[Table_Main] 插电混动汽车进化论：经济性带来持续 繁荣，但终将因技术革命改变 报告要点 繁荣：中国插电混合动力（下简称插混）汽车市场增速连续 3 年多超过纯电 动汽车，补能效率的优势一直存在，经济性是本轮插混爆发的主因。中国市场 通勤需求大，2021 年开始，一系列购置成本和通勤油耗双低的混动产品带来 了销量爆发。这些主流混动技术主要通过发动机只发电，电机驱动车辆的串 联工作模式解决通勤油耗问题，将发动机转速和功率均与汽车行驶状态"解 耦"（解绑），避免频繁启停和低速、低功率运转损害燃油经济性。在串联结 构基础上，车企不断优化混动架构，降低制造成本。 纯电动汽车补能效率逐渐提升，插混汽车能否持续保持经济性成为后续发展 的关键。随着纯电动汽车单车带电量增加、快充技术普及和充电网络持续布 局，插混补能效率的优势逐渐减弱，经济性将决定插混市场会长期繁荣或仅 仅是全面电动化之前的过渡。 演化：插混汽车可分为发动机可直驱车辆（PHEV，取狭义概念便于区分）和 不可直驱车辆（EREV）两类，有以下趋势： 1） 传统车企凭借在发动机技术，燃油车车型平台等方面的产品技术积累，不 断优化 PHEV 产品。PHEV ...

海外宏观：关税战对经济冲击弱化，通胀开始抬头。6 月全球制造业 PMI 指数 录得 50.3%，重回景气区间。我们认为关税战对于经济的第一轮冲击正在弱 化。其主要原因在于随着美国豁免了对外的"对等关税"，并和各国关税谈判 持续进行，市场主体对于过高关税的担忧逐步降温，并恢复了较多的经贸活动。 全球贸易也有所恢复，典型出口国韩国、越南出口表现均较好。美国"滞胀" 预期降温，但是关税对通胀影响初步显现。我们预计随着关税传导效应进一步 显现，未来几个月内美国通胀还会继续上升，这也将降低美联储降息概率。 国内宏观：上半年运行良好，但边际变化值得关注。二季度中国 GDP 实际同 比增长 5.2%，表现良好。值得注意的是，二季度名义 GDP 同比增速只有 3.9% ， 较一季度下降了 0.6 个百分点，降幅较大，是 2023 年以来的最低增速。G DP 名义增速与实际增速之间的差值进一步扩大，这会导致企业和居民对经济的体 感受到负面影响。由于实际 GDP 表现较好，所以我们认为政策的定力会增强， 预计短期内不急于推出大规模经济刺激政策，政策节奏会视三季度经济走势而 定。6 月份经济的边际变化值得关注：第一是消费走弱。第二 ...

Group 1: Tariff War Objectives - The primary goals of the tariff war initiated by the Trump administration include reducing the U.S. trade deficit, promoting the return of American manufacturing, and ensuring national security by curbing China's development[1] - The U.S. imposed a 10% base tariff on global imports, with additional tariffs reaching as high as 125% on certain goods from China[1] - The tariff strategy is seen as a response to the growing income inequality in the U.S., with the top 10% income group capturing a significant share of total income[1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The World Bank revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3% due to the impacts of the tariff war[1] - The estimated cumulative impact of the tariff war on the U.S. economy ranges from a 0.3% to 2.1% decline by 2026, depending on various scenarios[1] - China's economy is expected to face a short-term impact of less than 0.5% due to the tariff war, with long-term effects being limited as exports diversify[1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The U.S. bond market's stability is crucial, as significant fluctuations could lead to increased refinancing costs for the government, impacting fiscal policy sustainability[1] - The dollar is anticipated to enter a long-term downtrend, influenced by trade deficit reduction efforts and rising government debt concerns[1] - The report suggests that while the negative impacts of tariffs will continue to emerge, they are manageable and a major recession is unlikely[1]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 关税战后的全球新秩序 报告要点 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普发动新一轮面向全球几乎所有国家的关税战。虽然 目前关税战力度已经大大减轻，但我们认为关税战造成的影响仍将非常深远。 特朗普在全球范围内发动大规模关税战，其目的有以下几点：一是缩减美国的 贸易逆差；二是促进美国制造业回流；三是保障国家安全，遏制中国发展。但 是特朗普政府也面临着现实约束，美国债券市场的稳定性至关重要；美国通胀 压力和特朗普的支持率也制约着特朗普关税政策。目前关税谈判的结果还存在 较大不确定性，但是在面临多重现实约束和宪政困境下，美国对外关税很难达 到 4 月 2 日公布的最高水平，我们预计最终实际落地的关税幅度会大幅削减， 更可能是略高于 10%的基础关税水平，是市场可以接受的范围。 在特朗普发动新一轮关税战之后，各大机构和经济学者均下调了对于海外经 济的预期。但从全球经济的实际表现来看，到目前为止各国受到的冲击有限。 我们认为未来关税对全球经济的负面影响还会陆续显现，但是影响可控，有望 避免大衰退。对于中国而言，短期内经济会面临一定压力，乐观情形下关税战 对中国经济的影响略小于 0.5 个百分点。对中国经 ...

Group 1: Urbanization Transition - China's urbanization is shifting from rapid growth to high-quality development, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than speed and scale[2] - The central urban work conference emphasizes a transition from large-scale expansion to improving existing urban quality and efficiency[5] - The focus is on "urban renewal" and "connotative development" rather than large-scale demolition and monetary compensation[3] Group 2: Policy and Implementation - The new urbanization strategy includes six dimensions: innovation, livability, beauty, resilience, civilization, and intelligence[2] - The conference outlines seven key tasks aimed at achieving "intensive and efficient" urban development, emphasizing resource allocation to valuable nodes and industrial chains[7] - The planned pilot for urban village renovations is set at 1 million units, significantly lower than the previous peak of 6 million units per year from 2015 to 2018, indicating a shift in scale and focus[12] Group 3: Financial and Economic Implications - The financing approach for urban renewal will prioritize project cash flow balance and control of hidden debts, contrasting with previous expansive monetary policies[3] - The historical context shows that the previous round of urban renewal led to significant increases in housing prices and local government debt, which the current policy aims to avoid[10] - The emphasis on "quality improvement" suggests that large-scale stimulus policies similar to those from 2015 to 2018 are unlikely to be replicated in the current economic environment[12]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The second China-Central Asia Five Nations Summit held in June 2025 resulted in multiple cooperation agreements, with mineral resources identified as a key area for collaboration [16] - Central Asia's rich mineral resources, combined with low levels of development, present significant investment potential for Chinese mining companies [16][19] - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the market, driven by monetary policy adjustments and geopolitical factors [16] Summary by Sections 1. Central Asia's Mineral Resource Endowment and Development Status - Central Asia is rich in solid mineral resources, with significant reserves of chromium, uranium, gold, and coal, accounting for 48.0%, 13.1%, 7.3%, and 4.2% of global reserves respectively [19] - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan are the five Central Asian countries with diverse mineral resources [19][20] 2. Market Trends: Copper and Aluminum Fluctuations, Strategic Metals Revaluation - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with lithium battery materials experiencing the highest price increases [16] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, making price increases likely [16] 3. Policy Changes: New Mineral Resource Law Implementation - The revised Mineral Resources Law in China, effective July 1, 2025, aims to ensure national mineral resource security [2] - Various countries are intensifying policies for mineral resource protection and development, including significant tariff increases on steel and aluminum products in the U.S. [2] 4. Key Industry and Company Developments - Major mining companies are actively engaging in mergers, acquisitions, and project developments across Central Asia [3] - Notable transactions include Zijin Mining's proposed $1.2 billion acquisition of Kazakhstan's Raygorodok gold mine and other strategic investments in copper and rare metals [3][24][25]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Viewpoints - The all-solid-state battery industry is currently in its initial development stage, with significant challenges related to material and equipment that need to be overcome for mass production [2][36] - The report suggests that the all-solid-state battery may be at a similar stage to the new energy vehicle industry in 2009-2010, characterized by policy catalysis, technology convergence, and supply chain improvement [36] - It is anticipated that small-scale production of all-solid-state batteries may begin around 2027, with large-scale production expected after 2030 [36] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The all-solid-state battery technology has made initial progress, primarily focusing on sulfide electrolytes, but faces significant challenges, particularly with the solid-solid interface [2][10] - The report identifies the solid-solid interface as a critical issue, which is influenced by both material properties and manufacturing processes [10][20] Material Challenges - The main materials for all-solid-state batteries include solid electrolytes, with sulfide electrolytes being the focus. Key challenges include air sensitivity and the need for cost reduction [18] - The cost of lithium sulfide, a core material, is currently high due to limited production capacity, with prices previously at 1000 RMB/g and expected to reach 500,000 RMB/ton as a potential industrialization milestone [18] Equipment and Manufacturing - The report highlights the importance of pressure in both the manufacturing and operational phases of all-solid-state batteries, with specific attention to the need for appropriate stacking pressure to ensure effective ion transport [20][23] - Equipment such as isostatic pressing is crucial for maintaining solid-solid contact during manufacturing, but scalability remains a challenge [23][26] Performance Metrics - The report emphasizes that the core performance metrics for all-solid-state batteries will focus on cycle stability and rate performance, particularly after multiple cycles of use [28] - Current industry standards suggest that single-cell power batteries should achieve a cycle life of 1000-1500 cycles, with a capacity retention rate of at least 80% [27][28]

Group 1: Global Payment System Transformation - The global payment system is diversifying, moving towards a model where stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) play significant roles in domestic and cross-border payments[1] - Domestic retail payments will be dominated by stablecoins or a combination of stablecoins and CBDCs, while wholesale payments will be led by CBDCs[1] - Cross-border retail payments will be primarily driven by stablecoins, with wholesale payments existing alongside traditional systems and multiple CBDC collaborations[1] Group 2: Growth Potential of Stablecoins - The potential market growth for stablecoins in cross-border retail payments could reach $280 billion[2] - Asset tokenization (RWA) could see a potential development scale of $300 billion, driven by the growth of stablecoin market capitalization[2] - Stablecoins are expected to provide two levels of benefits for businesses: investment income from reserve assets and reduced transaction costs due to streamlined value chains[2] Group 3: Applications and Efficiency Gains - Non-stablecoin enterprises can leverage stablecoins to enhance operational efficiency, particularly in supply chain finance and cross-border payroll[3] - Using stablecoins for payroll can simplify cross-border remittance processes and reduce fees, especially when using a stablecoin pegged to the renminbi[3] - Companies can issue tokenized assets linked to stablecoins, improving liquidity and transparency while providing new financing avenues[3] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape and Risks - Stablecoins have been increasingly integrated into financial regulatory frameworks, marking a significant development point for their growth[1][2] - Risks include potential threats to blockchain's encryption foundation from advancements in quantitative computing and delays in stablecoin development due to incidents like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank[5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electrical equipment industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report expresses an optimistic outlook for the energy storage sector, predicting significant growth in installed capacity in China, with a projected increase of 43.7 GW/109.8 GWh in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 103%/136% [1][13] - It argues that the energy storage industry is just beginning its exponential growth phase, with a cumulative grid connection of 42.4 GWh and a tendering capacity of 176.6 GWh in the first half of 2025, showing year-on-year increases of 166%/281% [1][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand assessments and the industry's lifecycle position over short-term growth rates, suggesting that the energy storage market has 8.6 times growth potential before reaching its peak demand [2][10] Summary by Sections 1. Prerequisites for Energy Storage Demand - Energy storage demand arises primarily from two conditions: issues with photovoltaic (PV) consumption and the affordability of energy storage costs [17][25] - The report highlights that the most critical task for energy storage is to address the daily consumption issues of PV energy, especially as PV generation becomes a larger part of the energy mix [18][22] 2. Long-term Demand Forecast for Energy Storage - The report forecasts that global annual new installations of energy storage will peak between 2030 and 2035, with an expected annual addition of 264 GW and a total capacity exceeding 1.5 TWh [2][35] - It notes that the current energy storage penetration rate in China is only 4.9%, indicating significant room for growth as the industry matures [12][45] 3. Importance of Industry Lifecycle Position - The report stresses that understanding the industry's lifecycle position is crucial for investment decisions, as short-term demand predictions can often underestimate growth potential [40][43] - It draws parallels with the solar industry, which has seen consistent growth beyond initial forecasts, suggesting that energy storage may follow a similar trajectory [41][42] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technological leadership in key areas such as electrochemistry, power electronics, and grid support [47] - It also recommends looking for companies with global order acquisition capabilities and those that can expand production capacity internationally to mitigate geopolitical risks [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a key area for mineral exploration, particularly focusing on antimony resources in southern Xinjiang, with significant investments planned for geological exploration projects [1][4] - The report indicates that Xinjiang's three major mineralization belts possess rich mineral resources, with the western Kunlun-Altyn mineralization belt being particularly noted for its antimony deposits [2] - Recent years have seen an acceleration in the granting of antimony mining rights in Xinjiang, with several notable projects underway, including the Huangyangling and Shierkule antimony mines, which are expected to contribute significantly to the region's antimony output [3] Summary by Sections Exploration and Development - The report outlines that during the 14th Five-Year Plan, Xinjiang will continue to prioritize exploration and mining activities, particularly in the Hotan region, aiming to enhance the domestic supply of antimony resources [4] - Specific plans include the establishment of a new mining development framework in Hotan, targeting the discovery of 2-3 medium to large mineral deposits and increasing antimony resources by 50,000 tons during the planning period [4] Market Outlook - The report concludes that as eastern China's antimony resources are rapidly depleting, the westward shift of resources presents a viable alternative for the mining industry, with Xinjiang's favorable geological conditions and rich mineral resources positioning it as a critical base for mineral resources in China [4]