2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 外部烽烟再起，稳健为主 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《波动明显上升，适度回归稳健 —策 略周报》2026-02-01 2、《理性降温，景气度仍是避风港 —策 略周报》2026-01-18 3、《跨年波动或有上升，不改高景气主 线 —策略周报》2026-01-04 4、《继续耐心布局高景气 —策略周报》 2025-12-21 5、《由守转攻，布局高景气方向等风起 —策略周报》2025-12-07 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】止盈意愿有望减弱，区间震荡为主。春节后在两会前，债市存 在一定止盈压力，观望情绪上升。但外部冲突风险上升，风险偏好回落或利于 债市，债市调整风险有限。后续关注政策目标设定，若经济增长、赤字率目标 等设定并未明显强于预期，则债市风 ...

hjn 2026 年 02 月 26 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 ETF 策略指数跟踪周报 2026/2/26 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 邮箱：zhangjunrui@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《地缘关税扰动并存，市场结构趋势延 续 — 公 募 基 金 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2026.02.09-2026.02.13）》2026-02-24 2、《节前震荡下行，风格短期切换—公募 基 金 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2026.02.02-2026.02.06）》2026-02-09 3、《ETF 策略指数跟踪周报—2026/2/9》 2026-02-09 4、《全球流动性巨震，盈利修复值得期待 — 公 募 基 金 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2026.01.26-2026.01.30）》2026-02-02 5、《E ...

分析师登记编码：S0890525040001 电话：021-20321070 邮箱：zhoujiahui@cnhbstock.com 2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告|银行理财周报 监管整治"收益打榜" ，理财行业或告别短期业绩竞争 银行理财周度跟踪（2026.2.9-2026.2.22） 分析师：蔡梦苑 分析师登记编码：S0890521120001 电话：021-20321004 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 捕捉高确定性收益—银行理财周度跟踪 （2026.2.2-2026.2.8）》2026-02-11 2、《银行存续理财持续压降，理财"收益 打榜"再获关注—银行理财周度跟踪 （2026.1.26-2026.2.1）》2026-02-04 3、《2025 年报：规模高增，结构优化， 增配基金和存款—银行理财周度跟踪 （2026.1.19-2026.1.25）》2026-01-28 4、《银行理财再掀"降费潮"，周开持有 期 新 品 亮 相 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2026.1.12-2026.1.18）》2026-01-21 ...

2026/2/25 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 分析师：薛婧怡 分析师登记编码：S0890525070001 电话：021-20321092 邮箱：xuejingyi@cnhbstock.com 2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 （3）证券保险 ETF 易方达（512070.SH）：券商发债规模同比大幅增长，为 业务扩张奠定坚实基础；沪深北交易所优化再融资政策，利好投行业务。据财 联社 2 月 21 日消息，根据 Choice 数据统计，2026 年截至 2 月 20 日，券商累 计发行债券的募资总额达 4260.4 亿元，同比增长 243.97%，体现出券商发债情 绪的高涨。与此同时，年内债券获批额度已达 3220 亿元。这一方面为券商补充 了较低成本的长期资金，有助于扩大其自营、做市、两融、 ...

2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告|银行理财周报 捕捉高确定性收益—银行理财周度跟踪 （2026.2.2-2026.2.8）》2026-02-11 2、《银行存续理财持续压降，理财"收益 打榜"再获关注—银行理财周度跟踪 （2026.1.26-2026.2.1）》2026-02-04 3、《2025 年报：规模高增，结构优化， 增配基金和存款—银行理财周度跟踪 （2026.1.19-2026.1.25）》2026-01-28 4、《银行理财再掀"降费潮"，周开持有 期 新 品 亮 相 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2026.1.12-2026.1.18）》2026-01-21 5、《公募销售新规正式落地，理财子深化 推进新直联系统上线—银行理财周度跟 踪（2025.12.29-2026.1.4）》2026-01-07 投资要点 监管整治"收益打榜" ，理财行业或告别短期业绩竞争 银行理财周度跟踪（2026.2.9-2026.2.22） 分析师：蔡梦苑 分析师登记编码：S0890521120001 电话：021-20321004 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 分析 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the event disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday do not strongly drive a comprehensive market rise. The market may continue its characteristics of structural differentiation and high - level volatility. The logic of price increases due to anti - involution, geopolitical disturbances, and supply - demand mismatches in the AI supply chain will run through the whole year. Attention should be paid to long - position opportunities in细分 fields. However, the Two Sessions will be held on March 4th, and the detailed 15th Five - Year Plan will be finalized, which means that the policy - favorable expectations for technology and growth will be realized. One needs to beware of the decline risk after the growth style's good news is exhausted. With the in - depth and continuous promotion of anti - involution policies, the demand side will stabilize under the tone of fiscal stimulus and economic recovery. The reversal of the supply - demand contradiction may consolidate the performance inflection point of leading industry companies. Focus on the mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement [3][14]. - The bond market has both bullish and bearish factors. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated maturity of reverse repurchases may put some pressure on short - term market liquidity, but the central bank is likely to maintain a supportive attitude, and the liquidity disturbance is probably controllable. The supply pressure of local bonds will decrease after the festival. However, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has fallen below 1.8%, and the resistance to further decline has increased. The purchasing power of institutional allocation funds may decline after the festival, and the market game will intensify before the Two Sessions with a low probability of interest rate cuts. Although the relative value of coupon allocation still exists, the downward space for bond yields of various maturities may be limited [4][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - During the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.13), the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.36%, the CSI 500 rose 1.88%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.22%. The market had some enthusiasm, but the sentiment was restrained, and the trading volume did not effectively increase, remaining at around 2 trillion. The rebound hotspots were concentrated in the TMT and media industries. Pan - technology stocks were significantly repaired, and there was a concentrated rise in sub - directions such as diesel generators and gas turbines related to the North American computing power power outage. The market was still mainly characterized by a structural trend, and all market mainlines were basically centered around the AI narrative [12]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, the US tariff unconstitutional ruling and the Middle East situation injected new uncertainties into the market. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was unconstitutional. Trump's administration then announced a 10% temporary tariff on imported goods for 150 days starting from February 24th and later proposed to raise it to 15%. The US - Iran negotiation was completed without a substantial agreement, and Trump threatened a "limited - scale" military strike on Iran. The release of the US December PCE inflation data and the Fed's FOMC meeting minutes weakened the market's expectation of an optimistic Fed interest rate cut [13]. - Domestically, the long - holiday consumption data was mixed. The travel traffic reached a new high, highlighting the prosperity of the service - based tourism consumption economy, but there was internal structural differentiation. The overall consumption showed the characteristics of increasing volume but decreasing price, and traditional consumption in areas such as film and real estate was weak, while consumption in areas such as return - home tourism, outbound tourism under visa - free policies, and smart wearable devices was strong. The popularity of humanoid robots and AI applications during the Spring Festival Gala is expected to continuously boost the market's enthusiasm for technology [14]. 1.2. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - In the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.14), the bond market performed well. The yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.62BP to 1.31%, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 2.03BP to 1.79%, and the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.50BP to 2.25%. Driven by the pre - holiday allocation demand, the bond market continued its oscillatory recovery trend [15]. - The US Treasury yield curve flattened last week (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.23). The 1 - year US Treasury yield rose 5BP to 3.50%, the 2 - year yield fell 7BP to 3.43%, and the 10 - year yield fell 19BP to 4.03%. The decline in long - term US Treasury yields was mainly due to the speech of the National Economic Council Chairman suggesting a possible downturn in the employment market and the lower - than - expected CPI growth in January, which reduced inflation expectations. Although the January employment data was better than expected, as the US stock market continued to weaken and market risk appetite decreased, some funds flowed into the bond market, leading to a significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields [17]. - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.41% during the week before the Spring Festival holiday (2026.02.09 - 2026.02.13), closing at 1047.08 points, with most sectors rising, especially in consumption and data centers. In the primary market, 4 new public REITs made progress last week: Huatai Three Gorges Clean Energy REIT was under feedback, CITIC Construction First Agricultural Food Group Commercial Real Estate REIT and Guotai Haitong Chongbang Commercial Real Estate REIT were accepted, and AVIC Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT was under inquiry [17]. 2. Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation for each fund. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability within value, balanced, and growth styles, and the style distribution is roughly balanced according to the style distribution of the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [21][22]. 2.2. Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Selection Index**: The value style includes both deep - value and quality - value styles. The index selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [25]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks and switch to more cost - effective stocks when the cost - performance of held stocks decreases. The index selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [25]. - **Growth Stock Fund Selection Index**: The growth style aims to capture the double - click opportunities of performance and valuation of high - growth companies and discover "dark - horse" companies in high - potential fields. The index selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [28]. 2.3. Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). Funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 15 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31][32]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, Commerce and Retail, Consumer Services, Textile and Apparel, Food and Beverage, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [32]. - **Technology Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, Communications, Computer, Media). Funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [36]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, Machinery, Power Equipment and New Energy, National Defense and Military Industry, Electronics, Communications). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [41]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, Coal, Non - ferrous Metals, Steel, Building Materials, Basic Chemicals, Banks, Non - bank Finance, Real Estate, Comprehensive Finance). Funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the past 3 years or since establishment are selected. An evaluation system is established, and 5 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [44]. 2.4. Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: The index aims at liquidity management, pursuing a curve that surpasses money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds with relatively good performance and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds among passive index - bond funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [46]. 2.5. Pure - Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index aims at liquidity management, pursuing a smooth and upward curve while ensuring drawdown control. It mainly allocates 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure - Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [50]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursuing stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It aims for excess returns relative to the medium - and long - term bond fund index and a stable upward net - value curve. It selects 5 funds each period, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, adjusting the duration and the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions [51]. 2.6. Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income plus funds each period, focusing on those with an equity center (total equity position considering convertible - bond and stock holdings) of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. It considers both the risk - return ratio and the holding experience. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income plus funds each period, choosing those with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and selects funds with certain performance elasticity. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection Index**: The equity center of the index is positioned at 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income plus funds each period, choosing those with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on the risk - return ratio and selects funds with certain performance elasticity, mainly screening for funds that can obtain stable returns on the bond side without credit downgrading and have strong stock - picking ability and offensive ability on the equity side. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 2.7. Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible - Bond Fund Selection Index**: The index selects bond - type funds with the average proportion of convertible - bond investment in bond market value of no less than 60% in the latest period and no less than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. An evaluation system is established from the fund - product, fund - manager, and fund - company dimensions, considering factors such as long - and short - term returns, drawdowns, risk - adjusted returns, and the timing and bond - selection abilities of fund managers. Five funds are selected to form the index [64]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets, with investment targets including Chinese - funded US dollar bonds and US dollar bonds. According to credit ratings, they are usually divided into investment - grade and high - yield products. Six funds with stable returns and good risk control are selected to form the index [67]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets of REITs are mainly mature, high - quality, and stable - operating infrastructure projects with relatively clear cash - flow expectations and relatively limited unit - net - value volatility. Ten funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity are selected to form the index according to the underlying asset types [68].

Market Overview - In January 2026, the equity market showed a good profit effect, with major indices rising, while the bond market stabilized after fluctuations[3] - The performance of cyclical and growth sectors remained strong, with non-ferrous metals, media, and oil and petrochemicals leading gains at 23.02%, 18.85%, and 14.95% respectively[3] - Conversely, the banking, comprehensive finance, and transportation sectors experienced declines of -6.18%, -4.46%, and -0.89% respectively[3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market showed resilience after a period of decline, with major bond fund indices recording gains of 0.24%, 0.20%, and 0.16% for long-term, bond index, and short-term pure bond indices respectively[12] - The performance of first-level, second-level, and convertible bond fund indices increased by 0.85%, 1.65%, and 6.90% respectively, following the strength of the equity market[12] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in February, focusing on sectors with strong profit elasticity and clear benefits from technological advancements, particularly in "light, electricity, and storage" segments[4] - Traditional dividend stocks are recommended as stabilizing components in investment portfolios, enhancing risk management[4] Risk Considerations - The report emphasizes the need for caution in the bond market, advising against extending duration too much due to the current narrow credit spreads and potential challenges in capital gains[6] - It highlights the importance of monitoring policy signals and maintaining a diversified allocation to mitigate risks in a complex market environment[6] Performance Metrics - The active equity fund selection index has achieved a cumulative net value of 1.5819 since its inception on May 11, 2023, outperforming the CSI 930950 index by 25.37%[23] - The short-term bond fund selection index has a cumulative net value of 1.0481, with an excess return of 0.5456% relative to its benchmark since December 12, 2023[31]

Investment Insights - The report discusses the significant upcoming maturity of approximately 67 trillion yuan in household time deposits in 2026, primarily formed after 2020 due to residents' precautionary savings amid uncertainties, with a notable shift from high interest rates above 3% to a low-rate environment where mainstream renewal rates are below 2% [9][15][27] - The potential reallocation of these funds is a focal point of market discussions, as it could impact the preservation and appreciation of household wealth and influence various financial asset prices [9][27] Fund Flow Directions - The report identifies three main directions for the funds from maturing deposits: 1. Renewal of deposits, which remains a default choice for most savers despite low interest rates, as consumption and housing purchases are not expected to dominate in the short term [2][15] 2. Early mortgage repayment, as the current mortgage rates exceed deposit and low-risk investment returns, leading to a high early repayment rate in RMBS, although this is not the primary direction for the funds [17] 3. Investment in both low-risk assets (such as bank wealth management products, bond funds, and insurance) and risk assets (like equity funds and the stock market), with the latter being the most debated potential direction for "deposit migration" [2][15][17] Asset Performance Influence - The ultimate direction of the maturing deposit funds towards low-risk or risk assets will depend on the actual performance of various asset classes, as funds inherently seek to chase better-performing assets and withdraw from underperforming ones [19][27] - Historical market trends indicate that funds tend to rotate based on asset performance, with recent trends showing simultaneous movements in both bond and stock markets due to significant allocations through "fixed income plus" strategies [19][27] Central Bank Perspective - The report highlights that funds from maturing deposits are likely to flow back into the banking system, albeit in a different form, as they transition from household deposits to non-bank institutional deposits [3][20][26] - By the end of 2025, over 80% of asset management products are expected to be directed towards fixed-income assets, with a significant portion returning to bank deposits, indicating a structural change rather than a mass exodus from the banking system [3][20][26]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking wealth management industry, highlighting a new wave of fee reductions and innovative strategies among institutions [4]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management market has seen a significant increase in scale, reaching 33.29 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a structural shift towards fixed-income products and an expansion of mixed-asset offerings [4][12]. - The average yield of wealth management products has dropped below 2% for the first time, reflecting a challenging market environment influenced by declining interest rates and increased competition [12][18]. - Regulatory changes, including the implementation of new public fund sales regulations, aim to lower investor costs and promote long-term investment strategies [4][12]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of January, the total market size of wealth management products was 31.57 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.10% month-on-month but an increase of 5.75% year-on-year [5][10]. - The average annualized yield for wealth management products was reported at 1.98%, marking a significant decline from previous years [12][18]. Product Dynamics - The new issuance of wealth management products in January saw an increase, maintaining a focus on three main characteristics: fixed-income plus products, closed-end products, and 1-3 year term products [6][12]. - The closed-end product compliance rate reached 86.66%, while the open-end product compliance rate was 66.53%, both showing improvements from the previous month [6][12]. Regulatory and Industry Developments - The report highlights a new wave of fee reductions across the industry, with many institutions lowering management and service fees to enhance product attractiveness [4][12]. - The introduction of the new public fund sales regulations is expected to provide greater flexibility in fee structures, benefiting the bond market and indirectly supporting the wealth management sector [12][18]. Innovation and Strategic Shifts - Institutions are increasingly focusing on innovative strategies, such as the introduction of new product types and enhanced investor engagement through technology [4][12]. - The report notes that smaller banks are shifting towards a distribution model to adapt to regulatory pressures and market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of channel partnerships [12][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing focus on bank wealth management products, particularly in the context of commercial aerospace investments and the introduction of new "arbitrage+" strategies aimed at capturing high certainty returns [4][10]. - The performance of cash management products remains stable, with a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.17% [13][15]. - The report notes a rise in the net loss ratio of bank wealth management products to 0.96%, indicating a potential increase in redemption pressure if the credit spread continues to widen [21][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Innovation Dynamics - Ningyin Wealth Management successfully participated in the IPO of "Electric Science Blue Sky," which saw a first-day closing increase of 596%, with six of its products included in the allocation [10]. - Su Yin Wealth Management launched the "arbitrage+" series of wealth management products, focusing on short holding periods of 45 and 100 days, utilizing pricing discrepancies across various markets to generate returns [12]. 2. Yield Performance - Cash management products recorded a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.28%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds increased to 1.17% [13][15]. - The yields of pure fixed income and fixed income+ products generally declined, influenced by various market factors including weaker PMI data and increased risk aversion [16][18]. 3. Net Loss Ratio Tracking - The net loss ratio for bank wealth management products increased to 0.96%, up by 0.38 percentage points, with a widening credit spread of 0.06 basis points [21][24].