1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead ore and scrap batteries remains tight, providing good bottom support at the cost end. However, from mid - to late October, some electrolytic lead and secondary lead smelters will resume production, and there is an expectation of imported crude lead arriving, so the supply will increase marginally. On the demand side, the peak season for battery replacement in electric bicycles is coming to an end, and battery exports are still affected by tariffs and anti - dumping policies, so consumption is relatively flat. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Points - Macroscopically, there is still uncertainty in Sino - US trade friction, the market pays attention to its subsequent development, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October remains high, the US dollar continues to be weak, which supports metal prices. Fundamentally, the supply of lead ore and scrap batteries is tight, providing cost support. The supply will increase marginally as some smelters resume production and there is an expectation of imported crude lead. The demand is flat as the peak season for electric bicycle battery replacement is ending and battery exports are restricted. It is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5]. 3.2 Trading Data - From October 10th to 17th, SHFE lead dropped from 17,140 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; LME lead dropped from 2,014.5 dollars/ton to 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.51 to 8.66. The inventory of SHFE increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 13,400 tons to 250,400 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 215 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 adjusted slightly at a high level, closing at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.38%. LME lead continued to fall from a high level, closing at 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.13%. In the spot market, there is obvious regional supply tightness. Some holders are reluctant to sell at low prices or raise prices. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and some are waiting and watching. In terms of inventory, LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly, and it is expected that the social inventory will not increase significantly [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - From October 11th - 17th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 110 dollars/dry ton, both remaining flat compared to the previous period. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short lead in the next year was 6.8%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global lead ore supply will increase by 0.7% to 457,000 tons in 2025 and by 2.2% to 467,000 tons in 2026; the global refined lead demand will increase by 1.8% to 1.325 million tons in 2025 and by 0.9% to 1.337 million tons in 2026. The global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 tons in 2025 and 102,000 tons in 2026 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 to close at 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 20 to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to 2450 yuan per ton, a 1.61% decrease [4]. - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher, mainly due to the unexpectedly high crushing data released by NOPA, which boosted the price through demand. However, data on exports and harvest progress remained suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened, mainly because domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were at a high level compared to the same period, with sufficient supply. The expected easing of China - Canada trade relations and bearish sentiment exerted pressure. Additionally, the sowing in Brazil was progressing smoothly, the early - stage crops were growing well, and Argentina was about to start sowing with good soil moisture [4]. - The initial sowing work in Brazil was going smoothly. Precipitation in the central - western producing areas (such as Mato Grosso) was low in late October, which required continuous attention. China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations were about to take place in Malaysia, and trade sentiment cooled. Attention was paid to the high - level meeting during the APEC at the end of the month. The Canadian Foreign Minister visited China, and the China - Canada trade relations eased. The import of Canadian rapeseed might resume, and the market sentiment was bearish. Domestic soybean inventories were high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. It was expected that the continuous soybean meal would fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 cents per bushel to 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 2 dollars per ton to 481 dollars per ton, a 0.42% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans fell 2 dollars per ton to 454 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market fell 50.85 yuan per ton to - 177.89 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 yuan per ton to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 yuan per ton to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference rose 31 yuan per ton to 562 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China fell 30 yuan per ton to 2890 yuan per ton, a 1.03% decrease; the spot price in South China fell 20 yuan per ton to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the spot - futures price difference in South China rose 34 yuan per ton to 32 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher due to the unexpectedly high NOPA crushing data, but export and harvest progress data were suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened because of sufficient supply, expected easing of China - Canada trade relations, and smooth sowing in Brazil [7]. - The U.S. government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were suspended. The current harvest progress was estimated to be 70% - 80%. China had not purchased U.S. soybeans, and export demand was weak. The market expected a slight decrease in the October report's yield per acre to 53.2 bushels per acre [8]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel; the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 284.83 dollars per short - ton; the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 50.84 cents per pound; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 9.90 dollars per bushel [8]. - NOPA's monthly report showed that member companies crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans in September, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. As of September 30, the member companies' soybean oil inventory dropped to a nine - month low of 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 11.1%. Conab estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 177.6386 million tons, a 3.6% increase year - on - year, and the export volume would increase to 112.11 million tons. As of the week of October 10, 2025, domestic major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, and national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 147,300 tons, the average daily pick - up volume was 187,420 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 7.93 days [11]. Industry News - As of October 10, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, had reached 21.22% of the expected total planting area [12]. - As of the week of October 5, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased 8.7% to 80,500 tons. From August 1 to October 5, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 796,100 tons, a 59.2% decrease from the same period last year. As of October 5, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.274 million tons [12]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate had reached 14%, the third - fastest in the same period [12]. - Brazil exported 2,166,031.56 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 270,753.94 tons, a 26% increase from the average daily export volume in October last year [13]. - Canada exported 477,254 tons of rapeseed, 281,360 tons of rapeseed oil, and 446,993 tons of rapeseed meal in August 2025 [13]. - From January to July this year, the U.S. exported only 5.9 million tons of soybeans to China. Since May, China has stopped buying U.S. soybeans. A U.S. market research company predicted that if China did not return to the U.S. market by mid - November, the U.S. might lose 14 - 16 million tons of soybean orders to China [13]. - Last week, soybean planting in Brazil slowed down due to insufficient rainfall. Safras & Mercado estimated the national planting rate to be about 11.2%. In Paraná, the planting rate was about 38%, and in Mato Grosso, about 20% of the area had been planted [14]. - As of the week of October 14, about 39% of the U.S. soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was expected to be 18 million hectares, and the production was expected to be 51.1 million tons. The estimated 2025/26 planting area was 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the domestic oil and fat sector oscillated and declined, mainly dragged down by the drop in international oil prices. Palm oil showed a wide - range oscillation. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil both increased in the first half of October, with expected subsequent production slowdown and inventory reduction. Indonesia plans to raise export taxes to support the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026, which provides support for prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a restart of Canadian rapeseed imports, making rapeseed oil relatively weak. The continuous shutdown of the US government has suspended data reports, causing a lack of market guidance, but the higher - than - expected soybean crushing demand released by NOPA has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Overall, palm oil is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5][9][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract rose 1.13 to 51.1 cents per pound, an increase of 2.26%. BMD Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract fell 72 to 4,474 ringgit per ton, a decrease of 1.58%. DCE palm oil contract 01 fell 130 to 9,308 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.38%. DCE soybean oil contract 01 fell 46 to 8,256 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.55%. CZCE rapeseed oil contract 01 fell 200 to 9,861 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.99%. ICE rapeseed active contract rose 7.6 to 631 Canadian dollars per ton, an increase of 1.22% [5][6][8]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong dropped 210 to 9,250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao dropped 10 to 8,520 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu dropped 210 to 10,120 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.03% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and demand data: From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate by 0.21% month - on - month, and production by 6.86% month - on - month. The export volume data from different institutions showed increases ranging from 12.3% to 49.8% compared with the same period last month [10]. - Policy and inventory: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November to 4,262.23 ringgit per ton (1,008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 238.17 million tons, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory decreasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [11][12][15]. - Consumption data: In India, palm oil imports in September dropped 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest since May, while soybean oil imports surged 36.8% to 503,240 tons, the highest since July 2022, and sunflower oil imports increased by about 6% to 272,386 tons, the highest since January [12]. - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 11,800 tons, and that of palm oil was 847 tons [13]. Industry News - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months, reaching about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year, due to seasonal production decline and increased demand during festivals [14]. - Due to increased production and more working days in October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month to 2.4 million tons. Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandate in mid - 2026 and the seasonal low - production period from November to February may keep palm oil prices between 4,000 and 4,500 ringgit per ton. Analysts have raised the price forecast for Malaysian palm oil in 2025 by 130 ringgit to 4,330 ringgit per ton and in 2026 by 100 ringgit to 4,200 ringgit per ton [14][15]. - Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel, and the tax - increase plan is still under discussion among ministries [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major domestic oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the inventory trends of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory trends of domestic three major oils [17][18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the supply side saw a week - on - week decline in overseas shipments last week and an increase in arrivals, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with shipments expected to decline this week. The demand side had a slight drop in blast furnace operation and a decrease in daily hot metal production, which still remained above 2.4 million tons. Steel mill inventories decreased while port inventories increased. As the hot metal production on the demand side will gradually peak and the first batch of iron ore from the Simandou project on the supply side is about to be shipped, the supply - demand relationship will weaken, and iron ore prices are expected to run weakly [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3037 | - 66 | - 2.13 | 6235970 | 2668939 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3204 | - 81 | - 2.47 | 2721017 | 1479995 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | - 24.0 | - 3.02 | 1845337 | 535578 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1179.0 | 18.0 | 1.55 | 5827491 | 854021 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1676.0 | 9.5 | 0.57 | 115664 | 50896 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mill hot metal production continued to increase, with the daily average hot metal rising above 2.42 million tons. Steel mills actively replenished their inventories before the festival, and their inventories reached a high level in the same period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, flat compared with last week and 2.59 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average hot metal production was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared with last week and an increase of 6.59 tons compared with last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 2.34 percentage points compared with last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared with last week and a decrease of 19.05 percentage points compared with last year [1][4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week while arrivals increased, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, and shipments are expected to decline this week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons compared with last week. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2731.0 tons, a decrease of 94.9 tons compared with last week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14961.87 tons, an increase of 320.79 tons compared with last week; the daily average port clearance volume was 329.32 tons, a decrease of 12.22 tons [1][5]. Industry News - China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and will levy a special port fee on US - related ships starting from October 14 [10]. - Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation, emphasizing the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [10]. - Rio Tinto's Simandou project started loading the first batch of iron ore in the mine in October 2025 and transporting it to the port by rail. The first batch of iron ore is expected to be shipped around November, and the entire system commissioning is expected to last for several months, with a planned full - load operation of 60 million tons per year in 30 months [10]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23 [10]. - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce economic data such as the housing sales price report of 70 large and medium - sized cities in September and the economic performance in the third quarter on October 20. The central bank will announce the LPR quotation for October on the 20th, and the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the price changes of important production materials in the circulation field on the 24th [10]. - On October 18, He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures moved down and then fluctuated horizontally. Overseas macro events such as Sino - US trade friction, interest - rate cut expectations, government shutdown, and US bank credit crisis are uncertain, and domestic macro data is mixed. After the holiday, inventory accumulation is high, consumption improvement is limited, and supply is gradually recovering, leading to a weakening of supply - demand balance. The focus is on zinc ingot exports. If there is a certain volume of exports, it will improve the domestic oversupply expectation. In the short term, the macro direction is unclear, and fundamental support is insufficient, so zinc prices are expected to remain under pressure [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From October 10th to October 17th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,270 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price dropped from 2984.5 dollars/ton to 2942.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 42 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.46 to 7.41; the SHFE inventory increased by 2677 tons to 109,627 tons; the LME inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; the social inventory decreased by 1.32 million tons to 10.37 million tons; the spot premium increased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main ZN2512 contract of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated downward and then consolidated horizontally. The LME0 - 3BACK structure expanded, and part of the inventory became visible. After the LME inventory increased slightly, the zinc price stabilized. The final weekly decline was 2.11%, closing at 21,830 yuan/ton. London zinc hit the bottom and rebounded, with a weekly decline of 1.41%, closing at 2942.5 dollars/ton. In the spot market, the supply of goods in circulation was limited, and the spot maintained a small premium. Downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and actual transactions were mainly among traders [6][7]. 3. Industry News - From October 10th to 17th, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3400 yuan/ton, and the average imported ore processing fee increased by 0.25 dollars/dry ton to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short zinc in the next year reached 29.7%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global refined zinc production will increase by 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025 and by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons in 2026, while the demand will increase by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will expand from 85,000 tons in 2025 to 271,000 tons in 2026 [13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and London zinc, the internal - external price ratio, inventory, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates, reflecting the historical data and trends of these indicators [16][20][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has high expectations for the "TACO" trade due to the Sino-US trade game, the continuous rise of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and domestic policy expectations, leading to significant macro fluctuations. The proportion of molten aluminum on the supply side continues to rise, resulting in less pressure on aluminum ingot supply. The consumption side is still in the seasonal peak season, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decrease again. The LME spot premium overseas has been relatively high recently, increasing concerns about liquidity risks. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, ranging from 20,700 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 months increased by 32.5 yuan/ton to 2,778.5 yuan/ton, SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three decreased by 70.0 dollars/ton to 20,925 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1 to 7.5. The LME spot premium increased by 0.8 dollars/ton to 12.88 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 17,600 tons to 491,225 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 11,551 tons to 70,670 tons. The spot average price decreased by 63 yuan/ton to 20,902 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 40 yuan/ton, stabilizing around a small discount to par. The South China spot average price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference increased by 27 yuan/ton to 92 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 2.2 tons to 62.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.45 tons to 14.8 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.2 yuan/ton to 15,830.95 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 22.8 yuan/ton to 5,071.05 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,902 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of the South China spot was 20,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] 3. Market Outlook - The US government shutdown continued in the second week, delaying the release of economic data. Multiple Fed officials spoke, and the market's expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut in October continued to rise to 96.3%, and the probability of another rate cut in December also increased to 99.6%. The Sino-US trade game continued, with various news emerging, causing significant fluctuations in the market's macro atmosphere. In China, the year-on-year growth rate of core inflation in September recovered, and the manufacturing PMI continued to rise in the contraction range to 49.8%. Domestic policies to expand domestic demand this year may still be worth looking forward to. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September increased by 1.23 percentage points to 76.3%, and it is expected to increase by another 1 percentage point in October. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum operating rate remained stable at 62.5% last week. With the price decline and post-festival replenishment, the spot procurement enthusiasm was good. The spot price rebounded following the futures price, and the transaction premium and discount stabilized around a small discount to par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased again this week, with a reduction of 2.3 tons to 62.7 tons; the aluminum rod inventory was 14.8 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from last Thursday [3][8] 4. Industry News - In recent weeks, Canadian aluminum producers have increased shipments to the US market due to the rising aluminum prices in the US spot market, highlighting the impact of the 50% aluminum import tariff imposed by Trump earlier this year. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 report showed that bauxite production increased by 9% year-on-year to 16.4 million tons, alumina production reached 1.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and primary aluminum production was 0.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The company raised the production target for bauxite from 57-59 million tons (higher level) to 59-61 million tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the cancellation of the copper and aluminum futures storage point of Shanghai Port Cloud Warehouse (Shanghai) Storage Management Co., Ltd. in Baoshan District, Shanghai, with a verified storage capacity of 10,000 tons for both copper and aluminum [9] 5. Relevant Charts - The report includes 10 charts, showing the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio, the LME aluminum premium, the Shanghai aluminum current month - continuous one inter - period price difference, the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference, the seasonal spot premium of physical trade, the prices of domestic and imported alumina, the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and the seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [10][11][12][13][14]

2025 年 10 月 20 日 区间震荡延续 镍价先强后弱 李婷 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，美联储发布的经济揭皮书显示，居民消费支出有所 走弱，物价上涨及经济下行压力尤在，劳动力市场依旧低 迷，但颓势得以企稳。同期，IMF发布世界经济展望，报告 预期2025年全球经济增长约3.2%，较7月预期上调0.2个百 分点。此外，美联储官员表示10月仍有降息预期，但对降息 节奏存在一定分歧。 ⚫ 基本面：菲律宾1.4%品位镍矿拍卖价格微幅抬升，印尼镍矿 延续宽松预期，内贸升贴水平稳。镍铁厂成本压力尤在，且 不锈钢排产增量有 ...

关注宏观变化 期价震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 钢材周报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 李婷 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于10月20日 至23日在北京召开。10月18日，何立峰与美国财政部长 贝森特、贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方同意尽快 举行新一轮中美经贸磋商。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量201万吨，环比减少2万吨，表需 220万吨，增加74万吨，厂库185万吨，减少8万吨，社 库456万吨，减少11万吨，总库存641万吨，减少19万吨。 热卷产量322万吨，减少1万吨，厂库78万吨，减少6万 吨，社库341万吨，增 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, lithium carbonate showed a stable start after the holiday, with terminal consumption hitting new highs, and both spot and exchange inventories declined. The market's bullish sentiment emerged, leading to a significant rise in the market at the end of the week. Fundamentally, there are signs of marginal improvement, indicating an increase in downstream consumption after the holiday [4]. - In the later stage, the fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, and lithium prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but the upside space is limited. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand still has an incremental expectation, but the sustainability of its strength is questionable. Technically, there is resistance above 75,000 yuan [4][14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported lithium concentrate, and domestic lithium concentrate decreased, while the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price, lithium carbonate main contract price, and the prices of cobalt - acid lithium and ternary materials increased. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained) price slightly decreased. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.81% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and Delivery: As of October 17, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 30,686 lots, with the latest matching transaction price at 76,180 yuan/ton. The positions of the main contract 2511 were 159,000 lots [7]. - Supply Side: As of October 17, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,765 tons, an increase of 326 tons from the previous period. Low - cost production capacity is still being gradually put into operation, and African lithium resources inflow has further increased [7]. - Lithium Salt Import: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. The import average price decreased by about 14% compared with the previous period [8]. - Lithium Ore Import: In August, the total import of lithium ore was about 619,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.51%. The imports from different countries showed different trends [9]. - Demand Side - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of October 17, the production and prices of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials increased, and the inventory decreased. The installed capacity of iron - lithium batteries accounted for nearly 80%, and the inventory of iron - lithium cathode materials decreased significantly, indicating good terminal consumption [10]. - New Energy Vehicles: From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 367,000 units. New policies on vehicle purchase tax exemption and replacement and scrapping subsidies have been introduced [11][12]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by about 1,044 tons compared with the previous period [13]. This Week's Outlook - Terminal consumption is heating up, and lithium prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but the upside space is limited due to resistance from both fundamentals and technical aspects [14]. Industry News - Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium ore project shipped its first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate [15]. - Jinyuan Co., Ltd.'s Baqiancuo Salt Lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentina Carlo project is still in the exploration stage [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina is expected to continue its weak performance due to high operating rates, significant supply pressure, and increasing social and warehouse inventories. However, with sporadic production cuts and the futures main contract approaching the average cash cost line, the downside space may be limited. Future focus should be on alumina production cuts and winter storage in the northwest region [2][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/17 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2856 | 2800 | -56 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2992 | 2956 | -36 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 180 | 187 | 7 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 324 | 319 | -5 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 100.02 | 101.91 | 1.9 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 176029 | 221262 | 45233 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF Bauxite | 73.5 | 73.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract dropped 1.96% last week, closing at 2800 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 2956 Yuan/ton, down 36 Yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - In the bauxite market, northern regions (Shanxi and Henan) faced a large supply gap due to low mine operating rates. Southern regions' supply remained stable. Imported ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories declined but stayed above 30 million tons. The falling alumina price increased cost pressure on enterprises, reducing their enthusiasm for importing ore and pressuring imported ore prices [5] - On the supply side, alumina supply slightly decreased as an enterprise in Shanxi started minor production cuts due to ore shortages. Although some enterprises were close to losses, few took production - cut measures, and the reduction in production capacity was limited, providing insufficient support for alumina prices. As of October 16, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.3 million tons and an operating rate of 83.89% [5] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises had no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's supply remained stable, with no significant change in the demand for alumina. Northwest electrolytic aluminum plants conducted regular tender purchases, and some plants made small - scale spot purchases to replenish inventories. Transaction prices mostly continued the trend of trading at a discount [5] - In terms of inventory, last Friday, alumina futures' warehouse receipts inventory increased by 110,000 tons to 221,000 tons, while factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [6] 3.3 Market Outlook - From the perspective of the ore end, domestic ore is in short supply, and its price increase is restricted by the falling alumina price. Imported ore supply is generally abundant, although affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and its price is under pressure. On the supply side, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi has started minor production cuts due to ore issues, expected to affect a production capacity of 400,000 tons. Other alumina plants are not very willing to cut production due to factors such as long - term contract negotiations and the monthly average alumina price not reaching the cash - loss level, and no large - scale production - cut plans are seen for now [2][5][8] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's supply remains stable, with no significant change in the demand for alumina [2][5][8] - The warehouse receipts inventory increased by 110,000 tons during the week to 221,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, alumina still maintains a high operating rate, and the supply pressure remains significant. Social and warehouse receipts inventories are at high levels and continue to accumulate. Alumina is expected to continue its weak performance. However, with sporadic production cuts and the futures main contract approaching the average cash cost line of the alumina industry, the downside space may be limited [2][5][8] 3.4 Industry News - In Guinea, workers at the CBK aluminum mine company launched an indefinite general strike due to dissatisfaction with the management's "neglect of employee rights," demanding the implementation of the national mining industry collective labor agreement and the removal of the company's general manager, Peter Gaevskiy [8] - Australia's Canyon Resources plans to invest a total of 447 million US dollars in developing the Mimeta bauxite mine in Cameroon. Over 70% of the funds (about 176.8 million Central African francs) will be used for purchasing railway equipment, including ordering 22 locomotives from CRRC and 560 open - top wagons from India's Texmaco to meet the annual transportation demand of 10 million tons of ore [8]