宏 观 研 究 2025.03.09 数 据 点 评 港股行情持续性探析 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 朱成成 | 登记编号：S1220525030004 | | --- | --- | | 燕翔 | 登记编号：S1220525030001 | | 许茹纯 | 登记编号：S1220525030003 | 相关研究 《不算差但隐忧渐显：2 月非农数据点评》 2025.03.09 《2025 年 1-2 月份进出口数据点评：增速回落， 顺差扩大》2025.03.08 《Q4 美国通胀增速料延续反弹》2024.11.14 《建材价格回升，稳增长政策见效——10 月物 价数据点评》2024.11.09 《维护联储独立性，重申对债务可持续性的担 忧》2024.11.08 《非农意外暴跌，美债利率为何最终收涨？》 2024.11.02 一是本轮 A 股、港股资产走强是发生在美股为代表的海外发达市场持续调 整环境中，独立行情非常显著，反映近期海内外投资者重估中国资产、做多 中国资产的信心在不断提升。 二是恒生科技指数为代表的科技板块在本轮行情中显著占优，deepseek、机 器人、AI 等 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the bancassurance channel, with a significant restructuring of channel dynamics following the integration of insurance and banking operations [4][6] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic policies and a recovering market, which will alleviate investment pressures for insurance companies [6] - The report anticipates a continued growth trend in profits and new business value (NBV) for insurance companies in the first quarter of 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2023, the insurance industry had a total of 19 listed companies with a total share capital of 2,040.86 million shares, generating sales revenue of 39,503.64 billion CNY and a total profit of 4,107.99 billion CNY [1] Channel Structure - The bancassurance channel's premium income share increased to 36.7%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the personal agency channel's share decreased to 50.9%, down by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The bancassurance channel has seen a cumulative increase of 6.4 percentage points since 2019, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4] Product Structure - By the end of 2023, ordinary life insurance accounted for 57.1% of total premium income, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by demand for safe investment products [5] - The report notes a decline in the share of participating insurance and health insurance, with participating insurance at 20.5% (down 6.0 percentage points) and health insurance at 20.7% (down 1.6 percentage points) [5] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, citing that the average static and dynamic price-to-earnings value (PEV) for four major insurance companies is at historically low levels, indicating limited downside risk [6] - Specific recommendations include strong endorsements for companies like Xinhua Insurance, China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Life, based on their robust performance and growth potential [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Longyuan Construction, predicting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [2][14]. Core Views - Longyuan Construction has updated its private placement plan, with a slight reduction in the number of shares to be issued and the total fundraising amount, indicating a stable path towards approval [4][5]. - The company is expected to significantly reduce its losses in 2024, with a projected net profit range of -400 million to -600 million RMB, compared to -1.311 billion RMB in 2023 [5][9]. - The entry of Hangzhou Investment as a major shareholder is anticipated to enhance the company's financial stability and reduce financing costs, potentially leading to a turnaround in profitability [6][5]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for Longyuan Construction is projected to recover from 9.004 billion RMB in 2023 to 9.667 billion RMB in 2024, with further growth expected to 11.001 billion RMB in 2025 and 16.147 billion RMB in 2026 [9][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 199 million RMB in 2025 and 910 million RMB in 2026, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [9][11]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.86 RMB in 2023 to 0.13 RMB in 2025 and 0.59 RMB in 2026 [9][11]. Market Position and Opportunities - Longyuan Construction's current order backlog is estimated at 8.705 billion RMB, which is relatively low compared to its annual revenue, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [6]. - The company has secured several local projects in Hangzhou, which could enhance its market presence and operational capacity [6][5]. - The upcoming private placement is expected to position Longyuan Construction as the only publicly listed platform with top-tier construction qualifications in Hangzhou, opening up further project opportunities [6].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a predicted increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [1][9][16]. Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in raw material prices, combined with the ramp-up of production at three bases, is expected to positively impact the company's performance throughout the year [1][5]. - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth from 2024 to 2026, driven by the expansion of its production capacity in domestic and international markets [5][6][9]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The company has shown a performance decline of 21% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2]. Raw Material Prices - Recent declines in key raw material prices are noted, with natural rubber averaging 16,769 RMB/ton in Q1 2025, down 1.5% from Q4 2024, and carbon black at 7,547 RMB/ton, down 4.2% [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 75.5 billion, 106.5 billion, and 124.7 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 49%, 41%, and 17% respectively [6][7]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 4.6 billion, 9.1 billion, and 12.2 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year increases of 115%, 96%, and 34% [6][9]. Business Segmentation - Full steel tire revenue is forecasted to be 3.2 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.0 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 25.9%, 14.6%, and 9.4% [8]. - Half steel tire revenue is expected to reach 4.3 billion, 6.7 billion, and 8.1 billion RMB, with growth rates of 89.4%, 57.2%, and 20.7% [8]. - Engineering tire revenue is projected to be 0.6 billion, 2.4 billion, and 3.2 billion RMB, with significant growth anticipated [8]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report compares the company with peers and predicts a PE ratio of 18, 9, and 7 for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a predicted increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [1][10][16]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 2.1 to 2.36 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.45% to 72.45% [3][5]. - The Moroccan factory is anticipated to commence full production in 2025, contributing to the company's revenue growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Historical Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance of -11% to +24% over the past year, compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to generate total revenues of 9.39 billion, 12.23 billion, and 14.18 billion RMB for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.7%, 30.3%, and 16.0% respectively [5][8]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 2.24 billion, 2.59 billion, and 3.03 billion RMB, with growth rates of 63.9%, 15.6%, and 16.8% respectively [5][8]. Business Segmentation - The semi-steel tire segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with projected revenues of 8.07 billion, 10.62 billion, and 12.37 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, accounting for 86% to 87% of total revenue [9]. - The full-steel tire segment is forecasted to generate revenues of 1.3 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.8 billion RMB, making up 14% to 13% of total revenue [9]. Market and Industry Outlook - The demand for semi-steel tires in overseas markets remains strong, with a supply-demand imbalance expected to drive profitability [4]. - The overall tire production in China is projected to reach 1.19 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% [4]. Valuation Comparison - The company's projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11, 10, and 8 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [10][11].

证券研究报告 | 建筑材料 | 2025年3月9日 日本建材3 0年（1 9 9 0 - 2 0 2 0）转型发展对当下建材行业投资的启示 建材非金属新材料团队 • 行业深度报告 分析师 联系人 韩宇 登记编号：S1220524070001 黄雪茹 报告摘要 1995-1996年日本地产迎B浪反弹，建材需求回升：日本房地产市场泡沫1991年破裂，1991Q3起房价跌幅持续加深，1993Q2-1995Q1房价跌幅收窄，1995Q1- 1996Q4房价跌幅维持在2%以内波动，此阶段日本房价跌幅有所放缓，在GDP增速回暖、宽松预期向好、劳动人口回升等多重因素下居民部门在1995Q2- 1996Q2期间大幅加杠杆，日本地产迎来泡沫破裂后的B浪反弹。1996年日本建筑材料需求出现显著反弹：新屋开工户数1996年同比+11.76%，大幅反弹，建 筑材料商业销售批发额同比+1.78%，地产泡沫破裂后重回正增长，相关石膏板、防水、水泥、建涂需求均有显著反弹。 日本建材企业1996年业绩复苏，耐火材料、水泥企业股价跑赢日经225：1996年日本建材多细分板块业绩有所回暖，竣工端代表TOTO（东陶）因产品属性受 地产泡沫破裂影响 ...

方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 | 朱成成 | 登记编号：S1220525030004 | | --- | --- | | 燕翔 | 登记编号：S1220525030001 | | 许茹纯 | 登记编号：S1220525030003 | 宏 观 研 究 2025.03.09 数 据 点 评 2 月份通胀数据点评：CPI 回落，PPI 改善 从 CPI 主要分项来看，2 月份价格环比上涨细分项减少，同比增速涨跌参 半。环比来看，2 月份衣着价格环比下跌 0.1%，跌幅相比上月收窄。其他用 品和服务价格环比增长 0.7%，前值为 1.6%。生活用品及服务价格环比下跌 0.1%，前值为 0.7%。食品烟酒价格环比下降 0.2%，前值为 0.9%。交通和通 信价格环比下降 0.4%，增速降至负区间。同比来看，2 月份其他用品和服务 价格同比上涨 6.5%，增速依然维持较高位，且相比增速相比上月持续回升。 交通和通信价格同比下降 2.5%，前值为-0.6%。 《2025 年 1-2 月份进出口数据点评：增速回落， 顺差扩大》2025.03.08 《Q4 美国通胀增速料延续反弹》2024.11 ...

方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 公司研究 2025.03.07 航天彩虹（ 0 0 2 3 8 9） 公司跟踪报告 彩虹系列无人机内销军贸两开花，导弹业务打造第二增长曲线 | 李鲁靖 | 登记编号：S1220523090002 | | --- | --- | | 刘明洋 | 登记编号：S1220524010002 | | 黄凯伦 | 登记编号：S1220524090001 | 推 荐 ( 首 次 ) | 公 | 司 | 信 | 息 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | | | | 航空装备Ⅲ | | | 最新收盘价(人民币/元) | | | | | 21.01 | | 总市值(亿)(元) | | | | | 208.76 | | 52 周最高/最低价(元) | | | | 24.19/12.34 | | 相 关 研 究 公司介绍：公司作为国内领先的无人机及新材料企业，其无人机业务以彩虹 系列为核心，涵盖中高空长航时无人机及机载武器，内销与军贸市场均表现 强劲。公司是国内唯一兼具中大型无人机和机载武器研制能力的企业，其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yutong Bus (600066) [1] Core Views - In February 2025, Yutong Bus achieved a bus sales volume of 1,571 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 38.4%. The production volume was 1,578 units, with a year-on-year increase of 19.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 38.4% [3][4] - The company is expected to see a peak in deliveries in March due to the concentration of domestic and international orders, supported by the ongoing domestic bus replacement policy [4] - Yutong Bus has successfully delivered a batch of customized models to Greece, enhancing its recognition in the overseas market. The new electric buses are expected to significantly reduce operational costs for local bus companies [5] - The company has integrated its existing cockpit system with the DeepSeek reasoning model, enhancing the intelligent interaction experience for drivers and positioning itself as a leader in the smart vehicle sector [6] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Yutong Bus are as follows: 2024 expected revenue of 357.0 billion, 2025 at 422.7 billion, and 2026 at 465.5 billion. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 41.7 billion, 50.0 billion, and 57.7 billion for the same years respectively [6][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.82 in 2023 to 2.60 in 2026, indicating strong growth potential [7][8] - The report highlights a significant improvement in return on equity (ROE), expected to rise from 13.05% in 2023 to 19.70% in 2026 [7][8]

证券研究报告 | 国防军工 | 2025年03月04日 军 工 / 新兴产业团队 • 行业深度报告 国内外可控核聚变融资创新高，我国可控核聚变建设元年或正式开启 分析师 李鲁靖 登记编号：S1220523090002 刘明洋 登记编号：S1220524010002 黄凯伦 登记编号：S1220524090001 摘要 建议关注： 2 国内外核聚变政策陆续出台，大力推进可控核聚变产业化。国务院国资委将重点支持相关企业开展关键技术攻关，力争在 核聚变反应堆设计、材料研发、等离子体控制等方面取得突破性进展。同时，还将推动企业加强与高校、科研院所的合作， 加快核聚变技术从实验室走向产业化的步伐。2024年7月，中国在核聚变领域的发展路线规划显示，预计在2050年前后建 成聚变商用电站，实现聚变堆商用发电，使聚变能源惠及千家万户。 JT-60SA进行一系列技术升级，ITER设备测试进展顺利。2025年2月，日本与欧盟合作的JT-60SA核聚变实验堆项目取得了 重大进展，为全球能源生产带来了新的希望。2025年1月20日，ITER项目在关键设备测试和调试方面取得了重要进展，尤 其是针对其复杂的低温泵系统和真空容器的准备工 ...