氧化铝周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 供应端复产继续 氧化铝承压震荡 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 上周矿端基本稳定，继续关注几内亚政局及雨季 因素对进口矿影响。供应端部分氧化铝企业推进 复产工作，氧化铝开工产能有增量出现，不过此前 经历了较长时间的较低产能运行，部分地区的现 货供应略显紧张，整体供应压力尚未明确显现，市 场现货价格仍相对较挺。消费端电解铝产能稳中 小增，但 ...

工业硅周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 终端消费回落，工业硅反弹乏力 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 二、市场分析及展望 上周工业硅反弹乏力，主因全球关税疑云未散，国内宏观政策进入真空期，光伏供给侧 改革进入实质性阶段对原料需求打击较大。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复至 65%,川滇地 区开炉数小幅回升，内蒙产量平稳，但供应端总体增长有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅产量供 应不确定性较大，拉晶 ...

锌周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 上周沪锌主力期价先抑后扬。宏观面看，中美伦敦谈判， 未有明显变化。美国 5 月通胀数据低于预期，强化了美联 储 9 月降息。国内通胀数据依旧疲软，5 月信贷社融数据 有喜有忧，居民中长期贷款由负转正，新增社融高于预期。 周五以伊冲突升级，市场风险偏好回落。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 避险情绪升温 锌价承压下行 核心观点及策略 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 上周沪锌主力 ZN2507 合约期价 ...

关税疑云未散，铜价小幅调整 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价高位回落，主因全球关税疑云未散，美国政府虽 然愿意延长7月8日的最后期限，但将对伙伴国发出信函说 明具体的贸易协议条款，恐遭伙伴国反制，贸易局势不确 定性仍然较大；此外，中美二轮经贸谈判达成战略性框架 协议的乐观预期也在逐步消化，鲍威尔及美联储官员均表 示当前的货币政策是经济不确定性背景下的最优方案，而 就业市场近期的疲态也体现了美国经济的滞涨风险，海外 宏观对铜价有承压作用。基本面来看，卡莫阿重启但下调 产量预期近3成，全球显性库存持续下降，洋山铜仓单溢 价高企，国内库存低位震荡，盘面近月B结构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 铜周报 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号： ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250613 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国高频就业数据走弱，以色列正式空袭伊朗 海外方面，美国 5 月核心 PPI 月率录得 0.1%，低于预期的 0.30%，但最新初请与续请 失业金人数双双超出预期，创下 2024 年 10 月来新高，市场年内降息预期有所提高。关税方 面，① 特朗普拟数日内签署美英贸易协议核心条款；② 加美谈判取得进展；③ 特朗普称 或将上调汽车关税；④ 美商务自 23 日起对洗衣机、冰箱等钢制家电加征关税。中东地缘局 势仍在恶化，13 日上午以色列空袭伊朗，带动金价站上 3400 美元、油价涨幅超 5%，短期 将加剧市场避险情绪。 国内方面，A 股横盘震荡，两市成交额稳定在 1.3 万亿关口，风格上微盘、科创表现占 优，行业上贵金属、生物科技领涨，波动率仍处于阶段性低位，关注市场对数据、事件的敏 感度抬升，若成交不放量，警惕短期回调风险；资金偏紧带动债市调整，长端国债表现较好。 近期将公布 5 月金融数据、经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that overseas, the first round of China - US economic and trade consultations was held in London, and the inflation expectation in the US decreased for the first time this year. In China, the CPI was negative for four consecutive months, the PPI decline widened, the export and import situation was not optimistic, and the economy was stable in the first half of the year but needed to pay attention to policy and negotiation progress [2][3]. - In the precious metals market, silver started a catch - up rally, with gold prices remaining high and volatile, and silver prices showing strong performance due to factors such as capital preference and relatively low prices [4][5]. - For copper, the start of China - US economic and trade consultations led to a relatively strong copper price, but the spot market trading was cold [6][7]. - Aluminum prices were supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index and the reduction of ingot production, but were also restricted by consumption off - season concerns and macro risks, and were expected to fluctuate within a range [8][9]. - Alumina was under pressure due to the expected increase in supply from production resumption, but the cost support limited the downward space [10][11]. - Zinc prices were expected to be weak due to factors such as refinery resumption, weakening demand, and increasing inventory [12]. - Lead prices were expected to fluctuate due to factors such as production reduction, inventory decline, and weak demand [13]. - Tin prices were expected to fluctuate after a rebound due to factors such as the suspension of tin ore transportation from Myanmar, reduced production, and weakening downstream purchasing [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level due to poor demand growth and inventory accumulation [16]. - Nickel prices had limited downward space due to upstream supply contraction, but were affected by macro - level disturbances [17]. - Crude oil prices were expected to have a long - term downward trend, and short - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities due to supply pressure and geopolitical factors [18]. - Steel prices were expected to be under pressure due to weak supply and demand, and the entry of demand into the off - season [19]. - Iron ore prices were expected to be weak due to increased supply and weakening demand [20][21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were expected to fluctuate strongly due to factors such as the US soybean's good growth rate, positive signals from China - US negotiations, and cost support [22][23]. - Palm oil prices were expected to fluctuate, waiting for the release of the MPOB report [24][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The trading data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. were presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [27]. 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - The data of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. on June 9th and June 6th were compared, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory, and other indicators [27][30][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market's bullish sentiment was boosted, and bullish funds actively entered the market, causing the Dalian soybean meal futures to rise significantly. However, as China has not yet purchased new - season US soybeans, the changes in subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations need to be monitored. The US soybean sowing season has been relatively smooth, with a good initial report on crop quality, and overall normal weather in the production areas, but the precipitation forecast in the Midwest is slightly dry, which may bring phased growth pressure. Attention should be paid to the area survey report and the change in crop quality at the end of June. Brazil's soybean export peak has passed, and the soybean premium has rebounded. Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is established. - Domestically, oil mills have sufficient purchases of Brazilian soybeans for the June - August shipping schedule. Attention should be paid to the soybean purchase dynamics for the fourth quarter. The arrival of soybeans in China is still ongoing, with an estimated arrival of over 10 million tons in June - July and 8 - 10 million tons in August - September, resulting in a generally loose short - term supply. The operating rate of oil mills remains high, and domestic soybean and soybean meal are still in the process of inventory accumulation, with spot prices gradually declining and basis continuing to weaken. The提货 volume of soybean meal from oil mills has increased significantly, providing short - term support for market demand. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has continued to rise but is at a low level compared to the same period, and there is still a need for restocking in the future. - As new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter have not been purchased, the call between Chinese and US leaders may provide an expectation of improvement for subsequent trade negotiations, boosting the domestic futures market. Attention should be paid to subsequent trade negotiations, the weather in the US soybean production areas, the release of USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Domestically, supply has increased, putting pressure on spot prices, while feed enterprises'提货 and restocking have increased, and inventory has gradually recovered. Technically, the futures market has formed a bottom structure, and long - term there are opportunities to go long on dips. Overall, in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [3][74][75] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since May, soybean meal has shown a weak oscillation followed by a small - scale rebound. At the end of May, the 09 - contract of soybean meal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 2968 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.64%. In the first half of May, the market was mainly influenced by the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in the operating rate of oil mills, leading to an increase in soybean meal supply and a decline in spot prices. The futures market was weakly oscillating due to uncertainties in Sino - US relations. In the second half of May, the market was affected by the potential soybean production reduction in Argentina due to heavy rain and the impact of short - term heavy precipitation on the sowing progress in the US soybean production areas. Bullish funds pushed up the futures market, and the weather model predicted a dry and less - rainy growing season for US soybeans, injecting a certain weather premium into the market. However, due to the sufficient supply of soybeans in the past two months, the upward space was limited in the short term [9] 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the new - season soybean balance sheet released by the US Department of Agriculture in May, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.817 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.41%, showing a slowdown. Global export demand is 188.432 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. The crushing demand is 366.462 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.48%. The ending inventory is 124.33 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 29.32%, indicating a slight tightening of the global supply - demand situation [12] 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, leading to a decline in ending inventory to 350 million bushels and a stock - to - consumption ratio of 7.98%. In the 2025/2026 season, the sown area is 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, and the production is 4.34 billion bushels. The US crushing capacity continues to expand, with an annual increase of 70 million bushels to 2.49 billion bushels, and the export demand is slightly reduced to 1.815 billion bushels. The ending inventory of new - season soybeans has dropped to 295 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.68%, indicating a tightening supply situation [16] 2.3 Weather in US Soybean Production Areas - As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the sowing progress of US soybeans was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of the week ending May 27, about 17% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 80 - 90 mm, which is beneficial for the initial growth of soybeans, and the sowing season is expected to end smoothly [18] 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In April 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 1.540098 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [22] 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending May 22, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 146,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48.46 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 22.48 million tons [23] 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2024/2025 season, Brazil's soybean production remained at 169 million tons, export demand was reduced by 1 million tons to 104.5 million tons, and ending inventory increased to 33.31 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, and ending inventory is 34.16 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.6%. In April 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 15.27 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to April was 37.45 million tons [32][38][39] 2.7 Brazilian Soybean Harvest - As of the week ending May 24, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 99.5%, and the harvest work was basically completed [41] 2.8 Argentine Soybean Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, Argentina's soybean production remained at 49 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, production was slightly reduced to 48.5 million tons, crushing demand was raised to 43 million tons, ending inventory was 25.45 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 46.27% [44] 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - In April 2025, China's soybean import volume was 6.08 million tons, lower than the market expectation, mainly due to tightened customs clearance policies. From October 2024 to April 2025, China's cumulative soybean import volume was 46.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.68 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in May was over 12 million tons, and in June - July it was over 10 million tons. In April 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 489,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.388 million tons. The rapeseed meal import volume in April was 289,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.086 million tons [49] 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.8288 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 298,000 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 3.6929 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons. The daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 82,580 tons, and the daily average提货 volume was 186,080 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2682 million tons, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 5.99 days [52] 3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 42.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.1% [61] 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - Internationally, after the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market sentiment was boosted, but attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean sowing season was smooth, but the Midwest may face growth pressure. Brazil's export peak has passed, and Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is loose in the short term, and oil mills and feed enterprises are in the process of inventory adjustment. In the future, attention should be paid to trade negotiations, weather conditions, USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Technically, there are long - term opportunities to go long on dips, and in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of primary lead and recycled lead varies, with marginal increase in supply pressure. The off - season of lead - acid battery consumption continues, and the terminal sectors are slightly differentiated. Enterprises mainly accept long - term orders. With supply increasing and demand weak, there is insufficient upward drive for lead prices. However, due to the continuous existence of structural contradictions in raw material supply and demand, cost factors support lead prices. As the fundamental contradictions are not significantly intensified, it is expected that lead prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][80]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In May 2025, Shanghai lead first increased and then decreased. In the first half of the month, with a series of domestic financial policies, the easing of Sino - US tariffs, and the strengthening of the interest - rate cut expectation due to the cooling of US inflation, the market risk appetite improved, and lead prices oscillated strongly. But it was difficult to break through the resistance at 17,000 yuan, and the price slightly回调. In the second half of the month, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and concerns about the US debt problem led to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the arrival of crude lead eased the raw material pressure, the price of waste batteries decreased slightly, the cost loosened, and the off - season of consumption remained unchanged, with increasing inventory pressure. Lead prices gave back the gains from the first half of the month. By May 30, the futures price closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.31%. - LME lead first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated sideways. At the beginning of the month, tariff concerns gradually cooled, and LME inventory slightly declined from a high level, so LME lead stabilized and rebounded. Subsequently, market sentiment fluctuated around economic pressure, inflation, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the second half of the month, LME inventory increased significantly, strengthening the expectation of overseas surplus, and the lead price was under pressure. The resistance at $2,000/ton was obvious, and the futures price slightly declined and oscillated. Finally, it closed at $1,963.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.98% [8]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: In March 2025, global lead concentrate production was 367,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative production from January to March was 1.028 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5%. ILZSG predicts that the global lead mine production in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons. Overseas lead mines are producing steadily, and domestic lead concentrate production is also increasing. It is estimated that the global lead concentrate increment in 2025 is 160,000 tons, with 90,000 tons overseas and 70,000 tons in China. The contradiction of supply - demand mismatch in lead concentrate is expected to persist in the medium term [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees decline month - on - month, and lead concentrate imports decrease month - on - month**: In June 2025, the average monthly processing fees for domestic and overseas lead concentrates were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/metal ton and - 10 dollars/dry ton respectively. In April 2025, lead concentrate imports were 111,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.13%. The cumulative imports from January to April were 448,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41%. The import of silver concentrate also decreased in April. The supply - demand gap of lead concentrate exists in the long - term, and there is still a slight downward pressure on processing fees [19]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is gentle**: In March 2025, global refined lead production was 1.1316 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.72%. The cumulative production from January to March was 3.2584 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.7%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Overseas, there are no large - scale new refineries in recent years, mainly relying on the resumption and ramping - up of previous shut - down refineries. In China, new recycled lead refineries are the main focus, but projects are often postponed due to raw material constraints [25]. - **Electrolytic lead production in April was lower than expected, and supply mainly recovered in May**: In May 2025, electrolytic lead production was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The cumulative production from January to May was 1.562 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In June, due to more refinery overhauls and tightened lead concentrate supply, it is expected that electrolytic lead production will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. For the whole year of 2025, electrolytic lead supply is expected to increase steadily [31]. - **The price of waste batteries moves up, and recycled lead refineries gradually resume production**: In May 2025, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In June, the price of waste batteries is expected to move up slightly. In May, recycled refined lead production was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In June, production is expected to rebound to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9%, but the raw material supply problem still needs attention [36][37]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: In March 2025, global refined lead consumption was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The cumulative consumption from January to March was 3.242 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons. In 2025, global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on the lead - battery demand in the automotive industry [46][47]. - **Lead - battery consumption is in the off - season, and sectors are differentiated**: In May, lead - battery enterprises maintained the characteristics of the seasonal off - season, with the five - province battery enterprise operating rate at 70.45% at the end of May. The production of electric - bicycle and automotive lead - battery markets changed little, while the operating rate of energy - storage battery enterprises was relatively good. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating rate may rebound slightly but will remain in the range of 70 - 73% [54]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports**: In April 2025, the refined lead export volume was 3,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54%. The refined lead import volume in April was 4,734 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3496.9% and a month - on - month increase of 65.1%. The lead - battery export volume in April was 2.0463 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to battery exports [55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead - battery consumption prospect marginally**: In the terminal demand of lead - batteries, automotive and electric - bicycle batteries account for a large proportion. In the automotive sector, the lead - battery demand is strong, with both replacement and new - car supporting demands increasing. In the electric - bicycle sector, policies such as trade - in and the new national standard are beneficial to lead - battery consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the market scale is growing, and lead - battery demand also has growth potential [69][70][71]. 2.4 Overseas Inventory First Decreases and Then Increases, and There is Pressure on Domestic Inventory Accumulation - In May, LME inventory first decreased and then increased. By May 30, the inventory was 284,200 tons, a monthly increase of 20,000 tons. The domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. By May 29, the inventory was 49,400 tons, a monthly increase of 4,600 tons. In June, inventory is expected to rise again, but the accumulation volume is limited [76][78]. 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrate remains unchanged. In June, the domestic and overseas processing fees decreased slightly. The electrolytic lead production in May increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than expected, and it decreased in June. The recycled lead production decreased significantly in May and increased in June, but the resumption rhythm is restricted by raw material supply and profitability. The demand for electric - bicycle and automotive lead - batteries remains in the off - season, while the energy - storage battery demand is supported. The Shanghai - London ratio has limited boost to lead ingot exports. In the long - term, policy supports consumption, but the demand growth rate is stable but not strong. Overall, the supply pressure increases marginally, and lead prices are expected to oscillate widely [80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows signs of weakness, but inflation continues to decline and employment remains resilient. The Fed's policy stance remains cautious. The intensifying game between the US administration and the judiciary has increased the uncertainty of the global trade pattern. In China, the lack of endogenous economic momentum and the long - term impact of the China - US trade game pose great pressure on the export outlook, leading to rising expectations for increased fiscal policies [4][82]. - The supply of zinc concentrates has shifted from tight to loose globally. Overseas new mine capacity has been released smoothly, and domestic raw material inflows have increased. The overall supply remains loose, with both domestic and foreign processing fees rising month - on - month. In June, the supply of refined zinc recovered significantly and is expected to remain high in July [4][82]. - On the demand side, the local debt resolution process restricts the efficiency of infrastructure funds, and infrastructure performance is "stable but not strong". The demand in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors has weakened marginally. Thanks to the tariff suspension and policy support, the automotive and home appliance industries maintain their prosperity, and the export of galvanized sheets remains resilient [4][82]. - Overall, the drag effect of anti - globalization tariff measures on the global economy is emerging, and its uncertainty exacerbates market sentiment fluctuations. The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The market is shifting from "strong reality" to "weak expectation", and an inventory inflection point is looming. Zinc prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [4][83]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Zinc Market Review - In May 2025, the main contract price of SHFE zinc oscillated in a low - level range. Affected by multiple factors, the zinc price did not change its oscillating trend, closing at 22,225 yuan/ton with a monthly decline of 0.96%. LME zinc showed a trend of rising first and then falling, closing at 2,629.5 US dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 1.9% [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - US economic data has weakened, with manufacturing and non - manufacturing expansion slowing. Retail sales and durable goods orders have declined. However, the employment market remains resilient, and inflation pressure has eased. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, and the market generally expects a rate cut in September. The tariff policy is full of uncertainties [12][13]. 2.2 Eurozone - The Eurozone's recovery is weak, with the manufacturing PMI contracting. GDP growth is lower than expected, and inflation continues to decline. The ECB cut interest rates in June, and the market expects another rate cut in September. The EU - US tariff negotiation is tense, adding challenges to the Eurozone's economic recovery [15]. 2.3 China - China's economic data in April mostly declined, and the impact of tariffs is beginning to show. Although the export in April exceeded expectations, the manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, and the non - manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, indicating insufficient domestic demand. The market expects increased fiscal policies [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global zinc concentrate supply shift**: In March 2025, global mine zinc production increased. Overseas production increased by 4.4% year - on - year from January to March, and China's production increased by 2.3%. Although there were short - term disturbances overseas, the impact on production was limited. In China, the production of zinc concentrates in April was slightly higher than expected, and it is expected to increase in May. The annual domestic zinc ore increment is expected to be 90,000 metal tons [27][29]. - **Zinc concentrate processing fees and imports**: In June 2025, domestic and foreign processing fees increased month - on - month. In April, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, and it is expected to remain at a high level in May [34][35]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - **Overseas refineries**: Global refined zinc production in March 2025 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Overseas refineries have a situation of both production cuts and expansions, and the risk of supply disruptions still exists [37]. - **Domestic refined zinc**: In May 2025, domestic refined zinc production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase significantly in June. In April, the import of refined zinc increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window opened in late April [43][44]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - **Overseas terminal consumption**: In March 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased. In the overseas market, the real estate and automotive sectors showed short - term recoveries, but the medium - and long - term consumption prospects are unclear due to factors such as high interest rates and tariff uncertainties [47][48]. - **Domestic initial - stage enterprises and exports**: In early May, the operating rates of domestic initial - stage enterprises were relatively stable. In June, there is an expectation of a slight decline due to seasonal factors. The export of galvanized sheets has continued its strong momentum since 2024, but the growth of new export orders may be limited in May [59][60]. - **Domestic terminal consumption**: Infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, but there is a seasonal decline expectation in June - July. The real estate market remains weak but shows signs of weak recovery. The automotive industry maintains a high level of prosperity, and the home appliance industry shows resilience but faces medium - and long - term slowdown pressure. The demand in the photovoltaic sector may weaken marginally [61][70]. 3.4 Inventory - LME inventory continued to decline from a high level in May, and the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. The inventory inflection point is approaching as the supply recovers strongly in June and is expected to remain high in July [79]. Group 4: Summary and Outlook - The macro - environment is complex, with the US economic situation and trade uncertainties affecting the global market. China's economic export faces pressure, and there are expectations for increased fiscal policies. The supply of zinc is abundant, while the demand is weak, and zinc prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [82][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Cost side: During the reporting period, the price of spodumene continued to weaken, with Australian miners showing a strong willingness to sell at reduced prices while African mines tried to hold prices. The price of lepidolite also weakened, and the cost - support logic was difficult to materialize [3]. - Supply side: Affected by the continuous decline in lithium prices, there were frequent rumors of lithium salt plant overhauls in May, and high - frequency production declined. Low - cost salt lakes were gradually resuming production but could not fill the supply contraction gap [3]. - Consumption side: The production schedules of ternary and lithium - iron cathodes were relatively stable overall, but the spot inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream demand was weak. In May, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles was more stable than in April, maintaining between 31% - 32%. Energy storage orders improved, and export demand increased due to the easing of trade relations [3]. - Later views: The high - frequency production of lithium salt has rebounded, indicating the resilience of upstream supply at current prices. With the continuous increase in salt lake production, there are no expected disturbances on the supply side. Lithium ore prices follow the decline of lithium carbonate prices, and short - term cost narratives are difficult to materialize. The demand is expected to be stable. Although the sales of new energy vehicles may enter a slow - growth season, the recovery of energy storage export orders after the easing of Sino - US trade relations may fill the demand gap to some extent. Overall, supply is resilient, price increases will quickly drive upstream production, lithium ore resources are abundant, there are no upstream disturbance risks, and demand is expected to be relatively stable, with the fundamentals remaining flat [3]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review - Market review: In May, the price of lithium carbonate hit a new low. Before mid - May, it was in a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. After May 20th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to rectify vicious competition, and there were rumors of overhauls in Jiangxi lithium salt plants and potential environmental risks, leading to short - covering by bears and a price rebound. However, with the release of high - frequency data showing a slight increase in supply, the market's cautious sentiment eased, and the price weakened again [8]. - Spread review: In May, the electric - industrial spread of lithium carbonate weakened significantly, dropping from - 0.09 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 0.15 million yuan/ton. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price was lower than the industrial - grade spot price, closing the arbitrage window. The lithium carbonate - lithium hydroxide spread was near par, with no arbitrage opportunities during the reporting period [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis - Resource end: In May, the price of imported spodumene concentrate further declined, with the price of imported ore (5.5% - 6%) dropping from 722 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the month to 661 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of about 8.45%. The price of technical - grade lepidolite (2.5%) also slightly decreased. Although lithium ore prices continued to weaken, global lithium ore mining continued. Many lithium ore projects were accelerating in May. For example, the Jijiaoshan lithium mine of Dazhong Mining had completed the excavation tunnel, and the lithium ore resources in Quebec, Canada, increased significantly. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto Group reached development agreements for lithium salt lake projects with Chile [12]. - Imported ore lithium extraction capacity: In May, the production capacity of lithium carbonate was 214,860 tons, an increase of about 20,000 tons compared to April. The total lithium salt production in May was about 73,020 tons, an increase of 1,368 tons from April. However, there were rumors of production cuts in some lithium salt plants. The production in Sichuan, which mainly uses imported spodumene, decreased significantly from 12,400 tons in April to 9,900 tons in May, while the production of self - owned mica and Qinghai salt lakes showed strong resilience, with slight increases to 11,500 tons and 29,550 tons respectively [14]. - Lithium salt import: In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The increase was mainly due to the concentrated arrival of some imported resources, which may not be sustainable in the context of weak demand. The export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China decreased in April, which may lead to a contraction in domestic lithium carbonate imports in May. The scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina increased significantly, but the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping scale to China fluctuates greatly [16]. - Cathode materials: In May, the production of lithium - iron phosphate was about 269,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67%. The weekly average operating rate in May was about 58.19%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points from April. The production of ternary materials was about 63,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The weekly average operating rate of ternary materials in May was about 45.78%, an increase of about 0.6 percentage points from March. The production of ternary materials shifted towards the 6 - series. The inventory of lithium - iron phosphate decreased by 2,295 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by about 75 tons by the end of May [19][20]. - Battery production: In April, the total production of power and other batteries was about 118.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 51.22% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The production of ternary power batteries decreased by 0.3 GWh, and the production of lithium - iron phosphate power batteries increased by 0.3 GWh. The sales of power batteries decreased slightly. The price of square lithium - iron phosphate cells was stable at 0.34 yuan/Wh, and the price of square ternary cells was stable at 0.44 yuan/Wh. The battery factory had a cross - period production adjustment due to the Spring Festival, with significant inventory reduction in March and a slight increase in April. The inventory of vehicle manufacturers increased slightly in April, indicating limited terminal consumption growth [22]. - Power terminal: From January to April, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were about 4.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 46.26%. In May, the sales of new energy vehicles were relatively stable, with a single - week growth rate between 31% - 32%, lower than the nearly 40% growth rate at the beginning of the year. In the third quarter, the sales growth of new energy vehicles is usually weak, and the terminal demand is difficult to be significantly boosted. The new - replacement policy has a weakening effect on new energy passenger cars, and the policy focus is gradually shifting to new energy heavy trucks, ships and other transportation fields [25]. - Inventory: As of May 30, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,185 tons. The market inventory decreased significantly due to weak downstream procurement, while the salt factory inventory increased. The change in exchange warehouse receipts was not obvious. In the future, supply growth may be limited, and inventory trends will depend on downstream procurement plans. If the exchange warehouse receipts are excluded, the market inventory is not high, and downstream active inventory reduction may drive the reduction of factory inventory, while the total inventory level may remain stable [28]. III. Market Outlook - Cost and supply: Lithium ore prices follow the decline of lithium prices, and resource inventory is abundant. Supply is resilient, and there are no upstream disturbance risks (neutral) [29]. - Consumption side: New energy consumption enters the off - season, but the easing of trade relations boosts the increase in energy storage orders, and the demand is expected to be stable overall (neutral) [29]. - Overall view: The high - frequency production of lithium salt has rebounded, indicating the resilience of upstream supply. The supply side has no expected disturbances, and short - term cost support is difficult to materialize. The demand is expected to be stable. Although new energy vehicle sales may enter a slow - growth season, the recovery of energy storage export orders may fill the demand gap to some extent. Overall, supply is resilient, lithium ore resources are abundant, and the fundamentals are flat [29].