Industry Overview - Minimum wages are a critical component of social protection systems, aiming to protect vulnerable workers and reduce poverty and wage inequality, but poor design can lead to risks such as reduced job opportunities for low-skilled and young workers [2] - Romania has experienced significant real growth in minimum wages over the past decade, with the minimum-to-median wage ratio increasing from 38% in 2007 to 60% in 2017, placing it among the top EU countries in this metric [15] - The minimum wage in Romania is higher than the living wage needed to cover a basic food basket but insufficient to include non-food components, which could lead to long-term job losses, especially for younger workers [2] Labor Market Dynamics - The minimum wage increase in Romania has varying impacts across regions and sectors, with the accommodation and food services sector and the Suceava region being the most affected due to the high proportion of minimum wage earners [2] - Male employees are more affected by minimum wage increases than female employees, and younger workers face higher risks of job loss [2] - The share of minimum wage earners in Romania is consistently high, ranging from 24% to 28% between 2020 and 2021, with 2% of employees earning below the minimum wage threshold [84] Sectoral Impact - The construction sector has the highest proportion of minimum wage earners at 54.6%, followed by accommodation and food services at over 50%, while sectors like electricity, gas, and steam have less than 2% of employees earning minimum wages [91][92] - Microenterprises have the highest proportion of minimum wage earners at 67%, while large enterprises have only 6% of employees earning minimum wages, reflecting the trend that average wages increase with firm size [93][94] Policy Implications - Linking the minimum wage to inflation could result in moderate employment losses, particularly in the long term, with younger workers experiencing the most significant adverse effects [109] - Aligning the minimum wage with a living wage estimate could lead to substantial short-term wage increases but may also cause notable job losses, especially among low-wage and younger workers [118] - The minimum wage increase has a more substantial positive impact on income inequality when aligned with a living wage estimate, with the Gini index decreasing from 0.356 to 0.344 and the bottom 50% income share increasing by 0.7 percentage points [123] Demographic and Regional Variations - The youngest and oldest age groups are most affected by minimum wage increases, with 43% of workers born in 2001 earning minimum wages compared to 27% of those born in 1994 [95] - Regional disparities are significant, with Suceava county having the highest proportion of minimum wage earners at 38%, nearly double that of Sibiu county at 21% [96]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Timor-Leste's economy grew by 2.3 percent in 2023, following growth rates of 2.9 percent in 2021 and 4.0 percent in 2022, reflecting fiscal drag and low budget execution rates due to political transitions [24][40] - The reliance on public sector-driven economic activity has led to stagnant labor market dynamics, with a notable decline in labor productivity and wage levels, particularly among those with higher education [48][50] - The strengthening US dollar has eased price pressures, but food inflation remains high, particularly for rice, driven by reduced international supply [26][27] - The balance of the Petroleum Fund was stable at USD 18.45 billion as of March 2024, reflecting a modest increase from the previous year [27] Recent Developments - Global growth remains sluggish, with advanced economies experiencing a slowdown to 1.5 percent in 2023, while Timor-Leste's economic recovery lags behind regional averages [38][39] - Domestic economic expansion slowed due to political transitions, with private consumption increasing by 3.2 percent, supported by remittance inflows [42][43] - Budget execution rates remain low, with only 25 percent of the total Central Government budget expended by May 2024, aligning with historical averages [25][61] Outlook and Risks - Timor-Leste is forecasted to maintain a recovery trajectory, with growth rates nearing 3 percent in 2024 and averaging 3.7 percent from 2024 to 2026, driven by government expenditure and efficient capital investments [28][29] - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 44.8 percent of GDP in the medium term, with non-oil domestic revenues expected to be around 10 percent of GDP [29] - The economic outlook faces downside risks, including geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, and potential disruptions from extreme weather events [30] Special Focus: Leveraging WTO Accession - Timor-Leste's accession to the WTO presents an opportunity to broaden its economic base and enhance trade relations, particularly in niche agricultural exports [33] - Policymakers are tasked with prioritizing reforms to facilitate economic diversification and improve the business climate to attract foreign direct investment [34][35] - The path to leveraging WTO membership hinges on compliance, modernization, and inclusiveness, requiring strategic policy reforms and institutional modernization [35]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The study investigates the effectiveness of a WhatsApp chatbot game designed to enhance resistance to health misinformation in Jordan, highlighting the urgent need to address misinformation in low- and middle-income countries [4][12][15] - The experimental design involved 2,851 participants divided into five groups, testing various inoculation methods against misinformation [4][16][30] - Results indicate that the comprehensive game-based inoculation significantly improved participants' ability to discern misinformation and reduced the likelihood of sharing misleading headlines compared to the placebo group [4][59] - The brief version of the game also showed some effectiveness, though weaker than the comprehensive version, while passive infographics did not yield significant improvements [4][58][62] Summary by Sections Introduction - Misinformation poses a significant global risk, particularly in health contexts, with direct costs estimated at approximately US$ 78 billion [12] - The study aims to fill the gap in research on misinformation solutions in the Middle East, specifically Jordan, where a high percentage of the population holds misconceptions about COVID-19 [15][16] Methodology - A randomized experiment was conducted using WhatsApp, with participants recruited through Facebook ads [30][31] - Participants were assigned to one of five study arms: comprehensive active inoculation, brief active inoculation, passive inoculation, placebo, and control [35][36] Results - The comprehensive active inoculation group showed a 0.29 standard deviation increase in misinformation discernment compared to the placebo group, while the brief active inoculation group showed a 0.14 standard deviation increase [59][62] - Passive inoculation did not significantly improve discernment compared to the placebo group [62] - The study found that active inoculations were more effective than passive ones in enhancing misinformation discernment [58][62] Conclusion - The findings suggest that game-based interventions can effectively enhance public resistance to misinformation in middle-income countries, indicating a potential avenue for future research and public health strategies [4][12][59]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the need for more effective support policies for SME finance, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this sector [20][22]. Core Insights - Access to financing is crucial for the growth, productivity, and resilience of SMEs, which are vital for job creation and poverty alleviation [19][21]. - The report advocates for governments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) to enhance the enabling environment for SME financing, including the promotion of fintech and alternative lending sources [20][21]. - Public financing programs are necessary but should be designed based on evidence to effectively address the financial constraints faced by SMEs [21][22]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report outlines the significant role of SMEs in employment and economic growth, particularly in the context of recovery from the pandemic [19][20]. - It highlights the persistent financing gap for SMEs, especially in the least developed countries, despite previous government efforts [19][21]. Chapter 1: The Enabling Role of Access to Finance - Access to finance is identified as a key enabler for productivity and growth, with a focus on improving SME access to financial resources [10]. Chapter 2: The Evolution of SME Financing - The chapter discusses various sources of SME financing, including debt and equity, and the emergence of fintech as a transformative force in the sector [11][12]. Chapter 3: A Road Map for Enabling SME Finance - The report provides actionable recommendations for enhancing SME credit information, asset-based financing, and fostering competition among financial institutions [11][12]. Chapter 4: Targeted Public Interventions - It emphasizes the importance of targeted public interventions to support SME financing, including non-financial support measures [12][13]. Chapter 5: Selected Topics - The report addresses specific challenges in financing, such as those faced by women-led SMEs and the agriculture sector, advocating for tailored policy approaches [19][22]. Chapter 6: Conclusion - The conclusion reiterates the need for effective SME finance programs to boost economic growth and job creation, highlighting the importance of a supportive policy environment [14][22].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The paper proposes a method to measure refugee self-reliance based on whether self-earned income exceeds the locally relevant poverty line, emphasizing the importance of measurement for assessing the success of self-reliance promotion [4][11][57] - Refugees in middle-income countries are significantly more likely to be self-reliant compared to those in lower-income countries, with urban refugees showing higher self-reliance than those in rural or camp settings [4][58] - There is an inverse correlation between aid and self-reliance, suggesting that higher aid levels are associated with lower self-reliance among refugees [4][59] Summary by Sections Introduction - Over 36 million refugees are displaced globally, with many facing restrictions on labor market participation, leading to dependency on humanitarian aid [8] - The traditional model of refugee assistance is increasingly viewed as outdated, with a shift towards promoting self-reliance [9][10] Measurement of Self-Reliance - The paper defines self-reliance as the ability to meet essential needs independently of aid, using income as a key indicator [11][12] - Existing measures of self-reliance have limitations, often failing to capture true independence from aid [16][18] Empirical Analysis - The analysis utilizes 11 microdata surveys from low- and middle-income countries to estimate refugee self-reliance and poverty [29][30] - Key findings indicate high poverty incidence among refugees, particularly in low-income countries, with significant variations in self-reliance based on location and economic opportunities [36][44] Conclusions - The report concludes that enhancing refugee self-reliance is more effective in reducing poverty than increasing aid, advocating for a reallocation of resources to support self-reliance initiatives [55][60]

CYBERSECURIT Y ECONOMICS FOR EMERGING MARKETS Estefania Vergara Cobos | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------|----------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | CYBERSECURIT Y | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ECONOMICS | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | FOR | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | EMERGING MARKETS | | | | | CYBERSECURIT Y ECONOMICS F ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the energy sector in Romania. Core Insights - Addressing energy poverty is crucial for economic development as it is closely linked to income poverty, with lower-income households being disproportionately affected by energy price increases [46][47] - Energy poverty impacts overall well-being, human development, and environmental outcomes, leading to health risks and exacerbating existing disparities among vulnerable populations [47][48] - The report aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of energy poverty in Romania, focusing on access to energy, barriers to sustainable energy transitions, the impact of rising energy prices, and potential policy actions [48][49] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Energy poverty is a significant issue in Romania, affecting economic development and overall welfare, particularly among lower-income households [46] - The report highlights the need for a comprehensive analysis of energy poverty, considering various population groups and their vulnerabilities [46][47] Chapter 1: Motivation - The motivation for the report stems from the urgent need to address energy poverty in Romania, especially in light of rising energy prices and their impact on vulnerable consumers [48] Chapter 2: Access to Affordable, Reliable, and Sustainable Energy - Approximately 25% of the Romanian population experienced energy poverty in 2021, with households dedicating about 8.7% of their expenditures to energy [49] - In 2022, 17.8% of households faced difficulties in paying utility bills, and 15.2% struggled to maintain warmth, indicating a high prevalence of energy poverty [49] Chapter 3: A Behaviorally Informed Approach to Sustainable Energy Transitions - The report discusses the behavioral barriers that prevent households from transitioning to sustainable energy solutions, particularly in heating systems [48] Chapter 4: Simulating the Ex-Ante Impacts of Energy Price Increases - Rising energy prices have direct impacts on energy poverty rates and overall welfare, necessitating effective policy responses [48] Chapter 5: Effectively Tackling Energy Poverty - The report outlines existing policies and potential measures to mitigate energy poverty, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to protect vulnerable households [48] Chapter 6: Conclusions and Policy Implications - The conclusions stress the importance of addressing energy poverty through comprehensive policy frameworks and targeted support for the most affected households [48]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite reductions in transport costs, developing countries still face significantly higher transport prices and longer shipping times compared to developed countries, which affects economic growth and welfare [26][36][45] - It emphasizes the need for policy reforms to improve transport efficiency and reduce economic distance, which can enhance trade and economic development in developing countries [27][36][41] Summary by Sections Overview - The report discusses the disparity in transport costs between developing and developed countries, noting that it is 57% more expensive to export to the United States from a low-income country than from a high-income country [45] - It highlights that domestic transport costs in high-income countries are about half those in low-income countries, with some regions experiencing costs 3-14 times higher than in the United States [45] Economic Distance - The concept of economic distance is explored, indicating that transport infrastructure can mitigate the effects of physical geography, but its effectiveness is contingent on quality and operational performance [36][39] - The report states that reducing the distance for shipments can lead to significant cost savings, with a 100-kilometer reduction in distance resulting in an average transport price decrease of about 20% [36][38] Market Efficiency - The report identifies that increasing competition in the transport sector can lead to improved service quality and lower prices, citing examples from countries that have deregulated their trucking sectors [39][40] - It also points out that market failures and government policies can contribute to higher transport prices, emphasizing the need for reforms to address these issues [40][41] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that efficient markets and places are essential for reducing economic distance, recommending measures to enhance competition and improve transport infrastructure [41][42] - It stresses the importance of understanding market failures and frictions to design effective policies that can lead to better transport connectivity and economic outcomes [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the agricultural sector in Ukraine, but it discusses the effectiveness of the Producer Support Grant program, which indicates a focus on supporting small and medium-sized farmers in a conflict-affected environment [4][9]. Core Insights - The digital farmer registry in Ukraine, known as the State Agrarian Register (SAR), has been instrumental in targeting and evaluating the $50 million Producer Support Grant (PSG) program, which has significantly increased the area cultivated by farmers, particularly those near conflict zones and smaller farms [4][12]. - The PSG program provided cash grants of approximately $86 per hectare to small farmers, which helped to bridge short-term financial gaps, although the overall impact on cultivated area was modest [12][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of using administrative data and satellite imagery to assess agricultural support in conflict settings, highlighting the potential for improved targeting and effectiveness of public programs [13][20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report outlines the context of Ukraine's agricultural sector post-Russian invasion, noting significant displacement and damage to agricultural productivity [9][23]. - The establishment of the SAR aimed to facilitate access to support programs for small and medium-sized farmers [9][29]. Context and Setting - Ukraine has over 40 million hectares of fertile land, contributing about 10% to GDP and 42% of exports before the war [25]. - The war has disrupted agricultural production and logistics, necessitating the establishment of the SAR to support farmers [27][29]. PSG Program and SAR Platform - The PSG program, supported by the EU, provided unconditional cash grants to small producers, with a total of €50 million allocated [32]. - The SAR platform was designed to streamline the application process and reduce bureaucratic barriers for farmers [29][31]. Farm-Level Effects of the War and PSG Access - Despite the war, the total area cultivated remained resilient, although profits per hectare significantly declined due to increased input costs and lower output prices [34][39]. - The PSG grants were primarily used as working capital rather than for investment, indicating a need for more substantial financial support for long-term growth [44]. Assessing PSG Impacts on Area Cultivated and Targeting - The analysis indicates that the PSG program had significant but modest benefits, particularly for small producers near conflict zones, with limited mis-targeting observed [46][50]. - The use of satellite data and cadastral information allowed for a more accurate assessment of the program's impact on cultivated areas [46][48].

Policy Research Working Paper 10907 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Hidden Debt Revelations Sebastian Horn David Mihalyi Philipp Nickol César Sosa-Padilla Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10907 Abstract How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics, and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions acro ...