铜周报 降息条件充分，铜价震荡上行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价震荡上行，主因美国8月CPI总体温和可控，环比 增幅有限，而就业市场表现持续低迷，市场积极押注年内 2-3次的降息空间；特朗普过分已经安排其白宫经济顾问 担任理事或进一步干预美联储政策独立性，美元指数再度 转弱提振铜价。基本面来看，主要矿山维持供应中断，国 内精铜有减产预期，新兴产业保持较快消费增长，社会库 存有进一步下探的风险，近月盘面B结构小幅收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021 ...

锌周报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 降息预期提振 锌价向上修复 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价重心上抬。宏观面看，美国 8 月通胀温 和上涨，符合市场预期，但更多就业数据疲软，显示就业 形势严峻，市场加强美联储降息的押注，基本确定 9 月降 息，且预计年内降息三次，美元延续弱势，利好金属价格。 国内 8 月出口数据有所走弱，出口前置影响消退，新增信 贷规模低于预期，新增社融规模符合预期，居民部门短贷、 中长贷均连续两个月少增，内生经济仍弱，市场对托底政 策抱有期待。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn ...

镍价或震荡上行 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 9 月 15 日 宏观预期偏暖 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，美国非农就业数据大幅下修，劳动力市场走弱迹象 明显。但通胀压力放缓，CPI与PPI数据均表现温和。市场对 美联储9月降息预期近乎打满，且对后续降息路径预期更偏 乐观。欧洲央行连续两期利率决议持平，拉加德释放鹰派发 言，表示欧洲抗通胀或暂告结束，后续警惕贸易摩擦风险。 ⚫ ...

2025 年 9 月 15 日 宏观基本面共振 铝价偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 ⚫ 上周美国公布非农基数截止今年3月被下修91.1万 人，创2000以来最大下修幅度，再度佐证美国就业疲 弱，同时美国8月PPI低于预期CPI符合预期，美联储 9月降息预期高涨。国内经济数据好坏参半，8月出口 增速回落，核心CPI稳中有升，新增社融规模超预期。 基本面，电解铝供应端开工产能基 ...

工业硅周报 多晶硅限产预期强化，工业硅低位反 弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅低位反弹，主因近期美联储降息预期高涨，国 内光伏行业反内卷情绪延续，市场传言多晶硅四季度将严 格实现产量配额制。供应来看，新疆地区开工率升至66%， 川滇地区丰水期开工率偏低，供应端维持小幅收缩态势； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅企业实际减产力度不及预期甚至出 现部分提产；硅片市场排产有所上调与电池市场共同形成 紧平衡预期；光伏电池备货需求持续释放，电池片短期价 格涨幅较为明显；组件端主流成交维持0.7元/瓦，下游采 买意愿偏弱，终端集中式和分布式电站项目开工稀少，下 游光伏玻璃新单价格落地成品库存有所上升，下游对整体 中游价格上行程度仍需要时间消化，工业硅社会库存回升 至53.9万吨，工业硅现货市场因盘面宽幅震荡总体运行平 稳。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US within the year is further strengthened, with the A - share market rising on heavy volume, and the bond market showing fluctuations. The prices of various commodities are influenced by macro - economic data, industry fundamentals, and geopolitical risks, showing different trends such as high - level oscillations, upward or downward trends [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The non - over - expected CPI and cold initial jobless claims in the US in August strengthened the interest rate cut trading. The US 8 - month CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, core CPI was 3.1%, both in line with expectations and flat compared to July. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, hitting a more than two - year high. The market pricing of three interest rate cuts within the year was strengthened, the US dollar index fell to 97.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to the 4.0% mark, and US stocks reached new highs. The eurozone central bank maintained interest rates unchanged in September and raised growth and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rose on heavy volume, with over 4000 stocks rising and the trading volume reaching 2.4 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the gains. The bond market fluctuated sharply, with the unilateral rise of A - shares suppressing the bond market, but the marginal loosening of the capital side and the discussion of the central bank's restart of bond - buying drove the bond market to stop falling and rebound [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices closed mixed on Thursday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was strengthened, but the international gold price slightly declined due to long - position closing. It is expected that gold and silver prices will maintain a high - level oscillation before the Fed's interest rate cut on the 18th [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upwards, and London copper approached the previous high of the year. The consumption in the domestic peak season is expected to return, and the market continues to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an oscillating upward trend in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,915 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The LME closed at $2622/ton, up 0.21%. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are both in the process of destocking, indicating that the peak - season consumption is gradually being realized. The short - term macro - environment and fundamentals are both positive, and aluminum prices will continue to show a strong performance [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The supply - side pressure of alumina still exists, and the market is dominated by a bearish atmosphere. It continues to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the cost support [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and shifted slightly upward at night. The social inventory in China continues to increase, which exerts pressure on zinc prices, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. With the gradual recovery of consumption, destocking is still expected. Zinc prices will operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and opened lower and moved higher at night. The high inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a weak oscillation before consumption improves [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and showed a strong oscillation at night. The low - level LME inventory still supports tin prices. It is expected that tin prices will follow the non - ferrous metal sector to repair with a strong oscillation in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply side shows a passive contraction trend, and the demand side has different performances in each link. The industrial silicon social inventory continues to decline, and the spot market stabilizes. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillation in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the spot price weakened. The short - term market still focuses on the resource game around the lithium mine event. Although the spot inventory is being destocked, more resources are flowing to the exchange. The lithium price may oscillate around the resource game [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price oscillated strongly. The US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the inflation pressure slows down. The market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut path is more dovish. The nickel price may oscillate strongly driven by the macro - environment [18][19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Thursday, the oil price oscillated. The views of OPEC and IEA are divergent. The market may be more inclined to the IEA's view, and the expectation of supply surplus may put pressure on oil prices in the medium and long term. However, short - term geopolitical risks are rising, and it is expected that the oil price will oscillate [20][21]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The steel production decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand relationship was not good. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [22][23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and declined. The iron ore price is affected by poor terminal demand and weak steel prices. The supply side is shrinking, and there is still a replenishment expectation in mid - to - late September. It is expected that iron ore will oscillate [24]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 0.78%, and the 01 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.98%. The market expects the NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August to reach a record high for the same period. The net sales of US soybeans for export are slow. It is expected that the domestic continuous meal will oscillate in the short term [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil fell 0.11%. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in early September decreased month - on - month, providing support for prices. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust in the short term [27][28]. 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and positions of various metal futures contracts on September 11, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [29] 3.18 Industrial Data - The report presents detailed industrial data for various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including price changes, inventory changes, and basis changes from September 10 to 11 [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - globally, tariff policies have a relatively mild impact on economic growth expectations. In the US, the weak employment market has led to a rapid increase in expectations of preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed, and Trump's interference in Fed policies has shaken market confidence in the US dollar. In China, the central bank will implement moderately loose policies, the fiscal side will support traditional and emerging industries, and consumption subsidy policies will boost domestic demand [3][77]. - Fundamentals - globally, frequent mine interruptions have tightened the ore supply and affected the smelting end, raising the cost and thus the copper price. In the consumption end, traditional industries are entering the peak season, and the copper demand of emerging industries (except photovoltaics) remains rigid. Domestic inventory is at a low level, and the global inventory rebound is limited [3][77]. - Overall - the weak US employment market and non - significant inflation, along with the Fed's dovish stance, open the door for a September interest rate cut. Trump's interference challenges the Fed's independence, and the weak US dollar supports the copper price. The tightening of the ore end is intensifying and spreading to the smelting end. The domestic copper supply - demand will return to a tight balance, and social inventory may decline further. It is expected that the copper price will enter an upward - trending oscillation in September and may approach the first - half high if the interest rate cut is realized [3][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 August Copper Market Review - Copper prices showed an upward - trending oscillation in August. LME copper rose from around $9,550 to over $9,900, and SHFE copper rose from around 78,000 yuan to around 80,000 yuan. The upward trend was driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns about the Fed's independence, and global mine supply shortages. As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,906/ton with a monthly decline of 3.1%, and SHFE copper closed at 79,410 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 1.75%. The market was characterized by a stronger overseas and weaker domestic performance [8]. - In terms of consumption, the terminal consumption of refined copper in China maintained off - season characteristics in August. The construction of power grid investment projects did not increase significantly, and orders in the real estate, engineering, and rail transit sectors slowed down. The air - conditioning production entered the off - season, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic and communication fields was weak. However, the demand for copper connectors in the new - energy vehicle industry was good. The social inventory remained at a low level of 12 - 150,000 tons, and the spot premium increased after the contract change. The processing fee of copper rods was stable. It is expected that the consumption of traditional industries will recover in September, and the premium of domestic copper will rise [11][12]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Employment Market Shows Weakness, and Expectations of Preventive Interest Rate Cuts within the Year Rise - In August, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of full - time jobs decreased by 357,000, and the ADP employment increased by only 54,000. The recruitment growth in the goods production and service sectors slowed down, and the salary increase of private - sector employees reached a four - year low. The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that consumer spending was flat or decreased, and corporate investment willingness declined. The weak employment market has increased the expectations of preventive interest rate cuts, with some in the market expecting a 50 - BP cut in September. However, some hawkish officials oppose the cut, arguing that inflation is still above the 2% target [14][15]. 3.2.2 US Manufacturing Contracts, while Eurozone Manufacturing Recovers Significantly - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August dropped to 48.7, remaining in the contraction range for six consecutive months. Although the new orders index expanded for the first time this year, the employment index decreased, and the price - paid index declined, indicating a potential slowdown in inflation. The overall situation shows that US manufacturing enterprises face many challenges and are reluctant to expand investment [17]. - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.5, ending a three - year contraction. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose significantly, and France's also showed a recovery trend. The strong PMI data and controlled inflation provide a basis for the ECB's policy - making. The ECB may pause interest rate cuts in the short term, but there is a possibility of resuming cuts by the end of the year if service - sector inflation further declines and the impact of tariff policies on the economy intensifies [18]. 3.2.3 The Central Bank Implements Moderately Loose Policies, and the Decline in Industrial Enterprise Profits Narrowed in August - The central bank proposed to implement moderately loose monetary policies in the second - quarter monetary policy report. It aims to maintain liquidity, match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price targets, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. It will also improve the interest - rate regulation framework, lower the cost of bank liabilities, and support key areas such as innovation, consumption, and small enterprises [19]. - In July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of Chinese industrial enterprises above a designated size narrowed. The profits of high - tech manufacturing increased rapidly, driving the overall industrial profit growth. The fourth - quarter policy of "anti - involution + stable growth" is expected to boost the demand for industrial products and non - ferrous metals, providing upward momentum for the copper price [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Global Ore Supply is Continuously Disrupted, and the Panama Copper Mine Enters the Environmental Assessment Audit Stage - As of the end of August, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained at an extremely low level of around - $41/ton. The global supply interference rate of copper concentrate is increasing, and the supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop to 1.1% - 1.4%. Many major mines have experienced interruptions and suspensions, such as the Panama copper mine's environmental audit, the suspension of Teck Resources' expansion project in Peru, and the temporary shutdown of several mines in Chile and Indonesia. The output loss of Kamoa this year is expected to exceed 100,000 tons. The overall situation shows that the tight supply of copper concentrate continues [24][25]. 3.3.2 Domestic Output May Decline from the High Level, and the Release of Overseas Refined Copper Capacity is Restricted - In August, China's electrolytic copper output was 1.172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. However, due to the "770 Document" that restricts the production of scrap - copper enterprises, domestic refined copper output in September is expected to decline by 4% - 5% month - on - month, a reduction of about 50,000 - 80,000 tons. - Overseas, Glencore's two smelters in the Philippines and Chile have been shut down, resulting in an expected output loss of 300,000 tons this year. The new overseas refined copper production capacity in 2025 is expected to be 620,000 tons, but the actual increase is estimated to be only about 150,000 tons [31][32]. 3.3.3 Refined Copper Imports Gradually Recover, and the Yangshan Copper Premium in US Dollars Declines - From January to July, China's cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while the imports of copper ore and concentrate increased by 8.1%. The decline in refined copper imports narrowed to 6.4%, and the import volume in July increased by 8.2% year - on - year. In August, the export window gradually closed, and some overseas goods flowed back to the LME Asian warehouse. The Yangshan copper premium dropped significantly, and the US copper premium almost disappeared. The inflow of US scrap copper into China has decreased significantly [54][55]. 3.3.4 Overseas Inventory Flows to North America, and Domestic Inventory Enters a Low - Level Range - Since August, domestic inventory has remained in a low - level range of 120,000 - 150,000 tons. By August 29, the global visible inventory (including Shanghai bonded area) rebounded to 599,000 tons. The total inventory of the three major exchanges (LME, COMEX, and SHFE) increased by 70,000 tons to 516,000 tons. The COMEX inventory stopped increasing, and the LME inventory gradually recovered. The domestic copper visible inventory increased to 162,000 tons. It is expected that the global visible inventory will increase slightly in September, and domestic inventory may decline further due to the peak - season demand [58][60]. 3.3.5 Traditional Industries Enter the Peak Season, and the Growth of Emerging Industries (Except Photovoltaics) Remains Stable - Power grid investment - the total investment in the power grid by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid in 2025 is expected to reach 80 billion yuan, an increase of 22 billion yuan compared to 2024. The construction of "5 direct - current and 2 alternating - current" UHV lines will start this year. The copper demand for power grid investment is expected to grow at a rate of 3% [65]. - Photovoltaic and wind power - from January to July, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 80.7% year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down significantly in July and August. The government is taking measures to regulate the photovoltaic industry, and the second - half installed capacity may decline sharply. The wind - power installed capacity increased by 79.4% from January to July, but the full - year forecast has been lowered. The copper demand for the wind - and - solar industries is expected to decline by 7% - 8% [66][69]. - Real estate - from January to July, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year. The decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities narrowed. Policy support is expected to stabilize the real estate market, but the copper demand for real estate is expected to decline slightly by 2% - 3% [70][71]. - Air - conditioning - from January to July, China's air - conditioning production increased by 1.5% year - on - year. In September, the domestic and export production schedules of air - conditioners decreased compared to last year. The air - conditioning market faces challenges of weakening domestic and external demand [72][73]. - New - energy vehicles - from January to July, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 39.2% and 38.5% respectively. The export increased by 75.2%. With policy support, the copper demand for new - energy vehicles is expected to grow by more than 25% [74]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macro - factors and fundamentals are expected to drive the copper price upward. The weak US dollar and tight supply - demand fundamentals will support the copper price. In September, the copper price is expected to oscillate upwards and may approach the first - half high if the interest rate cut is realized [77].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 202509011 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 8 月 PPI 显著降温，国内债市持续偏弱 海外方面，美国 8 月 PPI 大幅低于预期，环比录得-0.1%创四个月来首次转负，同比 2.6% 低于前值 3.1%和预期 3.3%，服务成本回落抵消商品涨价，中间需求上升暗示后续压力。市 场继续交易降息，美债利率下行，美元指数收于 97.8，科技公司推动纳指、标普再创新高， 伦铜站上 10000 美元关口，地缘风险及美推动对俄油买家制裁促进油价上涨，金价窄幅震 荡。美联储理事提名人米兰获参院委员会通过，或于下周 FOMC 前确认就任；法官叫停罢 免库克，特朗普政府紧急上诉。墨西哥拟将自中国等亚洲汽车关税升至 50%以安抚美国；波 兰击落无人机，俄乌冲突首次引发北约成员国开火。今日关注美国 8 月 CPI。 国内方面，8 月 CPI 同比受食品拖累降至-0.4%，核心 CPI 升至 0.9%创年内新高；PPI 同比-2.9%符合预期，较前值 ...

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