证券研究珍报惜告有2限02创4/造5/2无9限 有色金属行业 白银行情的B面：光伏需求给予总需求多少支 投资评级 看好 撑？ ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] [Table_Invest] 消费数据点评： 商业贸易 评级： 中性 政策加码，义乌进出口景气度持续 日期： 2024.05.29 数据与政策跟踪 [分Ta析bl师e_ A何ut晓ho敏r] 登记编码：S0950523110001 义乌出口景气度持续。1-4月义乌市进出口总额同比增长22.0%，，其中，市 ： （021）61392631 场采购出口占比超八成，同比增长28.1%，通过一般贸易进出口 452.8亿元， ： hexiaomin@wkzq.com.cn 同比增长2.7%。1-4月，义务对主要贸易出口国出口额保持稳定增长，对共 建“一带一路”国家合计进出口1277.1亿元，同比增长26.5%。 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/5/29 6% 其中，劳密产品出口额727.2 亿元，同比增长27.9%，占义乌市出口总值的 -1% 41.2%；机电产品出口 669.1 亿元，同比增长 14.9%，占义乌市出口总值的 -8% -15% 37.9%。进口消费品占首位，1 至 4 月，义乌市的进口消费品达145.5 亿元， -23% 同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the lithium industry as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - In 2023, lithium carbonate production and sales increased year-on-year, but many companies faced significant inventory accumulation due to a price decline [4][11] - The average price of lithium carbonate fell by 46.38% to 258,700 CNY per ton, while the average selling price of lithium products from listed companies dropped by 40.50% to 213,000 CNY per ton [5][12] - The average cost of lithium salt increased by 21.3% to 136,000 CNY per ton, leading to a substantial decline in profitability [6][12] - The report anticipates a slight recovery in lithium salt profitability in 2024 as prices stabilize and high-cost inventory is consumed [13] Production and Sales Data - In 2023, the total lithium salt production reached 348,200 tons, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, while sales were 344,800 tons, up 2.8% [11][12] - Major companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and Shengxin Lithium maintained leading positions in production and sales [11][12] Price and Cost Analysis - The average selling price of lithium products decreased significantly, with Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Yahua maintaining higher average prices due to a larger share of overseas orders [5][12] - The report highlights that companies with high self-sufficiency in resources, such as Tianqi Lithium and Yongxing Materials, have lower costs compared to others [6][12] Profitability Metrics - The average gross profit margin for lithium products fell by 68.76% to 76,700 CNY per ton in 2023, with a gross margin of 44.09% and a net margin of 20.72% [12][15] - The report indicates that companies with higher self-sufficiency generally have better profitability metrics [15] Inventory Management - The lithium sector experienced a reduction in inventory, with total inventory decreasing by 11% to 26.66 billion CNY in 2023 [32] - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Salt Lake Co. managed their inventory levels effectively despite high production and sales [32] Capital Expenditure Trends - The report notes a decline in capital expenditure growth to 5% in Q1 2024, following a complete capital expenditure cycle from 2015 to 2020 [33] - Ganfeng, Tianqi, and Shengxin consistently maintained capital expenditures above the industry average [33] Cash Flow and Debt Management - The cash position of the lithium sector decreased, with the cash minus current liabilities metric dropping by 40.43% to 9.644 billion CNY in 2023 [34] - There are significant disparities in cash flow among companies, with Salt Lake Co. and Yongxing Materials showing strong cash positions [34]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The recent "reverse invoicing" policy is expected to enhance the profitability of resource recovery enterprises by allowing them to deduct VAT, potentially saving about 1% of costs [6][7] - Short-term disruptions in the flow of waste batteries are anticipated due to the initial implementation of the policy, but a gradual easing of supply constraints is expected in the medium to long term [7][19] - The core contradiction in lead prices lies in whether the supply tightness of waste batteries can be alleviated; while short-term prices may rise due to reduced supply, long-term price stability is expected as costs are passed down the supply chain [3][19] Summary by Sections Policy Overview - The "reverse invoicing" policy allows qualified resource recovery enterprises to issue invoices to individual sellers of waste products, which is expected to reduce tax burdens and enhance operational efficiency [6][8] - The policy includes tax exemptions for individual sellers with monthly sales below 100,000 yuan and a reduced VAT rate of 1% for small-scale taxpayers [8] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of waste batteries has tightened, leading to increased prices, with waste battery prices reaching 10,300 yuan per ton [11][19] - Primary lead production has decreased by 7.4% in April 2024, while recycled lead production has dropped by 7.8% due to supply constraints [11][14] Price Outlook - Short-term price corrections are expected, but medium to long-term price levels may rise as costs are transferred to downstream recycled lead smelters [19]

汽车行业 投资评级 看好 汽车行业2 4 Q1 财报总结： 新能源销量增速趋于平稳，车企增收不增利 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] [Table_Invest] 有色金属 “反向开票”对铅价影响几何？ 评级： 看好 日期： 2024.05.27 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A王ut小ho芃r] 登记编码：S0950523050002 4.24号，国家税务总局出台了关于资源回收企业向自然人报废产品出售者“反 ： 13401186193 向开票”有关事项的公告（5号文件），规定自 4.29号起，自然人报废产品 ： wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 出售者向资源回收企业销售报废产品，符合条件的资源回收企业可以向出售 分析师 刘艺帆 者开具发票（“反向开票”）。 登记编码：S0950523050003 事件点评 ： 18217026088 ： liuyifan@wkzq.com.cn 政策明确对资源回收业务的经营主体给予税务优惠支持，盈利水平有望提升。 从资源回收的产业链角度看，由于出售报废产品的多是自然人，而自然人往 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/5/27 往不愿意花费精力去税务部门办理代开发票，因此往往采用“不带票销售”方 13% 5% 式将报废 ...

证券研究报告|行业周报 2024/05/27 新能源行业 新能源产 业趋 势跟 踪（2 4 年 5 月上 ）： 投资评级 看好 美国关税 难挡 中国 新能源产业长期崛起趋势 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 光伏行 业点评：座谈会或带来行业 [ 电Tab 气le_I 设nve 备st] 评级： 看好 供需超预期改善 日期： 2024.05.25 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A蔡ut紫ho豪r] 登记编码：S0950523070002 2024年 5月 17日下午，在工业和信息化部电子信息司指导下，中国光伏行 ： 0755-23375705 业协会在北京组织召开“光伏行业高质量发展座谈会”。 ： caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 联系人 钟林志 事件点评 ： 021-61102511 ： zhonglinzhi@wkzq.com.cn 市场竞争+行政指导规范助力行业走出困境。光伏属于市场化行业，需要发挥 市场化手段解决行业困境。企业应适应光伏技术迭代速度快的特点，建立有 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/5/22 1% 效的知识产权保护措施；发挥行业兼并重组的市场化手段，畅通市场退出机 -7% 制；光伏企业应坚持创新驱动、坚持长期主义，合作共赢，共同维护公平竞争 -15% -24% 秩序。光伏行业规模化优势是重要竞争要素，在市场化 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the hydrogen energy industry as "Positive" [2]. Core Insights - Japan is a pioneer in hydrogen energy, having established a national strategy for hydrogen as early as 2017, while contrasting views from figures like Elon Musk highlight the ongoing debate about hydrogen's role in the energy system [7][8]. - The report identifies four key indicators for hydrogen's energy positioning: heating value price, volumetric energy density, mass energy density, and energy efficiency, emphasizing that hydrogen has advantages in mass energy density but disadvantages in volumetric energy density and energy efficiency [11][12]. - Hydrogen is seen as a viable solution for decarbonization in sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as cement, glass, and steel industries, where it can significantly reduce carbon emissions [24][28]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Hydrogen Energy Perspectives - Japan has been proactive in hydrogen energy development, establishing the Hydrogen Energy Association in 1973 and launching various strategic initiatives over the years [5][9]. - Elon Musk's criticism of hydrogen as an energy storage solution contrasts with Japan's commitment to hydrogen, raising questions about the future of hydrogen in the energy landscape [10][11]. Section 2: Identifying Hydrogen's Energy Positioning - The report outlines that hydrogen's heating value price is competitive, especially if green hydrogen prices drop to 10 CNY/kg, making it comparable to natural gas [13]. - Hydrogen's mass energy density is highlighted as a significant advantage, particularly in applications where weight is critical, such as aerospace [16]. - The volumetric energy density of hydrogen is lower than that of natural gas and other fuels, which limits its use in certain applications [18]. - Energy efficiency remains a challenge, with the "electric-hydrogen-electric" cycle achieving only 35%-42% efficiency, but potential improvements through heat and power integration are noted [22][37]. Section 3: Application Scenarios for Hydrogen - Hydrogen is positioned as a key player in hard-to-electrify sectors, with significant potential for reducing carbon emissions in industries like cement and glass [24][27]. - The report emphasizes the economic value of hydrogen in long-duration energy storage, particularly in scenarios where seasonal electricity demand varies significantly [36]. - Heat and power integration can enhance the overall efficiency of hydrogen systems, with examples from Japan's residential fuel cell systems demonstrating high energy conversion efficiencies [37]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in the entire hydrogen supply chain, particularly those engaged in storage, transportation, and refueling infrastructure [2].

证券研究报告 [|T a行ble业_跟Fir踪st ] [Table_Main] 寻找氢的能源定位——从日本和马斯 [电Tab气le_I设nve备st] 评级： 看好 克的分歧说起 日期： 2024.05.24 报告要点 [分Ta析bl师e_ A蔡ut紫ho豪r] 登记编码：S0950523070002 日本是在氢能源的方向上走的最早、最坚定的国家之一，是全世界第一个把 ： caizihao@wkzq.com.cn 氢能作为国家战略的国家。然而，马斯克则表示“氢气是我能想象到的能源存 分析师 张鹏 储最愚蠢的事情”。如何看待日本和马斯克的分歧？如何理解氢在能源体系 登记编码：S0950523070001 中的定位？我们试着结合氢的物理属性和应用场景，提出我们的思考。 ： 18373169614 针对氢在能源体系中的定位，我们构建了四维指标：热值价格、体积能量密 ： zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 度、质量能量密度、能量效率。氢的在质量能量密度方面有优势，在体积能量 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/5/23 密度、能量效率方面存在劣势。从热值价格角度，氢并没有贵的离谱：以 2 ...