[Table_Main] 有色月跟踪：小金属涨价周期已至，重 视战略矿产资源价值评估 报告要点 近期小金属市场热度高企，价格中枢上行。主要原因在于战略小金属储量有 限、开采难度大且供给弹性不足，同时新能源、半导体、军工等下游需求快 速增长，叠加地缘政治致供应链波动及中国对钨、锑、稀土等实施出口管制， 内外价差拉大，供需矛盾加剧。在资源稀缺性持续凸显、需求结构升级及政 策调控下，未来小金属价格有望延续上行趋势，具备资源储量优势、技术壁 垒及合规出口渠道的企业将持续受益。 2025 年 5 月有色金属板块整体温和上涨。贵金属（黄金）及战略小金属（稀 土、钨等）领涨，5 月全球地缘政治局势紧张加剧，中东地区冲突持续升级， 俄乌局势也出现新的波动，导致国际金融市场风险偏好下降，黄金作为传统 的避险资产，价格持续走高。受资源稀缺性、政策管控以及下游新兴产业需 求增长的影响，稀土、钨等战略小金属价格上涨。铜和铝价格呈现温和上涨 态势，但供需整体处于紧平衡状态。未来需重点关注美联储降息节奏、中国 经济复苏力度及细分品种供需边际变化。 全球多国围绕关键性矿产资源保护及开发密集出台政策，主要手段有资源管 控升级、深化国际合作、 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 [Table_Main] 地方债务压力何时出清？财政还需加 码多少才能稳增长？ 报告要点 预计本轮债务压力将在 2027 年逐步减轻。届时地方债务付息率将与债务率出 现交叉，标志着偿债压力进入实质性缓解阶段。我们认为目前中国仍处于"去 杠杆与稳增长"并行的阶段，虽然非金融部门债务率趋于稳定，但受隐性债务 高企与地方财政收缩影响，整体付息压力仍然较大。若当前"低息借新还旧"政 策持续推进、严格控制新增债务，预计债务付息率将从 2023 年的 14% 降至 2027 年的 12.8%左右。我们认为该趋势主要基于三方面因素：一是融资利率 持续下行，推动整体利息成本下降；二是债务结构优化，低息合规债务逐步替 代高息非标融资；三是名义 GDP 增长带来的"被动稀释"效应。相较 2010– 2015 年的去杠杆周期，本轮调整在多重冲击下持续时间更长，但去杠杆方式 更加制度化和市场化，意味着债务化解将更为温和，并逐步转向信用重建，财 政与金融体系将迎来制度性修复窗口。 地方债务限额与收支缺口对表，发展增量所需资金受限。地方债务限额与收支 缺口"对表安排"，使专项债逐步演化为"缺口填补工具"，尤其 ...

事件点评 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 2025 年陆家嘴论坛解读：更开放，更 包容 事件描述 2025 年 6 月 18 日至 19 日，陆家嘴论坛在上海召开。本次论坛主题是"全球经济变 局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展"。 证监会主席吴清做出了《充分发挥多层次资本市场枢纽功能 推动科技创新和产业创 新融合发展》的主旨演讲，结合其他领导人的相关表述，我们认为本次陆家嘴论坛重 点在于进一步扩大金融对外开放、增强资本市场对科技型企业的包容性。"去美元化" 背景下，伴随着人民币国际化和资本市场深改的推进，中国资产吸引力持续提升。下 一阶段资本市场改革将再提速、更细化，本次论坛重点关注以下三个方面的内容： 重科创金融，以科创板为抓手促进科技创新和产业创新融合发展。本次论坛强调更好 发挥资本市场枢纽功能，在科创板推出"1+6"改革措施是一大亮点。"1"指新设科 创板成长层，并将未盈利企业全部纳入科创成长层，"6"项改革措施中，关注扩大科 创板第五套标准适用范围。当前科创板采用第五套标准的上市公司全部属于生物医药 领域，未来这一范围将拓展至人工智能、低空经济等更多前沿科技领域企业。2018 年， ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Baowu Magnesium Industry [3][45]. Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the corrosion resistance of magnesium alloys is crucial for their application in the automotive sector, with a potential market growth of 5 times due to enhanced economic viability as magnesium prices decline [1][2]. - Baowu Magnesium has launched corrosion-resistant magnesium alloy components, indicating progress in applications requiring high corrosion resistance, such as electric motor housings [1][26]. - The company has a comprehensive layout in the magnesium alloy manufacturing sector, with significant reserves and production capacities planned for the future [1][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Magnesium Alloy Corrosion Resistance - Enhancing corrosion resistance is key to unlocking the market for automotive magnesium alloy components [10]. - Magnesium alloys have shown better weight reduction compared to aluminum alloys, making them economically viable as magnesium prices have decreased [12][13]. - The current application of magnesium alloys in vehicles is limited, with potential usage significantly higher than current levels [18][19]. 2. Baowu Magnesium's Capabilities - Baowu Magnesium has successfully developed a magnesium alloy electric drive assembly that meets industry corrosion resistance requirements [26]. - The company has invested in R&D and established various innovation platforms to enhance product development [28]. 3. Industry Layout and Production Capacity - Baowu Magnesium has a well-structured layout in magnesium resources, production, and customer development, ensuring a competitive edge in the market [29]. - The company holds substantial magnesium ore reserves, with a total of 175,359.38 million tons available for extraction [32]. - Planned production capacities include 50,000 tons of raw magnesium and 60,000 tons of magnesium alloys by the end of 2024 [34][41]. 4. Profitability and Valuation Forecast - The forecasted EPS for Baowu Magnesium for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.241, 0.374, and 0.606 respectively, with dynamic PE ratios indicating a favorable investment outlook [2][45]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the automotive magnesium alloy market due to improvements in corrosion resistance [45].

[Table_Main] 降本不可持续 ——澳矿 2025Q1 财报梳理分析 事件点评 量：2025Q1 澳洲锂矿产量环比下降 13%。而受 Mt Marion 上调产量影 响，预计 2025 年澳矿全年产量同比增长 3.92%，至 362 万吨。2025Q1 澳洲锂精矿产量环比下降 13%至 83.7 万吨 SC6 锂精矿， 主要系 Greenbushes 原矿品位下滑、P1000 项目调试、Ngungaju 和 Bald Hill 矿 山关停所致；销量受发运时间影响，环比下降 5%至 85.2 万吨。本季度 Marion 上调 25 财年生产指引 20%，Holland 下调 25 财年生产指引 13%， 其余矿山生产指引不变。结合各矿山产能及规划情况，我们预计 2025 全 年澳洲锂精矿产量同比小幅增加 3.92%至 362 万吨。 成本：四大维度分析，澳矿进一步降本空间极为有限。25Q1 澳洲高成本 矿山降本效果明显，其中 Marion 与 Wodgina 矿山降本幅度超过 25%。 Q1 澳矿主要通过提高剥采比（开采富矿）、提升回收率、裁员及减少资 本开支等四大方式降低矿山生产成本。而在我们看来，澳 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Main] 经济仍需政策呵护——5月宏观月度观 察 报告摘要 海外宏观：关税冲击下发达国家展现相对韧性。5 月份是美国"对等关税"冲 击下的第二个月份。全球经济虽然放缓，但下滑幅度不算大。发达国家和新兴 经济体出现明显分化。在关税冲击下，发达国家经济景气度展现出较强韧性， 我们认为这是由于发达国家的内需较强，抵抗外部冲击的能力更强。新兴经济 体制造业 PMI 指数则快速下滑，我们认为新兴市场对于全球贸易的依赖度更 高，所以受到美国关税政策的冲击更大。关税对海外通胀影响尚不明显。5 月 美国通胀保持平稳，欧元区通胀持续下行。发达国家的通胀数据走势表明关税 战对于通胀的影响低于最初市场的预期。但其中一个重要原因是美国对外的 "额外关税"有 90 天的豁免期。这期间有较多的贸易抢跑及提前备货，平抑 了通胀的短期波动。我们认为未来海外通胀仍存在较大的上行风险。 国内宏观：经济仍待政策呵护。消费高速增长，但持续性存疑。5 月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，是本月经济最大的亮点。我们认为 5 月消费高速 增长的主要动力有两点：一是电商"618"促销活动提前至 5 月 13 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The battery segment is a critical bottleneck for the development of the low-altitude economy, which requires batteries with high energy density, high power output, and high safety standards [3][9] - The demand for batteries in the low-altitude economy is characterized by the "three highs": high energy density, high power output, and high safety, which presents significant challenges [9] - The rapid development of the low-altitude economy necessitates innovations in battery materials and cost reductions to meet economic and safety requirements [9] Summary by Sections Battery Requirements - High energy density: By 2035, the goal is to produce aviation lithium batteries with an energy density of 400Wh/kg [3][13] - High power output: The battery must support high power outputs of 3-8C during vertical takeoff and landing [13][20] - High safety: The disaster-level failure rate for manned aircraft must be less than 10^(-9) per flight hour [13][20] Material Innovations - The transition to silicon-carbon anodes is expected to significantly enhance energy density, with cost reductions anticipated as technical barriers are overcome [3][14][20] - Solid-state battery solutions are well-suited for the low-altitude economy due to their better thermal stability compared to high-energy-density cathode materials [20][23] - The development of high-nickel cathodes, conductive materials, and improved cooling structures will also be promoted [20][23] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in silicon-carbon anode materials and solid-state battery-related industries [4][20]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 中印大合同签订，钾肥价格重心上移 事件描述 据中国无机盐协会消息，2025 年 6 月 12 日，中国钾肥进口谈判小组（中化、 中农、中海化学）与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就 2025 年钾肥年度进口合 同价格达成一致，合同价格为 346 美元/吨 CFR。此前在 2025 年 6 月 5 日， 印度钾肥进口大合同价格确定为 349 美元/吨，该价格由俄罗斯钾肥公司 （BPC）与印度化肥进口商 IPL 达成，今年计划发货 65 万吨。 事件点评 中印 25 年钾肥大合同价格涨幅超过 25%，中国仍是全球钾肥"价格洼地"。 据中国无机盐协会消息，2025 年 6 月 12 日，中国钾肥进口谈判小组（中化、 中农、中海化学）与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就 2025 年钾肥年度进口合 同价格达成一致，合同价格为 346 美元/吨 CFR，较去年大合同增长 73 美元 /吨，同比上涨 26.7%。此前在 2025 年 6 月 5 日，印度钾肥大合同价格为 349 美元/吨，较去年同比上涨 25%，该价格由俄罗斯钾肥公司（BPC）与印度化 肥进口商 IPL 达成，今年计划发货 65 万吨。据 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-oil and gas geological exploration industry is "Positive" [5]. Core Insights - The geological exploration industry in China has entered a new growth cycle, with non-oil and gas geological exploration investment increasing for four consecutive years. In 2024, the total investment reached 22.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [2][12]. - The funding for mineral exploration is primarily directed towards gold, copper, and uranium, with significant increases in rare earths, gold, and silver exploration investments in 2024 [2][15]. - The industry is experiencing a structural transformation, with a slight reduction in personnel and an increase in social capital investment, which accounted for 46.05% of total funding in 2024 [3][30]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - In 2024, the total investment in non-oil geological exploration reached 22.957 billion yuan, with mineral exploration accounting for 13.917 billion yuan, representing 60.6% of the total [12][15]. - The investment in rare earth exploration saw a remarkable increase of 128.9% year-on-year, while investments in phosphorus and molybdenum also rose significantly [15][19]. Industry Performance - The total revenue of the geological exploration industry in China for 2024 was 404.637 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.46% [26]. - The workforce in the geological exploration sector has slightly decreased, with a total of 402,400 employees by the end of 2024, a reduction of 3.1% compared to the previous year [27]. Strategic Developments - Major mining companies are focusing on brownfield exploration to enhance resource acquisition efficiency and extend the lifespan of mines. Companies like Zijin Mining and China Minmetals have established subsidiaries dedicated to exploration [4][34]. - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation and strategic partnerships in enhancing exploration capabilities, with companies leveraging digital technologies and AI for improved efficiency [35][38]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the capital market for mineral exploration in China is still developing, with government funding constituting a significant portion of total investment, unlike in more mature markets like Canada and Australia [30][36]. - The exploration rights for non-oil minerals in China have increased, with a total of 11,681 valid exploration rights by the end of 2024, marking a 3.8% increase from the previous year [21].

高端制造产业跟踪（5月）： 灵巧手快速降本，锂电设备触底 五矿证券研究所 高端制造行业 分析师：祁岩 登记编码：S0950523090001 邮箱： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 电话：010-56307033 联系人：周越 邮箱： zhouyue@wkzq.com.cn 电话：13167229763 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025/06/12 | 机械设备行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 联系人：张雪 邮箱： zhangxue1@wkzq.com.cn Contents 目录 板块观点 01 02 数据跟踪 03 04 行情回顾 新闻&公告 板块观点 挖机销量稳健增长，盈利能力是核心变量。2025年4月挖机销量2.21万台，同比+17.6%；其中国内销量1.25万台，同比+16.4%；海外销量0.96万台，同比 +19.3%。除挖掘机外，装载机销量同比+19.2%，压路机销量同比+36.2%均有不错表现。我们认为格局稳固，盈利改善是工程机械板块核心投资逻辑。 锂电设备基本面触底。锂电设备企业一季报合同负债回升，毛利率见底。宁德时代交流表示产能利用率比较饱和。 ...