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新型电力系统系列报告(二):火电灵活性改造:电网灵活性增量主体资源
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-26 03:00
Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Recommended (Maintain) [2] Core Insights - The flexibility transformation of thermal power is essential for enhancing the adaptability of the power grid to the rapid development of renewable energy [2][34] - The transformation of thermal power is driven by national energy policies, aiming to shift coal power from a conventional main power source to a dual role of basic security and system regulation [2][42] - The demand for flexibility transformation in thermal power remains significant during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with small units being more feasible than large units [2] Summary by Sections 1. New Power System Needs Flexibility Resources - The ability of the power grid to absorb renewable energy is determined by the system's balancing and regulation capacity [20] - Different power sources have varying peak regulation capabilities, impacting the integration of renewable energy [21][22] 2. Necessity of Thermal Power Flexibility Transformation - China's power structure, dominated by thermal power, necessitates that the main source of future flexibility comes from thermal power [34] - In 2023, thermal power installed capacity reached 1.39 billion kW, accounting for 45% of total installed capacity and 70% of total generation, but with a peak regulation capability of only around 50% [34] 3. Policy Support for Thermal Power Flexibility Transformation - Policies are enhancing the positive outlook for thermal power flexibility transformation, with a focus on improving the regulation capacity of coal power [42][44] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have emphasized the importance of enhancing grid peak regulation and storage capabilities [42]
从实物需求看金价涨跌:金价下跌,反而是配置良机?
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-25 13:30
投资要点 图表目录 2)避险属性:在发生地缘风险等重大风险事件,或长期不确定风险显著加大时,黄金避 险属性往往能推动其价格上涨。 电话:021-20321004 风险提示:美联储超预期连续加息。 策略周报 的增量主要来自于中东、土耳其、俄罗斯等受地缘风险扰动增加的国家和地区。 021-20515355 金价下跌,反而是配置良机? 分析师:蔡梦苑 邮箱:caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 由于黄金实物需求变化对金价的影响力提升,逐渐对传统分析框架中的下行 压力形成对冲。从实物需求的购买习惯来看,并非金价快速上涨的"助推器", 但对"抗跌"的解释力较强,主要起到"稳定器"的作用。 研究助理:郝一凡 中长期来看,在全球不确定性增加、实物需求较强的背景下,金价仍有较高 的配置价值。根据实物需求的购买节奏来看,趁着金价下跌做定投或是当下更 适合的配置方式。 销售服务电话: 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 华宝证券 1/8 内容目录 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|----------------------------------------------------- ...
钢铁行业点评报告:3月全球粗钢产量同比下滑,印度产量高增长
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-24 13:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Global crude steel production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year in March 2024, with notable increases in production from Turkey and India [5][9] - The manufacturing PMI in developed economies shows signs of recovery, suggesting support for future steel demand, with expected growth in steel demand of 1.3% and 2.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in the global steel supply-demand structure and its impact on resource allocation within the industry [13] Summary by Sections Global Steel Production Trends - In March 2024, global crude steel production was 161.2 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, while overseas production was 72.92 million tons, up 2.45% [5][6] - The average daily crude steel production globally was 5.1997 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1.31% [5] - Asian crude steel production saw a significant decline of 5.14%, with China, Japan, and South Korea experiencing substantial decreases [8][9] Country-Specific Production Insights - China produced 88.27 million tons of crude steel in March, down 7.8% year-on-year, while India saw an increase of 11.37% to 1.2709 million tons [9][10] - Turkey's crude steel production rose by 18% to 320,000 tons, indicating a positive trend in certain regions [10] Economic Indicators and Future Demand - The manufacturing PMI for major developed economies remains below the growth line, but there are signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of 2023 [11] - The World Steel Association forecasts a robust growth rate of 3.5% for global steel demand (excluding China) over the next two years, indicating resilience in overseas demand [12]
钒行业月度报告:钢铁需求偏弱,储能需求偏好,关注钒供需结构再匹配
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-23 13:00
2024年 04月 23日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 钢铁需求偏弱,储能需求偏好,关注钒供需结构再匹配 钒行业月度报告 有色金属 投资要点 投资评级:推荐(维持) 上游:3月钒钛粉价格回调,主要钢企高炉铁水产量增加,推动钒渣供给增加。 3月国内攀枝花和承德地区钒钛粉价格出现回调-2.76%和-16.21%,整体跟随铁矿 分析师:张锦 石价格变动。3月钒钛磁铁矿主要冶炼企业攀钢和河钢承钢的铁水产量分别环比上 分析师登记编码:S0890521080001 升7.86%和32.51%,这对3月的钒渣供给增加形成支撑。4月以来高炉开工率持 电话:021-20321304 续回升,预计将带来钒渣供给持续释放。 邮箱:zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 中游:节后复工推动供给释放,下游需求偏弱,导致五氧化二钒、钒铁、钒氮合 金、偏钒酸铵价格出现不同程度下跌。节后复工推动供给释放,3月23家样本企 研究助理:张后来 业五氧化二钒产量10730吨,环比增加7.73%;钒铁、钒氮合金、偏钒酸铵产量 邮箱:zhanghoulai@cnhbstock.com 均有环比较大增长。但价格均出现不同程度回调,其中四川片状 ...
《公开募集证券投资基金证券交易费用管理规定》点评:引领资管服务化改革新起点,促进公募行业回归本源
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-23 01:00
总结:系落实新"国九条"及"1+N"政策体系重要一环,引领资管行业服 务化改革高质量发展。《规定》系围绕新"国九条"的"1+N"的政策文件体系 的重要构成,是落实"稳步降低公募基金行业综合费率"部署的关键举措,规 范了公募基金、证券公司交易合作模式,改变金融机构"以规模为考核、以销 售换佣金"等卖方销售导向模式,进而改变券商财富管理内部考核、队伍管理 与管理架构的机制。针对公募行业交易佣金的规范约束,对其他银行理财、信 托产品等具有较强信号作用,资管行业迎来全新的服务化改革:金融机构真正 以投资者利益为重,提升投资者服务体验,抛弃"牌照意识",拿起"能力意识" 的机构才能实现高质量发展。 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 华宝证券 1/9 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 1. 公募基金证券交易费用管理规定的正式稿领布… | | 2. 主要内容:四方面规范交易佣金费用,完善落实信被及追责机制. | | 2.1. 费率水平: 测算市场平均股票交易佣金 ...
镁行业月度报告:镁产品需求市场回暖,陕西将打造镁合金千亿产业链
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-22 10:00
2024年 04月 22日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 镁产品需求市场回暖,陕西将打造镁合金千亿产业链 镁行业月度报告 有色金属 投资要点 投资评级:推荐(维持) 金属镁生产成本下行,市场开工恢复,镁锭价格趋稳:从原料端来看,3月 我国兰炭开工率44.55%,环比下降9.62%,生产成本1300.71元/吨,环比下 分析师:张锦 降 13.57%,陕西兰炭中料主流价939.06元/吨,环比下降13.05%;未煅烧白 分析师登记编码:S0890521080001 云石进口1.49万吨,环比提升11%,已煅烧/未煅烧白云石出口5176吨/10万 电话:021-20321304 吨,环比提升6.25%/9.41%;硅铁产量42.6万吨,环比提升0.35%,兰州硅 邮箱:zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 铁价格6335.71元/吨,环比下降2.4%。供应端,3月我国生产原镁7.73万吨, 环比提升5.8%,平均镁锭价格1.97万元/吨,环比下降8.4%。预计4月金属 研究助理:张后来 镁开工率有望进一步恢复,金属镁价格预计将保持偏稳运行。 邮箱:zhanghoulai@cnhbstock.com 下游 ...
钢铁3月月报:3月整体需求不及预期,钢价震荡下行
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-22 09:31
2024年 04月 22日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 月整体需求不及预期,钢价震荡下行 3 钢铁 3 月月报 钢铁 投资要点 投资评级:推荐(维持) 3月供给修复快于需求,钢价震荡下行:3月钢铁及成品材产量升降并存。3 月粗钢产量8827万吨,同比-7.8%;从成材端的产量来看,3月份钢材产量12337 分析师:张锦 万吨,同比0.1%,五大材产量合计4221.07万吨,同比-11.9%。3月螺纹钢、 分析师登记编码:S0890521080001 线材、中厚板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的表观消费量分别为1032.22万吨、415.79 电话:021-20321304 万吨、740.94万吨、1567.97万吨、436.23万吨,同比分别为-38.3%、-35.4%、 邮箱:zhangjin@cnhbstock.com -1.5%、-1.5%、3.7%,螺纹钢、线材下滑较为严重,冷轧板卷有一定增量。3 月受地产销售不佳、基建投资增速缓慢、需求偏弱、库存压力较大等因素的影 销售服务电话: 响,钢材价格整体震荡下行。3月钢材综合价格指数为108.25,环比-3.5%,同 021-20515355 比-9%。 行业走势 ...
银行理财产品周观察:黄金屡破新高,固收+黄金理财如何参与?
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-21 07:00
2024年 04月 19日 证券研究报告 | 银行理财周报 黄金屡破新高,固收 黄金理财如何参与? + 银行理财产品周观察 投资要点 分析师:张菁 分析师登记编码:S0890519100001 2023年以来,受美国降息预期、地缘冲突、各国央行持续增持黄金储备等多 电话:021-20321551 因素叠加影响,推动金价走高,从中长期视角看,黄金处于长期上行周期。黄 邮箱:zhangjing@cnhbstock.com 金具备对抗通胀、避险、抵御债务信用风险、与其它资产低相关性、高流动性 的多重特性。这些特性使得黄金成为投资者在构建投资组合时考虑的重要资产 销售服务电话: 之一,一般情况下,黄金可占家庭资产配置5%—15%。 021-20515355 对投资经验尚浅的投资者,投资黄金主要有以下几种方式:1.实物金2.积存 相关研究报告 金3.黄金ETF及联接基金4.“黄金类”理财产品。 1、《大额快赎理财服务生变,我的活钱管 习惯于银行渠道的投资者,除了黄金贵金属业务,“黄金类”理财产品可以作 理怎么办?—银行理财产品周观察》 为当前时点,参与黄金投资比较稳妥的方式。因为这类产品的设计通常是为投 2024 ...
《国务院关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》点评:“新国九条”纲领文件重磅发布,“1+N”政策合力夯实市场根基
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-16 16:00
"新国九条"纲领文件重磅发布, "1+N"政策合力夯 实市场根基 分析师:卫以诺 分析师登记编码:S0890518120001 电话:021-20321014 邮箱:weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 4 月 12 日,国务院印发《关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的 若干意见》(以下简称"新'国九条'"),系资本市场的关键指导纲领性文件, 这是继 2004 年、2014 年两个"国九条"之后,又时隔 10 年,国务院再次出 台的资本市场指导性文件。 邮箱:liaolu@cnhbstock.com 1、《全链条从严监管,旨在提升投资者获 得感—证监会集中发布《关于严把发行上 市准入关从源头上提高上市公司质量的 意见(试行)》等四项政策文件点评》 2024-03-18 金融机构:强监管推动行业回归本源,投行+财富突出专业能力建设。与 2024 年 3 月 15 日证监会发布的相关文件对比,"新国九条"基本延续了对证券基金 机构的相关监管表述,新增了关于重点培养"上市券商"为上市公司中的模范 生,持续规范衍生品业务,新提"两融业务"监管,引导证券基金机构围绕"投 行+财富"发挥更多专业主观能动性 ...
人形机器人专题报告四:六维力传感器:人机末端力觉来源,行业格局变化在即
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2024-04-14 16:00
Industry Overview - Force sensors are widely used in various industries including industrial automation, automotive, consumer electronics, medical devices, and aerospace [1] - The upstream material cost accounts for over 80% of the total cost, with key processes including strain gauge manufacturing [1] - The midstream involves processing, manufacturing, and packaging, while downstream applications are extensive [1] Six-Axis Force Sensors - Six-axis force sensors are the highest-dimensional force sensors and are essential for high-performance humanoid robots [1] - They provide comprehensive force information and improve sensing accuracy, which cannot be replaced by multiple low-dimensional sensors [1] - These sensors are primarily installed at the end of humanoid robots, such as wrists and ankles, to enhance fine motor control and walking stability [1] Market and Production Challenges - The production of six-axis force sensors is technically challenging, with low efficiency and high costs [1] - The average price of six-axis force sensors ranges from 20,000 to 40,000 RMB, with costs in the thousands, indicating high profit margins [1] - The market for six-axis force sensors is currently niche, with a 2022 market size of less than 300 million RMB and sales of fewer than 10,000 units [2] - The domestic market is dominated by foreign brands, but domestic brands are catching up in terms of precision and cost-effectiveness [2] Key Companies - Domestic companies involved in six-axis force sensors include Haozhi Electromechanical, Kelisensing, and Minxin Semiconductor, though their products are still in the early stages of commercialization or R&D [3] - Non-listed companies like Yuli Instruments, Landian Touch, and Kunwei Technology are also significant players in the domestic market [2] Future Trends - The mass production of humanoid robots is expected to drive significant market growth for six-axis force sensors [2] - Domestic brands are expected to accelerate the process of import substitution due to their cost-performance advantages [2] - The industry may see a price reduction and reshuffle as humanoid robot production scales up and cost pressures increase [1]