证券研究报告|行业深度报告 2024年5月14日 化工行业2023年报及2024Q1总结 ...

2024年05月14日 行业深 度研究 看好 / 维持 行 医药 业 研 究 医药 2024Q1 业绩迎来拐点，板块盈利能力出现修复 ◼ 走势比较 报告摘要 10% 仿制药板块2023年营收净利润稳健增长，2024Q1业绩迎来拐点，板 2% 太 (6%)21/5/32 32/7/32 3/01/32 41/21/32 42/2/42 6/5/42 块 共实盈 现利 营率 业能 收力 入修复 36。 52我 亿们 元统 ，计 同了 比仿 增制 长药 2板 .7块 9%的 ，实85 现家 归公 母司 净(附 利录 润) 3， 12 00 亿23 元年 ， 平 (14%) 同比下降3.22%，扣非归母净利润253亿元，同比增长1.76%。单季度来 洋 (22%) 看，仿制药板块2023Q4业绩承压，2024Q1业绩迎来拐点。2024Q1实现营 业收入943.53亿元，同比增长0.08%，归母净利润102.84亿元，同比增 证 (30%) 长1.85%，扣非归母净利润97.87亿元，同比增长7.17%。2024Q1净利率 券 医药 沪深300 改善，板块盈利能力修复。2023 年仿制药板块毛利率为 50.76%（- ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 出口步入景气阶段，谁将受益？ P3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 一、 中国出口：东盟份额提升，美、香港份额下滑，机电、纺织 产品是主要出口品类 三是我国出口前 7 大品类占比超过 80%。机电、音像设备以及纺织用品等是中国出口主要品 类。 我国出口集中度高，十一个国家地区出口占比近 8 成，美国、东盟、欧盟、香港等地出口占 比居前。从 2020 年以来我国出口各地区的占比均值看，我国出口主要集中在十一个国家地区，占 比达 78%。出口居前的三个国家地区为美国（16%）、东盟（15%）、欧盟（15%），占比超过两位数。 此外，香港（9%）、日本（5%）、韩国（4%）等地出口占比也较高。 对主要国家地区出口的变动趋势看，对美出口从 2020 年 11 月最高点 19.39%下滑至目前 13.13%， 主要原因是美国为对抗通胀开启加息进程，国内需求下滑；我国对香港出口主要是转口贸易，受 美国需求下滑影响，对香港出口占比从 2020 年 12 月 12.17%下降至目 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an upward adjustment [1][12][13] Core Views - The company's performance is currently under pressure, but there is an expectation for demand to improve gradually [1][6] - The company is a leader in the distributed solar storage market and is expected to benefit from industry expansion and demand growth in the long term [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.1%, and a net profit of 850 million, up 31.2% year-on-year [4][8] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.13 billion, a decline of 34.5% year-on-year, and a net loss of 28 million [4][5] - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 30.76%, while it dropped to 19.56% in Q4 2024 [4][5] Sales and Market Dynamics - The company sold approximately 686,300 inverters in 2023, with grid-connected inverters increasing by 15.4% year-on-year, while energy storage inverters decreased by 32.2% [5] - The company has expanded its market presence, selling products in multiple countries including Germany, Australia, and Italy, indicating a potential recovery in demand as inventory levels normalize in Europe [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 9.05 billion, 11.96 billion, and 14.60 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 32.1%, and 22.1% respectively [7][8] - The expected net profit for 2024 is 710 million, with a projected PE ratio of 25.23 [8]

Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral rating for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious outlook for the sector in the short term while highlighting potential opportunities for leading companies in the future [2]. Core Insights - The report summarizes the performance of 40 sample bond-issuing real estate companies in 2023, noting that short-term performance is under pressure, but quality leading firms are expected to have better prospects [2][38]. - The overall revenue of the sample companies improved year-on-year, with a total revenue of 3.09 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.3% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies totaled 1028.43 billion yuan, representing a decline of 27.6%, but the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous year [13]. - The gross profit margin for the sample companies was 19.02%, down 1.47 percentage points from the previous year, indicating continued pressure on profitability [16]. - The operating cash flow net amount for the sample companies reached 4240.72 billion yuan, a significant increase of 192.5% year-on-year, showing improved cash flow management [19]. - The average asset-liability ratio, excluding advance receipts, was 68.36%, a slight decrease from the previous year, while the average net debt ratio increased to 96.29% [28]. - Total sales for the sample companies decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 387.26 billion yuan, with only 15 companies reporting positive growth [34]. Summary by Sections Profitability - Revenue improved year-on-year, with leading state-owned enterprises performing better [9][11]. - The decline in net profit has slowed, particularly for leading state-owned enterprises [13]. - The gross profit margin continues to decline, indicating further compression of profit space [16]. Cash Flow - Companies are focusing on cash flow safety, with significant improvements in operating cash flow [19]. - Investment cash flow outflows decreased by 23.25%, reflecting reduced investment expenditures [21]. - Financing cash flow outflows expanded significantly, indicating a tightening financing environment [25]. Liabilities - The average asset-liability ratio decreased slightly, while the net debt ratio saw a minor increase [28]. - The average financing cost decreased by 29 percentage points to 4.33%, with state-owned enterprises having lower costs compared to private firms [32]. Sales Performance - Overall sales decreased, but leading state-owned enterprises showed relatively better performance [34]. - The report highlights specific companies with notable sales performance, including those with high equity sales ratios [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading state-owned enterprises with healthy debt levels and improving cash flows are likely to emerge stronger post-cycle adjustment [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the last closing price of 102.69 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated robust growth in its 2023 annual report and 2024 Q1 report, solidifying its leading position in the industry [1][10]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 72.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 79.5%, and a net profit of 9.44 billion, up 162.7% year-on-year [7][11]. - The company continues to innovate in product development, particularly in high-power string inverters and energy storage systems, which are expected to maintain its competitive edge [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **2023 Financials**: - Revenue: 72.25 billion, up 79.5% YoY - Net Profit: 9.44 billion, up 162.7% YoY - Gross Margin: 30.36%, up 5.8 percentage points YoY - Net Margin: 13.3%, up 4.1 percentage points YoY [7][11][12] - **2024 Q1 Financials**: - Revenue: 12.61 billion, up 0.26% YoY - Net Profit: 2.1 billion, up 39.1% YoY - Gross Margin: 36.7%, up 8.7 percentage points YoY [7][11]. Business Segment Performance - **Inverter Segment**: - In 2023, inverter revenue reached 27.65 billion, a 61% increase YoY, with a shipment volume of 130 GW, up 68.8% from 2022 [8]. - **Energy Storage Segment**: - Energy storage revenue was 17.8 billion, a 75.8% increase YoY, with a global shipment of 10.5 GWh, maintaining the top position among Chinese companies for eight consecutive years [9]. - **New Energy Development**: - Revenue from new energy development reached 24.7 billion, a 113% increase YoY, with significant growth in household and commercial photovoltaic installations [9]. Future Projections - The company is expected to continue benefiting from industry demand growth, with projected revenues of 87.32 billion, 106.16 billion, and 122.62 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 20.86%, 21.57%, and 15.51% [10][11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 10.81 billion, 12.53 billion, and 14.03 billion, with growth rates of 14.51%, 15.93%, and 11.92% respectively [10][11].

公司点评 业绩同比大增，海内外基地持续发力 P3 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|-------|--------|--------|--------|--------|----------------|--------|------------|---------|--------|--------| | 资产负债表（百万） 利润表（百万） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 货币资金 | 810 | 1,119 | 1,923 | 3,373 | 5,178 | 营业收入 | 4,120 | 5,064 | 7,328 | 9,515 | 11,411 | | 应收和预付款项 | 918 | 1,250 | 1,806 | 2,344 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, particularly the raw material drug sector, indicating a potential industry turning point in Q2 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The raw material drug sector showed significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q1 2024, with expectations for demand recovery in Q2 2024 due to the expiration of key product patents and the end of inventory destocking phases in overseas markets [3][15]. - The sector's revenue for Q1 2024 was 296.88 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.56%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.59% [8][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was 37.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.52% [10][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Performance - In 2023, the raw material drug sector achieved total revenue of 1,097.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%. The quarterly breakdown shows revenues of 298.55 billion yuan in Q1, 283.62 billion yuan in Q2, 258.58 billion yuan in Q3, and 256.83 billion yuan in Q4 [8][14]. - The sector's net profit for 2023 was 85.64 billion yuan, down 40.08% year-on-year, with significant quarterly losses in Q4 [9][12]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for the raw material drug sector in 2023 was 36.42%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 7.82%, down 4.83 percentage points [16][18]. - In Q1 2024, the gross margin was 36.38%, a year-on-year decline of 0.82 percentage points but an increase of 1.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net margin improved to 12.78%, up 0.73 percentage points year-on-year and 18.32 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [16][18]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the raw material drug sector is currently facing increased competition and declining product prices, leading to pressure on performance. However, the valuation of the sector is at historical lows, with a PE ratio of 25.40 as of Q1 2024, which is at the 8% historical percentile [33][35]. - The top 10 companies in the sector contributed 73.01% of total revenue in Q1 2024, with significant contributions from companies like Xinhecheng and Puluo Pharmaceutical [22][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance certainty in the formulation sector, such as Aorite and Aoxiang Pharmaceutical, as well as those with high new product business ratios or aggressive capacity expansions [3][15].

Investment Rating - Buy/Maintain rating for Sailun Tire (601058) [1] Core Views - Sailun Tire's performance is strong, with significant revenue and profit growth in 2023 and Q1 2024 [1] - The company is accelerating its global expansion strategy, with record-high tire production and sales [1] - "Liquid Gold" tires and non-road tires are key drivers of high-end product development and profitability [1] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: RMB 25,978 million, up 18.61% YoY; net profit: RMB 3,091 million, up 132.07% YoY [1] - Q1 2024 revenue: RMB 7,296 million, up 35.86% YoY; net profit: RMB 1,034 million, up 191.19% YoY [1] - 2023 tire production: 58.64 million units, up 35.71% YoY; sales: 55.79 million units, up 27.07% YoY [1] - Q1 2024 tire production: 17.25 million units, up 49.77% YoY; sales: 16.58 million units, up 43.71% YoY [1] Profitability and Margins - 2023 gross margin: 27.64%, up 9.22 pct YoY; net margin: 12.33%, up 5.81 pct YoY [1] - Q1 2024 gross margin: 27.68%, up 7.36 pct YoY; net margin: 14.39%, up 7.52 pct YoY [1] Capacity Expansion - Planned annual capacity: 26 million all-steel radial tires, 103 million semi-steel radial tires, and 447,000 tons of non-road tires [1] - New projects in Cambodia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Qingdao Dongjiakou expected to further expand capacity [1] Product Development - "Liquid Gold" tires: Superior performance, increasing market influence through social media promotion, and successful testing with multiple automakers [1] - Non-road tires: Comprehensive product range, high-quality, and partnerships with leading global and domestic machinery companies [1] Financial Forecasts - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: RMB 4,156 million, RMB 4,958 million, and RMB 5,580 million, respectively [2] - 2024-2026 PE ratios: 13x, 11x, and 10x, respectively [2] - 2024-2026 revenue growth forecast: 21.59%, 17.20%, and 10.72%, respectively [3] - 2024-2026 net profit growth forecast: 34.45%, 19.28%, and 12.55%, respectively [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: RMB 1.26, RMB 1.51, and RMB 1.70, respectively [3] - 2024-2026 ROE forecast: 20.41%, 19.58%, and 18.06%, respectively [5] - 2024-2026 ROA forecast: 9.59%, 9.07%, and 8.41%, respectively [5]

2024年05月14日 行 业周报 看好 / 维持 行 医药 业 研 究 医药 勃林格殷格翰创新疗法早期临床结果积极，用于治疗 DMI  走势比较 报告摘要 10% 市场表现： 2% 太 (6%)51/5/32 62/7/32 6/01/32 71/21/32 72/2/42 9/5/42 0.682 p0 c2 t4 ，涨年 跌5 幅月 居申13 万日 3， 1医 个药 子板 行业块 第涨跌 16幅 名- 。0. 各72 医%， 药跑 子输 行沪 业深 中，30 线0 下指 药数 平 (14%) 店(+1.30%)、医疗设备(+0.32%)、医疗研发外包（+0.18%）表现居前，体 洋 (22%) 外诊断(-2.31%)、其他生物制品(-2.10%)、疫苗(-1.95%)表现居后。个股 方面，日涨幅榜前3位分别为新天地(+19.97%)、富祥药业(+10.32%)、双 证 (30%) 成药业(+10.09%)；跌幅榜前 3 位为东宝生物（-10.72%）、通化金马(- 券 医药 沪深300 10.02%)、康惠制药(-9.96%)。 股  子行业评级 份 行业要闻： 近日，勃林格殷格翰发布了在创新疗法B ...