证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 05 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 深 度 研 究 食品饮料 食品饮料分红优势凸显，新规之下重视投资价值 ➢ 各子行业已居稳定期或者正处成长期 国内食品饮料多个子行业已进入成熟阶段，市场规模相对稳定，格局集中。 格局来看，按照 2023 年上市公司营收，除零食赛道 CR4 小于 70%，其他子 行业均在 70%以上。增长来看，2023 年白酒产量下降 5.1%，但利润增加 7.5%；啤酒产量趋稳，营收利润均增长；乳品饮料增速维持中低个位数。 休闲食品和预制菜则由于新兴渠道和工业化起步时间晚，增速仍然较快， 公司业绩更加突出。稳定期或成长期均为企业提供了稳健盈利的有益条件。 ➢ 食饮商业模式投入较低但持续回报较高 食品饮料企业的商业模式能够在较低的资本开支和营运资本下持续产生高 额盈利和现金流回报,如喜诗糖果和可口可乐这类企业，符合巴菲特价值投 资观念下第一类标准。食品饮料公司资本开支目前压力较小，部分企业资 本开支较少如康师傅，或者资本开支远低于现金类资产储备如贵州茅台， 还有部分企业通过募资方式进行资本开支如汤臣倍健。这些企业无需占用 过多利润满足再投资需求，能将大部分 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 07 日 长安汽车(000625) 新能源表现强劲,G318 上市 5 日订单破万 事件: 基本数据 作者 | | |-----------------------------| | 分析师:高登 | | 执业证书编号:S0590523110004 | | 邮箱:gaodeng@glsc.com.cn | | 分析师:陈斯竹 | | 执业证书编号:S0590523100009 | | 邮箱:chenszh@glsc.com.cn | | 分析师:黄程保 | | 执业证书编号:S0590523020001 | | 邮箱:huangcb@glsc.com.cn | 相关报告 1、《长安汽车(000625):新能源及海外销量持续 高增,全球化进程加速》2024.06.07 2、《长安汽车(000625):新能源及海外表现亮眼, 与华为合作稳步推进》2024.05.09 股价相对走势 长安汽车 沪深300 -20% 7% 33% 60% 2023/7 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 | | | | | | | |--------------------------|- ...

行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 食品饮料 2024Q2 酒类前瞻:白酒分化延续,啤酒升级节奏放缓 ➢ 白酒:商务需求仍在复苏途中,次高端价位影响更大 2023Q3 以来工业企业利润同比增速降幅收窄,2024Q1 转正达 4.30%,固定 资产投资完成额、房地产开发投资完成额当月增速均延续提升,预计随着 宏观经济改善,商务消费逐步复苏,白酒企业真实动销有望迎来改善契机。 茅台批价受短期因素影响有波动,当前公司采取多措施稳定价格,批价逐 步企稳。今年以来五粮液、国窖 1573 等批价均较稳定,当前普五等批价与 飞天的批价差距较大,我们认为与飞天批价波动不具有明显相关性。 ➢ 白酒:大众需求稳中有升,大众价格带品牌集中度提升 2024 年宴席市场需求稳中有升,根据名酒研究所,五一期间多地宴席消费 减少约 30%,该部分需求通过餐饮等小型聚会等得到部分补充,根据美团数 据,5 月 1-3 日全国餐饮堂食订单量同比增长超 73%;根据商务部,端午假 期重点监测餐饮企业销售额同比增长 7.4%。我们认为大众价格带与宏观经 济的相关度更低,消费韧性更强;大众价位段品牌集中,区域龙头一般全 价格带布局,更适应当前市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with high-end liquor showing resilience while mid-range liquor faces challenges [3][25] - The beer sector is expected to see a recovery in the second half of the year due to a low base effect, despite a slowdown in the upgrade pace during peak season [4][31] Summary by Sections Baijiu (Liquor) - **Business Demand Recovery**: Business demand for liquor is gradually recovering, influenced by macroeconomic improvements. The profit growth of industrial enterprises has shown signs of stabilization, with a 4.30% increase in Q1 2024 [1][9] - **Consumer Demand**: The demand for mid-range liquor is weak, with a slight decline expected in Q2 2024. Brand differentiation is becoming more pronounced, with leading brands like Fenjiu performing better [3][25] - **Market Dynamics**: The high-end liquor segment is projected to grow modestly, while the mid-range segment faces challenges. Regional leaders in the 100-300 RMB price range are expected to perform well due to their comprehensive market strategies [3][25][27] Beer - **Production Trends**: The cumulative beer production from January to May 2024 increased by 0.70% year-on-year, with expectations for a return to positive growth in the second half of the year as the production base lowers [4][31] - **Cost Pressures**: The cost of key raw materials is stabilizing or declining, which may alleviate some cost pressures for beer companies [4][31] - **Market Segmentation**: Beer consumption is showing regional and price segment differentiation, with higher-priced beers experiencing slower growth while mid-range beers continue to replace lower-priced options [4][31] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor**: Focus on companies with high report consistency and reasonable valuations, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. Regional leaders like Shanxi Fenjiu and Gujing Gongjiu are also recommended [5] - **Beer**: Attention should be given to undervalued leading companies like Qingdao Beer and China Resources Beer, with a focus on structural upgrades in the market [5]

行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 前瞻研究 生物多样性(一):国际政策及公约分析 2024 年 5 月 8 日,习近平主席访法期间,中法联合发布《中法关于就 生物多样性与海洋加强合作的联合声明:昆明-蒙特利尔到尼斯》,生 物多样性保护再次成为热门议题。近年来,我国越来越关注生物多样 性保护,2024 年 1 月 18 日,经国务院批准,生态环境部发布《中国生 物多样性保护战略与行动计划(2023-2030 年)》,标志着我国在生物多 样性保护领域积极履行大国责任。 国际社会对生物多样性保护的关注由来已久。全球生物多样性保护现 状不容乐观,生物多样性丧失成为威胁社会荆棘长期发展的关键制约 因素。GRI 开创与编制了全球较为广泛使用的可持续发展报告框架, 其中 GRI 304 标准专门针对生物多样性披露建立。企业的 ESG 评价体 系中也十分关注生物多样性相关责任的履行,MSCI、FTSE、CDP 三 大 ESG 评级框架中与生物多样性相关的标准各有侧重。 2022 年 12 月,COP15 的各国代表达成"昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样 性框架",为各国政府和全社会到 2030 年和更远期的全球生物多样性 ...

图：两位候选人主要政策主张 ◥货币政策方面，特朗普主张 特朗普 Biden Trump +2.8 (47.8%) 45.0% 资产表现：回顾大选年的大类资产及股市表现规律 资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所。 12 注：我们定义当年总统胜选者与得票数第二的候选人选票差距不超过100票视为焦灼，根据该规则，被视为选情焦灼的年份有：1960年、1976年、2000年、2004年、2016年和2020年。 国联证券策略研究团队 核心结论：大选对风险偏好影响或有限，关注"特朗普回归"的叙事发酵 ◥资产表现：回顾大选年的大类资产及股市表现规律 焦灼年份的表现显著优于选情焦灼的年份，而黄金在选举焦灼年份前一个月表现较好，总统选举短期内或对风险资产形成一定扰动。 行业更佳；且无论两党孰胜，美股&港股材料在选举落定后表现偏强；选情焦灼年份，选举日后一个月美股&港股能源及材料表现更佳。 资产与政策视角，前瞻美国大选 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 2024年7月4日 ✓ 两党竞选主张矛盾集中于货币、贸易和财政领域，市场提前交易特朗普政策的潜在影响。第一轮总统辩论中，两党竞选主张和此前保 持一致，主要矛盾仍集中在货币（是否支持美联 ...

3 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 锦波生物（832982） 事件 ➢ 2024Q1 开局积极、Q2 环比加速，薇旖美增长势能持续释放 ➢ 注射类品项持续拓展 ➢ 研发项目丰富、成果持续突破 ➢ 盈利预测、估值与评级 风险提示：监管政策大幅变化；医疗风险事故；行业竞争加剧；产品获批进度 不及预期 2024 年 07 月 05 日 买入（维持） 股价相对走势 分析师：邓文慧 执业证书编号：S0590522060001 邮箱：dengwh@glsc.com.cn 分析师：郑薇 执业证书编号：S0590521070002 邮箱：zhengwei@glsc.com.cn 分析师：武钇西 执业证书编号：S0590524010004 邮箱：wuyx@glsc.com.cn 分析师：李英 执业证书编号：S0590522110002 邮箱：liy@glsc.com.cn 1 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 一般声明 公 司 报 告│ 公 司 点 评 研 究 2024Q2 环比加速，薇旖美增长势能持续释放 公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告：预计 2024H1 实现归母净利润 2.9-3.1 亿元，同 比增长 165%-18 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The acquisition of a controlling stake in Roman Intelligent is expected to accelerate the company's entry into the personal care sector, which has significant market size and growth potential [2] - The personal care market in China shows promising growth, with online retail sales for hair dryers and electric toothbrushes reaching CNY 9.06 billion and CNY 5.58 billion in 2023, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29.9% and 4.2% [2] - Roman Intelligent has strong technological advantages, including over 900 authorized patents and the ability to self-develop key components like high-speed brushless motors, which will complement the company's existing brand and channel advantages [2] - The acquisition price for Roman Intelligent is considered reasonable, and the company has committed to achieving net profits of no less than CNY 15 million, CNY 25 million, and CNY 40 million for the years 2024 to 2026 [2] - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company of 7.8%, 12.7%, and 13.3% for 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth of 11.7%, 12.8%, and 13.4% for the same period [2] Financial Data Summary - Roman Intelligent's revenue for 2022 and 2023 was CNY 503 million and CNY 505 million, with net profits of CNY 17.5 million and a loss of CNY 3.72 million, respectively [10] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from CNY 4.873 billion in 2022 to CNY 6.731 billion by 2026 [15] - The report estimates that the company will achieve EBITDA of CNY 912 million, CNY 1.026 billion, and CNY 1.126 billion for 2024 to 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.9-3.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 165%-183.28% [2]. - The growth momentum of the product "Wei Yimei" continues to be released, with a significant increase in sales and market penetration [9]. - The company has a rich pipeline of R&D projects, with ongoing clinical applications in various medical fields, including gynecology and urology [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 14.05 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 80.0%, and net profit is expected to be 6.51 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 117.2% [5][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.36 yuan in 2024, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22x, 16x, and 12x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][10]. - The company reported a net profit of 1 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with expectations of 2 billion yuan in Q2, indicating a year-on-year increase of 201% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97% [9]. Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has expanded its injection product line and is actively promoting its brand and products to deepen existing customer relationships while attracting new clients [9]. - The "Wei Yimei" product has seen significant sales growth, with over 570,000 bottles sold in 2023, and the company has a sales team of 135 covering approximately 2,000 medical institutions [9]. - New product launches and collaborations, such as the partnership with Shurike for new medical devices, are expected to further enhance market reach and customer base [9].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Nonlinear Equity Allocation Signal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates microstructure factors for independent prediction and combines macro and meso factors to divide the market into eight operational states, forming a nonlinear equity allocation signal framework [3] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Microstructure factors are used for independent prediction 2. Macro and meso factors are domain-synthesized to classify the market into eight operational states 3. A nonlinear equity allocation signal is constructed based on these states [3] - **Model Evaluation**: This model provides a comprehensive framework by combining multiple dimensions of market signals [3] 2. Model Name: Four-Factor Timing Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines three-dimensional timing signals (macro, meso, and micro) with stock index futures timing signals to address the limitations of delayed predictions at market turning points [5][61] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct three-dimensional timing signals based on macroeconomic state, meso-level prosperity index, and microstructure risk 2. Develop stock index futures timing signals using the correlation between futures basis and index trends 3. Synthesize the two signals to form the four-factor timing signal [5][61] - **Model Evaluation**: The synthesized signal effectively complements the shortcomings of three-dimensional signals in predicting market inflection points [5][61] 3. Model Name: Stock Index Futures Timing Signal - **Model Construction Idea**: Utilizes the correlation between stock index futures basis and index trends to reflect market sentiment and construct daily timing signals [4][52] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define annualized basis rate: $ \text{Annualized Basis Rate} = \frac{\text{Next Month Futures - Current Month Futures}}{\text{Spot Price}} \times 12 $ 2. Use the CSI 500 basis time series to reflect market-wide changes 3. Construct a high-frequency basis indicator to express panic sentiment 4. Perform IC matrix testing and calculate stratified returns based on normalized signal values [52][53][55] - **Model Evaluation**: The signal captures market sentiment effectively and provides a quantitative basis for timing decisions [52][53] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Nonlinear Equity Allocation Signal Model - **Excess Return**: Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Four-Factor Timing Signal - **Excess Return**: - CSI 300: Cumulative excess return of 73.61%, annualized excess return of 9.86% [62] - CSI 500: Cumulative excess return of 69.90%, annualized excess return of 9.36% [63] - CSI 1000: Cumulative excess return of 61.61%, annualized excess return of 8.25% [65] - CSI All Share: Cumulative excess return of 65.00%, annualized excess return of 8.70% [69] 3. Stock Index Futures Timing Signal - **IC Matrix Testing**: The stratified returns distribution is relatively linear when holding for 20 trading days [56] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Macro State Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the favorability of the macro environment on asset performance using logistic regression [20][21] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Stabilize macro variable sequences by lagging one period and calculating DIF values (12-period EMA minus 26-period EMA) 2. Define multi-long/short states based on the 60-day future return of A-shares 3. Perform rolling logistic regression using historical data ([t-1000, t-60]) to predict the favorability of the macro environment [20][21] - **Factor Evaluation**: High logical correlation with future index trends but limited predictive power for trend intensity [24] 2. Factor Name: Meso-Level Prosperity Index - **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses high-frequency meso-level data to predict A-share profitability trends [26][27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Select high-frequency meso-level variables (e.g., industrial output, profits, economic activity) 2. Use PCA to synthesize major factors and regress against the net profit growth rate of the Shanghai Composite Index 3. Increase frequency to daily and predict using the trained model [26][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong predictive power for A-share profitability trends and leading indicators [27] 3. Factor Name: Microstructure Risk Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures valuation, risk premium, volatility, and liquidity to assess market risk [31][32][34][36] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Valuation: Average percentile of PE and PB over the past five years 2. Risk Premium: Percentile of ERP over the past five years 3. Volatility: Average percentile of rolling 20-day volatility over the past five years 4. Liquidity: Percentile of free-float turnover rate over the past five years 5. Combine the above metrics equally to form a left-side prediction indicator [31][32][34][36][38] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a comprehensive measure of market risk, with current A-share structural risk at a low level (0.27) [38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Macro State Factor - **Correlation with Index Trends**: - CSI All Share: 0.9628 (up/down), -0.0132 (trend intensity) [25] - CSI 300: 0.9659 (up/down), -0.1271 (trend intensity) [25] - CSI 500: 0.9765 (up/down), 0.1211 (trend intensity) [25] - CSI 1000: 0.9677 (up/down), 0.0396 (trend intensity) [25] 2. Meso-Level Prosperity Index - **Predictive Performance**: - Leading A-share profitability trends with significant accuracy [27] 3. Microstructure Risk Factor - **Current Risk Levels (as of June 28, 2024)**: - CSI All Share: Valuation (0.122), Risk Premium (0.034), Volatility (0.427), Liquidity (0.105), Structural Risk (0.353) [39] - CSI 300: Valuation (0.196), Risk Premium (0.151), Volatility (0.078), Liquidity (0.263), Structural Risk (0.294) [39] - CSI 500: Valuation (0.182), Risk Premium (0.102), Volatility (0.479), Liquidity (0.062), Structural Risk (0.372) [39] - CSI 1000: Valuation (0.147), Risk Premium (0.050), Volatility (0.638), Liquidity (0.055), Structural Risk (0.396) [39]