国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 1、我们提出了有别于市场的研究框架，并在过往到验证。基于此，我们认为猪价在未来或先稳 后降，并在年末降至低位。产能去化是行业当前主题，关注价格、政策、疫病的催化。考虑当前 行业趋势及估值低位，重点推荐生猪养殖板块，推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、巨星农牧、神农集团， 相关标的德康农牧。 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 2、经济、资金和供需演绎下的债市下行空间。 3、离岛免税销售降幅明显收窄、客单价强势反弹，数据修复迹象逐步确立。叠加封关政策推进、 "即买即退"落地与对美加税背景，免税行业迎来配置新窗口。 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 行业专题研究：农业《猪周期：产能去化的趋势与节奏》 2025-06-20 林逸丹（分析师）021-38676666、王艳君（分析师）021-38676666、巩健（分析师）021-38676666 年初至今价格极致稳定的背后。年初至今价格十分平稳，代表了供需在这一价格水 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations. However, inflationary concerns have intensified, leading to downward revisions in economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, alongside an increase in unemployment rate predictions and price index forecasts [2][10][11] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, indicating significant uncertainty regarding future inflation trends. Tariff measures require time to affect consumer prices, and geopolitical issues in the Middle East may further exacerbate inflation [2][10][11] - The market is currently exhibiting signs of stagflation trading, with expectations of a potential recovery trading phase in the latter half of the year as tax reduction measures and debt ceiling increases are implemented [3][12] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion Industry - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted, signaling an acceleration in the industrialization of nuclear fusion. The company is a leading producer of high-temperature superconducting materials, holding over 80% of the domestic market share for second-generation high-temperature superconducting tapes [5][20][22] - The global market for high-temperature superconducting materials is projected to grow from 790 million yuan in 2024 to over 10.5 billion yuan by 2030, driven by applications in controllable nuclear fusion and other downstream industries [6][22][23] - Shanghai Superconductor's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 240 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 187.4%. The company is anticipated to achieve profitability in 2024 after previous losses [6][22][23] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The heavy truck market in China is showing signs of recovery, with a projected 16% year-on-year increase in sales to 1.06 million units in 2025, driven by the implementation of the vehicle replacement policy [17][18] - In May 2025, domestic heavy truck sales reached 89,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The market is expected to benefit from the ongoing vehicle replacement initiatives [18][19] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The demand for photoinitiators is increasing due to their expanding application scenarios, leading to rising product prices. Key companies in this sector include Jiuri New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Qiangli New Materials [34][35] - The photoinitiator market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by environmental regulations and the emergence of new applications such as 3D printing [35]

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 19 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、2025 陆家嘴论坛主题为"全球经济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展"，聚焦四点：全球金 融治理；更宽领域、大幅度金融开放；资本市场促进科创和产创融合；一揽子外汇创新政策。 2、6 月 18 日，吴清主席在 2025 陆家嘴论坛开幕式上的主旨演讲，提出科创板将推出进一步深 化改革的"1+6"政策措施。同日，证监会发布《关于在科创板设置科创成长层 增强制度包容性 适应性的意见》，上交所同步发布两项规则征求意见稿，科创板制度建设包容性和适应性将进一 步提升，有力支持优质未盈利科技企业发行上市。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 宏观专题：《全球变局下的金融：促改革、扩开放、重科创》 2025-06-18 [Table_PageHeader] 2025 年 06 月 19 日 侯欢（分析师）021-38676666、梁中华（分析师）021-38676666 2025 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the new consumption wave is the mismatch between supply and demand, with content marketing accelerating product innovation and transformation [2][6] - The report highlights opportunities for product renewal in traditional industries, particularly in personal care, beauty, and snacks, as new channels and media facilitate product innovation [5][8] - The report suggests that emotional value consumption is becoming increasingly important, with consumers seeking differentiated products that meet more refined and advanced needs [6][8] Group 2 - The report recommends specific companies in the beauty and personal care sectors, such as Ruifeng, Dongkang Oral Care, and brands like Maogeping and Shanghai Jahwa, which are expected to benefit from product innovation and market trends [5][6] - In the snack sector, companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi are suggested for investment due to their ability to resonate with new consumer demands [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of new channels and media in product renewal and market penetration, with examples of how brands leverage platforms like Douyin for product testing and promotion [7][8] Group 3 - The report notes that the A-share market has shown a rebound trend since mid-April, with sectors like pharmaceuticals and banking performing well, while food and real estate sectors lagged [3][12] - It highlights the seasonal increase in stock market volatility during the dividend distribution period in May and June, affecting market dynamics [3][12] - The report indicates that the market is currently experiencing a divergence between large-cap value stocks and small-cap growth stocks, with no significant mean reversion opportunities in sight [3][12]

证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.17 直击字节原动力大会（一）：豆包大模型 1.6 发布，性价比进一步提升 [Table_Industry] 计算机 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [table_Authors] 杨林(分析师) 杨昊翊(分析师) 魏宗(分析师) 021-38676666 021-38676666 021-38676666 本报告导读： 字节跳动火山引擎 FORCE 原动力大会召开，豆包大模型 1.6 正式发布，性能与性 价比齐升，对 AI 落地有望起到直接利好。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 登记编号 S0880525040027 S0880525040126 S0880525040058 数据来源：火山引擎官微 行业跟踪报告 本公司具有中国证监会核准的证券投资咨询业务资格 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：我们认为，字节此次带来了旗下 AI 大模型家族的全面升 级，除了基础模型在技术方面的升级外，值得注意的是字节创新了 大模型的"定价方法"，这使得豆包大模型的性价比进一 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 16 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、继续看好中国股市。行情看似"风波又起"，但外部疑云不足以趋势性阻断走势，相反中国的 确定性是股市稳定和阶梯式上升的重要基础，看好金融、成长与部分周期。 2、①港股稀缺性资产与当前产业周期更相关，基本面修复、南下资金流入，我们认为下半年港 股牛市继续，相较 A 股更强。②当前港股跑赢 A 股类似 12-14 年，宏观弱复苏背景下，产业变 革亮点纷呈，港股科技企业在应用领域表现更优。③AI 应用正步入加速阶段，港股科技企业已具 备先发优势，相较 A 股具备稀缺性的港股科技资产有望引领牛途继续。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 策略周报：《股市看似"风波又起"，实则升势"未完待续"》 2025-06-15 方奕（分析师）021-38676666、黄维驰（分析师）021-38676666、郭佼佼（分析师）021-38676666、 苏徽（分析师）021-386766 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 13 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公司，聚焦电推进动力系统开发，低空经济商业化有望进一步 提速，动力系统环节有望受益。 2、车端开启路测，全固态电池产业化进程加速，近期催化密集落地，看好全固态电池产业化趋 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 行业跟踪报告：机械行业《沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公 司，产业协同加速》2025-06-12 肖群稀（分析师）021-38676666、张越（分析师）021-38676666 投资建议：动力系统与 eVTOL 整机企业积极合作，有望加速核心技术研发及成果转化，进 一步强化低空产业链协同效应，产业化进程有望进一步提速。整机：相关标的为纵横股份、绿能慧 充、万丰奥威、中直股份、山河智能；动力系统：相关标的为宗申动力、卧龙电驱、应流股份、英搏 尔。 沃飞长空与卧龙电驱成立合资公司，聚焦电推进动力系统开发。2025 年 6 月 11 日，卧 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 12 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【金融工程】我们调整此前的战术性大类资产配置观点。我们上修港股的战术性配置观点至超 配，下修国债的战术性配置观点至标配，上修黄金的战术性配置观点至超配。 2、【批零贸易业】5 月出口受关税及上年高基数影响，随中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，出海链 受益，部分对美敞口高的公司望迎估值修复。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 主动量化周报：《行云流水：欧洲央行连续八次降息》2025- 06-10 王子翌（分析师）021-38676666 我们上修港股的战术性配置观点至超配。中国科技突破与新兴产业主题交易热度持续高涨， 国际资金的投资组合调整行为近期更加倾向于流入港股。随着南下资金逐渐提升对于港股以及其部分 板块的定价权，全球宏观环境波动对港股的扰动边际减弱。随着市场对全球地缘政治冲突的担忧降温 以及对特朗普政策关税政策的逐渐钝化，港股的短期风险回报比相对于其他大类资产 ...

国泰海通晨报 2025 年 06 月 11 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、高中教育受益人口红利与政策红利，有望进一步增加学位供给。 2、太力科技深耕家庭收纳用品领域，核心产品真空收纳袋在电商渠道份额领先、收入稳步增长， 垂直墙壁置物产品等产品快速放量，通过多元化渠道有效实现销售增长。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] 电话：021-38676666 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_ImportantInfo] 今日重点推荐 行业深度研究：教育产业《职普融合，高中学位供给扩容》 2025-05-09 刘越男（分析师）021-38676666、宋小寒（分析师）021-38676666、许樱之（分析师）021-38676666 投资建议：高中教育需求刚性，仍具备 7-8 年人口红利期，政府支持扩大高中阶段教育学 位供给，引导规范民办教育发展，推进职普融通。高中教育相关公司受益政策与需求红利，推荐标 的：天立国际控股、学大教育；受益标的：凯文教育。 高中教育还有 7-8 年人口红利期，需求韧性强。以 2025 年为例，高中段适龄人口出生日期约 为 ...

Market Performance - The new stock index and the near-term new stock index fell by 1.38% and 3.62% respectively in the fourth week of May 2025[5] - Nearly 90% of the near-term new stock index constituents declined, with some stocks like Taili Technology and Honggong Technology dropping over 10%[5] - The overall average increase of 46 newly listed stocks was -2.27%, indicating a continued decline in the new stock sector[46] New Stock Issuance - New stock issuance included 5,989,000 shares from Xinhenghui (301678.SZ) and 2,500,000 shares from Huazhijie (603400.SH)[1] - The average first-day increase for the newly listed stock Guxi Rongcai was 170.76%, a recovery compared to the previous two weeks' average of around 100%[39] Trading Activity - The trading activity in the new stock sector continued to decline, with turnover rates for the new stock index and near-term new stock index decreasing by 1.08 percentage points and 3.30 percentage points respectively[18] - The net active selling in the new stock sector reached 3.045 billion yuan, an increase of 6.92 billion yuan from the previous week[24] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the new stock index increased by 0.62 to 51.7X, while the near-term new stock index PE decreased by 0.05 to 33.5X[13] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for the new stock index was 3.9X, corresponding to a historical percentile of 68.2%[17]