根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 各位领导下午好首先祝大家端午节安康也非常感谢各位领导在百忙之中在端午节的这么一个下午然后来参加我们国联食品饮料的这么一个系列电话会议那么今天是我们电话会的第四期然后以后我们每周的这个周五的这个下午都会和大家见面然后去跟大家汇报一下我们一周以内食品饮料的这个 投资者比较关注的话题跟大家汇报一下我们最新的观点本期呢其实我是针对我们整个安徽市场的这个渠道调研以及股东大会这个整个调研的感受和情况来跟各位投资者进行一个汇报 那么整体来看的话呢其实安徽市场去年的需求相对于整个白酒板块其实是有α的那么这个需求主要还是体现了两个方面一方面是延期市场的需求超越期 这个延期市场的需求超越期呢一方面是返乡另一方面就是灰燕需求的回补那么 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 19.50 CNY, based on a 15x PE for 2024 [7][9]. Core Views - The company is accelerating its globalization strategy while enhancing product innovation, brand building, and product upgrades, which are expected to lead to both profit and valuation improvements, positioning the company among the global tire leaders [2][12]. - The long-term demand for tires is supported by the steady growth in vehicle ownership and the exit of outdated production capacities, allowing Chinese tire companies to capture more global market share [4][30]. - The company has established a comprehensive product layout and is a pioneer in overseas expansion, with production bases in Vietnam and Cambodia, and plans for additional bases in Indonesia and Mexico [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Product Layout and Overseas Expansion - The company has completed its product layout for semi-steel, full-steel, and non-road tires since 2009 and is the first Chinese tire company to establish overseas production bases [3][19]. - The company currently operates four domestic production bases and two overseas bases, with plans for further expansion to enhance its global footprint [3][19]. 2. Long-term Demand Support and Rise of Chinese Tires - The global tire market exceeds 180 billion USD, with over 70% of sales coming from the replacement market, indicating a relatively inelastic demand supported by increasing vehicle ownership [4][30]. - The exit of outdated production capacities is improving the supply landscape, allowing Chinese tire manufacturers to leverage their cost advantages [4][30]. 3. Advantages of Globalization and Overseas Bases - The company has strategically located its overseas bases in regions with favorable tax rates and minimal anti-dumping duties, enhancing its risk resilience and profitability [5][30]. - The overseas production facilities are expected to significantly contribute to the company's earnings, with a higher profit margin compared to domestic operations [31]. 4. Integrated R&D and Brand Development - The company emphasizes R&D investment and has established partnerships with research institutions to create technological barriers, exemplified by the innovative "Liquid Gold" tire [6][30]. - The successful development of large tires has broken overseas monopolies, further enhancing the company's product structure and profitability [6][30]. 5. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 32.2 billion CNY, 36.3 billion CNY, and 42.9 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with corresponding net profits of 4.3 billion CNY, 5.1 billion CNY, and 6.2 billion CNY, reflecting strong growth rates [7][14]. - The report anticipates a three-year CAGR of 26% for EPS, driven by the company's global expansion and product optimization [7][14].

Group 1 - The penetration rate of AI in A-shares is still low, with TMT and large-cap companies leading the way [77][93][84] - The overall penetration rate of companies mentioning AI is less than 20%, with the highest rates in the TMT sector [93][124] - The number of companies mentioning AI has increased significantly from 172 in 2020 to over 1200 in 2023, but the growth rate remains slow [94][93] Group 2 - Most industries are in the application stage, with significant representation in beauty care, retail, and computing, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and social services are still in early layout and R&D stages [3][42][43] - Companies in the application layer focus on improving quality and efficiency, while those in the basic layer emphasize demand generation [46][49] - The expected effects of AI vary by industry, with cost reduction being a priority for sectors like textiles and light industry, while quality improvement is emphasized in sectors like machinery and home appliances [46][49] Group 3 - The majority of companies adopt a self-research approach to AI, with nearly 70% of companies engaging in self-research, while about 21% collaborate [23][24] - Over 75% of companies have released or promoted AI products, while nearly 25% are still in the R&D or testing phases [23][24] - The output effects of AI are primarily focused on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with only about 8% of companies reporting significant revenue growth [23][24] Group 4 - Future development directions for companies include expanding application scenarios, conducting technical research, and product development, with about 25% of companies focusing on these areas [23][35] - Companies in the basic layer are more inclined towards self-research, while those in the technical and application layers show a higher tendency for collaboration [24][37] - The capital expenditure of domestic AI leaders is significantly lower compared to their counterparts in the US and Hong Kong [28][40]

证券研究报告 投 2024年06月07日 资 策 略 国联研究本周报告精选 作者 │ 分析师：包承超 定 期 执业证书编号：S0590523100005 策 邮箱：baochch@glsc.com.cn 略 分析师：张晓春 本周重点报告快览： 执业证书编号：S0590513090003 邮箱：zhangxc@glsc.com.cn ➢ 总量研究 1、 2024年一季报：跨国巨头眼中的中国 联系人：付祺泰 邮箱：fuqt@glsc.com.cn 2、 产业面面观第22期：本轮涨价，哪些细节值得关注？ 3、 策略专题：Q2景气或持续回升，核心资产或逐步回归 4、 美国经济韧性和再通胀研究（三）：需求温和降温或有助于通胀回落 5、 对5月PMI和高频数据的思考及未来经济展望：工业产出或好于PMI读数 6、 永赢中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF投资价值分析：放大黄金上行弹性 7、 量化可转债研究（二）：随机森林模型在可转债中的应用 8、 固定收益专题：特别国债定价发行与一般国债有何差异？ 9、 固定收益专题：公共事业涨价对物价影响几何？ ➢ 行业深度 1、 医药生物行业专题：家用呼吸机：海外去库存有望迎来拐点 2、 社会 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月10日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 通信 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 英伟达 GPU 加速迭代，聚焦 AI 光通信核心标的 专 通信 沪深300 题 20% 研  英伟达GPU加速迭代，持续保持领先优势 究 3% 在2024年以前，英伟达平均2年推出新一代GPU架构，目前Blackwell芯 片已经投产，并预计于2025年推出Blackwell Ultra AI芯片，2026年推 -13% 出下一代 AI 平台“Rubin”，2027 年推出 Rubin Ultra，更新节奏将变为 “一年一次”。通过加快产品迭代，英伟达保持产品性能优势，且生成单个 -30% 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 Token功耗大幅降低。在各大GPU厂商新推出的产品中，英伟达Blackwell 在性能上高于AMD的Instinct MI325X和谷歌的Trillium芯片。 作者  英伟达发力AI以太网，超大规模组网趋势明确 分析师：张宁 英伟达表达了发力 AI 以太网的决心，其全球首个专为 AI 设计的高性能以 执业证书编号：S059 ...

证券研究报告 国内热管理系统领域新星 前瞻布局新兴领域静待蓝海市场 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险；新兴领域市场开拓不及预期；行业空间测算 偏差风险。 作者 公司报告│非金融-公司深度研究 不同于市场的观点/创新之处 2）储能领域：随着新型储能装机量逐年提升，带动公司更多的下游优质客户开拓储 能业务，使得公司储能领域毛利率得以维持，假设储能领域毛利率分别为 21%/23%/23%。 中长期公司增长点主要源自风电出海及"以大代小"替换需求和氢/储热管理行业的 持续开拓；数据液冷领域若能实现首台套交付，长期看有望成为增长的强劲助力。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | 1. | | 国内热管理系统领域新星 ............................................ 4 | | | | 1.1 | 紧跟趋势完善业务布局 ....... ...

Key Points General Information - **Purpose of the Call**: The call is exclusively for clients on the white list of Guolian Securities Research Institute. It does not constitute investment advice and participants should make their own investment decisions and bear their own risks. Guolian Securities assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by participants due to the use of the call content [1]. Industry and Company Specifics - **Industry**: The specific industry or company involved is not mentioned in the provided content. - **Core Views and Arguments**: No core views or arguments are presented in the provided content. - **Other Important Content**: No other important content is provided in the given content.

根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 尊敬的各位投资者晚上好我是国联证券的宏观分析师方世超 那今天呢由我来分享一下我们对这个五月外贸数据的一个解读以及对后续外贸前景的展望 5月中国以美元计价的出口规模在经过界限调整以后环比增长了1.7%其中外需的改善可能是出口环比回升的一个主要原因此外就是面对海外的一些关税的风险近期也有一些抢出口的现象这可能也对出口构成了一定的支撑那么展望未来我们预计 我国以美元计价的出口规模在界限调整以后有望在未来的一段时间内保持温和的环比增增长有市场观点担心说当前的抢出口可能会透支部分的需求引发出口的下行我们认为这个可能要等到四季度才会有所体现以上是我们的一个核心观点接下来我稍微展开介绍一下 首先是5月的出口情况5月的中国出口同比增速为7.6%那是较上个月有一个进一步的大幅回升那部分的原因是因为去年的基数偏低在季节性调整以后 5月的出口环比也有一个进一步的增长那从剔除了这个界限因素以后的这个数据上 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 06 月 10 日 出口偏强或仍将持续 ——对 5 月外贸数据的思考与未来展望 核心观点： 5 月中国以美元计价的出口同比增速为 7.6%，较 4 月（1.5%）大幅回升。 季节性调整后，5 月出口环比增长 1.7%。外需的改善可能是出口环比回升 的主要原因。此外，面对海外关税风险，近期"抢出口"因素或也对出口构 成了一定支撑。5 月进口规模在季节性调整后，环比下降 2.0%（前值+2.1%）。 展望未来，我们预计，我国季节性调整后的出口规模或有望在未来一段时 间保持温和的环比正增长；同时，内需的修复也有望带动进口回升。 5 月出口环比上行 5 月中国出口同比增速为 7.6%（美元计价），较 4 月（1.5%）进一步大幅回 升，部分原因是去年基数偏低。季节性调整以后，5 月出口规模较 4 月进一 步扩大，环比增长 1.7%，表明出口具有较强的韧性。 多数产品出口有所增长 季节性调整后，分出口产品看，5 月我国原材料、机电产品、高新技术产品、 农产品的出口都有所回升，环比分别增长 16.3%、4.8%、1.5%、1.1%；但轻 工产品的出口有一定的放缓，环比下降 2.1%。分出口对象 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near future [2]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in wholesale vehicle sales, with May sales at 332,000 units, down 17.1% year-on-year. Cumulative sales from January to May reached 1.526 million units, a decrease of 8.4% compared to the previous year [3][4]. - Despite the overall sales decline, the company's self-owned brands showed strong performance, with a significant increase in sales for the Zhiji L6 model, which began deliveries in late May [4][5]. - The company is accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles, with May deliveries of 97,000 units, up 27.4% year-on-year, and cumulative deliveries of 433,000 units from January to May, an increase of 33.4% [5][6]. - The company is focusing on technological advancements, including the introduction of solid-state batteries expected to be mass-produced by 2026, which will enhance product competitiveness [6]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 744.7 billion yuan, 778.4 billion yuan, and 822.8 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 4.5%, and 5.7% [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 15.7 billion yuan, 17.2 billion yuan, and 18.5 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 11.2%, 9.7%, and 7.7% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.35 yuan, 1.49 yuan, and 1.60 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7].