Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies within the automobile, banking, computer, machinery, and media & culture sectors, indicating a favorable outlook for these sectors over the next 6 to 18 months [3]. Core Insights - The target price for LEAPMOTOR has been revised upwards from HK$39.00 to HK$54.00, reflecting a positive adjustment in earnings estimates [1][3]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Geely Auto, Great Wall Motor, BYD Company, and other companies, with projected revenue growth and favorable earnings estimates for the upcoming fiscal years [3]. Summary by Sector Automobiles - Geely Auto: Target price of RMB 16.50 with projected revenues increasing from 5.308 billion in 2023 to 14.058 billion in 2024 [3]. - Great Wall Motor: Target price of RMB 16.00 with revenues expected to rise from 7.022 billion in 2023 to 12.766 billion in 2024 [3]. - BYD Company: Target price of RMB 300.00 with revenues projected to grow from 30.041 billion in 2023 to 41.316 billion in 2024 [3]. Banking - BOC Hong Kong: Target price of HKD 33.50 with earnings estimates increasing from 3.095 in 2023 to 4.020 in 2026 [3]. Computer - VSTECS: Target price of HKD 6.16 with earnings expected to rise from 0.656 in 2023 to 0.963 in 2026 [3]. Machinery - LK TECH: Target price of HKD 4.45 with projected earnings increasing from 0.353 in 2023 to 0.429 in 2026 [3]. Media & Culture - Tencent Music: Target price of RMB 51.44 with earnings estimates increasing from 1.537 in 2023 to 2.705 in 2026 [3].

Market Performance - The Nasdaq 100 fell by 3.59%, marking its largest daily drop since December 2022[3] - The S&P 500 declined by 2.27%, while the equal-weighted S&P dropped only 1.17%[5] - The semiconductor index SOXX plummeted by 5.32%, retreating nearly 15% from its peak[5] Economic Indicators - The Markit Manufacturing PMI for July recorded at 49.5, the lowest in seven months, raising concerns about slowing economic growth[3] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 8.1 basis points to 4.41%, indicating increased bets on a rate cut in July[3] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2.2 basis points to 4.27%, suggesting mixed signals regarding recession risks[3] AI Sector Insights - Market concerns focus on whether the growth premium of large-cap stocks driven by AI can be sustained without significant breakthroughs in AI applications[6] - Analysts suggest that future AI developments may only yield quantitative improvements rather than qualitative breakthroughs, impacting investment strategies in the AI sector[6] Market Dynamics - The stock market's recent rise appears detached from macroeconomic factors, with a focus shifting from "denominator" influences to industry trends[8] - Despite the recent downturn, the Nasdaq has gained over 15% year-to-date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has only increased by 5.7%[8]

Economic Performance - In Q2 2024, Vietnam's GDP grew by 6.93%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 5.5%-6.0%[2] - The average GDP growth for the first half of 2024 was 6.42%, close to the government's target range of 6.0%-6.5%[23] - The industrial and construction sectors contributed 45% to GDP growth, with a growth rate of 8.3%[24] Manufacturing and Investment - The industrial production index (IIP) increased by 10.9% year-on-year in June 2024, up from 8.9% in May[25] - Foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments reached approximately $15.18 billion by the end of June, a 13.1% increase compared to the same period in 2023[33] - Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.7 in June, the highest level since May 2022, indicating improved business conditions[27] Trade and Inflation - In June, exports totaled $32.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, while imports reached $30.2 billion, growing by 13.1%[34] - Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of $2.94 billion in June, reflecting strong trade activity[34] - Inflation in June 2024 was 4.33%, slightly above the controllable limit of 4.0%, but within the government's target range of 4.0%-4.5%[16]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell's testimony is perceived as "dovish," indicating a potential interest rate cut in September[1] - The market is beginning to accept a new economic paradigm with inflation and growth rates above 2%[2] - Powell highlighted that the neutral interest rate has risen, suggesting that policy rates may need to remain elevated for a longer period[4] Group 2: Economic Implications - The discussion around the neutral interest rate reflects a fundamental shift in views on the U.S. economy[14] - Inflation is unlikely to return to 2% or below, and economic growth is expected to stay above 2%[28] - The era of low interest rates for the dollar is considered over, indicating a shift in monetary policy[28] Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock market's strong performance may be a response to Powell's dovish stance[1] - There is a growing consensus between the market and the Federal Reserve regarding higher neutral rates and inflation targets[36] - The market is prepared for a potential rate cut, but the path may not be as straightforward as anticipated[36]

Group 1: Market Reactions to Trump's Incident - Trump's shooting incident has become a significant market variable, potentially increasing short-term risk aversion[1] - Generally, Trump-related trades suggest inflation and rising long-term interest rates, but the current sentiment leans towards rate cuts[6] - Following the incident, there has been a surge in betting on Trump's election chances, surpassing interest levels seen after presidential debates[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The market is now betting on a 25 to 50 basis point rate cut in September, influenced by recent economic data, including a lower-than-expected CPI for June[23] - The short-term risk of rising U.S. Treasury yields is considered low, indicating that long-term rates may struggle to rise[6] - If the market anticipates inflationary pressures from a potential Trump presidency, U.S. dollar rates could increase, leading to a stronger dollar[10] Group 3: Implications for Stock Markets - Hong Kong stocks have shown a positive trend in response to rate cut expectations, with a focus on high dividend and TMT sectors[30] - The potential for U.S. rate cuts may lead to increased monetary easing in China, enhancing the attractiveness of high-dividend strategies[30] - The tech sector is gaining attention due to emerging opportunities in areas like autonomous driving, indicating new growth avenues for major tech firms[30]

Labor Market Insights - The difficulty in interpreting the U.S. non-farm payroll report has increased over the past few years, with investors seeking insights into the labor market and economy while finding the data itself questionable[2] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, driven significantly by an increase in labor participation, particularly among men[23] - In June, the job growth exceeded expectations, but prior data for April and May was revised down by 57,000 and 54,000 jobs respectively, leading to a reduction of 90,000 in average job growth for Q2 compared to Q1[10] Economic Projections - The market is betting on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, particularly after the recent employment data and rising unemployment rate[3] - The average unemployment rate for the last three months is approaching the Sahm Rule threshold of 0.5%, indicating potential recession concerns[27] - Wage growth has slowed, with June's year-on-year wage growth at 3.8%, down from 6% in March, reflecting reduced pressure on wages[27] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm payroll data release, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3%, and the market is increasingly anticipating a rate cut in September[11] - The euro has strengthened above 1.08 against the dollar, as the latter weakens with declining interest rates[11] - Overall, the report suggests a resilient U.S. economy, with a "soft landing" being the most appropriate description despite rising unemployment[19]

Group 1: Political Landscape - Trump has a significant lead after the first presidential debate, causing disappointment among Democrats regarding Biden's performance[1] - The decision for Democrats to either support or abandon Biden is crucial in the near future[4] - Biden's potential withdrawal from the race could lead to a rapid shift in market dynamics favoring Trump[22] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. data indicates a dual cooling of the economy and inflation, with expectations for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to slide towards 4.20%[2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow data suggests further signs of economic cooling, impacting interest rate movements[7][18] - Core inflation in the U.S. is expected to approach 3%, reinforcing market expectations for two rate cuts within the year[7] Group 3: Market Reactions - The market's trading style has become increasingly extreme, influenced by hedge funds' roles[22] - A potential Biden withdrawal would shift market focus to upcoming non-farm payroll and inflation data[18] - The core of the Trump trade is the steepening of the yield curve, with short-term rates likely to decline regardless of the election outcome[36]

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告2024年6月21日 海 外 宏 观 研 究 根本上而言，这些投资都需要货币政策出现宽松，但是美联储降息一拖再 拖，叠加短期利率一直高于长端利率，这对传统交易策略形成了巨大挑战。 农林中央金库此番操作意味着其不认为欧美货币政策会发生实质性的转向， 同时也隐含了日本国内的投资机会也开始增多。 美国方面，尽管经济数据表现一般，但总体上仍然呈现出相对更强的经济动 能，因此市场看到了相对更强的美元。同时，10 年美债利率也运行在 4.3% 的下方，并没有伴随美元汇率而走高。这种走势一般发生在美国经济相对表 现更好的时候，而眼下，市场因为很难把握美联储的降息时点，从而不得不 放弃做空美元。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 Page 1 of 4 P 宏观研究报告 [ T a b l e _ M a r g i n 2 ] 宏 观 研 究 报 告 6 月 18 日周二，日本第五大银行 Norinchukin Bank 农林中央金库宣布， 将在截至 2025年 3月的一年内出售规模超过 10万亿日元（630亿美元） 的美国国债和欧洲债券。这项决定的做出，是因为该银行此前错误押注 欧 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield unexpectedly rose, surpassing 4.3%, influenced by higher-than-expected Australian inflation data[4] - Australia's May CPI inflation rate was reported at 4.0%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.8% and the previous value of 3.6%[4] - The rise in Australian inflation led to a reversal in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with speculation of potential rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia[9] Group 2: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index has been climbing, putting significant pressure on other currencies, with the Japanese yen falling to 160.82 per dollar, the lowest since 1986[17] - The offshore Chinese yuan also weakened, briefly falling below 7.30 against the dollar[4] - The dollar's strength is attributed to political uncertainties in Europe, particularly regarding the upcoming French elections[10] Group 3: Market Trends - Historically, the U.S. dollar index tends to perform strongly in the third quarter and weakens in the fourth quarter, raising questions about future trends as the third quarter of 2024 approaches[5] - The rise in long-term interest rates indicates that bond traders are beginning to price in new variables, despite a lack of significant data releases[14]

Group 1: Election Context - The first presidential debate between Biden and Trump took place on June 28, 2024, with Trump reportedly winning according to CNN, where about two-thirds of viewers favored his performance[4] - Biden's approval rating is low, with only 40% of respondents satisfied with his performance, which is lower than Trump's approval during a similar period[7][15] - The presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024, marking a critical period for both candidates[35] Group 2: Key States and Polling - The election outcome heavily depends on "swing states," with seven key states holding a total of 93 electoral votes[23] - Trump has a significant lead in five of these swing states, with advantages ranging from 3% to nearly 6%[23] - In Michigan and Wisconsin, both candidates are nearly tied, indicating a competitive landscape[23] Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's economic policies are perceived as more expansionary, potentially leading to higher inflation, which has contributed to his lead in the polls[20][26] - The strong performance of the dollar is linked to Trump's favorable polling, as market sentiment shifts in anticipation of the election[20][26] Group 4: Debate Impact - Historical data suggests that televised debates rarely have a decisive impact on election outcomes, despite their potential to shift public opinion[16] - The focus of the debates is likely to be on candidates' abilities to address key voter concerns, such as the economy and immigration[16]