证券研究报告 | 国防军工 | 2025年03月04日 军 工 / 新兴产业团队 • 行业深度报告 国内外可控核聚变融资创新高，我国可控核聚变建设元年或正式开启 分析师 李鲁靖 登记编号：S1220523090002 刘明洋 登记编号：S1220524010002 黄凯伦 登记编号：S1220524090001 摘要 建议关注： 2 国内外核聚变政策陆续出台，大力推进可控核聚变产业化。国务院国资委将重点支持相关企业开展关键技术攻关，力争在 核聚变反应堆设计、材料研发、等离子体控制等方面取得突破性进展。同时，还将推动企业加强与高校、科研院所的合作， 加快核聚变技术从实验室走向产业化的步伐。2024年7月，中国在核聚变领域的发展路线规划显示，预计在2050年前后建 成聚变商用电站，实现聚变堆商用发电，使聚变能源惠及千家万户。 JT-60SA进行一系列技术升级，ITER设备测试进展顺利。2025年2月，日本与欧盟合作的JT-60SA核聚变实验堆项目取得了 重大进展，为全球能源生产带来了新的希望。2025年1月20日，ITER项目在关键设备测试和调试方面取得了重要进展，尤 其是针对其复杂的低温泵系统和真空容器的准备工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 12 months [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its online, overseas, and Spobz businesses, with the JD Outlet business emerging as a new growth driver [7]. - The JD Outlet store in Wuxi, which opened on September 25, 2024, has a favorable location and is expected to attract significant customer traffic, with daily footfall exceeding 30,000 and sales surpassing 5 million RMB during the National Day holiday [9][10]. - The store operates primarily on a consignment model, which minimizes inventory risk, and is projected to achieve a profit margin of around 20% [6][15]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.2 billion RMB in 2024 and 2.8 billion RMB in 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x and 13x [7]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a slight decline in 2024, followed by a recovery with projected growth rates of 13.86% in 2025 and 14.31% in 2026 [8][24]. - The company's total revenue for 2023 is reported at 21.53 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 15.98% [8]. Business Model and Strategy - The JD Outlet stores are strategically located in second to fifth-tier cities, with an average store size of 3,000 to 5,000 square meters, and are expected to generate annual sales in the tens of millions [6][21]. - The company has established partnerships with major shopping mall operators, enhancing its expansion potential across various regions [6][21]. - The operational model includes a low-cost structure, with minimal staffing and a focus on self-service shopping experiences [6][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a forecasted increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant quarter-on-quarter recovery in Q4 2024, driven by innovation and expansion into overseas markets. The revenue for Q4 2024 reached 33.46 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.90% but a substantial quarter-on-quarter increase of 106.43% [3][6]. - The company is focusing on increasing R&D investments and optimizing operational efficiency, which is expected to drive a return to growth. New innovative products, such as silicon carbide MRI and zero-noise DSA, are anticipated to create new growth opportunities [6][5]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 103.00 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 9.73%, with a net profit of 12.62 billion RMB, down 36.08% year-on-year. However, projections for 2025 and 2026 indicate a recovery with expected revenues of 124.13 billion RMB and 150.58 billion RMB, respectively [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 103.00 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth forecast of 20.51% for 2025 and 21.31% for 2026 [5][10]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 12.62 billion RMB, with a significant recovery projected for the following years, reaching 18.46 billion RMB in 2025 and 23.72 billion RMB in 2026 [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.53 RMB in 2024, increasing to 2.24 RMB in 2025 and 2.88 RMB in 2026 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [2][12]. Core Views - The company has exceeded market expectations in Q4 2024, with a notable improvement in profitability and contributions from the automotive business [4][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the projection industry, with dual-brand strategies targeting different technology routes and actively pursuing overseas market expansion [7]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to enhance profitability, supported by improved product margins and reduced marketing expenses [5][7]. Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.414 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.02% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 122 million yuan, an increase of 1.14% [4][8]. - In Q4 2024, revenues were 1.132 billion yuan, with a net profit of 162 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 372.4% [4][5]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 improved to 14.33%, up 11.30 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product upgrades and cost optimizations [5]. Business Expansion - The automotive business has shown substantial progress, with the company becoming a designated supplier for six projects with four automotive manufacturers and one parts supplier [6]. - The automotive segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with at least six projects anticipated to enter mass production in 2025 [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 379 million yuan and 506 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.41 yuan and 7.23 yuan [7][8]. - Revenue projections indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 4.044 billion yuan in 2025 and 4.844 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.45% and 19.79% [8][9].

行业研究 2025.03.02 农 林 牧 渔 行 业 周 报 一号文件提出"发展农业新质生产力"，"推进生物育种产业化" 方 正 证 券 研 究 所 证 券 研 究 报 告 分析师 邱星皓 登记编号：S1220524070004 联系人 郭翀宇 行业评级 : 推 荐 | 行 | 业 | 信 | 息 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市公司总家数 | | | | 128 | | 总股本(亿股) | | | | 1,638.79 | | 销售收入(亿元) | | | | 19,031.11 | | 利润总额(亿元) | | | | -126.30 | | 行业平均 PE | | | | 25.06 | | 平均股价(元) | | | | 9.83 | 行 业 相 对 指 数 表 现 -18% -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 24/3/2 24/5/14 24/7/26 24/10/7 24/12/19 25/3/2 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究 《标肥价差推进二育积极入场》2025.02.24 《生猪价格震荡，仔猪价格小幅回调》 2025.02.17 《节后 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The dexterous hand is a crucial hardware module for humanoid robots, with integrated and multi-degree-of-freedom development expected to open a market worth nearly 43 billion yuan [4][30] - The market for dexterous hands is projected to reach approximately 428 billion yuan with a million units sold, driven by advancements in technology and cost reductions [30] Summary by Sections 1. Dexterous Hand as an Independent Hardware Module - The dexterous hand serves as an important interface for humanoid robots, comprising three main sub-modules: drive, transmission, and perception [12][14] - The development of dexterous hands has evolved towards multi-degree-of-freedom, integration, and biomimicry since the 1970s, with applications in various fields such as medical, aerospace, and industrial [15][18] 2. Drive System - The main drive solution is electric, with hollow cup motors and brushless gear motors being the primary choices [5][33] - Electric motor drive is the most widely used solution, providing stable output torque and high precision [44] 3. Transmission System - Tendon transmission is the mainstream solution, with micro-screws and micro-harmonic reducers accelerating industrial progress [5][30] - The advantages of tendon transmission include flexibility and distance transmission, which are expected to be widely adopted as material performance improves [5][30] 4. Perception System - The perception system is essential for the intelligence of dexterous hands, with internal and external sensors providing feedback on the hand's state and the external environment [6][30] - The development of flexible tactile sensors is progressing rapidly, with domestic companies actively involved in research and development [6][30] 5. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include those involved in motors (e.g., Mingzhi Electric, Zhaowei Electromechanical), reducers (e.g., Green Harmonic, Shuanghuan Transmission), screws (e.g., Hengli Hydraulic, Beite Technology), tendons (e.g., Daye Co.), and sensors (e.g., Keli Sensor, Donghua Testing) [6][30]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as an innovative biopharmaceutical enterprise with a comprehensive industry chain layout, focusing on ADCs, antibodies, and recombinant protein drugs, primarily targeting oncology and age-related diseases [5][17]. - The ADC technology platform is advanced, with the Nectin-4 ADC expected to become a best-in-class (BIC) product, showing promising clinical results compared to existing therapies [6][9]. - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative drugs and biosimilars, with significant revenue growth projected from 2024 to 2026 [8][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2017 and went public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2022, focusing on the research, production, and sales of biopharmaceuticals [17]. - It has 16 products at various stages, including 12 innovative products and 4 biosimilars, with 3 products already on the market [17]. ADC Technology Platform - The company has developed a next-generation ADC targeted conjugation technology platform (IDDCTM), which includes proprietary technologies that enhance drug stability and efficacy [6][28]. - The Nectin-4 ADC (9MW2821) is the fastest progressing ADC in China for treating urothelial carcinoma, currently in Phase III clinical trials [6][9]. Innovative Product Pipeline - The company is advancing multiple differentiated targets, including 9MW1911 (for COPD) and 9MW3011 (for blood disorders), with significant global development progress [7][30]. - The biosimilars have begun commercializing, contributing to cash flow for innovative drug development [7][30]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 2.09 billion, 8.51 billion, and 15.14 billion RMB, respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [8][10]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit margin improvement, with net losses decreasing from 1.09 billion RMB in 2024 to 258 million RMB in 2026 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, predicting a relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion by establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Thailand and investing approximately 220 million RMB (or 30 million USD) to build a production base focused on konjac and potato chips [3][4]. - The Southeast Asian market is seen as a significant growth opportunity due to its population of nearly 700 million and increasing consumer demand, which aligns with the company's strategy to leverage its supply chain advantages [4]. - The company has established seven food production and processing factories in Southeast Asia, including the largest mango dry processing factory in Cambodia, indicating a strong commitment to regional supply chain development [4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 5.25 billion RMB, 6.66 billion RMB, and 8.23 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.61%, 26.77%, and 23.66% [5][6]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is 657 million RMB, 846 million RMB, and 1.07 billion RMB, with growth rates of 29.97%, 28.67%, and 26.42% [5][6]. - The report forecasts an EPS of 2.41 RMB, 3.10 RMB, and 3.92 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a positive trend in earnings per share [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the power supply, liquid cooling, and supporting electrical equipment sectors within the data center industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing value and redundancy in power supply configurations for data centers, particularly with the rise of AI computing demands [3]. - It emphasizes the transition from traditional data centers to AI Data Centers (AIDC), which require higher power densities and specialized cooling solutions [8]. - The liquid cooling market is expected to grow significantly, with cold plate cooling becoming mainstream and immersion cooling waiting for further development [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Supply: Growth Direction from Inside to Outside the Cabinet - The report notes that the value of power supply systems is increasing due to the unique power consumption characteristics of data centers, with a projected market size of approximately 150 billion yuan for HVDC systems by 2027 [3]. - The average rack density for AI servers is expected to increase significantly, leading to higher demand for server power supplies, with a projected market size of 373 billion yuan by 2027 [3][31]. 2. Liquid Cooling: Gradual Adoption of Cold Plate and Immersion Cooling - Cold plate liquid cooling is projected to account for 40% of the market by 2027, with a market size of 221 billion yuan, while immersion cooling is expected to reach 89.8 billion yuan [45]. - The report discusses the advantages of cold plate cooling, including lower costs and better compatibility with existing systems, while immersion cooling faces challenges related to liquid properties and system compatibility [36][37]. 3. Supporting Electrical Equipment: Transformers, Busbars, and Power Quality Devices - The demand for busbars is expected to rise as they can support high current loads required by AI-powered cabinets, with significant growth potential in the market [3]. - The report highlights the increasing acceptance of SiC-based power quality products in the data center sector, indicating a shift towards more efficient and compact solutions [3]. 4. Market Forecasts - The report provides detailed forecasts for the growth of the data center market, including the number of standard racks and total power capacity, projecting a total power capacity of 68.7 GW by 2027 [31][45]. - It also outlines the expected market sizes for various power supply solutions, including UPS and HVDC systems, with significant growth anticipated in the coming years [31].