Industry Overview - Djibouti's economy rebounded in 2023 with GDP growth estimated at 6.7%, driven by increased demand for port and logistics services from Ethiopia [17] - The volume of goods handled in Djibouti's ports increased by 14% in 2023 compared to 2022, with Ethiopian demand accounting for 80% of the total volume [31] - The number of containers handled in Djibouti's ports exceeded 890,000 units in 2023, a 36% increase from the previous year [31] Economic Performance - Inflation stabilized at 3.8% in December 2023, down from a peak of 11% in June 2022, due to government measures and a slowdown in global oil and food prices [17] - The service sector remained the leading contributor to GDP, contributing 4.6 percentage points in 2023, while the secondary sector contributed 1.6 points [37] - Private consumption and investment were sustained by government support measures and the resumption of public works projects [39] Public Finances - Djibouti's budget remains under pressure due to increased tax exemptions, which reached 19% of GDP in 2022, reducing tax revenues to 11.4% of GDP [17] - The budget deficit widened to 1.9% of GDP in 2023, driven by increased capital expenditure and rising interest payments [45] - Public debt reached 67% of GDP in 2023, with state-guaranteed debt of public enterprises accounting for 76% of the total [53] External Sector - Djibouti's current account balance improved in 2023, with a surplus of over 32%, driven by increased exports of goods and services [17] - The trade balance recorded a surplus of nearly 80 billion DJF, a 64.5% year-on-year increase [17] - Ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea have led to a 39% increase in container volume handled at Djibouti's port in March 2024 compared to November 2023 [17] Monetary Sector - Djibouti's currency board coverage remains adequate, with gross foreign assets falling by 14.7% in 2023 to USD 496 million [62] - The banking sector showed resilience, with an increase in credit to the private sector and a significant reduction in non-performing loans [17] - International reserves have decreased by 14.7% compared to the previous year, reflecting cash flow tensions [17] Medium-Term Outlook - Annual GDP growth is expected to average 5.1% from 2024 to 2026, supported by foreign trade and major public works projects [17] - Risks to the medium-term outlook include fiscal deterioration, regional tensions, and climate shocks [7] - Djibouti's growth model faces vulnerabilities, including heavy dependence on global maritime transport and exposure to regional conflicts [17]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The CEMAC region shows a human capital index ranging from 0.27 to 0.46, indicating that residents achieve between 25% and 50% of their potential [1] - Significant disparities exist within countries, particularly between urban and rural areas, which can be addressed through strategic spending [1] - The report emphasizes the need for increased investment in education, health, and social assistance to strengthen human capital [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Cameroon - The human capital index varies from 0.31 to 0.32 in the East and North-West regions, while the South-West region scores 0.46 [2] - Geographical disparities are evident, with the East, North-West, Adamaoua, and Far North regions performing significantly worse than the Centre, North, Littoral, West, South, and South-West regions [2] Chad - The human capital index ranges from 0.26 to 0.28 across most regions, with N'Djamena scoring the highest [7] - Southern regions face major health challenges, indicated by low survival rates to age 5 [7] Central African Republic - The human capital index is uniform, ranging from 0.28 to 0.30, with the capital Bangui scoring 0.37 [11] - The number of years of schooling in Bangui is significantly higher than in other regions [11] Republic of Congo - The human capital index varies from 0.37 in Likouala and Kouilou to 0.54 in Pointe-Black, with a national average of 0.46 [15] - The Sangha region has the lowest survival probability to age 5 at 88% [15] Recommendations - Prioritize investment in disadvantaged regions to reduce inequalities [17] - Improve access to health and education services through social safety nets [17] - Collect more regional data on human capital dimensions, particularly in Equatorial Guinea and Gabon [17]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Port Community System (PCS) is a digital platform that enhances the efficiency, security, and reliability of maritime trade and logistics operations by facilitating information exchange among various stakeholders [43][36] - The PCS has evolved from basic communication systems in the 1980s to sophisticated digital platforms today, driven by the need for real-time information sharing and integrated logistics [44][45] - The implementation of PCS is crucial for enhancing trade capacities, especially for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which rely heavily on international trade [48] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The PCS represents a pivotal development in maritime trade facilitation, enabling seamless information exchange and collaboration among port stakeholders [36] - The study aims to bridge the knowledge gap regarding PCS functionalities and benefits, contributing to sustainable maritime trade facilitation [37] Concept and Global Evolution of the PCS - PCS facilitates the exchange of information among port stakeholders, reducing administrative burdens and improving supply chain visibility [43] - The PCS has undergone significant transformation, evolving into cloud-based platforms that support real-time data sharing [44] Global PCS Adoption Landscape and Trends - The study analyzed PCS implementation in over 897 ports, revealing that most functional PCSs are in high-income countries, while low- and middle-income countries lag behind [46][47] - Countries like the UK, France, and Japan lead in PCS adoption, while emerging markets like India and Chile are making strides in trade facilitation [47] The Positive Impact of PCS - PCS implementation leads to cost reductions, increased efficiency, and improved compliance in port operations [53] - Enhanced visibility and transparency through PCS facilitate better supply chain management and reduce the risk of fraud [58] Building Blocks for Successful Implementation - Successful PCS implementation requires a detailed blueprint covering governance, financial models, and technical architecture [64] - Technical capacity and expertise are essential for developing a roadmap and ensuring stakeholder buy-in [65] Enabling Environment - Securing appropriate funding is vital for PCS development, with costs varying significantly based on port size and complexity [66][68] - Revenue generation can come from government financing, transaction-based user fees, or subscription models [69][70]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - The report highlights the adaptation mechanisms of poor households in Côte d'Ivoire facing price shocks, emphasizing the negative coping strategies adopted due to increased food and energy prices, which have led to heightened financial and food insecurity [12][18][27] - It notes that the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated the economic challenges faced by these households, leading to a rise in poverty levels [12][18][44] - The findings indicate that the impacts of price spikes are not gender-neutral, with women bearing a greater emotional and financial burden, while children face increased risks of school dropout and child labor [12][28][44] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the trend of poverty reduction in Côte d'Ivoire, noting a decrease in the poverty rate from 39.5% in 2018 to 37.5% in 2021, but highlights that this progress has been uneven across urban and rural areas [18][40] Negative Coping Mechanisms - Poor households have adopted various negative coping strategies, such as reducing food consumption, selling assets, accumulating debt, and relying more on traditional medicine [12][23][24] - The report emphasizes that these strategies can lead to a downward spiral into deeper poverty, amplifying vulnerabilities to future shocks [27][51] Gendered Impacts - The report details how the economic crisis has differentially affected household members, with women experiencing increased domestic burdens and men facing unemployment [28][44] - Children, particularly girls, are at risk of early pregnancy and school dropout due to the economic pressures [28][32] Building Resilience - Factors that can help build resilience among poor households include participation in safety net programs, access to informal finance, and formal employment [12][32] - The report suggests that targeted policies are necessary to protect vulnerable households from the adverse effects of price shocks [12][32] Conclusions - The report concludes that multisector efforts are needed to strengthen the resilience of poor Ivorians to current and future economic shocks, emphasizing the importance of protecting human capital and ensuring income-generating activities [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Social protection interventions are crucial for achieving the World Bank Group's Gender Strategy (2024-2030), promoting women's access to jobs, assets, financial inclusion, and entrepreneurship, while also addressing gender-based violence (GBV) and harmful social norms [3][6][14] - Despite progress, nearly half of the global population lacks adequate social protection coverage, with women and girls disproportionately affected due to structural gender inequalities [3][7][47] - Recommendations include expanding gender-smart programs, leveraging "cash-plus" approaches, enhancing women's access to finance, and engaging the private sector in gender-responsive practices [3][14][47] Summary by Sections The Role of Social Protection in Accelerating Gender Equality - Social protection is recognized as a tool to address poverty, vulnerability, and inequality, particularly in advancing gender equality and empowering women and girls [6][14] - The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated gender inequalities, with significant impacts on women's economic participation and increased rates of GBV [12][39] Boosting Women and Girls' Human Capital and Addressing GBV - Social assistance is effective in reducing gender inequalities, enhancing women's economic empowerment, and improving access to services [17][19] - Cash-plus programs, which combine cash transfers with complementary measures, have shown positive impacts on gender inequalities and GBV [17][22] Expanding and Enabling Economic Opportunities for Women - Economic inclusion programs are essential for boosting the income and assets of the poorest individuals, with a strong focus on women's empowerment [26][27] - Programs targeting women's economic inclusion have demonstrated effectiveness in improving various dimensions of empowerment, even in fragile contexts [27][28] Building Resilience through Adaptive Social Protection - Adaptive social protection is vital for building resilience against crises, with a focus on women and girls in fragile, conflict, and violence (FCV) settings [39][40] - The report highlights the need for targeted interventions to address gender-based inequalities and barriers in FCV environments [39][43] Challenges to Scaling Up Social Protection's Gender Equality Impacts - Persistent gender gaps in social protection coverage necessitate expanded investments in gender-responsive social protection [47][49] - Structural inequalities, such as lower labor force participation rates and higher informal employment among women, contribute to these gaps [47][49]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or countries analyzed. Core Insights - Economic growth in Albania is projected to remain robust at 3.3 percent in 2024, driven by private consumption, tourism, and construction [6][11] - Armenia's economy expanded by 6.5 percent in H1 2024, with growth expected to moderate to around 4.5 percent in the medium term [13][21] - Azerbaijan's growth rose to 4.3 percent in H1 2024, supported by the non-hydrocarbon sector, but is expected to hover around 2.5 percent in the medium term due to declining oil production [24][30] Summary by Sections Albania - The GDP for Albania in 2023 was reported at 23.0 billion USD, with a GDP per capita of 8,300.4 USD [6] - The international poverty rate stands at 11.3 percent, while the upper middle-income poverty rate is at 34.2 percent [6] - Key challenges include a declining population, poor labor quality, and rising fiscal pressures [7] - The employment rate reached 66.7 percent by the end of 2023, with a poverty rate decline to 21.7 percent [8][10] - Inflation averaged around 2.7 percent in Q1 2024, with a fiscal surplus reported as of July 2024 [10][11] Armenia - Armenia's GDP in 2023 was 24.1 billion USD, with a GDP per capita of 8,053.0 USD [13] - The international poverty rate is not specified, but the upper middle-income poverty rate is at 51.3 percent [13] - The economy has shown resilience with a 10.5 percent average annual growth rate in 2022-2023, but growth is expected to slow due to reduced net exports [14] - The unemployment rate rose to 15.5 percent in Q1 2024, influenced by refugee inflows [15] - Inflation fell to 0.3 percent deflation during January-July 2024, prompting a reduction in the policy rate [15][20] Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan's GDP in 2023 was not specified, but the GDP per capita was reported at 7,134.4 USD [24] - The economy's reliance on hydrocarbons poses a vulnerability, with growth driven by the non-hydrocarbon sector [25] - The fiscal balance recorded a surplus of 10.3 percent of GDP in H1 2024, although hydrocarbon revenues fell [26] - Inflation decreased to 1.1 percent in June 2024, with a cut in the policy rate to support economic stability [26][30] - The trade surplus narrowed to 11.5 percent of GDP in H1 2024, with exports declining due to lower oil prices [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Western Balkans region, but it indicates a moderate acceleration in economic growth, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook for investment opportunities [26]. Core Insights - Economic growth in the Western Balkans is projected to accelerate to 3.3 percent in 2024, up from 2.6 percent in 2023, driven by stronger domestic demand and expansionary fiscal policies [26][27]. - The region's labor market is improving, with employment reaching a historical high of 48.5 percent in June 2024, although challenges such as labor shortages and skills mismatches persist [26][27]. - The current account deficit is expected to widen to 5.6 percent of GDP in 2024, influenced by sluggish growth in key trading partners and a decline in net services export inflows [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview - The Western Balkans economies are navigating a complex environment, with growth expected to rely more on domestic demand than foreign demand in 2024 [26]. - Economic growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies, rising credit availability, and easing price pressures, leading to increased consumption and investment [26][27]. 2. Growth Acceleration - Growth in 2024 is forecasted to be 3.8 percent for Serbia, 3.4 percent for Montenegro, and 2.8 percent for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Kosovo also projected to grow at 3.8 percent [26][30]. - North Macedonia is expected to struggle with growth projected at 1.8 percent, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [26]. 3. Employment Trends - The labor market saw the creation of 114,000 jobs between mid-2023 and mid-2024, with Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina leading in job gains [26][27]. - Despite improvements, Kosovo's employment rate remains low at 37.1 percent, highlighting regional disparities [26]. 4. Poverty Reduction - Poverty reduction continues but at a slower pace, with an estimated annual decline of about 1 percentage point [26][27]. 5. Fiscal Policies - The average fiscal deficit for the WB6 is expected to increase to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2024, with Serbia maintaining its deficit level while Montenegro experiences the highest increase [27][28]. - Public debt is projected to rise slightly as a share of GDP, driven by increased spending pressures and capital investments [27]. 6. Inflation Trends - Inflation rates have decreased, with regional averages showing a decline from 4.4 percent to 3.2 percent by July 2024, although some countries still report higher rates [27][28]. 7. Financial Stability - Credit growth rebounded in 2024, reaching 9.4 percent in June, with Albania and Kosovo showing significant increases [27][28]. 8. External Sector Dynamics - The current account deficit is expected to widen, with Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia projected to experience the most significant increases [28][29]. 9. Growth Outlook - The growth outlook indicates a shift towards consumption and investment as key drivers, with export demand remaining muted [28][29]. 10. Spotlight on Migration - Migration remains a significant issue, with nearly one in four people from the Western Balkans residing abroad, impacting labor markets and economic dynamics [29].

Industry Overview - The Western Balkans region, comprising Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, is highly vulnerable to climate change, with cities facing increased risks from extreme weather events such as floods, heatwaves, and droughts [16][17] - Urban areas in the region are particularly affected, with more than half of the population residing in cities that are experiencing rapid urbanization and demographic shifts, including population decline in smaller cities and growth in larger ones [16][31] - The region's cities are characterized by low population density, isolated housing units, and inadequate infrastructure, which exacerbate the risks posed by natural disasters and climate change [16][31] Climate Change Impact on Cities - The frequency of extreme heat events in Western Balkan cities has increased significantly, from 0.09 months per year in the 1990s to 1.32 months per year in 2011-2020, while extreme cold events have declined [44][47] - Both extreme dry and wet weather events have been on the rise since the 2000s, with the average number of extremely dry months increasing from 0.05 in the 1970s to 0.24 in 2011-2020 [51][52] - Cities in the region are more susceptible to natural hazards than their counterparts in the broader Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, with heat stress, water stress, floods, and wildfires being the primary contributors to climate risk [54][55] Urban Development and Emissions - Urban sprawl in the Western Balkans has led to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and air pollution, with cities like Niš, Novi Sad, Pristina, and Sarajevo exhibiting unplanned growth patterns that exacerbate these issues [80][81] - Green and blue spaces in cities act as carbon and pollution sinks, but urban sprawl and soil sealing have reduced these areas, negatively impacting the carbon and pollution footprint of cities [82][84] - Poor waste management is a significant issue, with illegal dumpsites and poorly managed landfills contributing to methane emissions and worsening climate hazards such as wildfires [72][74] Resilience and Infrastructure Challenges - Cities in the Western Balkans face significant challenges in building resilience to climate change due to inadequate infrastructure, poor service provision, and high exposure to hydro-climatic hazards [79][92] - Informal settlements in the region are particularly vulnerable to climate risks, with poor-quality buildings and a lack of adaptation infrastructure increasing the risk of flooding, urban heat, and landslides [97][99] - The region's centralized but siloed approaches to disaster preparedness leave cities largely unprepared for large-scale disasters, with limited funding and capacity to address climate-related risks [105][107] Pathways for Sustainable Urban Development - To promote green, resilient, inclusive, and competitive cities, the report suggests revising zoning and land-use regulations, encouraging mixed-use development, and investing in sustainable mobility [19][20] - Nature-based solutions, such as green and blue strategies, are recommended to mitigate climate risks and improve the well-being of vulnerable communities [19][20] - Inclusive pathways involve community engagement, partnership building, and citizen empowerment to address inequality and promote social equity, while competitive pathways focus on private sector involvement and capital mobilization to drive economic growth [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The economic outlook for Afghanistan remains subdued with high downside risks due to persistent deflation, trade deficits, and restrictive laws affecting women's rights [6][7][12] - Bangladesh's real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.2 percent in FY24 to 4.0 percent in FY25, driven by subdued investment and industrial growth [16][21] - Bhutan's economic growth is expected to rise to 7.2 percent in FY24/25, supported by new hydropower plants and tourism recovery [24][30] - India's economy expanded by 8.2 percent in FY23/24, reflecting strong growth in manufacturing and construction [32][35] Summary by Sections Afghanistan - Economic growth of 2.7 percent in FY2023-24, recovering from a 27 percent contraction [6] - Key challenges include high poverty rates (48.3 percent), a growing trade deficit (13.5 percent of GDP), and restrictive laws affecting women's rights [7][12] - Projected GDP growth of 2.75 percent annually from 2024 to 2026, with poverty remaining above 40 percent [13][14] Bangladesh - Real GDP growth expected to slow from 5.2 percent in FY24 to 4.0 percent in FY25 due to subdued investment [16][21] - Extreme poverty projected to increase to 7.0 percent in FY25, affecting an additional 1.7 million people [22] - Current account deficit improved to US$6.5 billion (1.4 percent of GDP) in FY24 [18] Bhutan - Economic growth rose to 5.3 percent in FY23/24, projected to increase further due to hydropower and tourism [24][30] - Current account deficit expected to improve with increased exports from hydropower and tourism [24] - 19 percent of the population remains vulnerable to falling into poverty [25] India - Economy expanded by 8.2 percent in FY23/24, driven by manufacturing and construction [32][35] - High rates of youth unemployment and low rates of paid employment for women remain concerns [33] - Inflation slowed to 5.4 percent in FY23/24, but food price inflation remains high and volatile [35]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Pacific Atoll countries [27]. Core Insights - The Pacific Atoll countries, including the Republic of Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), and Tuvalu, face severe existential threats from climate change, necessitating urgent action from both local governments and the global community [27][31]. - The report emphasizes the need for significant investments in climate adaptation, with estimated costs of US$3.7 billion for Kiribati, US$1.0 billion for Tuvalu, and US$5.0 billion for RMI to adapt to a 0.5-meter rise in sea level [29][31]. - The CCDR outlines five key messages to guide policy actions towards a resilient future, focusing on community engagement, human capital investment, land administration, ecosystem protection, and governance improvements [31]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Climate Vulnerability - The Pacific Atoll countries are highly vulnerable due to their small size, low elevation, and economic circumstances, facing risks such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events [36][38]. - Historical climate trends indicate a warming of approximately 1°C since 1970, with significant variations in precipitation across the region [49][50]. Section 2: Climate Commitments and Capacities - The Pacific Atolls have demonstrated leadership in global climate discussions, advocating for the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature increases [27][36]. - The report highlights the importance of aligning international funding with national priorities to address financing gaps for climate adaptation [31]. Section 3: Adaptation Options - The CCDR provides near- and medium-term options for adaptation, including strengthening institutions, enhancing legal frameworks, and improving citizen engagement [28][31]. - Key adaptation strategies involve protecting freshwater resources, fisheries, and coral reefs to ensure food security and maintain island habitability [31]. Section 4: Financing Opportunities - The report stresses the need for increased concessional financing from international partners to support climate adaptation efforts [30][31]. - Enhanced revenue collection and fiscal reforms are necessary to manage the financial risks associated with climate change [29][31]. Section 5: Policy Options and Trade-offs - The CCDR concludes with priority policy options that recognize the need for continued efforts beyond the report's scope to achieve long-term climate resilience [31].