1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro aspect: US inflation pressure is lower than expected, and the market anticipates two more Fed rate cuts this year. A US lending company, PrimaLend, declared bankruptcy due to debt default, increasing market risk - aversion and causing the US dollar index to rise. Sino - US trade talks are ongoing, with a new round to start in Malaysia over the weekend after limited results from the first round [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is entering the rainy season, leading to weaker shipments. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains abundant, with APNI slightly raising the domestic benchmark price. The stainless - steel market is still sluggish, with steel mills reducing production, and raw - material market price - pressing for inventory, squeezing the profit of nickel - iron plants. The popularity of nickel sulfate continues, while the fundamental situation of pure nickel remains weak, with inventory accumulating both at home and abroad [3]. - Future outlook: The nickel market lacks clear guidance and will continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the RKAB approval quota scale. Indonesian mining companies have submitted their 2026 production plans, and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources may announce next year's nickel - ore approval quota scale after review. If the approved quota deviates from market expectations, nickel - price volatility may intensify. Indonesia is tightening control over nickel resources, so the cost is unlikely to drop significantly, providing strong support for the nickel price. However, the fundamental situation shows no significant improvement, with the traditional consumer market remaining sluggish and the actual demand boost from the power - battery end limited, so it's difficult for the fundamentals to drive price changes. Although macro - narratives still affect nickel prices, the current nickel price is mostly insensitive to regular narratives, with limited fluctuation range [3][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/17 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 122150 | 121160 | 990 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15361 | 15126 | 235 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 250854 | 250530 | 324 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 26810 | 27042 | - 232 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2550 | 2450 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 650 | 550 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 947 | 947 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 85.3 | 86.5 | - 1.11 | Million tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro**: US September CPI growth was lower than expected, and the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year. Due to government shutdowns, inflation data release was delayed, and the next - month data may not be released. Sino - US trade talks are progressing, with a new round in Malaysia after the first round was fruitless [5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from $49/wet ton to $50/wet ton, while that in Indonesia remained at $38.55/wet ton. Indonesia announced the October (Phase II) domestic benchmark price for laterite nickel ore, with a 0.27% increase. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is entering the rainy season, and future shipments are expected to decline [5]. - **Pure Nickel**: In September, China's refined - nickel production was 35,600 tons, a 13.07% year - on - year increase, with a capacity of about 54,198 tons and a 66% operating rate. Profitability improved, with MHP profit margin rising from 3.2% to 4.4% and integrated high - matte nickel profit margin rising from - 4% to - 2.6%. In September, China imported 28,367 tons of refined nickel, a significant 378.86% year - on - year increase, mainly from Russia. Exports were about 14,112 tons, a 33.21% year - on - year increase. As of October 23, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 645.74 Yuan/ton, with a slightly reduced loss [6]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 938 Yuan/nickel point to 930.5 Yuan/nickel point, a 0.08% weekly decline. In September, China's nickel - pig - iron production was 22,930 metal tons, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease, while Indonesia's was 139,900 nickel tons, a 0.14% year - on - year and 0.01% month - on - month increase. As of October 15, the nickel - iron physical - ton inventory was 253,100 tons, a slight increase of about 1,200 tons. In September, China imported about 1.0853 million tons of nickel iron, a 47.19% year - on - year increase, mainly from Indonesia [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was about 1.79 million tons, a 100,000 - ton increase from last year and flat month - on - month. Indonesia's production was about 430,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production is expected to decrease by 70,000 tons. As of October 23, the domestic 300 - series stainless - steel inventory was 557,300 tons, a decrease of about 4,900 tons. The supply contraction alleviated inventory pressure, but weak terminal consumption dragged down nickel - iron consumption and prices [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The battery - grade nickel - sulfate price remained at 28,550 Yuan/ton, and the electroplating - grade price at 30,750 Yuan/ton. In September, nickel - sulfate production was 33,971 tons (metal content), a 4.75% year - on - year and 11.45% month - on - month increase. The ternary - material production was about 75,360 tons, a 31.5% year - on - year and 2.6% month - on - month increase. As of October 24, the high - matte nickel to nickel - sulfate process profit margin was 5.4%, with a slight decline, while other raw - material process profit margins were negative [10]. - **New Energy**: From October 1 - 19, new - energy vehicle retail sales were 632,000 units, a 5% year - on - year and 2% month - on - month increase, with a 56.1% penetration rate. However, due to changes in the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax policy in 2026 and subsidy - policy adjustments, the actual demand may be affected, but there may be a release of pent - up demand at the end of the year [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel is 48,802 tons, an increase of 1,094 tons. SHFE inventory is 26,810 tons, a decrease of 232 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, an increase of 3,242 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 277,664 tons, an increase of 92 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia announced the October (Phase II) domestic benchmark price for nickel ore, with a 0.27% increase from the October (Phase I) price [14]. - Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) reported a 18.40% quarter - on - quarter increase in nickel production in Q3 2025, mainly due to increased raw - material processing and higher production at the Kola production base [14]. - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand from PT Eternal Nickel Industry, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on domestic and international nickel - price trends, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratio, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Soybean Meal [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [3] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 20.75 to close at 1041.75 cents per bushel, a 2.03% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 65 to close at 2933 yuan per ton, a 2.27% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 40 to 2940 yuan per ton, a 1.38% increase; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 19 to 2325 yuan per ton, a 0.82% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to 2470 yuan per ton, a 0.82% increase [5][8] - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. On one hand, the U.S. government shutdown continued, and the suspension of report data release led to a lack of market guidance. On the other hand, the optimistic sentiment of the China-U.S. negotiation heated up, and there was an expectation of an increase in U.S. soybean export sales. Pay attention to whether the U.S. soybean purchase agreement can be reached. The soybean meal stopped falling and stabilized. As the U.S. soybeans strengthened, the crushing profit continued to deteriorate, the procurement of soybeans for the December - January shipment slowed down, and the import cost was supported. As the soybean arrival volume decreased month - on - month, the domestic soybean meal may start a slow destocking rhythm, short - sellers reduced their positions, and the soybean meal rebounded significantly from the low level [5][8] - The sowing of Brazilian soybeans is going smoothly. Precipitation returned at the end of October, and the weather is suitable. The China - U.S. - Malaysia economic and trade negotiations reached a basic consensus on resolving the respective concerns of both sides. Regarding the soybean procurement trade agreement, details are awaited. As the external market rebounded and strengthened, the import crushing profit of Brazilian old - crop soybeans deteriorated, and the pace of ship purchases slowed down, which supported the domestic Dalian soybean meal. The operating rate of domestic oil mills rebounded significantly, the提货 demand increased significantly, and the feed enterprises' inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will enter a low - level volatile operation in the short term [5][12] Market Data | Contract | 10/24 | 10/17 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1041.75 | 1021.00 | 20.75 | 2.03% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 487.00 | 481.00 | 6.00 | 1.25% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 470.00 | 454.00 | 16.00 | 3.52% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | -204.80 | -177.89 | -26.90 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2933.00 | 2868.00 | 65.00 | 2.27% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2325.00 | 2306.00 | 19.00 | 0.82% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 608.00 | 562.00 | 46.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2940.00 | 2890.00 | 50.00 | 1.73% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2940.00 | 2900.00 | 40.00 | 1.38% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 7.00 | 32.00 | -25.00 | | Yuan per ton | [6] Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher due to the government shutdown and optimistic China - U.S. negotiation sentiment. The soybean meal stopped falling and rebounded with factors like deteriorating crushing profit and reduced soybean arrivals [5][8] - Analysts expect the U.S. soybean harvest rate as of October 19, 2025, to be 73%, with a forecast range of 61% - 82%. As of the week of October 21, about 39% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year [9] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.38 dollars per bushel, down from 2.72 dollars per bushel in the previous week [9] - As of the week of October 18, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 21.7%, up from 11.1% in the previous week, higher than 17.6% in the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 27.7% [10] - Abiove predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 178.5 million tons, the crushing volume will reach 60.5 million tons, and the export volume in 2026 will reach 111 million tons [10] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 768.7 million tons, an increase of 2.94 million tons from the previous week and 165.75 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 97.62 million tons, a decrease of 10.29 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.9 million tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 500.7 million tons, a decrease of 82.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 41.95 million tons from the same period last year [11] - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal in China was 108,360 tons, including 86,560 tons of spot trading and 21,800 tons of forward trading; the daily average pickup volume was 200,700 tons; the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons; the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 7.95 days [11] Industry News - In September 2025, the U.S. renewable fuel blending quantity increased compared with August, with the ethanol renewable fuel identification code (D6) generation quantity reaching about 1.23 billion and the biodiesel renewable fuel identification code (D4) generation quantity increasing by 20.9% to 660 million [13] - As of the week of October 16, 2025, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 24%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in the 2025/26 season in Brazil reached 51% of the planned planting area in the central and southern regions [13] - In September 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of the EU 27 countries + the UK was 1.576 million tons, the soybean crushing volume was 1.062 million tons, and the total oilseed crushing volume was 3.006 million tons [14] - Canada's AAFC made minor adjustments to the supply - demand data of major grains and oilseeds. The estimated ending inventory of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season remains at 2.5 million tons, with expected exports of 7 million tons and domestic use of 12.226 million tons [14] - The EU Commission proposed to further relax the anti - deforestation law, reducing the reporting burden on many small farmers and enterprises [15] - As of the week of October 15, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 478,400 tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, with cumulative sales reaching 37.9862 million tons. The cumulative export sales registration quantity of soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 12.259 million tons, and that in the 2025/26 season was 1.746 million tons [15] - The IGC's latest monthly report shows that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decrease by 1 million tons to 428 million tons year - on - year, the trade volume will increase by 2 million tons to 187 million tons, the consumption will decrease by 1 million tons to 430 million tons, and the ending inventory will decrease by 4 million tons to 79 million tons [15] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of the U.S. soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, etc. [16][20][23]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the fundamental improvement drove the spread of bullish sentiment, and lithium carbonate prices showed a strong upward trend. Terminal demand was hot due to the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026, while supply only had a small increase due to tight mica ore, leading to a decline in total lithium carbonate inventory. The widening of the C - structure of near - month contracts and the market's bet on the non - resumption of production of Zhenxiawo lithium mine also drove the price to break through and rise [4]. - In the short term, bullish sentiment may still push the price up, but the upside space is limited. The pressure on national subsidy funds is increasing, and the consumption boom driven by the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026 may face a cooling risk. The market has already priced in the supply gap caused by the shutdown of 8 lithium mines in Jiangxi in mid - August, and currently only Ningde Times' Zhenxiawo mine has not resumed production, so the upside space is expected to be limited [4][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - From October 17th to October 24th, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased, with changes of +4.58%, +5.33%, and +5.33% respectively. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price and the main contract price also rose by 4.94% and 4.81% respectively. The prices of cobalt - acid lithium, ternary materials (811 and 622) increased, while the price of phosphoric acid iron lithium remained unchanged and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB slightly decreased by 0.05%. The total lithium carbonate inventory remained unchanged [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of October 24, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 28,699 lots, with the latest matching transaction price of 73,480 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2601 was 431,100 lots [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of October 24, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 23,170 tons, an increase of 405 tons from the previous period. The import of lithium spodumene increased significantly, but the production increase of spodumene - to - lithium factories needed a further increase in lithium prices. Mica - to - lithium production faced a shortage of raw materials due to the shutdown of Zhenxiawo mine. Short - term supply remained high but was difficult to increase significantly [7]. - **Lithium Salt Import**: In September, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import volume from Chile decreased by 22.5% year - on - year, accounting for about 55.2%, and the import volume from Argentina increased by 242.9% year - on - year, accounting for about 35.5% [7]. - **Lithium Ore Import**: In September, the total import of lithium ore was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, the import from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, and the import from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month. The import from South Africa increased significantly [7]. - **Demand Side** - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of October 24, the production of phosphoric acid iron lithium was about 83,503 tons, with an operating rate of 73.49% (an increase of 5.6 percentage points from the previous period) and a decrease in inventory by 2,000 tons. The production of ternary materials was about 19,084 tons, with an operating rate of 49.94% (an increase of 0.34 percentage points from the previous period) and a decrease in inventory by 150 tons. The prices of ternary materials and phosphoric acid iron lithium increased [8]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From October 1st to 19th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 632,000, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. The penetration rate was 56.1%. The consumption boom driven by the reduction of purchase tax incentives in 2026 may face a cooling risk due to the shortage of subsidy funds [9]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by about 1,044 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by about 1,040 tons, market inventory decreased by about 13,194 tons, and exchange inventory decreased by 1,987 lots [10]. This Week's Outlook - Short - term bullish sentiment may still push the price up, but the upside space is limited because of the increasing pressure on national subsidy funds and the market's previous pricing of the supply gap [11]. 3. Industry News - Kodal's Bougouni project in Mali shipped its first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate on October 20, which will be transported to Hainan Yangpu Port to provide raw materials for Hainan Mining's lithium salt processing project [12]. - In Q3 2025, EVE Energy achieved both volume and profit growth. Its revenue was 16.832 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35.85%, and its net profit was 1.211 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.13% [12]. - Pilgangoora produced 224,800 tons of lithium concentrate in Q3 2025, a 1.6% increase from the previous quarter, and sold 214,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous quarter. Its FOB operating cost decreased by 12.8% quarter - on - quarter, but it is expected to face cost - rising pressure in the remaining time of this fiscal year [12]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, import lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, etc. [14][16][18][21][23][25]

铜周报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 降息预期抬升，铜价震荡向上 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周铜价震荡向上，主因美国9月CPI环比增速为三个月以 来最低值，市场降息预期再度升温，此外市场积极预期中 美双方能够延续此前友好对话合作共赢的谈判基础，二十 届四中全会宣布目标要建设现代化产业体系和强大的内 循环市场，并公布了五年的发展规划尤其是加快绿色转型 的速度和全面性，铜的绿 ...

2025 年 10 月 27 日 内外消息助推 铝价偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 ⚫ 宏观面，周末中美贸易谈判达成共识，市场风险偏好 回升。国内四中全会发布公报，本次会议公报围绕十 五五规划作出战略部署，对外部形势判断更严峻，但 经济韧性强、信心足，基调延续"稳中求进"态度。 基本面，供应端国内开工产能持稳，但海外世纪铝业 旗下的冰岛铝厂出现减产，涉及产能约20万吨。消费 端下游消费仍处季节性旺季，但板块间表现比较分 化，大部分板块开工率稳定上行，但铝板带箔开工率 有不同程度下滑，拖累整体铝加工开工率小幅回落 0.1%至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has declined, and the A - share market has seen a shrinking - volume weak oscillation. In the short - term, the stock market is expected to be weak, while in the long - term, it is cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market oscillated and rebounded, and a wait - and - see approach is still recommended [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Even if there are short - term rebounds due to economic data, the medium - term adjustment trend remains unchanged [4]. - Copper prices are oscillating. Before the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market is cautious. The overseas macro environment is unstable, and the fundamentals show that supply is constrained and consumption is slightly suppressed, so copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to perform well. Overseas supply is affected, and the domestic market follows the upward trend of the overseas market [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak and stagnant at a low level. Supply is in an oversupply state, but there is cost support at the futures end [9][10]. - Zinc prices are experiencing a weak rebound. Overseas squeeze - out support exists, but the domestic high - inventory pressure remains [11][12]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. Transportation control and production adjustment of some refineries support the price in the short - term, but there is downward pressure in the future [13][14][15]. - Tin prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Supply and demand are both weak, and there are few new contradictions [16]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Supply is stable, and demand is mixed. The market is waiting for policies in the polysilicon industry [17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices may see a short - term upward trend driven by bulls, but the upside is not expected to be overly high [19][20]. - Nickel prices may have a technical rebound due to cost support [21]. - For soda ash and glass, the strategy of widening the price difference can be gradually stopped, and the market will be in an oscillating and wait - and - see state later [22]. - Steel prices are under oscillating pressure. Spot trading is stable, but terminal demand is weak [23][24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. Supply is high, and demand is weakening [25]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are weakly oscillating. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [26][27]. - Palm oil prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the lower support range [28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [30] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, and other aspects from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - For nickel, it presents the price changes of SHFE nickel and LME nickel, and related data on warehouse receipts, inventories, and premiums from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - Similar data summaries are provided for zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal, including price changes, warehouse receipt and inventory data, and other relevant information [33][34][35][36][37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Russia-Ukraine peace talks have hit a snag, and European countries advocate an "immediate ceasefire" at the current front line. The US government shutdown has led to a lack of economic data, and the market is digesting the situation. Domestically, A-shares have risen, but the trading volume is still low. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, it is cost-effective to buy on dips. The bond market has also recovered [2]. - The silver squeeze has ended, and the Sino-US economic and trade relations are showing signs of easing. The precious metal prices are entering an adjustment phase, and the adjustment slope may be steeper, especially for silver [3][4]. - The copper price has slightly declined due to the rebound of the US dollar index and the weakening of market risk aversion. The supply of copper is increasing, while the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The copper price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price is oscillating. The macro - sentiment is stable, and the supply - demand situation is favorable. The aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [8]. - The alumina price is weakly oscillating. The winter procurement by aluminum plants in the northwest is putting downward pressure on the price. The theoretical loss of northern alumina production capacity is expanding, and the price is expected to have limited further downside [9]. - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The domestic supply is increasing, while the demand is weak. The LME has a low - inventory and strong - structure. The zinc price is expected to stabilize and oscillate narrowly in the short term [10]. - The lead price is oscillating narrowly. The supply in the domestic market is regionally tight, but the import window has opened, and the supply pressure is expected to increase gradually, causing the lead price to decline [11]. - The tin price is oscillating narrowly. The supply improvement of tin ore is limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. - The industrial silicon price is oscillating narrowly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [14][15]. - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is improving marginally. The lithium price may adjust in the short term after the first upward rush is blocked [16][17]. - The nickel price is oscillating. The inventory is increasing, but the price is at the lower end of the range with cost support. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [18][19]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is expected to widen. The soda ash fundamentals are slightly better than those of glass, and both are facing inventory accumulation pressure [20]. - The steel price is under pressure. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate under pressure [21]. - The iron ore price is oscillating weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore price is expected to adjust in an oscillating manner [22][23]. - The soybean meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian rainy season is expected to return in November, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [24]. - The palm oil price is oscillating widely. The production and demand of palm oil in Malaysia are increasing slightly, and the market driving force is limited. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are complicated. The US government shutdown has affected economic data. The market is waiting for the CPI data on the 24th and the APEC Sino - US summit at the end of the month. Domestically, A - shares have risen, the bond market has recovered, and the short - term stock market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The silver squeeze has ended, and the Sino - US economic and trade relations are easing. The precious metal prices have fallen sharply, and the adjustment slope may be steeper, especially for silver [3][4]. 3.3 Copper - The copper price has slightly declined. The market risk aversion has weakened, and the supply is increasing. The copper price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The aluminum price is oscillating. The macro - sentiment is stable, the supply - demand situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [8]. 3.5 Alumina - The alumina price is weakly oscillating. The winter procurement by aluminum plants in the northwest is putting downward pressure on the price. The theoretical loss of northern alumina production capacity is expanding, and the price is expected to have limited further downside [9]. 3.6 Zinc - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The domestic supply is increasing, while the demand is weak. The LME has a low - inventory and strong - structure. The zinc price is expected to stabilize and oscillate narrowly in the short term [10]. 3.7 Lead - The lead price is oscillating narrowly. The supply in the domestic market is regionally tight, but the import window has opened, and the supply pressure is expected to increase gradually, causing the lead price to decline [11]. 3.8 Tin - The tin price is oscillating narrowly. The supply improvement of tin ore is limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [12]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price is oscillating narrowly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The social inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [14][15]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The supply increase is limited, and the demand is improving marginally. The lithium price may adjust in the short term after the first upward rush is blocked [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - The nickel price is oscillating. The inventory is increasing, but the price is at the lower end of the range with cost support. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [18][19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The price difference between soda ash and glass is expected to widen. The soda ash fundamentals are slightly better than those of glass, and both are facing inventory accumulation pressure [20]. 3.13 Steel - The steel price is under pressure. The terminal demand is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The steel price is expected to oscillate under pressure [21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The iron ore price is oscillating weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weakening. The iron ore price is expected to adjust in an oscillating manner [22][23]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal price is weakly oscillating. The Brazilian rainy season is expected to return in November, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The soybean meal price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The palm oil price is oscillating widely. The production and demand of palm oil in Malaysia are increasing slightly, and the market driving force is limited. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has recovered, while A-shares have continued to shrink in volume. The US government shutdown may end this week, and the market's concerns about the fiscal deadlock have eased. The US stock market has risen, and the price of gold has increased by over 2%. In China, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, laying a foundation for achieving the annual target. The A-share market has closed higher with shrinking volume, and the style has significantly shifted to dividend value. [2][3] - The price of precious metals has reached a new high, driven by the strong expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and continuous hedging demand. The silver squeeze may end. The price of copper has rebounded due to China's stable economic growth. The price of aluminum has fluctuated due to stable macro and fundamental factors. The price of alumina has shown a weak oscillation due to the interaction between supply pressure and cost support. The price of zinc has slightly shifted upward due to the easing of trade tensions. The price of lead has oscillated at a high level due to tight regional supply. The price of tin has consolidated at a high level due to weak supply and demand. The price of industrial silicon has oscillated as demand awaits recovery. The price of lithium carbonate has oscillated due to the interweaving of long and short factors. The price of nickel has oscillated strongly due to the warm macro expectation. The prices of soda ash and glass have faced pressure due to the weakening of fundamentals. The price of steel has oscillated under pressure due to weak terminal data. The price of iron ore has oscillated weakly due to reduced arrivals and shipments. The price of soybean meal has oscillated weakly due to the progress of Brazilian soybean sowing and sufficient domestic supply. The price of palm oil has oscillated widely due to the narrowing increase in export demand. [4][6][8][9][10][12][15][16][18][20][23][24][25][26][29] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - This section presents the closing data of major futures markets for various metals, including copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, covering information such as closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and positions. [31] 2. Industrial Data Perspective - This part provides detailed industrial data for multiple metals, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals, such as contract prices, inventory changes, spot premiums and discounts, and price ratios between domestic and international markets. [32][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core View - Last week, copper prices stopped falling and stabilized. The main reasons were that China and the US were expected to restart a new round of negotiations, leading to a rise in market risk appetite. The dovish officials of the Federal Reserve still actively predicted two more interest rate cuts within the year. China's export growth rate rebounded in September, and stronger fiscal policies would support foreign trade and employment. Fundamentally, the supply growth rate of the mining end this year was less than 1%, and the output growth of the global smelting end was very limited. The domestic consumption was slightly worse than expected, but the tight - balance pattern remained. With the slowdown of macro - disturbances and the strong support of the cost end, it was expected that the copper prices would turn to a volatile upward trend in the short term [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From October 10th to October 17th, LME copper rose from $10,374/ton to $10,607/ton, an increase of 2.25%; COMEX copper rose from 484.5 cents/pound to 499.75 cents/pound, an increase of 3.15%; SHFE copper fell from 85,910 yuan/ton to 84,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%; international copper remained unchanged at 73,880 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.28 to 7.96. The LME spot premium/discount changed from -$31.19/ton to -$16.83/ton, a change of -46.04%, and the Shanghai spot premium/discount increased from 20 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of inventory, as of October 17th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 692,528 tons, a total increase of 2.35%. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons (-1.56%), COMEX inventory increased by 6,056 short tons (1.78%), SHFE inventory increased by 550 tons (0.50%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 11,500 tons (13.07%) [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price trend reasons**: The copper prices fluctuated in a range last week. The US government shutdown led to the postponement of important economic data, which might make the Fed's future policy path lose guidance. The market had fully priced in a small interest rate cut in October. China and the US agreed to conduct a new round of consultations as soon as possible. China's export growth rate rebounded, and the policy tone of stable growth and anti - involution was clear, which would boost the macro - expectation. Fundamentally, after the serious accident in Indonesia's Grasberg, the output in the fourth quarter was significantly reduced, the interference rate of major global mines continued to rise, the inventory in non - US regions was low, the domestic refined copper output declined, and the near - month futures market maintained a flat - water structure [2][7]. - **Macro - aspect**: China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. The Fed's dovish officials advocated interest rate cuts. The latest Fed's Beige Book showed that the Trump administration's tariff increase was pushing up inflation, and important economic data were missing during the government shutdown. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for this year to 3.2% but emphasized that the US tariff increase and trade protectionism were dragging down the growth. China's export in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the export of high - tech products and green products showed good growth [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: After the accident in Indonesia's Grasberg, the output in the fourth quarter was significantly reduced, and some mines such as Panama's copper mine and TECK also had production problems. It was expected that the third - quarter reports of mainstream mining enterprises would continue to lower the production guidance. In terms of refined copper, due to the shortage of raw materials, the domestic smelting output was expected to decline slightly from October to November. The domestic consumption was slightly worse than expected, but the tight - balance pattern remained [9]. Industry News - Chile's state - owned copper company Codelco proposed to sell copper to its European customers at a record - high premium of $325/ton next year, a 39% increase from this year. European largest copper smelting company Aurubis would also charge a record - high premium of $315/ton for refined copper from its European customers next year, due to concerns about copper supply shortage next year [11]. - Rio Tinto's copper production in the third quarter of 2025 was 204,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11%. The copper production of its Kennecott project in the US decreased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter due to engineering restrictions and maintenance. The copper production of its Escondida copper mine in Chile increased year - on - year, with the concentrate output increasing slightly and the refined copper output increasing mainly due to the release of project capacity. The copper production of its OT copper mine in Mongolia increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, setting a new record high [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [14][17][21].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued to perform strongly, with both gold and silver prices hitting new highs. On Friday, prices fluctuated significantly during the day session, reached new highs, and then corrected during the night session, ending the five - day consecutive increase in gold prices [2][5]. - The U.S. government has been shut down for over half a month, and many U.S. economic data releases have been suspended. The Republicans' temporary appropriation bill has been rejected for the 11th time. There are different views among Fed officials on the pace of interest rate cuts [5]. - Recent Sino - U.S. trade frictions have escalated again. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expects to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng before the APEC summit. If the negotiation progresses smoothly, both sides may make compromises to ease the current trade relations [2][6]. - The recent short - squeeze in the London silver spot market has pushed the silver price to a record high. However, the one - month lease rate of London silver spot futures has dropped from a high of 35% to around 20%, indicating that the shortage of London silver spot has eased [2][6]. - Many exchanges and banks have issued risk warnings due to the continuous and significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices. Although the long - term view on precious metal prices remains positive, the risk of short - term price adjustments for gold and silver has increased [2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 999.80 yuan/gram, up 98.24 yuan or 10.90%; SHFE silver closed at 12,249 yuan/kilogram, up 1,167 yuan or 10.53%. Other major precious metal contracts also showed varying degrees of price increases and volume changes [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices were strong last week, with gold and silver hitting new highs. The U.S. government shutdown and differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts affect the market. Sino - U.S. trade relations and the easing of the silver short - squeeze situation are also important factors [5][6]. 3. Important Data Information - The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast, and 3.1% in 2026. It has slightly raised the economic growth forecasts for the U.S. in the next two years and maintained China's growth forecast at 4.8% for this year [10]. - Economists surveyed by NABE have raised the growth forecasts for the U.S. economy in the next two years but expect weak employment growth. They predict that the U.S. GDP will grow by 1.8% this year, up from the 1.3% forecast in June [10]. - ECB President Lagarde cannot declare the end of the interest rate cut cycle. The Fed's economic beige book shows that economic activity has changed little recently, with a slight decline in consumer spending and stable employment levels [10]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings reached 1,047.21 tons on October 17, 2025, an increase of 30.05 tons from the previous week; ishare silver holdings were 15,497.40 tons, an increase of 53.64 tons from the previous week [11]. - The report also provides data on CFTC non - commercial positions in gold and silver futures, as well as various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and correlations of precious metals with other factors such as the U.S. dollar, inflation, and oil prices [14][15][16]