资料来源：Wind [Table_DocReport] 相关研究 投资建议：以险资为代表的中长期资金持续入市，高股息策略逻辑仍然可延 续。公募基金投资风格调整，可能会选择配置主要宽基指数中权重较大且配 置不足的银行股。关注国有大行以及指数权重股。 | [Table_Invest] | | | --- | --- | | 银行 | | | 评级： | 看好 | | 日期： | 2025.06.12 | [Table_Author] 分析师 尤春野 登记编码：S0950523100001 [Table_PicQuote] 行业表现 2025/6/11 -11% -3% 5% 13% 21% 29% 2024/6 2024/9 2024/1 2 2025/3 银行 沪深300 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 银行业 5 月月报：多重利好政策叠加 报告要点 5 月，中证银行指数表现强劲，单月涨幅达到 6.05%，跑赢上证指数 3.96pct， 跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.20pct。 5 月银行板块表现结构性分化明显，农商行领涨。国有大行表现稳健，股份 制银行、城商行、农商行涨跌幅高于国有大行。估值层面看，个股情况分化 ...

矿业巨头启示录系列之三： ——百年基业，必和必拓矿业帝国缔造史 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 联系方式：021-61102510 证券研究报告|行业深度 2025/6/12 有色金属行业 投资评级 看好 Contents 目录 01 02 公司现状，组织架构及主要业务 未来已至，必和必拓如何抢占先机 03 04 资源为王，复盘必和必拓并购扩张史 历史的偶然与必然，必和必拓矿业帝国 缔造启示录 公司现状，组织架构及主 要业务 1.1 必和必拓为全球最大的上市矿企，前三大股东为全球化资产管理公司 图表1：BHP组织架构 贝莱德 7% 道富集团 先锋领航集团 南非政府 澳洲超级年金 …… 6% 5% 4% 4% 澳大利亚矿业 Minerals Australia 南澳大利亚铜业 Copper South Australia 美洲矿业 Minerals Americas BHP Group Limited ASX:BHP (MI KEY: 4121840; SPCIQ KEY: 256654) 覆盖澳大利亚 ...

事件描述 据 ifind，截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日，钼精矿价格达 3840 元/吨度，钼铁价格达 25.01 万元/吨，自 4 月以来价格从底部上涨 19.6%/19.3%，创年内新高。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 钼价创年内新高，短期有望继续上涨 事件点评 [Table_Invest] 有色金属 评级： 看好 日期： 2025.06.11 [Table_Author] 分析师 曾俊晖 登记编码：S0950524100001 ：021-61102510 ：zengjh1@w kzq.com.cn [Table_PicQuote] 行业表现 2025/6/10 -16% -9% -2% 6% 13% 20% 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 2025/3 有色金属 沪深300 钢招需求稳定增长，今年以来单月钢招量均突破万吨。据亿览网消息，2025 年 5 月国内下游钢厂钼铁招标量达 12700 吨，继续突破万吨，2025 年 1-5 月 钢招总量为 6.5 万吨，同比增长 6%，月均钢招量达 1.3 万吨，下游需求保持 高景气。 含钼不锈钢产量大增，船舶及风电需求旺盛。钼主要用于不锈钢、特钢 ...

[Table_Main] 矿业巨头启示录系列之二：跨越时空的 成长，打造一流铜企——FCX 和紫金 报告要点 本篇作为"矿业巨头启示录系列报告"的第二篇，选取自由港（FCX）和紫金 矿业进行分析。我们选取的 2 家公司均属于铜行业的龙头，但所处的阶段有 所不同。紫金作为高速成长的企业，其并购意识、降本文化、培养核心技术等 方面值得我们学习；FCX/PD（FCX"蛇吞象"并购 PD 之后，一举成为最大 的铜企）经历过多轮并购之后，已进入较为成熟阶段，"如何将现有资产利用 最大化"、"如何能从周期性行业波动中屹立不倒"等方面，值得我们深思。 从生命周期来看： 1）发展初期：紫金和 PD 均先深耕本土铜矿。 原业主为何出售？——"抗风险力差"（如前期的过度扩张、资产单一在海 外、国别政策不确定性）、"忽略市场声音、股东出售意愿强"、"原业主有 融资需求"、"铜非原业主主业"、"管理层自身问题"等。 紫金和 FCX/PD 以自有矿山入手，借力"协同效应"，从而绘制"以点到面" 的国内矿业版图。其中，并购扩张的契机包括"顺势而为"（紫金矿业）、"收 购破产同行"（PD）等。 2）步入成长快车道：并购铸就矿业龙头。 从并 ...

[Table_Main] 矿业巨头启示录系列之二：跨越时空的 成长，打造一流铜企——FCX 和紫金 报告要点 本篇作为"矿业巨头启示录系列报告"的第二篇，选取自由港（FCX）和紫金 矿业进行分析。我们选取的 2 家公司均属于铜行业的龙头，但所处的阶段有 所不同。紫金作为高速成长的企业，其并购意识、降本文化、培养核心技术等 方面值得我们学习；FCX/PD（FCX"蛇吞象"并购 PD 之后，一举成为最大 的铜企）经历过多轮并购之后，已进入较为成熟阶段，"如何将现有资产利用 最大化"、"如何能从周期性行业波动中屹立不倒"等方面，值得我们深思。 从生命周期来看： 1）发展初期：紫金和 PD 均先深耕本土铜矿。 紫金和 FCX/PD 以自有矿山入手，借力"协同效应"，从而绘制"以点到面" 的国内矿业版图。其中，并购扩张的契机包括"顺势而为"（紫金矿业）、"收 购破产同行"（PD）等。 2）步入成长快车道：并购铸就矿业龙头。 从并购资产类别来看，FCX/PD 以收购公司为主，收购契机是"在确保自己抗 风险能力较强的情况下，收购破产的竞争对手，从而获得多个棕地矿山资源"； 紫金早期更多偏向以收购单个矿山为主，收购策略主要看 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the industry, indicating an expected overall return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Insights - The launch of the Thunder X3 Pro signifies a technological breakthrough in the AR industry, with advancements in optical solutions and a lightweight design that could redefine user experience and industry standards [2][3][30]. - The X3 Pro features a 0.36cc full-color Micro-LED optical engine, achieving a peak brightness of 6000 nits, which addresses outdoor visibility challenges and enhances color purity [2][20]. - The device's weight of only 76g, which is comparable to regular prescription glasses, sets a new benchmark for comfort in AR devices, potentially driving competition towards lighter designs [3][29]. - The multi-modal interaction system of the X3 Pro allows for seamless user engagement through voice, touch, and gesture controls, significantly lowering the learning curve for new users [4][24]. Summary by Sections Optical Innovations - The X3 Pro utilizes a proprietary "Firefly Optical Engine" and etched waveguide technology, achieving a peak brightness of 6000 nits, which is crucial for outdoor usage [20][23]. - The combination of etched waveguide and full-color Micro-LED technology provides a scalable production model that may influence domestic manufacturers to follow suit [27]. Design and Comfort - The device's lightweight design, achieved through the use of magnesium-aluminum alloy and titanium alloy, enhances user comfort, making it suitable for prolonged use in various settings [3][15]. - The ergonomic design includes adjustable nose pads and curved temples, ensuring a pressure level below 15kPa, which is within the comfort threshold for users [3][15]. Interaction and Usability - The integration of Qualcomm Snapdragon AR1 Gen1 chip enables advanced interaction capabilities, including voice activation and touch controls, facilitating a user-friendly experience [4][24]. - The device supports Bluetooth connectivity with smartphones and smartwatches, expanding its functionality and user engagement [25]. Market Positioning - The pricing strategy for the X3 Pro, starting at 7649 yuan after subsidies, aims to attract a diverse consumer base, enhancing its competitive edge in the AR market [12][26]. - The product matrix includes various models catering to different user needs, reinforcing the brand's market presence and adaptability [26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the industry, indicating an expected overall return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Insights - The launch of the Thunder X3 Pro signifies a technological breakthrough in the AR industry, with advancements in optical solutions and a lightweight design that may push the consumer AR market towards an "ecological critical point" [2][30]. - The X3 Pro features a full-color optical engine capable of producing 16.7 million colors and achieving peak brightness of 6000 nits, addressing outdoor visibility challenges and enhancing user experience [2][20]. - The device's weight of only 76g, a 36% reduction from its predecessor, positions it close to the weight of regular eyeglasses, redefining comfort in AR wearables [3][15]. - The multi-modal interaction system allows for seamless user engagement through voice commands, touch controls, and gesture recognition, significantly lowering the learning curve for new users [4][24]. Summary by Sections Optical Innovations - The X3 Pro utilizes a 0.36cc full-color Micro-LED optical engine and etched waveguide technology, achieving a peak brightness of 6000 nits, which ensures clear visibility even in bright outdoor conditions [2][20][23]. - The combination of these technologies reduces rainbow artifacts by 95%, enhancing display purity and clarity [23]. Lightweight Design - The device's construction employs aerospace-grade magnesium-aluminum alloy and titanium alloy, resulting in a 40% weight reduction while increasing strength by 30% compared to nylon [3][15]. - The ergonomic design minimizes pressure on the face, making it suitable for prolonged use in various scenarios [3][15]. Interaction System - The integration of the Qualcomm Snapdragon AR1 Gen1 chip enables advanced interaction capabilities, including voice wake-up and touch controls, facilitating a user-friendly experience [4][24]. - The device supports Bluetooth connectivity with smartphones and smartwatches, expanding its functionality and user engagement [25]. Market Positioning - The pricing strategy for the Thunder X3 Pro aims to cater to a diverse consumer base, with various models designed to meet different needs, thereby enhancing market competitiveness [26]. - The report suggests that the advancements in the X3 Pro could set new standards in the AR industry, prompting competitors to innovate in materials and technology [27][29].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1][2] Core Insights - The capital market is undergoing comprehensive reforms to deepen investment and financing, with a focus on attracting long-term funds [15][27] - The introduction of DeepSeek has driven a strong rise in Chinese technology stocks, significantly impacting market sentiment and performance [27][85] - The overall performance of listed securities firms has improved, with substantial increases in revenue and net profit [16][22] Summary by Sections 2025 Q1 Performance Review - As of Q1 2025, the total assets of 42 listed securities firms reached 13.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 850 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [16] - The combined operating income for Q1 2025 was 125.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, while net profit rose by 74.93% to 53.46 billion yuan [16] Industry Development Trends - The report highlights the ongoing reforms aimed at enhancing the capital market's stability and investor confidence, with policies to attract long-term investments [70][72] - The trend towards passive investment products, particularly ETFs, is expected to continue, supported by favorable policies [73][84] Business Line Performance - **Brokerage Business**: The brokerage income for Q1 2025 was 32.736 billion yuan, a 43.16% increase year-on-year, driven by a significant rise in trading volumes [38][39] - **Asset Management**: The asset management business generated 10.131 billion yuan in fees, a slight decrease of 3.32% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards a competitive landscape [45] - **Proprietary Trading**: The proprietary trading income reached 48.566 billion yuan, up 51.02% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in the equity market [56] - **Investment Banking**: The investment banking revenue was 6.672 billion yuan, a modest increase of 5.39%, with IPO financing down by 30.24% [61] - **Credit Business**: The credit business saw a net interest income of 7.878 billion yuan, a 27.25% increase year-on-year, as the market for margin trading and stock pledges improved [64] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the overall performance of the brokerage sector is expected to remain positive, supported by economic recovery and liquidity easing [91]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is optimistic [1][2] Core Insights - The capital market is undergoing comprehensive reforms to deepen investment and financing, with a focus on attracting long-term funds [15][27] - The introduction of DeepSeek has driven a strong rise in Chinese technology stocks, significantly impacting market sentiment and performance [27][85] - The overall performance of listed securities firms has improved, with substantial increases in revenue and net profit [16][22] Performance Review of Listed Securities Firms - As of Q1 2025, the total assets of 42 listed securities firms reached 13.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 850 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [16] - The combined operating income for Q1 2025 was 125.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, while net profit rose by 74.93% to 53.46 billion yuan [16] - The top five firms by operating income were CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, China Galaxy, and GF Securities [16] Industry Development Trends - The securities industry is experiencing a significant increase in revenue concentration, with the CR5 for operating income at 41.74% and for net profit at 54.06% as of Q1 2025 [22] - The number of securities practitioners has decreased by 5.83% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement [32] - The management expense ratio for listed securities firms decreased to 47.01%, down 3.48 percentage points year-on-year [32] Business Line Performance - Brokerage business saw a significant increase in income, with net income from brokerage fees rising by 43.16% year-on-year to 32.736 billion yuan [38] - The asset management business faced challenges, with net income declining by 3.32% year-on-year to 10.131 billion yuan [45] - The proprietary trading business reported a 51.02% increase in income, totaling 48.566 billion yuan, driven by a recovering equity market [56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the securities sector is poised for a positive outlook due to economic recovery, liquidity easing, and improving performance metrics [91] - The valuation of the brokerage sector is currently at a PB of 1.25X, indicating potential for valuation recovery [91]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrical equipment industry is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry is showing signs of profit margin improvement, indicating a potential industry turning point [3] - In 2024, China's cumulative installed capacity of power batteries reached 548.4 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 41.5%, maintaining a high growth rate [8][6] - The industry is experiencing a concentration of profits towards the battery segment, with the net profit of the lithium battery and materials industry reaching 61.52 billion yuan in 2024, of which 59.09 billion yuan came from the battery segment, accounting for 96% of the total [12][10] Demand Trends - The cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China for 2024 is 548.4 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.5% [8][6] - The overall demand for lithium battery materials remains robust, with the total sales of power and other batteries in 2024 reaching 1,039.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [8] Supply Trends - Since 2024, there has been a continuous resistance in quantity and price on the supply side, with clearer marginal changes in segments like copper foil [9] - Events such as production cuts and price adjustments in the lithium battery supply chain have contributed to the supply-side dynamics [9] Profitability Indicators - The net profit growth rate for the lithium battery and materials industry turned positive in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 32%, marking the first positive growth since 2023 [12][10] - The profitability of the industry is increasingly concentrated in the battery segment, with the battery segment's net profit margin improving [12][10] Cash Flow Analysis - The overall cash flow in the industry, measured as "cash on hand minus short-term borrowings," has been experiencing negative year-on-year growth, with CATL accounting for approximately 95% of the industry's cash flow [15][17] - As of Q1 2025, the cash flow situation for segments like iron lithium, negative electrodes, and copper foil remains negative [19] Capital Expenditure Trends - In Q1 2025, the capital expenditure in the lithium battery industry showed a year-on-year growth of 6%, marking the first positive growth in nearly two years, primarily driven by the battery segment [20][22] - Excluding CATL, the overall capital expenditure in the industry continues to decline year-on-year, although the rate of decline has narrowed [25] Inventory Levels - The current inventory levels in the industry are considered rational, with the inventory-to-total-assets ratio showing positive year-on-year growth since Q4 2024 [26][27]