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公募基金泛固收指数跟踪周报(2025.09.22-2025.10.10):美国政府持续停摆,国内债市呈现震荡走势-20251013
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-10-13 11:48
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The bond market in China showed a volatile trend. Before the National Day (2025.09.22 - 2025.09.30), it maintained a weak oscillation, and after the National Day (2025.10.09 - 2025.10.10), the bond market sentiment improved, and the yields generally declined. The central bank will continue to support liquidity, and the bond supply in the fourth quarter may gradually decrease, so the relatively fragile situation of the bond market sentiment is expected to improve. However, the current market's continuous bullish sentiment is not strong, and the repair amplitude may be relatively limited [2][9]. - The US Treasury yields fluctuated. Before the National Day, they rose, and during and after the National Day, they declined. The continuous "shutdown" of the US government and the divergence of Fed officials on interest - rate cuts have affected the market [10]. - REITs continued to face pressure. Before and after the National Day, the CSI REITs Total Return Index declined, with only the environmental protection and people's livelihood sector rising slightly after the National Day. In the primary market, there were new developments for some REITs [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - **Bond Market Review**: Before the National Day, the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.72BP to 1.37%, the 10 - year yield decreased by 0.42BP to 1.86%, and the 30 - year yield increased by 5.7BP to 2.25%. After the National Day, the 1 - year yield decreased by 0.88BP to 1.37%, the 10 - year yield decreased by 1.45BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year yield increased by 3.68BP to 2.28%. Due to the relief of the pressure to realize floating profits at the end of the quarter and the central bank's continuous support for market liquidity, the bond market sentiment improved [2][9]. - **US Treasury Yield Fluctuation**: Before the National Day, the 1 - year US Treasury yield increased by 8BP to 3.68%, the 2 - year yield increased by 3BP to 3.60%, and the 10 - year yield increased by 2BP to 4.16%. During and after the National Day, the 1 - year yield decreased by 8BP to 3.60%, the 2 - year yield decreased by 8BP to 3.52%, and the 10 - year yield decreased by 11BP to 4.05%. The continuous "shutdown" of the US government and the divergence of Fed officials on interest - rate cuts affected the market [10]. - **REITs Performance**: Before the National Day, the CSI REITs Total Return Index decreased by 0.92% to 1061.47 points, and all types of REITs generally declined. After the National Day, the index decreased by 0.26% to 1058.71 points, with only the environmental protection and people's livelihood sector rising slightly. As of October 10, 2025, 16 REITs had completed fundraising and listing in 2025. Last week, 3 new public REITs and 1 expansion - offering REIT made new progress [11]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The first foreign - funded consumer REIT, Huaxia CapitaLand Commercial REIT, was successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on September 29, 2025. It is the 75th public REIT in China and a benchmark case for the internationalization, diversification, and specialization of the Chinese public REIT market [3][12]. 2. Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance Tracking - **Currency Enhancement Index**: Last week (2025.10.09 - 2025.10.10), it rose by 0.00%, with a cumulative return of 4.16% since its establishment. It aims at liquidity management, pursues a curve that surpasses money - market funds and rises smoothly, and mainly allocates money - market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance comparison benchmark is the CSI Money Fund Index [4][13][15]. - **Pure Bond Index**: - **Short - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Last week, it rose by 0.00%, with a cumulative return of 4.27% since its establishment. It aims at liquidity management, pursues a smooth - rising curve on the basis of ensuring drawdown control, and mainly configures 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return capabilities. The performance comparison benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [4][13][18]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Last week, it rose by 0.01%, with a cumulative return of 6.06% since its establishment. It invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, pursues stable returns while controlling drawdowns, and selects 5 funds each period. It adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [4][14][20]. - **Fixed - Income + Index**: - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: Last week, it fell by 0.18%, with a cumulative return of 3.99% since its establishment. The equity center is positioned at 10%, and 10 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + targets with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance comparison benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [4][14][22]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: Last week, it fell by 0.45%, with a cumulative return of 5.59% since its establishment. The equity center is positioned at 20%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently [4][14][23]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: Last week, it fell by 0.42%, with a cumulative return of 7.78% since its establishment. The equity center is positioned at 30%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects fixed - income + targets with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently [4][14][27]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Last week, it rose by 0.89%, with a cumulative return of 23.01% since its establishment. It selects bond - type funds with a convertible - bond investment proportion of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% on average in the past four quarters as the sample space, and selects 5 funds to form the index [4][14][29]. - **QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Last week, it rose by 0.23%, with a cumulative return of 10.37% since its establishment. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on the credit and duration of overseas bonds [4][14][32]. - **REITs Fund Preferred Index**: Last week, it fell by 0.19%, with a cumulative return of 34.27% since its establishment. It selects 10 funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset types of REITs [4][14][33].
公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.09.29-2025.10.10):关税风波再起,后续如何应对?-20251013
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-10-13 11:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the two trading days before and after the double festivals (2025.09.29 - 2025.10.10), the market once reached a new high, with upstream resource products leading the rise, and lithium batteries, steel, and military industries taking turns to perform. However, the capital support for the pre - holiday rebound was weaker than before, and the market quickly declined on Friday after a brief post - holiday rebound. Some funds saw the decline as an opportunity to increase positions [11]. - The resurgence of the tariff issue is a continuation of the global tariff war since April. Although the current valuation of the equity market is significantly higher than in April, China's "double - loose" policy is clear, and investors have more experience in dealing with such situations [11]. - The market under the current friction may mainly involve profit - taking of the booming assets since the third quarter. If a style switch occurs, the market's development path depends on specific triggering factors [13]. - The essence of the current upstream resource stock market represented by non - ferrous metals is the switch of the valuation logic of resource stocks from the cycle to DCF with higher cash - flow visibility under the background of supply constraints and geopolitical instability. This logic will continue as long as commodity prices do not continuously decline [4][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Observation - **Equity Market Review and Observation** - From 2025.09.29 to 2025.10.10, the market reached a new high, with upstream resource products leading. The pre - holiday rebound lacked capital support, and the market declined on Friday after a brief post - holiday rebound. When the market tumbled last Friday, there were net purchases of CSI 300, ChiNext, and STAR Market ETFs [11]. - On the evening of October 10, 2025, Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and cancel the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders, causing a sharp decline in risk assets. This trade conflict is a continuation of the global tariff war since April, and the conflict may escalate and spread to other fields [11]. - The current valuation of the equity market is higher than in April, but China's "double - loose" policy is clear, and investors have more experience in dealing with such situations [11]. - In the third quarter, the market's structural market was extreme, with technology innovation sectors rising significantly and pro - cyclical assets performing poorly. The market's ability to continue to rise depends on whether high - valuation hot sectors can maintain their upward momentum and whether low - valuation traditional pro - cyclical sectors can improve their fundamentals [12]. - The market under the current friction may mainly involve profit - taking of booming assets. If a style switch occurs, the development path depends on specific factors such as economic policies, the slowdown of booming industries, or geopolitical factors [13]. - The demand for energy metals is increasing, and the supply of strategic minor metals is restricted by anti - globalization. The valuation logic of upstream resource stocks represented by non - ferrous metals has switched from the cycle to DCF, and this logic will continue as long as commodity prices do not continuously decline [13]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking - **Performance Statistics** - From 2025.10.09 to 2025.10.10, the Active Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 1.63%, the Value Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 0.09%, the Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 2.13%, the Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 2.63%, the Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 2.66%, the Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 0.93%, the Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 2.63%, the High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 4.56%, and the Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index fell 1.42% [6][14]. - Since its establishment, the Active Stock Fund Preferred Index has recorded an excess return of 13.38%, the Value Stock Fund Preferred Index 4.80%, the Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index 8.75%, the Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index 13.56%, the Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index 19.67%, the Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index 23.42%, the Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index 20.72%, the High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index - 5.99%, and the Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index - 1.99% [6]. - **Index Positioning and Benchmarks** - **Active Stock Fund Preferred Index**: 15 funds are selected each period and equally weighted. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the Active Stock Index (930980.CSI) [15]. - **Value Stock Fund Preferred Index**: It includes deep - value and quality - value styles. 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [17][18]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks. 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [21]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index**: It aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [23][24]. - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). 15 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the Pharmaceutical Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [26]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the Consumption Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [26][29]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, Communication, etc.). 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the Technology Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [29]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, etc.). 10 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the High - end Manufacturing Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [32]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Funds are selected based on the intersection market value of their equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, Coal, etc.). 5 funds are selected to form the index. The performance benchmark is the Cyclical Theme Fund Index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research Platform) [32][33].
ETF策略指数跟踪周报-20251013
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-10-13 09:56
hjn 2025 年 10 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 ETF 策略指数跟踪周报 2025/10/13 分析师:卫以诺 分析师登记编码:S0890518120001 电话:021-20321014 邮箱:weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890522110001 电话:021-20321297 邮箱:chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 邮箱:zhangjunrui@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 2025-09-29 2、《美联储降息周期重启,关注短期震荡 带来的布局机会—公募基金量化遴选类 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 ( 2025.09.21 )》 2025-09-23 募 基 金 权 益 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 (2025.09.15-2025.09.19)》2025-09-22 4、《美联储降息落地,债市延续区间震荡 — 公 募 基 金 泛 固 收 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 (2025.09.15-2025.09.19)》2025-09-22 5、《ETF策略指数跟踪周报—2025/9/22》 2025-09-2 ...
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251013





HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-10-13 09:16
New Stock Issuance - Marco Polo (Stock Code: 001386) issued at a price of 13.75 on October 13, 2025[1] - New material company (Stock Code: 688585) has a tender offer period from September 29 to October 28, 2025[1] - Zitian (Stock Code: 300280) entered the delisting arrangement period with the last trading day on October 13, 2025[1] Market Alerts - Significant abnormal fluctuations reported for Pinming Technology (Stock Code: 688109) on October 10, 2025[1] - Multiple companies including Kesheng Technology (Stock Code: 688788) and Borui Pharmaceutical (Stock Code: 688166) have recent announcements regarding their stock activities[1] - A total of 30 companies have been flagged for abnormal trading activities, indicating potential market volatility[2]
策略周报:波动再度放大,如何应对?-20251012
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-10-12 06:06
Group 1 - The report highlights that the bond market is experiencing a mild recovery due to the central bank's continued support for liquidity, with expectations of a gradual decline in supply in the fourth quarter [2][10][12] - In the stock market, increased volatility is noted, particularly in the financial and low-volatility sectors, as profit-taking in growth sectors leads to significant market fluctuations [3][10][12] - The report suggests a balanced investment approach, focusing on mid to large-cap indices, and indicates that stable funds may enter the market to maintain stability during periods of heightened volatility [3][12][13] Group 2 - Key events include a significant increase in domestic travel during the National Day holiday, with 888 million trips taken, generating a total expenditure of 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase [9] - The report mentions new export control measures on certain materials, which will take effect on November 8, indicating potential impacts on related industries [9] - The report tracks important market indicators, noting that the average daily trading volume in the A-share market has rebounded to 2.603 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity post-holiday [21][22]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251010





HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-10-10 08:27
New Stock Listings - New stock "Aomeisen" (920080) listed at an issue price of 8.25 on October 10, 2025[1] - "Shangwei New Materials" (688585) has a tender offer period from September 29 to October 28, 2025[1] Delisting and Trading Alerts - "Zitian Tui" (300280) is in the delisting arrangement period with only 1 trading day remaining[1] - "Pinming Technology" (688109) is experiencing severe abnormal fluctuations[1] Market Updates - Multiple companies including "Kesi Technology" (688788) and "Bory Medical" (688166) have recent announcements related to trading activities[1] - "Ganfeng Lithium" (002460) and "Luoyang Molybdenum" (603993) have also made recent disclosures[1] Additional Information - A total of 30 companies have been highlighted for various trading activities and announcements on October 10, 2025[1] - Links to detailed announcements for each company are provided for further insights[1]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251009





HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-10-09 09:43
New Stock Offerings - The tender offer for Shangwei New Materials (688585) is open from September 29, 2025, to October 28, 2025[1] - Zitian Tui (300280) is in the delisting adjustment period with only 2 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] Market Alerts - Kesi Technology (688788) and Pinming Technology (688109) have recent announcements but no specific details provided[1] - Magu Technology (688448) is experiencing severe abnormal fluctuations[1] Trading Updates - Multiple companies including Dongjing (002199) and Guosheng Jinkong (002670) have announcements dated October 9, 2025, indicating ongoing trading activities[1] - Companies like Hunan Yuneng (301358) and Wanrun New Energy (688275) have announcements from October 1, 2025, indicating recent trading updates[1] Financial Disclosures - Several companies have disclosed their financial information, with specific announcements linked to their respective stock codes[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for various companies, providing transparency in their financial activities[1]
策略周报:长假期间国内外大事速递-20251009
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-10-09 05:18
Key Insights - The report highlights significant global events, including the U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1 due to the Senate's rejection of a temporary funding bill, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees [8] - Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected its first female president, who is likely to become Japan's first female prime minister, marking a historic political shift [8] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, with indications of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas following U.S. diplomatic efforts [8] - Gold prices have reached a new high, surpassing $4,000 per ounce, as investors reassess their asset allocations amid the U.S. government shutdown, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month [9] - The National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw over 2.432 billion cross-regional trips in China, setting a record for the same period [9] Market Overview - Global markets experienced a bullish trend during the holiday period, with Hong Kong and overseas stock markets rising, particularly driven by Japan's political developments [10] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with potential easing of pressure post-quarter, although the current interest rate cut expectations remain weak [12] - The A-share market is anticipated to remain positive post-holiday, supported by high global risk appetite and favorable conditions in technology, materials, and renewable energy sectors [12] Focus Areas Post-Holiday - Attention will be on China's financial data for September, scheduled for release in the week of October 10 [13]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250930
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-09-30 09:01
New Stock Listings - Yunhan Xincheng (Stock Code: 301563) issued at a price of 27.00[1] - Ruili Kemi (Stock Code: 001285) issued at a price of 42.28[1] Market Alerts - The offer period for the acquisition of Shangwei New Materials (Stock Code: 688585) is from September 29, 2025, to October 28, 2025[1] - Zitian Tui (Stock Code: 300280) has 3 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] Risk Warnings - Ruili Kemi (Stock Code: 001285) has a first-day risk warning[1] - Serious abnormal fluctuations reported for Borui Pharmaceutical (Stock Code: 688166)[1] Other Announcements - Multiple companies including *ST Yatai (Stock Code: 000691) and *ST Zhengping (Stock Code: 603843) have announcements dated September 30, 2025[1] - Various companies have reported abnormal fluctuations on September 25, 2025, including Lianmei Holdings (Stock Code: 600167) and Nanfang Road Machine (Stock Code: 603280)[3]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20250929





HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-09-29 09:57
New Stock Issuance - New stock issuance for Daoshengtianhe (Code: 780026) priced at 5.98 RMB on September 29, 2025[1] - Offer period for the acquisition of Shangwei New Materials (Code: 688585) is from September 29, 2025, to October 28, 2025[1] Delisting and Trading Alerts - Zitian Tui (Code: 300280) is in the delisting preparation period with 4 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] - Significant abnormal fluctuations reported for Kaipu Cloud (Code: 688228) on September 25, 2025[1] Recent Announcements - Multiple companies including Zhonghuan Hailu (Code: 301040) and Shenhuafa A (Code: 000020) have recent announcements regarding their stock activities[1] - A total of 30 companies have made announcements regarding stock fluctuations and trading activities in the past week[1]