Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), US stocks declined, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index rose. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.08%, -0.31%, and -1.02% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 1.83%; the Hang Seng Index changed by 0.93% [2]. - A - shares generally rose, with both growth and blue - chip stocks increasing. The wind All - A Index rose 1.71%. Different indices such as the CSI A100, CSI 300, etc., had varying degrees of increase. In terms of sector styles, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, and the North Securities 50 Index changed by 0.41% [3]. - Most industries rose, with Hong Kong brokers, rare earths, real estate, and photovoltaic leading the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, only 3 declined and 27 rose. The leading industries were comprehensive finance and real estate with a weekly increase of over 6%. ETFs related to Hong Kong securities, rare earths, etc., also had a weekly increase of over 6% [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Conditions - In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), the price of interest - rate bonds fell, and the yield curve flattened. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.25% compared to July 4, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond increased by 2.20 BP to 1.6653% [5]. - The capital price increased slightly, and the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal. As of July 11, 2025, R007 was 1.5086%, up 2.05 BP from July 4, 2025, and DR007 was 1.4718%, up 4.96 BP. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan in the past week [6]. - The bond - market leverage level increased. The current 7 - day capital cost is lower than the 5 - year treasury bond yield. The bank - to - bank pledged repurchase trading volume (5 - day average) increased from 7.60 trillion yuan on July 4, 2025, to 8.21 trillion yuan on July 11, 2025 [7]. - US bond yields increased, and the curve became steeper. As of July 11, 2025, the 10 - year US bond yield increased by 8 BP to 4.43% compared to July 4, 2025. Except for the 6 - month maturity variety, other maturity yields increased, with long - term yields rising more [8][9]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar appreciated, and the price of gold showed internal and external differentiation. In the past week (20250707 - 20250713), the US dollar index rose 0.91%. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate increased. The external gold market rose, while the domestic gold price fell [10]. Group 4: Trade and Market Outlook - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on August 1 is considered a means to increase bargaining chips in trade negotiations. The final implementation or postponement of the tariff increase is uncertain. The US Commerce Secretary will meet with Chinese officials in early August to discuss trade issues [11]. - A - share investors' risk preference is expected to remain high. Trump's tariff threats do not involve China, which is beneficial for A - share investors' risk preference. The report continues to be optimistic about structural opportunities such as the second supply - side reform, rare earths, etc. In the bond market, interest - rate bond yields may continue to fluctuate narrowly at a low level, and gold in the commodity market may benefit from the uncertainty brought by tariff threats [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the refrigerant industry is experiencing a sustained boom, significantly boosting the company's performance. The company is expected to achieve a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [5][8] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will continue to grow due to the high demand for high-end fluorinated new materials and the implementation of the third-generation refrigerant quota scheme, which is expected to enhance profitability further [8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 27.55 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 14.42 to 29.00 yuan. The total share capital is approximately 2,699.75 million shares, and the circulating market value is 74.378 billion yuan [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97 to 2.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 136% to 155%. The second quarter is projected to show a net profit of 1.16 to 1.32 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 122% to 152% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44% to 63% [5][6] - The refrigerant sales volume for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 154,600 tons, with an average price of 39,372.45 yuan per ton, leading to a revenue of 6.087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.09% [6] Market Trends - The report indicates that the refrigerant market is entering a favorable cycle driven by quota systems and increasing downstream demand. The average prices for various refrigerants have shown significant increases, with R22, R32, R125, and R134a prices rising by -12%, 23%, 14%, and 22% respectively [6] - The non-refrigerant business also shows stable growth, with fluorochemical raw material sales volume increasing by 11.72% year-on-year, contributing to a revenue of 681 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.16% [7] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26.99 billion yuan, 30.05 billion yuan, and 34.20 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 10.3%, 11.3%, and 13.8% [8][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 4.407 billion yuan, 5.092 billion yuan, and 5.830 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 124.9%, 15.5%, and 14.5% respectively [8][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [4] Core Viewpoints - The light industry sector is experiencing rapid growth in demand for trendy toys, driven by Generation Z, with products like blind boxes tapping into deep emotional values. The integration of AI technologies is expected to enhance the light manufacturing sector, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and boosting domestic demand [2][3] - The export chain for light industry products such as thermos cups and office furniture is showing stable overseas demand, with tariff impacts expected to be gradually absorbed. Companies with overseas production capacity and supply chain resilience are recommended for attention [3] - The home goods sector is set to benefit from an additional 150 billion yuan in special government bonds for consumer upgrades, which is expected to stimulate demand and support economic growth [4] Summary by Sections Light Industry - The trendy toy sector is witnessing significant growth, with a sixfold increase in bookings for the Bubble Mart city park in June compared to the previous year, surpassing other entertainment venues in Beijing [2] - Companies to watch include Bubble Mart, Blokus, and Miniso [2] Export Chain - The light industry export chain is expected to recover as tariff policies become clearer, with a focus on companies like Jiangxin Home, Ninebot, and Jia Yi [3] Home Goods - The third batch of consumer upgrade funds will be released in July, with manufacturing PMI showing signs of improvement, indicating a potential recovery in home goods consumption [4][7] Textile and Apparel Industry - The demand for gold is projected to grow, with domestic jewelry companies expected to see sales and performance improvements in 2025. The outdoor economy is also boosting sales in sports apparel [8][9] - Companies to focus on include Anta, Li Ning, and Bosideng, which are expanding their market presence [10][11] Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to grow due to increased overseas production and enhanced core competitiveness, with companies like Huali Group and Weixing Co. recommended for investment [12][13]

Group 1: Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with domestic demand showing signs of improvement and export growth driven by emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East [4][6] - Domestic engineering machinery demand is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by a peak in equipment replacement and increased investment in infrastructure projects, with local government bond issuance rising by 84% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [6] - The export value of engineering machinery reached USD 5.152 billion in April 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with total exports from January to April amounting to USD 18.07 billion, up 9.01% year-on-year [6][8] Group 2: Semiconductor Equipment - The domestic semiconductor equipment industry is poised for expansion, with significant capital expenditure expected for 300mm wafer fabs in China, projected to exceed USD 100 billion from 2025 to 2027 [10][13] - The trend towards self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment is accelerating, with low domestic localization rates in critical equipment categories, indicating substantial room for import substitution [11][13] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies such as Zhongwei Company, Northern Huachuang, and Quick Intelligent [13][25] Group 3: Industrial Mother Machines - The machine tool industry is on an upward cycle due to ongoing domestic substitution and increasing demand for high-end machine tools, with government policies supporting tax incentives and talent development [14][16] - Short-term performance improvements are anticipated as the industry enters a renewal phase [16] Group 4: Traditional Energy Equipment - The traditional energy equipment sector is benefiting from low oil inventories in the U.S. and the upcoming peak consumption season, which is expected to support rising oil prices [17][19] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are influencing market dynamics [19] - Companies such as Nuwei Co., Xizhuang Co., and Jerry Co. are recommended for investment [19][25] Group 5: New Energy Equipment - The controlled nuclear fusion sector is witnessing increased capital expenditure and technological advancements, with a growing number of startups and active financing in the past five years [20][24] - Significant progress in nuclear fusion technology has been made, with multiple records achieved in plasma operation [24] - Investment opportunities include companies like Hezhuan Intelligent, Xizhuang Co., and Jingda Co. [24][25]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a mixed performance last week, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 1.52%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.75%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 2.34% [5][10] - The Hang Seng Large Cap Index decreased by 1.60%, while the Mid Cap Index rose by 1.93% and the Small Cap Index increased by 2.31% [5][10] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, the non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index at 50.7%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity with increases of 0.2 percentage points for the first two indices and 0.3 percentage points for the composite index compared to the previous month [6][9] - Experts noted that the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience and vitality in the first half of the year, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual growth targets [6][9] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on the high-tech manufacturing sector within the Hong Kong stock market due to the positive economic signals indicated by the PMI data [5][6] Market Data - As of July 4, the Hang Seng Index's current PE (TTM) was 10.41 times, approximately at the 55th percentile since January 1, 2007, while the PB was 1.13, at the 40th percentile [7][12] - The southbound capital inflow last week was 13.892 billion HKD, a decrease from the previous week's inflow of 14.489 billion HKD [7][14] - The top five net purchases by southbound funds included SMIC at 2.279 billion HKD, Tracker Fund of Hong Kong at 1.674 billion HKD, Meituan at 1.530 billion HKD, Innovent Biologics at 1.225 billion HKD, and China Construction Bank at 1.096 billion HKD [7][16] - The top five net sales included Alibaba at 6.998 billion HKD, Tencent at 2.015 billion HKD, Xiaomi at 1.274 billion HKD, CanSino Biologics at 0.641 billion HKD, and Pop Mart at 0.413 billion HKD [7][17]

Group 1 - The fundraising enthusiasm improved month-on-month, with a total fundraising scale of 1034.44 billion, an increase of 25.19% compared to the previous month. The top three types of funds raised were index funds at 402.72 billion (approximately 38.93%), bond funds at 260.23 billion, and mixed funds at 241.82 billion [1][14]. - The average subscription days for completed fundraising decreased by 16.67% month-on-month to 17.48 days. Among these, 17 funds completed fundraising within 5 days, while 102 funds took between 5 to 30 days, and 9 funds took more than 30 days [1][18]. Group 2 - The three largest funds raised in June were: Dongfanghong Yingfeng Stable Allocation 6-Month Holding A (FOF, 65.73 billion), Tianhong Zhongdai Investment Grade Corporate Credit Bond Selected Index A (Index Fund, 60.01 billion), and Jingguan Taifu Zhongdai Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Comprehensive A (Index Fund, 60.01 billion). These funds significantly contributed to the fundraising success of Dongfanghong Asset Management (89.28 billion), Tianhong Fund (73.13 billion), and Jingguan Taifu Fund (60.01 billion) [2][21]. - A total of 176 funds participated in the issuance in June, with 119 newly issued funds and 57 continuing funds. The top three types of newly issued funds were index funds (63), mixed funds (23), and bond funds (18) [5][12]. Group 3 - The number of companies participating in fund issuance decreased from 82 in May to 76 in June, with 73 being fund companies and 3 being securities or asset management companies. The highest number of issuances came from Fuguo Fund and Yifangda Fund, each with 8 funds [4]. - The total number of newly issued funds in June decreased by 4.03% month-on-month but increased by 65.28% year-on-year, slightly below the average level of the past three years [8][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the "reciprocal tariff" for 90 days has been postponed from July 9 to August 1, keeping investors' risk appetite at a high level. Amid the rising expectation of the second supply - side reform, corresponding investment opportunities are worth exploring. In the equity market, pay attention to industries with low capacity utilization; in the bond market, uncertainty may bring some benefits, but the downward space of interest - rate bonds is limited; for commodities, gold is expected to benefit from the increased risk - aversion sentiment and has short - term long - making opportunities [12]. 3. Summary by Related Information Stock Market - In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), U.S. stocks rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 1.62%, 1.72%, and 2.30% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index fell by 0.60%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.52% [2]. - Most A - share sectors or industries rose. The Wind All - A Index rose 1.22%. From a style perspective, in the Shanghai market, blue - chips rose and growth stocks fell; in the Shenzhen market, both blue - chips and growth stocks rose, and the North Securities 50 Index fell. Among 30 CITIC industries, 25 rose, led by steel, banking, building materials, and medicine with weekly gains of over 3.50% [3]. Bond Market - In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), the price of interest - rate bonds rose slightly, and the yield curve steepened. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell 0.29 BP to 1.6433%. Most maturity yields declined, with larger declines in maturities of 6 months and less [4]. - The capital price dropped significantly, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open - market operations. As of July 4, 2025, R007 was 1.4881%, down 43.20 BP from June 27, 2025; DR007 was 1.4222%, down 27.46 BP. The central bank net withdrew 1375.3 billion yuan in the past week [5]. - The bond - market leverage level decreased. The 7 - day capital cost is higher than the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase (5 - day average) decreased from 7.77 trillion yuan on June 27, 2025, to 7.60 trillion yuan on July 4, 2025 [6]. - U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward. As of July 4, 2025, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6 BP to 4.35%. Yields of all maturities increased, with larger increases in maturities of 7 years and less [7][8]. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Market - The U.S. dollar depreciated, and the price of gold rose. In the past week (20250630 - 20250706), the U.S. dollar index fell 0.28%. The price of London gold spot rose 1.84% to $3331.90 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.94% to $3332.50 per ounce. Domestic Shanghai gold also rose [9]. Policy and Events - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission may raise expectations for the second - round supply - side reform. The meeting mentioned governing low - price and disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Industries such as food manufacturing, chemical raw materials and products manufacturing have low capacity utilization [10]. - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the U.S. officially came into effect, which may increase the U.S. fiscal deficit. The act involves large - scale tax cuts, structural adjustment of fiscal expenditures, and raising the debt ceiling. The CBO estimated that it will add $3.25 trillion in deficits in the next 10 years [11].

证券投资基金研究报告/基金周报 报告日期：2025年07月07日 本期（2025.6.30-2025.7.4）上证指数上涨 1.40%，深证成指上涨 1.25%。申万一级行业涨多跌少，其中钢铁和建筑材料行业表现较好。 海外权益市场重要指数涨多跌少，国际黄金价格上涨。本期各类型基金 均上涨。主动投资股票基金较上期上涨 1.82%，主动投资混合基金上涨 1.25%，主动投资债券基金上涨 0.17%；QDII 基金较上期上涨 0.63%。 图 1、基金指数近一年收益率走势 数据来源：wind，上海证券基金评价研究中心； 起止时间：2024 年 7 月 5 日——2025 年 7 月 4 日 图 2、各类型基金本期收益率（%） 数据来源：wind，上海证券基金评价研究中心；数据截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日 注：主动投资股票基金、混合基金及债券基金平均收益率采用中国开放式主动管理基 金系列指数收益率；其他类型基金平均收益率采用样本基金收益率算术平均值 分析师：池云飞 执业证书编号：S0870521090001 电话：021-53686397 E-mail: chiyunfei@shzq.com 研究助理：汪雪凝 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: A-Share Industry Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses six factors—capital, valuation, sentiment, momentum, overbought/oversold, and profitability—to build a scoring system for industry evaluation[17] **Model Construction Process**: - **Capital Factor**: Based on industry net inflow rate of major funds - **Valuation Factor**: Uses the valuation percentile of the industry over the past year - **Sentiment Factor**: Derived from the proportion of rising constituent stocks - **Momentum Factor**: Based on MACD indicator - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: Uses RSI indicator - **Profitability Factor**: Based on the consensus forecast EPS percentile of the industry over the past year[17] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a comprehensive scoring system to assess industry rotation trends[17] - **Model Name**: Consensus Stock Selection Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies high-growth industries and selects stocks with high similarity between high-frequency capital flow trends and stock price trends[20] **Model Construction Process**: - Filters high-growth industries at the Shenwan secondary industry level based on the past 30-day performance - Calculates momentum, valuation, and frequency of price increases for stocks within these industries - Uses high-frequency minute-level capital flow data to compute changes in inflow/outflow for each stock - Selects stocks with the highest similarity between capital flow trends and price trends within the top-performing secondary industries[20] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks with strong capital flow and price trend alignment[20] --- Model Backtesting Results - **A-Share Industry Rotation Model**: - **Top Scoring Industries**: Comprehensive (+10), Non-ferrous Metals (+10), Electronics (+7)[18][19] - **Low Scoring Industries**: Banking (-15), Petrochemicals (-9), Transportation (-8)[19] - **Consensus Stock Selection Model**: - **Selected Industries**: Communication Equipment, Ground Armament II, Components[21] - **Selected Stocks**: - Communication Equipment: New Yisheng, Move Communication, Feiling Kesi, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Meixin Technology - Ground Armament II: Great Wall Military Industry, Optical Shares, Inner Mongolia First Machine, Sweet Qin Equipment, Ganfa Technology - Components: Jingwang Electronics, Deep South Circuit, Fangbang Shares, Zhongjing Electronics, Shenghong Technology[21] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Capital Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures industry net inflow rate of major funds[17] **Construction Process**: Aggregates daily net inflow data for transactions exceeding 10,000 shares or 200,000 yuan[12] **Evaluation**: Reflects the strength of capital flow within industries[17] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses industry valuation percentile over the past year[17] **Construction Process**: Calculates the relative valuation position of the industry within a one-year window[17] **Evaluation**: Indicates whether an industry is undervalued or overvalued[17] - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on the proportion of rising constituent stocks[17] **Construction Process**: Computes the percentage of stocks within the industry that have increased in price[17] **Evaluation**: Captures market sentiment towards the industry[17] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses MACD indicator to measure price trends[17] **Construction Process**: Applies MACD calculations to industry-level data[17] **Evaluation**: Identifies industries with strong upward or downward trends[17] - **Factor Name**: Overbought/Oversold Factor **Construction Idea**: Uses RSI indicator to assess market conditions[17] **Construction Process**: Calculates RSI values for industries to determine overbought or oversold conditions[17] **Evaluation**: Helps identify potential reversals in industry trends[17] - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor **Construction Idea**: Based on consensus forecast EPS percentile over the past year[17] **Construction Process**: Aggregates EPS forecasts and calculates relative percentile rankings[17] **Evaluation**: Reflects the earnings potential of industries[17] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Capital Factor**: Comprehensive (++), Non-ferrous Metals (++), Electronics (++), Banking (---), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Valuation Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (++), Electronics (+), Banking (-), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Sentiment Factor**: Comprehensive (-), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+++), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Momentum Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Overbought/Oversold Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+), Banking (--), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19] - **Profitability Factor**: Comprehensive (+++), Non-ferrous Metals (+++), Electronics (+++), Banking (---), Petrochemicals (---), Transportation (---)[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The release of the "Measures" on July 1, 2025, by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission aims to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs through 16 specific initiatives [2][3] - The focus is on enhancing support for innovative drug research and development, facilitating their inclusion in basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance directories, and improving clinical application and payment capabilities [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in the approval of Class 1 innovative drugs, with 48 approved in 2024, which is more than five times the number in 2018 [4] - The time taken for new drugs to be included in the medical insurance directory has decreased from approximately five years to about one year, with around 80% of innovative drugs being included within two years of market launch [4] Summary by Sections Policy Support - The "Measures" provide a framework for utilizing medical insurance data to support innovative drug research, focusing on real innovation and differentiated innovation [3] - The measures include establishing a commercial health insurance directory for innovative drugs and exploring the collaborative development of basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance [3] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the average reduction in prices for simplified renewal drugs was only 1.2% in 2024, with nearly 80% renewing at original prices [4] - The commercial health insurance market has seen rapid growth, with premium income reaching 977.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group as potential investment opportunities in the innovative drug sector [9]