证券研究报告 行 2024年05月07日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 机械设备 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 年报综述：看好锂电设备出海，国内主链复苏在即 点 机械设备 沪深300 评 10% 研 究 ➢ 行业事件： -3% 近期 2023年年报及2024年一季报陆续发布，我们选取锂电设备行业代表 -17% 性上市企业共11家进行行业分析，分别为锂电核心设备企业【先导智能】 【杭可科技】【先惠技术】【赢合科技】【利元亨】【海目星】【联赢激光】【科 -30% 瑞技术】，以及复合集流体设备企业【道森股份】【东威科技】【骄成超声】。 2023/5 2023/9 2024/1 2024/5 ➢ 2023锂电设备增收不增利，国内锂电扩产阶段性放缓 作者 分析师：张旭 从收入端来看，锂电设备行业2023年实现营收526亿元，同比+14%；2024Q1 执业证书编号：S0590521050001 实现营收 103亿元，同比-5%。从利润端来看，锂电设备行业 2023年实现 归母净利润42亿元，同比-14%；2024Q1实现归母净利润9.2亿元，同比- 邮箱：zxu@glsc.com.cn 1 ...

证券研究报告 公 司 报 告│ 公 司 季 报 点 评 中国铝业(601600) 氧化铝和电解铝双轮驱动，盈利能力大幅改善 事件： 公司发布 2024 年第一季度报告，2024 Q1 实现营业收入 489.56 亿元，同 比下降 26.14%，归母净利润 22.30 亿元，同比增长 23.01%。 ➢ 氧化铝板块：矿端供应紧张，外售增厚利润 24 年 Q1，受国内铝土矿产量下滑及几内亚燃料库爆炸事件影响，国内氧化 铝价格大幅上涨，24 年 Q1 国内氧化铝均价同比上涨 14.6%。23 年公司冶 金级氧化铝产量 1667 万吨，由于公司氧化铝自给率 100%，氧化铝价格上 涨有利于公司电解铝成本稳定，并通过外售氧化铝增厚利润。 ➢ 电解铝板块：价格上涨和成本下降并存，盈利能力提升 24 年 Q1，公司主要产品电解铝均价同比上涨 3.1%，主要成本阳极均价同 比下降 35.2%，公司电解铝业务盈利能力提升。由于公司是云铝股份第一大 股东，24 年 Q1 云铝股份归母净利润同比增长 31.53%，公司受益明显。 ➢ 盈利好转，现金分红比例增加 随着电解铝行业供需格局好转，公司负债率回落且盈利能力增强。23 年公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 112.48 CNY, based on a current price of 98.44 CNY [8]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit figures for 2023 and Q1 2024 are in line with expectations, with revenues of 331.26 billion CNY and 162.55 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 10.04% and 8.03% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 100.16 billion CNY and 60.55 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth of 6.80% and 5.02% respectively [2][3]. - The growth rate of mid-to-high-end liquor has slowed in the short term, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor reaching 285.39 billion CNY and 39.50 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.82% and 20.70% respectively. Revenue growth in provinces outside the home province outpaced that within the home province [4]. - Increased sales expenses have put short-term pressure on profitability, with a gross margin of 75.25% in 2023, up 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.91 percentage points to 30.24% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 360.76 billion CNY, 387.61 billion CNY, and 412.66 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 8.91%, 7.44%, and 6.46%. Net profits are expected to be 105.88 billion CNY, 116.08 billion CNY, and 126.29 billion CNY, with growth rates of 5.71%, 9.63%, and 8.80% respectively [6][7]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 331.26 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 10.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 100.16 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.80% [3][7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.03 CNY, 7.71 CNY, and 8.38 CNY respectively, with a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.03% [6][7]. - The company's financial metrics indicate a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.1 in 2023, expected to decrease to 14.2 by 2024, and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.2 in 2023, projected to decline to 2.6 by 2024 [7].

证券研究报告 就业市场边际走弱可能不算坏消息 ——美国 4 月非农就业数据点评 失业率上升到 3.9%，劳动参与率持平，同时新增非农就业 17.5 万人，低于 预期，整体就业市场边际走弱；时薪环比增速较上月回落，同比下降到 3.9%。 债券市场收益率下行，股票继续上行。美联储 2024 年 12 月会议降息的概 率虽有上升，但仍不到 70%，期货市场开始怀疑今年是否存在降息。我们仍 然认为通胀继续回落的情况下，美联储今年还是有降息的可能。 失业率回到 3.9%，劳动参与率持平，整体就业市场边际走弱。新增非农就 业低于预期，新增就业 17.5 万人，就业增长降速。我们认为就业市场虽然 边际走弱，但整体来看劳动力的供需仍位于需求略高于供给的水平。 时薪增长环比 0.2%，同比下降到 3.9%，这对于缓解美联储的通胀担忧来讲 是有利的。美联储 5 月会议上说近几个月通胀进展有限，工资通胀持续回 落显然有利于通胀未来继续回落。分行业看共 7 个行业时薪跑赢通胀，在 13 个行业中超过半数，较上月减少一个。4 月每周工作时间 34.3 小时，较 3 月 34.4 小时下降。 4 月非季调的非农同比增长 281.5 万, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 129.77 CNY, based on a current price of 102.25 CNY [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2024 earnings that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue of 2.509 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.84%, and a net profit of 309 million CNY, up 27.76% year-on-year [1][2]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements have significantly contributed to the company's performance, with a gross margin of 22.18% and a net profit margin of 12.30% in Q1 2024 [2]. - The establishment of overseas production bases is progressing well, which is expected to enhance the company's profit structure and increase orders from international clients [2][3]. - The company is entering the robotics sector through a joint venture, which is anticipated to create a second growth curve by expanding its product offerings in precision components and robotic systems [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 13.204 billion CNY, 16.043 billion CNY, and 19.059 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 25.61%, 21.50%, and 18.80% [4][5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.460 billion CNY, 1.830 billion CNY, and 2.238 billion CNY, with growth rates of 21.58%, 25.31%, and 22.31% [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with projected EPS of 5.41 CNY, 6.78 CNY, and 8.29 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][5].

证券研究报告 2024 年 05 月 07 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 交通运输 交运行业 2023 年报及 2024 年一季报综述 ➢ 高速公路行业：客运出行支撑基本面向好，高股息属性显著 2023 年高速公路整体呈现"客强货弱"，客车恢复速度要显著快于货车。1- 12 月份，高速公路客车与货车车流量平均增速分别为 41%和 1%，货车流量 增长表现较为乏力。受益于出行需求回暖和车流量回升，2023 年高速公路 板块业绩显著修复。2023 年高速公路板块归母净利同比增长 26.3%，同比 2019 年增长 14.1%。 展望 2024 年，行业基本面整体向好，2024 年客车流量的增长依旧主要源 于汽车保有量的自然增长与居民出行需求的持续释放，货车流量增速主要 取决于经济大环境及制造业复苏进度。利率下行的大环境下，高速公路股 息率仍然具有较强吸引力。高速公路上市公司近年来延续高分红政策，根 据 2024 年归母净利润预测结果，重点覆盖公司 2024 年股息率多数在 5%以 上，高股息属性对于具有绝对收益需求的投资者仍具备较大吸引力。 ➢ 物流行业：行业景气上行，电商出海需求旺盛 2023 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年05月06日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 食品饮料 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 酒类年报及一季报综述：基本面磨底，板块延续分化 深 食品饮料 沪深300 度 10% 研 ➢ 白酒：2024Q1板块收入环比略放缓，汾酒/迎驾/老白干/老窖超预期 究 -3% 整体法计算白酒行业重点公司 2023Q4 和 2024Q1 营业收入增速分别为 16.26%/15.38%，2024Q1白酒板块收入增速环比略下降0.88pct。细分行业 -17% 来看，高端酒、次高端酒收入环比降速，区域酒韧性较强。2023Q4和2024Q1 -30% 高端酒营业收入增速分别为 16.86%/15.84%；全国次高端酒增速分别为 2023/5 2023/9 2023/12 2024/4 30.06%/14.22%；区域次高端酒增速分别为6.82%/14.84%。板块内部分化加 剧，汾酒、迎驾、老白干超预期，老窖略超预期。 作者 ➢ 白酒：销售收现慢于收入，酒企增加经销商授信 分析师：邓周贵 2024Q1 整体法计算白酒板块（营业收入+Δ合同负债）同比增长 27.31%， 执业证书 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a current price of 52.61 CNY and a target price of 66.70 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company's mining service business is experiencing steady growth, and mining resources are being released as expected [2]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.399 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 38.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.031 billion CNY, up 68.74% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.973 billion CNY, a 33.68% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 274 million CNY, up 48.07% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Mining Service Business - In 2023, the company completed a total excavation volume of 4.5858 million cubic meters, achieving a completion rate of 106.88%. The mining supply volume was 39.331 million tons, with a completion rate of 94.13% [4]. - The mining service segment generated a revenue of 6.607 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25.52%, accounting for 89.30% of the company's total revenue in 2023. The overseas mining service revenue was 4.160 billion CNY, up 28.83% year-on-year, representing 62.96% of the mining service revenue [4]. Resource Development Business - The company produced approximately 9,777.49 tons of copper concentrate in 2023, with sales of about 10,201.52 tons, generating a revenue of 506 million CNY, which accounted for 6.84% of total revenue [5]. - The L mine began production in Q4 2023, with an expected annual output of about 40,000 tons of copper metal once fully operational. The Guizhou Two Chah River phosphate mine also commenced production in the second half of 2023, achieving a sales target of 150,000 tons of phosphate rock, generating a revenue of 120 million CNY [5]. Future Outlook - In 2024, the company plans to produce and sell approximately 10,000 tons of copper concentrate from the D mine and aims to achieve full production at the L mine by the end of 2024, targeting an annual production of 20,000 tons of copper metal and sales of 22,000 tons [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from rising copper prices in 2024, with both volume and price increases anticipated in the resource development business [6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.809 billion CNY, 2.285 billion CNY, and 2.839 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.93 CNY, 3.70 CNY, and 4.60 CNY [7]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 22.8 times for 2024, with a target price of 66.7 CNY, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7].

证券研究报告 行 2024年05月06日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 社会服务 │ 上次建议： 强于大市 行 业 相对大盘走势 旅游花费创历史新高，入出境旅游快速恢复 点 社会服务 沪深300 评 10% 研 ➢ 行业事件： 究 -7% 文旅部发布五一出游数据。经文旅部测算，全国国内旅游出游合计2.95亿 人次，同比增长7.6%，按可比口径较2019年同期增长28.2%；国内游客 -23% 出游总花费1668.9亿元，同比增长12.7%，按可比口径较2019年同期增 -40% 长 13.5%。“五一”假期入出境游客合计达 367.2 万人次，其中入境游客 2023/5 2023/9 2024/1 2024/4 177.5万人次，出境游客189.7万人次。 ➢ 国内游：出游热度不减，消费愈发理性 作者 五一数据持续验证出游热情的强烈，文旅部、交通运输部披露的旅游出行 分析师：邓文慧 人次均实现较 2019 年的明显增长。国内旅游出游人数创下历史新高的背 执业证书编号：S0590522060001 后或是供需共振，交通改善、文娱产品丰富及私家车保有量上行都助力居 邮箱：dengwh@glsc.com ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年05月06日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 汽车&通信&电子&军工 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 产业变革持续进行，连接器国产替代有望加速 深 汽车 沪深300 度 20% 研 投资要点： 究 3% 我们对通信、汽车、工控和军工四个行业连接器需求情况、竞争格局进行 分析，对国内龙头企业优势进行总结。建议关注通信和汽车高速连接器国 -13% 产替代、工控和军工连接器优质企业份额持续提升所带来的投资机会。 -30% ➢ 通信：高速背板需求旺盛，国产龙头有望突破 2023/5 2023/9 2024/1 2024/4 AI 服务器对传输速率的要求提升，高速背板连接器需求高增，我们测算 2024-2026 年中国 AI 服务器用高速背板连接器市场规模分别为 作者 19.45/28.85/42.10亿元，CAGR-3为48.52%。格局方面，外资占据较多市 分析师：高登 场份额，在 56G 及以下速率形成专利壁垒。以华丰科技为代表的国内厂商 执业证书编号：S0590523110004 通过持续的研发投入，已具备56G产品量产能力，同时112G产品已通过客 邮箱： ...