Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the automotive industry, emphasizing the synergy between policies, exports, and smart technology, which is reshaping the market landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth Logic - The automotive industry is projected to see a total sales volume of over 34 million units in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 8% [8]. - In the first ten months of 2025, cumulative sales reached 27.65 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.29% [8][7]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 46.70% in the same period, with cumulative sales of 12.91 million units, up 32.42% year-on-year [21][4]. - The export growth rate for NEVs was significantly higher at 87.57%, compared to domestic demand growth of 25.71% [21][4]. Group 2: Export Dynamics - In the first ten months of 2025, China's automotive exports reached 5.58 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.05%, with exports accounting for 20.19% of total sales [11][10]. - The top ten exporting companies included Chery and BYD, with Chery exporting 1.063 million units, a 12.9% increase, and BYD's exports surging by 140% to 789,000 units [11][10]. Group 3: Domestic Demand - Domestic sales in the first ten months of 2025 totaled 22.06 million units, reflecting an 11.61% year-on-year increase [15][14]. - The "trade-in" policy has been enhanced to stimulate domestic demand, expanding the scope of vehicle scrappage and increasing subsidy standards [15][14]. Group 4: Self-owned Brands - The market share of domestic brands in passenger vehicles rose to 69.48% in the first ten months of 2025, up from 38.43% in 2022, with a growth rate of 21.31% [19][18]. - The overall growth rate for passenger vehicles was 12.80%, indicating a strong performance from domestic brands [19][18]. Group 5: Smart Technology and Parts - The smart driving market in China is expected to approach 450 billion yuan by 2025, with the penetration rate of L2-level assisted driving exceeding 50% [33][31]. - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic parts replacement, driven by supportive national policies and expanding market scales, particularly in the NEV sector [38][34]. - The synergy between smart connected vehicles and humanoid robots is noted, with both industries sharing over 50% of supply chain resources, which could significantly reduce production costs for robots [41][39]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the complete vehicle sector include BAIC Blue Valley, GAC Group, and Great Wall Motors [47]. - In the parts sector, companies such as Bertley, Yinlun, and Longsheng Technology are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [47]. - For small-cap stocks, Baihehua is suggested as a promising investment [47].

证券研究报告 2025年12月4日 行业：宏观 承前启后，"质"创未来 ——2026年度宏观展望 分析师：张河生 SAC编号：S0870523100004 目录 SECTION 2 一、内需与地产疲弱，出口有韧性 二、融资需求与物价水平走弱，2026年仍需稳增长 三、从量化、具化指标看十五五规划的可执行性与效果 四、美联储10月如期降息 五、风险提示 摘要 ◆ 核心观点 ◆ 风险提示 ◆ 居民收入、就业预期未改善，经济内生需求弱；稳增长政策低于预期等；中日地缘局势升级； 3 ◆ 内需与地产疲弱，出口有韧性，融资需求与物价水平走弱，2026年仍需稳增长。固定资产投资增速三季度加速下滑 ，消费二、三季度走弱，外贸保持较强韧性，对经济维持正贡献。地产形势走弱，融资需求依旧不佳，单位活期化 意愿提升，通缩风险依然存在。 ◆ 从量化、具化指标看十五五规划的可执行性与效果。中国经济当前存在的一些问题，十五五规划对问题以及解决方 案有相应的描述。居民消费率明显提高，我们认为中国居民消费占比未来5年提升15-20%，那么每年提升3-4%可完 成目标；关于就业的考核，我们认为需重视服务业对就业的重要性。 ◆ 美国通胀未达目标， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The computer industry is experiencing a significant demand for computing power driven by ongoing AI transformations, with major companies like Alibaba showing strong growth in AI-related revenues [3][4] - The report highlights the performance of the computer sector, which outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.68 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 1.44 percentage points during the past week [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, the ChiNext Index increased by 4.54%, and the CSI 300 Index gained 1.64% during the week from November 24 to November 28, while the computer sector index rose by 3.08% [2] Weekly Insights - Alibaba's Q3 report indicated a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with AI and cloud services showing robust growth [3] - The cloud intelligence group's revenue reached 39.82 billion yuan, up 34% year-on-year, and AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [3] - Alibaba's market share in China's AI cloud market reached 35.8%, surpassing the combined share of its next three competitors [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include: - Computing Power: Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Huafeng Technology, Shenling Environment, Yingweike, Oulutong, and Zhongheng Electric [5] - AIDC: Kehua Data, Yunsai Zhili, Hongxin Electronics, Runjian Shares, Runze Technology, and Dataport [5] - AI Applications: Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, Foxit Software, Wankong Technology, Dingjie Zhizhi, Hand Information, Nengke Technology, and Zhuoyi Information [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the performance improvement of Google's seventh-generation TPU, which is designed to handle various tasks from large model training to real-time chatbot operations. The TPU can connect up to 9,216 chips in a single cluster, eliminating data bottlenecks in complex models [6][8] - The report suggests that despite the current reliance on NVIDIA's GPUs for most large language models and AI computations, Google's TPU may offer advantages in cost, performance, and energy efficiency [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors such as PCB, ODM, AIOT, and AIDC for investment opportunities during market corrections [6] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points with a weekly increase of +1.4%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,984.08 points with a weekly increase of +3.56%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3,052.59 points with a weekly increase of +4.54%. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,526.66 points with a weekly increase of +1.64%. The AI Index closed at 2,158.89 points with a weekly increase of +5.89% [4] Technology Industry Viewpoints - The report discusses the launch of Google's TPU "Ironwood," which is tailored for demanding workloads and aims to compete with AWS and Azure by making cloud services cheaper, faster, and more flexible [6] - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the PCB sector driven by AI server shipments, recommending companies such as Shenghong Technology, Dongshan Precision, and Huadian [6][8] - It also highlights the growth in demand for PCB equipment and materials, suggesting companies like Xinqi Microelectronics and Tiancheng Technology for investment [8]

Investment Summary - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a commercialization harvest period, with significant performance improvements in the first three quarters of 2025 [5] - The medical device bidding market shows a substantial growth trend, with a 62.75% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [22] - The rise of health-conscious consumer behavior is driving rapid market growth and innovation in health consumption [5] - Supportive policies from the government are catalyzing high-quality development in the pharmaceutical industry [5] Sector Performance Review - As of November 27, 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a 16.56% increase since the beginning of the year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.81 percentage points [8] - The chemical pharmaceutical sub-sector led the gains with a 33.67% increase, while the medical services and biological products sectors also performed well [8][12] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - Policy support is enhancing the entire chain of high-quality development, with significant improvements in the approval process for innovative drugs [15] - The number of approved innovative drugs has surged, with 48 new first-class innovative drugs approved in 2024, a fivefold increase compared to 2018 [15] - The domestic innovative drug market is expanding rapidly, with a projected market size of 1 trillion yuan by 2035 [21] Medical Insurance Market - The commercial insurance system is gradually improving, with multi-channel payment mechanisms being explored to meet public demand [5] - The aging population is increasing demand in chronic disease and rehabilitation sectors, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above in China by 2024 [5] Medical Devices - The medical device bidding market is recovering, with a 29.8% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2025 [22] - The overall revenue for the medical device sector in Q3 2025 was 604.49 billion yuan, showing a positive growth trend [22] Brain-Computer Interface - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to see significant growth, with potential market sizes ranging from 400 to 1450 billion USD by 2030-2040 [23] - National and local policies are promoting innovation in the brain-computer interface sector, with plans to establish several influential enterprises by 2030 [23][25] AI in Healthcare - The AI+ healthcare market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size of 315.8 billion yuan by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 43% [27] - The AI pharmaceutical sector is also growing, with a market size increase from 0.7 million yuan in 2019 to 4.1 million yuan in 2023 [31] Traditional Chinese Medicine - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is experiencing revitalization through new consumption patterns, with a significant increase in the number of TCM clinics across the country [33] - The market for chronic disease management is expanding, with a projected size of 4 trillion yuan by 2024 [33] New Health Consumption - Policies promoting health consumption are driving rapid growth in the health consumption sector, with the total revenue of China's health industry reaching 9 trillion yuan in 2024 [34] - The health consumption market is characterized by rapid growth and continuous innovation in business models [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past week (20251117 - 20251123), major stock indices in the US and Hong Kong, as well as A - shares in China, all declined. The Fed may turn dovish again, and there are investment opportunities in domestic equity markets and potential for gold prices to remain strong [2][3][15]. - The A - share market is likely to strengthen in subsequent oscillations, and attention can be paid to investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, coal, steel, chemical, chip, computing power, and artificial intelligence. The bond market will likely continue to oscillate within a narrow range, and gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation [16]. 3. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - US stock indices and the Hang Seng Index declined. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by - 2.74%, - 1.95%, and - 1.91% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changed by - 6.06%. The Hang Seng Index changed by - 5.09% [2]. - A - shares tumbled across the board. The wind All - A Index changed by - 5.13%, and various indices such as CSI A100, CSI 300, etc., also declined [3]. - Blue - chip and growth sectors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both dropped. The Shanghai Composite 50 and STAR Market 50 in Shanghai declined, and the Shenzhen Component 100 and ChiNext Index in Shenzhen also fell. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index changed by - 9.04% [4]. - Among industries, banking, consumer goods, etc., had relatively small declines, and bond - related ETFs led the gains. All 30 CITIC industries fell, with banking, food and beverage, media, and home appliances having declines of less than 2.0% [5]. Bond Market Performance - The national debt market fluctuated within a narrow range. The 10 - year national debt futures main contract rose 0.01% compared to November 14, 2025, and the yield of the 10 - year active national debt bond increased by 0.26 BP [6]. - Fund prices mainly decreased, and the central bank made a net injection in open - market operations. As of November 21, 2025, R007 increased by 0.07 BP, and DR007 decreased by 2.65 BP. The central bank made a net injection of 554 billion yuan [7]. - The bond market leverage level decreased. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 74.4 trillion yuan on November 14, 2025, to 72.9 trillion yuan on November 21, 2025 [9]. - US Treasury yields declined, and the yield curve shifted downward overall. As of November 21, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield changed by - 8 BP to 4.06% [10]. Exchange Rate and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar strengthened, and the RMB depreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index rose 0.87%, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen all increased. The exchange rates of the US dollar against the offshore and on - shore RMB also rose [11]. - Gold prices showed a split between the international and domestic markets. The London gold spot price rose 0.04%, while the domestic Shanghai gold spot and futures prices fell by 2.49% and 2.79% respectively [12]. US Economic Data and Fed Expectations - In September, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US exceeded expectations, but the number of unemployed people increased significantly. The unemployment rate reached 4.4%, rising for the fourth consecutive month [13]. - The latest futures data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is again higher than 50%. Due to the delayed release of non - farm data, the Fed's December decision will be based on September data [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [9] Core Views - The basic chemical index experienced a decline of 7.47% over the past week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.70 percentage points, ranking 29th among all sectors [2][15] - Key sub-industries with notable performance include rubber additives (3.34%) and potassium fertilizer (-3.30%) [2][16] - The report highlights the upward trend in organic silicon and MDI prices, with organic silicon DMC prices in East China reaching 13,200 CNY/ton, a 5.60% increase week-on-week and a 20.00% increase for the month [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The basic chemical index's performance was -7.47%, while the CSI 300 index was -3.77%, indicating a significant underperformance [2][15] - The top-performing stocks in the basic chemical sector included Guofeng New Materials (33.33%) and Huarong Chemical (27.82%) [19][23] Chemical Price Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases were hydrochloric acid (Jiangsu) (33.33%), international sulfur (13.41%), and lithium carbonate (battery grade) (7.59%) [3][24] - Conversely, the top five products with the largest price declines included liquid chlorine (-98.00%) and hydrochloric acid (Shandong) (-41.67%) [3][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key areas: 1. Refrigerant sector, with companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. 2. Chemical fiber sector, recommending Huafeng Chemical and Xin Fengming 3. Quality stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng 4. Tire sector, with attention to Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire 5. Agricultural chemicals, recommending Yara International and Salt Lake Shares 6. Quality growth stocks like Blue Sky Technology and Shengquan Group [9][45]

Group 1: Strategic Importance of New Quality Productivity - Technological innovation is the main battlefield for global competition, with a focus on developing new quality productivity tailored to local conditions[2] - The goal is to leverage breakthroughs in cutting-edge technologies like AI and quantum science to elevate China's modern industrial system towards high-end, intelligent, and green development[2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a critical period for transitioning new quality productivity from cultivation to growth, driven by AI and quantum technologies[3] Group 2: Transformation and Upgrading of Traditional Industries - The integration of industrial AI and data elements is expected to enhance the deep fusion of manufacturing capabilities and data management ecosystems[2] - By 2024, the digital R&D design tool penetration rate among key industrial enterprises in China reached 82%, with over 340 influential industrial internet platforms established[14] - A case study of Tianjin TBEA shows a 25% increase in production efficiency and a 16% reduction in unit costs through digital factory modeling[15] Group 3: Growth of Emerging Industries - The AI computing center market in China reached 87.9 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth to approximately 101.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 90%[16] - The AI chip market is expected to grow from 1.41 trillion yuan in 2024 to 1.53 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating strong growth potential[16] - Quantum computing is anticipated to achieve key breakthroughs during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a global total of 329 quantum computing companies as of July 2024[18] Group 4: Challenges and Countermeasures - China's basic research funding accounted for only 6.91% of total R&D expenditure in 2024, significantly lower than the 12%-23% range in developed countries[21] - The disconnect between technological innovation and the real needs of the economy is a critical challenge, with strategic emerging industries contributing only about 13% to GDP[23] - Ethical and security risks associated with emerging technologies, such as AI and quantum computing, pose significant challenges to national security and social stability[25]

Group 1 - The report focuses on the November allocation strategy for the Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF (560080.SH), which tracks the CSI Traditional Chinese Medicine Index (930641.CSI) that selects listed companies involved in the production and sales of traditional Chinese medicine [3][8] - The best-performing stock in the ETF during the period from May 1, 2025, to October 31, 2025, is Lingrui Pharmaceutical (600285.SH), chosen based on the deviation of component stocks from the index and research coverage [3][8] - Lingrui Pharmaceutical's valuation at market bottoms in January 2024 and September 2024 was close to a 15x PE ratio based on EPS estimates for 2023 and 2024, respectively [3][8] Group 2 - Based on a 15x PE ratio, Lingrui Pharmaceutical's stock price fluctuations have not exceeded the value range defined by the T-1 year and T+2 year expected fundamental values, where T year fundamental value is calculated as T year expected EPS (or actual EPS if disclosed) multiplied by 15 [9] - As of November 14, 2025, the expected fundamental values per share for Lingrui Pharmaceutical from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 22.09, 25.13, and 28.33 CNY, with a closing price of 22.68 CNY per share, indicating a rational investment sentiment in the market [9] - The closing position for Lingrui Pharmaceutical on November 14, 2025, was 90.48% based on its position within the expected fundamental value range [9] Group 3 - From October 9, 2025, to November 14, 2025, the dynamic allocation strategy for the Traditional Chinese Medicine ETF based on Lingrui Pharmaceutical outperformed the buy-and-hold strategy, achieving a terminal return of 5.82% with a maximum drawdown of 2.54%, compared to a 5.96% return and a 3% maximum drawdown for the buy-and-hold strategy [4][9]

Economic Performance - In October, the industrial production growth rate decreased to 4.9%, down from 6.5% in September[11] - Fixed asset investment from January to October fell by 1.7%, with private investment down by 4.5%[11][18] - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 14.7% year-on-year, worsening by 0.8 percentage points[19] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, but the growth rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points[18][26] - Infrastructure investment turned negative with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%[18][26] - Excluding real estate, project investment increased by 1.7% year-on-year[18][26] Consumer Behavior - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October reached 46,291 billion yuan, growing by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous month[11][21] - Retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 4.0%, indicating a rebound in other consumer sectors[21][25] - Jewelry consumption saw significant growth, while automobile sales turned negative[21][25] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, indicating a foundation for achieving annual targets[5][29] - New policy measures, including 500 billion yuan in financial tools, aim to stabilize fixed investment and stimulate consumption[5][29] - Continued focus on releasing domestic demand potential is essential for the fourth quarter[5][29] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in US-China policies[6][30]