Morgan Stanley
Search documents
OMA 5月交通流量:略高于第二季度预期
Morgan Stanley· 2025-06-06 07:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to OMA, indicating that the stock's total return is expected to exceed the total return of the relevant country MSCI Index over the next 12-18 months [6][33]. Core Insights - OMA's total passenger traffic increased by 6.9% year-over-year (Y/Y) in May, outperforming competitors GAP (+2.9%) and ASUR (-3.0%) in Mexico. Quarter-to-date (QTD) traffic is up 12.7% [2][4]. - International traffic saw a significant increase of 19.5% Y/Y, while domestic traffic grew by 5.1% Y/Y. Notably, Monterrey traffic increased by 17.8% Y/Y [2][10]. - The expected traffic growth for 2Q25 is projected to be around 11% Y/Y, slightly above consensus estimates [3]. Summary by Sections Traffic Performance - In May 2025, Monterrey recorded 1,302,000 passengers, a 17.8% increase from May 2024, while other airports saw a decrease of 4.1% Y/Y [4]. - Total passenger traffic for OMA in May 2025 was 2,354,000, up from 2,202,000 in May 2024 [4]. Market Position - OMA's market capitalization is currently M$95,610 million, with a price target set at US$105.00, compared to a closing price of US$103.21 on June 5, 2025 [6][11]. Valuation Methodology - The price target is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation using an 8.5% weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and assumes all Mexican airport concessions expire in 2048 with no terminal value [11].
Novonesis:诺瓦诺西斯(NSISB):进一步剖析争论-20250606
Morgan Stanley· 2025-06-06 07:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Novonesis with a price target of DKK 577.00, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Novonesis is well-positioned to capture structural growth drivers, which could lead to an EBITDA margin expansion of 120 basis points from 2026 to 2028 [1]. - Concerns regarding the company's sensitivity to oil price volatility and mid-term growth expectations are addressed, with the report suggesting that operational gearing and unique offerings can mitigate these concerns [1][2]. - The report discusses the potential for Novonesis to exceed consensus expectations, particularly in EBITDA margins, driven by conservative volume drop-through assumptions and pricing growth [2][10]. Summary by Sections Growth Expectations - The report highlights a debate on whether Novonesis can surpass consensus expectations, with a focus on margin uplift forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [8]. - It is noted that the company is guiding for a 1% pricing growth, which is crucial for achieving higher margins [9]. Market Dynamics - The report interprets Nielsen data differently, suggesting that technology and innovation are favoring Novonesis in developed markets, while emerging markets are expected to grow at higher rates due to increased penetration and effective market strategies [3][17]. - The growth in bio-energy is discussed, indicating that recent trends show a decoupling from oil price dependence, with corn-ethanol economics being a significant factor for continued growth [4][22]. Financial Projections - Financial projections for Novonesis include expected sales growth from €3,946 million in 2024 to €4,889 million by 2027, with EBITDA increasing from €1,072 million to €1,963 million in the same period [6]. - The report anticipates a net debt of €2,619 million by the end of 2025, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.6 [6].
同程旅行:升目标价至28港元,评级“增持”-20250605
Morgan Stanley· 2025-06-05 09:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tongcheng Travel (00780) [1] Core Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Tongcheng Travel by 8%, from HKD 26 to HKD 28, based on the latest foreign exchange forecasts, while keeping profit forecasts and other key predictions unchanged [1] - The firm anticipates that China's tourism demand will remain strong this year, with consumer spending shifting from shopping to travel or experiences [1] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to continue expanding its market share driven by growth in lower-tier cities, cross-selling opportunities, new business initiatives, and international expansion [1]
昆仑能源:略下调目标价至8.9港元,评级“增持”-20250604
Morgan Stanley· 2025-06-04 09:40
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Kunlun Energy (00135) [1] Core Views - Morgan Stanley slightly lowered the target price for Kunlun Energy by 2.2%, from HKD 9.1 to HKD 8.9 [1] - The update includes a new model incorporating 2024 performance and introduces forecasts for 2027 [1] - The earnings forecast for the company has been reduced to reflect a more conservative outlook on overall industry growth and a decrease in natural gas sales volume growth [1] - Given the increasing concerns about the macro environment, the market is expected to place more emphasis on the stock's defensive characteristics, leading to a slight premium in valuation [1]
Amorepacific中国业务触底回升
Morgan Stanley· 2025-05-24 00:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Amorepacific is Overweight, with a price target of W160,000, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current price of W125,000 as of May 22, 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - Amorepacific's China operations are expected to recover, with an anticipated improvement from a W96 billion loss in 2024 to a W4 billion profit in 2025 [2][6]. - The company plans to ramp up its Shanghai factory to meet increasing customer demand, with a projected 20% year-over-year sales growth in China for Q2 2025 [6]. - The stock price has increased by 8% recently, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding the recovery of sales in China [6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, the expected net revenue is W4,260 billion, with an EBITDA of W660 billion and an EPS of W5,430 [3]. - The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 23.0, with a P/BV of 1.3 [3]. - The return on net operating assets (RNOA) is expected to be 7.7%, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected at 6.0% for the same year [3].
朝日集团控股(2502):近期关键讨论
Morgan Stanley· 2025-05-24 00:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Asahi Group Holdings [6] Core Views - The report suggests that the recent share price adjustment presents a buying opportunity due to strong earnings progress in the first quarter [1][2] - Asahi plans to increase soft drink prices in October, affecting approximately 70% of its products, which is expected to boost annual earnings by ¥5-8 billion [2] - Management remains committed to aggressive shareholder returns and share buyback programs despite potential M&A activities [3] Financial Overview - The price target for Asahi Group Holdings is set at ¥2,400, with the current share price at ¥1,869 [6] - Projected revenues for fiscal years ending December 2024 to December 2027 are ¥2,939.4 billion, ¥2,948.1 billion, ¥3,008.6 billion, and ¥3,077.1 billion respectively [6] - Operating profit estimates are ¥269.1 billion for FY 12/24, increasing to ¥334.2 billion by FY 12/27 [6] - Net income is projected to rise from ¥192.1 billion in FY 12/24 to ¥243.4 billion in FY 12/27 [6] Market Context - The beverage industry is viewed as "Attractive" by the report, indicating positive expectations for performance relative to the broader market [6] - The report highlights a steady recovery in on-premise sales in Australia, with expectations for improved sales channel mix as Asahi moves towards a premium product lineup [4]
中国制药2025年美国临床肿瘤学会(ASCO)摘要初读
Morgan Stanley· 2025-05-23 10:50
Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive [7] Core Insights - The report highlights over 70 oral presentations from Chinese scholars at the 2025 ASCO, including 11 late-breaking abstracts, showcasing advancements in various pharmaceutical developments [1] - Sino Biopharma's combination of Benmelstobart (PD-L1) with anlotinib showed superior efficacy in first-line squamous non-small cell lung cancer (sq-NSCLC) with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 10.12 months compared to 7.79 months for tislelizumab [2] - CSPC's SYS6010 (EGFR ADC) demonstrated preliminary efficacy in advanced gastrointestinal cancers with mPFS of 5.8 months in gastric cancer patients [3] - Kelun Pharma's sac-TMT (TROP2 ADC) achieved a confirmed overall response rate (ORR) of 59.3% in first-line non-squamous NSCLC [4] - Fosun Pharma's HLX43 (PD-L1 ADC) showed an ORR of 31.3% in late-line solid tumors, with competitive results in NSCLC patients [5] Company Summaries Sino Biopharma - The combination therapy of Benmelstobart and anlotinib is expected to release Phase 3 data for first-line NSCLC and maintenance treatment after radiochemotherapy soon [2] - TQB2102 (HER2 bsAbADC) achieved an ORR of 53.4% in late-line HER2 low-expressing breast cancer [2] CSPC - SYS6010 in combination with SYH2051 showed preliminary efficacy for second-line advanced gastrointestinal cancers, with a G3+ treatment-related adverse event (TRAE) rate of 48% [3] - ALMB-0168 (Cx43 agonist) for relapsed/refractory osteosarcoma showed an ORR of 20% and a disease control rate (DCR) of 90% [10] Kelun Pharma - Sac-TMT demonstrated a 70.7% ORR and a mPFS of 13.4 months in first-line triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) [11] - In the third-line EGFR-mutant NSCLC setting, sac-TMT achieved a PFS of 6.9 months compared to 2.8 months for docetaxel [11] Fosun Pharma - HLX43's competitive ORR of 38.1% in NSCLC patients during the dose-expansion phase indicates potential for further development [5]
预览6月2日- 6月6日
Morgan Stanley· 2025-05-23 10:50
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [3] Core Insights - Ferguson is rated Overweight with a price target of $195 and GBp 15,000 [7][10] - The expected organic growth for Ferguson is +1% with an operating margin of 8.3%, in line with consensus [6][8] - For FY25, Ferguson anticipates low single-digit growth in net sales and adjusted operating margin guidance of 8.3-8.8% [9] Summary by Sections Earnings and Events Calendar - Ferguson's 3Q25 results are due on June 3, 2025, with Ashtead's FY25 results following on June 17, 2025 [1] Company Performance Expectations - Ferguson's volume growth is expected to be approximately +3%, offset by a pricing headwind of about -2% due to commodity deflation [8] - The consensus for Ferguson's FY25 group revenues is $30,242 million, implying a +2.0% growth compared to FY24 [9] Valuation and Market Position - Ferguson's shares are trading at a CY25e P/E of approximately 20x, which is slightly above the coverage average but justified by a higher-quality mix [10] - The valuation methodology includes a DCF approach with an 8.0% WACC and a 2% terminal growth rate [12]
中国生物技术2025年美国临床肿瘤学会(ASCO)摘要解读
Morgan Stanley· 2025-05-23 10:50
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [7] Core Insights - The report highlights several promising clinical trial results for various biotech companies, indicating potential best-in-class therapies in oncology and other therapeutic areas [2][3][4][5][6] - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in the biotech sector, particularly in the context of EGFRm+ NSCLC, where DB-1310 faces significant competition [3] - The report provides a detailed analysis of multiple abstracts presented at ASCO, showcasing the efficacy and safety of various drug candidates [6][10] Summary by Relevant Sections Clinical Trial Results - DB-1311 in 3L CRPC shows a median rPFS of 8.3 months, indicating best-in-class potential [2] - DB-1310 in pre-treated EGFRm+ NSCLC demonstrates a uORR of 35.7% and mPFS of 7.0 months, competitive against peer HER3-ADCs [3] - Surufatinib + KN046 in 1L PDAC shows better response and safety, with mPFS competitive against SoC [4] - IBI363 in MSS/pMMR CRC shows consistent ORR and potential best-in-class mDoR of 7.5 months [4] Abstract Reactions - The report includes reactions to select abstracts from ASCO, indicating meaningful upside for DB-1311 and modest upside for DB-1310 [6][10] - IBI363 shows consistent results in immunotherapy-treated acral/mucosal melanoma with a DoR of 14 months [5] - ZL-1310 in r/r ES-SCLC shows an ORR of 68%, demonstrating best-in-class potential [5] Company Ratings - The report provides ratings for various companies in the healthcare sector, with notable mentions including: - 3SBio rated as ++ - Adicon Holdings rated as Overweight - Alibaba Health rated as Overweight [61]
2025年第四季度涂料行业竞争情况更新
Morgan Stanley· 2025-05-23 10:50
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of Equal-weight to Grasim Industries Ltd (GRAS.NS) as of April 12, 2024 [63]. Core Insights - Grasim aims to achieve a double-digit market share in the core decorative business by fiscal year 2026 [6]. - The industry growth for fiscal year 2026 is projected to be in the low single digits due to muted market conditions [6]. - Grasim's luxury and premium products account for over 65% of its revenues across all product categories and sub-brands [6]. - The company has nearly reached its target of 50,000 dealers by fiscal year 2025, with an 80% penetration of tinting machines [6]. - Grasim's Birla Opus brand has achieved a high single-digit revenue market share, with combined market share exceeding 10% for Birla Opus and Birla White [6]. - The company has reached over 21% of industry capacity with five out of six plants operational, with the Kharagpur plant expected to be commissioned in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 [6]. - Management noted that emulsions and waterproofing products are performing well, while enamels are catching up after a delayed launch [6]. - Pricing strategies for fiscal year 2026 will depend on competitive actions, with Grasim believing it offers sufficient value to consumers [6]. Summary by Sections Market Position and Strategy - Grasim's strategy includes adding more dealers and increasing counter share with existing dealers [6]. - The company is focused on maintaining competitive pricing, particularly in the luxury segment, where demand remains strong [6]. Financial Performance - The overall market growth for fiscal year 2025 was low single digits, indicating a challenging environment [6]. - Grasim's management highlighted that the end price for Birla Opus is competitive with other brands, despite competitors reducing prices in the economy segment [6].