Profit Growth Analysis - In January-February 2024, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 9140.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, compared to a decline of 2.3% in 2023[2] - The profit data for January-February 2024 is lower than the same period in 2022 (11575.6 billion yuan) and 2021 (11140.1 billion yuan)[14] - The two-year compound year-on-year growth rate for January-February 2024 is recorded at -11.1%, further declining from the end of 2023[14] Industry and Enterprise Type Insights - Downstream manufacturing profits improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, recovering from a decline of 4.7% in 2023[18] - Private enterprises showed slower profit recovery, with a growth rate of 12.6% compared to 31.3% for foreign enterprises[20] - The gap between the official comparable year-on-year growth rate (10.2%) and the unadjusted rate (3.03%) indicates a significant adjustment in the base year, reflecting the weakness in smaller enterprises[12] Inventory and Demand Dynamics - The inventory turnover ratio decreased to 31% in January-February 2024, indicating a slowdown in enterprise turnover amid excess capacity and weak demand[27] - Finished product inventory growth was recorded at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.1% previously, but still reflects low inventory levels overall[27]

宏观周报 核心观点 ⚫ 风险因素：政策效果不及预期，地产修复不及预期，海外 衰退超预期。 021-68555105 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 准。 制造业 PMI 持续反弹。美国 3 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值录得 52.5，预期 51.7，前值 52.2，较 2 月份以来进一步改善，持续高于荣枯线，创下近两年来的最快增速。3 月份新订 单的增长速度略有放缓，就业机会升至今年迄今的最高水平，通胀压力显示出回升的迹象， 投入成本以 6 个月来最快的速度上涨。 38.45 万美元，创下历年同期的最高水平。 图表 3 美国 Markit PMI 图表 4 美国成屋销量 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 2021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-102024-01 Markit制造业PMI Markit服务业PMI % 300,000 350,000 400,000 45 ...

宏观周报 ⚫ 海外方面，美国 2 月非农就业新增 27.5 万人，超出市场 预期，前两月累计下修16.7万人，商品部门边际降温，服 务就业依旧有韧劲，工资通胀压力缓解，失业率意外上行 至3.9%，整体而言目前就业市场温和增速的趋势未变。周 五鲍威尔释放鸽派信号，强调通胀已出现明显进展，且长 线通胀预期锚定良好，重申今年降息可能是适当的。随后 美债收益率回落，美元指数下行，金价连续创新高，目前 市场定价6月首次降息，全年降4次。欧央行利率决议连续 4次"按兵不动"，同步下调通胀、经济增长预期。本周 关注美国2月CPI、零售数据。 中国出口超预期开门红，美国非农就业温和增长 ⚫ 国内方面，1-2月进出口数据均高于市场预期，主要有3点 原因①全球制造业景气回升，半导体产业链复苏，海外已 逐渐由去库转向补库，需求拉动出口超预期；②春节错位 以及2023年初疫情导致的低基数，助推了同比增速的改 善；③1-2月外贸企业积极抢订单、拓市场。2月物价数据 在春节错位下呈分化走势，CPI同比超预期且回正，PPI同 比走弱，后续由于低基数效应预计将呈弱修复趋势。两会 闭幕，总体而言未超市场预期，全年GDP目标5%左右， 赤字率3 ...