Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the "China version of the stabilization fund" has played a positive role in stabilizing indices and boosting market confidence amid external disturbances. The Central Huijin Company has expressed its commitment to supporting the capital market and has increased its holdings in index funds, signaling a focus on long-term value over short-term volatility [3][20][21] - Central Huijin's actions are expected to quickly stabilize market sentiment and assist in bottoming out the market. The People's Bank of China has also indicated that it will provide sufficient re-lending support to Central Huijin when necessary, enhancing the operational capacity of the "China version of the stabilization fund" [3][20][21] Group 2: Funding Sources and Structure - Central Huijin's funding sources are diversified and stable, including self-owned funds, stable cash dividends, and established market financing channels. In February 2025, the Ministry of Finance transferred equity from several financial institutions to Central Huijin, strengthening its asset base [4][21] - The total scale of ETFs held by Central Huijin reached 1,053 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a significant increase in the number of ETF varieties. The average holding ratio of Central Huijin's asset management in various ETFs rose from 3.88% in mid-2024 to 25.94% by the end of 2024, indicating a notable increase in pricing power in the technology growth sector [5][21] Group 3: Semiconductor Equipment Industry - The report highlights that Hybrid technology began mass production in the logic process field in 2022, with a second wave of demand expected in 2024. It is anticipated that the storage sector will start adopting Hybrid Bonding technology between 2025 and 2026, with demand for Hybrid Bonding equipment projected to reach around 1,400 units by 2030 [7][23] - Application Materials' acquisition of a 9% stake in Besi is viewed as a strategic long-term investment, aimed at developing integrated solutions for Hybrid Bonding technology. This collaboration is expected to enhance capabilities for large-scale production in the coming years [8][24][25] Group 4: Financial Performance of Besi - Besi's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 607.5 million euros, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The company reported a gross margin of 65.2% and an order volume of 586.7 million euros, up 7.0% year-on-year, primarily driven by demand for AI applications [9][25] - Besi holds an 18% market share in the advanced packaging equipment sector, with a dominant 67% share in the Advanced Die Placement equipment segment, indicating its strong position in the semiconductor equipment market [9][25] Group 5: Real Estate Industry - The report indicates a significant acceleration in the public announcement of land acquisition using special bonds, with a total proposed acquisition amount exceeding 130 billion yuan. The majority of these acquisitions are from state-owned enterprises, and the average discount rate for land acquisition is approximately 0.8 [27][28] - The issuance of special bonds has also progressed, totaling over 40 billion yuan, which is relatively small compared to the proposed acquisition amount, suggesting a need for local governments to implement their acquisition plans [29][31] Group 6: Automotive Industry - The collaboration between FAW Audi and Huawei aims to enhance Audi's smart driving capabilities, with all new models set to feature advanced driving assistance systems developed jointly with Huawei. This partnership is expected to strengthen Audi's market position in the luxury car segment in China [31][32] - The report recommends focusing on the automotive supply chain, particularly companies like Jifeng and KBD, which are expected to benefit from Audi's growth in the smart vehicle sector [32] Group 7: Company-Specific Insights - The report maintains a "cautious increase" rating for the company in the silicon wafer sector, projecting revenues of 4.442 billion yuan and 5.724 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a significant increase in net profit expected [33][34] - The company is expected to face challenges in profitability due to weak industry demand, but its capacity expansion in 300mm silicon wafers is anticipated to enhance its long-term competitiveness [34][35]

Core Insights - Since the trade friction between China and the US began in 2018, China's reliance on exports to the US has decreased significantly, particularly in the TMT, home appliance, and textile sectors [6][11] - The share of US imports from China has dropped from 21.6% in 2017 to 13.4% in 2024, returning to levels seen around 2005 [11][12] - The US has increased imports from Mexico, Vietnam, and other countries, which has led to a notable decline in imports from China across various sectors [11][14] Industry Analysis - The TMT sector has seen a significant decline in its share of US imports from China, with a decrease of 39.6 percentage points for computers, 20.7 for home appliances, and 18.1 for communications from 2017 to 2024 [11][15] - The increase in US imports from Mexico includes a rise of 6.7 percentage points for computers, 6.4 for automobiles, and 5.5 for home appliances from 2017 to 2024 [14][15] - Vietnam has also seen a rise in US imports, with communication products increasing by 10.5 percentage points and electronics by 7.2 percentage points during the same period [14][15] Export Dynamics - Despite the decline in direct reliance on Chinese exports, China's manufacturing advantages remain strong, and exports to countries like Vietnam and Mexico have increased significantly [11][17] - For instance, the share of electronic products exported from China to Vietnam increased by 3.4 percentage points from 2017 to 2024, while the US's imports from Vietnam in electronics rose by 7.2 percentage points [17][18] - The sectors where China has increased exports to Mexico include communications, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [17][18]

Group 1: Market Strategy and Outlook - The strategy team believes that after uncertainty shocks, the stock market has investment value, with a focus on the "transformation bull" market, where emerging technology is the main line and cyclical finance is a dark horse [2][3] - The report suggests that the Chinese stock market is entering a favorable zone for investment, with key drivers including a shift in investor expectations from economic cycle fluctuations to discount rate changes, particularly as government bond rates drop below 2% [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and technological transformation in investment opportunities, particularly in the context of US-China competition in technology and productivity [3][4] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly regarding Zai Lab, is highlighted for its promising product, Egamod, which is expected to see rapid growth due to its efficacy and safety in treating generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG) [4][16] - The machinery industry is in a recovery phase, with expectations for improved industry conditions driven by counter-cyclical policies and the potential for domestic replacements in high-end machine models [4][20] - The report indicates that the cyclical resource sector may benefit from supply constraints leading to improved supply-demand dynamics, particularly in construction materials, steel, and chemicals [4][5] Group 3: Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector is expected to benefit from a decline in risk-free interest rates, with a shift in resident asset allocation towards the stock market, particularly in stable dividend-paying assets such as utilities and telecommunications [4][5] - The report suggests that financial stocks will see improved valuation levels as new capital enters the market, enhancing trading activity [4][5] Group 4: Emerging Technologies and Consumer Trends - The report identifies emerging technologies and new consumption patterns as key beneficiaries of accelerated economic structural transformation, with a focus on service and self-consumption sectors [4][6] - The historical context of the mobile internet boom is used to draw parallels with current AI investment opportunities, suggesting that the current environment is ripe for a new wave of technological investment [6][9]

Key Recommendations - Tactical asset allocation views have been adjusted, downgrading US Treasury bonds to benchmark and US dollar to underweight, while maintaining an overweight position in gold [1][2] - Chip manufacturer Chipbond is expected to benefit significantly from the adoption of advanced CoWoS-L packaging solutions for high-performance GPUs, requiring more LDI direct-write lithography technology [1][6] - The demand for domestic AI computing chips is anticipated to accelerate due to improvements in hardware performance and software architecture iterations [1][8] - Jinbo Biotech's major product, Wei Yimei, is still in a rapid growth phase, and the commercialization of new gel products is expected to contribute to performance growth [1][11] - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the successful implementation of the old-for-new policy in 2024, with continued policy support in 2025 [1][14] - The coal industry is projected to see a price rebound in April, coinciding with the summer peak demand in June, leading to a preference for more certain dividend assets amid increased market volatility [1][17] Company-Specific Insights - Chipbond maintains an "overweight" rating with a target price of 116.55 CNY, despite lowering EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to overseas progress falling short of expectations [5][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for LDI direct-write lithography equipment as domestic CSP manufacturers ramp up capital expenditures [6] - Jinbo Biotech's new gel product, which is the first injectable recombinant type III humanized collagen gel approved, is expected to enhance its market presence and growth potential [11][12] Industry Trends - The electronic components industry is witnessing a surge in demand for domestic AI computing infrastructure, driven by the release of new products like the CloudMatrix 384 super node [8][9] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a positive trend in retail sales, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% in February 2025, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [15] - The coal industry is approaching a fundamental turning point, with expectations of price stabilization and potential increases due to supply and demand dynamics [17][19]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The tariff environment has limited short-term disruptions to the pharmaceutical industry, with a focus on the global competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs [2][17][19] - Domestic innovative drug companies have captured significant market shares, such as BTK inhibitors holding 75% and PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies over 70% in the domestic market [2][17] - Several Chinese innovative drugs are entering a harvest phase, with Zebutine expected to achieve sales of $2.6 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 105% [2][17] - A recommended list of leading biotech and pharmaceutical companies includes BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and Hengrui Medicine among others [2][17] Group 2: Chemical Industry - Juhua Co., Ltd. - Juhua Co., Ltd. is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 760 to 840 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 145% to 171% [5][6][36] - The company benefits from a strong position in the refrigerant market, with a production quota of 34% for third-generation refrigerants [6][36] - The refrigerant segment has shown a substantial increase in both volume and price, with revenues reaching 2.618 billion yuan, up 64.63% year-on-year [6][36] Group 3: Aluminum Industry - China Aluminum Corporation - China Aluminum Corporation is projected to achieve a net profit of 3.4 to 3.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53% to 63% [8][10] - The company is enhancing its resource strategy and has a significant aluminum ore reserve of approximately 2.7 billion tons [8][10] - Expansion projects are underway, with a new 500,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity expected to come online in December 2024 [10]

Group 1: Fixed Income and Asset Allocation - The fixed income team believes the market is expected to gradually stabilize, with fixed income + funds providing both long-term allocation and left-side speculation capabilities [2][4] - The active allocation team integrates active allocation views into quantitative model research, achieving an annualized return of 24.0% for global asset allocation strategies [5][6] - The report recommends focusing on consumer-oriented funds for investors seeking higher equity exposure in fixed income + products [4][5] Group 2: Construction Industry - The construction team emphasizes the importance of domestic demand policies supporting housing construction and infrastructure, recommending stocks like Jianghe Group and China Construction [10][11] - The construction index has decreased by 3% since the beginning of 2025, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.73, indicating low valuations [10] - The report highlights that the overseas business of Chinese construction companies is largely concentrated in Belt and Road Initiative countries, which is expected to continue growing [11] Group 3: Basic Chemicals - The basic chemicals team maintains a positive outlook on the pesticide sector, citing its essential demand characteristics and limited impact from tariffs [13][14] - The report recommends leading pesticide companies like Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Shares, which have established production facilities in the U.S. [14][15] - The global pesticide market is expected to benefit from changes in trade patterns, with China's pesticide exports showing significant growth [14][15] Group 4: Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a rebound, with excavator sales in March 2025 increasing by 18.5% year-on-year [22][23] - The report suggests that domestic sales of excavators are expected to continue rising due to supportive fiscal policies and industry cycles [22][23] - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG Machinery, which are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery [22] Group 5: Insurance Sector - The recent regulatory changes are expected to enhance the investment capacity of insurance companies in equity markets, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the sector [27][28] - The adjustments in equity asset allocation limits for insurance companies are aimed at increasing their support for capital markets and the real economy [28][29] - The report suggests increasing allocations to major insurance firms like China Life and Ping An Insurance [27][29] Group 6: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector shows positive growth, with significant increases in passenger kilometers (RPK) for major airlines compared to previous years [31][32] - The report highlights that airlines like Eastern Airlines are leading in multiple performance metrics, including RPK and load factors [31][33] - Recommended stocks include Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [31]

Group 1: Building Materials - The external environment is expected to positively influence the fundamentals of the building materials sector, with a focus on "tortoise and hare" dynamics, where supply optimization and demand stabilization will release profits [1][4] - The cement industry is projected to see a slowdown in demand decline, with significant contributions from key projects, and price stabilization is anticipated [5] - The consumption building materials sector is expected to experience profit margin recovery due to declining raw material prices, with a focus on net profit margin recovery rather than price growth [6] Group 2: Telecommunications - The company Tai Chen Guang is expected to exceed profit expectations, with significant overseas orders and active capacity expansion in high-density optical interconnection [8][9] - The updated earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 1.84, 2.52, and 3.50 yuan, with a target price adjustment to 93.84 yuan while maintaining a buy rating [8][9] Group 3: Petrochemicals - The recent increase in U.S. tariffs and unexpected OPEC production increases have led to significant declines in oil prices, with a forecast for Brent crude oil prices to stabilize around 60-65 USD per barrel in 2025 [2][12] - The petrochemical sector is viewed as having good long-term investment value once macroeconomic risks are priced in and oil prices stabilize [12][13] Group 4: Textiles and Apparel - The textile manufacturing industry faces challenges due to U.S. tariff increases, with recommendations to focus on brands with pricing power and manufacturers with competitive barriers [4][14] - Investment suggestions include brands with strong market positions and manufacturers capable of managing tariff impacts effectively [15][16] Group 5: Home Appliances - The recent tariff imposition has increased pressure on re-export trade, prompting a shift back to domestic demand, with recommendations for companies in the domestic supply chain [3][18] - Key investment lines include companies with low exposure to U.S. risks and those utilizing re-export strategies through Mexico [18][19] Group 6: Transportation - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the transportation sector is complex, with recommendations focusing on airlines and oil transportation benefiting from falling oil prices [6][22] - The sector is advised to monitor tariff policy changes and industry responses closely [22][23]

Macroeconomic Insights - China will impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the United States starting April 10, 2025, which is expected to significantly reduce agricultural imports from the U.S. [3] - In 2024, China imported agricultural products worth $24.9 billion from the U.S., with major imports including soybeans (22.1 million tons), sorghum (5.7 million tons), corn (2.1 million tons), and wheat (1.9 million tons) [3]. Agricultural Sector - The increase in tariffs is likely to enhance domestic grain prices and benefit the planting industry chain, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency in grain production [3]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements in agriculture, particularly in genetically modified and gene-edited crops, which are expected to accelerate, benefiting seed companies with leading technology reserves [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies that are actively expanding their domestic brands in the pet food sector, such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which primarily generate revenue from domestic sales [4]. Livestock Industry - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, driven by favorable pig prices and reduced costs [5]. - The analysis of March's supply and demand dynamics in the pig farming industry shows a balanced market, but a potential downward trend in prices is anticipated if there is no support from state reserves [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the poultry sector include Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Lihua Shares; for the post-cycle sector, recommended stocks are KQ Bio, Haida Group; in the pig farming sector, recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Bio, and Shennong Group [7]. - In the seed industry, recommended stocks include Fengle Seed Industry, Quanyin High-Tech, Longping High-Tech, and Dabeinong [7]. - In the pet sector, recommended stocks are Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipu Bio [7]. Chemical Industry - The report suggests that the imposition of a 34% tariff on U.S. imports will accelerate the domestic substitution process for chemical products, particularly in high-end markets [17]. - Beneficiary products include lubricant additives, nucleating agents, adsorption separation resins, and nano-silica, with specific companies recommended for investment [19]. Rare Earth Industry - The report maintains an "overweight" rating on the rare earth sector, anticipating that the recent tariffs will enhance China's strategic advantages in rare earth production and lead to price increases due to supply-demand mismatches [22]. - The export control measures on heavy rare earths are expected to stimulate overseas stockpiling, further driving up prices [23]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is projected to see stable growth in 2025, with a focus on improving asset-liability matching strategies [25]. - The report recommends increasing holdings in companies like China Pacific Insurance and New China Life Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved investment returns and stable business strategies [40].

低利率环境下，资负匹配定保险股价值 [Table_Industry] 保险 ——上市险企 2024 年年报综述 | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 李嘉木(分析师) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524030003 | | 本报告导读： 2024 年上市险企价值率推动 NBV 景气增长，投资收益提振推动利润大幅提升；长 端利率下行对 CSM 及净资产造成冲击，预计资负联动更为重要，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.06 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：负债端看，预定利率调整、分红险占比提升以及全渠道 报行合一的实施将推动行业负债成本的下移，预计 2025 年上市公司 NBV 回归平稳增长；投资端看，由于近年刚性负债成本的抬升，预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness through strengthening product R&D capabilities, supply chain capabilities, operational management, brand influence, and digital capabilities [2]. - The company's performance in 2024 was below expectations, with a decline in same-store revenue and a slowdown in store opening growth. Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered to 7.18 billion and 7.88 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 of 8.62 billion RMB [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is reported at 49.18 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.72 billion RMB, down 59% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit is 6.45 billion RMB, a decline of 49% [5][6]. - The company had a total of 8,395 stores by the end of 2024, an increase of 8% year-on-year, with 8,382 being franchise stores and 13 being directly operated stores. The net increase in franchise stores was 587 [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 31.2%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased support for franchisees [6].