有色金属 行业研究/行业周报 证 美联储 3 月维持当前利率，金价续创历史新高 券 ——有色行业周报（2024.03.18-2024.03.22） 研 究 报 ◼ 行情回顾 告 增持( 维持) 截至2024年3月22日，本周（2024.3.18-2024.3.22）有色金属（申万） 指数环比上周涨跌幅为-2.08%，在申万31个一级行业中位列第29位， 行 2024年年初以来总体涨跌幅为4.65%。 行业： 有色金属 业 日期： y 20x2z4q年da0te3m月a2r8k日 研 ◼ 核心观点 究 1、工业金属 分析师： 魏亚军 （1）铜：本周伦铜、沪铜分别报收8847美元/吨、72290元/吨，环比 E-mail： weiyajun@yongxingse c.com 上周分别-2.5%、-1.15%。本周美联储议息会议召开，决议3月维持当 SAC编号： S1760523090004 前利率，但市场对6月降息的预期有所改善，根据CME FedWatch Tools 显示， 5/6 月降息概率分别为 12.28%/75.60%，环比上周分别变化 +5.84pct/+16.76pct。铜价在次日有所反弹，目前步 ...

建筑材料 行业研究/行业周报 证 地产政策边际优化，光伏玻璃持续降库 券 研 ——建材行业周报（2024.3.18-2024.3.22） 究 报 ◼ 核心观点 增持( 维持) 告 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 消费建材：地产市场继续承压，稳地产政策频出，中长期看好地产产 行 业链左侧投资机会。2024年1-2月房地产开发投资累计同比继续下降， 行业： 建筑材料 业 降幅有所收窄，市场信心修复尚需时日；近期稳地产政策频出：2024 日期： y 20x2z4q年da0te3m月a2r6k日 研 年政府工作报告指出，标本兼治化解房地产风险是重中之重，一视同 究 仁支持不同所有制房企合理融资需求是重要抓手；要加快构建地产发 分析师： 黄骥 展新模式以及加大保障性住房建设和供给以满足居民住房需求。央行 E-mail： huangji@yongxingsec. 下调5年期LPR，释放积极信号稳定行业信心，促进房地产市场平稳 com 健康发展；住建部发文，明确实现以人定房，以房定地、以房定钱， SAC编号： S1760523090002 促进房地产市场供需平衡、结构合理，防止市场大起大落。我们认为， 分析师： 李瑶芝 目前仍 ...

电子 行业研究/行业周报 A 证 英 伟达发布 B200，GB200NVLink采用铜缆互连 券 ——电子行业周报（2024.03.18-2024.03.22） 研 究 ◼ 核心观点 报 增持( 维持) 告 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 算力芯片：英伟达B200发布，集成有2080亿个晶体管，算力芯片产 行 业加速发展。英伟达在GTC 2024大会上宣布了全新一代Blackwell架 行业： 电子 业 构人工智能 GPU 芯片 B200。在处理给聊天机器人提供答案等任务 日期： y 20x2z4q年da0te3m月a2r5k日 研 时，B200芯片的速度比上一代芯片快30倍。我们认为，AI推动算力 究 需求攀升，英伟达算力卡迭代加速，相关产业链有望持续受益。 铜缆互连：英伟达首款 Blackwell 芯片采用铜缆连接，铜缆互连产业 分析师： 陈宇哲 链或将受益。GB200NVLink Switch和Spine由72个Blackwell GPU采 E-mail： chenyuzhe@yongxings 用NVLink全互连，具有5000根NVLink铜缆。我们认为，在NVLink ec.com 服务器中铜缆互连方 ...

汽车 行业研究/行业周报 2024 年 3月狭义乘用车零售市场预计约 165万辆，同 证 券 比+3.7% 研 ——汽车行业周报（2024/03/18~2024/03/22） 究 ◼ 行情回顾 报 过去一周(2024/03/18~2024/03/22），申万汽车行业上涨 0.95%，表现 增持( 维持) 告 强于同花顺全 A，所有一级行业中涨跌幅排名第 9。细分板块涨跌 行 幅：过去一周(2024/03/18~2024/03/22），商用车涨幅最大，汽车零部 行业： 汽车 业 件跌幅最大。商用车上涨 2.75%，乘用车上涨 2.69%，摩托车及其他 日期： y 20x2z4q年da0te3m月a2r5k日 研 上涨2.50%，汽车服务上涨1.47%，汽车零部件下跌0.29%。 究 分析师： 王琎 ◼ 核心数据 E-mail： wangjin@yongxingsec. 数据跟踪： com 1）行业总量：据中汽协数据，2024年 2月汽车销量约 158万辆，环 SAC编号： S1760523080002 比-35.1%，同比-19.9%。 2）车企端：据乘联会数据，2024 年 2 月，比亚迪、吉利和长安零售 近 ...

Group 1: Policy Support and Industry Development - The report emphasizes that controlled nuclear fusion is recognized as a strategic emerging industry and is a crucial part of the dual carbon policy, with various government policies supporting its development [37][57]. - Significant investments in fusion technology and power plant construction have been announced by governments in China, the UK, Canada, and the US, indicating a global commitment to advancing fusion energy [59][61]. - The report highlights that the global fusion market is projected to grow from $301.25 billion in 2023 to $496.55 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 7.4% from 2024 to 2030 [38][49]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The report notes that breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting materials are enhancing the commercial viability of fusion energy by reducing construction costs and maintenance for tokamak devices [63]. - Key technological challenges for achieving nuclear fusion include reaching temperatures exceeding 100 million degrees Celsius and maintaining plasma stability for extended periods [49][70]. - The report mentions that significant progress has been made in fusion research in 2023, including record achievements in plasma confinement and tritium recovery efficiency [43][61]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on suppliers of superconducting materials, such as Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Western Superconducting, as well as component suppliers like Antai Technology and Shanghai Electric [49]. - It identifies potential investment opportunities in upstream raw material suppliers, including Xiamen Tungsten and Guoda Special Materials, as the fusion industry expands [49]. - The report indicates that the establishment of a controlled nuclear fusion innovation consortium in China, involving multiple enterprises and research institutions, is a significant step towards advancing fusion energy [49][61].

食品饮料 行业研究/行业点评 预制菜新规颁布，行业迎规范化发展 证 券 ——食品饮料行业点评 研 究 报 ◼ 事件概述 增持( 维持) 告 据人民网及中国政府网，3月21日市场监管总局、教育部、工业和信 息化部、农业农村部、商务部、国家卫生健康委联合印发《关于加强 行 预制菜食品安全监管促进产业高质量发展的通知》。 行业： 食品饮料 业 ◼ 核心观点 日期： y 20x2z4q年da0te3m月a2r4k日 研 此《通知》旨在强化预制菜食品安全监管，促进预制菜产业健康发展， 究 分析师： 夏明达 保障人民群众食品安全，重点聚焦四个方面： 首次在国家层面规范预制菜范围。预制菜也称预制菜肴，是以一种或 E-mail： xiamingda@yongxings ec.com 多种食用农产品及其制品为原料，使用或不使用调味料等辅料，不添 SAC编号： S1760523080004 加防腐剂，经工业化预加工制成，配以或不配以调味料包，符合产品 标签标明的贮存、运输及销售条件，加热或熟制后方可食用的预包装 菜肴，不包括主食类食品，如速冻面米食品、方便食品、盒饭、盖浇 近一年行业与沪深300比较 饭、馒头、糕点、肉夹馍、面包 ...

食品饮料 行业研究/行业周报 春糖开幕，产业端预期理性 证 券 ——食品饮料行业周报（20240311-0315） 研 究 ◼ 核心观点 报 增持( 维持) 告 春糖开幕，产业端预期理性 本周 2024 春糖开幕，据销售与市场、中国经营报、华夏时报及华夏 行 酒报，人流量同比 2023 年可能有所下滑，同时招商氛围呈现分化， 行业： 食品饮料 业 头部大品牌受关注度较高，二线及其他品牌展台招商人气较淡，主要 日期： y 20x2z4q年da0te3m月a2r4k日 研 以客情维护为主。我们认为原因在于（1）本次糖酒会与春节间隔较 究 短（2023年春节 1月，春糖 4月，本次春节 2月，春糖 3月），厂商 分析师： 夏明达 宣发及蓄势时间有所不足（2）当前招商模式多样化，糖酒会招商交 E-mail： xiamingda@yongxings 易功能有所弱化。我们认为中长期可以更乐观，成都机酒订单因会展 ec.com 带动表现亮眼，春糖之于社会层面依然具备人气聚集度和话题热度， SAC编号： S1760523080004 在当前市场环境下春糖的功能有望向沟通交流方向多元化，之于行业 的重要性依旧。元春以来各大酒企 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is deeply engaged in the polyester filament industry, with integrated development supporting growth. It is one of the largest polyester filament producers in China, with a production capacity of 7.4 million tons for filaments and 1.2 million tons for short fibers as of 2023 [2][34]. - The peak of filament capacity expansion is gradually passing, and an industry restructuring is expected. The exit of outdated facilities will alleviate supply pressure, and the industry concentration is likely to increase [2][45]. - The company is investing approximately 20 billion yuan in new material projects to further enhance its scale advantages and improve cost efficiency through product synergy [2][56]. - The company is expanding its overseas refining operations in Indonesia, aiming to establish a platform for diversified development [2][56]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been focused on the polyester filament industry for over 20 years and has multiple projects launched since its listing, achieving a scale of integrated development [34][36]. - As of 2023, the company has a PTA production capacity of 5 million tons, ensuring stable raw material supply for its polyester production [36]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of the filament industry, with projected net profits of 1.063 billion yuan, 1.907 billion yuan, and 2.461 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [3][4]. - The PE ratios for 2024 and 2025 are projected to be 12 times and 9 times, respectively [3]. Industry Dynamics - The report indicates that the peak of capacity expansion in the filament industry is nearing its end, with a significant reduction in supply growth expected [45]. - Domestic demand for polyester filament is supported by the textile industry's recovery, with clothing, home textiles, and industrial textiles accounting for 49%, 34%, and 17% of demand, respectively [49][52]. Competitive Positioning - The company has a strong R&D system and has developed several differentiated products, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [56][61]. - The company’s gross margin for the filament segment has improved, reflecting its successful transition to higher-value differentiated products [43][54].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown a slight upward trend amidst fluctuations, with significant trading volumes. The CPI increased to 0.7%, rebounding by 1.5 percentage points from January's -0.8%. Additionally, February's export growth exceeded Wind's forecast, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for nearly 60% of exports [1][2][52]. - The manufacturing and consumer sectors experienced the largest gains, particularly the automotive industry, which saw the highest increase. Conversely, high-dividend concepts, including coal, oil, home appliances, banks, and utilities, faced the most significant declines, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards fundamental recovery [1][2][52]. - The report highlights that from March 4 to March 8, during the government work report's release, cyclical industries such as oil, non-ferrous metals, and utilities performed well due to anticipated infrastructure investments from special government bonds starting in 2024 [2][52]. Group 2 - For the week of March 18-22, the report suggests that the market will likely maintain a slight fluctuation, with funding sources primarily driven by an increase in financing balances. The net inflow of northbound funds was significant, amounting to 32.8 billion yuan, reflecting confidence in the economic fundamentals [4][21][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies that announce increased dividend amounts compared to previous years, as well as those with unexpectedly high net profit growth in their 2023 annual reports. It also suggests focusing on companies that manage their market value through dividends [16][48]. - In terms of industry selection, the report recommends prioritizing consumer sectors with resilience and certainty, as well as cyclical industries with high dividend yields. It also highlights potential investment themes in the technology sector, particularly in low-altitude economy and biomanufacturing, as mentioned in the government work report [16][48].

社会服务 行业研究/行业点评 证 1-2 月社零同比+5.5%，开年国民经济稳中有升 券 研 ——1-2月社零数据点评 究 报 ◼ 核心观点 增持( 维持) 告 2024年1-2月同比增长5.5%，增速比23年同期增长2.0 pct。据国家 统计局，1-2月份，社会消费品零售总额81307亿元，同比增长5.5%， 行 略高于wind一致预期的5.4%，增速比23年同期上涨2.0 pct；其中， 行业： 社会服务 业 除汽车外的消费品零售额74194亿元，同比增长5.2%，增速比23年 日期： y 20x2z4q年da0te3m月a2r2k日 研 同期上涨0.2 pct。我们认为，国民经济持续恢复向好，随着4-5月节 究 假日旅游出行高峰叠加各项宏观政策发力显效，消费需求有望逐步释 分析师： 彭毅 放，居民消费或将延续回升态势。 E-mail： pengyi@yongxingsec.c om 从消费类型看，餐饮消费增速高于商品零售，服务业增势向好。1-2月 SAC编号： S1760523090003 份，商品零售 71826亿元，同比增长 4.6%；餐饮收入9481亿元，同 分析师： 吴昱迪 比增长 12.5% ...