Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to remain stable at 3.2% in 2025, consistent with 2024 levels, but below the pre-pandemic 20-year average of 3.8%[7] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine are expected to ease, potentially reducing adverse impacts on the global economy[7] - Trump's potential policy shifts, including tariffs and domestic reforms, could significantly impact global trade and economic growth[9][11] China's Macroeconomic Performance - In 2024, China's economy was driven by strong external demand, with export growth significantly higher than in 2019 and 2023, while domestic demand remained weak[2][15] - Real estate investment and private sector investment were sluggish, with retail sales growth also underperforming, indicating weak domestic consumption[15][17] - China's GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2025, reflecting ongoing economic challenges[8] Policy and Reform Outlook - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference signaled a shift toward more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the economy[38] - Key policy measures include increasing fiscal deficit ratios, issuing long-term special bonds, and implementing targeted monetary easing to support economic growth[38] - Reforms aimed at boosting domestic consumption, stabilizing employment, and enhancing the service sector are critical for 2025's economic recovery[17][32] Risks and Uncertainties - External risks include potential disruptions from Trump's trade policies and global geopolitical tensions, which could negatively impact China's export-driven growth[9][11] - Domestic risks involve weak consumer confidence, a sluggish real estate market, and structural challenges in transitioning to new growth drivers[17][32]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market sentiment continues to weaken, reinforcing the downward trend of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices due to external shocks such as trade friction and high-tech suppression, alongside a policy vacuum period [3][21][31] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 1.33 trillion, with the latest value at 1.36 trillion, down from 1.43 trillion in the previous period, indicating a continuous contraction in trading volume [15][20] - The report recommends the banking sector, specifically stock code 801780.SI, as it maintains an upward trend despite slight reductions in major fund holdings, while other sectors are primarily in a horizontal or downward trend [4][31] Group 2 - In terms of industry valuation, public utilities, social services, and food and beverage sectors are noted to have relatively low valuation percentile levels, while sectors like construction materials, electronics, real estate, and retail have higher valuation percentiles [22][26] - Over the past five trading days, domestic major funds have increased their holdings in the oil and petrochemical, as well as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, while reducing holdings in machinery, pharmaceuticals, TMT, and non-bank financial sectors [27][31] - The report highlights that the banking and home appliance sectors still show an upward trend based on monthly moving averages, while most other sectors are in a horizontal adjustment or downward trend [28][31]

[table_subject] 2025 年 01 月 02 日 证券研究报告·电子行业周报 2024 年小米高端手机销量同比增长 43% ——中山证券电子行业周报 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 市场走势 [table_main] 投资要点： 中山行业研究类模板 ●三季度全球 VR 出货量同比下降 4%。市场调查机构 12 月 27 日发布博 文，报告 2024 年第 3 季度全球 VR 头显出货量同比下降 4%，环比下降 16%，连 续三个季度下滑。报告认为导致下降的主要原因，是 tetheredVR 头显市场同 比下降 50%，相比之下，独立 VR 耳机市场同比增长 14%。 ●2024 年小米高端手机销量同比增长 43%。在"卢伟冰的年度总结"活动 中，小米集团总裁卢伟冰透露，2024 年小米全球高端手机销量已经突破 1000 万部，大概会在 1200 万左右，同比增长 43%。 ◎回顾本周行情（12 月 26 日-1 月 1 日），本周上证综指下跌 1.23%，沪 深300指数下跌1.27%。电子行业表现弱于大市。申万一级电子指数下跌2.72%， 跑输上 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic industry, indicating a recovery in demand and recommending attention to upstream equipment and materials that are relatively independent of the industry cycle [35][43]. Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.01%, although this is a decrease from the previous quarter's growth of 7.58% [10][20]. - In October, China's smartphone shipments were 27.88 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.10%, but an improvement from September's decline of 25.70% [11][41]. - Global semiconductor sales in October amounted to $56.88 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, although this is a slight decrease from September's growth of 23.2% [20][24]. - The semiconductor equipment shipments from Japan saw a significant year-on-year increase of 33.46% in October, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor equipment sector [42]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of December 12-18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.46%, and the electronic industry underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan electronic index declining by 1.76% [7][12]. - The electronic industry ranked eighth among Shenwan's primary sectors, with a PE valuation dropping to approximately 54.78 times [7][12]. Company Developments - Dongshan Precision announced plans for a targeted issuance of A-shares, aiming to raise up to 1.404 billion yuan to optimize its capital structure and reduce financial risks [5][64]. - Broadcom reported a significant increase in AI business revenue, which grew by 220% year-on-year to reach $12.2 billion, contributing to a strong stock performance [12][26]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor market is expected to grow by 15% in 2025, driven by demand from AI and high-performance computing (HPC), with memory segments projected to grow over 24% [55][31]. - The report highlights a recovery in the consumer electronics supply chain, with low inventory levels prompting a strong replenishment drive among domestic brands [20][41].

Group 1 - The report indicates that policy expectations are improving, leading to a rebound in the core stock indices of Shanghai and Shenzhen, despite ongoing trade frictions and technology crackdowns [3][4][44] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is reported at 1.81 trillion, with a slight increase from the previous period's 1.71 trillion, indicating a mild rebound in stock indices [4][38] - The report recommends focusing on the retail trade sector, specifically the stock code 801200.SI, as it has seen increased support from major funds and shows no signs of adjustment [3][4][54] Group 2 - The report highlights that the main stock indices have shown a range of performance over the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.02% and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.18% [30][34] - It notes that the net outflow of major funds over the last five trading days was approximately 37.8 billion, indicating a trend of reduced investment in certain indices [43][44] - The report identifies that sectors such as social services and food and beverage have relatively low valuation percentiles, while sectors like construction materials and machinery have higher valuation percentiles [45][49] Group 3 - The report states that the majority of the Shenwan industry sectors are maintaining an upward trend, with the retail trade sector receiving significant capital inflow [54] - It mentions that the recent five trading days saw a concentration of limit-up stocks primarily in the machinery, media, and computer sectors, with the latest trading day showing a focus on retail trade and construction decoration [52][54] - The report emphasizes that the current market sentiment is improving due to anticipated policy adjustments, including significant interest rate cuts and increased fiscal deficits [4][44]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic industry, indicating a recovery in demand and recommending attention to upstream equipment materials that are relatively independent of the industry's cyclical trends [3][16]. Core Insights - Global semiconductor equipment shipments reached $30.38 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 19% year-on-year increase and a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase [29]. - The global semiconductor sales in October 2024 amounted to $56.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.1% [30]. - The expected growth for foldable smartphone shipments in 2024 is projected at 13% year-on-year, with potential market decline anticipated in 2025 [32]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.02% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.48% during the week of December 5 to December 11, 2024, with the electronic industry outperforming the market [2][7]. - The electronic sector's PE valuation increased to approximately 55.74 times [7]. Industry Data - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in Q3 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.01% [2][12]. - In October, China's smartphone shipments were 27.88 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.10%, although this was an improvement from a previous decline of 25.70% [15]. Industry Dynamics - TSMC plans to begin mass production of 2nm chips next year, with a current trial yield of over 60% [28]. - The semiconductor equipment market is experiencing growth, with Japan's semiconductor equipment shipments increasing by 33.46% year-on-year in October [30]. Company Developments - Hengxuan Technology announced a cash dividend of 0.76 yuan per share for the first three quarters of 2024 [33].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the electronics industry [2][3][4] Core Views - The electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a focus on upstream equipment and materials that benefit from domestic substitution logic, independent of the industry's cyclical fluctuations [4][19] - Android inventory is expected to gradually normalize, suggesting attention to domestic consumer electronics brands [4][19] - Semiconductor design companies are benefiting from downstream inventory replenishment, making them a key area of focus [4][19] Market Performance - The electronics sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index falling 6.09%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.02 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 3.05 percentage points [8] - The sector's PE valuation dropped to approximately 54.93x [8] Industry Data - Global smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 reached 316 million units, up 4.01% YoY [3][15] - China's smartphone shipments in September 2024 were 23.717 million units, down 25.71% YoY [3][18] - Global semiconductor sales in September 2024 were $55.32 billion, up 23.2% YoY [3][18] - Japan's semiconductor equipment shipments in September 2024 increased by 23.40% YoY [3][18] Industry Dynamics - China's consumer-grade XR device sales in Q3 2024 fell 9.2% YoY, with total retail sales of 103,000 units, down 17.9% YoY [2][31] - Middle East smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 grew 2% YoY, reaching 12.2 million units [32] - Latin America smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 increased 10% YoY, reaching 35.1 million units [38] - During the "Double 11" shopping festival, smartphone shipments in China rebounded 26% YoY to 9.5 million units [2][41] Company Dynamics - SMIC reported a 56.4% YoY increase in Q3 2024 net profit, with revenue reaching RMB 15.609 billion, up 32.5% YoY [42] - SMIC's capacity utilization rate improved to 90.4%, with gross margin rising to 20.5% [42] Investment Recommendations - Focus on upstream equipment and materials with domestic substitution potential [4][19] - Pay attention to domestic consumer electronics brands as Android inventory normalizes [4][19] - Semiconductor design companies are recommended due to downstream inventory replenishment [4][19]

Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "stronger than the market" based on the performance of the electronic index relative to the market benchmark index [45]. Core Insights - The global average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year in 2024, reaching $365 [35][36]. - The demand for high-end smartphones, priced over $1000, has surged, with sales increasing by 18% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [36]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with global sales reaching $55.32 billion in September, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase [19][28]. Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.15% during the week of November 7 to November 13, 2024, with the electronic industry outperforming the market [2][7]. - The electronic index increased by 5.7%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.06 percentage points [2][7]. - In Q3 2024, global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units, reflecting a 4.01% year-on-year growth, although this is a decline from the previous quarter's growth rate of 7.58% [17][19]. Industry Dynamics - Moore Threads has completed its transformation into a joint-stock company and is preparing for an IPO, with a capital increase to 330 million yuan [31][33]. - The retail sales of smart devices in China's living room declined by 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total sales amounting to 23.72 billion yuan [34]. - MediaTek reported a 19.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for October 2024, amounting to 51.117 billion New Taiwan dollars [37][38]. Investment Recommendations - The electronic industry is witnessing a sustained recovery in demand, with a recommendation to focus on upstream equipment and materials that are relatively independent of the industry's cyclical trends [20]. - There is an expectation for the inventory of Android devices to gradually normalize, suggesting a focus on domestic consumer electronics brands [20]. - Semiconductor design companies are expected to benefit from downstream inventory replenishment, indicating a potential investment opportunity [20].

Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "stronger than the market" based on the expected performance of the industry index relative to the market benchmark index [22]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a continuous recovery in demand, with a recommendation to focus on upstream equipment materials that are relatively independent of the industry's cyclical trends [3][10]. - The global tablet market saw a significant rebound, with a 20.4% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q3 2024, reaching 39.6 million units [18]. - China's internet enterprises with revenues above a certain scale reported a 2.7% year-on-year growth in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 1,270.3 billion yuan [17]. Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.6% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 3.47% during the week of October 31 to November 6, 2024, with the electronic industry outperforming the broader market [2][4]. - The electronic sector's PE ratio increased to approximately 55.31 times [4]. Industry Data - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.01% [8]. - In September 2024, China's smartphone shipments were 23.7 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 25.71% [9][19]. - Global semiconductor sales in September 2024 amounted to $55.32 billion, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase [9][14]. Company Dynamics - BOE Technology Group reported a net profit increase of 223.8% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching 143.73 billion yuan [19].

Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "stronger than the market" based on the expected performance of the industry index relative to the market benchmark index [23]. Core Insights - The electronic equipment industry in China experienced a revenue growth of 7.5% year-on-year from January to September 2024, with total revenue reaching 1,148.64 billion yuan [1][18]. - In the third quarter, smartphone shipments in mainland China increased by 4% year-on-year, totaling 69.1 million units, driven by seasonal demand [2][19]. - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in the third quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.01%, although this was a slight decline from the previous quarter's growth rate [9][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.11% and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.11% during the week of October 24 to October 30, 2024, while the electronic industry outperformed the broader market with a 1.3% increase in the Shenwan electronic index [2][4]. - The PE ratio for the electronic industry rose to approximately 55.70 times [4]. Industry Dynamics - The global AMOLED smartphone panel shipments grew by 25.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, indicating strong demand in the market [18]. - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with global semiconductor sales reaching 53.12 billion USD in August, marking a 20.6% year-on-year increase [10][18]. - The semiconductor equipment sector also saw growth, with Japan's semiconductor equipment shipments increasing by 23.4% year-on-year in September [10][18]. Company Updates - Wentech Technology reported a turnaround in profits for the third quarter, achieving a net profit of 0.415 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the previous quarter [20]. - Luxshare Precision's net profit grew by 21.88% year-on-year in the third quarter, reaching 3.679 billion yuan [21].