Key Points - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery, with supply growth slowing and a replenishment cycle beginning. The government continues to strengthen policy guidance, and a new round of supply-side reforms is on the horizon. Focus on sectors such as refrigerants, potash fertilizers, organic silicon, and phosphorus chemicals, which are on an upward trend [5][10][20]. - Emerging demand growth opportunities in new materials are noteworthy. For lithium battery materials, the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization is beneficial for related materials. In photolithography, strong downstream semiconductor demand is driving the need for photolithography materials, with accelerated domestic substitution [5][10][82]. - The refrigerant sector is seeing a supply contraction alongside demand release, leading to a sustained uptrend in the third-generation refrigerants. Key companies to watch include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [5][41]. - The potash fertilizer market is recovering due to production cuts by major players, with global demand expected to grow. Key companies include Yara International and Salt Lake Co. [5][47][55]. - The organic silicon industry has passed its peak expansion phase, with profitability expected to recover as the industry moves towards a supply-demand balance. Companies to focus on include Dongyue Silicon Material, Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [5][56]. - The phosphorus chemical sector remains strong, with high prices supported by raw material costs and growing demand from the energy storage market. Companies to watch include Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, Chuanheng Co., and Batian Co. [5][66][75]. - The industrial gas market is growing, with domestic production increasing. Key players include Qiaoyuan Co. [5][76]. - The solid-state battery industry is on the verge of industrialization, with significant advancements expected in the coming years. Companies to focus on include Dangsheng Technology [5][82]. - The photolithography market is expanding due to strong demand from the semiconductor industry, with domestic companies like Tongcheng New Materials and Jingrui Electric Materials leading the way [5][84].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Views - The automotive sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.49%, with the auto parts sub-sector performing the best at +3.55% [3] - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale vehicle replacement policy in 2026, providing subsidies for scrapping and replacing vehicles, which is expected to stimulate demand [5] - In November, China's automotive market share reached 40% of global sales, indicating a strong position in the international market [6] Summary by Sections Market Summary - The automotive sector's weekly performance was +1.49%, ranking 5th among 31 primary industries [3] - The average daily wholesale volume of domestic passenger cars was 118,900 units, down 13% year-on-year, while the average daily retail volume was 89,800 units, down 12% year-on-year [4] Policy and Regulation - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a policy to support vehicle scrapping and replacement, offering subsidies of up to 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles [5] - The policy aims to boost the automotive market and encourage consumers to upgrade their vehicles [5] Strategic Investments - China FAW Group invested approximately 3.744 billion yuan in Leap Motor, becoming a significant strategic shareholder, which is expected to enhance both companies' competitive edge in the global market [7] - The collaboration aims to leverage Leap Motor's technology and FAW's international network for better market penetration [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in intelligent vehicle technology, those with potential overseas sales, and parts manufacturers benefiting from domestic substitution effects [9] - Specific companies recommended include BAIC Blue Valley for complete vehicles and several firms for auto parts [11]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela has escalated, which has a limited overall impact on the capital market but a significant impact on some commodities [14][15] - In the domestic equity market, the overall trend of A-shares is less likely to be affected, but there may be impacts on some structural sectors or industries. Investment opportunities in sectors such as military, aerospace, satellites, precious metals, new energy, photovoltaics, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence are recommended [15] - In the domestic bond market, bonds may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield above 1.80% has allocation value [15] - In the commodities market, the prices of precious metals such as gold may benefit from the escalation of geopolitical risks and are expected to resume their upward trend. If US oil companies repair Venezuela's oil infrastructure, oil supply may increase, and oil prices may face pressure [16] Group 3: Market Performance Summary Stock Market - In the past week (20251229 - 20260104), the three major US stock indexes declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by -1.52%, -1.03%, and -0.67% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by 5.11%, and the Hang Seng Index changed by 2.01% [5] - A-share sectors had both gains and losses. The wind all-A index changed by 0.61%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro-cap stocks changed by -0.90%, -0.59%, 0.09%, -0.13%, -0.10%, and 0.46% respectively. In terms of sector styles, both blue-chip and growth stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, and the North Securities 50 Index changed by -1.55%. In terms of industries, 13 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, and the leading sectors were comprehensive finance, petroleum and petrochemicals, and national defense and military industry, with a weekly increase of more than 3.0% [6][7] Bond Market - In the past week, most maturity varieties of China's Treasury bonds saw an increase in yields. The 10-year Treasury bond futures main contract declined by 0.41% compared to December 26, 2025. The yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond increased by 0.51 BP to 1.8427%. Except for the 3-month maturity variety, the yields of other maturity varieties increased [8] - The US Treasury bond yields of long-term varieties increased. As of January 2, 2026, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield changed by 5 BP to 4.19% compared to December 26, 2025. The yields of varieties with a maturity of 3 years and above increased [10][11] Currency Market - The US dollar strengthened, but the RMB still appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index increased by 0.43%. The US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by 0.49%, 0.35%, and 0.24% respectively. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.49% to 6.9706 as of January 2, 2026, and the US dollar against the onshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.28% to 6.9890 as of December 31, 2025 [12] Commodity Market - Gold prices declined. The spot price of London gold fell by 2.85% to $4352.95 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price fell by 5.02% to $4317.80 per ounce. Domestic gold prices also declined, with Shanghai gold spot falling by 3.19% to 974.9 yuan per gram and futures falling by 4.07% to 971.74 yuan per gram [13] Capital Market - The capital price declined. As of January 4, 2026, R007 was 1.4525%, a decrease of 7.39 BP compared to December 26, 2025; DR007 was 1.4286%, a decrease of 9.51 BP compared to December 26, 2025, and the spread between the two widened. The central bank's open market operations had a net withdrawal of 9024 billion yuan in the past week [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the retail industry, indicating a stable outlook for the sector in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care industry is transitioning from "penetration expansion" to "quality upgrade," with a focus on "self-care essentials, domestic brand substitution, technological advantages, and channel iteration" as the four main lines of investment [3]. - Lin Qingxuan, a domestic high-end skincare brand, successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 30, 2025, with a strong market debut, reflecting the ongoing trend of new consumption [4]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the潮玩谷子 (trendy toy) industry, driven by Gen Z consumers, and emphasizes the importance of emotional value in products [10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, the A-share SW retail industry index fell by 1.63%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.13%, indicating a challenging environment for the retail sector [3]. Lin Qingxuan's Performance - Lin Qingxuan reported a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a 98.3% year-on-year increase, and achieved a net profit of 182 million yuan, marking a 109.9% increase compared to the previous year [4]. - The company's gross margin reached 82.3% in the first half of 2025, with a significant reduction in sales expense ratio from 73.64% in 2022 to 55.2% [4]. - The core product, Camellia Oil, has sold over 45 million bottles since its launch, contributing to the brand's strong market position [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as 毛戈平, 上美股份, 珀莱雅, 若羽臣, 水羊股份, 青木科技, 润本股份, 登康口腔, and 百亚股份 within the beauty and personal care sector [4][14]. - For the潮玩谷子 industry, recommended companies include 泡泡玛特, 布鲁可, TOPTOY, and 乐自天成 [14]. - In the gold and jewelry sector,关注老铺黄金, 潮宏基, and 曼卡龙 are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [14]. - The sports and outdoor segment suggests关注安踏体育, 李宁, 361度, and 波司登 as key players to watch [14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a slight decline of -0.10% in the past week, with the automotive services sub-sector performing the best at +3.73% [5] - In November, the retail sales of passenger vehicles decreased by 7% year-on-year, while Tesla launched a budget version of Model 3 in Europe [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved two L3 level autonomous driving models, indicating advancements in smart vehicle technology [6] - China FAW plans to mass-produce solid-state batteries by 2027, which will be used in high-end Red Flag models [6] - The automotive market is currently adjusting due to the expiration of several consumer stimulus policies, with a projected retail market of approximately 2.3 million units in December [6] - The EU has proposed to relax the 2035 ban on new fuel vehicle sales, allowing for a 90% reduction in emissions compared to 2021 levels [7] Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector's performance was ranked 21st among 31 first-level industries, with notable companies like Zhejiang Shibao and Weidi Co. showing significant gains [5] - The overall market sentiment reflects a mixed performance, with some companies experiencing substantial growth while others faced declines [5] Sales Data - From December 1 to 14, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 764,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 24% [6] - The wholesale volume for the same period was 734,000 units, down 31% year-on-year [6] - The new energy vehicle market showed resilience with retail sales of 476,000 units, only a 4% decline year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in smart vehicle technology and those with potential for overseas sales [7] - Consider component manufacturers that can benefit from domestic substitution effects [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is "Hold" [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant breakthroughs in the domestic brain-computer interface (BCI) technology, indicating an acceleration in industry development and international recognition [5]. - The report emphasizes the transition of invasive brain-computer interfaces from laboratory settings to market approval processes, suggesting a rapid expansion of application scenarios [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent advancements in invasive brain-computer interface technology, including the first domestic medical device entering the FDA's breakthrough therapy pathway, which enhances the international recognition of China's BCI technology [5]. - It mentions successful clinical trials using high-throughput wireless invasive BCI systems, enabling patients with high-level paralysis to control smart wheelchairs and robotic dogs through brain signals, achieving a 15%-20% improvement in brain control performance [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Innovation Medical, Aipeng Medical, and Sanbo Brain Science, as they are positioned to benefit from the advancements in the BCI sector [6].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The A-share market is in a high-level oscillation, and the bond market has narrow fluctuations. The A-share market may continue to oscillate at a high level in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to investment opportunities in directions such as satellites, chemicals, new energy, photovoltaics, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence. The bond market may continue to have narrow fluctuations, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield above 1.80% has allocation value. The gold price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation trend [3][12]. Group 3: Summary of Market Performance Stock Market - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq up 0.48%, the S&P 500 up 0.10%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down -0.67%. The Nasdaq China Technology Index fell -1.96%. The Hang Seng Index dropped -1.10% [3]. - Most A-share sectors declined, with the Wind All A Index down -0.15%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 decreased by -0.82%, -0.28%, and -0.56% respectively, while the CSI 2000 and Wind Micro-cap stocks increased by 0.30% and 3.12% respectively. In terms of sector style, Shanghai blue-chips rose while growth stocks fell, and Shenzhen blue-chips and growth stocks both declined. The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by -0.13%. In terms of industry performance, 20 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, with the leading sectors being commerce and retail and catering and tourism, with a weekly increase of more than 4.0%. ETFs related to tourism, satellites, aerospace, and chemicals also performed well, with a weekly increase of over 4.0% [4][5]. Bond Market - China's Treasury bond yields declined slightly. The 10-year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.15% compared to December 12, 2025. The yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond decreased by 0.88 BP to 1.8308%. Yields of all maturity varieties decreased [6]. - U.S. Treasury bond yields mostly declined, and the yield curve became flatter. As of December 19, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased by -3 BP to 4.16%. Only the 6-month maturity yield increased, while the rest decreased [8][9]. Currency Market - The U.S. dollar strengthened, and the RMB appreciated against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.32%. The U.S. dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by 0.25%, -0.07%, and 1.16% respectively. The U.S. dollar against the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates decreased by 0.28% and 0.20% respectively [10]. Commodity Market - Gold and silver prices generally rose. London gold spot prices fell 0.22% to $4337.60 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures prices rose 1.19% to $4354.00 per ounce. Domestic gold prices rose, with Shanghai gold spot up 1.17% to 975.51 yuan per gram and futures up 1.10% to 977.88 yuan per gram. London silver spot prices rose 1.98% to $65.79 per ounce; COMEX silver futures prices rose 9.39% to $66.79 per ounce. Domestic silver prices showed term differentiation, with Shanghai silver spot up 3.08% to 15359 yuan per kilogram and futures down 4.40% to 14811 yuan per kilogram [11]. Group 4: Other Market Conditions - Capital prices showed mixed trends. As of December 19, 2025, R007 rose 0.73 BP to 1.5148%, and DR007 decreased 2.78 BP to 1.4413%, with the spread between the two widening. The central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 190 billion yuan [7].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: December 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Hongbing [1] - SAC Number: S0870523060002 [1] - Related Reports: "Analysis of the Allocation Value of Securities ETF", "Analysis of the Allocation Value of Bank ETF", "November Allocation Strategy for Chinese Medicine ETF" [2] Group 2: Core Views - The Golden Stocks ETF (517520.SH) managed by Yongying Fund tracks the CSI Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index (931238.CSI), with the index abbreviation SSH Gold Stocks [3]. - From September 11 to December 12, 2025, the best convergent stock of the Golden Stocks ETF is Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), selected by considering the deviation of constituent stocks from the gold stock index and research coverage [3]. - Chifeng Gold's bottom - valuation in 2024 based on the expected EPS of 2024 was close to 16 times PE. Based on 16 times PE, from 2024 to 2025 (up to December 12, 2025), most of the stock price fluctuations of Chifeng Gold did not exceed the value range defined by the fundamental value of T - 1 year and the expected fundamental value of T + 2 year. As of December 12, 2025, the expected per - share fundamental values of Chifeng Gold from 2025 to 2027 were 26.02, 33.01, and 38.65 yuan respectively, and the closing price was 31.2 yuan per share, still lower than the per - share fundamental value in 2026 [3]. - According to the position of Chifeng Gold's closing price in the expected per - share fundamental value range from 2025 to 2027, the closing position on December 12, 2025 was 58.97% [3]. - From October to December 12, 2025, the Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio of the Golden Stocks ETF based on the dynamic position allocation of Chifeng Gold were better than those of the buy - and - hold strategy. The allocation strategy achieved an end - of - period return of 4.99% with a maximum drawdown of 5.52%, while the buy - and - hold strategy of the Golden Stocks ETF achieved an end - of - period return of - 0.1% with a maximum drawdown of 14.93% [4][11] Group 3: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Golden Stocks ETF Allocation Value Analysis - The Golden Stocks ETF tracks the CSI Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index, and the best convergent stock in the recent 3 months is Chifeng Gold [3][10]. - Chifeng Gold's bottom - valuation in 2024 was 16 times PE, and its stock price fluctuations from 2024 - 2025 (up to December 12, 2025) mostly stayed within the fundamental value range. The expected per - share fundamental values from 2025 - 2027 were 26.02, 33.01, and 38.65 yuan respectively, with a closing price of 31.2 yuan per share on December 12, 2025 [3][10]. - The closing position on December 12, 2025 was 58.97% based on the fundamental value range [3][11]. - From October to December 12, 2025, the dynamic position allocation strategy based on Chifeng Gold outperformed the buy - and - hold strategy in terms of Sharpe ratio and return - drawdown ratio, achieving an end - of - period return of 4.99% with a maximum drawdown of 5.52%, while the buy - and - hold strategy had an end - of - period return of - 0.1% and a maximum drawdown of 14.93% [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing rapid advancements in AI models, with significant updates from major players like OpenAI and Zhiyuan, indicating a strong trend towards commercialization of AI applications [3][4] - The recent performance of the computer index has lagged behind major indices, suggesting a need for cautious optimism in the short term [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - In the past week (December 8-12), the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.74%. The computer index dropped by 1.14%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 0.80 percentage points and the ChiNext by 3.88 percentage points [2] Weekly Insights - OpenAI launched the new GPT-5.2 model, enhancing capabilities in information retrieval, writing, translation, and programming tasks, with improved performance in enterprise applications [3] - Zhiyuan released the GLM-4.6V series of multimodal models, significantly increasing context window size and integrating tool invocation capabilities into visual models [3] AI Application Acceleration - Google introduced the Gemini Deep Research AI agent, marking a significant step towards industrial application of AI with enhanced web search capabilities [4] - Zhiyuan also launched the AutoGLM model, which can operate mobile applications, indicating a shift towards more interactive AI agents [4] - Alibaba restructured its business to focus on creating a super app, aiming to become a primary AI assistant across various platforms [4] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include those in computing power such as Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Zhongke Shuguang, as well as AI application firms like Kingsoft Office and iFlytek [8]

Economic Performance - In November, the industrial production growth rate was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) fell by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with a deeper decline compared to the previous period[11] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November reached 43,898 billion yuan, growing by 1.3%, which is a decrease of approximately 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[11] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points in growth rate[18] - Infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point[18] - Real estate development investment from January to November was 78,591 billion yuan, down 15.9%, with the decline widening by 1.2 percentage points[19] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 2.5%, indicating that the decline in automobile consumption negatively impacted overall consumer performance[25] - The growth rate of retail sales in urban areas was 1.0%, while rural areas saw a growth of 2.8%[21] - Consumption of furniture, building materials, and jewelry saw significant declines, with automobile consumption experiencing a deepening drop[22] Policy Outlook - The government aims to maintain stable economic growth while enhancing quality and efficiency, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[28] - Policies will include increasing central budget investment and implementing measures to stabilize investment and consumption[28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in China-U.S. policies[29]