Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's reaction to "anti - involution" and the elimination of old - fashioned production capacity has been overheated, and there is a need for sentiment adjustment. The upward pressure on alumina futures at high levels has increased. However, the short - term supply and demand fundamentals are stable, the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a low level, and the low warehouse receipts may limit the decline of alumina prices next week when entering the delivery month [2][6] - The supply of alumina in the south has become more tight due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern alumina plant, while the supply in the north is relatively loose. The theoretical starting capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the acceptance of high - priced alumina by electrolytic aluminum plants has improved, leading to a slight improvement in consumption. Spot holders are strongly supporting prices, and the spot price continues to rise [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data | Data Type | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/25 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3133 | 3428 | 295 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3202 | 3255 | 53 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 51 | - 172 | - 223 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 368 | 376 | 8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 85.12 | - 138.62 | - 53.5 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 6922 | 9031 | 2109 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 73 | 73 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 2. Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 9.42% last week, closing at 3428 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the alumina spot market was reported at 3255 yuan/ton on Friday, up 53 yuan/ton from last week [4] - The supply shortage of bauxite continues, and the price is slightly adjusted. The price of imported ores is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the impact of overseas situations on China's imported ore market and spot trading [4] - The starting capacity of alumina is basically stable. As of July 24, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the starting capacity was 93.2 million tons, and the starting rate was 81.18% [4] - The theoretical starting capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has increased slightly, and the demand for alumina has theoretically increased [4] - The warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 2109 tons to 0.9 million tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][4][6] 3. Market Outlook - The news that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity in ten industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical industries has continuously triggered expectations of supply - side interference, and the bullish sentiment for alumina is high [2][6] - The short - term supply and demand fundamentals are stable, the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a low level, and the high premium of deliverable goods in the spot market makes it difficult to create warehouse receipts. The low warehouse receipts may limit the decline of alumina prices when entering the delivery month next week [2][6] 4. Industry News - A large - scale alumina plant in Shanxi plans to end the previous production cut at the end of the month and resume full - capacity operation, with the operating capacity increasing to 2.8 million tons [7] - An alumina enterprise in Shandong plans to reach full - capacity production in early August, with a resumption of production capacity of about 350,000 tons [7] - From January to June 2025, China imported a total of 103.4 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year decrease of 17.71%, and imported 101,300 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 168.44%. The net import of alumina in June was - 69,700 tons [7] 5. Related Charts - The report includes charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina's current - month to continuous - first spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [9][10][12][14][17][20][21]

贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 贸易局势缓和，金银冲高回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 近期美国与其他国家的贸易谈判局势的变化是影响贵金 属市场的主要因素，金银价格走势随着谈判形势的紧张与 缓和的变化而波动。上周三美国与日本关税谈判达成协 议，市场对全球贸易局势趋稳的预期削弱了避险情绪，避 险资产贵金属走势承压。上周五受到美欧贸易谈判积极进 展和美元指数反弹的共同压制，贵金属价格再度下挫。 ⚫ 美国对日本实施的"对等关税"税率将从25%下调至15%， 该协议还包括日本向美 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 市场情绪降温 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 钢价震荡走势 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 二、行情评述 ⚫ 宏观面： 国务院国资委：要带头抵制"内卷式"竞争， 加强重组整合，推动国有资本优化配置，形成新的国有 资本布局结构。国家能源局综合司近日发布了《关于组 织开展煤矿生产情况核查促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通 知》。《通知》提到，今年以来，部分煤矿企业"以量 补价"，超公告产能组织生产， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead price of the main SHFE contract fluctuated narrowly last week. Macroscopically, the tariff negotiation made progress, and the domestic anti - involution policy expectation was positive, leading to a good market risk preference. Fundamentally, the supply of lead concentrates and waste batteries did not improve much, and the processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates decreased in August, while the price of waste batteries increased slightly, providing strong cost support for the lead price. On the smelting side, the production of some smelters in Henan had not recovered, and the operating rate of electrolytic lead smelters decreased. The production of secondary lead smelters was stable, but the losses expanded after the lead price dropped. On the demand side, some countries in the Middle East imposed tariffs on China's lead - acid battery exports, and the US tariff on Vietnam also affected China's battery exports. The current consumption peak season did not improve significantly, and the downstream maintained a rigid - demand purchasing rhythm. Overall, the favorable macro - environment and cost support boosted the lead price, but stable smelter production, weakened battery export expectations, and under - expected peak - season consumption dragged down the lead price. In the short term, with multiple factors in play, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, waiting for new variables [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | July 18th | July 25th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16820 | 16955 | 135 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2011.5 | 2020.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.36 | 8.39 | 0.03 | | | SHFE Inventory | 62335 | 63254 | 919 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268400 | 266275 | - 2125 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 6.9 | 7.14 | 0.24 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 195 | - 165 | 30 | Yuan/ton | [4] 2. Market Review - The main SHFE lead contract PB2509 fluctuated narrowly last week. Supported by the warm atmosphere in the domestic commodity market and suppressed by high inventories, the contract finally closed at 16955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.65%. On Friday night, it rose first and then fell. Affected by the weak US dollar, LME lead continued to rebound, but was slightly adjusted in the second half of the week due to warehouse receipts and the US dollar's stabilization. It finally closed at 2020.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%. - In the spot market as of July 25th, the price of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets was reported at a discount to relevant contracts. The supply of ex - factory electrolytic lead was limited, and the price was at a premium, while the premium of some high - priced offers decreased. The price of secondary lead was reported at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. - In terms of inventory, as of July 25th, the LME weekly inventory was 266275 tons, a weekly decrease of 2125 tons; the SHFE inventory was 63254 tons, an increase of 919 tons from the previous week. As of July 24th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 7.14 million tons, an increase of 100 tons from Monday and 0.24 million tons from last Thursday. [5][6] 3. Industry News - In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal degree, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the average imported ore processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. - In June, lead ingot imports were 0.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons from May, a month - on - month decrease of 44.97% and a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. Lead ingot exports were 0.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from May, a month - on - month decrease of 35.60% and a year - on - year increase of 142.54%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in June was 18.7446 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory status, lead price premium and discount, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss. [10][12][13]

铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 供需变化不大 情绪主导震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 ⚫ 需求端：上周新增1座高炉复产，1座高炉检修，铁水 产量环比小幅减少。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加1.13个百分 点，日均铁水产量 242.23万吨，环比上周减少0.21 万吨，同比去年增加2.62万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外发运量环比小幅回升，处于近三年 同期偏高水平。上周全球铁矿石发运总量3109.1万 吨，环比增加122.0万吨。库存方面，全国47个港口 进口铁矿库存14395.68万吨，环比增加14.17万吨； 日均疏港量329.33万吨，降9.43万吨。 ⚫ 总体上，上周新增1座高炉复产，1座高炉检修，铁水 产量环比小幅减少。供应端，上周海外发运量环比小 幅回升，处于近三年同期偏高水 ...

联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250725 宏观：7 月欧央行按兵不动， A 股与商品情绪积极 海外方面，美国景气喜忧参半，7 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 重陷萎缩 49.5，服务业 PMI 创 年内新高 55.2，通胀压力上升，企业信心降至两年半低点；上周初请失业金人数连续第六周 下降，续请维持高位。欧盟称与美达成贸易协议"指日可待"，但已批准对 930 亿欧元美国 产品征收最高 30%的反制关税，以备谈判破裂。欧洲央行维持利率不变，并对经济评估"温 和乐观"，市场对进一步降息预期降温，9 月降息概率跌至 30%以下。拉加德未排除未来加 息可能性，称密切关注美欧关税谈判进展。随着多国关税路径逐步明朗，市场风险偏好小幅 抬升，美股新高，金价回调，美元指数反弹至 97.5，铜价收跌。 国内：股市与商品市场情绪延续积极，A 股冲高站上 3600 点，两市成交维持在 1.9 万 亿元附近，双创板块领涨，整体赚钱效应增强。在产业链提价与行业组织 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250724 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：全球关税路径趋明，中美下周重启谈判 海外方面，对等关税有所进展，①欧媒称美欧接近达成关税协议，拟设 15%基准税率、 部分行业豁免；②特朗普称将对多数国家征收 15%-50%关税，若主要国家开放市场，美国 愿意取消关税；③美中拟下周斯德哥尔摩会谈，争取 8 月 12 日前达成协议。美财长贝森特 称美联储预测带有政治偏见，特朗普再度施压鲍威尔，要求尽快降息，目前 9 月降息概率升 至 61%。随着多国关税路径逐步明朗，市场风险偏好上升，标普 500 再创新高，金价回调， 美元指数偏弱，铜价震荡收涨。当前美国基本面依然稳健，美联储独立性与关税博弈构成主 要不确定性来源，今日关注 7 月 PMI 数据。 国内：股市与商品市场情绪依旧积极，但多空博弈加剧，情绪或临近阶段性高点。A 股 冲高回落，两市成交维持 1.9 万亿，科创 50、上证 50 领涨，整体赚钱效应趋弱，内需商品 出现部分获利了结迹象。 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250723 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 国内：1.2 万亿西藏水电工程及陆续披露的行业供给端优化政策点燃市场情绪，焦煤、 多晶硅、玻璃等内需商品延续强势上涨，上证指数继续上台阶、站上 3580，两市成交额回升 至 1.93 万亿，市场成交活跃，短期需要警惕情绪见顶带来的回调。目前海外风险平静、经 济读数超预期、政策预期仍在演绎，股商风险偏好继续上台阶，国债利率大幅上行。短期需 关注风险资产情绪回落、政治局会议利好兑现及中美新一轮关税谈判，债市性价比仍待时机。 贵金属：美欧贸易谈判停滞，金银维持强势 周二国际贵金属价格继续上涨，国际金价格上涨至近五周高位，再度站上 3400 美元/盎 司上方，国际银价也临近 40 美元的整数关口，主要受到全球贸易局势的不确定性和美国债 券收益率走低的双重影响。美国总统特朗普设定的 8 月 1 日关税大限临近，市场担忧美欧之 间的贸易谈判可能破裂。据欧盟外交官透露，因缺乏突破性进展，欧盟正考虑对美国采取更 广 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, with the approaching August 1st tariff deadline, there is intense tariff - related game - playing among countries. The US - EU trade negotiation is bleak, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has increased market uncertainty. In the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold, copper, etc. [2] - Domestically, the expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. [2] - For different commodities, most are expected to show a certain degree of strength in the short - term, but are also affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. [3][6][7][8][10][11][13][15][17][19][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The August 1st tariff deadline is approaching. The US emphasizes "quality first", and many countries are in intense tariff - related games. The US - EU trade negotiation is on the verge of collapse, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has not subsided, increasing political pressure on the Fed. During the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold and copper. [2] - Domestic: The expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. The risk preference of the stock and commodity markets continues to increase, and the Treasury bond yield rises. [2] 3.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.55% to $3410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce. The uncertainty of the US reaching a trade agreement before August 1st, the weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and the brewing of EU counter - measures against US tariffs have all boosted precious metal prices. The market's speculation about the possible replacement of Fed Chairman Powell and the reshaping of the Fed has also increased market tension. It is expected that precious metal prices will fluctuate strongly in the near future. [3][4] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rebound, and LME copper rose strongly above $9800. The spot market of electrolytic copper had good transactions, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Domestically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce an action plan to support key industrial sectors, which will significantly boost metal demand. Abroad, SolGold is accelerating the development of its copper - gold project in Ecuador. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short - term, affected by factors such as global trade situations and supply - demand relationships. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose. The overseas market is cautious before the US tariff negotiation deadline, and the domestic market interprets the news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as a new round of supply - side reform, which has led to a significant increase in Shanghai aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has slightly increased, and the spot transaction maintains a high premium. It is expected that aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's requirements for structural adjustment and elimination of backward production capacity in ten major industries have increased the market's expectation of supply - side interference, driving up the alumina futures price. It is expected that alumina will continue to run strongly in the short - term. [11] 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth is expected to ferment, and the LME still has a risk of short - squeezing. The domestic consumption off - season has certain resilience, and the pattern of weak supply and demand has not been effectively reflected in inventory. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [12][13] 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. After the current - month delivery, the inventory continued to increase, and the downstream battery consumption has not improved significantly, which has dragged down the lead price. However, the cost - side support is effective, and the policy of stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metal industry has a positive impact on the lead price. In the short - term, the lead price will stabilize and fluctuate. [14][15] 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly. The positive market atmosphere boosts the tin price. Fundamentally, the resumption of work in some smelters has slightly increased the operating rate of refined tin, but overall it remains at a low level. The downstream is in the consumption off - season, and the inventory has slightly increased. Although the tin price runs strongly following the non - ferrous metal sector in the short - term, the expected improvement in the raw material end may limit its upward space. [16][17] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The supply - side has shrunk significantly, and the new policy has boosted the spot market. The Xinjiang region's operating rate has dropped below 50%, and the operating rate in the Sichuan - Yunnan region has limited recovery during the wet season. The demand side is affected by factors such as cost and market acceptance. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [18][19] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated, and the spot price rose slightly. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to promote the stable growth of ten major industries has boosted the lithium price. Although the fundamental situation of weak supply and demand has not been alleviated, the lithium price is currently dominated by policies. However, the special cost - ladder structure of lithium carbonate may limit the intensity of policy support, and the increase in lithium price may be less than that of other related varieties. [20] 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated strongly. The domestic policy of promoting the stable growth of the non - ferrous metal industry has boosted the nickel price. Although the nickel - iron spot market is still cold, the price of pure nickel has risen under policy drive, and the market for nickel sulfate has recovered. It is expected that the nickel price will strengthen under policy drive in the short - term. [22][23] 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated strongly. Geopolitical factors, such as the possible instability of the Iran - Israel cease - fire agreement, may have an impact on oil prices. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force in the oil market. Potential geopolitical risks may support oil prices, but the upward space is limited, and the oil market will fluctuate. [24][25] 3.13 Steel Products (Screw - Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. At the steel enterprise forum, steel enterprises reached a consensus on strengthening self - discipline and controlling production. The spot market has an increase in both volume and price, and the trade sentiment is good. The macro - level large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The supply - side contraction offsets the unfavorable situation of off - season demand. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation. [26] 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures showed a strong trend. The arrival of iron ore at ports has decreased, and the shipment has remained stable. The macro - level anti - involution policy improves the fundamental expectation, and the large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The profitability of steel mills has recovered, and the demand for iron ore has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [27] 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The US soybean good - rate has decreased, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is changeable. The domestic bean meal inventory continues to increase. The progress of US trade negotiations is slow, and the external market fluctuates and closes down. It is expected that the domestic bean meal will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. [28][29] 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil futures price fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first and middle of July, but the export demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic palm oil inventory continued to increase. The increase in profit - taking behavior of long - position funds has led to a decline in the domestic market after a rise. In the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly. [30][31]

Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 141 to close at 4,316 ringgit/ton, a 3.38% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 282 to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 174 to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, a 2.18% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 147 to close at 9,586 yuan/ton, a 1.56% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 2.01 to close at 55.58 cents/pound, a 3.75% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 15.9 to close at 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.33% increase [3]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. In the biodiesel sector, Indonesia's B40 policy is being gradually implemented, and its domestic B50 plan is in the testing and research phase, expected to be fully implemented in January 2026, leading to high bullish sentiment among funds and a significant increase in palm oil prices. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy will exacerbate the tight supply expectation of US soybean oil, resulting in a relatively obvious increase, and the domestic market is driven by this, with soybean oil performing stronger than rapeseed oil [3][6]. - Macroscopically, the US retail and employment data are strong, the inflation data are generally moderate, the impact of tariffs has not been fully reflected, the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has cooled, and the US dollar closed higher at a weekly low. In China, the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the bullish atmosphere, and commodity prices have generally increased. Fundamentally, it is currently the production - increasing season, with both supply and demand increasing. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, increasing the demand for biodiesel, and the upcoming B50 policy will exacerbate the tight supply - demand pattern. The US's unexpected biodiesel target will also exacerbate the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the price data of various oil and fat contracts on July 18 and July 11, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, etc., as well as their price changes and percentage changes [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose last week, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policies (B40 and the upcoming B50) and the US biodiesel policy are the main factors driving the price increases [6]. - From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.06%, but its export volume decreased according to different survey agencies. The export tax of Malaysian palm oil in August will increase from 8.5% in July to 9% [7][8]. - As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters. India's palm oil import volume in June increased by 60% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% [8]. Industry News - Indonesia expects its palm oil tax revenue this year to reach 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $1.84 billion), and plans to replant 50,000 hectares of palm plantations this year, lower than the target of 180,000 hectares [11]. - According to a report, global palm oil prices are expected to rise by 33% by the end of 2025, reaching $1,200/ton, due to supply tightening in Indonesia and Malaysia and increased global demand driven by biodiesel policies [11]. - AI is being used in the Malaysian palm oil industry, improving the oil extraction rate by 0.1%, increasing the normal operation time of the factory by 5 - 10%, and reducing the dependence on manual labor by 45% [12]. - India aims to increase its domestic crude palm oil production from 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029 and expand the planting area from 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares next year [12]. - UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that Malaysia's palm oil exports may increase in July, production is expected to increase, and inventory may remain stable [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][39][42]