证券研究报告 （优于大市，维持） 《机械板块2024Q2持仓分析》 赵玥炜（机械行业首席分析师） SAC号码：S0850520070002 联系人：欧阳天奕 2024年7月28日 板块表现：2024年4月1日到6月30日，2024Q2申万行业机械板块指数下降5.67%，沪深300指数 累计涨跌幅为-2.14%，机械板块跑输沪深300指数3.53pct，在36个一级子行业中排名第18位。 SW 机械各子行业中工程机械（+5.31%）、轨交设备（+3.35%）涨幅居前，专用设备、通用设 备、自动化设备板块下跌，分别为-6.53%、-11.69%、-11.72%。 持仓情况：机械行业2024Q2机构持仓比重2.98%，环比-0.02pct，处于2012Q4以来63.00%的历 史分位水平。24Q2末机械设备行业（申万一级行业）全部基金重仓持股低配1.14%，低配比例 环比-0.43pct，低配幅度持续下降。2024Q2基金重仓具体情况如下： a) 细分行业：基金重仓工控、工程机械、油服、轨交装备等领域公司。 b) 持股变化：从持股机构数量来看，2024Q2前十名分别是汇川技术、三一重工、徐工机械、杰瑞 股份、中国中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's copper concentrate production increased by 42% YoY in H1 2024, with significant growth in copper and molybdenum concentrate output [3][4] - The company's H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 24.977 billion, up 10% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.621 billion, up 8% YoY [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 21.06% in H1 2024, up 4.55 pct YoY, while net margin increased to 11.00%, up 1.10 pct YoY [4] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with the Yulong Copper Mine expansion project progressing as planned [4] - The report forecasts EPS of RMB 1.56, 1.87, and 1.95 for 2024-2026, with a target price range of RMB 20.23-21.79 based on 13-14x 2024 PE [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 13.2% YoY in 2024 to RMB 48.397 billion, with net profit projected to increase by 32.9% YoY to RMB 3.708 billion [6] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve to 19.9% in 2024, up from 18.0% in 2023, with further increases to 20.6% and 21.0% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][9] - The company's ROE is expected to rise to 20.8% in 2024, up from 18.3% in 2023, and reach 21.1% in 2025 before declining slightly to 18.9% in 2026 [6][9] Business Segments - Copper products accounted for the majority of revenue in 2023 at RMB 28.466 billion, with a gross margin of 15.23%, expected to improve to 18.02% in 2024 [7] - Zinc products generated RMB 4.968 billion in revenue in 2023, with a gross margin of 15.40%, projected to increase to 16.92% in 2024 [7] - Molybdenum concentrate had the highest gross margin at 92.29% in 2023, with revenue of RMB 1.160 billion, expected to grow to RMB 1.189 billion in 2024 [7] Valuation and Comparables - The company's 2024E PE is estimated at 9.82x, lower than the industry average of 13.8x, with a PB of 2.04x and PS of 0.75x [9] - Comparable companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum have higher 2024E PE ratios of 14.6x and 14.1x, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the pig farming sector, indicating that pig prices are expected to continue rising, with specific recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector experienced a decline of 4.4% this week, ranking 28th among Shenwan's primary industries, with only fruit and vegetable processing and aquaculture showing slight increases [4]. - The average price of live pigs is reported at 19.2 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.7%. The price of 15kg piglets rose by 5.6% to 681 CNY/head, while the price of 50kg sows increased by 0.2% to 1631 CNY/head [5]. - A decrease in pig feed production by 7.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year suggests a tightening supply of pigs, which is likely to support higher pig prices [5]. - The report highlights the recovery in the aquaculture sector, with prices for various fish species showing positive trends, indicating an overall improvement in the industry [6]. - The white feather broiler industry is also expected to see a recovery in profitability due to rising chick prices and decreasing feed costs [6]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report emphasizes the potential for rising pig prices due to a decrease in feed production and ongoing supply constraints. It recommends focusing on companies with strong cost control and financial stability [5][7]. Aquaculture - The report notes a recovery in fish prices, with specific attention to the benefits for leading companies in the aquaculture feed sector, such as Haida Group [6][7]. Poultry - The white feather broiler market is showing signs of recovery, with rising chick prices and improved profitability expected for downstream operations [6][7]. Biotechnology - The report discusses the ongoing commercialization of genetically modified crops, highlighting opportunities for companies with technological advantages in this sector [6][7].

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/建筑工程 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -26.32% -21.05% -15.79% -10.53% -5.26% 0.00% 建筑工程 海通综指 2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《重点推荐中国化学、柏诚股份》 2024.07.22 《月度跟踪-6 月基建投资放缓，对外承包 工程新签提速》2024.07.17 《建筑工程行业 2024 中期策略报告：攻 守兼备，出海突围》2024.06.13 分析师:张欣劼 Tel:(010)58067906 Email:zxj12156@haitong.com 证书:S0850518020001 分析师:郭好格 Tel:(010)58067828 Email:ghg14711@haitong.com 证书:S0850524060001 专业工程受益设备更新/先导产业加速 [Table_Summar ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/机械工业/新能源板块 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 新能源板块 海通综指 -22.69% -17.25% -11.81% -6.37% -0.93% 4.51% 2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《我国锂电产业链拟出海投资额达 5648 亿元，特斯拉签约 15.3GWh 储能大单》 2024.07.20 《6 月新能源车市占率稳步提升，动力电 池产销同环比继续保持增长》2024.07.15 《价格底部维稳且供给收缩，光伏当前已 处底部》2024.07.14 分析师:徐柏乔 Tel:(021)23219171 Email:xbq6583@haitong.com 证书:S0850513090008 联系人:吴志鹏 Tel:(021)23215736 Email:wzp15273@haitong.com 联系人:罗青 Tel:(021)231 ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/汽车与零配件 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -24.64% -19.45% -14.27% -9.09% -3.90% 1.28% 汽车与零配件 海通综指 2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《以旧换新补贴加码，利好乘用车、商 用车销量》2024.07.26 《特斯拉公布 Q2 业绩，营收同比微 增》2024.07.24 《国常会提出加大汽车报废更新补贴力 度，宝马中国表示"重点关注业务质 量"》2024.07.21 分析师:刘一鸣 Tel:(021)23154145 Email:lym15114@haitong.com 证书:S0850522120003 分析师:张觉尹 Tel:(021)23185705 Email:zjy15229@haitong.com 证书:S0850523020001 分析师:房乔华 Tel:(021)2318 ...

[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|------------------------| | 07[Table_StockInfo 月 26日收盘价（元）] | 2.35 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 2.24-4.46 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 6287/5959 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 14775/14003 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《23 年收入同增 4% | ，数智化转型开花结果》 | | 2024.05.12 | | | 《23Q3 收入同增 6% | ，线性服务能力持续拓 | | 展》2023.11.27 | | | 《数字化转型开花结果，持续迈向家居产业服 | | | 务平台》2023.09.23 | | | 市场表现 | | [Table_QuoteInfo] 居然之家 海通综指 -45.61% -35.61% -25.61% -15.61% -5.61% 4. ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/房地产 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 房地产 海通综指 -32.20% -24.98% -17.76% -10.55% -3.33% 3.89% 2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《对央行调降利率政策的点评：小幅调降 LPR，增强购买力和释放需求》 2024.07.24 《二十届三中全会房地产领域精神解读： 租购并举，构建房地产新模式》 2024.07.24 《第 29 周新房成交同比增速回落，供销 比回落》2024.07.22 分析师:涂力磊 Tel:021-23185710 Email:tll5535@haitong.com 证书:S0850510120001 分析师:谢盐 Tel:(021)23185696 Email:xiey@haitong.com 证书:S0850511010019 第 30 周新房成交同比增速回落，供销比回 ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/煤炭 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 煤炭 海通综指 -16.21% -4.29% 7.62% 19.54% 31.45% 43.37% 2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《6 月产量恢复超预期，关注库存去化情 况》2024.07.21 《6 月煤炭进口仍小幅增长，煤价快速反 弹后趋稳》2024.07.14 《高温如期而至，澳洲焦煤矿因火灾停 产》2024.07.07 分析师 [Table_AuthorInfo] :李淼 Tel:(010)58067998 Email:lm10779@haitong.com 证书:S0850517120001 分析师:王涛 Tel:(021)23185633 Email:wt12363@haitong.com 证书:S0850520090001 分析师:吴杰 Tel:(021)23183818 Email ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024 年 07 月 28 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 信息服务 海通综指 -38.06% -29.57% -21.07% -12.58% -4.09% 4.40% 2023/7 2023/10 2024/1 2024/4 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《深入推进 DRG/DIP 2.0 版分组工作， 医疗 IT 建设有望提速》2024.07.24 《二十届三中全会：抓紧打造自主可控的 产业链供应链，因地制宜发展新质生产 力》2024.07.22 《计算机行业跟踪周报 348 期：科技体制 改革有望持续深化，长春 127 亿发展车路 云》2024.07.20 分析师:杨林 Tel:(021)23183969 Email:yl11036@haitong.com 证书:S0850517080008 分析师:杨蒙 Tel:(021)23185700 Email:ym13254@haitong.com 证书:S0 ...