[Table_Main] 铜企五大要素变化趋势——中国 9 家年报全扫描 事件描述 根据已披露年报、布局铜矿的 9 家中国企业（紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、江西铜 业、云南铜业、中国有色矿业、五矿资源、中国中铁、中国黄金国际、西 部矿业等等），我们对其产量、资源量、储量、成本、战略规划等进行分析。 事件点评 2024 年中国样本企业积极增储。根据公司公告，2024 年样本铜企合计资源 量同比+27%，合计储量同比+21%。紫金矿业的铜资源量仍旧保持第一，储 量同比增速也领先同行。并购方面，2024 年五矿资源和紫金矿业在并购市场 上较为活跃。勘探方面，紫金矿业 2024 年勘探投入同比+4%；中国有色矿业 通过深边部找矿新增资源量同比+10%。 ：021-61102510 ：w angxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 2024 年中国头部铜企产量超预期。2024 年样本铜企矿产铜产量合计 304 万 吨，同比+42 万吨，同比+16%。相较于 2024 年初的产量指引，2024 年实际 合计产量比年初产量指引高 3%，主要得益于洛阳钼业超预期完成。在样本铜 企中，2024 年紫金矿业和云南铜业的实际产量低于产 ...

[Table_Main] 有色月跟踪："对等关税"出台，避险 情绪冲击市场 报告要点 三月有色金属行情整体呈现结构性分化。工业金属受供给扰动及传统旺季需 求支撑，铜铝锡价偏强；小金属表现亮眼，锑因原料短缺和出口管制暴涨，稀 土、钴受资源国政策刺激上涨，而钨、钛紧平衡运行，短期内出口受政策博弈 受挫。宏观上全球贸易政策变动及资源国觉醒加大供应不确定性。美国"对等 关税"出台短期内导致金属价格波动大幅加剧，进一步也将致使全球双体系 供应链加速巩固及内外价差现象不断上演。 铜价受中美关税博弈、中国经济刺激政策的宏观因素，以及矿端紧缺双重驱 动。3 月冶炼厂加工费（TC）维持负值，亏损扩大至-2083 元/吨。全球铜矿 供给存在扰动，智利、秘鲁环保限产，但新能源（光伏、电网）及旺季需求支 撑价格韧性。美国加征关税将导致贸易摩擦加剧，经济衰退预期升温，受避险 情绪冲击铜价高位回落，但基本面给予铜价支撑。 锑价创新高，同时国内外剧烈分化。国内因环保停产（冷水江）、俄出口配额 削减及国家收储推动本月锑锭 99.65%价格上涨至 24 万元/吨，国际现货价 5.95 万美元/吨，折合人民币价差接近 20 万元/吨。光伏、军工 ...

事件点评 对等关税影响有限，美国高盈利可以吸收目前税率水平。目前美国对东南亚 国家的对等关税税率如下：泰国 36%，越南 46%（可能取消），马来西亚 24%， 柬埔寨 49%，老挝 48%，印度尼西亚 32%，菲律宾 17%，新加坡 10%等， 整体暂缓 90 天，目前只征收 10%的对等关税。根据 Infolink 报价，目前美国 组件价格达到 0.26 美元/W，相比国内 0.745 元/W 的组件价格有明显溢价， 产业链利润基本可以承担目前对等关税水平，因此对等关税影响有限。 东南亚双反税率对美国光伏供给影响较大，可能导致美国需求下调，带来组 件涨价。2024 年 11 月 29 日，美国商务部公布其对东南亚四国柬埔寨、马来 西亚、泰国和越南晶体光伏电池（无论是否组装成组件）反倾销税调查的初步 肯定性裁定，对东南亚四国的反倾销税率范围在 0~271.28%。该税率对东南 亚光伏产能将带来较重负担，我们预计会导致东南亚产能在美国没有经济性。 而美国目前电池产能供给有限，或将带来美国光伏需求下调，同时组件价格 上涨，这有助于美国本土光伏企业发展。 光伏供给呈现分散化趋势，产线搬迁或成为光伏企业应对良方。目 ...

Macroeconomic Impact - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. on April 2, 2025, signals a shift in global trade dynamics and geopolitical relations, accelerating the restructuring of global economic and trade patterns[6] - The potential for a global economic recession remains high, with a long-term view suggesting a reconfiguration of global supply chains, leading to temporary supply shortages and increased investment, which may elevate medium to long-term inflation pressures[8] - The U.S. dollar's credibility may weaken due to accelerated "de-dollarization" trends and rising trade protectionism[8] Financial Market Reactions - The "tariff storm" has intensified, leading to a rapid decline in risk asset prices, with expectations of higher volatility in domestic equity markets[9] - Short-term performance of brokerage firms and credit businesses is likely to be under pressure due to heightened investor risk aversion[9] - Long-term capital inflows into the market are expected to continue, with insurance companies increasing their equity investment space[9] Commodity and Metal Sector - The impact of tariffs on commodities is categorized into two main directions: bulk commodities and China's advantageous minor metals, with significant effects on demand and pricing dynamics[10] - Copper prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to tight domestic supply, despite macroeconomic uncertainties[12] - Zinc's overall impact from tariffs is limited due to China's small import scale from the U.S., but downstream products may face market share pressures[13] New Energy and Technology - The lithium market is largely unaffected by tariffs, as key products are exempt, but the overall demand for lithium batteries may decline due to increased costs[23] - The U.S. storage sector may face demand risks, but its overall impact on global demand remains manageable, with China maintaining a leading position in the supply chain[24] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic production due to tariffs, despite potential short-term price increases for imported chips[31] Strategic Resources and Rare Earths - China maintains a dominant position in the rare earth market, with over 70% of U.S. imports relying on Chinese sources, particularly for heavy rare earths[20] - The introduction of tariffs may lead to price increases for strategic metals, with ongoing geopolitical tensions influencing supply chain dynamics[19] Automotive and High-End Manufacturing - The automotive sector is likely to see significant price increases in the U.S. due to a 25% tariff on vehicles and parts, impacting domestic demand[28] - China's engineering machinery exports are relatively insulated from tariffs, with limited exposure to the U.S. market, allowing for continued global operations[33] Consumer and Trade Dynamics - The tourism and retail sectors may benefit from changes in tax policies, with domestic consumption potentially increasing due to higher prices on imported goods[34] - The overall trade landscape is shifting, with opportunities for domestic businesses to capitalize on tariff-induced market changes[34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. government's imposition of a 125% tariff on Chinese imports, particularly affecting the lithium battery sector, is expected to impact China's export market significantly, with an estimated loss of approximately $15.3 billion in lithium battery exports to the U.S. in 2024 [2][13] - Despite the tariff pressures, China's lithium battery industry is anticipated to maintain strong competitiveness due to its established supply chain and production efficiency compared to U.S. manufacturers [16][17] - The report highlights that the U.S. will likely rely more on domestic production, which may lead to higher costs and delayed price parity for electric vehicles [16] Summary by Sections Event Description - On April 10, 2025, the U.S. announced an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, continuing a trend that began with the IRA Act in 2022 [2][10] Event Commentary - The U.S. tariffs are expected to have a more significant impact on the export of energy storage batteries, which constitute a major portion of China's lithium battery exports to the U.S. [3][13] - In 2024, China's lithium battery exports are projected to account for 16% of total shipments, with the U.S. being the largest market [12][13] Global Supply Chain Impact - The report discusses the potential shifts in the global lithium battery supply chain, noting that while China may reduce exports to the U.S., other countries like Japan and South Korea may partially fill the demand gap [16] - The U.S. domestic market will likely face higher production costs and lower efficiency compared to China, which could delay the adoption of affordable electric vehicles [16] Implications for China - The increase in tariffs may lead to a reduction in exports to the U.S. and an increase in prices for exported products, particularly energy storage batteries [17] - The report suggests that China may respond by investing in local production facilities in the U.S. or exploring markets with lower tariffs [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report rates the automotive industry as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts will significantly increase the cost of cars in the U.S., raising the average vehicle cost by approximately $7,000, which is about 14% of the current vehicle price [3][14] - The U.S. automotive industry is highly dependent on imports, with 50% of vehicle sales coming from imports and 69% of the supply chain value being imported [3][12] - Traditional automakers like Ford and General Motors will be more adversely affected by the tariffs compared to newer companies like Tesla, as a significant portion of their vehicles is manufactured outside the U.S. [15] Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation - A 25% tariff on imported cars and parts was announced, effective April 3, 2025, for vehicles and May 3, 2025, for parts [2][11] - The tariffs are uniform and do not vary based on the country of origin, with exemptions for parts that meet the U.S. value content requirements under the USMCA [2][11] Impact on U.S. Automotive Prices - The additional tariffs will lead to a substantial increase in vehicle prices, which could dampen overall automotive demand in the U.S. market [3][14] - The projected increase in vehicle costs could lead to a stagnation in the growth of the U.S. automotive market, particularly affecting the sales of electric vehicles [15] Effects on Other Countries - Mexico, Canada, Japan, and South Korea are the primary countries affected by the tariffs, with these nations accounting for 89% of U.S. automotive imports [4][17] - Mexico is particularly vulnerable, as automotive exports to the U.S. represent 26% of its total exports [4][20] - In contrast, China's automotive export volume to the U.S. is relatively low, with only 11,600 vehicles expected to be exported in 2024, making the impact of the tariffs on China limited [5][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-banking financial sector is "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The recent adjustment by the National Financial Regulatory Administration to increase the equity investment ratio for insurance funds is expected to bring over 1 trillion yuan of incremental funds to the A-share market [4][12] - The new regulations simplify the solvency adequacy ratio standards and raise the upper limit for equity asset allocation from 45% to 50%, which will enhance the stability of the capital market [4][12] - The increase in the concentration limit for insurance funds investing in venture capital funds from 20% to 30% is a significant benefit for the venture capital industry, allowing for more flexible fundraising [5][17] - The merger of tax-deferred pension insurance accounts with other insurance product accounts will enhance the competitiveness of the third pillar of pension insurance [5][18] Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notification on April 8, 2025, adjusting the regulatory ratio for insurance funds' equity assets, which aims to support the capital market and the real economy [2][11] Market Impact - The adjustment is a response to recent global financial market disturbances caused by tariff policies, aiming to stabilize the domestic equity market and restore investor confidence [3][12] - The insurance funds' investment balance as of the end of 2024 was 33.26 trillion yuan, and a 5% increase in equity asset allocation could lead to an additional 1.66 trillion yuan entering the equity market [4][12] Sector Opportunities - The new regulations are expected to benefit strategic emerging industries and the health sector, which are closely related to the insurance business [5][17] - The focus on long-term capital investment aligns with the government's push for high-quality development in the third pillar of pension insurance [5][18]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" indicating an expected overall return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [3][23]. Core Viewpoints - The recent imposition of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods by the US, including a "reciprocal tariff," is an escalation of ongoing policies aimed at suppressing China's lithium battery industry, which began with the IRA Act in 2022 [2][8]. - The expected tariffs on Chinese exports to the US for power batteries and energy storage batteries are projected to be 153% and 136% respectively, significantly impacting China's export dynamics [2][12]. - The US is the largest export market for China's lithium batteries, accounting for 25% of total exports, with an estimated export value of approximately $15.3 billion in 2024 [11][12]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The US has announced a series of tariffs on Chinese goods, including a significant increase to 125% on certain products, which is part of a broader strategy to limit China's lithium battery sector [1][8]. Impact on Global Supply Chain - The tariffs will likely lead to a reduction in Chinese exports to the US, with potential short-term demand being filled by Japanese and Korean manufacturers, although they may not fully replace Chinese products in the energy storage segment [2][14]. - The US will increasingly rely on domestic production, which may enhance local employment but will also face higher production costs compared to China, delaying the price parity point for electric vehicles [15][16]. Effects on China - The tariffs are expected to reduce the volume of lithium battery exports to the US, potentially impacting around 4% of China's total battery shipments, but the overall effect on the domestic market is considered limited [16]. - The cost pressures from tariffs may lead to increased prices for exported products, particularly in the energy storage sector, which is primarily based on lithium iron phosphate [16][18]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that the Chinese lithium battery industry will maintain a strong competitive edge despite the tariffs, with strategies including local investments in the US, shifting production to regions with lower tariffs, and expanding into other markets [18][19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [6][4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 aligns with previous earnings reports, with total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the duty-free segment, which saw sales of approximately 38.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.58% year-on-year [2][3] - The Hainan duty-free market experienced a significant downturn, with revenue of 28.89 billion yuan, down 27% year-on-year, accounting for 51% of total revenue [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its channels, having secured operating rights for duty-free projects at 10 airports and ports, with notable revenue growth at existing duty-free stores in major airports [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.35 billion yuan, down 76.9% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 32.0%, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year [2] Market Opportunities - The introduction of the new policy on city duty-free stores is expected to provide a new growth avenue for the company, with the opening of a duty-free store in Dalian and additional stores planned in cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou [3][4] Future Projections - The company is projected to recover its growth rate under supportive policies and consumer recovery trends, with estimated net profits of 4.9 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][13]