国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 [table_Authors] 韩其成(分析师) 郭浩然(分析师) 021-38676162 010-83939793 hanqicheng8@gtjas.com guohaoran025968@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880516030004 S0880524020002 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.10 12 万亿财政化债将提升基建公司盈利水平和资产质量 [Table_Industry] 建筑工程业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——建筑行业第 372 期周报 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 本报告导读： 推荐财政化债中国交建/中国铁建/中国中铁，新能源中国能建/中国电建，地产链中 国建筑，高股息隧道股份/四川路桥/中材国际，国改中工国际，低空经济苏交科等。 投资要点： [全国人大常委会批准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换 Table_Summary] 存量隐性债务的议案》。(1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to 22.20 CNY from the previous 20.96 CNY [2][4]. Core Insights - The poultry industry is experiencing high profitability, and pig farming profits are substantial with decreasing costs. The company is expected to maintain strong profits in its farming operations and increase its dividend payout ratio [3][4]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 1.48 CNY and 1.50 CNY respectively, with a downward revision from previous estimates of 1.62 CNY and 1.33 CNY [4]. - The company sold 1.19 billion poultry in October and is expected to maintain sales of 1.1 billion poultry in 2024, indicating stable profitability [4]. - The report highlights a decrease in farming costs, with pig farming costs dropping to 6.9-7 CNY per pound, driven by lower feed prices and improved efficiency [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Rating: Buy - Previous Rating: Buy - Target Price: 22.20 CNY (previously 20.96 CNY) - Current Price: 19.30 CNY [2]. Financial Forecast - Expected EPS for 2024: 1.48 CNY - Expected EPS for 2025: 1.50 CNY - Expected EPS for 2026: 0.97 CNY [4]. Market Data - Total Market Capitalization: 128,421 million CNY - Total Shares: 6,654 million (5,439 million circulating A shares) [5]. Profitability Insights - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.95 billion CNY, with a payout of 1.5 CNY per 10 shares [4]. - Historical dividend yields during profitable years were 4.26% and 3.87% in 2016 and 2019 respectively, indicating potential for increased dividends in the future [4].

021-38031658 田开轩(分析师) 021-38038673 tiankaixuan()26724@gtjas.com S0880524080006 登记编号 策略研究 / 2024.11.10 方奥(分析师) fangyi020833@gtjas.com S0880520120005 被动成交热度回升，价值赛道获资金流入 一被动资金流动性周观察 本报告导读: 上周被动资金净流入转负为正,成交占比略有四升,A500 ETF增量资金效应延续, 而双创 ETF 资金流出。行业展面,被动资金蟾续流入食品饮料、银行,流出电子。 投资要点: © 上周被动资金流入转负为正，全 A 成交占比有所回升,A500 发行 带来的增量效应持续。当前股票 ETF（即被动资金）总计 806 只, 总计规模2.95 万亿元,其中跟踪宽基指数的规模 ETF共245 只,规 模占比 59.7%，行业与主题 ETF 共 496 只，规模占比 17.4%。边际 上,上周被动资金份额减小 24.7 亿份,净值环比增加 1982.3 亿元。 从资金流动情况看,股票 ETF 上周资金净流入 23.2 亿元,自此前连 续三周净流出后首现净流入。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of CNY 8.4, up from the previous target of CNY 8.25 [4] Core Views - The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecasts have been revised downward to CNY 0.48/0.56/0.64 due to weak consumer demand impacting terminal sales [2] - The company's position as a leader in the home textile industry remains solid, and it is expected to achieve a higher-than-industry-average PE ratio of 15x for 2025 [2] - The company has launched a 2024 equity incentive plan, covering 148 key personnel, including vice presidents, CFO, and board secretary, with a total grant of 2.8% of the total shares [2] - The company's performance targets for 2025-2027 are set at a revenue or non-GAAP net profit growth rate of no less than 5%/10.25%/15.76% compared to 2024 [2] - The company's fundamentals are expected to bottom out and recover, with significant profit recovery anticipated in 2025, driven by promotional policies and improving US business [2] - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a projected 2024 dividend yield of around 6% [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 5,314 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2024 before recovering to CNY 5,268 million by 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 581 million in 2022, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and is expected to decline by 30.6% in 2024 before recovering to CNY 532 million by 2026 [1] - EPS for 2022 was CNY 0.70, expected to drop to CNY 0.48 in 2024 before recovering to CNY 0.64 by 2026 [1] - ROE was 13.9% in 2022, expected to drop to 9.8% in 2024 before recovering to 13.9% by 2026 [1] - The current PE ratio is 10.33, expected to rise to 15.09 in 2024 before declining to 11.28 by 2026 [1] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the textile and apparel industry, classified under the consumer discretionary sector [3] - The company's market cap is CNY 6,000 million, with a total of 831 million shares outstanding, of which 827 million are A-shares [5] - The company's 52-week stock price range is CNY 6.17-10.12 [5] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's net asset value per share is CNY 4.80, with a PB ratio of 1.5 [6] - The company's net debt ratio is -39.20%, indicating a strong financial position [6] - The company's ROIC is expected to improve from 7.8% in 2024 to 11.4% by 2026 [9] - The company's EV/EBITDA is expected to decline from 8.91 in 2024 to 6.92 by 2026 [9] Historical Performance and Trends - The company's stock price has declined by 21% over the past 12 months, underperforming the index by 32% [7] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 15% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory reduction in the franchise channel and losses in overseas furniture business [2] - The company has been actively optimizing its overseas business and controlling costs, with a 0.4 percentage point decrease in the expense ratio and a 17% reduction in inventory in Q3 2024 [2] Dividend Policy - The company paid an interim dividend of CNY 166 million in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 105% [2] - The company has a history of high dividend payouts, with payout ratios of 141%/88%/58% in 2021-2023, and is expected to continue this trend [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [2][3][6] Core Views - The building materials industry has digested pessimistic expectations in the Q3 2024 report, with leading companies showing stronger resilience. The revenue growth of the consumer building materials sector is expected to bottom out, with companies actively improving cash flow and expenses. The cement sector is seeing a seasonal price stabilization strategy, and there is an expectation of substantial improvement in Q4 and year-on-year comparisons for 2025. Glass profitability is accelerating towards a bottom, and cold repairs are gradually starting. The price recovery effects in fiberglass are differentiated, with leading companies outperforming [2][3][6] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Consumer building materials are expected to see revenue growth bottoming out, with companies proactively improving cash flow and expenses. In Q3, the revenue growth rate of the consumer building materials sector showed increased pressure compared to Q2, with sales volume dragging down more significantly. The industry is maintaining a strategy of expanding market share through lower-tier channels and adjusting the structure to increase retail [6][11] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The revenue growth rate in Q3 is under pressure, but the overall gross margin is stabilizing. Companies are controlling expenses, and leading firms are showing significant year-on-year improvements in operating cash flow. The impact of credit impairment losses on profitability remains, but the extent of aging impairment has been sufficiently addressed [6][11][12] 3. Cement Sector - The cement sector is implementing a "price stabilization through increases" strategy, laying a solid foundation for the peak season. The industry is seeing a gradual start to seasonal price increases, with a notable improvement in cooperation among companies. The release of the capacity replacement implementation plan is expected to set a tone for limiting overproduction, which could improve supply-demand dynamics [7][8] 4. Glass and Fiberglass - Glass profitability is accelerating towards a bottom, with high inventory leading to price declines. The industry is stabilizing prices through cold repairs and production cuts. In fiberglass, leading companies are significantly outperforming the industry in both volume and profit due to their differentiated product offerings and pricing power [8][9] 5. Recommended Companies - Recommended leading companies in the consumer building materials sector include Dongfang Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Tubao. In the cement sector, recommended companies are Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement. For glass and fiberglass, recommended companies include China Jushi, Xinyi Glass, Qibin Group, and Fuyao Glass [3][9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector [4]. Core Insights - The improvement of energy regulations supports the development of renewable energy, with the National Grid Research Institute projecting that by 2030, the national installed power capacity will exceed 5 billion kilowatts, with a 7-year CAGR of 8.0%. Renewable energy generation capacity is expected to exceed 2.8 billion kilowatts, with a 7-year CAGR of 15.0% [3][7]. - The formal issuance of the Energy Law in November 2024 emphasizes the priority of developing renewable energy and improving the consumption guarantee mechanism for renewable energy [3][7]. - The assessment of renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for 2023 shows a good completion rate, with national total/non-hydropower renewable energy consumption responsibility weights achieving 32.0%/18.1%, up by 0.4/2.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Events and Industry Views - The report highlights the completion of consumption responsibility weights and the flexibility in target setting across provinces, indicating a rational approach to energy consumption [2][8]. - The Energy Law is seen as a foundational step for sustainable development in renewable energy, filling a gap in the energy regulatory framework [3][7]. 2. Market Review - From November 4 to November 8, 2024, the electricity sector saw a modest increase of 1.38%, while the gas sector rose by 5.59%. The overall market performance was positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 5.50% [14][15]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, with specific recommendations for various segments: - Hydropower: Focus on high-quality large hydropower projects, recommending companies like Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy [12]. - Thermal Power: Select companies with advantageous locations and attractive dividends, recommending Guodian Power and Shenneng Shares [12]. - Nuclear Power: Highlighting the long-term return potential, recommending China General Nuclear Power and China Nuclear Power [12]. - Renewable Energy: Waiting for policy-driven improvements, recommending Yunnan Energy Investment for its high wind power ratio [12]. - Gas: Focusing on companies with improving free cash flow and dividend value, recommending China Resources Gas [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, reflecting a positive outlook due to the acceleration of debt resolution policies and the potential benefits from declining crude oil prices [4][6]. Core Insights - The introduction of a 10 trillion yuan local debt resolution policy is expected to stimulate economic recovery, benefiting related sectors. The report recommends leading cyclical companies with resilient performance and long-term growth potential, as well as new material leaders with stable demand growth [6][11]. - The outcome of the U.S. elections is anticipated to strengthen expectations for declining crude oil prices, which could benefit related fine chemical products [6][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of November 4-8, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.51%, the ChiNext Index increased by 9.32%, and the basic chemical index (CI005006) gained 6.96%, ranking 11th among 30 sectors [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended cyclical growth leaders include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Longbai Group, Yuanxing Energy, and Xingfa Group. Beneficiary stocks include Chuanheng Co. and Yuntianhua. New material leaders recommended are Ruifeng New Materials, Bluestar Technology, and Guoci Materials [12][26]. - For beneficiaries of declining oil prices, recommended stocks include Juhua Co., Jinhe Industrial, Dongyue Group for refrigerants, and Garden Biotech, New and Chengdu Pharmaceutical for vitamins [12][26]. Key Company Tracking - **Wanhua Chemical**: Q3 performance was below expectations, with revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit of 11.093 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.67% [14][15]. - **Hualu Hengsheng**: Q3 performance met expectations, with revenue of 25.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and a net profit of 3.049 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.16% [19][20]. - **Juhua Co.**: Maintained an "Overweight" rating, with Q3 revenue of 5.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, but a net profit increase of 64.76% [21][22]. - **Sailun Tire**: Q3 performance met expectations, with net profit of approximately 3.21-3.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.52%-61.98% [24][25]. Important Sub-Industry Tracking - The new materials sector is viewed positively, particularly for companies with high growth potential and technological advantages, such as Bluestar Technology and Ruifeng New Materials [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report rates the emerging energy industry as "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The resilience of the U.S. renewable energy sector remains strong following Trump's election, with significant growth expected in solar and energy storage [3][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading lithium battery companies and Tesla's supply chain, as well as companies benefiting from global energy storage demand [3][10] Summary by Sections 1. U.S. Solar Demand Assessment - The U.S. solar market is experiencing robust growth, with installed capacity reaching 32.4 GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 59.6% [6] - The share of new energy installations from solar has risen to 67% in the first half of 2024, supported by increasing PPA prices and declining system costs [6][8] 2. Energy Storage - Demand for large-scale energy storage remains resilient, with Tesla positioned as a key beneficiary [10][14] - The potential cancellation of the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) poses some risk to residential storage but is expected to have limited impact on large-scale storage [12][14] 3. Power Equipment - There is still room for growth in power grid demand, particularly for transformers, which have a significant export share to North America [16][18] - The North American market shows a strong demand for transformers, indicating a supply-demand gap [18] 4. Lithium Batteries - The report highlights the favorable conditions for Tesla's supply chain, with a focus on the growth of the U.S. electric vehicle market [20][22] - The U.S. electric vehicle market saw a slow growth rate during Trump's previous term, but the current landscape suggests a potential for increased sales and market penetration [20][21] 5. IRA and Regulatory Environment - The IRA has provided substantial tax incentives for solar and storage installations, which are crucial for market growth [9][24] - Potential adjustments to emission standards and the IRA could impact the electric vehicle supply chain and overall market dynamics [24][25][26] 6. Market Opportunities - The report recommends actively monitoring leading companies in lithium batteries, Tesla's supply chain, and major players in energy storage and solar sectors [3][10] - Companies such as CATL, BYD, and others are highlighted as key players in the lithium battery market [3][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company's performance is continuously improving, driven by growth in the optical communication and semiconductor sectors, indicating potential for sustained growth in 2024 [3][4]. - The target price has been raised to 61.50 CNY, reflecting a significant increase from the previous estimate of 32.77 CNY, indicating a positive outlook for the company's valuation [3][4]. Financial Summary - The EPS forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 0.60 CNY, 0.82 CNY, and 0.98 CNY respectively, with a reference to comparable companies' average valuation levels [4]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 showed a consistent improvement, with quarterly revenues of 0.94 billion CNY, 1.18 billion CNY, and 1.20 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.64%, 32.12%, and 50.97% respectively [4]. - The gross profit margins for the same quarters were 32.10%, 40.73%, and 40.83%, indicating a trend of improving profitability [4]. Business Development - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to increased demand for optical communication components driven by AI computing power, as well as ongoing expansion in emerging fields such as semiconductor equipment and biomedical sectors [4]. - The company is making rapid progress in the semiconductor equipment sector and is gradually realizing performance increments in optical communication [4]. - The company has established partnerships with major global optical module manufacturers, which is expected to enhance its market position in the optical communication sector [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant appreciation, with a 12-month absolute increase of 12% and a 3-month increase of 85% [8]. - The total market capitalization is reported at 5,276 million CNY, with a total share capital of 129 million shares [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The implementation of debt reduction policies is expected to open up space for consumption recovery, with oversold growth stocks likely to rebound first [3][4]. - The report emphasizes a shift in consumer demand and market dynamics, particularly in the liquor and snack sectors, driven by favorable policy changes and improving economic conditions [8][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Debt Reduction Policy Implementation - On November 8, the National People's Congress approved a resolution to increase local government debt limits by 6 trillion yuan for replacing hidden debts, which is expected to alleviate financial pressures and boost social consumption [8][9]. 2. Liquor Sector: Expectation Reversal and Cyclical Recovery - The liquor industry is currently in an adjustment phase due to inventory cycles, but the market is optimistic about recovery as consumer demand improves [9][10]. - The report notes that the current valuation of the liquor index is around the historical 20% percentile, suggesting potential for price recovery ahead of fundamental improvements [9][10]. 3. Consumer Goods: Focus on Oversold Growth, Snacks Preferred - The overall demand in the consumer goods sector is recovering, with the snack segment showing strong growth potential due to favorable market conditions and cost reductions [20][21]. - The report highlights that the snack sector is characterized by high growth, low valuation, and low inventory levels, aligning well with market trends [20]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stocks with expected turnaround and fundamental improvement, particularly in the liquor sector with companies like Moutai and Wuliangye, and in the snack sector with companies like Three Squirrels and Jianzi Foods [23][24].