h 股 c r a e 票 s e 研 yR 究 tiu q E Se[Tcatboler_B RaseicpInofor] t: P roperty Sector 中文版 Chunli Zhan 詹春立 行业报告： 房 地产行业 Chinese version (852) 2509 7745 james.zhan@gtjas.com.hk 7 May 2024 [“Tab以le_M旧ainI换nfo]新 ”加速房地产去库存 行 tr o 业 p e  中央政府发出房地产去库存的强烈信号。中央政治局会议于2024年4月底召开。 R 报 r o t 会 中议 央期 政间 府首，中 次央 指政 出府 供表 需示 不要 匹加 配快 的房 问地 题产 后去 ，上库 周存 中， 央优 政化 府新 提增 出住 了房 更供 加应 明。继 确去 的年 解决7 方月 [R Taabtilne_gI:n vestInfo] Outp Me ar if no tar inm ed 告 c e 向。我们认为，如何平衡住房供需的问题已经受到中央政府的高度重视。而这也 S 是建立房地产发展新模式的前提。我们预计近期将出台更多的需求端政 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Energy Operations sector [1]. Core Insights - In March 2024, China's electricity consumption growth slowed to 7.4% year-on-year, reaching 795 TWh, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points compared to January-February 2024 [1]. - National power generation growth also slowed in March 2024, with industrial power generation increasing by 2.8% year-on-year, down 5.5 percentage points from January-February 2024 [1]. - Hydropower, wind power, and solar power generation showed strong growth, with wind power generation increasing by 16.8% year-on-year and solar power generation rising by 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - As of the end of February 2024, China's cumulative solar power installed capacity reached 648 GW, a year-on-year increase of 56.9% [1]. - In March 2024, China's wind power generation exceeded 100 TWh, setting a record for the highest monthly generation by a single country, surpassing the total generation of all European and North American countries combined [1]. Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - March 2024 electricity consumption growth slowed to 7.4% year-on-year, reaching 795 TWh [1]. Power Generation - National power generation growth slowed, with industrial power generation increasing by 2.8% year-on-year [1]. - Hydropower, wind power, and solar power generation growth accelerated [1]. Renewable Energy Growth - Wind power generation increased by 16.8% year-on-year, while solar power generation rose by 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Cumulative solar power installed capacity reached 648 GW, a 56.9% year-on-year increase [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "Outperform" rating for independent power producers focusing on green transformation strategies, such as China Resources Power and China Power [1]. - It also favors pure renewable energy producers with high dividend and growth potential, like Longyuan Power [1].

Market Performance - The Nasdaq index has increased by approximately 3% since the beginning of the year, while the Hang Seng index has decreased by over 3% during the same period[7] - From the low point of the Hang Seng index around January 20, it has risen nearly 8%, compared to a mere 1% increase in the Nasdaq index[36] Macroeconomic Factors - The pricing of Hong Kong stocks is influenced by three main components: global macro pricing, geopolitical factors, and the performance of the Chinese economy[3][20] - The Chinese economy has shown stability this year, with PMI and trade data performing better than expected, which has helped stabilize investor confidence[4][8] Geopolitical Influence - Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, the Hang Seng index has remained relatively unaffected by these events this year[7][8] Policy Support - On April 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced five measures to enhance cooperation between capital markets in Hong Kong and mainland China, indicating increasing policy support for the Hong Kong market[9][17] Interest Rates - The actual interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar has consistently been lower than that of the US dollar, and the recent widening of the Hong Kong dollar's discount against the US dollar suggests that interest rates may have a smaller impact on Hong Kong stock investments than previously thought[16][21] Investment Trends - High dividend yields have become a focal point for investors in Hong Kong stocks, with sectors like telecommunications, energy, and finance performing well this year[23] - The trend of capital inflow from mainland China into Hong Kong stocks has been significant, driven by more attractive valuations and higher dividend rates[23] Market Dynamics - The recent performance of the Hang Seng index compared to the Nasdaq indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, suggesting a negative correlation between the two markets, which could present important hedging strategies[31]

周浩 越南经济展望:守得云开见月明 · 步入 2024 年,越南经济复苏之路愈发清晰,在全球供应链和投资资本流动 性改善、周边国家经济复苏等因素共同作用下,出口回暖拉动越南第一季度 GDP 强劲复苏,同比增长 5.66%,较之前 4年同期水平显著提升。 · 作为典型的出口导向型经济体,全球需求疲软对越南出口影响极大。2024 年第一季度,在主要贸易伙伴需求回暖的拉动下,越南出口同比增长 17%至 931 亿美元。往前看,美国库存周期见底对出口边际影响已经消砕,越南出 口增速有望持续上行。 · 作为经济支柱产业,越南电子行业在过去 10年间经历了爆炸式发展。2022 年,越南贸易顺差额为 112 亿美元,而电子工业的贸易顺差就高达 112.46 亿美元。2023年越南科技行业更是"好事连连",全球科技巨头陆续表示将 会发起或者扩大在越南的业务规模。 · 2023 年下半年以来,越南政府和开发商"三重组合拳"共同发力推动房地 产行业复苏。越南两个核心城市河内和胡志明市房地产已经出现量价齐升的 态势,这也显示出房地产行业或已寻得底部区间。往前看,在政策和利率环 境改善的双重加持下,越南房地产行业有望再次进入上行空间 ...

Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has significantly increased, reflecting a market that is pricing in various factors beyond just economic fundamentals[7] - The GDPNow model indicates a first-quarter growth rate close to 3%, which is notably higher than previous market forecasts[7] Market Trends - U.S. stock markets have been under pressure due to rising Treasury yields, despite a strong performance earlier in the year[8] - Concerns about macroeconomic factors are growing, with the recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields becoming a persistent worry for investors[12] Inflation and Interest Rates - There is a re-evaluation of medium to long-term inflation expectations, which is a critical topic for bond investors given the robust performance of the U.S. economy[3][31] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts in June has diminished, raising questions about market optimism regarding future rate adjustments[16] Currency and Commodity Insights - The U.S. dollar is strengthening as the interest rate differential with the Eurozone widens, leading to a depreciation of currencies like the Euro and Yen[27] - Gold remains a favored investment despite perceptions of it being overpriced, as it continues to be viewed as a logical investment choice[4][32] Export Performance - China's March export figures fell short of market expectations, impacting the overall sentiment in the Hong Kong market[9][18]

策 略 研 究 报 告 [Table_Title] 策略研究报告 2024年 4月 15日 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 黄 凯鸿 +852 2509 7214 kaihong.huang@gtjas.com.hk [Table_Summary] 变化正在出现，逆向提高港股优质资产配置 随海外风险出清和国内政策支持，恒生科技指数为代表的行业估值将迎来持续修复 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2020/012020/032020/052020/072020/092020/112021/012021/032021/052021/072021/092021/112022/012022/032022/052022/072022/092022/112023/012023/032023/052023/072023/092023/112024/012024/03 ERP 均值-SD 有数据以来均值 均值+SD 数据来源：iFinD，国泰君安国际 港府向业界咨询新税收规则草案提振情绪，美国预期降息时点再度延后，上周港股整体上行。国 内方面，3 月 CPI 超预期回 ...

上周是海外超级央行周，红利资产在大势震荡中占优 数据来源：iFinD，国泰君安国际 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 11 P 一、 港股表现回顾 上周是海外超级央行周，港股震荡回落。上周一，国家统计局公布了 1-2 月经济数据，消费、工业增加值和固定资产投资（房地产投资除外）增 速超市场预期，提振港股市场。海外方面，3 月 19 日，日本央行上调政 策利率，由-0.1%上调至 0~0.1%，并取消收益率曲线控制（YCC）政策。 美联储 3 月议息会议公布的点阵图维持 2024 年降息 3 次的预测，市场预 期下调至降息 2 次。议息会议后美股和美债价格上涨，黄金价格突破历 史新高，次日港股跟随上涨，材料、能源和建筑等行业涨幅居前。周四 晚 Markit 3 月 PMI 数据显示美国制造业强劲，创下近两年来的最快增速， 美债收益率反弹，叠加商务部例行新闻发布会上表示中方反对美方将经 贸科技问题政治化、武器化，次日港股受外围影响回落，空头情绪增加。 全周，恒指累计下跌 1.3%，国企指数下跌 1.1%，恒生科技指数下跌 2.7%。行业方面，电信业和咨询科技行业表现靠前。 图 1：恒生指数和恒 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the nonferrous metals sector [2][6]. Core Insights - Market expectations have improved, focusing on the progress of fundamental improvements. China continues to implement more stimulus policies, including equipment upgrades and trade-in policies for consumer goods, lowering down payment ratios for passenger car loans, and further relaxing real estate control policies. The U.S. economy still faces inflationary pressures, and interest rate cut expectations remain unclear. Despite enhanced market expectations, inventory and consumption demand remain under pressure, necessitating attention to the improvement of fundamentals [4][6]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Sector - Aluminum consumption demand continues to improve, but inventory pressure persists. The total supply of primary aluminum remains stable, with production reductions in Yunnan province and the release of new capacity in Inner Mongolia. As of last week, China's total aluminum capacity was 42.08 million tons, with a utilization rate of 94%. It is expected that aluminum supply will remain stable over the next three months [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of major aluminum processing enterprises rose by 1.5 percentage points to 62.8%. The utilization rates for aluminum extrusion products and aluminum foil increased by 5.2 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points to 57.0% and 76.7%, respectively. Domestic aluminum inventory increased by 21,000 tons to 842,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 800 tons to 260,000 tons [5]. Copper Sector - Copper prices have been driven by expectations of production cuts from smelting companies. Last week, copper prices rose by 5.74% to USD 9,072 per ton. In February 2024, China's refined copper production decreased by 2.01% month-on-month to 950,000 tons. Due to supply tightness, copper concentrate processing fees remain low, and the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has recommended that copper smelting companies reduce production and delay new projects. The utilization rate of copper rod enterprises fell by 3.02 percentage points to 71.32%. A rebound in copper prices is expected in the coming weeks [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends China Hongqiao (01378 HK) and Zijin Mining (02899 HK) as investment opportunities within the nonferrous metals sector [6].

h 股 c r a e 票 s e R 研 y tiu 究 q E [STaebclet_oBras RicIenfpo]o rt: Nonferrous Metals Sector 中文版 Kevin Guo 郭勇 行业报告： 有 色金属行业 Chinese version (852) 2509 5317 yong.guo@gtjas.com.hk 20 February 2024 [T双able_周Main报Info]： 美联 储降息预期反复 行 tr o 业 p e R 报 r o  美联储降息预期反复，重点关注库存变化。通胀数据的变化迫使美联储官员更 tc 加鹰派。受此影响，市场预计首次降息时间将从5月推迟至6月，总降息次数 [RTaabtilne_gI:n vestInfo] Outperform 告 e S 减少至4次。中国央行于2024年2月5日下调存款准备金率50个基点，表明 Maintained 中国货币政策趋势不变。春节期间基本金属库存均有所增长，节后库存变化将 评级： 跑赢大市 (维持) 影响金属价格。 2  铝消费淡季疲弱，关注库存变化。原铝供应总体稳定。春节传统淡季，铝加工 No ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The market consensus indicates a 10% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, with the first cut likely postponed to June[4] - The expected total rate cut for the year is around 90 basis points, aligning closely with the Fed's dot plot of 85 basis points[8] - The anticipated magnitude of rate cuts could be approximately 200 basis points, suggesting around 8 cuts throughout the cycle[25] Group 2: Economic Performance and Inflation - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at about 2% in 2024, with core inflation expected to stabilize around 3%[4][24] - Current economic performance may exceed potential growth rates, which are estimated at around 1.7%[24] - The recent unexpected rise in inflation indicates significant uncertainties regarding the long-term inflation trajectory[9] Group 3: Market Reactions and Strategies - The first rate cut is crucial for market positioning, with recommendations to buy U.S. Treasuries and short the dollar[5][27] - If four rate cuts occur this year, particularly in the fourth quarter, the market may experience prolonged volatility before a significant rally[26] - The yield on 2-year Treasuries could reach 4.3%-4.5% by year-end if 100 basis points of cuts are implemented[27]