Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized a clear requirement to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, contrasting with previous meetings[11] - Policies to stabilize the real estate market in 2025 are expected to include increasing special bonds by approximately 600-800 billion RMB for housing and land recovery[12] - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to rise to around 4.2% in 2025, with an expected issuance of over 1.5 trillion RMB in ordinary government bonds[31] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Strategies - There is a strong focus on boosting domestic demand, with consumption being prioritized over investment growth[17] - The central government is expected to allocate around 500 billion RMB for high-intensity consumption subsidies in 2025, expanding the scope to include furniture and communication equipment[18] - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to remain stable, with a shift towards digital and smart construction as new growth points[18] Group 3: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Monetary policy is expected to shift to a moderately loose stance, with an anticipated interest rate cut of around 40 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio reduction of 100-150 basis points in 2025[44] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to fluctuate between 7.2 and 7.6 against the USD, allowing for some depreciation to mitigate export impacts[44] - The focus will be on reducing financing costs for the real economy, with policy rates and LPR expected to decrease by approximately 40 basis points[45]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In November, the overall CPI decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[2] - The food CPI fell by 2.7% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the seasonal average decline by 2.5 percentage points, leading to a year-on-year drop of 1.9 percentage points to 1.0%[2] - The core CPI's increase was driven by industrial consumer goods, marking a second consecutive month of slight recovery, with a 0.1 percentage point rise to 0.3%[2] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while month-on-month it increased by 0.1%, marking the first slight increase in five months[2] - The main drivers for the PPI's month-on-month increase were the oil and petrochemical industry chains, with coal mining and black metal prices showing a weakening trend, indicating a lack of significant domestic investment demand[2] - The PPI's unique pricing logic is influenced by the domestic supply-demand cycle, particularly in the coal and metallurgy sectors, which differ from other major industrial countries[2] Group 3: Future Projections - The report predicts a gradual recovery of the core CPI, estimating a year-on-year CPI of 0.5% in December and an average of 0.6% for 2025, which is a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points from 2024[2] - The government aims to maintain a high public budget deficit rate of 4.2% in 2025, with approximately 500 billion allocated for durable consumer goods subsidies and 600-800 billion for affordable housing and land recovery[2] - The emphasis on sustainable consumption growth rather than reliance on traditional infrastructure investment is highlighted as a key strategy for economic resilience[2]

Company Overview - The report focuses on **Lintai New Materials (920106.BJ)**, a company specializing in the R&D, production, and sales of automotive automatic transmission friction plates [2] - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of friction plates for passenger vehicle automatic transmissions and has a strong position in the domestic market [16] - Lintai New Materials has established stable supply relationships with major domestic automatic transmission manufacturers and OEMs, including SAIC Transmission, Wanliyang, Dongan Engine, Geely Transmission, and BYD [16] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2023, the company achieved revenues of **132 million yuan**, **176 million yuan**, and **207 million yuan**, with YoY growth rates of **37.70%**, **33.82%**, and **17.33%** respectively [17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders grew from **16.4 million yuan** in 2021 to **49.2 million yuan** in 2023, with YoY growth rates of **12.53%**, **50.94%**, and **98.44%** respectively [17] - In the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of **193 million yuan**, a YoY increase of **36.76%**, and net profit of **46 million yuan**, a YoY increase of **72.57%** [17] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin have remained at relatively high levels compared to industry peers, with a gross profit margin of **42.07%** in 2023 [20][42] Industry Analysis - The domestic market size for passenger vehicle automatic transmission friction plates in 2023 was approximately **6.119 billion yuan**, with a projected growth to **13.465 billion yuan** by 2035 [23][32] - In the engineering machinery and agricultural machinery sectors, the market size for automatic transmission friction plates is expected to grow from **1.298 billion yuan** in 2023 to **5.726 billion yuan** by 2035 [30][32] - The commercial vehicle sector also presents growth opportunities, with the market size for automatic transmission friction plates expected to increase from **52 million yuan** in 2023 to **294 million yuan** by 2035 [32] Investment Highlights - Lintai New Materials is a leader in the domestic passenger vehicle automatic transmission friction plate market and is well-positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution in this field [16][33] - The company has successfully developed wet paper-based friction plates that break the technological monopoly of the US and Japan, achieving domestic substitution and industrialization of original domestic technology [33] - Lintai New Materials has a strong presence in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, with NEV-related sales revenue increasing from **1.04%** of total revenue in 2021 to **22.53%** in the first half of 2024 [37] - The company has established stable cooperation with NEV leaders such as BYD, supplying friction plates for BYD's DM-i plug-in hybrid models [37] IPO and Fundraising Projects - The company plans to raise funds through an IPO for two main projects: 1) A project to produce **30 million pieces** of paper-based friction plates and mating plates annually for automotive (including NEVs), engineering machinery, and high-end agricultural machinery [38][39] 2) A multi-purpose wet friction plate R&D center project focusing on the development of friction plates for pure electric vehicles, agricultural machinery, engineering machinery, and heavy-duty trucks [38][39] - The total investment for these projects is **213.4 million yuan**, with **116 million yuan** to be raised through the IPO [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" which indicates an expected performance that exceeds the relevant market index by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing advancements in AI technology, particularly in reasoning applications, with significant developments from key players like Stanford University and OpenAI [2]. - The emergence of new AI models and products, such as OpenAI's recent announcements, is setting industry benchmarks for technology and user engagement [2]. - The report emphasizes the critical role of technological breakthroughs, industry implementation, and collaboration in bridging the gap between science and application in AI development [2]. - AI's evolution is marked by the integration of algorithms, data, and computing power, which are essential for advancing AI capabilities [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that AI technology continues to iterate with new breakthroughs, showcasing the importance of technological advancements in driving the industry forward [2]. - The AI sector is expected to see significant growth in edge applications, with increasing deployment in various fields such as AI glasses, AI headphones, and autonomous vehicles [2]. Key Developments - Major announcements from companies like Google DeepMind and Meta regarding new AI models indicate a competitive landscape focused on enhancing virtual world generation and performance [2]. - The report mentions the anticipated release of high-output robotic products, reflecting the ongoing integration of machine learning technologies [2]. Market Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Haiguang Information, Longxin Zhongke, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery in the market [4].

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 12 月 08 日 \n外力继续驱动板块结构性活跃，但首日情绪降温或暗示变化也在累积 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n新股专题 | | 投资要点 | 分析师 李蕙 | | 新股周观点：在多个重大产业事件影响下，新股次新板块延续结构性活跃行情；但 | SAC 执业证书编号： S0910519100001 | | 首日交投情绪出现剧烈波动，可能代表短端新股做多动能分歧加大、变化或也正在 | lihui1@huajinsc.cn | | 累积。短期，重大会议及产业事件发酵预计还将推动板块局部热度，但我们依然强 | 相关报告 | | 调尾端行情应保持灵活适度和耐心谨慎，重视平衡估值性价 ...

Group 1 - The core drivers of the year-end market rally are policies, external events, and liquidity, with historical data showing that the Shanghai Composite Index has an average increase of 10% during such rallies, lasting between 15 to 80 trading days [1][15]. - Positive policies and external events are crucial for initiating a year-end rally, as seen in previous years when favorable economic meetings or agreements led to market upswings [1][15]. - Tight liquidity at year-end can delay the start of the rally, as evidenced by instances where central bank actions led to market slowdowns [1][15]. Group 2 - The report suggests that year-end policies may be positive and liquidity may be loose, indicating a potential for a year-end market rally [2][19]. - Existing policies are expected to accelerate in implementation, with significant funding allocated for infrastructure and consumer incentives, which could boost domestic demand [2][19]. - External risks are anticipated to be limited, with geopolitical tensions showing signs of easing, which may positively influence market sentiment [2][19]. Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to continue a strong trend, with economic recovery and profit growth likely to persist [3][30]. - Economic indicators such as the manufacturing PMI have shown improvement, suggesting a gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector [3][35]. - The real estate market is also showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in sales in major cities, supported by favorable policies [3][36]. Group 4 - Short-term investment focus is recommended on technology growth and core assets, as historical trends indicate that technology sectors often lead market rallies [4][19]. - Specific sectors such as military, communication, and healthcare are highlighted as having potential for growth, alongside consumer sectors like home appliances and textiles [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy and industry trends that favor sectors like AI applications, domestic software, and semiconductor industries [4][19].

Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, a significant rebound from the previous month's impact of hurricanes and strikes, which saw a reduction of 191,000 jobs[1] - The combined job revisions for September and October amounted to an increase of 56,000 jobs[1] - The service sector, heavily impacted by hurricanes, saw a substantial rebound, while manufacturing jobs increased by 22,000 in November, recovering from previous losses[1] Labor Market Indicators - The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in November, while the labor force participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[1] - Average hourly wage growth remained steady at 4.0% for the second consecutive month, indicating strong demand in the labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The strong employment and wage growth in November support expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will not lower interest rates in December[1] - The potential for a wage inflation spiral may increase due to the policies of the incoming Trump administration, which could lead to a tighter labor market and rising consumer prices[1] - The dollar index is expected to strengthen, posing challenges for domestic monetary policy and exchange rate management in China[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that it is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194.SH), specializes in the research, production, and sales of electric forklifts and other powered industrial vehicles, achieving significant revenue growth and maintaining a leading market position in the electric forklift sector [17][18]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenues increasing from 4.206 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.921 billion yuan in 2023, and a net profit growth from 352.8 million yuan to 805.7 million yuan during the same period [7][18]. - The electric forklift market is experiencing a notable shift towards electric vehicles, with the penetration rate of electric forklifts in China reaching 67.87% in 2023, reflecting a growing trend of replacing internal combustion forklifts [37][34]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company reported revenues of 4.206 billion yuan, 5.011 billion yuan, and 5.921 billion yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 69.84%, 19.13%, and 18.16% [18]. - The net profit for the same years was 352.8 million yuan, 627 million yuan, and 805.7 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 59.34%, 77.71%, and 28.51% [18]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 4.827 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.79%, and a net profit of 650 million yuan, up 4.27% [18]. Industry Situation - The global powered industrial vehicle market is experiencing stable growth, with electric forklifts gaining market share. The sales volume of electric forklifts increased from 534,700 units in 2013 to 1,544,000 units in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.19% [26][34]. - In China, the sales volume of electric forklifts surpassed that of internal combustion forklifts for the first time in 2020, and by 2023, the market share of electric forklifts reached 67.87% [34][37]. Company Highlights - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer in the electric forklift sector, with a market share exceeding 30% from 2021 to 2023. The company has maintained its position as the top producer of electric warehouse forklifts and lithium battery forklifts in China [37][38]. - The company is actively expanding into the mobile handling robot business, which is becoming a trend in the industry due to rising labor costs and the need for automation [38]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in four projects through its IPO, including the production of electric forklifts and smart industrial robots, which are expected to enhance production capacity and market share [39][42]. Comparison with Peers - In 2023, Zhongli Co., Ltd. achieved revenues of 5.921 billion yuan and a net profit of 806 million yuan, while comparable companies had an average revenue of 13.568 billion yuan and an average PE-TTM of 11.05X [44].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to the relevant market index [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Boke Testing (301598.SZ), specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, sales, and system integration of servo hydraulic testing equipment and automotive testing equipment. It has established a strong technical foundation through the acquisition of Servotest and exclusive agency rights from the international supplier, Bock [15][37]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with projected revenue for 2024 expected to increase by 9.53% year-on-year, alongside a 4.10% increase in net profit [46]. - Boke Testing has a market share of approximately 15% in the high-end servo hydraulic testing market and is actively expanding into new applications such as electric vehicles and autonomous driving [37][41]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 4.05 billion, 4.59 billion, and 4.69 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.42%, 13.14%, and 2.27% respectively. The net profit for the same years was 0.82 billion, 0.98 billion, and 0.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.68%, 18.73%, and -1.49% [17][46]. Industry Situation - The company focuses on the servo hydraulic testing equipment and automotive testing equipment sectors. The global hydraulic market is maturing, with a market size of approximately 306.82 billion euros in 2022, and China being the second-largest market [26][28]. Company Highlights - Boke Testing has established itself as a leading provider of servo hydraulic testing systems and automotive testing systems, benefiting from its early technical foundation and exclusive agency rights [37][41]. - The company has developed a significant customer base, including major automotive manufacturers and universities, enhancing its market presence [16][37]. Peer Comparison - Compared to its peers, Boke Testing's revenue of 4.69 billion yuan in 2023 is below the average of 9.88 billion yuan for comparable companies, but its gross margin of 44.97% is in the mid-high range among peers [6][47].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected increase in stock price greater than 15% over the next 6-12 months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Boke Testing (301598.SZ), specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, sales, and system integration of servo hydraulic testing equipment and automotive testing equipment. It has established a strong technical foundation through the acquisition of Servotest and exclusive agency rights from the international supplier, Bock [15][37]. - The company reported revenues of 405.5 million, 458.8 million, and 469.2 million yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 9.42%, 13.14%, and 2.27% [17][46]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 14.33%, and a net profit of 65 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 83.48% [17]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved operating revenues of 4.05 billion, 4.59 billion, and 4.69 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with corresponding net profits of 0.82 billion, 0.98 billion, and 0.96 billion yuan [17][46]. - The revenue for 2023 was primarily derived from three segments: servo hydraulic testing system solutions (1.83 billion yuan, 39.08%), automotive testing system solutions (2.76 billion yuan, 58.72%), and agency services (0.10 billion yuan, 2.20%) [17]. Industry Situation - The company focuses on the servo hydraulic testing equipment and automotive testing equipment sectors, which are experiencing growth due to increasing demand for advanced testing solutions in various industries [25][29]. - The global hydraulic market is maturing, with a projected market size of 306.82 billion euros in 2022, and China being the second-largest market with a share of approximately 36.52% [26]. Company Highlights - The acquisition of Servotest has positioned the company as a leading provider of servo hydraulic testing systems and automotive testing systems in China, leveraging over sixty years of technical expertise from Servotest [37]. - The company has established itself as a core supplier in the high-end servo hydraulic testing market, holding approximately 15% market share, and is actively expanding into new applications such as electric vehicles and autonomous driving [41]. Comparable Company Analysis - Compared to peers like Lian Ce Technology and Su Shi Testing, the company’s revenue for 2023 was 4.69 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, while the average revenue of comparable companies was 9.88 billion yuan [6][47]. - The company maintains a gross margin of 44.97%, which is competitive within the industry [47].