1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan to promote stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry restricts the new and under - construction project commissioning speed of alumina, and the alumina industry is expected to undergo a new round of supply - side reform, with market supply pressure under control [2][6]. - Affected by the news, the market may have a short - term concentrated release of bullish sentiment, and alumina will start a phased rebound. The rebound height and duration are greatly affected by sentiment and are highly uncertain [2][6]. - Alumina futures' main contract fell 1.76% last week, closing at 2,901 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price of the spot market on Friday was 3,022 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from the previous week [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - Alumina futures (active) dropped from 2,953 yuan/ton on September 19th to 2,901 yuan/ton on September 26th, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price dropped from 3,061 yuan/ton to 3,022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 133 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [3]. - The FOB price of Australian alumina dropped from 323 US dollars/ton to 321 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss decreased from 175.36 yuan/ton to 153.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.8 yuan/ton [3]. - The exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 1,182 tons to 149,211 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [3]. Market Review - The supply of bauxite is in a severe situation, but due to strong market wait - and - see sentiment, the ore price has no obvious adjustment. The FOB price of imported bauxite from Guinea in the fourth - quarter long - term contract has dropped slightly compared with the third quarter [2][4]. - On the supply side, alumina supply has increased. As of September 25th, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 96.3 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.89% [4]. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shandong continued to transfer production capacity to Yunnan, and some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Gansu, Guangxi, Xinjiang, and Qinghai released maintenance capacity. Overall, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the demand for alumina increased [4]. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 149,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][4][6]. Market Outlook - The cost support of alumina may weaken in the future. The operating capacity on the supply side continues to increase, and the overseas alumina spot price is still weak, with the import window remaining open. It is expected that about 130,000 tons will arrive in October [2][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprises on the consumption side mainly focus on production capacity transfer, with little change in theoretical demand. Before the National Day holiday, some procurement through bidding increased, and the spot trading volume increased [2][6]. Industry News - As of August 2025, China's total bauxite imports reached 141.756 million tons. In August, China imported 18.29 million tons of bauxite, of which 12.326 million tons were from Guinea, and 4.43 million tons were from Australia, reaching a five - year high [7]. - The COBAD bauxite mine in Guinea has been shut down since September 24th due to a general strike. The strike events of Guinean mining enterprises are on the rise, which poses a risk to the global bauxite supply chain [7]. - In August 2025, China imported 94,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 1,392%; exported 180,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 21.4% and a year - on - year increase of 25.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 488,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 61.3%, and the cumulative export volume was 1.753 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59%, with a cumulative net export of 1.265 million tons [7]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][11][13][17][19][25][26][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is optimistic about the aluminum price, rating it as "oscillating and moderately strong" [1][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk of a US recession has decreased, and the expectation of the Fed continuing to cut interest rates in October remains as high as 85%, with positive macro - expectations [1][6] - On the fundamental side, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable. There may be concentrated arrivals after the National Day holiday, leading to a temporary inventory build - up. The consumption side is in the traditional peak season, and consumption resilience is expected to remain [1][6] - Considering both macro and fundamental expectations, the aluminum price is expected to be oscillating and moderately strong [1][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum decreased from 2676 yuan/ton on September 19th to 2649 yuan/ton on September 26th, a drop of 27 yuan/ton [2] - SHFE aluminum continuous third contract decreased from 20790 dollars/ton to 20755 dollars/ton, a drop of 35 dollars/ton [2] - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 3800 tons to 517700 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 8729 tons to 63230 tons [2] - The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.1 tons to 61.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 12.3 tons [1][2][5] - The electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 135.9 yuan/ton to 4570.03 yuan/ton [2] Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 20670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] - In terms of the macro - aspect, the US economic data was strong, but the Fed had a large divergence on future monetary policy [4] - The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63% [1][5] Market Outlook - The macro - expectation is positive, and the fundamental supply is basically stable. After the National Day, there may be a temporary inventory build - up. The consumption side is in the peak season, and consumption resilience is expected to remain. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating and moderately strong [1][6] Industry News - PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry plans to commission its aluminum smelter in stages, with the first - phase annual production capacity of 500,000 tons and a future expansion plan to 1.5 million tons [7] - In August 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 217,344.071 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%. From January to August, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were 1.715 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [7] Related Charts - The report provides 10 related charts, including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous third price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc. [8][9][14]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures bottomed out and rebounded. The macro - situation is centered around the Fed's October interest - rate cut expectation, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payrolls report. The improvement in demand has led to inventory reduction, and the low overseas inventory and strong structure support the zinc price. However, the resumption of production in domestic refineries and new capacity input will keep the supply high, limiting the upward elasticity of zinc prices. Overall, the long - and short - term forces are balanced, and the continuous adjustment space of zinc prices is limited [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the price of SHFE zinc remained unchanged at 22,045 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc rose from 2898.5 to 2922.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 24 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.61 to 7.54. The inventory of SHFE increased by 4666 tons to 99315 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 4025 tons to 43,800 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.66 million tons to 15.04 million tons. The spot premium decreased from - 50 to - 60 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc, ZN2511, fluctuated around 22,000 yuan/ton after bottoming out and rebounding. The final price was 21,980 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.27%. LME zinc first declined and then rose, supported by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed at 2886.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. In the spot market, by September 25th, the trading was dominated by traders' shipments, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed, with weakening purchasing power and a slight decline in spot discounts [6][7]. 3. Industry News - In October, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average imported ore processing fee was 87.51 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of 16.83 dollars/dry ton. Antamina Mine's zinc production is expected to reach 450,000 tons this year, a 67% increase from last year, offsetting a 12% decline in copper production [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external ratio, spot and LME premiums, inventory situations of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream end - user enterprise operating rates [15][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic situation: US Q2 economic data was strong, with GDP and personal consumption growth exceeding expectations. The core PCE growth slowed in August, and the risk of stagflation seemed to subside. Fed officials had differences on the interest - rate cut path, and the market bet on a 25bp rate cut in October. In China, the interest - rate benchmark remained unchanged, with expectations of RRR and interest - rate cuts [3]. - Fundamental situation: The conflict in the Middle East had limited impact on overseas nickel mines, mainly affecting the loading and unloading efficiency of southern Chinese ports. The Boroy typhoon might have affected Philippine nickel mines, but the ore price was stable. Nickel - iron plants faced cost pressure, and the game on nickel - ore prices between upstream and downstream continued. Some nickel - sulfate manufacturers stopped production, with prices firm but limited price - increase power for nickel salts. The trading of pure nickel did not improve [3]. - Future outlook: With expected disturbances in the macro and resource aspects, nickel prices may fluctuate widely. During the National Day, overseas economic data will be released, and the domestic market closure may bring more uncertainties. Indonesia will announce a new RKAB approval plan in October, making the supply outlook of the ore end uncertain. The market trading is expected to be cold before the holiday, and nickel prices may fluctuate, with attention to overseas market disturbances during the holiday [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Variety | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 121380 | 121500 | - 120 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15166.91 | 15271 | - 104.09 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 230124 | 228444 | 1680 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 25153 | 25843 | - 690 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2350 | 2400 | - 50 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 350 | 450 | - 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 961 | 961 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 82.4 | 81.9 | 0.49 | Tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macroeconomic data**: The market bet that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in October was 85.5%. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was 3.8%, personal consumption expenditure was 2.5%, and the core PCE price index was 2.6%. The initial jobless claims in the week ending September 20 were 218,000. The August core PCE price index annual rate was 2.9%, and personal expenditure monthly rate was 0.6% [5]. - **Nickel - ore market**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines was stable at 49 US dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia was 37.65 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic nickel - ore port inventory was 971 million tons as of September 19, a significant increase of 18 million tons from the previous period but still lower than last year [6]. - **Pure - nickel market**: In August, China's refined - nickel production was 35,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The monthly production capacity was about 53,699 tons, and the operating rate was 66%. The profit margins of MHP and integrated high - matte nickel improved. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a significant year - on - year increase but a month - on - month decrease. The export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of September 26, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was 164.32 US dollars/ton [7][8]. - **Nickel - iron market**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) fluctuated around 954.5 yuan/nickel point. In August, China's nickel - iron production was 25,280 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.77%, and Indonesia's was 137,900 nickel tons, a year - on - month and month - on - month increase. As of September 15, the nickel - iron inventory decreased slightly. Nickel - iron plants still faced losses, and the raw - material inventory was cautious [8]. - **Stainless - steel market**: In August, the production plan of China's 300 - series stainless steel was about 1.79 million tons. As of September 25, the inventory was about 532,400 tons, a slight increase. In September, the steel - mill production plan increased, and the de - stocking trend might continue [9]. - **Nickel - sulfate market**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,150 yuan/ton to 28,200 yuan/ton, and that of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate was stable at 29,750 yuan/ton. In August, the nickel - sulfate metal output was about 30,480 tons. The output of ternary materials increased. As of September 26, the downstream and upstream inventory days were 9 days and 5 days respectively. The price of nickel sulfate was stable, and the actual trading volume was limited [10]. - **New - energy vehicle market**: From September 1 - 21, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 697,000, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.267 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Overseas, the US imposed a 15% tariff on EU - imported cars. In China, the high - frequency sales growth rate continued to pick up, but there were still concerns in the later stage [10]. - **Inventory situation**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel was 40,828 tons, a decrease of 656 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 25,153 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 690 tons, and the LME inventory was 230,123 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1680 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 990 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - On September 20, 2025, Qingmeibang's 30,000 - ton electrowinning nickel production line was officially opened, becoming the first full - industrial - chain base for nickel resources and downstream products in Indonesia [13]. - The ESDM department suspended 190 mining companies in Indonesia, with a maximum suspension period of 60 days. The suspension could be lifted if the companies submitted reclamation plans and provided reclamation deposits. Otherwise, their mining licenses might be permanently revoked [13]. - Starting from October 1, 2025, the Indonesian ESDM will require the submission of the RKAB through the MinerbaOne application. The government is communicating with IUP holders [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The trading margin and daily price limit for rebar and hot-rolled coil have been adjusted by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The spot market shows weak trading, confirming the weak reality. The industry data last week was favorable, with both production and apparent demand increasing and inventory decreasing for the five major steel products. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar rebounded, production remained flat, and inventory significantly decreased, while the data for hot-rolled coil changed little. As the pre-holiday inventory replenishment by steel mills nears completion, the positive factors for raw materials have been realized and prices have declined. It is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate under pressure. Attention should be paid to holiday risks. [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3114 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 1.83%, with a total trading volume of 7,678,373 lots and an open interest of 2,832,803 lots. - SHFE hot-rolled coil closed at 3313 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.81%, with a total trading volume of 2,616,236 lots and an open interest of 1,369,716 lots. - DCE iron ore closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan or 2.17%, with a total trading volume of 1,419,700 lots and an open interest of 529,740 lots. - DCE coking coal closed at 1196.5 yuan/ton, down 35.5 yuan or 2.88%, with a total trading volume of 6,549,970 lots and an open interest of 907,095 lots. - DCE coke closed at 1692.5 yuan/ton, down 46.0 yuan or 2.65%, with a total trading volume of 141,015 lots and an open interest of 53,441 lots. [2] Market Review - The steel futures market adjusted downward after fluctuating last week. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2970 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the Shanghai rebar price was 3250 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil price was 3360 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. [4] Industry News - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target for the added value of the steel industry at around 4% in the next two years. The plan proposes measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, classification management of steel enterprises, and stable supply of raw materials. [6][7] Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts related to the futures and basis spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil, production, inventory, and apparent demand, as well as the regional price differences and profits of steel products. [9][10][11]

铜周报 矿端扰动不断，铜价突破上行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价突破向上，主因美国8月核心通胀表现符合预期， 进一步助推年内降息预期回升，上周多位美国经济领域的 前任领袖阻止解雇库克，称此举将会严重损害美联储政策 独立性以市场对美国货币政策的公信力，解雇风波暂缓提 振美元指数低位反弹；此外，我国8月工业企业利润同比 大幅反弹，反内卷政策效果显著提振市场信心。基本面来 看，印尼Grasberg和秘鲁安塔米纳均大幅下调近期产量预 期，精矿供应愈发趋近，国内精铜产量预期下滑，社会库 存偏低运行，近月盘面回归平水结构。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Title: Corporate Profit Recovery, Industrial Silicon Rangeside Fluctuation 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated within a range. The main reasons were the overall cooling of the domestic industrial product market sentiment, the high - level decline of polysilicon futures with obvious support below, the significant year - on - year increase in the profit growth rate of Chinese industrial enterprises, and the entry of the anti - involution policy effect into the implementation period. The supply side was generally stable, and the demand side had mixed performance. The industrial silicon spot market operated steadily due to the range - bound fluctuation of the futures [2][5][9]. - Overall, China's anti - involution policy effect is in the implementation period, the corporate profits at the silicon material end are continuously recovering, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits has increased significantly, the industrial product market sentiment has cooled but the price center has stabilized. Technically, the 8800 level on the futures chart still has strong support. Although the polysilicon futures' high - level decline slightly dampens short - term sentiment, the futures price is expected to maintain a relatively strong range - bound fluctuation in the short term [2][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | September 26 | September 19 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8960.00 | 9305.00 | - 345.00 | - 3.71% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 9500.00 | 9350.00 | 150.00 | 1.60% | Yuan/ton | | Non - Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 9300.00 | 9100.00 | 200.00 | 2.20% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9700.00 | 9600.00 | 100.00 | 1.04% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10550.00 | 10450.00 | 100.00 | 0.96% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 11050.00 | 10800.00 | 250.00 | 2.31% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 51.00 | 51.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 54.3 | 54.3 | 0 | 0.00% | Ten thousand tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro Aspect**: In August, the total profit of China's above - scale industrial enterprises increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth from January to August was 0.9%. The equipment manufacturing industry played an obvious "ballast stone" role [6]. - **Supply Aspect**: The operating rate in Xinjiang remained at 69%. The output in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season continued to decline, and the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. The overall supply was stable. As of September 26, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 95,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94% and a year - on - year increase of 0.21%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon was 310, and the overall furnace - opening rate was maintained at 38.9% [5][6][9]. - **Demand Aspect**: The quotation center of polysilicon moved up again, but silicon enterprises faced large inventory pressure, and the production cut in October might still be less than expected. The space for silicon wafers to support prices in the future was limited, and the market sentiment weakened. The supply and demand of photovoltaic cells remained in a tight balance, and the demand for high - efficiency cells was good. Leading enterprises at the component end showed signs of reluctant to sell, the centralized price increased slightly, but the terminal tender volume decreased, and some projects continued to postpone construction. The recycling of old photovoltaic components will become an important issue in the industry. The winning bid price range of components disclosed last week was 0.69 - 0.75 yuan/watt [2][5][7]. - **Inventory Aspect**: As of September 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon remained at 543,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The exchange - registered warehouse receipt volume continued to increase. After the exchange introduced the new standard for delivery products, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, and the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new standard were actively registered and stored, becoming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory [8] 3.3 Industry News - As of the end of August, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%; the installed capacity of wind power was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the cumulative average utilization hours of the country's power generation equipment were 2105 hours, 223 hours less than the same period last year [10]. - South Africa added about 928MW of photovoltaic installed capacity in the first quarter of 2025. It is expected that the new installed capacity this year will exceed 1.1GW in 2024. As of mid - 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity in South Africa was estimated to be 9457MW. In July this year, the South African government approved six new photovoltaic projects in the seventh - round procurement, with a total installed capacity of 1290MW. The South African market is gradually adopting the scheme of matching energy storage with renewable energy, and the commercial and industrial market has good prospects, while the residential photovoltaic market shows signs of slowing down [11]. - On September 5, the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the second batch of projects in the 2025 annual development and construction plan for wind power and photovoltaic power generation in Hebei Province. This batch included 76 projects with a total capacity of 7.27107 million kilowatts, including 42 photovoltaic projects with a total scale of 3.12907 million kilowatts and 34 wind power projects with a total scale of 4.142 million kilowatts [11] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts on industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, weekly production in main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon [13][14][15][17][18]

碳酸锂周报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 警惕资源扰动风险 锂价震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 | 指标 | 2025/9/26 | 2025/9/19 | 变动量 | 变动幅度 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 进口锂原矿：1.3%-2.2% | 136 | 136 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/吨 | | 进口锂精矿：5.5%-6% | 812 | 812 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/吨 | | 国产锂精矿：5.5%-6% | 812 | 812 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 即期汇率：美元兑人民币 | 7.135 | 7.11 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the iron ore futures fluctuated and declined as the pre - holiday restocking benefits were realized. With the National Day holiday approaching and the end of steel mills' restocking, iron ore is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1][4][6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years [10] - If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, medium - thick plates and hot - rolled coils will be most affected. With a 30% average tariff rate, China's medium - thick plates will lose their price advantage in South Korea, and the annual export volume may be reduced to less than 800,000 tons [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3114 | - 58 | - 1.83 | 7678373 | 2832803 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3313 | - 61 | - 1.81 | 2616236 | 1369716 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 790.0 | - 17.5 | - 2.17 | 1419700 | 529740 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1196.5 | - 35.5 | - 2.88 | 6549970 | 907095 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1692.5 | - 46.0 | - 2.65 | 141015 | 53441 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, the steel mills' molten iron output continued to increase, with the daily average molten iron rising above 2.42 million tons. The pre - holiday restocking was active, and the steel mills' inventory reached a high level in the same period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 175,000 tons [1][4] - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume increased. Both were at high levels in the same period in the past three years, and the shipment is expected to increase this week. The total global iron ore shipment was 3.3248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 248,300 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 145.5068 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 351,410 tons, an increase of 380 tons [1][5] 3. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", setting the average annual growth target of the steel industry's added value at about 4% in the next two years, and proposing measures such as precise regulation of production capacity and output, classification management of steel enterprises, and stable supply of raw fuels [10] - On September 22, at a press conference, the central bank governor said that the central bank adheres to a domestic - oriented monetary policy, takes into account both domestic and international factors, and the current monetary policy stance is supportive and moderately loose [10] - If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, medium - thick plates and hot - rolled coils will be most affected. With a 30% average tariff rate, China's medium - thick plates will lose their price advantage in South Korea, and the annual export volume may be reduced to less than 800,000 tons [10] - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, ports in China and Mongolia will be closed for 7 days. Ganjimiao, Mandula, and Ceke ports will close on October 1 and resume customs clearance on October 8 [10] 4. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis, steel mills' profit per ton, black metal smelting and rolling processing industry's profit and loss, iron ore shipment, arrival volume, port inventory, and steel mills' inventory and consumption [9][11][13]

贵金属周报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 金银维持强势，长假将至需防控风险 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ ⚫ 上周贵金属价格延续强势运行，国际金银价格在上周再创 新高，金价实现连续第六周上涨。上周五公布的美国通胀 数据符合市场预期，强化了市场对美联储今年晚些时候继 续降息的预期，贵金属价格在上周五再度强势上攻。 ⚫ 美国8月核心PCE价格指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%， 均 ...