May 23, 2025 07:34 AM GMT India Consumer | Asia Pacific 4QF25 Paints: Update on competition Key Takeaways 4QF25 conference call takeaways from Grasim (GRAS.NS, covered by Rahul Gupta) on its paints business. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Update | | May 23, 2025 07:34 AM GMT | | | | | Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ | | | India Consumer Asia Pacific | Sheela Rathi | | | | Equity Analyst | | | 4QF25 Paints: Update on | Sheela.Rathi@morganstanley.com | +91 22 6118-2224 | | | Archana Menon, ...

May 23, 2025 03:55 AM GMT Managed Care | North America Underscoring the PBM Value Proposition: A Look at Recent LLY/NVO GLP-1 Benefit Offerings; Policy Dynamics Leveraging the PBM Toolkit: Yesterday, CI announced its Evernorth business will offer an enhanced benefit offering for GLP-1s, in its pursuit to further bend the drug cost curve and address key pain points for many of its customers. We discussed the latest offerings with CI, and there are two key components: (1) According to the company, CI has nego ...

May 23, 2025 04:01 AM GMT Embodied AI | North America AI Robotics Disruptors: Skild AI A key bottleneck for scaling AI in robotics is a lack of data. You need vision data to train a vision language action (VLA) model. Chatbots train on internet data. Can robots learn by watching YouTube? We profile Skild AI, a startup building general-purpose robotics models leveraging human videos. At a recent dinner party in Rome, I learned how to tie a bow tie by watching a YouTube video (I had to practice a few times be ...

Investment Rating - The biotechnology industry in North America is rated as Attractive [4]. Core Insights - Initial Phase I/II data for Genmab's Rinatabart sesutecan (Rina-S) in advanced endometrial cancer shows an unconfirmed overall response rate (ORR) of 50% for the 100 mg/m² dosing cohort and approximately 45% for the 120 mg/m² cohort, indicating competitive efficacy [3][6]. - Legend Biotech's Carvykti demonstrates promising outcomes in high-risk multiple myeloma (MM) with a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 13 months compared to 4 months for standard of care [12]. - The pipeline updates for DLL3 and Claudin 18.2 programs from Legend Biotech show early efficacy signals, warranting further observation [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Genmab (GMAB) - The report highlights initial data from the GTC1184-01 study, focusing on Rina-S for advanced endometrial cancer, with a median follow-up of approximately 19 weeks [3]. - The safety profile indicates that over 15% of patients required dose reductions, with one Grade 5 event noted [3][7]. - The efficacy signal is considered strong when compared to Merck's TROP2 ADC, which had an ORR of about 34% [3][7]. Legend Biotech (LEGN) - The CART-4 subgroup analysis shows promising outcomes in high-risk MM, with 5-year CART-1 data indicating a functional cure in about one-third of patients [6]. - The ongoing Phase I study of LB2102 in relapsed or refractory small cell lung cancer (SCLC) shows strong tolerability and initial signs of dose-dependent efficacy [10]. - Preliminary results from LB1908 in advanced gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma indicate tumor reductions of 1% to 41% in treated patients [11]. Overall Industry Insights - The report anticipates limited stock impact for both Genmab and Legend Biotech from the ASCO abstracts, with further details expected from full presentations [6]. - The biotechnology sector is viewed positively, with expectations for continued advancements and potential market opportunities [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Kanzhun Ltd is Overweight (OW) [1][67]. Core Insights - Improving recruitment demand is observed in April-May, with expectations for cash billing growth to accelerate from Q2 2025. The limited impact of tariffs on the industry is also noted [1]. - Enhanced operating efficiency and cost control measures are anticipated to contribute to earnings upside in 2025 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Industry View**: The industry is viewed as attractive, with positive indicators for recruitment demand and operational improvements [1]. - **Valuation Methodology**: The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model, utilizing a 12% WACC and a 3% terminal growth rate, reflecting the company's commitment to share buybacks and potential dividends [8]. - **Analyst Stock Ratings**: Kanzhun Ltd is rated as Overweight, indicating that its total return is expected to exceed the average total return of its industry coverage over the next 12-18 months [33][67].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tosoh is Equal-weight [4]. Core Insights - Tosoh has released a new medium-term management plan (MTP) for F3/26-28, targeting an operating profit (OP) of ¥140 billion for the final year, with a guidance of ¥108 billion for F3/26. The previous MTP aimed for ¥150 billion in F3/25, but the actual result was ¥98.9 billion [1][4]. - The company plans to invest between ¥220 billion and ¥250 billion over the next three years, focusing on expanding earnings in high-performance materials and strengthening the revenue base of its chain business [1]. - Tosoh has revised its shareholder return policy, increasing the total return ratio from 30% to 50%, with a dividend per share (DPS) floor of ¥100 and plans for share buybacks if the payout ratio falls below 50%. An additional ¥50 billion is allocated for share buybacks over the next three years [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The operating profit target for F3/28 is set at ¥140 billion, with the previous year's actual result being ¥98.9 billion, indicating a significant shortfall in the chlor-alkali and specialty products businesses [1]. Capital Investment - Tosoh's capital investment plans for the next three years range from ¥220 billion to ¥250 billion, slightly above the previous plan's total of ¥221.8 billion [1]. Shareholder Returns - The company has shifted its shareholder return policy to a total return ratio of 50%, with a DPS floor of ¥100 and plans for share buybacks if the payout ratio drops below 50%. Up to ¥50 billion will be allocated for share buybacks over the next three years [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Corporate Travel Management Limited (CTD.AX) is Equal-weight [2][11]. Price Target - The price target has been updated to A$12.50 from A$11.80 [1][5]. Core Views - The report indicates that after a period of elevated uncertainty, activity in the corporate travel sector has returned closer to business as usual, leading to low-double-digit EPS upgrades for FY25e-27e, although still below consensus [1][11]. - The report highlights that the corporate travel industry is expected to show resilience despite slowing growth, with CTD emerging as a more competitively advantaged business post-COVID-19 [11][20]. - The report notes that the company has improved its competitive position and is well-positioned to gain market share both organically and through acquisitions [11][20]. Financial Estimates - The fiscal year ending estimates for EPS are as follows: FY24 at A$0.80, FY25e at A$0.60, FY26e at A$0.70, and FY27e at A$0.87 [2][19]. - Total Transaction Value (TTV) estimates are projected at A$714 million for FY24 and FY25e, increasing to A$778 million for FY26e and A$843 million for FY27e [15][19]. Valuation Metrics - The valuation metrics include a P/E ratio of 15x for FY26e EPS, which is below the 10-year average of 28x, and an EV/EBITDA of 9x for FY26e EBITDA, also below the long-term average [5][11]. - The report uses a DCF model with a WACC of 11.8% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [5]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the corporate travel sector is expected to rebound, driven by ROI-driven dynamics and market share gains, particularly in the Asia segment [9][10]. - The report also notes that the industry consolidation favors scale players, which benefits CTD [11][20].

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [6] Core Insights - The TLFI (Truck Load Freight Index) has shown a significant positive inflection, marking the fourth consecutive outperformance driven primarily by demand strength, with the supply component also contributing [3][4] - The demand component increased approximately 1,490 basis points compared to its average decrease of around 50 basis points, while the supply component decreased about 430 basis points compared to its average increase of approximately 170 basis points [8] - The MS TLQURE model predicts truck rates to rise to $1.74 in six months and $1.81 in twelve months, with bull and bear case predictions of $2.17 and $1.39 in six months, respectively [2][26] Summary by Sections TLFI Performance - The TLFI has outperformed typical seasonality, with the largest gap above long-term averages observed in 2025 [3] - The Reefer index has also outperformed, while the Flatbed index decreased sequentially but reversed to outperform for the first time in three updates [3][8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand strength is the primary driver of the recent outperformance, with a notable increase in spot rates [3] - The interim China tariff rollback is seen as an opportunity for companies to build inventory, contributing to the current demand surge [3] Market Predictions - The MS TLQURE model forecasts an increase in spot rates over the next six and twelve months, indicating a positive outlook for the trucking industry [2][26] - The sentiment survey indicates a mixed outlook, with 10% of respondents viewing demand as strong, 59% neutral, and 31% weak [138]

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as In-Line [7] Core Insights - The demand for data centers remains strong across multiple utility companies, with significant capital expenditure (capex) opportunities identified [2][3] - Regulatory environments in states like Missouri and Texas are improving, which is expected to support utility growth and infrastructure investments [2][3] - Long-term earnings per share (EPS) growth outlook for New Jersey Resources (NJR) is projected at 7-9%, supported by residential growth and active pipeline replacement programs [4] Summary by Company Ameren (AEE) - Active conversations with data centers and a recent tariff proposal filed in Missouri to ensure regulatory comfort for large loads [2] - Equity needs are met through 2026, with manageable capital requirements following recent storms [2] CenterPoint Energy (CNP) - Continued strong demand for data centers and multiple capex opportunities, including significant projects in Texas [3] - Anticipated guidance refresh in September to reflect new capex opportunities [3] New Jersey Resources (NJR) - Confident in achieving 7-9% long-term EPS growth, with a quiet regulatory agenda expected after recent rate case conclusions [4] - Focus on utility-like earnings in unregulated businesses through stable pricing and long-term contracts [4] Other Companies - Duke Energy (DUK) has high confidence in its data center pipeline and is streamlining interconnection processes [10] - PPL Corp (PPL) is constructive on the regulatory backdrop in Kentucky and has not seen a slowdown in its data center pipeline [12] - Xcel Energy (XEL) has safe harbored renewables in its plans and is on track to achieve data center load growth [14] - Spire (SR) anticipates a potential settlement in its Missouri rate case, which could improve its earnings outlook [21][22]

Investment Rating - Industry View for Media & Entertainment, Telecom & Cable Services, and Communications Infrastructure is rated as In-Line [3][5]. Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of trading multiples across various segments, including Diversified Media & Streaming, Mid-Cap Entertainment & Sport, Mid-Cap Advertising & Film, Telecom & Cable Services, and Communications Infrastructure [6][20]. - Historical performance metrics are included for sub-industries over different time frames, such as 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Months, 12 Months, and 3 Years Year-to-Date [2][6]. Summary by Industry Segment Diversified Media & Streaming - Price to Earnings (P/E) for 2025E is 42.2x, decreasing to 27.3x by 2027E - Adjusted Price/FCF for 2025E is 49.1x, decreasing to 30.9x by 2027E - EV/EBITDA for 2025E is 46.1x, decreasing to 29.1x by 2027E - Dividend Yield is projected at 0.2% for 2025E, increasing to 0.3% by 2027E [6]. Mid-Cap Entertainment & Sport - P/E for 2025E is 57.3x, decreasing to 27.5x by 2027E - Adjusted Price/FCF for 2025E is 40.6x, decreasing to 22.3x by 2027E - EV/EBITDA for 2025E is 56.1x, decreasing to 33.4x by 2027E - Dividend Yield is projected at 1.2% for 2025E, increasing to 1.4% by 2027E [6]. Mid-Cap Advertising & Film - P/E for 2025E is 13.7x, decreasing to 11.7x by 2027E - Adjusted Price/FCF for 2025E is 12.3x, decreasing to 10.7x by 2027E - EV/EBITDA for 2025E is 14.1x, decreasing to 12.5x by 2027E - Dividend Yield is projected at 4.3% for 2025E, increasing to 4.8% by 2027E [6]. Telecom & Cable Services - P/E for 2025E is 14.7x, decreasing to 13.5x by 2027E - Adjusted Price/FCF for 2025E is 14.3x, decreasing to 10.9x by 2027E - EV/EBITDA for 2025E is 15.0x, increasing to 14.1x by 2027E - Dividend Yield is projected at 2.2% for 2025E, increasing to 2.4% by 2027E [6]. Communications Infrastructure - P/E for 2025E is 24.4x, decreasing to 29.0x by 2027E - Adjusted Price/FCF for 2025E is 27.8x, decreasing to 24.2x by 2027E - EV/EBITDA for 2025E is 28.4x, decreasing to 26.0x by 2027E - Dividend Yield is projected at 3.4% for 2025E, increasing to 3.6% by 2027E [6].