1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's second - round tariffs added eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil, causing the Brazilian real to fall nearly 3%. The EU is negotiating with the US to cut tariffs and set quotas. The Fed's June minutes eased market concerns, and the "US Treasury issuance wave" risk eased, leading to a decline in the 10Y US Treasury yield and a weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - Domestically, in June, CPI turned positive year - on - year to 0.1%, and core CPI rebounded. PPI's decline widened to - 3.6%. The State Council issued a document to strengthen "stable employment". The economy is in a stage of mild and narrow - range fluctuations and policy expectation fermentation. A - shares opened higher and closed lower, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was significant [2]. - For precious metals, the second wave of tariff letters affected the market. Gold prices were supported by trade tensions but restricted by the high - level US dollar index. The precious metals market is currently lack of strong driving forces and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][4]. - In the copper market, Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper boosted US copper prices but pressured Shanghai copper. The Fed's decision on interest rate cuts is still uncertain, and the short - term volatility of US copper is expected to increase [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upside space due to the increase in supply and the start of the consumption off - season. Alumina shows a short - term strength, but its long - term upside is restricted by the expected oversupply [7][8][9]. - Zinc prices are supported by the weakening US dollar, but the fundamentals are weak with stable supply and weak demand. Lead prices lack strong upward momentum due to limited demand improvement. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate sideways in the short term due to weak fundamentals [10][11][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term under the influence of supply contraction and new policies. Steel prices are expected to rebound with a warm market sentiment, while iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [14][16][18]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, waiting for the MPOB report [19][20][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's new tariff policy added eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil. The EU is negotiating with the US. The Fed's June minutes eased market concerns, and the 10Y US Treasury yield fell to 4.33%, the US dollar index weakened, and gold prices rose [1]. - Domestic: In June, CPI turned positive year - on - year to 0.1%, core CPI rebounded, and PPI's decline widened to - 3.6%. The State Council strengthened "stable employment" policies. A - shares opened higher and closed lower, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices closed mixed on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.17% to $3322.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce. The market is focused on trade negotiations, and the precious metals market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's main contract fell sharply, while London copper remained volatile at a high level. Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper boosted US copper prices but may harm the US economy. The short - term volatility of US copper is expected to increase [5]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. London aluminum closed at $2602 per ton, up 0.97%. Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upside space due to supply increase and consumption off - season [7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3130 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The spot market is currently favorable, but the long - term upside is restricted by the expected oversupply [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated narrowly during the day and strongly at night. Zinc prices are supported by the weakening US dollar, but the fundamentals are weak [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead's main contract recovered part of its gains during the day and closed higher at night. Lead prices lack strong upward momentum due to limited demand improvement [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin's main contract recovered after hitting the bottom during the day and fluctuated narrowly at night. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate sideways in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply is weak, and the demand is improving slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. 3.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. The market sentiment is warm, but the supply - demand contradiction is slowly accumulating. Steel prices are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. The market sentiment is boosted by policies, and the supply pressure is reduced. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. 3.12 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil) - For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans fell, and the short - term trend is expected to fluctuate. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, waiting for the MPOB report [19][20][21]. 3.13 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on July 9, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [22]. 3.14 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes and inventory data of various metals from July 8 to July 9, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and precious metals [23][24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250709 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：铜、药、半导体关税将至，A 股反弹接近前高 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续修复，6 月纽约联储一年期通胀预期降至五个月低点 3%， 居民裁员担忧减轻。关税加征与谈判节奏趋稳，市场避险情绪缓解，美国财长与日本首席谈 判代表通话，或于下周访日。特朗普宣布拟加征铜关税 50%，药品关税最高达 200%，制药 业获 18 个月调整缓冲期，半导体关税即将公布，对欧盟关税信函或将两日内发出。商务部 长卢特尼克称，将在未来两天发出 15–20 封关税信函，铜关税最快 7 月下旬生效。美元指 数回升至 97.7，10Y 美债利率站上 4.4%，美股震荡走平，金价回吐涨幅下破 3300 点位，铜 价受关税消息影响，美铜一度飙升 16%，伦铜则跌超 2%。 国内：A 股放量上涨，上证指数逼近 3500 关口，两市成交额回升至 1.47 万亿，风格上 创业板、科创 50 表现占优，行业上光伏、电池、多元金融板块领涨， ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250708 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普新关税引发避险情绪，国内股市缩量调整 海外方面，特朗普签署行政令，将"对等"关税生效日期从 7 月 9 日延至 8 月 1 日，并 正式致函 14 国通知大幅加税，日韩商品将被征收 25%关税，惩罚性措施不与此前汽车、钢 铝关税叠加，信函暗示仍留谈判空间，同时警告报复将遭对等回应。市场风险偏好显著回落， 美股下挫近 1%；10 年期美债利率回升至 4.38%；美元指数盘中最高升至 97.6，表现强势。 避险情绪推动金价 V 型反弹，铜价走弱收跌，油价收涨。关税博弈再度升温，市场敏感度上 升，短期关注日韩等被加征对象的应对，总体而言扰动幅度预计将远小于 4 月。 国内：经济基本面延续"低通胀，弱复苏"格局，产业优化政策主导市场，近期将公布 二季度经济数据以及召开关于经济主题的政治局会议。A 股缩量调整，两市成交额回落至 1.23 万亿，风格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The IMF has lowered the global economic growth rate forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, and trade policy uncertainty will disrupt the global supply chain. The Fed may be cautious about the timing of interest rate cuts, while the ECB may end the easing cycle. China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year [4]. - In terms of supply, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to be only 1.7% in 2025 and further decline to 1.4% in 2026. The global refined copper supply growth rate will drop to 2% in 2025. In the second half of the year, domestic small and medium - sized smelters may face production cut risks, and the release of new global refined copper production capacity will be significantly limited [4]. - In terms of demand, copper has become a key strategic reserve resource in the context of global AI and electrification transformation. The global refined copper consumption growth rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2025, and the domestic growth rate will be 3.4% [4]. - The copper price center is expected to continue to rise in the second half of this year, with the risk of periodic high - level corrections due to overseas macro disturbances. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The main operating range of SHFE copper is expected to be 77,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is 9,500 - 10,500 US dollars/ton [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the First - Half Market in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, copper prices showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the first quarter, SHFE copper rose from a low of 73,000 to 83,000 due to supply concerns and macro - economic factors. In the second quarter, prices fluctuated due to trade policy uncertainties, and then rebounded after the Sino - US trade negotiation [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased. The spot premium changed from discount to premium. In the second half of the year, domestic refined copper spot premium is expected to remain in the premium range, with the center of premium moving up [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Global Trade Situation Eases, and the US Economy Faces Stagflation Risks - The IMF has lowered the economic growth forecasts of major economies in 2025. The Sino - US trade negotiation has reached a preliminary consensus, but the tariff measures after the 90 - day suspension period are uncertain. The US economy has the risk of stagflation, while the eurozone economy shows a weak recovery [15][16]. 2.2 The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise, and the ECB May Slow Down the Rate - Cutting Pace - The Fed may have 1 - 2 small interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting in September. The ECB cut interest rates in June. The future monetary policies of both central banks will be affected by trade policies and economic data [17][19]. 2.3 Strengthen the Domestic Circulation System, and the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Remains Moderately Loose - China's economy faced challenges in the first half of the year. The central bank implemented a series of measures to support the economy. China's economy showed resilience in the first half, and the economic structure is expected to continue to optimize in the second half [21][22]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis 3.1 The Global Concentrate Shortage Exceeds Expectations, and Chinese Enterprises Actively Explore Copper Ore Resources - In the first half of 2025, both Chinese and foreign capital accelerated the development of copper resources. However, the output of major mines was affected by various factors, and the shortage of copper concentrates is expected to exceed market expectations in 2025 - 2026 [25][27]. 3.2 The Global Copper Concentrate Growth Rate in 2025 is Expected to Drop to 1.7% - The planned global copper ore supply increment in 2025 is 115.5 million tons, but the actual increment is expected to be 70 - 80 million tons, with a growth rate dropping to 3%. Considering major interference factors, the actual supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.7% and further decline in 2026 [31][33]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis 4.1 Domestic Refined Copper Production Will Slow Down in the Second Half of the Year, and the Annual Year - on - Year Growth Rate May Drop to 4.5% - In the first half of 2025, domestic refined copper output was high, but more than 30% of smelters cut production to some extent. The actual output increment may be significantly lower than expected, and the annual growth rate is expected to slow down to 4.5% [41][43]. 4.2 The Release of Overseas Refined Copper Production in 2025 is Very Slow - Overseas new refined copper smelting capacity in 2025 is only 62 million tons, and the actual output is quite limited. The actual increment is expected to be about 15 million tons [45][46]. 4.3 Refined Copper Imports Will Remain at a Low Level in the Second Half of the Year, and Copper Has Become a Strategic Resource in the Great - Power Game - From January to May 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain at 25 - 28 million tons per month, and the annual imports will drop significantly compared with last year [48][49]. 4.4 Domestic Scrap Copper Supply is Generally Stable, and Southeast Asia May Fill the Gap in US Scrap Copper Imports - From January to May 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, with Southeast Asian imports filling the gap left by the US [66][69]. 4.5 LME Inventories Plummeted by More Than 70% in the First Half of the Year, and the Tight - Balance Reality Has Lowered the Global Inventory Center - As of June 27, global visible inventories decreased significantly. LME inventories are at a low level with a risk of squeezing, while COMEX inventories are rising. Domestic inventories are expected to remain low in the second half of the year [73][75]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis 5.1 This Year's Grid Investment Scale is Expected to Exceed 800 Billion, and the New UHV Grid System is Upgrading at an Accelerated Pace - The planned grid investment in 2025 is expected to reach 825 billion, with an increase of 220 billion compared with 2024. The copper consumption growth rate in grid investment is expected to be 3 - 4% [77]. 5.2 The Real Estate Market is Bottoming Out, and the Real Estate Regulation Policies are Intensifying - The real estate market showed a decline in the first five months of 2025, but the price decline margin narrowed. The market is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, with a slight decline in copper consumption growth rate [78][80]. 5.3 The "Two New" Policies Drive the Accelerated Production and Sales of Air - Conditioners - From January to May 2025, air - conditioner production and sales increased year - on - year. However, due to various factors, the production scale may be adjusted in the third quarter, and the export may decline [81][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the nickel market was characterized by a bearish fundamental outlook, with frequent policy disturbances leading to periodic price rebounds. The macro - economic expectations were volatile, but nickel prices were largely desensitized. - In the second half, the U.S. economic outlook remains unclear with stagflation risks. Domestically, policies focus on supply, lacking determination to improve consumption. In the industry, Indonesia and the Philippines aim to control nickel mines, and the nickel ore market may not ease this year. The nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak market reality and strong cost pressure. - It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will trade between 115,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, and LME nickel will fluctuate between 14,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [3][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - Half Review - In the first half of 2025, the bearish fundamental logic prevailed. Overseas policy disturbances were frequent, such as the Philippines' plan to ban nickel ore exports and Indonesia's series of policies on mineral resources. Trump's global tariff policy in April led to a spread of pessimistic expectations. In June, the cancellation of the Philippines' nickel ore export ban and Indonesia's increase in RKAB nickel ore approvals, along with weak consumption, accelerated the decline of nickel prices [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 United States - In the first half, the U.S. faced stagflation risks. The real GDP in Q1 was - 0.5%, affected by increased imports and weakened personal consumption. Inflation showed a complex trend, with the CPI rising slightly in May. Fiscal support boosted residents' consumption, but the "Big and Beautiful" bill may impact residents' income. The tariff policy was implemented, and trade negotiations were slow [13][14][15]. - In the second half, tariffs and crude oil may support high inflation, while weak consumption may drag down economic growth [16][17]. 2.2 China - In the first half, the domestic labor market improved, with the unemployment rate decreasing and fiscal personal income tax increasing. Social consumption showed some recovery, but there was a lack of strong autonomous consumption. Corporate profits improved with structural differentiation, and private - sector industrial enterprises performed better [18][19]. - In the second half, the situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to policy directions [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Policy Disturbances and Nickel Ore Shortage - In the first half, overseas nickel ore resources were scarce. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore rose by 23.53%. The Philippines attempted to ban nickel ore exports, and Indonesia increased policy intervention. China's nickel ore imports decreased from January to May, and port inventories were lower than seasonal levels [23][24][25]. 3.2 Sufficient Supply and Resource Flow to LME - In the first half, domestic pure - nickel production increased significantly, with new production capacity coming online. Pure - nickel imports mainly came from Russia and South Africa, and exports increased, with resources flowing to the LME. The proportion of LME Asian warehouse resources increased [27][28]. 3.3 Nickel Iron: First Rise then Fall with High Cost Pressure - In the first half, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants first rose then fell. China's nickel - iron imports mainly came from Indonesia. In the second half, new production capacity will be put into operation, but demand may remain weak, and prices may oscillate at a low level [30][31]. 3.4 Stable Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price with Limited Consumption Growth - In the first half, domestic sulfuric acid nickel production decreased slightly, and imports increased slightly. The price first rose then fell. In the second half, consumption may not improve significantly due to weak demand expectations [33]. 3.5 Low - Level Stainless Steel Consumption and Slow De - stocking - In the first half, stainless - steel prices fluctuated with the real - estate market. Production increased, but inventory remained high. In the second half, the fundamental situation may remain weak, and trade policies may provide short - term support [35][36]. 3.6 Doubtful Terminal Consumption Resilience and Policy - Driven Car - Manufacturer Production Cut - In the first half, domestic new - energy vehicle production and sales increased, mainly driven by subsidy policies. In the second half, domestic demand may be affected by the end of subsidies and corporate cash - flow pressure. Overseas, the growth of new - energy vehicle consumption in Europe and the U.S. may slow down [39][40][41]. 3.7 Excess Resources Flow Outward, and Domestic Inventory Remains Stable - In the first half, pure - nickel inventory first increased then decreased, with resources flowing to the LME. In the second half, due to narrowed export profits, domestic inventory may increase [43][44]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, keeping pure - nickel supply at a relatively high level (neutral). - Demand: The real - estate market continues to bottom out, and new - energy consumption lacks independent driving force, resulting in limited demand growth (neutral). - Cost: Nickel ore shortage due to policy pressure provides strong cost support (bullish). - Macroeconomics: The U.S. stagflation expectation persists, and domestic deflation pressure may continue (bearish). Overall, the nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak reality and strong cost [45].

棕榈油周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 美生柴提振国内油脂 棕榈油震荡收涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨50收于4062林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.25%；棕榈油09合约涨96收于8472元/吨，涨幅1.15%； 豆油09合约跌58收于7944元/吨，跌幅0.72%；菜油09合约 涨141收于9607元/吨，涨幅1.49%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.92 收于54. ...

工业硅周报 反内卷会议落幕，工业硅企稳反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 2025 年 7 月 7 日 ⚫ 上周工业硅震荡上行，主因工信部及中央财经委会议强调 将综合治理光伏产业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退 出，聚焦加快行业高质量发展路径，大幅提振市场信心。 供应来看，新疆地区开工率大幅降至5成，川滇地区丰水 期开工率复苏有限，内蒙和甘肃皆有装置停产，供应端维 持弱势下行；从需求侧来 ...

2024 年 7 月 7 日 碳酸锂半年报 产能出清加速 锂价弱势震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 ⚫ 上半年，碳酸锂价格在年初受下游节前补库驱动有 所反弹，节后，新能源汽车终端销量持续下滑。上游 锂盐厂大幅降本增效，盘面C结构配合款月差为冶炼 企业提供舒适套保环境，锂盐产量快速爬坡，现货库 存累库，锂价随之进入下行。6月，在锂价新低背景 下，锂盐产量有明显收缩。材料厂下旬积极补库，下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 23 to close at 1048.25 cents per bushel, a 2.24% increase; the September soybean meal contract rose 8 to close at 2954 yuan per ton, a 0.27% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to 2820 yuan per ton, a 0.27% increase; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 38 to 2597 yuan per ton, a 1.48% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 80 to 2490 yuan per ton, a 3.32% increase [4]. - The US soybeans fluctuated and rose during the week, mainly due to the passage and signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US. The provisions related to biodiesel tax will ban the use of raw materials outside North America for the production of 45Z tax credits for biofuel production, which is beneficial to expanding the demand for US soybean oil. Soybean meal is constrained by the expectation of loose supply, and the spot price is under pressure with limited rebound space. The Dalian soybean meal fluctuated narrowly at a low level during the week, mainly limited by the near - term supply pressure and supported by the expectation of tight supply in the long - term. The rapeseed meal in Canada is generally stronger than soybean meal due to less precipitation in the rapeseed production area [4][7]. - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US is beneficial to increasing the demand for US soybean oil and supporting the strength of US soybeans. The cumulative precipitation in the production area in the next two weeks is slightly higher than the normal level, but there is an expectation of less precipitation in the Midwest from the 13th to the 20th. Continuously monitor the weather changes. The less precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed production area and poor soil moisture support the rapeseed meal. The domestic soybean meal is still in the process of inventory accumulation, and the overall spot supply is loose. The soybeans for the October - December shipping schedule in China have not been purchased yet, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter. Although there are signs of easing in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, there may be repeated situations. Pay attention to the procurement dynamics of US soybeans. In addition, a report on the adjustment of the new - year US soybean balance sheet is about to be released. Wait for the guidance of the report. Overall, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data | Contract | July 4 | June 27 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1048.25 | 1025.25 | 23.00 | 2.24% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 465.00 | 456.00 | 9.00 | 1.97% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 448.00 | 449.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.22% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 96.10 | 62.29 | - 158.40 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2954.00 | 2946.00 | 8.00 | 0.27% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2597.00 | 2559.00 | 38.00 | 1.48% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 357.00 | 387.00 | - 30.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2820.00 | 2800.00 | 20.00 | 0.71% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2820.00 | 2800.00 | 20.00 | 0.71% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 134.00 | - 146.00 | 12.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US Department of Agriculture's end - of - June report was released, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, overall neutral. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly lower than market expectations. One reason is the concern about Sino - US trade frictions, and US farmers switched to other crops. Another reason is that there was excessive precipitation in the non - core southern regions of the US, the sowing progress was slow, and some areas abandoned sowing, resulting in a slight decline in the planting area. The quarterly inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels. The large quarterly inventory suppresses the near - term contracts, while the long - term contracts are supported by the decline in the area [8]. - According to the USDA crop growth report, as of the week of June 29, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and lower than 67% in the same period last year. As of that week, the emergence rate of US soybeans was 94%, compared with 90% in the previous week, 94% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 95%. As of that week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 17%, compared with 8% in the previous week, 18% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16%. The pod - setting rate of US soybeans was 3%, the same as in the same period last year and a five - year average of 2%. As of the week of July 1, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 12% in the previous week and 9% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production area is generally slightly higher than the average level, but there is an expectation of reduced precipitation from July 13th to 19th [8][9]. - As of the week of June 26, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current year increased by 462,000 tons, compared with 403,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 year were 49.94 million tons, with a sales progress of 99.2%, compared with 96.8% in the same period last year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 year in that week were 239,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 1.588 million tons, compared with 1.376 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - The USDA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in May 2025 was 6.11 million tons, compared with 6.07 million tons in the previous month and 5.75 million tons in the same period last year. As of now, the cumulative crushing volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 year has increased by 5.84% year - on - year, generally in line with the annual expectation [9]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in the US was $2.42 per bushel, an 8% decrease from the previous week. For reference, the average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $263.10 per short ton, equivalent to $6.12 per bushel. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.78 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.35 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.31 per bushel, compared with $10.66 per bushel a week ago [10]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to reach 13.93 million tons, up from the previous expectation of 13.83 million tons. The StoneX institution raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 168.75 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 168.25 million tons [10]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.6587 million tons, an increase of 278,800 tons from the previous week and 1.0002 million tons more than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, an increase of 182,700 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 361,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The unfulfilled contracts were 3.323 million tons, a decrease of 795,600 tons from the previous week and 784,000 tons less than the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.088 million tons, an increase of 255,000 tons from the previous week and 1.0141 million tons more than the same period last year. As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China was 165,740 tons, including 49,980 tons of spot trading and 115,760 tons of forward trading, compared with an average daily trading volume of 140,180 tons in the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 187,670 tons, compared with 195,700 tons in the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, compared with 2.4878 million tons in the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 7.91 days, compared with 7.75 days in the previous week [11]. 3. Industry News - Data released by the US Energy Information Administration shows that the amount of soybean oil used for biofuel production in the US in April dropped to 829 million pounds. In March, the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production was 832 million pounds. Soybean oil remains the largest biodiesel raw material in the US [13]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso State announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State from June 23rd to 27th was 472.58 reais per ton, compared with 493.39 reais per ton in the previous week. During that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1537.75 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5757.33 reais per ton [13]. - Data from the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina shows that in the first six months of this year, Argentina exported a record 64.5 million tons of grains and their derivatives, and the export volume in June also broke the monthly export record. Exporters rushed to export before the increase in export tax rates for many key agricultural products on July 1 [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) expects the soybean planting area in India this year to decrease by about 5%. The association said that this is mainly because many farmers switched to other alternative crops such as corn, red millet, and cotton, as soybeans had poor returns due to low market prices in the past two consecutive years. SOPA Executive Director DN Pathak said: "The overall decline may be around 5%, but a better estimate can only be obtained after sowing is completed." The association said that the soybean planting area last year was about 11.748 million hectares [14]. - According to foreign news, data released by the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food of Argentina shows that as of the week of June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. During that week, local oil mills purchased 1.1031 million tons, and the export industry purchased 576,200 tons. In addition, Argentine farmers sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 264,400 tons. During that week, local oil mills purchased 49,900 tons, and the export industry purchased 0 tons. The total sales of soybeans of all years in that week were 1.7866 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 64.7278 million tons. As of June 25, the cumulative export sales registration volume of 2024/25 soybeans was 5.691 million tons, and that of 2025/26 soybeans was 0 tons [14]. - Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission shows that as of the week of June 29, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 47.16% from the previous week to 173,500 tons, compared with 117,900 tons in the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase compared with 6.0339 million tons in the same period of the previous year. As of June 29, the commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 1.2112 million tons [15]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in its weekly crop report that Argentina has completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest, with a final output of 50.3 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous year [15]. 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rate trends, management fund CBOT net positions, soybean meal weekly average daily pick - up volume, etc., which visually show the price trends, trading data, and crop growth - related data of soybeans and soybean meal [16][18][24][41].