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2025年五一假期专题报告:多空交织,市场涨跌不一
Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 12:27
Report Overview - The report is a special report on the May Day holiday in 2025, analyzing the price changes of various sectors in the external market during the holiday, important news, and providing post - holiday trading suggestions [2] 1. 2025 May Day Holiday External Market Price Changes Exchange and Precious Metals - The US dollar index rose 0.58% from 99.22 to 99.8; the US silver continuous contract fell 1.27% from 33.04 to 32.62; the US gold continuous contract dropped 1.33% from 3315.2 to 3271 [2] Stock Indexes - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased 4.03% from 6894.72 to 7172.4; the German DAX rose 2.95%, the Hang Seng main contract climbed 2.69%, the French CAC40 went up 2.68%, the S&P 500 increased 1.46%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.13%, and the Nikkei 225 increased 1.04% [2] Commodities - Some commodities like US cotton continuous contract rose 3.31%, while others such as Brent crude oil continuous contract fell 4.55% and WTI crude oil continuous contract dropped 5.04% [2] 2. 2025 May Day Holiday Important News Stock Index Sector - Global major stock indexes performed well during the holiday. The rise was related to tariff negotiation progress and Fed policy expectations. The US proposed to lower tariffs, and the Fed's potential rate - cut in the future could ease global liquidity pressure [3] Energy Sector - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day from June, which may complete the 2.2 million barrels per day total increase target nearly one year ahead. This led to concerns about supply pressure and a decline in oil prices [4] Precious Metals Sector - Gold prices fluctuated due to tariff negotiation progress. Even if tariffs improve, central banks' gold - buying trend may continue. Silver was under pressure due to unclear macro - economic situations and high - level gold price fluctuations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Strong US non - farm payroll data cooled rate - cut expectations, and low manufacturing PMI restricted the rebound space of non - ferrous metals [6][7] Black Metals Sector - For steel, production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and apparent demand rose during the holiday, but the sustainability is uncertain. For iron ore, it faced a situation of high supply, weak demand, and policy suppression [8] Agricultural Products Sector - Vegetable oils in the external market fell significantly due to the decline in international oil prices. Different agricultural products had different trends, such as soybeans and soybean meal having narrow - range fluctuations [9][10] 3. Post - holiday Trading Suggestions Energy and Chemicals - The crude oil market is expected to be weak after the holiday, which may drive down the sentiment of the energy - chemical sector. Styrene is expected to continue its weak trend [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Non - ferrous metals may fluctuate after the holiday. Shanghai copper may have a relatively strong oscillation [13] Black Metals - Steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, and its upward space is restricted in the long term. Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][13] Agricultural Products - Domestic vegetable oil varieties are likely to follow the external market's decline. Dalian soybeans and soybean meal may continue the weak - oscillation trend, and corn futures may continue the pre - holiday strong - oscillation trend [14]