证券投资基金研究报告/基金周报 有色金属板块表现较优 QDII 基金平均收益相对领先 ——基金市场周报（2025.9.22-2025.9.26） 报告日期：2025年10月13日 本期（2025.9.29-2025.10.10）上证指数上涨 1.80%，深证成指上 涨 1.11%。申万一级行业涨多跌少，其中有色金属和钢铁行业表现较 好。海外权益市场重要指数涨多跌少，国际黄金价格上涨。本期各类型 基金均上涨。主动投资股票基金较上期上涨 0.68%，主动投资混合基金 上涨 0.80%，主动投资债券基金上涨 0.16%；QDII 基金较上期上涨 2.60%。 图 1、基金指数近一年收益率走势 数据来源：wind，上海证券基金评价研究中心； 起止时间：2024 年 10 月 11 日——2025 年 10 月 10 日 数据来源：wind，上海证券基金评价研究中心；数据截至 2025 年 10 月 10 日 注：主动投资股票基金、混合基金及债券基金平均收益率采用中国开放式主动管理基 金系列指数收益率；其他类型基金平均收益率采用样本基金收益率算术平均值 分析师：池云飞 执业证书编号：S0870521090001 电话： ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the rapid commercialization of AI software and hardware, highlighting significant collaborations between OpenAI and major tech companies like AMD and Samsung, which are expected to drive growth in the AI and storage sectors [3][5][6] Summary by Sections Background - During the National Day holiday, there was a surge in AI-related news, with OpenAI launching Sora 2 and forming a strategic partnership with AMD for 6 GW of computing power, indicating a strong acceleration in AI software commercialization [3][4] Software Developments - OpenAI's Sora 2 was launched, achieving breakthroughs in audio-visual synchronization and introducing a refined IP control scheme, marking a significant step towards commercial viability [4][14] - The model supports diverse video styles and incorporates a multi-layered governance framework to ensure compliance and safety [4][14] Hardware Collaborations - OpenAI and AMD's partnership involves a "compute + equity" model, where AMD provides 6 GW of GPU resources in exchange for equity, potentially giving OpenAI about 10% of AMD's shares if fully exercised [5][16] - This innovative financial model alleviates cash flow pressures on AI companies while tightly coupling supply chain interests [5][16] Storage Sector Growth - OpenAI's collaboration with Samsung and SK Hynix aims to establish the "Stargate" AI infrastructure project, planning to procure approximately 900,000 semiconductor wafers by 2029 and build data centers in Korea [6][17] - This partnership is expected to unlock new growth opportunities in the high-end storage chip market, given the dominance of these companies in the DRAM and HBM markets [6][17] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the computing chip sector such as Cambrian and Haiguang Information, and in the storage chip sector, companies like Demingli and Zhaoyi Innovation [7][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strategic partnership between OpenAI and AMD, focusing on the demand for storage and AI computing power, which is expected to reshape the AI hardware ecosystem [7] - The report highlights significant revenue growth for companies involved in AI-related sectors, particularly in chip design and production, driven by increasing demand for AI computing capabilities [7] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97 points, with a weekly increase of +1.32%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56 points, up +1.47%. The ChiNext Index closed at 3261.82 points, rising +0.73%. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4709.48 points, with a weekly increase of +1.48%. The AI Index closed at 2398.43 points, up +0.91%, indicating alignment with the broader market trends [5] Technology Industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as PCB, ODM, AIOT, and AIDC for investment opportunities during market corrections [7] - Companies like Chipone Technology are expected to achieve record revenue in Q3 2025, with a projected revenue of 1.284 billion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 119.74% and a year-on-year increase of 78.77% [7] - OpenAI's collaboration with AMD involves a phased deployment of 6 GW of AMD GPU computing power, potentially making OpenAI a 10% shareholder in AMD if all conditions are met [7] - The "Stargate" project, involving significant investments from OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, aims to enhance the supply of advanced storage chips necessary for next-generation AI [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the PCB sector, such as Shenghong Technology and Dongshan Precision, which are expected to benefit from increased demand for AI servers and high-end PCB production [9] - It also highlights the importance of companies involved in storage solutions, suggesting that the supply-demand dynamics will lead to price increases, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Shannon Semiconductor being key players [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the continuous demand for computing power driven by advancements in AI, with significant developments from both domestic and international players [4][5] - The report emphasizes the emergence of various AI models and applications, showcasing the competitive landscape and innovation within the industry [5] - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies involved in computing power, AI data centers (AIDC), and AI applications [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the computer industry, particularly the ongoing growth in computing power demand due to AI advancements [1] Recent Developments - OpenAI launched Sora 2, a new video generation model, and announced a partnership with AMD for deploying 6 GW of GPU computing power [4] - Domestic AI models are proliferating, with notable releases from Alibaba, DeepSeek, Kuaishou, and Tencent, indicating a vibrant competitive environment [5] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies for investment include: - Computing Power: Huafeng Technology, Shenling Environment, Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Ambotong - AIDC: Kehua Data, Yunsai Zhili, Hongxin Electronics, Runjian Shares, Runze Technology, and Dataport - AI Applications: Kingsoft Office, iFlytek, Dingjie Smart, Hand Information, Zhuoyi Information, and Puyuan Information [6]

Market Performance - During the National Day holiday (October 1-7, 2025), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.57%, 0.39%, and 0.44% respectively[3] - The Nasdaq China Technology Index rose by 1.59%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.38% during the same period[3] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields primarily decreased, with the 10-year yield falling by 2 basis points to 4.14% as of October 7, 2025[4] - The yield curve steepened, with all maturities except for the 30-year remaining unchanged or decreasing during the holiday[4] Currency Trends - The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.78%, with the dollar appreciating against the Euro, Pound, and Yen by 0.65%, 0.17%, and 2.70% respectively[5] - The offshore RMB depreciated against the U.S. dollar, rising to 7.1458, a 0.24% increase[5] Gold Market - Gold prices surged, with London spot gold rising by 4.02% to $3979.00 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures increasing by 3.40% to the same price[6] - A rebound in domestic gold prices is anticipated post-holiday due to the significant rise in international prices[6] Economic Uncertainty - The U.S. government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, due to budget disagreements, which may lead to increased unemployment and reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting GDP growth[7] - The delay in non-farm payroll data release adds to economic uncertainty, affecting market predictions[8] Political Developments - Japan's political landscape may shift with the election of the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party, which could escalate geopolitical tensions in East Asia due to her conservative stance[9] Monetary Policy - The central bank plans to conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repo on October 9, 2025, to maintain liquidity, despite a net withdrawal in October due to maturing repos[10] Consumer Spending - The fourth batch of 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods has been allocated, expected to boost retail sales in the fourth quarter[10] Investment Strategy - The market may present structural investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, energy storage, and gold, while the bond market remains attractive despite short-term risks[11]

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - US and Hong Kong stocks declined. From 20250922 - 20250928, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changed by -0.65%, -0.31%, and 0.15% respectively, and the Hang Seng Index changed by -1.57% [2] - A - shares showed a mixed trend: large - cap stocks rose while small - cap stocks fell. During the same period, the wind All - A index changed by 0.25%, and the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind micro - cap stocks changed by 1.62%, 1.07%, 0.98%, -0.55%, -1.79%, and -0.21% respectively. In terms of sector styles, blue - chips and growth stocks in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, while the North Securities 50 Index changed by -3.11% [3] - Most industries declined, with semiconductors, non - ferrous metals, and new energy leading the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, 8 rose and 22 fell. The leading industries were electronics, non - ferrous metals, and new energy, with weekly gains of over 3%. Semiconductor equipment, science and technology innovation semiconductors, and chips among ETFs performed well, with weekly gains of over 7% [4] - Yields of various maturity varieties of interest - rate bonds fluctuated. From 20250922 - 20250928, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.14% compared to September 19, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.21 BP to 1.8768% [5] - The capital price increased, and the central bank made a net injection in the open market. As of September 26, 2025, R007 was 1.5538%, up 3.78 BP from September 19, 2025; DR007 was 1.5313%, up 2.17 BP. The central bank's net injection in the open market from 20250922 - 20250928 was 5806 billion yuan [6] - The bond market leverage level increased. The 7 - day capital cost was lower than the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. The differences between the yields of 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds and IRS007 as of September 26, 2025, were 9.34, 34.68, and 68.70 BP respectively. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume increased from 7.16 trillion yuan on September 19, 2025, to 7.27 trillion yuan on September 26, 2025 [7][8] - US Treasury yields increased, and the curve shifted upward. From 20250922 - 20250928, US Treasury yields increased. As of September 26, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 6 BP to 4.20% compared to September 19, 2025 [9] - The US dollar appreciated, and gold prices rose. From 20250922 - 20250928, the US dollar index increased by 0.55%. The US dollar appreciated against the euro, pound, and yen. Gold prices rose both internationally and domestically. London gold spot prices rose by 2.91% to $3769.85 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures prices rose by 2.51% to $3734.2 per ounce. Shanghai gold spot prices rose by 3.18% to 853.00 yuan per gram, and futures prices rose by 3.03% to 852.58 yuan per gram [10] Group 2: Core Views - The stock market may continue to fluctuate at a high level, and investors can look for structural investment opportunities. Although the September 22 joint press conference of the three financial regulatory departments did not mention short - term monetary policy adjustments, there may still be reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the future. It is recommended to focus on directions such as AI, computing power, energy storage, solid - state batteries, innovative drugs, gold, and rare earths [11] - Interest - rate bonds at current levels have allocation value, and investors should actively participate in gold allocation. The logic of the bond bull market remains intact, but high short - term risk appetite is not conducive to lower bond yields. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield close to 1.90% has allocation value. Gold prices are constantly hitting new highs, and it is advisable to actively participate in allocation [12]

Issuance Market - The report highlights the establishment of Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT with a total issuance scale of 2.287 billion yuan and an average allocation ratio of 0.29%. A total of 16 REITs have been issued this year, representing a decrease of 5.88% in quantity and a decrease of 12.65% in total issuance scale compared to the same period last year, amounting to 33.548 billion yuan [1][7][10] - The report indicates that compared to franchise REITs, property REITs have a significant advantage in both quantity and scale this year, accounting for approximately 88% of the total issuance [7][10] Secondary Market - Currently, there are 75 REIT products in the market with a total scale of 221.253 billion yuan. Property REITs lead the market, with a scale of 130.744 billion yuan, while franchise REITs have a scale of 90.509 billion yuan, showing a gap of over 40 billion yuan [2][17] - The REIT market experienced a slight decline of 0.69% in this period, trailing behind major stock indices. Year-to-date, the overall increase in the REIT market is 12.83%, which is lower than major stock indices but better than the CSI Dividend Index [2][18] Dividend Situation - In this period, 17 REITs distributed dividends totaling 1.302 billion yuan, marking a 44% increase compared to the previous period. The total dividends for the REIT market in 2025 amount to 8.245 billion yuan, with a dividend yield of 4.53%, which is on par with the CSI Dividend Index [3][30][34] - Franchise REITs have a higher dividend yield of 5.92% compared to property REITs, which have a yield of 3.41%. The report notes that franchise REITs have consistently outperformed property REITs in terms of both dividend amount and yield [3][30][34] Investment Value Analysis - The latest valuation for all property REITs is 26.19, slightly lower than the previous period, indicating a higher valuation compared to major stock indices. The report notes that the valuation for affordable housing REITs is relatively high, while industrial park REITs have the lowest valuation [4][38] - The report also highlights that the dividend yield for property REITs, based on actual dividends over the past year, is 3.85%, which is significantly higher than stock indices. The dividend yield calculated based on available distributable amounts is 4.03%, with industrial park REITs showing the highest yield at 4.50% [4][38][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has signed an investment agreement with Shanghai Haohai Xingkong Robot Co., Ltd. to establish a joint venture focused on building a robot manufacturing base, which will enhance its production capabilities and support future growth [5][6] - The company has a strong order backlog with 42 new projects under development, which is more than double the number of projects from 2023, indicating robust future growth potential [6] - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 increased by 21.10% year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 17.10%, and a gross margin of 29.94%, significantly higher than the automotive parts sector average of 18.56% [6] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be 2.18 billion, 2.66 billion, and 3.22 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.10%, 22.06%, and 20.93% [8] - The estimated price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same period are 26.11x, 21.39x, and 17.69x, indicating a favorable valuation trend [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.49 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2.10 billion respectively, with annual growth rates of 21.6%, 19.7%, and 17.8% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Viewpoints - Ganli Pharmaceutical has signed a significant "Technology Transfer and Supply Agreement" with Brazil's Ministry of Health and local biopharmaceutical company Biomm, with a total order amount expected to exceed 3 billion RMB over ten years [2][3] - The collaboration aims to enhance the stability of insulin supply in Brazil, addressing the urgent demand for insulin among diabetes patients in the country [3] - The partnership is structured to create a closed loop of "technology output - localization - long-term procurement," ensuring high-quality insulin accessibility and affordability in Brazil [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the increasing market position of Ganli Pharmaceutical in the insulin sector, being the first Chinese pharmaceutical company to participate in Brazil's PDP project, breaking the monopoly of multinational pharmaceutical companies [5] Company Performance - Ganli Pharmaceutical's insulin product agreement volume for the 2024 national insulin centralized procurement is 43.55 million units, an increase of 11.56 million units compared to the previous procurement, representing 30% of the total volume for this category [4] - The company's sales revenue for domestic insulin formulations reached 1.802 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 57.09% [4] Future Outlook - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to Ganli Pharmaceutical, given its strengthened market position and commitment to global healthcare governance through its participation in the PDP project [5]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive global economic outlook with rising market risk appetite, but warns of persistent issues such as regionalism, inflation, and structured valuation risks [1][17] - It suggests a cautious yet optimistic approach to asset allocation, focusing on companies' core competencies and balancing risk and return [1][17] Market Overview - Global equity assets showed strong performance in September 2025, with MSCI Global returning 2.31% and emerging markets at 6.78%, outperforming developed markets [8][14] - Domestic markets continued to rise, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 1.87% and active equity funds performing well, particularly the China Equity Index which rose by 6.03% [8][14] International Market Analysis - Manufacturing expansion remains slow overseas, with potential valuation "disproof" risks due to expectation discrepancies [1][18] - The report highlights that while AI innovations are driving growth in the service sector, their impact on traditional manufacturing remains uncertain [20][18] Domestic Market Analysis - The domestic economy shows strong resilience, with industrial value-added growth of 5.2% year-on-year in August, and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.3% [22][24] - Service sector growth is robust, with a production index increase of 5.6% year-on-year, particularly in information technology and financial services [22][24] Asset Allocation Strategy - For equity funds, a core + opportunity "barbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on companies with high performance certainty and dividend yields [51][52] - Fixed income funds should prioritize medium to short duration products for better value, as long-duration bonds face increasing risks [54][55] Sector-Specific Insights - The technology sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, particularly in areas like chips, AI, and renewable energy, although volatility risks are noted [52][55] - The report indicates that while gold remains a long-term investment due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, oil prices may face downward pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations and OPEC+ production increases [38][44][43]