编号：S1220523090002 刘明洋 登记编号：S1220524010002 黄凯伦 登记编号：S1220524090001 摘要 建议关注： 2 国内外核聚变政策陆续出台，大力推进可控核聚变产业化。国务院国资委将重点支持相关企业开展关键技术攻关，力争在 核聚变反应堆设计、材料研发、等离子体控制等方面取得突破性进展。同时，还将推动企业加强与高校、科研院所的合作， 加快核聚变技术从实验室走向产业化的步伐。2024年7月，中国在核聚变领域的发展路线规划显示，预计在2050年前后建 成聚变商用电站，实现聚变堆商用发电，使聚变能源惠及千家万户。 JT-60SA进行一系列技术升级，ITER设备测试进展顺利。2025年2月，日本与欧盟合作的JT-60SA核聚变实验堆项目取得了 重大进展，为全球能源生产带来了新的希望。2025年1月20日，ITER项目在关键设备测试和调试方面取得了重要进展，尤 其是针对其复杂的低温泵系统和真空容器的准备工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 12 months [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its online, overseas, and Spobz businesses, with the JD Outlet business emerging as a new growth driver [7]. - The JD Outlet store in Wuxi, which opened on September 25, 2024, has a favorable location and is expected to attract significant customer traffic, with daily footfall exceeding 30,000 and sales surpassing 5 million RMB during the National Day holiday [9][10]. - The store operates primarily on a consignment model, which minimizes inventory risk, and is projected to achieve a profit margin of around 20% [6][15]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion RMB in 2024 and 2.8 billion RMB in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x and 13x [7]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a slight decline in 2024, followed by a recovery with projected growth rates of 13.86% in 2025 and 14.31% in 2026 [8][24]. - The company's total revenue for 2023 is reported at 21.53 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 15.98% [8]. Business Model and Strategy - The JD Outlet stores are strategically located in second to fifth-tier cities, with an average store size of 3,000 to 5,000 square meters, and are expected to generate annual sales in the tens of millions [6][21]. - The company has established partnerships with major shopping mall operators, enhancing its expansion potential across various regions [6][21]. - The operational model includes a low-cost structure, with minimal staffing and a focus on self-service shopping experiences [6][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a forecasted increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant quarter-on-quarter recovery in Q4 2024, driven by innovation and expansion into overseas markets. The revenue for Q4 2024 reached 33.46 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.90% but a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 106.43% [3][6]. - The company is focusing on increasing R&D investments and optimizing operational efficiency, which is expected to drive a return to growth. New innovative products, such as silicon carbide MRI and zero-noise DSA, are anticipated to create new growth opportunities [6][5]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 103.00 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9.73%, with a net profit of 12.62 billion RMB, down 36.08% year-on-year. However, projections for 2025 and 2026 indicate a recovery with expected revenues of 124.13 billion RMB and 150.58 billion RMB, respectively [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 103.00 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth forecast of 20.51% for 2025 and 21.31% for 2026 [5][10]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 12.62 billion RMB, with a significant recovery projected for the following years, reaching 18.46 billion RMB in 2025 and 23.72 billion RMB in 2026 [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.53 RMB in 2024, increasing to 2.24 RMB in 2025 and 2.88 RMB in 2026 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [2][12]. Core Views - The company has exceeded market expectations in Q4 2024, with a notable improvement in profitability and contributions from the automotive business [4][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the projection industry, with dual-brand strategies targeting different technology routes and actively pursuing overseas market expansion [7]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to enhance profitability, supported by improved product margins and reduced marketing expenses [5][7]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.414 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.02% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 122 million yuan, an increase of 1.14% [4][8]. - In Q4 2024, revenues were 1.132 billion yuan, with a net profit of 162 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 372.4% [4][5]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 improved to 14.33%, up 11.30 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product upgrades and cost optimizations [5]. Business Expansion - The automotive business has shown substantial progress, with the company becoming a designated supplier for six projects with four automotive manufacturers and one parts supplier [6]. - The automotive segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with at least six projects anticipated to enter mass production in 2025 [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 379 million yuan and 506 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.41 yuan and 7.23 yuan [7][8]. - Revenue projections indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 4.044 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.844 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.45% and 19.79% [8][9].

行业研究 2025.03.02 农 林 牧 渔 行 业 周 报 一号文件提出"发展农业新质生产力"，"推进生物育种产业化" 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 邱星皓 登记编号：S1220524070004 联系人 郭翀宇 行业评级 : 推 荐 | 行 | 业 | 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市公司总家数 | | | | 128 | | 总股本(亿股) | | | | 1,638.79 | | 销售收入(亿元) | | | | 19,031.11 | | 利润总额(亿元) | | | | -126.30 | | 行业平均 PE | | | | 25.06 | | 平均股价(元) | | | | 9.83 | 行 业 相 对 指 数 表 现 -18% -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 24/3/2 24/5/14 24/7/26 24/10/7 24/12/19 25/3/2 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究 《标肥价差推进二育积极入场》2025.02.24 《生猪价格震荡，仔猪价格小幅回调》 2025.02.17 《节后 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The dexterous hand is a crucial hardware module for humanoid robots, with integrated and multi-degree-of-freedom development expected to open a market worth nearly 43 billion yuan [4][30] - The market for dexterous hands is projected to reach approximately 428 billion yuan with a million units sold, driven by advancements in technology and cost reductions [30] Summary by Sections 1. Dexterous Hand as an Independent Hardware Module - The dexterous hand serves as an important interface for humanoid robots, comprising three main sub-modules: drive, transmission, and perception [12][14] - The development of dexterous hands has evolved towards multi-degree-of-freedom, integration, and biomimicry since the 1970s, with applications in various fields such as medical, aerospace, and industrial [15][18] 2. Drive System - The main drive solution is electric, with hollow cup motors and brushless gear motors being the primary choices [5][33] - Electric motor drive is the most widely used solution, providing stable output torque and high precision [44] 3. Transmission System - Tendon transmission is the mainstream solution, with micro-screws and micro-harmonic reducers accelerating industrial progress [5][30] - The advantages of tendon transmission include flexibility and distance transmission, which are expected to be widely adopted as material performance improves [5][30] 4. Perception System - The perception system is essential for the intelligence of dexterous hands, with internal and external sensors providing feedback on the hand's state and the external environment [6][30] - The development of flexible tactile sensors is progressing rapidly, with domestic companies actively involved in research and development [6][30] 5. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include those involved in motors (e.g., Mingzhi Electric, Zhaowei Electromechanical), reducers (e.g., Green Harmonic, Shuanghuan Transmission), screws (e.g., Hengli Hydraulic, Beite Technology), tendons (e.g., Daye Co.), and sensors (e.g., Keli Sensor, Donghua Testing) [6][30]