焦煤焦炭周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 供应压力较大 双焦震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 上周主要期货市场收市数据 注:(1)成交量、持仓量：手； (2)涨跌=周五收盘价－上周五收盘价； 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂节前检修高位，铁水产量偏弱，叠加终端需 求淡季，原料需求不佳。上周钢厂的焦炭生产维持，日 均焦炭产量小增，库存明显增加。 ⚫ 中游：焦化利润不佳，焦企开工放缓，焦炭产量减少。 全国平均吨焦盈利-66（环比-1）元/吨。上周产能利用 率为72.41%（-0.14）；焦炭日均产量63.31（-0.14） 万吨，焦炭库存81.45（-0 ...

豆粕周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 阿根廷产区偏干 连粕震荡收敛 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆3月合约涨11.25收于1067.5美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.07%；豆粕05合约涨24收于2751元/吨，跌幅 0.88%；华南豆粕现货收于3100元/吨，较上周持平；菜 粕05合约跌20收于2235元/吨，跌幅0.89%；广西菜粕现 货跌20收于2430元/吨，跌幅0.82%。 ⚫ 美豆止跌后震荡上涨，一是美国生柴政策即将发布预期 作用下，美豆油走强提振美豆；二是美豆出口销售进度 加快，对价格亦形成支撑；三是巴西 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The steel market is currently in a weak supply - demand balance, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1][4]. - Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions have weakened. Last week's industrial data was average, with stable production of five major steel products, declining apparent demand, and gradual inventory accumulation. The production of rebar rebounded, apparent demand declined, and both factory and social inventories increased. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with little data change [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3142 | - 21 | - 0.66 | 4363197 | 2373958 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3305 | - 10 | - 0.30 | 1840077 | 1453320 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 795.0 | - 17.0 | - 2.09 | 1409932 | 566469 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1157.0 | - 14.0 | - 1.20 | 5090547 | 657580 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1722.0 | 5.0 | 0.29 | 98670 | 39991 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. Seasonally weak demand pressured steel prices, but as the macro - situation improved and market sentiment stabilized, steel prices rebounded. They first fell and then rose during the week, with the overall center of gravity declining slightly. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3290 (- 10) yuan/ton [4]. - In 2025, national real estate development investment was 8278.8 billion yuan, a 17.2% decrease from the previous year. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659.89 million square meters, a 10.0% decrease; the new housing construction area was 58.77 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease; the housing completion area was 60.348 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease; the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, an 8.7% decrease; and the sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 8393.7 billion yuan, a 12.6% decrease [4]. 3. Industry News - No relevant content provided 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the profits of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, etc. [8][10][12][14][16][21][22][25][27][33][35][39]

锌周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 交投情绪拉扯 锌价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 9 上周沪锌主力期价高位震荡。宏观面，市场焦点集中在针对 格陵兰岛引发的欧美、美加关税争端，市场避险情绪表现反 复。国内 2025 年 GDP 实现 5%的增长目标，符合预期，12 月 单月数据看，投资、消费增幅放缓，内生经济复苏仍显缓慢， 政策可期的背景下，权益市场保持较高热情，带动商品市场。 基 本 面 看 ， 刚 果 金 Kipushi 锌 矿 产 量 小 幅 上 调 ， 但 Antamina 矿产量有所下调，叠加伊朗地缘局势持续不稳定， 海 ...

铁矿周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 港库高位运行 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 需求端：上周铁水产量弱稳，铁矿日耗低位运行，厂 内库存回升，钢厂春节前补库逐步增加。上周247家 钢厂高炉开工率78.68%，环比上周减少0.16个百分 点，同比去年增加0.70个百分点，日均铁水产量 228.1万吨，环比上周增加0.09万吨，同比去年增加 2.65万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外发运与到港环比回落，但到港高位 运行，港口库存持续增加。上周全球铁矿石发运总 2929.8万吨，环比减少251.1万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发 运总量2246.6万吨，环比减少359.8万吨。库存方面， 全国47个港口进口铁矿 ...

从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2026 年 1 月 26 日 市场博弈 铝价震荡 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，特朗普威胁就格陵兰岛问题对欧洲加征关税 的言论加剧政治紧张情绪，市场风险偏好一度回落，不过 伴随其后续收回威胁，地缘紧张情绪缓解。美国三季度GDP 上修，初请失业金人数小幅增加。PCE物价指数温和上涨， 强化短时美联储按兵不动，不过长期宽松预期不变。基本 面国内及印尼新投电解铝项目继续爬产供应继续缓增，铝 水比例继续下降。消费端铝价回落之后企稳，下游消费阶 段性小幅回暖，开工微幅回升，铝锭出库周内环比增加， 累库节奏放缓，铝锭库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's speech in Davos and agreements on Greenland and NATO, along with the US Supreme Court's decision, led to the resurgence of the "TACO trade," affecting the dollar, gold, silver, US bonds, stocks, and commodities [2]. - Domestically, the 2025 economic data was better than expected, with A - shares showing a positive mid - term trend despite short - term adjustments [3]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals' gold - silver ratio is expected to rise, copper prices will adjust in the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at high levels, etc. [4][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Trump defined Greenland as a US core security interest, reached a "future agreement framework" with NATO on Greenland and Arctic security, postponed the February 1 tariff measures, and the US Supreme Court maintained the ban on immediately dismissing Fed Governor Cook. The "TACO trade" reappeared, with the dollar index rebounding to 98.8, gold and silver retreating, the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling to 4.24%, and US stocks rising over 1% after sharp fluctuations [2]. - Domestic: The 2025 economic data was better than expected, with export resilience exceeding expectations, consumption falling as expected, and investment being a short - term drag. Fiscal and monetary policies will moderately support the economy in Q1. A - shares rose on Wednesday, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 leading the gain by over 3%, and the market entering a stage of volume - shrinking and differentiation [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4836.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.78% to $92.95 per ounce. LBMA predicted that the average silver price in 2026 would reach $79.57 per ounce. However, after the explosive growth in 2025, the market is over - inflated. The gold - silver ratio is at a 50 - year low and is expected to rise, with gold outperforming silver in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's main contract weakened, and LME copper sought support at $12,700. Trump's agreement with NATO on Greenland reduced market risk - aversion, causing copper prices to adjust downward. High copper prices dragged down domestic demand, and the global visible inventory increased. In the short term, copper prices will adjust, but the adjustment range may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24,155 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The easing of geopolitical tensions and the increase in downstream purchases during price adjustments limited the decline of aluminum prices. The position in the Shanghai aluminum market rebounded, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [8][9]. Alumina - On Wednesday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,672 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. A Henan alumina plant's maintenance had limited impact on production. The import window remained open, inventory continued to accumulate, and alumina supply remained in surplus, continuing its weak trend [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 22,895 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The cost of scrap aluminum did not decline further, and there was a game between supply and demand in the market. Cast aluminum prices will remain volatile [11]. Zinc - Trump's agreement on Greenland reduced risk - aversion, and the dollar rebounded, putting pressure on zinc prices. Teck's downward adjustment of the production guidance for the Antamina mine in 2026 and supply disruptions from the Iran situation tightened the supply of zinc ore. However, it is currently the consumption off - season, and high - priced raw materials suppress demand. Zinc prices will remain volatile [12][13][14]. Lead - Downstream battery enterprises' weak purchasing sentiment and high inventory suppressed lead prices. However, some smelters plan to increase production cuts, which will ease the decline in lead prices. Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [15]. Tin - Trump's agreement on Greenland reduced market risk - aversion, and the dollar rebounded, causing tin prices to give back some gains. High - level inventories decreased, but downstream demand for high - priced raw materials was weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, with macro - sentiment leading the price movement [16]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated. Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions weakened. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Supply remained high, and port inventory increased. Demand was weak in the off - season. Although there was an expectation of pre - holiday inventory replenishment, the overall supply was stronger than demand, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double Coking) - On Wednesday, double coking futures fluctuated and adjusted. The supply of coking coal and coke was loose due to coal mine resumption, while downstream demand was weak. The supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.04%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.36%. Argentina's soybean - producing areas may turn dry, which may affect yields. Domestic pre - holiday inventory replenishment and oil mills' price - holding intentions support the market. Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [20]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 1.28%. From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month. Supply contraction and inventory reduction are expected to support palm oil prices, which are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [21][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Overseas, concerns about geopolitics and fiscal sustainability triggered a systemic correction in the global bond market, with the US and Japanese bonds leading the decline. The US experienced a triple - kill in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, and market risk appetite deteriorated significantly. The market volatility is expected to rise. Domestically, the Ministry of Finance announced an active fiscal policy, and the A - share market is in a phase of shrinking volume and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remains positive [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals reached new highs due to geopolitical tensions and Poland's central bank's large - scale gold purchases. Base metals showed different trends, with copper expected to maintain high - level oscillations, aluminum adjusting, and zinc and lead under pressure. Agricultural products such as palm oil showed a strong oscillation trend, while bean and rapeseed meal were in a low - level oscillation [4][5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: Geopolitical and fiscal sustainability concerns caused a global bond market correction. The US faced a triple - kill in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, with the dollar index falling to 98.5, the 10Y US bond yield reaching 4.3% and then dropping, and the US stock market falling by over 2%. Gold reached a new high of $4783, and market risk preference deteriorated [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Finance committed to an "increasing only" active fiscal policy in 2026, with measures to support small and medium - sized enterprises and consumers. The A - share market is in a shrinking and differentiating phase, with short - term adjustments in the upward slope of stock indices but a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - On Tuesday, gold and silver reached new highs. Geopolitical tensions and Poland's central bank's large - scale gold purchase plan boosted the prices. The threat of US tariff hikes and EU's response to the Greenland issue increased geopolitical risks. It is expected that precious metals will remain strong in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a weak oscillation, and LME copper slightly corrected. Global copper inventories increased, with LME inventory rising to 156,000 tons and COMEX inventory reaching 547,000 tons. Trump's intervention in the Fed's policy and personnel appointment increased market risk aversion, and the soaring precious metals prices lifted the valuation center of copper. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,500 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. LME aluminum also fell. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased. Trump's tariff threat on Europe increased political tensions, and in the fundamentals, supply was stable, and it was in the consumption off - season. The Shanghai aluminum market is in an oscillatory adjustment phase [8][10]. Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,671 yuan/ton, down 2.91%. The supply side had minor changes, with some production resumptions and planned maintenance. The consumption side had stable electrolytic aluminum procurement, and the inventory in the exchange increased rapidly. Alumina prices remained weak [11]. Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22,765 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Cast aluminum maintained high - level oscillations based on low supply and cost support. Consumption was weak, and it is expected to remain in an oscillatory state [12]. Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a narrow - range oscillation during the day and a downward shift at night. LME zinc closed down. The downstream procurement was for rigid demand, and the market was affected by increased risk aversion. It is expected that zinc prices will be under pressure in the short term [13][14]. Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally during the day and shifted downward at night. LME lead closed down. LME lead inventory increased significantly, and domestic downstream consumption was weak. Although there is cost support, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16][17]. Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and fell slightly at night. The rise in the yield of Japanese 40 - year bonds increased market risk aversion, suppressing tin prices. The fundamentals changed little, and tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated and adjusted. Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions weakened. Rebar production slightly decreased, and hot - rolled coil production increased with high inventory. The steel market is in the off - season, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [19]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. Spot market transactions were 116 tons. Iron ore supply was high, and demand was weak in the off - season. Although there is a pre - holiday restocking expectation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted. The coke spot market initiated the first round of price increases, but steel mills have not responded. Demand was affected by the off - season and steel mill maintenance, and supply was abundant. It is expected that the futures prices will oscillate weakly [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean and rapeseed meal futures showed mixed trends. Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to reach 379 tons. As the Brazilian harvest progresses, South American supply is increasing. Domestic soybean arrivals are decreasing, and the market is in a state of de - stocking. It is expected that the futures prices will oscillate at a low level [22]. Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed up 1.2%. High - frequency data showed an improvement in palm oil exports and a decline in production. The market is affected by geopolitical risks, but the fundamentals of production and demand are improving. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [23][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances cause gold and silver to reach new highs, and China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025. The short - term risk appetite may continue to decline overseas, while the A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a still positive medium - term trend [2][3] - The risk of a tariff war due to the Greenland issue boosts the prices of precious metals, and they are expected to remain strong in the short term [4][5] - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term due to rising geopolitical risks and supply shortages [6][7] - The aluminum price is under high - level shock and adjustment due to rising risk aversion and supply pressure [8][9] - The alumina price continues to be weak due to supply surplus and cost decline expectations [11] - The casting aluminum market is in a state of weak supply and demand and is in shock adjustment [12] - The zinc price is in a sideways shock as the long - short situation is in a stalemate [13][14] - The lead price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand [15][16] - The tin price will have a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [17] - The steel price is in shock adjustment due to weak fundamentals [18] - The iron ore price is under shock pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [19] - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure [20] - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term as the Brazilian harvest progresses and the relationship between China and Canada eases [21][22] - The palm oil price is expected to be in shock operation, considering the changes in production and demand data [23] Group 3: Summaries According to Different Commodities Metals - **Precious Metals**: On Monday, gold and silver prices continued to rise to new highs. Geopolitical unrest and tariff war risks are the main factors. The short - term is expected to remain strong [4][5] - **Copper**: On Monday, the main contract of copper futures fluctuated. Geopolitical risks and supply shortages make the short - term price maintain high - level shock [6][7] - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the main contract of aluminum futures closed at 24090 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. High - level shock adjustment is due to risk aversion and supply pressure [8][9] - **Alumina**: On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2733 yuan/ton, down 1.19%. The price continues to be weak due to supply surplus and cost decline expectations [11] - **Cast Aluminum**: On Monday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 22890 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand and shock adjustment [12] - **Zinc**: On Monday, the main contract of zinc futures fluctuated narrowly. The long - short situation is in a stalemate, and the price is in sideways shock [13][14] - **Lead**: On Monday, the main contract of lead futures fluctuated weakly. The price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand [15][16] - **Tin**: On Monday, the main contract of tin futures stabilized and fluctuated. It will have a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [17] Steel and Minerals - **Steel (Screw and Coil)**: On Monday, steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. The market is in the off - season of demand, and the fundamentals are weak [18] - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted. High inventory and weak demand make the price under shock pressure [19] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On Monday, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and adjusted. Supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: On Monday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.26%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 2.37%. The Brazilian harvest progresses, and the short - term is expected to be weakly volatile [21][22] - **Palm Oil**: On Monday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.35%. Considering production and demand data changes, the short - term is expected to be in shock operation [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the US inflation data in November met expectations, stabilizing market expectations for the Fed in 2026. Trump postponed new tariffs on key mineral imports, and NVIDIA significantly reduced copper usage in data centers, suppressing precious metal and copper prices and cooling the bullish sentiment in the metal sector. Domestically and in Indonesia, newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects continued to ramp up production. The consumption - side saw a slight increase in the开工 rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils, while other sectors remained relatively weak. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 736,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory rose by 36,500 tons to 206,000 tons compared to before the holiday. Overall, the bullish sentiment in the metal market subsided, SHFE aluminum positions declined slightly, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the fundamentals and continuous inventory accumulation, putting upward pressure on aluminum prices, leading to high - level volatile adjustments, which are expected to be limited in the medium - to - long - term due to supply constraints [3][8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, last week, the aluminum alloy开工 rate remained stable at 58%. Repeated environmental protection policies and high costs hindered enterprises' resumption of production, keeping the开工 rate low. On the consumption side, downstream customers still had a fear of high prices, but due to continuously high aluminum prices, they were forced to replenish stocks, resulting in a slight increase in recent inquiries. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 110 tons to 70,000 tons. In summary, the cost support for cast aluminum has slightly weakened, and there is increased pressure for price adjustment in the off - season of demand. However, the uncertainty of regional tax policies and environmental protection restrictions form a rigid constraint on the supply side, and macro - favorable factors provide support, so the adjustment range is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price decreased from 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, to 3,128.5 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a drop of 20.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 24,420 dollars/ton to 24,020 dollars/ton, a decline of 400 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.8 to 7.7, a decrease of 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 9,825 tons to 488,000 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 49,838 tons to 140,750 tons. The spot average price increased by 442 yuan/ton to 24,302 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 24,302 yuan/ton, up 442 yuan/ton from last week; the South China Storage spot weekly average price was 24,334 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of the macro - environment, the US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The PPI and core PPI in November increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Energy cost increase was the main driver of the PPI rise. The US retail sales in November 2025 increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth since July last year. The market expected a 95% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in January 2026. China's foreign trade imports and exports in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and announced five other measures related to structural monetary policy tools [6][7]. - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's开工 rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. The开工 rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased slightly, mainly driven by pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment and the demand for can materials and packaging foils. Currently, the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment cycle has started, providing some support for the开工 rate of each sector, but high aluminum prices have restricted the scale of inventory replenishment, and with insufficient new orders, the increase is expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, on January 15, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons compared to before the holiday [7]. - For cast aluminum, the Friday SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy was 23,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 147 yuan/ton to 2,614 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum decreased by 93 yuan/ton to 3,743 yuan/ton. Last week, the开工 rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained flat at 58%. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 110 tons to 70,000 tons [7]. 3. Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, in the electrolytic aluminum sector, the market sentiment is bearish, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulating, leading to high - level volatile adjustments with limited medium - to - long - term adjustment. In the cast aluminum sector, there is increased pressure for price adjustment, but the adjustment range is expected to be limited due to supply - side constraints and macro - favorable factors [8]. 4. Industry News - In December 2025, China exported 545,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In the US physical aluminum market, as the benchmark price rises, the tariff part of the "premium" paid by buyers has increased from about 1,300 dollars per ton in June to 1,550 dollars per ton. China's automobile production and sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 34 million vehicles, setting a new record, and new energy vehicles have become the dominant force in the market, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [10][11]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, aluminum premiums, inventory seasonal changes, etc., which visually display the market data and trends of aluminum [13][14][16][18][20][22][24][27][30].