Trade Data Analysis - In November, China's export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, while the cumulative year-on-year growth from January to November reached 5.4%[4] - November imports decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of negative growth, with a cumulative growth of 1.2% from January to November[4] - The trade surplus in November was $97.44 billion, slightly up from $95.72 billion in the previous month[4] Price and Volume Analysis - Export price index (HS2) stood at 94.8, below 100, while the export quantity index was at 117.3, indicating strong volume despite price pressures[5] - The import price index was 97.6, and the import quantity index was 98.7, both below 100, reflecting declining prices[5] Export Product Structure - From January to November, the export value of electromechanical products grew by 7.0%, accounting for 59.5% of total exports[5] - High-tech product exports increased by 4.9%, making up 24.8% of total exports[5] - Key products included automobiles (15.8% growth), integrated circuits (18.8% growth), and household appliances (14.1% growth) year-on-year[5] Regional Export Structure - In November, exports to the U.S. grew by 8.0%, while exports to the EU increased by 7.2%[6] - Exports to ASEAN countries rose by 14.9%, with significant growth in exports to Singapore (5.7%), Thailand (22.0%), and Vietnam (12.8%) year-on-year[6] Global Economic Outlook - The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3.23% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025, with inflation rates expected to decline[7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may impact global demand recovery, necessitating close monitoring of manufacturing PMI in major economies[7] Investment Recommendations - Continuous negative growth in imports and stable positive growth in exports suggest cautious optimism, but global demand may be affected by external economic factors[8] - Risks include rising global inflation, escalation of de-globalization, and potential obstacles in the Fed's rate-cutting process[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [7] Core Insights - Sam's Club in China has shown impressive performance, with some stores generating annual sales exceeding 4 billion USD (approximately 29 billion RMB) [4] - The retail sector is expected to gradually recover as policies to boost domestic demand and consumption take effect [7] - The e-commerce landscape is evolving, with major platforms focusing on differentiated strategies and core business development [7] Weekly Market Review - The CITIC retail index rose by 3.81% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.36 percentage points [5][17] - The retail sector ranked 8th among 30 CITIC primary industries this week, with supermarkets and convenience stores, comprehensive formats, and department stores showing significant gains of 7.68%, 7.05%, and 5.81% respectively [5][23] Industry Data Tracking - In October, China's total retail sales reached 4.54 trillion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [29] - The online retail sales for the first ten months of the year amounted to 12.36 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [29] - The offline retail sales for the same period were estimated at 29.56 trillion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.67% [29] Industry Dynamics and Major Events - Sam's Club in China is undergoing leadership changes, with Andrew Miles retiring and Jane Ewing taking over [4][48] - Costco reported a net sales figure of 21.87 billion USD for November, a 5.6% increase from the previous year [51] - The number of store renovations by Zhongbai Supermarket is set to reach 81, with several new openings planned [48]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its fundamentals and valuation expectations [2][148]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the smart home sector, focusing on linear drive technology for health-oriented office and smart home products. It operates both domestic and international brands, "Lege" and "Flexispot" respectively [2][16]. - The company has expanded its operations to include public overseas warehouse services, enhancing its logistics capabilities for large items in cross-border e-commerce, with 19 public overseas warehouses globally [2][16]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 39.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.03%, although net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 8.64% due to rising costs [2][24]. - The linear drive market is projected to exceed 5 billion USD by 2024, driven by increasing demand for health office products and smart home applications [2][35][37]. - The company has a robust production capacity of over 2 million units annually, positioning it as a global leader in the linear drive sector [2][81]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2002 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2017. It specializes in health-oriented office and smart home products, with a focus on linear drive technology [2][16]. - The ownership structure is concentrated among the founding couple, ensuring stable control and a strong incentive alignment through stock options and employee stock ownership plans [2][18][22]. Financial Analysis - Revenue has grown significantly from 978 million yuan in 2019 to 3.902 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 59.85%. The growth is attributed to the rise in e-commerce penetration and health consumption trends [2][24]. - The company’s net profit increased from 63.4 million yuan in 2019 to 634 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 112.18% [2][26]. - The company’s gross margin has fluctuated, with a recovery noted in 2023 due to improved operational efficiencies [2][33]. Linear Drive Sector - The linear drive industry is rapidly growing, with applications in health office products, smart homes, and medical devices. The market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing health awareness [2][35][39]. - The company has established a comprehensive value chain, from R&D to sales, enhancing its competitive edge in the linear drive market [2][62][75]. Overseas Warehouse Operations - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan by 2025, with the company benefiting from its established overseas warehouse network [2][100]. - The company has over 10 years of experience in overseas warehouse operations, focusing on large item logistics, which enhances its market position [2][118]. - The company has strategically acquired land for warehouse development, ensuring a sustainable supply of logistics resources [2][131]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 55.48 billion yuan, 65.79 billion yuan, and 76.79 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 42%, 19%, and 17% respectively [2][148]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 14, 12, and 10, which are below the average of comparable companies, indicating a valuation advantage [2][148].

宏观研究/宏观点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 点 评 核心 CPI 连续回升，PPI 开始收窄降幅 ——11 月价格数据分析 ◼ 核心观点 数据：11 月 CPI 环比-0.6 %；同比 0.2 %（前值 0.3 %），连续 10 个月 为正，但连续 3 个月回落。PPI 环比 0.1 %；同比-2.5 %（前值-2.9 %）， 连续 26 个月为负，经历 8 月至 10 月连续的降幅扩大之后出现反弹。 一、11 月 CPI 同比增速比 10 月回落，主要是新涨价因素回落所致。 11 月 CPI 同比增速 0.2%，其中新涨价因素贡献 0.1 %（比 10 月的 0.7 % 有明显回落），翘尾因素的贡献回升至 0.1 %，而此前三个月均为负值。 二、11 月 CPI 食品项同比增速回落，非食品项同比持平，结束此前的 负增长状态，核心 CPI 同比增速连续回升。11 月 CPI 食品项同比 1.0 % （前值 2.9 %），非食品项同比 0.0 %（前值-0.3 %），结束了 9 月与 10 月连续负值的情况。核心 CPI 同比从 9 月的 0.1 %升至 11 月的 0.3 %， 连续 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Views - It is expected that the production of photovoltaic modules in China will decrease by approximately 9.7% month-on-month in December. In November, the operating rate of Chinese enterprises was about 49.6%, with a production decrease of about 1.6%. The total production in November remained above 50GW due to high year-end delivery demand, reduced export tax rates, stabilized module prices, and companies' intention to support prices. The operating rate in December is expected to be around 44.8% [12][13]. - The main reduction in production is from domestic bases of Chinese enterprises, while overseas reductions mainly come from Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Thailand, which have high anti-dumping tax rates. The CPIA previously reported that the component cost is at 0.69 yuan/W, and with the continuous decrease in production in November and December, module prices may be supported [12][13]. Market Review - In the past week, the power equipment industry rose by 0.29%, ranking 30th among all primary industries. The electrical machinery sector increased by 4.96%, while photovoltaic equipment decreased by 2.08% [14][16]. Photovoltaic Industry Data Tracking - As of October, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China reached 181.30GW, a year-on-year increase of 27.17%. In October alone, the newly installed capacity was 20.42GW, a year-on-year increase of 49.93% [23]. - The export value of inverters in October was 659 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 19.03%. However, the total export value of battery modules from January to October was 26.842 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 30.82% [25]. - In November, the domestic production of polysilicon was 133,000 tons, slightly adjusted down from the previous month [29]. Price Observations - The average price of n-type recycled material was 40,300 yuan/ton, down 0.49% month-on-month. The average price of n-type dense material was 36,300 yuan/ton, down 0.27% month-on-month. The average price of n-type granular silicon remained stable at 37,000 yuan/ton [33][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][17]. Core Insights - AI Edge: ByteDance's Doubao has launched the AI smart earphone Ola Friend, which is expected to benefit the related supply chain. The earphone integrates with Doubao's large model and allows users to interact without needing to open their phones [12]. - Huawei Supply Chain: Huawei's Mate70 series has surpassed 6.7 million reservations, indicating strong demand and potential benefits for the related supply chain. All new Huawei devices will feature the native HarmonyOS by 2025 [13]. - Domestic Substitution: The U.S. government has announced new semiconductor export restrictions to China, which may accelerate the domestic substitution process in the semiconductor industry [14]. - Advanced Packaging: The mass production timeline for FOPLP advanced packaging by Innolux has been delayed to mid-2025, but the future development remains optimistic [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - AI Edge: The launch of the Ola Friend earphone is expected to positively impact the supply chain [12]. - Huawei Supply Chain: The Mate70 series has seen significant reservations, suggesting a positive outlook for the supply chain [13]. - Domestic Substitution: New U.S. export restrictions may accelerate domestic semiconductor production [14]. - Advanced Packaging: Despite delays, the importance of advanced packaging is expected to grow [16]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 1.61% from December 2 to December 6, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.16 percentage points [20]. - Among the Shenwan secondary sectors, "Other Electronics II" led with a 3.47% increase, while the semiconductor sector lagged with a 0.45% increase [22]. 3. Industry News - Huawei's Mate70 series has exceeded 6.7 million reservations, indicating strong market demand [34]. - Innolux has announced a delay in the mass production of FOPLP advanced packaging, now expected in mid-2025 [34]. - The U.S. has imposed new semiconductor export restrictions affecting 136 Chinese entities, which may impact the industry significantly [38]. 4. Company Dynamics - Fenghua High-Tech reported a 138.17% increase in net profit year-on-year, focusing on cost reduction and innovation [41]. - Maijie Technology highlighted its capabilities in domestic substitution for power inductors and RF filters [42]. - Shunluo Electronics expressed confidence in the future of tantalum capacitors, emphasizing ongoing R&D efforts [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the media industry [1]. Core Insights - AI Applications: OpenAI launched the official version of o1, which is expected to benefit related sectors. The subscription for ChatGPT Pro is priced at $200 per month, allowing unlimited access to OpenAI's most advanced models [11]. - Gaming: Elon Musk announced that xAI will establish an AI gaming studio, which is anticipated to benefit the related industry chain [11]. - Film and Television: The box office for the 2024 New Year season has surpassed 1 billion, indicating potential benefits for related sectors [11]. Market Review - During the week of December 2-6, the A-share media index rose by 5.29%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.85 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 2.71 percentage points [15]. - The performance of the media sub-sectors from highest to lowest was: Education (9.8%), Publishing (7.54%), TV Broadcasting (6.6%), Advertising (6.59%), Film and Television (5.69%), Digital Media (4.98%), and Gaming (3.09%) [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AI application sector, film and television, and gaming sectors. Recommended companies include Tianxiexiu, BlueFocus, Kunlun Wanwei for AI applications; Wanda Film, Light Media, Bona Film, and Maoyan Entertainment for film and television; and 37 Interactive Entertainment, Kaiying Network, and Gibit for gaming [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [8] Core Viewpoints - The centralized procurement of cochlear implants and peripheral vascular stents by the state is expected to enhance the market share of domestic brands through price competition [4] - Imported medical consumables dominate the procurement volume, with domestic brands holding a significantly lower market share in both cochlear implants and peripheral vascular stents [5] - The centralized procurement is anticipated to facilitate the rapid entry of domestic brands into hospitals, accelerating the pace of domestic substitution and providing opportunities for domestic brands to gain market share [5] Summary by Sections Event - On November 29, 2024, the National Medical Insurance Administration announced centralized procurement for cochlear implants and peripheral vascular stents, covering a three-year procurement cycle with a total procurement volume expected to be three times the first-year agreement volume [4] Market Analysis - In the cochlear implant category, the annual procurement demand is 11,239 units for implants and 10,943 units for speech processors, with domestic manufacturers accounting for 25.90% and 25.67% respectively [5] - For peripheral vascular stents, the annual procurement volume for lower limb arterial stents is 123,449 units, with only 2.37% from domestic brands, while non-lower limb arterial stents have a procurement volume of 101,139 units with domestic brands at 0.12% [5] - The market for peripheral vascular intervention stents is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 11% from 2021 to 2025, reaching approximately 2.1 billion by 2030 [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic brand companies involved in the procurement, such as Xianjian Technology, Xinmai Medical, and Guichuang Tongqiao-B [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [7] Core Viewpoints - The policy clearly supports domestic products with a 20% price deduction, enhancing the competitive advantage of domestic products. The policy specifies that domestic products must be produced within China and meet certain component cost ratios [5] - Multiple policies support domestic medical devices, indicating a trend towards increasing market share for domestic brands in the medical equipment sector [5] Summary by Sections Policy Support - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on December 5, 2024, supporting government procurement of domestic products, which includes medical devices and diagnostic reagents [4] - The policy allows for a 20% price deduction for domestic products in competitive procurement scenarios, which is expected to benefit the domestic supply chain [5] Market Opportunities - The report highlights that many areas of domestic medical devices are still dominated by foreign brands, but with the support of government policies, domestic medical devices are expected to increase their market share [5] - Specific companies to watch in the medical device sector include United Imaging, Kaili Medical, Aohua Endoscopy, and Mindray Medical [6]

宏观研究/宏观点评专题 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 点 评 超常规的逆周期调节 ——12 月 9 日中央政治局会议解读 ◼ 核心观点 一、2024 年下半年以来逆周期调节力度持续升级，集中体现为 12 月 9 日中央政治局会议提出"更加积极的财政政策"、"适度宽松的货币 政策"以及"加强超常规逆周期调节"这三项表述。 （1）7 月 30 日的中央政治局会议指出："宏观政策要持续用力、更加 给力"，要求"实施好积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策"。 （2）9 月 26 日的中央政治局会议指出："要加大财政货币政策逆周期 调节力度"。 （3）12 月 9 日的中央政治局会议指出："实施更加积极的财政政策和 适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强超常规逆周期调节"。 我们认为，其中财政政策的"更加积极"、货币政策的"适度宽松"、 逆周期调节的"超常规"这三项表述相比之前措辞都出现了持续强化。 二、2024 年下半年以来房地产市场与资本市场一直是政策支持重点。 12 月 9 日进一步指出要"稳住楼市股市"，但没有像 9 月 26 日的中央 政治局会议一样给出具体措施。我们认为下一步将在 9 月 ...