2025 年 01 月 05 日 行业周报 看好/维持 机械 铁路客货发送量持续增长，看好轨交设备景气持续 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/1/5 24/3/17 24/5/28 24/8/8 24/10/19 24/12/30 相关研究报告 证券分析师：崔文娟 电话：021-58502206 E-MAIL：cuiwj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190520020001 证券分析师：张凤琳 电话： E-MAIL：zhangfl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523100001 报告摘要 行情回顾 本期（12 月 30 日-1 月 5 日），沪深 300 下跌 5.2%，机械板块下跌 8.1%， 在所有一级行业中排名 22。细分行业看，叉车跌幅最小，下跌 1.1%；3C 设备跌幅最大，下跌 11.8%。 本周观点 铁路客货发送量持续增长，看好轨交设备景气持续。 根据国铁集团工作会议，2024 年铁路建设成效显著，全国铁路完成固定 资产投资 8506 亿元、同比增长 11.3%；国家铁路完成旅客发送量 40.8 亿 人、同比增长 10.8% ...

2025 年 01 月 04 日 行业周报 看好/维持 医药 医药 国务院办公厅印发《关于全面深化药品医疗器械监管改革促进医 药产业高质量发展的意见》 ◼ 走势比较 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/1/3 24/3/16 24/5/28 24/8/9 24/10/21 25/1/2 ◼ 子行业评级 | 化学制药 | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 中药生产 | 无评级 | | 生物医药Ⅱ | 中性 | | 其 他 医 药 医 | 中性 | | 疗 | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 报告摘要 市场表现： 2025年1月3日，医药板块涨跌幅-1.16%，跑输沪深300指数0.02pct， 涨跌幅居申万 31 个子行业第 6 名。各医药子行业中，血液制品(-0.33%)、 疫苗(-0.45%)、体外诊断（-0.56%）表现居前，线下药店（-2.94%)、医 疗研发外包(-2.23%)、医院（-2.21%)表现居后。个股方面，日涨幅榜前 3 位分别为普利制药(+10.36%)、罗欣药业(+10.03%)、葫芦娃(+10.00%)； 跌幅榜前 3 位为开开实业（-10.02%）、双成 ...

皖通高速，拟购买路产，叠加宣广改扩建完工，增厚 25 年业绩 走势比较 (10%) 6% 22% 38% 54% 70% 24/1/2 24/3/1524/5/2724/8/8 24/10/2025/1/1 皖通高速 沪深300 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 总市值/流通(亿元) 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 16.59/11.66 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 274.5/192.91 | | | | | | | | 18.5/10.86 | | 2025 年 01 月 03 日 公司点评 增持/首次 相关研究报告 皖通高速(600012) 目标价: 昨收盘:16.55 证券分析师：程志峰 电话：010-88321701 E-MAIL：chengzf@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190513090001 ■ 事件 近期，皖通高速披露 ...

行 业 研 究 化学制药 无评级 中药生产 无评级 生物医药Ⅱ 中性 其 他 医 药 医 疗 中性 2025 年 01 月 02 日 行业周报 看好/维持 医药 医药 吉利德 Lenacapavir 在华获批上市 ◼ 走势比较 报告摘要 (30%) (18%) (6%) 6% 18% 30% 24/1/2 24/3/1524/5/2724/8/8 24/10/2025/1/1 医药 沪深300 ◼ 子行业评级 E-MAIL：zhouyua@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523060002 证券分析师：张崴 E-MAIL：zhangwei@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524060001 市场表现： 2025年1月2日，医药板块涨跌幅-2.22%，跑赢沪深300指数0.69pct， 涨跌幅居申万 31 个子行业第 19 名。各医药子行业中，血液制品(-0.67%)、 医疗耗材(-1.94%)、医疗设备（-2.05%）表现居前，疫苗（-3.69%)、医 院(-2.65%)、体外诊断（-2.64%)表现居后。个股方面，日涨幅榜前 3 位 分别为双成药业(+9.98%)、开开实业(+8 ...

Economic Indicators - China's December manufacturing PMI stands at 50.1%, slightly below the expected 50.3% and previous value of 50.3%[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 52.2%, exceeding expectations of 50.2% and the previous month's 50.0%[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing PMI has been above the expansion threshold for three consecutive months, with December's value at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[10] - New orders index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.0%, indicating a marginal improvement in demand[10] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 2.2 percentage points to 52.2%, marking a significant rebound and the highest level since April 2024[16] - The service sector's business activity index increased by 1.9 percentage points to 52.0%, reflecting broad-based improvements across 17 out of 21 surveyed industries[17] Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index fell to 48.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, while the factory price index decreased to 46.7%, down 1.0 percentage points, indicating ongoing price pressures[26] Employment and Production Dynamics - The production index for December is at 52.1%, down 0.3 percentage points, while the new orders index shows an increase, suggesting a narrowing gap between supply and demand[21] - The employment index remains below the expansion threshold at 48.1%, indicating continued pressure on job growth in the manufacturing sector[9] Policy Impact - The report highlights that existing policies and new measures have positively influenced domestic demand, supporting overall manufacturing expansion[10] - The construction sector's business activity index surged to 53.2%, up 3.5 percentage points, driven by policy support and seasonal factors[31]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for the chemical pharmaceuticals and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, while the biopharmaceutical sector is rated as Neutral [1][2]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector showed a decline of -1.91% as of December 31, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.31 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sub-industries in the Shenwan classification [4]. - The report anticipates that the overall return of the industry will exceed the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [9][14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance was -1.91%, with blood products (-1.16%), medical devices (-1.40%), and medical consumables (-1.67%) performing better, while vaccines (-3.22%), hospitals (-2.84%), and medical research outsourcing (-2.57%) lagged behind [4]. - Top-performing stocks included Guangji Pharmaceutical (+9.96%), Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (+6.20%), and Kaikai Industrial (+4.39%), while the worst performers were Jiutian Pharmaceutical (-10.12%), Wohua Pharmaceutical (-9.98%), and Peking University Pharmaceutical (-9.09%) [4]. Company News - Sanofi's BTK inhibitor Rilzabrutinib has been accepted for market application in China, which is a reversible covalent BTK inhibitor that may reduce off-target side effects [17]. - Nearshore Protein (688137) announced a share buyback for employee stock ownership plans, totaling 350,337 shares at a price range of 28.75-33.00 CNY per share [17]. - Tiantan Biological (600161) reported positive results from a Phase III clinical trial for a recombinant human coagulation factor VIIa, showing effective treatment for hemophilia A/B patients [17]. - Fuyuan Pharmaceutical (601089) received approval for clinical trials of a new drug for primary hypertension [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [3][10]. Core Insights - The company has announced a stock incentive plan aimed at middle management and key personnel, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects for the next two years. The plan includes granting 1.2846 million restricted shares at a price of 10.62 CNY per share, which is about 0.91% of the total share capital [10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and net profit growth, with targets set for 2025 and 2026. The revenue targets are set at no less than 1.389 billion CNY and 2 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of at least 40% and 44% [10]. - The outdoor sports supply chain industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the company positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of TPU products over PVC. The company has a leading advantage in manufacturing outdoor products using TPU materials [10]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 1.391 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 40%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 1.967 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 41% [7]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 275 million CNY, with a growth rate of 46%, and for 2026, it is expected to be 378 million CNY, with a growth rate of 37% [7]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be 1.95 CNY for 2025 and 2.67 CNY for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.08 and 8.80 [7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the wind power industry, highlighting significant growth potential in both onshore and offshore wind installations, particularly in emerging markets [1][12]. Core Insights - The global onshore wind installation capacity is expected to grow from 106 GW in 2023 to 146 GW by 2028, with a CAGR of 7%. Regions such as the Middle East and Africa are projected to see a CAGR of 39% from 2024 to 2028 [1][13]. - Offshore wind installations are anticipated to increase from 11 GW in 2023 to 66 GW by 2033, with a CAGR of 20%. Europe and Asia-Pacific (excluding China) are expected to contribute significantly to this growth [1][13]. - Wind power companies are accelerating their international expansion, which is expected to enhance profitability. Key components such as submarine cables and wind turbines are showing signs of recovery in profit margins [1][14]. Summary by Sections Wind Power Industry - The report indicates that domestic wind turbine bidding has reached a historical high, with a total of 127 GW bid in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 108.14%. Onshore wind bids accounted for 118.21 GW, while offshore wind bids were 8.79 GW [12][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Single 30" policy for offshore wind power, which is expected to drive further growth in the sector [1][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are accelerating their international expansion and those that are likely to benefit from the recovery in profit margins. Specific areas of interest include submarine cables for offshore wind, turbine manufacturers benefiting from price increases, and component suppliers like pipe piles and castings [1][14]. Industry News - The report highlights recent developments in the electric vehicle sector, including CATL's plans to issue H shares and EVE Energy's collaboration with a group client in the Americas. In the photovoltaic sector, it notes the low-price bid results from Guoneng Bazu and the termination of Xinte Energy's A-share listing application [1][10][11].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" and maintained, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% over the next six months [10]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's SU7 has achieved over 130,000 deliveries, competing strongly with Tesla's Model 3, with production capacity exceeding 20,000 units per month since Q4 2024 [7]. - The new SUV model, Xiaomi YU7, is set to launch in mid-2025, aiming to challenge the best-selling Model Y [7]. - Xiaomi has invested over 13 billion in core technology development, with over 1,000 patents granted, focusing on intelligent driving, battery systems, and smart chassis [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights Xiaomi's significant achievements in production and delivery, with a strong sales network established across 58 cities [7]. Company Performance - Xiaomi's SU7 has surpassed its initial delivery targets, reflecting robust demand and operational efficiency [7]. - The company is actively expanding its sales network, having opened 200 stores [7]. Technological Advancements - Xiaomi is developing advanced technologies such as a fully active suspension system and a new four-motor system for enhanced vehicle performance [7]. - Innovations include industry-first technologies like the dual-piston electronic brake caliper, enabling a digital cockpit without a steering wheel [7].

汽车 OpenAI o3 加速智驾 VLA 事件：近期，OpenAI 推出新的推理系列模型 o3 和 o3-mini ，接近 AGI 的 AI 模型拥有真正的通用推理能力，有望加速智驾 VLA。 接近 AGI 的 AI 模型加速智驾 VLA。传统自动驾驶系统分为感知、规 划、定位和决策等多个模块，端到端架构则强调"感知决策一体化"，提 高智驾能力上限。o3 具备更先进、近似人类的推理能力，在代码编写、 数学竞赛和掌握人类博士级别的科学知识等方面，均超越了 o1，自动驾 驶开始真正依靠人工智能而不是详尽的地图绘制和编码来取得进步。端到 端可全面实现拟人高效决策升级。全 AI 网络架构高效传递信息，端到端 是一体化的模型，信息都在模型内部传递，具有更高上限，用户所能感受 到的整套系统的动作、决策都"更加拟人"；一体化模型可在 GPU 里一 次完成推理，且端到端延迟更低，车辆动作响应及时。 以端到端+VLM 为例，将智驾系统分为系统一（快系统）和系统二（慢 系统）。 系统 1（快系统）经历了三个进化阶段：第一代为 NPN 架构，包 含感知、定位、规划、导航、NPN 等模块，支撑了理想汽车 100 城城市 NOA 推 ...