1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant, maintaining a loose supply - demand pattern and limiting the upside potential of soybean prices. - The export sales progress of US soybeans is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the USDA report. - The market anticipates a tight supply in Q1. With the suspension of imported soybean auctions and the expected pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the spot price remains firm. - It is expected that in January, the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate within a certain range [3][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since December, the outer - market US soybeans have continuously declined from high levels, and the Dalian soybean meal has oscillated weakly. The inner - market is stronger than the outer - market. - By the end of December, the soybean meal 05 contract dropped 96 to close at 2,754 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.37%. The spot price of South China soybean meal rose 80 to 3,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. - The CBOT US soybeans March contract dropped 98 to close at 1,047.25 cents/bushel, a decline of 8.56%. - The market re - evaluated the export sales progress of US soybeans, which was still significantly slow, causing concerns about export demand. - Favorable weather in South American producing areas led to an upward adjustment of the expected Brazilian soybean output. The structure of near - strong and far - weak continued [9]. 3.2 International Situation 3.2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report showed that the global soybean output in the 2025/2026 season was 422.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 790,000 tons. The global soybean crushing demand was 365.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons. - The global soybean ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season was 122.37 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons compared with the November estimate. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.01%, slightly tightening compared with the previous year. - The overall adjustment of the report was limited, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose [12]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report made no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, with a neutral impact. - In the 2025/2026 season, the US soybean planting area remained at 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit remained at 53 bushels/acre, the export demand remained at 1.635 billion bushels, the ending inventory remained at 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 6.74% [16]. 3.2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to NOPA data, the US soybean crushing volume in November 2025 was 216.041 million bushels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% compared with October. - The 2025/2026 season (from September to November) US cumulative soybean crushing volume was 641.551 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/2026 season was 4.5%. - At the end of November 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.513 billion pounds [19]. 3.2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 878,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume was 28.58 million tons, with a sales progress of 64.2%, compared with 79.2% in the same period last year. - China's net purchase volume in that week was 470,000 tons, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 6.89 million tons, compared with 19.04 million tons in the same period last year [22]. 3.2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The December USDA report showed that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/2026 season remained at 175 million tons, the export demand remained at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 9.35 million tons compared with the previous year, and the crushing demand remained at 59 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. - The ending inventory was 36.36 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 20.68%, with a slightly tightening supply - demand situation. - From January to November 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean export volume was 104.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8 million tons. The cumulative export volume to China was 82.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.77 million tons. - As of the week ending December 27, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 97.9%, and the harvesting progress was 0.1%. The future precipitation in the producing areas was expected to be above normal, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest [26][27][31]. 3.2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The December USDA report showed that the Argentine soybean output in the 2025/2026 season remained at 48.5 million tons, and the import remained at 7.7 million tons. - The export demand was 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand was 41 million tons, the ending inventory was 22.84 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 40.46%. - As of the week ending December 30, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 82%. The future precipitation in the producing areas was slightly lower than normal but had improved significantly compared with the previous period, and the soil moisture was generally good [33][39]. 3.3 Domestic Situation 3.3.1 Imported Soybeans and Other Situations - In November 2025, China's soybean import volume was 8.11 million tons, including 5.85 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 72%, and 1.78 million tons from Argentina, accounting for 22%. - From January to November 2025, the total soybean import volume was 103.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69 million tons. - As of the week ending January 6, 2026, the purchase plan for January shipments was completed, the completion rate for February shipments was 88%, and that for March shipments was 84%. The purchase volume of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was about 10.02 million tons [43]. 3.3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventories - As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 679,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 644,400 tons. - The soybean meal inventory was 1.1676 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 464,400 tons. - The unfulfilled contracts were 3.816 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 920,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 277,000 tons. - The national port soybean inventory was 8.251 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 405,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 504,200 tons. - As of the week of New Year's Day, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 204,400 tons, including 87,570 tons of spot trading and 116,830 tons of forward trading. The weekly average daily pick - up volume was 182,200 tons [47]. 3.3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In November 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. - The year - on - year growth rates of compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed were 2.6%, 4.5%, and 0.1% respectively. - The ex - factory prices of major feed products decreased year - on - year, and the ex - factory prices of livestock and poultry compound feed, concentrated feed, and additive premixed feed mainly decreased month - on - month. - The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 43.8%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 14.0% [54]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook for the Future - China's purchase of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is expected to reach 10 - 11 million tons, with a completion rate of about 90%. The purchase rhythm of US soybeans will slow down. - The US soybean crushing demand may have some upward adjustment space. - The abundant harvest in South America is basically confirmed, limiting the upside of soybean prices. - The domestic oil mill soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but there is an expectation of tightening supply in the future. The basis remains strong, and the spot price rises steadily. - It is expected that in January, the Dalian soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate within a certain range [65][66].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market fundamentals will remain weak in the next month. Before the Spring Festival, supply will stay low due to environmental production restrictions, maintenance, and profit constraints. Demand will further weaken seasonally in January, and inventory will enter an accumulation cycle. With the cost side seeing renewed supply disruptions and the strong performance of coking coal and coke futures driving a rebound in the black commodity sector, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the reference range for rebar at 3000 - 3350 yuan/ton [3][47][48]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In December, steel futures prices showed a volatile trend of rising first, then falling, and then rebounding, remaining basically flat month - on - month. Rebar performed stronger than hot - rolled coil. The main rebar contract rose 0.16% in the month, while the main hot - rolled coil contract fell 0.55%, narrowing the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in December, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25BP. Domestically, the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference was stable, and policy expectations were in line with expectations. The implementation of steel export license management from January 1, 2026, may disrupt market sentiment in the short term. Industrially, rebar demand weakened in December, but production declined more significantly, resulting in smooth inventory depletion and inventory at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. Hot metal production continued to decline, iron ore prices were firm, and coking coal and coke spot prices dropped sharply, jointly driving the steel cost center to move down slightly [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply to Remain Low before Spring Festival - In December, steel mill production contracted due to environmental production restrictions and year - end maintenance. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills dropped to 228.66 tons, a decrease of 6.8 tons from November. The weekly average output of the five major steel products decreased by 420,000 tons to 8.075 million tons, with a particularly prominent reduction in construction steel production. By process, long - process steel mills saw a more significant decline in production due to increased maintenance, while short - process steel mills increased production due to good profits. The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate both declined. In December, steel mill maintenance increased, raw material demand weakened, and costs decreased. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly, but due to weak demand in the off - season and inventory pressure, steel mills still had a strong willingness to cut production actively. It is expected that steel supply will remain low before the Spring Festival due to demand suppression and profit constraints [15]. 2.2 Inflection Point of Steel Inventory - In December, steel inventory depletion accelerated. The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 1.43 million tons to 12.58 million tons, with the most significant decline in rebar inventory, which decreased by 970,000 tons to 4.34 million tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 240,000 tons to 3.77 million tons. Rebar inventory was at a low level, and some resource specifications were in short supply. The high - level hot - rolled coil inventory had significant pressure. The core driver of inventory depletion was the significant production cut by steel mills rather than demand. In January, with the expectation of some steel mill复产 and the further weakening of steel demand as the Spring Festival approaches, inventory will enter an accumulation cycle, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation speed and structural changes [17]. 2.3 Off - Season Demand Suppression - In December, steel demand was weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Domestic demand in real estate, infrastructure, and fixed - asset investment remained weak. Real estate development investment continued to decline, the growth of national fixed - asset investment turned negative, and manufacturing investment showed resilience but with a narrowing growth rate. Domestic demand significantly dragged down steel demand. The trading volume of building materials across the country declined in December, and the demand for construction steel contracted seasonally. By product, the weekly average apparent demand for rebar decreased by 156,000 tons to 2.03 million tons, while the weekly average apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 100,000 tons to 3.07 million tons due to the support of plate end - users such as home appliances and automobiles, showing better demand resilience. Steel exports remained strong, offsetting the weak domestic demand to some extent. However, the implementation of export license management for some steel products by the Ministry of Commerce since December may disrupt future export rhythms. It is expected that the demand trend will continue in January [23]. 2.4 Macroeconomic Policies Seek Progress while Maintaining Stability, but Weak Terminal Demand Persists - Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference held from December 10 - 11, 2025, emphasized the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability and the implementation of more proactive macro - policies, including a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Regarding real estate, efforts will be made to stabilize the market, control new increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. Terminal demand continued to weaken. Real estate investment continued to decline, and the data on new housing starts and construction were deeply adjusted. From January to November, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. Infrastructure investment continued to weaken month - on - month, with limited impetus for steel demand. Manufacturing showed strong resilience, and the automotive and home appliance industries performed well. In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. From January to November, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 11.9% and 11.4%. From January 1, 2026, the implementation of export license management for some steel products aims to regulate exports, promote high - quality industry development, and maintain global supply - demand balance. From January to November, China's cumulative steel imports were 554,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%, and cumulative exports were 10.772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [30][32][33]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply: Steel mill production is contracting due to environmental production restrictions and year - end maintenance. The weekly average output of the five major steel products decreased by 420,000 tons to 8.075 million tons, with a particularly prominent reduction in construction steel production. In December, steel mill maintenance increased, raw material demand weakened, and costs decreased. Due to weak demand in the off - season and inventory pressure, steel mills still have a strong willingness to cut production actively. It is expected that steel supply will remain low before the Spring Festival due to demand suppression and profit constraints. - Demand: Steel demand is weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Real estate development investment continues to decline, the growth of national fixed - asset investment turns negative, and manufacturing investment shows resilience but with a narrowing growth rate. Domestic demand significantly drags down steel demand. The trading volume of building materials across the country declined in December, and the demand for construction steel contracted seasonally. Steel domestic demand is weak while foreign demand is stable. The resilience of plates supports hot - rolled coil demand, while the demand for construction steel weakens significantly with the season. It is expected that the demand trend will continue in January. - Overall, in the next month, the steel market fundamentals will remain weak. Before the Spring Festival, supply will stay low, demand will further weaken seasonally in January, and inventory will enter an accumulation cycle. Macroeconomic policies seek progress while maintaining stability, providing bottom - line support, but weak domestic demand caused by the decline in real estate investment and negative growth in fixed - asset investment persists, while manufacturing resilience supports plate demand. On the cost side, supply disruptions have reappeared, and the strong performance of coking coal and coke futures has driven a rebound in the black commodity sector. Overall, in the game between reality and expectations, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the reference range for rebar at 3000 - 3350 yuan/ton [47][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to stabilize. Under the policies of "anti - involution and over - production inspection" and energy security constraints, the industry's production capacity will be released in an orderly manner, with the total output expected to be the same as in 2025 [3][49]. - In 2026, the over - capacity pattern in the coking industry is difficult to reverse fundamentally. The supply elasticity remains large, and industry profits will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking significant room for improvement. Coke output will mainly follow the rhythm of downstream hot metal demand and coking coal costs, with the annual output expected to be the same as in 2025 [3][49]. - In 2026, the overall terminal demand for steel is expected to remain flat, lacking significant growth. Steel demand in the real estate sector will continue to decline, while steel used in infrastructure, manufacturing, and steel structures will provide support but with a slowing growth rate. Hot metal and crude steel production will enter a plateau, and steel mills will purchase raw materials on an as - needed basis, making it difficult to drive a trend - upward in coking coal and coke demand [3][49]. - Overall, the supply of coking coal is constrained by policies, with domestic production stabilizing and Mongolian coal increasing slightly due to improved transportation capacity. The over - capacity situation in the coke sector is hard to change, with profits fluctuating narrowly and output varying with hot metal demand and coking coal costs. On the demand side, hot metal production has entered a plateau, terminal demand is weakly stable, and steel mills purchase on an as - needed basis. With the coordination of multiple macro - policy objectives, it is expected that coking coal and coke will show a range - bound oscillation, with coking coal ranging from 850 - 1450 yuan/ton and coke from 1400 - 2000 yuan/ton [3][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the coking coal and coke market showed a V - shaped trend. In the first half of the year, the market declined under the influence of fundamentals, rebounded strongly from June to July due to safety inspections and "over - production inspection" policies, and then entered a wide - range oscillation. Policy trends and supply changes were the core trading factors throughout the year [8]. - In the coking coal market, it remained weak in the first half of the year and reversed in the second half. From January to May, the price declined unilaterally due to increased domestic coal production, sufficient supply, weak market expectations, and sluggish terminal demand. In June, supply contracted due to environmental inspections and production cuts in some mines, and prices stabilized. In July, prices soared due to policy fermentation. From August to October, prices oscillated widely, and after November, prices fell back due to increased supply pressure [8]. - In the coke market, from January to May, prices declined in tandem with coking coal due to falling coking coal prices and high inventory pressure. From June, prices stopped falling and stabilized as coking coal supply contracted. From July to August, prices rose after seven rounds of price hikes. In September, prices were lowered twice. From October to November, prices rose after four rounds of price hikes, and in December, prices fell again due to weak demand [9]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Production Enters a New Stage of Stable and Orderly Development - In 2025, domestic coking coal production was high in the first half and low in the second half, with policies playing a dominant role. In the first half, under the guidance of the coal - supply guarantee policy, the coal mine start - up rate in major production areas quickly recovered to a high level. After May, the start - up rate declined due to safety incidents, environmental inspections, etc. In July, policies changed, and "over - production inspection" and "anti - involution" became the main policies, leading to a significant decline in the start - up rate. In 2026, domestic coking coal production is expected to enter a new stage of stability, with the annual output expected to be about 475 million tons, basically the same as in 2025 [11]. 3.2.2 Overall Decline in Coking Coal Imports - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 104.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.67%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.7% of total imports. In November, imports were 10.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.69%. Mongolian coal imports increased significantly in November. In 2026, the total national import volume is expected to be about 119 million tons, maintaining a stable supply [14][15]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In 2025, coking coal inventory in the industrial chain showed significant structural transfer. In the first half, downstream steel mills and coking enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, causing coal mine inventory to accumulate. In the second half, after the implementation of the "over - production inspection" policy, inventory shifted from upstream to downstream. Overall, upstream coal mine inventory first accumulated and then decreased, port inventory fluctuated with supply and demand, and downstream coking enterprise inventory was generally low [31]. 3.2.4 Stable Growth in Coke Supply - As of the end of November 2025, the national in - production capacity of metallurgical coke was about 565 million tons. In 2025, the coking industry continued to promote capacity replacement, with a net increase of about 4.68 million tons in capacity. The average capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 73.51%, a year - on - year increase of 3.2 percentage points. In 2025, the cumulative coke output from January to November was 460.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In the future, the industry will accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and industry profits may improve marginally but with limited space [33][34]. 3.2.5 Coke Imports and Exports - In 2025, coke exports shrank significantly. From January to November, cumulative exports were 6.94 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6%. Exports were restricted by factors such as overseas capacity expansion, import policies of other countries, and rising coking coal prices. Imports from January to November were 0.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.41 million tons, but had little impact on the domestic supply - demand pattern [37]. 3.2.6 Coke Inventory - In 2025, the coke industry generally maintained a de - stocking state, with inventory at a neutral - to - low level compared to historical periods. Upstream coking enterprise inventory first accumulated and then decreased, downstream steel mill inventory was maintained at a rigid - demand level, and port inventory was relatively stable. The overall social inventory showed a de - stocking trend [39]. 3.3 Demand Side: Hot Metal Production High in the First Half and Low in the Second Half - In 2025, domestic steel mill production was high in the first half and low in the second half, influenced by profit at the micro - level and policy adjustments at the macro - level. After the Spring Festival, steel demand recovered seasonally, but then weakened in the second quarter. After June, the start - up rate declined due to rising coal and coke costs. From August to October, the start - up rate rebounded slightly but was limited by the slow recovery of the real estate market. In the fourth quarter, the start - up rate declined again due to the off - season [42]. - In 2025, pig iron production was stronger than crude steel production. From January to November, cumulative pig iron output decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, and crude steel output decreased by 4%. Hot metal daily output increased from 2.25 million tons at the beginning of the year to 2.4 million tons in June and remained resilient in the second half of the year. In 2026, hot metal production is expected to enter a plateau, with terminal demand remaining stable. The domestic demand for coking coal and coke is expected to be about 600 million tons and 420 million tons respectively [42][43]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Coking coal: In 2026, domestic production is expected to stabilize, with new production capacity having limited contribution. Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase slightly due to improved transportation capacity, and Russian coal imports will remain stable [49]. - Coke: In 2026, the over - capacity pattern in the coking industry is difficult to reverse. Industry profits will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range, and exports are expected to remain at a low level. Coke output will follow the rhythm of downstream hot metal demand and coking coal costs [49]. - Steel mills: In 2026, the overall terminal demand for steel is expected to remain flat, with real estate steel demand continuing to decline and steel used in infrastructure, manufacturing, and steel structures providing support but with a slowing growth rate. Steel mills will purchase raw materials on an as - needed basis [49]. - Overall: With policy constraints on the coking coal supply side, stable domestic production, and a slight increase in Mongolian coal imports, the supply is generally stable. The over - capacity situation in the coke sector is hard to change, and demand is weakly stable. With the coordination of multiple macro - policy objectives, coking coal and coke are expected to show a range - bound oscillation, with coking coal ranging from 850 - 1450 yuan/ton and coke from 1400 - 2000 yuan/ton [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the demand aspect, due to environmental protection restrictions, concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand, domestic steel mills' production contracted significantly in December. The average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased to about 2.28 million tons. Although the profit margin of steel mills improved slightly, it remained at a low level. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore prices, but it cannot change the pattern of loose supply due to weak terminal demand [3][45]. - In the supply aspect, global iron ore supply was strong in December, with the shipment volume reaching a new high for the year. Australia and Brazil made significant contributions, and the arrival volume in China remained high. Attention should be paid to potential supply disruptions caused by the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere in the first quarter. Port iron ore inventories have accumulated to a historically high level for the same period, while steel mills' inventories remained low. Constrained by profits and demand, inventory replenishment is mainly rigid and on - demand, with a moderate intensity [3][45]. - In the next month, pressure on iron ore futures prices will still exist, and the overall center is expected to move down in a fluctuating manner. On the demand side, factors such as environmental protection, seasonal off - season, and concentrated maintenance of steel mills restrict the significant increase of hot metal output. On the supply side, it remains loose. Based on the end - of - last - year rush, the arrival pressure in January continues, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. The potential impact of the Southern Hemisphere's rainy season on shipments in the first quarter needs to be monitored. Constrained by the overall weak terminal demand, the intensity of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment may be limited, and the impact on prices is expected to be more short - term. The expected fluctuation range is 740 - 860 yuan/ton [3][45][47]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In December, the iron ore market first declined and then rose, showing an overall fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. At the beginning of the month, due to the disappointment of policy expectations and the continuous reduction of hot metal production, the price of the main contract quickly fell after approaching the pressure level of 800 yuan/ton. Subsequently, supported by the low - level hot metal output, the resilience of steel exports, and the inventory replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventories, the price rebounded and once exceeded 800 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply side was in the peak shipping season. The global shipping volume increased to 36.77 million tons month - on - month, with Australia and Brazil contributing an increase of 2.44 million tons. The arrival volume was 26.01 million tons, at a historical high. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output was 2.28 million tons, remaining flat month - on - month but at a historical low. The profitability of steel mills improved slightly within the month, but the off - season and major maintenance restricted the resumption of production. In terms of inventory, port inventories accumulated to 158.5866 million tons, an increase of 3.46 million tons month - on - month. Although the equity ore inventory of steel mills was at a low level, short - term inventory replenishment was limited [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel Mill Start - up Contraction, Focus on Inventory Replenishment Rhythm Before the Festival - In December, domestic steel mills' production showed an overall contraction trend, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions, year - end concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was about 2.28 million tons, a decrease of nearly 70,000 tons month - on - month, at a historically low level for the same period. The weekly average output of five major steel products decreased by 420,000 tons month - on - month, with a significant reduction in construction steel such as rebar, reflecting the characteristic of structural supply contraction [10]. - The decline in production was mainly due to three factors: continuous production restrictions under the constraints of autumn and winter environmental protection policies, the entry of steel mills into the concentrated maintenance period after high - yield throughout the year, and the traditional off - season of terminal demand, with weak orders in industries such as construction and automobiles, and the pressure of social inventories leading steel mills to actively adjust production to ease the supply - demand contradiction [10]. - Before the Spring Festival, steel mills' production is expected to remain in a "weak and stable" state. Constrained by the traditional off - season of terminal demand and year - end concentrated maintenance, hot metal output is unlikely to increase significantly and may continue to fluctuate around the daily level of 2.25 million tons. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore, but due to weak terminal demand, the intensity of replenishment may be limited, and it is difficult to change the current pattern of loose supply [11]. 2.2 End - of - Year Rush in Overseas Ore Shipments - In December, global iron ore supply was strong. Major mines concentrated on shipping at the end of the year, pushing the global iron ore shipment volume to a new high for the year. The total global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.126 million tons month - on - month to 36.771 million tons, at a historically high level for the same period. Australia and Brazil shipped a total of 30.596 million tons, an increase of 2.448 million tons month - on - month. Australia's shipment volume was 21.137 million tons, an increase of 1.631 million tons month - on - month, and the iron ore shipped to China increased by 1.73 million tons to 18.676 million tons. Brazil's shipment volume also increased by 818,000 tons month - on - month to 9.459 million tons [18]. - The high shipment volume also raised the expectation of subsequent arrivals. Although the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China decreased slightly by 453,000 tons month - on - month to 26.014 million tons last month, it remained at a historically high level for the same period. According to the shipping rhythm, the arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the next two weeks. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on shipments in the first quarter [19]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventories - In December, iron ore port inventories continued to accumulate. The inventory at the 45 ports increased by 3.4603 million tons month - on - month to 158.5866 million tons, at a historically high level for the same period. The main reason for the inventory accumulation was the relatively high arrival volume during the shipping peak season, combined with the low port clearance volume during the year - end off - season. Although the average daily port clearance volume increased slightly, it was difficult to offset the arrival pressure [33]. - In terms of structure, the inventory of trade ore increased to 103.6761 million tons. The inventory of Australian ore increased by 4.11 million tons month - on - month to 69.4126 million tons, while the inventory of Brazilian ore decreased by 1.65 million tons to 56.6956 million tons. Lump ore, pellets, and fines accumulated 1.08 million tons, 610,000 tons, and 2.99 million tons respectively. The high port inventory reflects the phased supply - demand relaxation [33]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In December, steel mills' iron ore inventories remained at a low level. As of the end of the month, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 88.6019 million tons, a slight increase of 1.3624 million tons month - on - month, still at a historically low level for the same period. In the context of weak off - season demand and continuous pressure on profits, steel mills generally adopted a low - inventory strategy to control capital occupation and procurement risks [37]. - The proportion of in - plant inventory in steel mills was not high, and the average available days of iron ore remained at about 31 days, in a relatively low normal range, reflecting that steel mills were cautious about the subsequent demand recovery and their procurement behavior was mainly on - demand, lacking the motivation for large - scale inventory building. Although there was a rigid demand for inventory replenishment at the end of the year, due to weak terminal orders, poor sales of finished products, and limited profit repair space, the actual intensity of inventory replenishment was relatively moderate [37]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In December, domestic mine production showed a seasonal decline at the end of the year. The iron concentrate output of 186 mining enterprises was 434,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month and 30,000 tons year - on - year; the output of 126 mining enterprises was 371,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons month - on - month and 13,000 tons year - on - year. At the end of the year, some mines completed their annual production and sales targets, and more mines reduced or stopped production. In terms of regions, the output of major production areas such as North China, Northeast China, and East China all declined to varying degrees [41]. - From January to November 2025, China's iron ore production totaled 923.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The cumulative production in the main production areas of Hebei and Liaoning was 407.72 million tons and 160.5 million tons respectively, with a decline of 11% and 4% respectively, which were the main sources of the iron ore reduction. The production in Sichuan increased by 12% year - on - year to 96.32 million tons [41]. 2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In December, shipping freight rates generally declined. As of December 31, the freight rate for the route from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao was reported at $8.59/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $3.42/ton and a year - on - year increase of $2.17/ton, with a growth rate of 34%; the freight rate for the route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was reported at $22.66/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $2.37/ton and a year - on - year increase of $5.47/ton, with a growth rate of 32% [44]. - In 2025, iron ore shipping freight rates increased significantly. At the beginning of the year, affected by the contraction of global shipping trade volume and high port inventories in China, market sentiment was low, and freight rates were at a low level. With the seasonal recovery of demand, freight rates started to rebound fluctuatingly. In the second half of the year, driven by the strong export of Brazilian iron ore and the significant increase in China's import demand, shipping freight rates continued to strengthen [44]. 3. Market Outlook - Demand side: Affected by environmental protection restrictions, concentrated maintenance, and the off - season of demand, domestic steel mills' production contracted significantly in December. The average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased to about 2.28 million tons, steel production decreased, and the reduction in construction steel was particularly prominent. The profit margin of steel mills improved slightly but remained at a low level. The pre - holiday raw material replenishment by steel mills may provide short - term support for iron ore prices, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply due to weak terminal demand [45]. - Supply side: In December, global iron ore supply was strong, with the shipment volume reaching a new high for the year. Australia and Brazil made significant contributions, and mainstream mines such as Rio Tinto and Vale, as well as non - mainstream regions, all actively rushed to ship. The arrival volume in China remained high. Attention should be paid to potential supply disruptions caused by the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere in the first quarter. Port iron ore inventories have accumulated to a historically high level for the same period, while steel mills' inventories remained low. Constrained by profits and demand, inventory replenishment is mainly rigid and on - demand, with a moderate intensity. High port inventories suppress the willingness to purchase, but low steel mill inventories also limit the downward space of ore prices [45]. - In the next month, pressure on iron ore futures prices will still exist, and the overall center is expected to move down in a fluctuating manner. On the demand side, factors such as environmental protection, seasonal off - season, and concentrated maintenance of steel mills restrict the significant increase of hot metal output. On the supply side, it remains loose. Based on the end - of - last - year rush, the arrival pressure in January continues, and port inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. The potential impact of the Southern Hemisphere's rainy season on shipments in the first quarter needs to be monitored. Constrained by the overall weak terminal demand, the intensity of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment may be limited, and the impact on prices is expected to be more short - term. The expected fluctuation range is 740 - 860 yuan/ton [45][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Fed Governor Milan indicates about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026, and CME rate futures price in two rate cuts in June and September. The US labor market shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims low but continuing claims rising. The dollar index rebounds, and metal prices adjust for two consecutive days. In China, January economic data is in a vacuum, and the A - share market is in a structural game phase [2]. - Precious metals face increased adjustment pressure due to regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3][4]. - Copper prices are under short - term pressure from long - position profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend. Supply disruptions in Chile and inventory changes are key factors [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment as funds flow out and inventory accumulates. Alumina and cast aluminum are also adjusting in line with the overall market [7][8][11]. - Zinc, lead, and tin prices are adjusting due to factors such as market caution before non - farm data, changes in environmental policies, and profit - taking by funds [12][14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices decline as the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations [17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, demand seasonality, and supply trends. Double - coking prices are influenced by production news and market sentiment [18][19][21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices show different trends. Rapeseed meal drops significantly, and soybean meal returns to a volatile state, influenced by export data, weather, and trade relations [22][23]. - Palm oil is expected to trade in a range. Factors include Indonesia's bio - diesel policies, potential export tax hikes, and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - Overseas: Fed Governor Milan says current rates are above the neutral level and restrictive. There's about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026. Initial jobless claims are at a historical low, but continuing claims are rising. The dollar index rises to 98.9, and metal prices adjust for two days, with precious metals relatively resilient and oil prices rebounding. - Domestic: January economic data and policies have limited impact on the market. The A - share market is in a structural game, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down at 4083 points, and a structural differentiation among broad - based indices. The trading volume drops slightly to 2.83 trillion, and over 3730 stocks close higher [2]. Precious Metals - During Thursday's trading, precious metal prices are mixed. COMEX gold futures rise 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments put pressure on gold and silver prices. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing from January 8 - 14 will bring selling pressure on precious metals, especially silver, increasing short - term adjustment pressure [4]. Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper futures continue to decline, and LME copper adjusts to around $12,700. The domestic spot market is quiet, and the LME inventory drops to 141,000 tons while the COMEX inventory rises to 515,000 tons. The market expects about two rate cuts in 2026. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the plant's operation capacity is only 30% of normal. After reaching a high, copper prices are under short - term pressure from profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend [5][6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum futures close at 23,765 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. LME aluminum closes at $3088.5 per ton, up 0.16%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, and due to high prices and the off - season, terminal demand is suppressed. With the outflow of funds, the market is dominated by fundamentals, and aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment [7][8]. Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures close at 2863 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The spot - futures price difference is large, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The increase in futures prices may lead to more imports and delay domestic production cuts. Alumina prices are expected to adjust following the overall market [9][10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures close at 22,585 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and prices follow the trend of aluminum. With market enthusiasm cooling and long - position profit - taking, cast aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, Shanghai zinc futures continue to adjust. As zinc ingots arrive, market supply increases, but downstream consumption is poor in the off - season. The social inventory rises slightly. The market is cautious before the non - farm data, and zinc prices are expected to adjust in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, Shanghai lead futures decline. After the environmental control in Anhui is lifted, some recycled lead smelters resume production, but the supply increase is limited. The social inventory rises slightly but remains below 20,000 tons. With weak consumption in the off - season, lead prices are expected to be weak due to the outflow of funds [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, Shanghai tin futures adjust. Before the release of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is nervous, and some funds take profits. The fundamentals change little, with slow recovery of tin mines and uncertain production in major producing countries. Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon futures slightly rebound. The supply side shows a marginal contraction, and the demand side is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The anti - involution policy falls short of expectations, and industrial silicon prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase [16][17]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Thursday, steel futures decline. The supply of five major steel products increases slightly, and the total inventory rises. The consumption of building materials drops significantly, and the market is expected to return to a volatile mode. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures adjust. The supply is abundant as overseas miners increase shipments at the year - end, and port inventories accumulate. Demand is weak with low blast furnace operating rates. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18][19][20]. Double - Coking - On Thursday, double - coking futures rise and then fall. Mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have not received official notices of capacity reduction. With increased domestic coal production and high import inventories, and high inventory pressure in the downstream off - season, the price increase space is limited. Prices are mainly driven by short - term market sentiment [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal 05 contract closes down 0.32% at 2782 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 05 contract closes down 1.71% at 2358 yuan/ton. Brazil's January soybean export is expected to reach 2.4 million tons. The US soybean export sales decline. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations and good weather in South America, rapeseed meal drops, and soybean meal is expected to continue to fluctuate [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil 05 contract closes up 1.13% at 8612 yuan/ton. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil biodiesel consumption increases by 7.6%, and it plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year. There are also plans to increase export taxes. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakens, and palm oil is expected to trade in a range [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The main theme of cooling employment in the US remains unchanged, but the resilience of the service industry offsets the downward pressure. In the domestic market, the upward momentum of the A - share market has weakened, and the market has entered a stage of differentiated game. Precious metals are facing increased short - term adjustment pressure, while various industrial metals and agricultural products show different trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: In December, the US ADP employment number turned positive but was lower than expected. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more - than - one - year low, and the number of job openings was lower than the number of unemployed for the first time in four years, indicating a slowdown in recruitment. However, the ISM service industry PMI in December rose to a more - than - one - year high of 54.4, with a significant rebound in new orders, driving a phased recovery in service - industry employment and a slowdown in price increases. The US dollar index rebounded to 98.7, and the upward momentum of metals paused. Oil prices continued to adjust [2] - Domestic: On Wednesday, the A - share market fluctuated widely, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting 4100 points but failing to break through, closing at 4085 points, showing a marginal weakening of upward momentum. The broad - based index structure was differentiated, and the market entered a stage of differentiated game. In January, domestic economic data and policies are in a relatively empty period, and the market depends more on the self - evolution of capital structure and risk preference [3] Precious Metals - On Wednesday, precious metals futures showed high - level fluctuations during the day session. At night, the Shanghai Futures Exchange further tightened the supervision of silver futures, leading to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.65% to $4467.1 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures fell 3.77% to $77.98 per ounce. The exchange continued to strengthen risk - control measures. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct an annual weight rebalancing from January 8th to 14th, which may cause a "technical sell - off" by passive funds. Although the long - term bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, short - term adjustment pressure has increased [4][5] Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise strongly, while LME copper adjusted to around $12800 last night. The domestic spot market for electrolytic copper had poor trading, and downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices. The LME inventory decreased to 143,000 tons, while the COMEX inventory continued to rise to 512,000 tons. After copper prices hit a new high the day before, overseas funds' long - positions took profits and sold off. The high copper prices continued to suppress consumption in major demand countries. Fundamentally, the global concentrate remained in a tight pattern, and the shortage at the cost - end would support copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high - level shock in the short term and enter a valuation - repair range [6][7] Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,410 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The LME aluminum closed at $3083.5 per ton, down 1.61%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the aluminum rod inventory in the main domestic consumption areas also increased. After a significant increase, there was profit - taking. However, the weak employment data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's further easing policy, and the price rebounded at night. Fundamentally, the continuous and rapid increase in aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots was expected to continue to accumulate. The market's long - positions showed signs of convergence, and there may be a need for price repair [8][9][10] Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2938 yuan/ton, up 4.97%. The national average spot price of alumina decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The market's macro sentiment and the expectation of alumina production cuts in January led to a rebound in the futures price first, resulting in a divergence between futures and spot prices and the appearance of an inter - period arbitrage window. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has not changed much recently, and the theoretical production capacity is still in excess. In the short term, the supply is still in excess, and a short - position thinking after the rebound is recommended, with attention paid to the resistance level around 3000 yuan/ton [11] Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 23,035 yuan/ton, up 0.7. The rapid increase in cast aluminum prices has made downstream buyers hesitant, with most of them maintaining rigid - demand purchases. Some enterprises have production - cut plans, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is slow, restricting consumption. The supply side is relatively stable due to the limitation of scrap aluminum. In the short term, the macro sentiment dominates, and cast aluminum is relatively strong, but the poor price transmission between upstream and downstream will put pressure on prices in the future [12] Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated horizontally during the day and moved down at night, and LME zinc closed down. The spot market supply was limited, with high premiums. Downstream buyers were still hesitant due to high prices. The overall economic data in the US was mixed, the US dollar strengthened, and the enthusiasm of funds to go long cooled down, with the main contract reducing positions for adjustment. Fundamentally, the zinc - ore processing fee decline slowed down, and the supply of refined zinc increased month - on - month. Consumption remained in the off - season, and terminal orders were limited. It is expected that zinc prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13][14] Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated strongly during the day and first declined and then rebounded at night, and LME lead fluctuated weakly. The spot market had limited circulating supply, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, mainly making long - term contract purchases. The US dollar strengthened, and lead prices adjusted with the reduction of positions in the non - ferrous metal sector. Fundamentally, the production of primary lead smelters increased slightly month - on - month, while the production of secondary lead smelters decreased slightly. The overall supply pressure was limited, and low inventory would support lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will remain at a high level in the short term [15] Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin continued to be strong during the day, once reaching the 360,000 - yuan line, and fluctuated horizontally at night, and LME tin fluctuated narrowly. Both at home and abroad maintained a wide - range expectation, providing a bullish atmosphere for commodities. The non - ferrous metal sector has been rising in rotation since the New Year. Fundamentally, the production of refined tin in January decreased slightly month - on - month, demand was in the off - season, and the negative feedback of high - price raw materials was expected to deepen. After the New Year's Day stocking benefits were realized, social inventory was expected to increase again. In the short term, the US economic data was mixed, the US dollar closed up, and Shanghai tin adjusted with a reduction of positions. Attention should be paid to high - level risks [16] Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded slightly. The supply side showed a marginal contraction, with the operating rate in Xinjiang remaining at around 90%, low production in the southwest region in the off - season, and limited overall increases in Inner Mongolia and Gansu. On the demand side, the supply of polysilicon was converging, and the inventory pressure of silicon - wafer enterprises was effectively relieved after production cuts. The production capacity of battery - cell enterprises did not show significant fluctuations, and the increase in silver prices was expected to drag down the production plan. The demand for components was weak near the end of the year. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 553,000 tons last week, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a relatively strong shock in the short term [17][18] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rose. The short - term sharp rise in coking coal and coke drove the rise of steel prices. The supply and demand of steel were in a weak balance, with off - season demand suppressing and inventory reduction supporting, and the macro expectation was relatively positive. The supply and demand of rebar fluctuated at a low level and continued the de - stocking pattern, while the production of hot - rolled coil increased, and the de - stocking slowed down and remained at a high level. It is expected that the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and attention should be paid to high - level risks [19] Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron - ore futures rose. The supply side saw a surge in overseas miners' shipments at the end of the year, with global shipments hitting a new high for the year, and port inventories continued to accumulate, maintaining a loose supply. The demand side showed a slight decline in the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills, and pig - iron production hovered at a low level, with low factory inventories. The short - term strong performance of coking coal and coke provided support, and the futures price was relatively strong [20] Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit and continued to rise sharply at night. The news that Yulin City removed 26 coal mines from the coal - supply guarantee list and reduced the production capacity by 19 million tons, combined with multiple factors such as positive macro - policy expectations, steel mills' winter - storage replenishment demand, and capital - sector rotation, drove the strong rise of coking coal and coke futures. However, the fundamental support was limited. Currently, domestic coal production has recovered after the holiday, and the inventory of imported coal is high, while the inventory pressure of downstream finished products is high in the off - season, restricting the upward space of prices. In the short term, strong expectations dominate, and prices may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern, but the risk of chasing high is relatively large [21] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean - meal 05 contract closed up 1.74% at 2811 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - meal 05 contract closed up 1.72% at 2419 yuan/ton. The precipitation in the Argentine production area has continuously improved, and the crop conditions in the South American production areas are good. Currently, soybeans and soybean meal are in a high - inventory situation, and the suspension of the state - reserve imported - soybean auction and the expected decrease in future soybean arrivals may accelerate inventory depletion, with tight - supply expectations providing support. The basis is strong, and the spot price is stable with a slight increase. Combined with the strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market, long - position funds entered the market, and the soybean - meal 05 contract broke through the short - term resistance range. It is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will fluctuate strongly in the short term [22][23] Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm - oil 05 contract closed up 0.66% at 8562 yuan/ton. The production of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 4.64% in December. Indonesia plans to confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil - palm plantations in 2026, which may disrupt production and push up prices. The US economic data showed that demand is relatively stable, and the US dollar index fluctuated and closed up. The market is waiting for the report's guidance, and it is expected that palm oil will fluctuate within a range in the short term [24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are escalating globally, leading to an upward trend in resource prices. Precious metals, copper, and other commodities are showing strong performance. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed's monetary policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5]. - In the short term, most commodity prices are expected to maintain a volatile or upward - trending pattern, but there are also risks such as capital outflows and weak demand in some sectors [6][10][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks from events like the US' strategic intervention in Greenland and the situation in Venezuela are driving up precious metal prices. Silver has set a new high. The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term price fluctuations will be intense [3][4]. - On Tuesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce [3]. Copper - Dovish voices suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. The copper price is oscillating upwards. Although the spot market trading is sluggish and inventories are rising, supply disruptions from strikes in Chile and a tight supply - demand balance are expected to keep the copper price at a high level in the short term [5][6]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract continued its strong upward trend, and LME copper broke through $13,000 without showing signs of adjustment [5]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is strongly influenced by short - term capital and sentiment. Although the supply - demand fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, in the context of the Fed's expected interest - rate cut cycle, capital continues to flow into the aluminum market, leading to a strong performance of the aluminum price [7]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,395 yuan/ton, up 3.26% [7]. Alumina - The alumina spot price is still weak, but due to the expectation of maintenance and production cuts by loss - making enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the alumina futures have rebounded. However, the rebound may limit the scale of production cuts [8]. - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 2,818 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [8]. Cast Aluminum - The continuous sharp rise in copper and aluminum prices has pushed up the cost of recycled aluminum raw materials, driving up the spot price of cast aluminum. Although the demand is weak, the inflow of capital has supported the cast aluminum price to be strong recently [9]. - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 22,995 yuan/ton, up 2.29% [9]. Zinc - Driven by capital, the zinc price has continued to rise. The geopolitical conflict has brought resource premiums, and the price hitting a nearly 10 - year high in China has boosted capital's enthusiasm for long - positions. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and chasing the rise requires caution [10]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc main contract 2602 continued its strong intraday trend and oscillated at a high level at night [10]. Lead - With the market maintaining a bullish atmosphere, the rise of LME lead has driven up the Shanghai lead price. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, but the low inventory provides support. The lead price is expected to continue to rise slowly in the short term [11]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead main contract 2602 moved up during the day and continued to rise at night [11]. Tin - In the context of resource risk premiums, capital enthusiasm has pushed the tin price back to a strong level. Although the raw material supply disturbances have eased, the seasonal decline in Indonesian refined tin exports and the reduction in domestic supply in January support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [13]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin main contract 2602 rose strongly during the day and continued to rise at night [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment is high, and the industrial silicon price has rebounded. The supply is marginally shrinking, and the demand is also weak. The overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the futures price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [14][15]. - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract rebounded slightly [14]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The supply - demand of steel is in a weak balance. The off - season demand suppresses the price, while inventory reduction provides support. With positive macro - expectations, the steel price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term [16]. - On Tuesday, steel futures rose. The trading volume of steel in the spot market was 96,000 tons [16]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is supported by the expectation of pre - holiday restocking. Although the supply is abundant due to the year - end shipping rush by overseas miners, the change in the South American situation has worried the market about supply, leading to an oscillating rebound of the futures price [17][18]. - On Tuesday, iron ore futures rose. The trading volume of iron ore in the spot market was 1.33 million tons [17]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The fundamentals lack strong drivers. The decline in raw coal prices has narrowed, supporting the coke price, and the downstream procurement demand has recovered. After the holiday, coal mine production has increased slightly. The steel mills' procurement is still cautious, and the double - coking price is expected to oscillate and rebound [19]. - On Tuesday, double - coking futures rebounded [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - South American weather is favorable for crop growth, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and the external market is under pressure. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [20][21]. - On Tuesday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 1.09% to 2,776 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 1.06% to 2,390 yuan/ton [20]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report. The production in Malaysia in early January decreased significantly, while exports improved moderately. With positive macro - sentiment and weak oil prices, the palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22][23]. - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.09% to 8,500 yuan/ton [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Although the expected interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 has slightly declined, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Trump's upcoming nomination of a new chairman has raised market concerns about the decline in the Fed's independence. Amidst the global electrification transformation and AI - driven industrial revolution, copper is crucial for data centers, electric vehicles, and power grid infrastructure. Domestically, the central bank will flexibly use reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, implement an expansionary fiscal policy to boost domestic demand, and promote high - quality development through innovation and industrial upgrading. [3][83] - The sudden strike at mines in northern Chile has intensified disturbances in concentrate supply. Global refined copper production capacity may enter a contraction phase, and domestic imports have decreased month - on - month. At the consumption end, traditional industries face weak demand at the end of the year, while emerging industries offer significant growth potential. Non - US inventories overseas are declining, and US copper inventories are rising, accounting for over 50%. [3][83] - In the third quarter, both the Chinese and US economies showed strong resilience. The global AI - driven industrial revolution has created vast demand prospects for metals. The Fed's interest rate cut has increased market risk appetite. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise strongly in January, and attention should be paid to the internal linkages among gold, silver, and copper. [3][83] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 December Copper Market Review - In December 2025, copper prices accelerated upward. LME copper rose from a low of around $11,120 to $12,960, and SHFE copper soared from 87,500 to around 102,500. By December 31, LME copper closed at $10,901.5/ton with a monthly increase of 5.8%, and SHFE copper closed at 87,010 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 4.7%. The weak US dollar and tight fundamentals supported the price increase. [8] - Domestic refined copper terminal consumption faced downward pressure in December. Traditional industries had low - growth consumption, while emerging industries showed good demand. Social inventories rebounded slightly to around 200,000 tons at the end of December, and the spot premium shifted to a deep discount. It is predicted that traditional industries will remain seasonally sluggish in January 2026, while emerging industries will have certain resilience. [10][11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Fed's New Chairman Nomination and US Third - Quarter Economic Growth - After the Fed cut interest rates in December as expected, the federal funds rate is now in the 3.5% - 3.75% range. The new dot - plot shows one rate cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively. Trump will announce a new Fed chairman in early January, and the most likely candidate, Kevin Hassett, may support rate cuts. [13][14] - In November, the US CPI was +2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was +2.6% year - on - year. The US GDP in the third quarter grew 4.3% year - on - year after inflation adjustment. However, the government shutdown may affect the fourth - quarter economy. It is expected that the Fed may pause rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026. [15] 3.2.2 Lack of Recovery in US Manufacturing and Continued Contraction in Eurozone Manufacturing - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in November shrank to 48.2, below the boom - bust line of 50 for the ninth consecutive month, indicating weak market demand. [16] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in December was 49.2, lower than expected. Germany's manufacturing output contraction was a major drag, and although France's manufacturing PMI rebounded, its service PMI declined. The ECB maintained key interest rates in December, and the eurozone economy is in a weak recovery. [16][17] 3.2.3 Flexible Use of Reserve - Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts and Expansion of "National Subsidies" in 2026 - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. [18] - In 2026, "national subsidies" will cover four categories: car scrapping, car replacement, home appliances and digital products, and smart products. The scope and subsidy intensity have changed compared to 2025. It is expected that the policy will shift from pure commodity subsidies to a dual - drive model including service consumption. [19] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Slow Resumption of Overseas Interrupted Mines and Further Decline in 2026 Long - Term TC Benchmark Price - The 2026 copper concentrate long - term TC/RC benchmark price was set at $0/dry ton and $0/lb, hitting a new low. The global copper concentrate supply growth in 2026 is expected to be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of interrupted mines and postponed new mine projects. [22] - A strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile may cause losses of up to $160 million. Some mines such as Oyu Tolgoi, QB, and KFM have production increases or expansion plans. [23][24] 3.3.2 Flat Domestic Refined Copper Production in November and Hurdles in Overseas Refined Copper Capacity Release - In November, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1034 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. The stable production was due to high profits from by - products and sufficient copper concentrate imports. The 125,000 - ton cathode copper refining project of Sichuan Liangshan Copper will start production in March 2026. [32] - Overseas, some smelters have been shut down or reduced production due to low processing fees. For example, Glencore's PASAR and Altonorte smelters have stopped production. Some projects' production increases are postponed, and overall, overseas refined copper capacity release will slow down. [33] 3.3.3 Widening Year - on - Year Decline in Refined Copper Imports and Month - on - Month Rebound in Scrap Copper Imports - From January to November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 19% year - on - year, and refined copper imports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year. In November, imports dropped significantly due to high US copper tariffs and port congestion. [53] - From January to November, scrap copper imports increased by 3.63% year - on - year. China will expand scrap copper imports from Southeast Asia and strengthen the recycling and utilization of scrap copper. However, policies have increased the tax burden on scrap copper rod enterprises, leading to supply tightening. [55] 3.3.4 Rising COMEX Inventories and Rebound of Domestic Social Inventories from Low Levels - Since December, domestic inventories have rebounded from low levels, and global visible inventories have continued to rise. COMEX copper inventories have exceeded 50% of the global total. The increase in domestic inventories is due to high copper prices suppressing consumption and reduced overseas supply. It is expected that global visible inventories will remain high and volatile in January 2026. [59][60][61] 3.3.5 Weak Demand in Traditional Industries and Large Growth Potential in Emerging Industries - In the power grid, investment growth has slowed, and the demand for copper in January 2026 may be restricted. [64][67] - In the photovoltaic and wind power sectors, the photovoltaic industry is in a critical stage of anti - involution, and wind power growth has marginally rebounded. However, the copper consumption in the wind and solar industries may decline by about 10% this year. [68][70] - The real estate market is still at the bottom, with investment, construction, and sales data showing a downward trend. The demand for copper is expected to remain low in January 2026. [71][72] - The air - conditioning industry is in adjustment. Domestic sales are under pressure in the short term, but the "trade - in" policy in 2026 will promote the industry's upgrade. [73][74] - The new - energy vehicle industry has maintained high - speed growth. Although the subsidy policy will change in 2026, the market demand space is still large, and sales are expected to maintain a high - speed growth in January 2026. [75][76][77] - The data center industry is accelerating due to AI computing power demand. It is expected that the copper consumption in data centers will increase by about 1.05 million tons in 2026. [78][79] 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the Fed is in an easing cycle, and China will implement expansionary policies. Fundamentally, supply disturbances intensify, and consumption shows a differentiation between traditional and emerging industries. It is predicted that copper prices will continue to rise strongly in January 2026, and attention should be paid to the internal linkages among gold, silver, and copper. [83]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金银铜重回涨势，A 股迎来开门红 海外方面，美国 12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 由 48.2 降至 47.9，弱于预期且连续 10 个月处于 收缩区间，分项来看，主要受库存加速去化拖累，新订单与出口需求持续偏弱，就业继续下 降但降幅放缓；支付价格指数维持在 58.5，显示价格压力仍具黏性。PMI 下行鉴于客户库存 同样偏低，需求短期存在边际修复空间。在美逮捕委总统后，市场风偏并未走弱，道指创下 历史新高，美指震荡走高至 98.4，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.16%，金属价格在岁末年初调整震 荡后重回上行，金价涨超 2%，银价涨超 5%，铜价涨幅近 5%、首次站上 13,000 美元/吨， 在智利铜矿罢工、市场对中期供应缺口的预期以及 LME 认证库存偏低的共同作用下，供应 端忧虑迅速升温。 国内方面，中国 12 月 RatingDog 服务业 PMI 维持在 52，服务业扩张已连续三年延续， 显示内需端具备一定韧性；但新出口订单在 11 月短暂修复后再度回落至收缩区间， ...

宏观：美国升级对委内瑞拉行动，中国 12 月 PMI 温和回升 海外方面，特朗普宣布已抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并提出由美方监管过渡政府的设想， 事件迅速将委内瑞拉风险由长期制裁博弈升级为直接政权冲击。尽管特朗普宣称将推动美国 石油公司重金介入、恢复原油生产，但短期市场交易的核心仍是不确定性本身：政权真空预 期上升、对抗加剧，原油出口受扰，油市风险溢价抬升，全球风险偏好承压。本周关注 12 月 ISM 制造业 PMI，美国 12 月 ADP、非农就业数据，将是一次美国经济基本面的再校准。 国内方面，12 月制造业 PMI 重返 50 上方，非制造业与综合 PMI 同步回升，显示 2025 年末经济景气边际企稳，但性质仍偏阶段性修复而非趋势反转。多数行业 PMI 改善， 生产与新订单同步回暖，供需两端出现低位修复迹象；结构上，大型企业率先回到扩张区间， 是本轮改善的主要支撑，而中小企业仍处收缩区间；生产、订单与配送改善、库存降幅收窄， 但用工景气继续走弱，反映企业以谨慎恢复产出为主，尚未进入扩招阶段。建筑业及服务业 PMI 仍处于历年同期偏低水平，表明传统动能与消费修复仍有空间。中国基金销售费用管 理新规正式落地 ...