Market Sentiment - Pre-holiday trading sentiment for new stocks has shown fluctuations, with a decline in trading willingness observed in the six trading days before the holiday, resulting in an average price change of approximately -2.5% for newly listed stocks since 2024, with only 21.6% achieving positive returns[1] - The market is expected to experience significant events during the holiday, including concerns over U.S. tariff policies, which may lead to a directional choice in trading post-holiday[1] New Stock Performance - In the past two weeks, there have been no new stock subscriptions, and the average first-day gain for newly listed stocks was 248.3%, with a first-week average gain of 206.2%[4] - The average return for newly listed stocks in the first week was -15.3%, indicating pressure on stocks with fully priced first-day valuations[4] Sector Focus - The most active sectors during the holiday period are expected to be AI, robotics, and media, which are likely to dominate market attention due to their structural activity and high investor interest[2] - New stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have shown higher trading activity, while those with previously strong performances are now facing declines[5] Upcoming Listings - One new stock, Honghai Technology, is scheduled to be listed this week, with no new stock subscriptions or inquiries expected[3] - The company has projected a revenue increase of 24.13% to 36.97% for 2024, with net profit growth expected to be between 37.52% and 47.78%[3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to remain flexible and observe market trends closely, focusing on stocks with scarcity and valuation advantages in the new stock sector[1] - Suggested stocks for observation include Suzhou Tianmai, Top Cloud Agriculture, and Laplace, among others, which are considered to have potential based on their market positioning[1]

Market Trends - Most risk factors that worried the market before the holiday did not materialize during the break, indicating a potential continuation of the spring market after the holiday[6] - During the Spring Festival, the nationwide cross-regional passenger flow increased by an average of 12% compared to last year, reflecting strong consumer sentiment[6] - The box office for the Spring Festival reached 1.805 billion yuan, with 35.153 million viewers, both setting new records in Chinese film history[6] - The A-share market has historically shown a tendency to rise in February, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising in 11 out of the last 15 years, averaging a gain of 2.2%[10] Style Assessment - The growth style is expected to dominate in the short to medium term, supported by rising profits and credit, as well as loose liquidity conditions[17] - Industrial profits rebounded significantly, with a monthly year-on-year increase of 11.0% in December, marking the highest level in nearly 11 months[17] - A-share net profit growth is showing a recovery trend, with a year-on-year decline of only 0.1% as of February 3, 2025, compared to -0.3% in the previous quarter[17] Industry Allocation - Focus on technology and certain consumer sectors post-holiday, as historical data shows that consumer and high-growth industries tend to perform well after the Spring Festival[19] - The furniture, home appliances, and semiconductor industries are expected to perform relatively well due to the shift of export shares to emerging markets, minimizing the impact of new tariffs[25] - The domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate has increased by 6.4% from 2020 to 2024, indicating a reduced impact from tariffs compared to 2018[28]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI for January 2025 dropped significantly to 49.1, a decrease of 1.0, falling below the expansion threshold due to the early Spring Festival and increased export risks [1] - The production index fell to 49.8, the lowest in nearly 20 months, primarily due to employees returning home for the Spring Festival, which weakened production activities [1] - New orders and new export orders indices decreased to 49.2 and 46.4 respectively, both hitting 11-month lows, influenced by the early Spring Festival and delayed consumption demand due to subsidy policies [1] Group 2 - The inventory index for finished goods dropped to 46.5, the lowest in a year and a half, indicating a cautious replenishment attitude among enterprises amid external uncertainties [1] - The construction PMI fell to a historic low of 49.3, affected by seasonal factors and weak investment, with expectations of a rebound post-Spring Festival [1] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased to 50.3 but remained in the expansion zone, supported by growth in travel and hospitality services as the Spring Festival approached [1] Group 3 - The report anticipates a significant seasonal rebound in manufacturing PMI in February and March 2025, with expectations of maintaining a stable growth in the second quarter [1] - The domestic policy focus for 2025 is expected to be on substantial consumer subsidies and optimizing local government debt structures, with infrastructure investment growth projected to remain stable [1] - The monetary policy in 2025 is likely to be constrained by domestic credit demand and exchange rate stabilization priorities, while fiscal policy is expected to play a more prominent role in stimulating the economy [1]

Profit Trends - In December, industrial enterprise profits showed a significant improvement, with a year-on-year decline of only -3.3%, rebounding by 18.3 percentage points from November to reach a near 11-month high of 11.0%[1] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises in December increased by 3.7 percentage points to 4.2%, marking a high level for the year, which significantly boosted profit growth compared to November[1] - The cumulative cost rate for December dropped by 0.18 percentage points to 85.16%, reversing a five-month trend of deep profit drag from operating costs to a positive contribution of +5.3 percentage points[1] Sector Performance - All three major sectors (manufacturing, mining, and utilities) saw profit improvements, but the reasons varied; mining and utilities benefited mainly from cost reductions, while manufacturing profits were driven by "two new" subsidies and export boosts[1] - Manufacturing sector profits narrowed their year-on-year decline to -3.9%, with revenue improving by 0.5 percentage points, indicating a positive operational trend[1] - In specific manufacturing segments, profits improved due to fiscal "two new" subsidies and export boosts, with notable gains in computer communication and electrical machinery sectors[1] Inventory and Economic Outlook - Nominal finished goods inventory remained low at 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a potential peak in the current inventory replenishment cycle, with actual inventory growth declining by 0.2 percentage points to 5.7%[1] - The report suggests that the 2025 domestic consumption stimulus policies need to be robust and sustained to significantly boost industrial enterprise confidence[1] - For 2025, the expected scale of central government subsidies for consumption is projected to reach around 500 billion, which aligns with previous expectations and is anticipated to stimulate durable goods demand[1] Risks and Challenges - The external environment for export enterprises is expected to be more uncertain in 2025, with potential risks from increased tariffs and trade policies[1] - The report highlights that the overall industrial profit growth trend in 2024 was weak due to several factors, including real estate market adjustments and external pressures on high-end exports[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in its annual performance, driven by the accelerated release of ceramic heaters and a rapid increase in customer procurement demand [2][3] - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is between 840 million to 860 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 74.83% to 79.00%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 302 million to 312 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 268.92% to 281.14% [2][10] - The growth is attributed to the domestic substitution of key components in semiconductor equipment, successful industrialization of new products and materials, and a rebound in global semiconductor capital expenditure [3][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 8.48 billion yuan, with growth rates of 76.5% for 2024, 33.0% for 2025, and 25.6% for 2026 [5][11] - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 309 million yuan, with growth rates of 277.1% for 2024, 39.7% for 2025, and 30.1% for 2026 [10][11] Product Development and Market Demand - The company has accelerated the release of ceramic heaters, which are crucial components for semiconductor wafer manufacturers, addressing key bottlenecks in the industry [3] - New products and materials have been successfully industrialized, with a focus on high-value, high-technical-difficulty products such as ceramic heaters and electrostatic chucks [4] - The demand from customers in the semiconductor sector is rapidly increasing, driven by a recovery in capital expenditure and the ongoing push for domestic production of key components [4] Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 25.64 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 3.32 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.71 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 83.1 for 2024, decreasing to 45.7 by 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][9] Core Viewpoints - The new policy for distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems has been implemented, laying a foundation for both quantitative and qualitative growth in the industry [4] - By the end of 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed PV is expected to reach 370 million kilowatts, accounting for 42% of total PV installed capacity, with new installations of 120 million kilowatts making up 43% of new PV installations [4] - The distributed PV generation is projected to generate 346.2 billion kilowatt-hours, representing 41% of total PV generation [4] - The new management measures aim to support the healthy and sustainable development of distributed PV, balancing development and regulation [4] - The policy encourages the integration of distributed PV into the electricity market, with significant increases in market participation ratios for distributed PV and wind power [4] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The National Energy Administration revised the "Management Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation," promoting sustainable growth [4] - The policy emphasizes the need for new projects to meet the "Four Requirements" for grid connection, reflecting a trend that may become a common requirement across provinces [4] Market Dynamics - The management measures facilitate the entry of distributed PV into the market, with a target of 60% participation for PV in 2025 [4] - The introduction of virtual power plants and aggregator models is expected to accelerate the penetration of new business models in the distributed PV sector [5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on upgrading and transforming distribution networks, as the ongoing electricity market reform presents both challenges and opportunities for market participants [5] - Continuous growth potential in distributed PV is anticipated, driven by increasing demand for green electricity and carbon emission controls [5]

Fiscal Policy Outlook - In 2025, fiscal policy is expected to become the primary proactive policy source, with a focus on boosting domestic consumption through a planned allocation of 500 billion yuan from special bonds for high-intensity consumption subsidies[1] - The nominal GDP growth rate is projected to have limited increases, with a significant rise in the deficit ratio expected to reach 3.6%-4.0% due to a large fiscal revenue gap and declining land transfer fees[1] - Special bonds are anticipated to expand to 4.2 trillion yuan, with approximately 800 billion yuan earmarked for affordable housing and recovering idle land, aiming to stabilize the real estate market[1] Fiscal Revenue Insights - In December, general public budget revenue reached 2.07 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.3%, driven primarily by a 93.8% increase in non-tax revenue, contributing 22.2 percentage points to the monthly growth[2] - Tax revenue's contribution to fiscal income growth slightly decreased to 2.0 percentage points, with consumption subsidies positively impacting VAT, corporate income tax, and consumption tax, which collectively contributed 6.3 percentage points to the monthly revenue[2] - Land transfer revenue for the year ended at 4.87 trillion yuan, marking a 16% decline, while government fund income rebounded by 19.8% in December, indicating a recovery in land sales activity[2] Expenditure and Debt Management - December's general public budget expenditure rose by 5.8% year-on-year, supporting a cumulative annual growth rate of 3.6%, close to the 2024 fiscal expenditure target[2] - Regular expenditures, particularly in education, social security, and health, contributed significantly to the monthly expenditure growth, while investment-related spending remained stable[2] - The execution of debt replacement has been decisive, alleviating corporate debt burdens, but improvements in fiscal and economic cycles are expected to take time[2]

Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to experience a short-term uptrend after the Spring Festival, driven by policy easing, external events, and liquidity conditions [4][7] - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen in 11 out of 15 years within 10 trading days after the Spring Festival [4][7] - The report recommends holding stocks during the Spring Festival, as the risks are expected to be limited, and the market may strengthen post-holiday [4][11] Weekly Focus: Holding Stocks or Cash During Spring Festival - Post-Spring Festival market performance is heavily influenced by policies, external events, and liquidity conditions [4][7] - Policy easing and positive external events tend to strengthen the market, while tightening policies or negative events may weaken it [4][7] - Liquidity easing, such as central bank rate cuts, has historically led to stronger post-holiday market performance [4][7] Weekly Strategy: Potential Spring Market Rally - Economic and profit recovery trends are expected to continue, with consumer spending likely to rebound due to holiday travel and policy support [16][17] - Liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential further easing measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts [24][26] - Risk appetite is expected to rise post-holiday, with limited risks during the holiday period [32] Industry Allocation: Focus on Tech, Consumer, and Low-Valuation Sectors - High-growth sectors and those with seasonal effects, such as tech, consumer goods, and finance, tend to outperform before the Spring Festival [36][39] - Communication, agriculture, and automotive sectors have shown strong year-end profit growth, which may positively impact market performance [41][43] - Sectors with low export exposure to the US and high domestic reliance, such as communication and textiles, are less likely to be impacted by potential tariff increases [43][44] - Strategic high-tech industries, including semiconductors and medical devices, have seen increased domestic production rates, reducing their vulnerability to tariff shocks [44][48]

Trade Policy Impact - Trump's consideration of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada could significantly impact China's exports[2] - Anticipated "rush exports" may lead to a natural decline in exports post-December, with a potential decrease in 2025 exports due to preemptive actions taken by various industries[2] - Increased tariffs could raise prices of goods exported to the U.S., reducing export volumes despite a declining share of U.S. exports since 2018[2] Currency and Economic Outlook - The cautious approach of Trump regarding tariffs has led to a temporary appreciation of the RMB, with the USD index dropping from nearly 110 to around 107.5 as of January 24[8] - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike of 25 basis points has further alleviated upward pressure on the USD index[8] - China's monetary policy adjustments, including a slowdown in net bond purchases and maintaining interest rates, have contributed to the RMB's temporary recovery[10] Future Projections and Risks - The net export growth that contributed 1.5 percentage points to China's economic growth in 2024 faces significant uncertainty due to potential tariffs and trade barriers[12] - The RMB may face depreciation pressures if the USD index rebounds after the initial high inflation period in the U.S.[12] - The ultimate source of financial allocation is linked to household wealth management, which is directly related to the real estate cycle's stabilization[12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of approximately 844 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of about 33% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be around 97 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 95% [1] - The company has launched new products, TL721X and TL751X, which are expected to enhance growth in the edge AI era [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 844 million yuan, 1.115 billion yuan, and 1.466 billion yuan respectively, up from previous estimates [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 97 million yuan, 171 million yuan, and 309 million yuan respectively [4] Financial Performance - The company has shown a consistent increase in quarterly revenue, with Q4 2024 expected to reach approximately 257 million yuan, a 16% increase from Q3 2024 [2] - The gross profit margin has been improving, with reported margins of 44.14%, 46.18%, and 47.90% for the first three quarters of 2024 [2] Product Development - The TL721X chip is noted for its ultra-low power consumption, achieving a working current as low as 1mA, and is positioned to meet the demands of high-performance IoT devices [3] - The TL751X chip features high performance and multi-protocol capabilities, targeting applications in smart audio, smart home, and wearable devices [3]