2025 年 01 月 07 日 行业周报 看好/维持 医药 医药 Oculis 在研疗法 OCS-05 二期临床成功 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/1/8 24/3/21 24/6/2 24/8/14 24/10/26 25/1/7 ◼ 子行业评级 | 化学制药 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 中药生产 | 无评级 | | 生物医药Ⅱ | 中性 | | 其 他 医 药 医 | 中性 | | 疗 | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 报告摘要 市场表现： 2025年1月7日，医药板块涨跌幅-1.36%，跑输沪深300指数2.08pct， 涨跌幅居申万 31 个子行业第 31 名。各医药子行业中，医院(+0.28%)、医 疗耗材(-0.39%)、其他生物制品（-0.40%）表现居前，血液制品（-2.66%)、 医疗设备(-1.91%)、医药流通（-1.51%)表现居后。个股方面，日涨幅榜 前 3 位分别为赛托生物(+14.18%)、热景生物(+12.73%)、荣丰控股 (+9.97%)；跌幅榜前 3 位为海尔生物（-10.80%）、奥翔药业(-9.96%)、常 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the current market conditions [1][5][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.88% growth in Q3 2024, driven by strong external sales, with total revenue reaching 49.67 billion yuan [4][5]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 3.43 billion yuan, reflecting a stable performance despite a slight decline in gross margin [4][5]. - The domestic small home appliance market is gradually recovering, while the overseas market shows robust demand, indicating a positive outlook for the company [5][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 126.90 billion yuan, up 17.99%, and a net profit of 7.85 billion yuan, up 6.66% [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 20.87%, down 2.23 percentage points, while the net margin was 7.11%, down 0.94 percentage points [4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic sales for the first three quarters were 25.75 billion yuan, down 1.25%, while external sales reached 101.14 billion yuan, up 24.15% [4][5]. - The company is expanding its product matrix and launching new high-quality products, including coffee machines and other small appliances [5][12]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.00 billion yuan, 12.35 billion yuan, and 14.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.35 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.73 yuan [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to decrease from 11.02 in 2024 to 8.65 in 2026, indicating potential value appreciation [5][6].

买入/首次 飞科电器(603868) 目标价: 昨收盘:41.02 飞科电器：24Q3 盈利能力环比修复，期待博锐+微信小店赋能 2025 年 01 月 06 日 公司点评 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/1/8 24/3/20 24/5/31 24/8/11 24/10/22 25/1/2 ◼ 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 4.36/4.36 总市值/流通(亿元) 178.68/178.68 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 54.88/32 证券分析师：孟昕 E-MAIL：mengxin@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524020001 研究助理：赵梦菲 E-MAIL：zhaomf@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030006 研究助理：金桐羽 E-MAIL：jinty@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124030010 事件：2024 年 10 月 30 日，飞科电器发布 2024 年三季报。2024 年 前三季度公司实现收入 33.21 亿元（-16.85%），归母净利润 4.65 亿元（- 4 ...

2025 年 01 月 06 日 行业周报 看好/维持 医药 医药 默沙东将以 5 亿美元收购药明海德爱尔兰疫苗工厂 ◼ 走势比较 ◼ 推荐公司及评级 报告摘要 市场表现： 2025年1月6日，医药板块涨跌幅+1.32%，跑赢沪深300指数1.48pct， 涨跌幅居申万 31 个子行业第 1 名。各医药子行业中，线下药店(+3.21%)、 医药流通(+2.23%)、体外诊断（+1.56%）表现居前，血液制品（-0.53%)、 医院(-0.29%)、医疗设备（+0.55%)表现居后。个股方面，日涨幅榜前 3 位 分别为金石亚药(+20.05%)、振东制药(+19.95%)、上海凯宝(+16.53%)； 跌幅榜前 3 位为河化股份（-10.02%）、双成药业(-9.98%)、上海谊众（- 8.74%)。 行业要闻： 1 月 6 日，药明海德（WuXi Vaccines，药明生物专注于疫苗 CDMO 业 务的全资子公司）宣布，公司就其爱尔兰疫苗工厂与默沙东达成协议。根 据协议，默沙东将收购药明海德在爱尔兰的疫苗工厂，总交易金额约为 5 亿美元，本次交易预计将在 2025 年上半年满足惯例交割条件完成。 （来源：药明 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical industry, with an investment rating of "Buy" for several companies [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing the quality of the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the advancements in HR+ breast cancer treatment [1][4]. - It discusses the shift towards oral SERD (Selective Estrogen Receptor Degrader) drugs in the treatment of HR+ breast cancer, emphasizing the need for new treatment options due to the emergence of resistance in existing therapies [5][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for multiple companies, including Junshi Biosciences, Hualing Pharmaceutical-B, and others [3]. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 5.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.39 percentage points. Sub-sectors such as medicinal packaging and blood products performed relatively well, while medical infrastructure and pharmacies lagged [6][35]. Company Dynamics - Notable companies mentioned include: - Junshi Biosciences: Buy - Hualing Pharmaceutical-B: Buy - Aorite: Buy - Tonghe Pharmaceutical: Buy - Yangguang Nuohuo: Buy - Hongbo Pharmaceutical: Buy - Fuyuan Pharmaceutical: Buy - Sanofi Pharmaceutical: Buy - Jinxin Pharmaceutical: Buy - Gongtong Pharmaceutical: Hold - Yifan Pharmaceutical: Buy - Nocera Health: Buy - Nossig: Buy - Aoxiang Pharmaceutical: Buy - Kelun Pharmaceutical: Buy - Guobang Pharmaceutical: Buy - Laikai Pharmaceutical-B: Buy - Baili Tianheng: Buy - Yifang Biotechnology: Buy [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs with differentiation and overseas expansion potential. It highlights the recovery of market sentiment in the innovative drug sector and recommends companies like Laikai Pharmaceutical and Hualing Pharmaceutical-B for their promising data catalysts and business development expectations [6][35]. Research and Development Insights - The report discusses the clinical advancements in HR+ breast cancer treatment, particularly the use of AI (aromatase inhibitors) and the emerging role of SERD drugs in addressing resistance issues. It notes that 20%-40% of patients may develop ESR1 mutations leading to resistance against AI treatments [5][22][27]. Market Trends - The report indicates that the expiration of patents for key products from 2023 to 2026 could lead to a significant increase in demand for raw materials, with an estimated sales impact of $175 billion, representing a 54% increase compared to previous years [7][36]. Regulatory Changes - The report emphasizes the importance of recent regulatory reforms in the pharmaceutical and medical device sectors, which are expected to drive high-quality development in the industry [1][4]. Clinical Trials and Innovations - The report highlights ongoing clinical trials for oral SERD drugs in combination with CDK4/6 inhibitors, with results expected as early as 2025. This combination is seen as a promising strategy for treating HR+ breast cancer [28][32]. Conclusion - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on investment opportunities, market dynamics, and the impact of regulatory changes on future growth [1][4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the basic chemical industry [1] Core Views - The profitability of third-generation refrigerants continues to improve, while the inventory of polyester filament has significantly decreased [1][5] - The 2025 refrigerant quotas have been announced, with a substantial reduction in second-generation refrigerants and a slight increase in third-generation refrigerants, which is expected to sustain high industry prosperity [5] - Key companies to watch include Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Yonghe Co., Ltd. [5] Summary by Sections 1. Key Industry and Product Tracking - The profitability of third-generation refrigerants remains strong, with the production quota for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) set at 163,600 tons for 2025, a decrease of 49,600 tons year-on-year. In contrast, the quota for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) is set at 791,900 tons, an increase of 43,400 tons year-on-year [3][4] - As of January 5, the profitability for R22 is 21,527.78 CNY/ton, R142b is 1,072.29 CNY/ton (up 154 CNY/ton), R125 is 22,897.36 CNY/ton (down 229 CNY/ton), R32 is 26,442.13 CNY/ton (up 490 CNY/ton), and R134a is 25,839 CNY/ton (up 505 CNY/ton) [4] - The inventory of polyester filament has decreased significantly, with the POY market average price at 7,100 CNY/ton (up 150 CNY/ton), FDY at 7,550 CNY/ton (up 150 CNY/ton), and DTY at 8,300 CNY/ton (up 50 CNY/ton). The total inventory stands at 452,300 tons, down 37.19% from the previous week [4] 2. Detailed Sector Tracking - In the polyurethane sector, TDI prices have seen a slight increase, while MDI prices remain stable. The average price for TDI in East China is 13,150 CNY/ton, up 100 CNY/ton from last week [19] - In the agricultural chemicals sector, the price of monoammonium phosphate has decreased, while diammonium phosphate profitability has improved. The price of monoammonium phosphate is 2,988 CNY/ton (down 46 CNY/ton), and diammonium phosphate is 3,541 CNY/ton (unchanged) [21][24] - The report notes that urea prices have declined to 1,678 CNY/ton (down 70 CNY/ton), while potassium chloride prices are at 2,517 CNY/ton (up 0.04%) [25]

银行行业|行业深度研究报告 证券研究报告 2025年1月7日 行业深度研究报告 —— 2025年银行业策略：红利、风险改善、顺周期驱动对冲息差压力 夏芈卬 证券分析师： S1190523030003 分析师登记编号： 王子钦 研究助理： S1190124010010 一般证券业务登记编号： P2 报告摘要 ➢ 24年总结：板块超额收益明显，红利属性居核心 1）经济面：24年宏观经济呈现"上强、中弱、下稳"趋势，9月后向好趋势开始显现；今年一季度后投资增速放缓，投资 端承压下社会融资需求持续收缩，今年1月后社融增量累计同比增速始终维持0下运行，11月社融增量累计同比为-12.62%。 2）行情面：申万银行指数涨幅居首，年初至今涨幅达34.39%，前期主要受红利属性带动，"924"新政后则由顺周期β带 动；各板块存在阶段性差异，不同特质造成表现分化；上海银行、沪农商行等强区域、高分红的城农商行涨幅居前，中期 分红具备行情强化作用。 ➢ 基本面分析：盈利继续承压，息差是最大制约 1）业绩归因：今年前三季度上市银行营收、归母净利润合计4.3、1.7万亿元，同比-1.0%、+1.4%。盈利最大支撑项为规模， 规模因素带 ...

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医药 | 行业策略 证券研究报告 2025年度医药行业投资策略—— 穿越风雪，奔赴山海 证券分析师：谭紫媚 分析师登记编号：S1190520090001 证券分析师：张 懿 分析师登记编号：S1190523100002 研 究 助 理 ：李啸岩 一般证券业务登记编号：S1190124070016 2025年1月5日 报告摘要 ◼ 行情回顾：医药行情较为低迷，风险集中释放后观察到积极变化 ◼ 投资策略：甄选产业趋势，建议重点关注以下三条主线 P 2 ➢ 回顾2024年，医药板块受到合规整顿活动、医保基金控费、内需消费乏力、美国生物安全法案等多重因素扰 动，板块阶段性承压：中信医药指数全年下跌12.83%，跑输沪深300指数27.52pct。 ➢ 中长期维度来看，板块调整已超4年，估值消化相对充分：截至2024/12/31，中信医药PE（TTM，剔除负值） 为26.38X，板块估值溢价率为114.48%，分别达到17.60%、2.30%的历史分位。 ➢ 幸运的是，我们已经看到整顿/集采/法案等多项压制因素趋缓，叠加全链条支持创新药、设备招投标边际恢 复、探索多元化支付路径、并购促进供给侧升级、海外投融资回暖等积极 ...

机械行业 证券研究报告 |策略报告 2025/1/5 机械行业2025年度策略报告—— 大国图强，制造先行 张凤琳 S1190523100001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 崔文娟 S1190520020001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 报告摘要 机械行业2024年复盘。机械行业2024年涨幅18.04%，在31个一级行业中排名第15，处于中间水平。 细分板块看，2024年涨幅前三的子板块分别为轨交设备、出口链、核心零部件，分别上涨38.6%、 34.6%、29.5%。报表端，目前上市公司已披露到2024三季报，从602家机械上市公司加总合计来看，收 入同比增长5.34%、归母净利润同比下降2.83%，总体表现并不理想。不过结构性的依然有利好在积蓄， 我们总结了三点结构性变化，循着这三点形成了2025年的投资策略。 需求环境看，内外需均在筑底阶段。受地缘政治冲突、贸易摩擦等负面因素影响，24年全球的制造业 需求环境较为低迷，各国已纷纷出台政策已应对。内需在国家政策有力支持下率先企稳，制造业PMI 已连续3个月位于荣枯线上方，25年随着更加积极有为的财政政策的实施，预计将继续平稳向好。海外 各经济体面 ...