Group 1 - The report indicates a weak recovery expectation in the existing fundamentals, with a significant narrowing of profit decline among listed companies. The average net profit of direct-linked companies in 2023 is 68.47 million, with an average gross margin of 36.3% and a diluted ROE of 14.8% [2][58][89] - The North Exchange has a clear positioning as a primary market for new three-board companies, facilitating the financing and listing of specialized and innovative enterprises. As of June 7, 2024, there are 249 listed companies, with 128 classified as national-level specialized and innovative "little giants," accounting for 51.4% [10][12][36] - The current market is characterized by a divergence between fundamentals and liquidity, with the North Exchange's trading volume at a historical low and valuation adjustments being relatively minor [3][19][94] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on three investment themes in the second half of the year: high dividend growth stocks, sectors with significant elasticity from new productivity policies, and high-quality growth stocks in the consumer sector [3][20][21] - The North Exchange is still in the early stages of high-quality development, with recent reforms such as the introduction of the 920 code segment and the resumption of IPO approvals expected to enhance market dynamics [14][18][38] - The new "National Nine Articles" and the 16 measures from the CSRC are expected to solidify the North Exchange's role in serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, expanding the selection of listed companies [18][38][67]

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 07 日 行 业: 医药生物/生物制品 投资评级: 买入(维持) 当前价格: 38.90 港元 双抗国产化先锋,非肿瘤布局丰富 投资要点: 康方生物为国内首个国产双抗商业化落地的企业,布局肿瘤类双抗、自免 和降脂。公司 2012 年成立,现有过亿品种包括卡度尼利、派安普利 2 款抗 体药,其中宫颈癌药物卡度尼利首个完整年度销售额过 10 亿元;在研肺癌 药物依沃西对外授权首付款达到 5 亿美元,2024 年在国内上市并有望后续 在海外上市;非肿瘤领域 2024 年有望迎来 2 款自免和降脂药的上市批准。 ➢ 双抗药物市场商业化前景好 截至 2023 年底,FDA 一共批准 11 个双抗,其中 2022-2023 年批准 8 个双 抗,而 2010-2021 年仅批准 3 个双抗,双抗类药物商业化进程加速。2022/23 年 FDA 批准的双抗销售规模合计分别为 56.68/85.08 亿美元,其中肿瘤类 双抗规模约 7/12 亿美元,根据百济神州的预计到 2028 年肿瘤类双抗的市 场规模将达到 150 亿美元,2023-28 年 CAGR 达到 65%,双抗商业化价值高 ...

证券研究报告 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 周 报 基础化工 7 月周报(7.1—7.7) 维生素涨价可持续吗? 需求改善提供了维生素涨价契机 年初以来脂溶性维生素 VE、VA、VD3价格分别上涨了 21%、43%、135%,维生 素下游绝大部分用于动物饲料,为刚需添加剂。需求的改善为维生素提供 了涨价契机,一方面源于出口需求提升,另一方面是养殖端利润扩大拉动 需求。2024 年 1-5 月 VA 和 VE 出口量分别同比增长 14%、29%;2024 年 以来生猪价格上涨了 22%,提振养殖端采购积极性和维生素添加比例,且 脂溶性维生素的添加需求弹性较大。 寡头集中挺价是上涨的核心动力 维生素行业供给长期偏宽松,上涨的核心动力源于头部企业的集中挺价, 赚取超额利润的要素我们认为需要:1、行业高集中度;2、长期多次博弈; 3、业内企业对出清竞争对手无信心,而 VA、VE 较好地满足这三种特征。 VA、VE 供给寡头格局明显,行业 CR4 分别约 81%和 80%,几位参与者经过十 余年长期多次博弈,且均为多元化经营的集团公司。因此 VA、VE 行业竞争 会较为理性,在需求转好的契机下,业内寡头积极挺价赚取超额利润 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The future trend of AI is hybrid AI, which involves collaboration between edge and cloud computing to optimize workload distribution and improve user experience [1][10] - Edge AI, as an extension of cloud AI, offers advantages such as cost reduction, lower network latency, and enhanced privacy and security [11] - AI modules are key enablers of edge AI, with their penetration rate expected to rise rapidly [2][12] - The global cellular module market is shifting towards domestic Chinese manufacturers, with domestic companies now dominating the top five global players [3][14] - Leading domestic companies are actively deploying AI modules to capitalize on the AI trend [4][15][16] AI PC Market - AI PC is a significant application area for edge AI, with penetration rates expected to grow from 7% in 2024 to 79% by 2027 [1][11] - AI PC shipments are projected to increase from 13 million units in 2024 to 150 million units by 2027 [1][11] AI Module Market - In 2023, AI-enabled cellular IoT modules accounted for 2% of the market, with this share expected to grow to 9% by 2027, representing a 73% CAGR over four years [2][12] - AI modules are categorized into low (below 5 TOPS), medium (5-10 TOPS), and high (above 10 TOPS) AI capabilities, each suited for different applications [12] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - In 2018, only two domestic Chinese companies were among the top five global cellular module manufacturers, but by 2023, four of the top five were Chinese companies, with Quectel leading at a 34% market share [3][14] - Domestic companies such as Quectel, Fibocom, and MeiG Smart are accelerating their AI module deployments, offering products with AI capabilities ranging from 14 TOPS to 48 TOPS [4][15][16] Key Companies and Products - Quectel has launched the SG368Z series AI module, which supports deep learning algorithms and is widely used in various scenarios such as facial recognition and vehicle detection [15] - Fibocom has introduced the SC171 5G AI module with 12 TOPS AI performance, supporting 4K video and multi-camera operations, and has developed solutions based on Qualcomm's QCM6490 and QCS8550 processors [16] - MeiG Smart has established a comprehensive high-performance AI module product line, with AI capabilities ranging from 14 TOPS to 48 TOPS, catering to various industry needs [16]

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 07 日 农林牧渔 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 深 度 研 究 水产品价格回暖,产业链投资正当时 ➢ 草鱼:价格或仍有上涨空间 以草鱼养殖周期来看,从水花(鱼苗)至 3 斤左右成鱼大约需要 1.5-2 年, 更大规格草鱼则需要养殖 2 年以上时间,即今年 3-4 月入塘水花若涨至 3 斤规格出鱼需至明年下半年。展望后市,前期投苗偏低+养殖周期较长(苗 种-成鱼约 2 年),草鱼当期供给仍将处偏紧状态,因此价格底部有较强支 撑;随消费复苏及替代品价格回升,草鱼价格或仍有上涨空间。 ➢ 罗非鱼:中期景气度或回落 今年年初以来罗非鱼价格走势整体较强,主要系前期亏损后部分养殖户转 养其他品种,且原有养户投苗较少,致当期存塘偏低,市场普遍缺鱼。以 罗非鱼两年三造养殖模式看,2023 年 10 月投苗时鱼价已较为景气,投苗 积极性提升带动去年年底投苗增加,该批次鱼于今年 6 月逐步上市。供应 短缺问题或得到一定程度缓解,罗非鱼价或有小幅回落可能。 ➢ 加州鲈:24 全年价格有望高景气 去年夏季高温导致加州鲈养殖成活率显著下降,叠加 23 年 3 季度末鱼价持 续下跌,养殖户秋苗投放积极 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 07 日 建筑材料及新材料 24Q2 前瞻:需求支撑预计较弱 水泥:需求延续弱势,收入盈利同比双减 2024M1-5 全国水泥产量 6.9 亿吨,yoy-10%,需求延续弱势。2024Q2 全国 水泥吨均价 375 元,环比+6 元/+2%,同比-41 元/-10%。近期行业呈"淡季 不淡",5 月以来水泥价格呈小幅上涨态势,核心的支撑是目前水泥盈利处 于历史最低水平附近。2024Q2 水泥煤炭价差吨均值 303 元,环比+10 元 /+3%,同比-36 元/-11%。综合来看,我们大部分水泥企业 2024Q2 呈发货量 /单位盈利同比双减态势,关注近期价格上涨持续性及潜在政策支持。 玻璃:浮法收入盈利承压,光伏/药玻收入盈利有望快速增长 2024H1 浮法玻璃景气度持续下行,2024Q2 5mm 浮法白玻单箱均价 90 元, 环比-15%,同比-17%;单箱毛利(天然气)9.4 元,环比-62%,同比-64%; 浮法玻璃收入盈利同环比均有所承压。2024Q2 2mm 光伏玻璃单平均价 17 元,环比+6%,同比-4%,4 月下游组件厂商排产增加,价格阶段性回暖;重 质纯 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 05 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 电力设备 投资建议: 强于大市(维持) 上次建议: 强于大市 收益机制有望拓展,虚拟电厂加速成长 ➢ 电网新变化:用电结构和分时电价变化 1)用电结构变化,第三产业用电量呈现高增趋势,加剧电网负荷峰差,影 响电网稳定,第三产业用电量同比增长 12.35%,对用电同比增速贡献达到 37.3%,终端电气化率提升增加尖峰负荷,加剧电网负荷峰差。2)分时电 价机制不断完善。用电侧角度,6 月份代购电大多数省份峰谷价差在 0.3- 1.0 元/kWh 以内,超过 0.5 元/kWh 有 22 个省份。发电侧角度,2023 年广 东现货价差高于 0.76 元/kWh 天数占比为 66.1%,山东现货价差高于 0.7 元 /kWh 天数占比为 26.9%。 ➢ 虚拟电厂:低价高效的灵活性资源聚合平台 虚拟电厂既可以作为"正电厂"向系统供电,也可作为"负电厂"消纳系统 冗余电量。虚拟电厂建设成本相对较低,考虑推广费用、相关智能设备以 及管理运维平台成本后,单位投资为 200-400 元/kW,需求响应为主的虚拟 电厂项目提升系统灵活性的 ...

电子 7 月周专题(07.01—07.06) 从日月光资本支出看测试设备发展机遇 ➢ 日月光机器设备资本开支预计重回上升周期 自 2018 年以来,日月光用于购买机器设备的资本支出连续 3 年上升,从 2018 年的 12 亿美元提升至 2021 年的 20 亿美元,3 年 CAGR 达到 19%。随 后连续两年机器设备资本支出出现下降,2022 年仅有 9 亿美元,而根据日 月光在 2024 年第一季度法说会上的指引,2024 年全年机器设备资本支出 预计将增长 50-60%。 ➢ 日月光 2024 年测试设备资本支出或将出现较大幅度增长 从日月光测试设备资本支出金额来看,2018-2023 年间呈现波动态势,2023 年仅有 3 亿美元,同比下滑约 48%。但根据日月光在 2023 年第四季度和 2024 年第一季度法说会的指引,整体资本支出中测试业务所占比例将从 2023 年的 18%提升至 2024 年的 24%,因此 2024 年日月光测试设备的资本 支出或将有较大幅度的同比增长。 ➢ 半导体测试设备市场规模 2027 年有望超百亿美元 半导体测试设备主要包括测试机、分选机、探针台三大类别。其中测试 ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [2][6] Core Insights - The capital expenditure for testing equipment by Daye Technology is expected to see significant growth in 2024, with a projected increase of 50-60% compared to 2023 [3][4][10] - The semiconductor testing equipment market is anticipated to exceed $10 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.1% from 2022 to 2027 [5][21] Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Testing Equipment Market Potential - Daye Technology's capital expenditure for testing equipment is projected to increase significantly in 2024, with the proportion of testing business in overall capital expenditure rising from 18% in 2023 to 24% in 2024 [4][14] - The global testing equipment market reached $7.58 billion in 2022, with a CAGR of 21.6% from 2016 to 2022, and is expected to grow to $10.68 billion by 2027 [5][19] 2. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the computing power industry chain due to the rapid development of AI applications, with related stocks such as Yake Technology and Huahai Chengke recommended [6][28] - Attention is advised on the recovery of consumer electronics and the rollout of AI terminals, with stocks like Visionox highlighted [6][29] - The semiconductor economic cycle is expected to rebound in 2024, suggesting a focus on domestic IC manufacturing chains, with companies like SMIC and Changdian Technology recommended [6][30]

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 05 日 基础化工 把握逆全球化,察化工景气机遇 ——基础化工行业 2024 年度中期投资策略 出口景气带动 2024 年上半年化工盈利回暖 总体来看,2024 年前 5 个月我国出口在去年同期较高基数下,实现了(按 照人民币计价)2.7%的增长,带动 2024Q1 化工行业中盈利同比增加 5%。如 果下半年内需能够持续稳中向好,化工品需求或在出口之外找到拉动因子。 逆全球化视角下的化工投资机遇 逆全球化及地产链压力下,周期整体承压,我们认为三大细分差异化板块 值得关注: 再生,出海以及化工上游资源。首先,1950 至 2021 年全球产 生的 87 亿吨塑料垃圾只有 11%经过了回收利用,再生产业既能解决污染问 题,也是逆全球化及大国竞争下的明牌,有望长期保持较好的竞争力和盈 利能力;其次,美国对中国部分商品加征 25%关税,出海布局是规避中美贸 易摩擦及保护主义关税的较好选择;与此同时,全球较为稳定的供应链体 系逐渐被打破,环保、碳中和等趋势亦在推升制造业成本,推动通胀中枢 向上,世界年通胀率已从 2016 年的 1.61%上行至 2022 年的 7.97%,不可再 ...