证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 周 报 反弹或将持续，关注 AI、国产化、数据 要素主线 ——计算机行业周报（2024.9.23—2024.9.27） 日期: [行业Table_Industry] : 计算机 shzqdatemark 2024年10月08日 [Table_Author] 分析师: 吴婷婷 Tel: 021-53686158 E-mail: wutingting@shzq.com SAC 编号: S0870523080001 [Table_QuotePic] 最近一年行业指数与沪深 300 比较 -36% -31% -26% -21% -16% -11% -5% 0% 5% 10/23 12/23 02/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 计算机 沪深300 [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《信创订单密集落地，重视自主安全主 线》 ——2024 年 09 月 24 日 《大模型 Scaling Law 开启新范式，端侧 智能加速落地》 ——2024 年 09 月 18 日 《华为全联接大会将至，政策加速信创产 业推进》 ——2024 年 09 月 10 日 《AI 大模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [6][22]. Core Insights - The communication sector is expected to outperform the market due to favorable monetary policies and strong market sentiment [6][14]. - The sector has shown resilience and better performance compared to the broader market during previous bull markets, indicating potential for excess returns [8][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review and Outlook - Monetary policy initiatives have been implemented to boost market confidence, including a 20 basis point reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5% and a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market [6][14]. - The communication index rose by 23.77% from September 24 to September 30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, which increased by 21.37% and 30.26%, respectively [6][14]. Policy Expectations and Market Performance - The U.S. economy shows signs of a soft landing, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 254,000 in September, exceeding expectations [7][15]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index saw significant gains of 26.59% and 45.65%, respectively, from September 24 to October 7, with further increases during the holiday period [7][15]. Communication Sector Performance in Bull Markets - Historical analysis indicates that the communication index has consistently outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the bull markets of 2007 and 2015, suggesting a higher valuation ceiling due to its cyclical nature and high-tech attributes [8][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication sector [6]. Core Insights - The communication sector is expected to outperform the market due to favorable monetary policies and strong market sentiment [6][14]. - The sector has shown resilience and better performance compared to the broader market during previous bull markets, indicating potential for excess returns [8][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review and Outlook - Monetary policy initiatives have been implemented to boost market confidence, including a 20 basis point reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5% and a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market [14]. - The communication index rose by 23.77% from September 24 to September 30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, which increased by 21.37% and 30.26%, respectively [14][15]. Policy Expectations and Market Performance - Positive economic indicators from the U.S. suggest a higher likelihood of a soft landing, while domestic policies are anticipated to support market recovery [7][15]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index saw significant gains of 26.59% and 45.65%, respectively, from September 24 to October 7 [7][15]. Communication Sector Performance in Bull Markets - Historical analysis shows that the communication index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the bull markets of 2007 and 2015, with the communication index reaching its peak after the Shanghai Composite [8][17]. - The communication sector is characterized by high earnings elasticity and a higher valuation ceiling compared to traditional industries, making it a favorable investment opportunity [8][17].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [9] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a rebound in the computer industry, driven by supportive policies and improved expectations for IT spending [6] - Key investment themes include AI, domestic production, and data elements, with a focus on financial IT and the ongoing development of AI models [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of the domestic production trend, particularly led by Huawei, and the growth of the HarmonyOS ecosystem [7][8] - Data element policies are expected to be released soon, which will enhance the value of enterprise data resources [8] Market Review - During the week of September 23-27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.81%, the ChiNext Index increased by 22.71%, and the computer sector (Shenwan) index surged by 17.74%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 4.93 percentage points [5] Weekly Perspective - Recent financial policies from the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies signal strong support for economic development, which is expected to improve IT spending outlooks [6] - The report notes significant advancements in AI, including the release of new models by OpenAI and Meta, which are enhancing edge computing capabilities [6][7] Investment Recommendations - Suggested investment areas include: 1. Financial IT: Companies like Hengsheng Electronics, Topoint Software, and Jinzheng Shares [9] 2. AI Computing: Firms such as Zhongke Shuguang and Inspur Information [9] 3. AI Applications: Companies like iFlytek and Kingsoft Office [9] 4. Domestic Production: Firms including Dameng Data and China Software [9] 5. HarmonyOS: Companies like Softcom Power and Runhe Software [9] 6. Data Elements: Firms such as Taiji Shares and Yihualu [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [9][44]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that recent policy measures are expected to support a rebound in core assets, improving the valuation and profit expectations for the chemical sector [8]. - The report suggests that the overall macroeconomic outlook is likely to improve, which may lead to a recovery in domestic consumption demand and a rebound in the chemical sector's valuation and profitability [8]. Market Trends - The basic chemical index increased by 14.31% over the past week, while the CSI 300 index rose by 15.70%, indicating that the basic chemical sector underperformed the broader market by 1.39 percentage points, ranking 18th among all sectors [12]. - The sub-sectors with the highest gains included fluorochemicals (18.56%), potash fertilizers (18.43%), and other chemical products (17.43%) [14]. Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were R32 (29.03%), liquid chlorine (28.38%), and methyl acrylate (12.20%) [20][21]. - The top five products with the largest weekly price declines included polyvinyl alcohol (-9.77%) and octanol (-6.67%) [22]. Key Stock Dynamics - Notable stock performances included Haixin Energy Technology (69.23%), Defang Nano (47.80%), and Ningxin New Materials (46.13%) [17]. - Conversely, stocks with the lowest performance included AkzoNobel (1.66%) and Changjiang Materials (1.89%) [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several key sectors: 1. Refrigerants, with a positive outlook for companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. 2. Chemical fibers, suggesting attention to Huafeng Chemical and New Fengming. 3. High-quality stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng. 4. Tire sector stocks like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire. 5. Agricultural chemicals, recommending companies like Yara International and Salt Lake Potash. 6. Growth stocks, including Blue Sky Technology and Shengquan Group [9][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Recent policy support has led to a stabilization in the underperforming cyclical building materials sector. Key measures include lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting down payment ratios, which are expected to alleviate financial pressure on homebuyers and boost consumption potential [6][9]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring leading building materials companies with strong cash flow and dividend yields above 2.25%, especially in light of new monetary tools introduced to support the sector [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Developments - A series of financial policies were announced to support the real estate sector, including a reduction in existing mortgage rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points and a unified minimum down payment ratio of 15% [6]. - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market and improve the quality of commodity housing construction [6]. Market Data - National average cement price was reported at 501.16 RMB/ton, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.1%. However, certain regions experienced price increases, indicating regional demand recovery [7]. - The average price of flat glass was 1245 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 5.6%, while inventory levels decreased, suggesting a potential shift towards inventory reduction [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building materials leaders such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao, as well as cement companies like Huaxin Cement and Anhui Conch Cement, which are expected to benefit from improved demand in the upcoming peak season [9].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [6] Core Insights - The industry is witnessing a shift from "friend drinking" to "friendship drinking," emphasizing lifestyle marketing and personalized consumer experiences, as highlighted by Moutai's chairman [6][42] - Eight liquor companies made it to the "Asia Brand 500" list, showcasing the strength of Chinese food and beverage brands on an international scale [6][42] - The liquor industry in Yibin saw a growth of 9.3% from January to August, indicating robust demand in the sector [6][42] - Partnerships between liquor brands and high-end culinary institutions, such as the collaboration between Wuliangye and Michelin, are aimed at expanding market reach and enhancing brand prestige [6][42] - The market for "Chinese health water" is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 88% over the next five years [9][45] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Moutai is focusing on marketing reforms to enhance consumer engagement and adapt to changing preferences [6][42] - Wuliangye's collaboration with Michelin aims to explore new culinary pairings and expand its international presence [6][42] - The establishment of national standards for Dongxiang liquor is set to enhance quality and marketability [6][42] Snack Foods - Innovative flavors in snack foods are emerging, targeting younger consumers with unique offerings like spicy mooncakes and flavored seeds [7][44] - Companies are leveraging quirky flavors to attract attention and differentiate themselves in a competitive market [7][44] Beer Market - The global beer market is expected to grow from $650.2 billion in 2023 to $873 billion by 2034, driven by rising consumer interest in craft and premium beers [8][45] - The Asia-Pacific region is identified as a key growth area for beer diversification, including non-alcoholic options [8][45] Soft Drinks - Yuanqi Forest's "Zizai Water" is projected to exceed 1 billion yuan in sales, marking it as a significant product in the health beverage segment [9][45] - The market for traditional health waters is rapidly expanding, with a focus on health-conscious consumers [9][45] Frozen Foods - The collaboration between Lucky Coffee and Qianwei Central Kitchen to introduce breakfast options reflects a trend towards convenience and innovation in the frozen food sector [10][46] Condiments - The marketing empowerment meetings held by Zhongju Gaoxin aim to enhance team capabilities and drive strategic goals [10][47] Frozen Baking - Mondelēz International's partnership with a leading Chinese bakery manufacturer indicates a growing market for frozen baked goods in China [10][47]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is transitioning to the "AI + Robotics" sector while upgrading its core lawn mower business, which is expected to lead to significant changes in its fundamentals [2][4]. - The company has established partnerships in the North American market and launched new intelligent lawn mower products, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][4]. - The demand for humanoid robots in medical and caregiving scenarios in China is projected to exceed 400,000 units, highlighting a substantial market opportunity [3][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Strategic Transition - The company, a major player in the domestic garden machinery industry, is focusing on upgrading its lawn mower business and entering the humanoid and quadruped robot markets [2][9]. - The company has restructured its overseas market organization to enhance its presence in North America and has established partnerships with major retailers [9][18]. 2. Lawn Mower Business - The company is expanding its market reach and product categories, with a focus on the North American market and the introduction of intelligent, unmanned lawn mowers [2][18]. - The new generation of intelligent lawn mowers, UNICUT H1, is set to be launched by the end of 2024, featuring advanced capabilities [2][20]. 3. Humanoid Robot Development - The company has invested in 1X, a humanoid robot company, and is actively pursuing business and supply chain collaborations [2][21]. - The newly released humanoid robot, Neo, is designed for home use and emphasizes safety and flexibility, with unique hardware and software features [3][25]. - The potential market for humanoid robots in medical and caregiving settings in China is substantial, with estimated demand from hospitals, nursing homes, and elderly individuals [27][28]. 4. Quadruped Robot Launch - The company has introduced the industrial-grade quadruped robot, Lingrui P1, which is competitive in various applications such as inspection and security [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Zhongjian Technology (002779) [2]. Core Views - Zhongjian Technology is transitioning to the "AI + Robotics" sector while upgrading its core lawn mower business. The company aims to tap into the supply chain for humanoid robots, particularly in the context of Open AI [2][4]. - The company has established partnerships with major U.S. retailers and launched a new generation of intelligent lawn mowers, UNICUT H1, which is expected to hit the market by the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The humanoid robot Neo, developed in collaboration with 1X, is designed for home use and emphasizes safety and flexibility, with a significant market potential in medical and elderly care scenarios [3][4][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zhongjian Technology is a leading manufacturer in the domestic garden machinery industry, established in 1997 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2015. The company is focusing on upgrading its lawn mower business and entering the humanoid and quadruped robot markets [9][10]. 2. Lawn Mower Business - The company is expanding its market presence in North America and enhancing its product line with intelligent and unmanned lawn mowers. It has formed partnerships with major U.S. retailers and launched the UNICUT H1, which features advanced automation capabilities [2][18][20]. 3. Humanoid Robots - Zhongjian Technology has invested in 1X, a leading humanoid robot company, to explore business and supply chain opportunities. The humanoid robot Neo is designed for household tasks and is expected to meet the growing demand in medical and elderly care sectors, with an estimated market need of over 400,000 units in China [21][27][28]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts significant revenue growth for Zhongjian Technology, with expected revenues of 1.12 billion yuan in 2024, 1.68 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.50 billion yuan in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 68.0%, 50.0%, and 48.7% respectively. Net profits are projected to reach 90 million yuan, 130 million yuan, and 206 million yuan over the same period [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [4][5]. Core Insights - Meta has launched its latest headset Quest 3S and AR glasses Orion, indicating a strong push into the AR smart terminal market, which is expected to drive growth in the consumer electronics sector [4]. - The global semiconductor revenue is projected to grow by 16% in 2024, with logic and memory chips expected to increase by 10.7% and 76.8% respectively, indicating robust demand [5]. - China's semiconductor self-sufficiency is expected to rise from 18% in 2022 to 26.6% by 2027, reflecting ongoing improvements in the domestic industry [5]. Market Review - The SW electronics index rose by 14.14% in the past week, although it underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.56 percentage points [4][8]. - Among the six sub-sectors, semiconductors led with a 15.84% increase, while other sectors like electronic chemicals and consumer electronics also showed positive growth [4][10]. Industry News - NVIDIA's Blackwell platform is anticipated to boost the penetration rate of liquid cooling solutions in AI servers from around 10% in 2024 to over 20% by 2025 [17]. - The iPhone 15 Pro Max has become the best-selling smartphone globally in the first half of 2024, with a total shipment of 21.8 million units [18]. - The global chip market revenue reached $162.1 billion in Q2 2024, marking a 6.7% quarter-over-quarter increase and setting a new historical high [19]. Company Announcements - Nanda Optoelectronics announced a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per share, totaling approximately 27.16 million yuan [29]. - Gohua Technology plans to repurchase shares with a total fund of no less than 50 million yuan and not exceeding 100 million yuan [29].