Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation is neutrally positive, while there are more negative factors in the fundamentals. The impact of tariffs on battery exports is uncertain, consumption improvement is limited, and inventory has increased, putting pressure on lead prices. However, after the decline in lead prices, cost - side support emerges, and the elimination of backward production capacity by high - quality domestic supply is expected to improve the oversupply situation in the lead market. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy changes and consumption improvement [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From July 11th to July 18th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,075 yuan/ton to 16,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,017 dollars/ton to 2,011.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.47 to 8.36; the SHFE inventory increased from 55,149 tons to 62,335 tons, an increase of 7,186 tons; the LME inventory rose from 249,375 tons to 268,400 tons, an increase of 19,025 tons; the social inventory increased from 63,400 tons to 69,000 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons; the spot premium increased from - 225 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated and declined, with both domestic and foreign inventories rising simultaneously. The increase in tariffs on Chinese battery exports by Middle - Eastern countries dragged down the demand outlook. The lead price broke below the 17,000 - yuan mark and ended at 16,820 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.49%. On Friday night, it opened and closed higher. The strengthening of the US dollar and the significant increase in LME inventory dragged down the LME lead price, which continued to decline from 2,050 dollars/ton and then stabilized and rebounded on Thursday and Friday, finally closing at 2,011.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.27%. In the spot market, on July 18th, the lead prices in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2508 contract. Some smelting enterprises held firm on prices due to inventory reduction, and the price difference between the north and the south narrowed. The downstream demand was more inclined to the primary lead market [5] Industry News - As of July 11th, the weekly processing fee for domestic lead concentrates was reported at 500 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton compared to the previous week; the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates was - 50 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. In mid - August 2024, the Technical Secretariat for International Trade Anti - Damage Actions of the GCC announced an anti - dumping investigation into lead - acid batteries originating from or imported from China or Malaysia. According to the latest news, Middle - Eastern countries will impose different levels of tariffs on relevant Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises, with tariff ranges of 25 - 40%, 50 - 65%, and 55 - 70%, and 40 - 65% for other cooperative Chinese enterprises [8] Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery prices, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

铝周报 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 7 月 21 日 消息主导 铝价偏强运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 一、交易数据 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 上周美国CPI数据略有上行，但核心通胀水平依然温 和，市场对美联储降息预期谨慎，但仍保留了两次降 息预期次数。其后美国首申及零售数据保持韧性，令 美指周内连续反弹。国内工信部周末称对有色、钢铁 等重要十大行业优化产业结构，淘汰落后产能。基本 面，供应端贵州电解铝产能继续复产， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound due to the continuous boost of the anti - involution policy. The photovoltaic mid - and downstream sectors have entered a collective production cut rhythm, and the release rate of new upstream silicon material production capacity has significantly slowed down. The supply side is in a state of passive contraction, while the demand side is weak, and the industrial silicon spot price shows an oscillating upward trend. Technically, the futures price is expected to continue the oscillating upward trend in the short term [2][6][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Data - From July 11th to July 18th, the industrial silicon主力 contract price rose from 8415.00 yuan/ton to 8695.00 yuan/ton, with a increase of 3.33%. The prices of various spot grades also generally increased, except for the unchanged price of polysilicon dense material. The industrial silicon social inventory decreased from 55.1 tons to 54.7 tons, a decrease of 0.73% [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 1.1%. In the first half of the year, China's goods trade export volume reached 13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Exports to emerging markets grew rapidly, and high - tech product exports increased by 9.2% [7] - **Supply - side**: As of July 18th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.3%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas was 235, and the overall open furnace rate slightly rose to 29.8%. The open furnace rate in Xinjiang has dropped below 50%, and the increase in the open furnace rate in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season is limited. The production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is under pressure [7][8][10] - **Demand - side**: Polysilicon prices continue to rise due to cost increases, but there are no new orders for high - priced products. Silicon wafer companies have large differences in quotes, and high - level transactions are limited. Photovoltaic cells have the motivation to increase prices, but the overall increase in TOPCON cells is small. The component market has low terminal acceptance, and the demand for distributed projects has shrunk significantly in early Q3. Under the implementation of the anti - involution policy, the demand in the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a downward cycle [2][6][8] - **Inventory - aspect**: As of July 18th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,400 lots, equivalent to 252,000 tons. After the new regulations on delivery standards were introduced, the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened [9] Industry News - On July 9th, the General Administration of Market Supervision and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on promoting the development of new energy through metrology from 2025 - 2030, including research and application demonstrations of key common metrology technologies in multiple new energy fields [11] - Driven by policies, there has been a boom in photovoltaic installations in Zhejiang Province this year. In the first half of the year, the new installed capacity was 12.2 million kilowatts. On July 3rd, the maximum photovoltaic output in the province reached 37.61 million kilowatts, a record high. The province is also accelerating the construction of supporting facilities and exploring "photovoltaic +" scenarios [12] Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production of main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products [14][15][16][17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, the moderate rebound of inflation and the better - than - expected retail data in the US highlighted economic resilience. Domestically, the good performance of H1 GDP was offset by concerns about insufficient policy stimulus in H2. The statement of optimizing supply by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18th ignited market enthusiasm [3][4][11]. - Fundamentally, domestic refinery production increased, with stable operation of new projects, slowdown in processing fee growth, good refinery profits, and sufficient raw materials. The supply was on the rise. The zinc market remained stronger overseas than in China, and imports were difficult to increase. In the demand side, it was the off - season for consumption, and the actual demand was weak. The galvanized plate consumption confidence was boosted, but the actual order increment was limited. The operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide were weak. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the spot premium further declined, while the inventory accumulation slowed down [4]. - Overall, the domestic and foreign macro - environment was moderately positive, and the fundamentals were weak. The market hoped that the supply optimization could improve the surplus situation of the zinc market. In the short term, the zinc price was mainly influenced by macro and policy expectations, and the futures price was expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, it was still unclear how the supply optimization policy would affect the zinc industry chain, so caution was needed when chasing up the price [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE zinc decreased from 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th to 22295 yuan/ton on July 18th, a decline of 85 yuan/ton. LME zinc increased from 2738 dollars/ton to 2824 dollars/ton, an increase of 86 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.17 to 7.89, a decline of 0.28. The SHFE inventory increased by 4649 tons to 54630 tons, the LME inventory increased by 13850 tons to 119100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 60 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2509 first declined and then rebounded. Supported by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the black - series prices rose, which was beneficial to the zinc price. It found support around 22000 yuan/ton and then rebounded slightly, closing at 22295 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LME zinc price stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2824 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.14% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream procurement motivation weakened, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc prices and premiums varied in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangdong, and Tianjin [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of July 18th, the LME zinc inventory was 119100 tons, an increase of 13850 tons from last week. The SHFE inventory was 54630 tons, an increase of 4649 tons. As of July 17th, the social inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons from July 10th. The inventory in Guangdong and Tianjin increased significantly, while that in Shanghai decreased slightly [8]. - In the macro - aspect, in the US, the CPI in June increased moderately, the core CPI was lower than expected, the PPI reached a new low, and the retail sales exceeded expectations. There were also various international trade and policy news, such as Trump's tariff - related statements and trade negotiations among countries. In China, the H1 GDP was 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries were about to be introduced [8][9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 18th, the average weekly TC of domestic Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 7.27 dollars/dry ton to 73.75 dollars/dry ton. Excellon Resources was preparing to restart the production of the Mallay silver - lead - zinc mine in Peru next year, which had produced 6 million ounces of silver, 45 million pounds of zinc, and 35 million pounds of lead from 2012 to 2018 [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, the spot premium, the LME premium, the inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, the processing fees of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the import profit and loss of zinc mines, the domestic refined zinc production, the smelter profit, the net import of refined zinc, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [14][16][17].

供给扰动频现 锂价偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 碳酸锂周报 2024 年 7 月 21 日 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面：藏格矿业旗下全资子公司藏格锂业被要求停产， 《通知》要求相关企业完善资源合法手续后向相关部门申 请审批方可复产。此外，宜春市突发锂矿审批合规事件， 涉事矿上8座，目前暂未停产。监管部门要求相关企业在9 月30日前重新提交相关手续。基本面上，受锂价反弹驱动， 锂辉石精矿及云母价格均 ...

铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 铁水环比增加 铁矿延续上涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3147 | 9 | 0.29 | 8063884 | 3107454 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 33 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Macro Aspect**: The US economic growth maintains a slight increase, with some areas seeing rising prices. Fed officials' hawkish remarks suggest maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy. The impact of tariffs on prices is not obvious yet, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. The short - term disturbance may come from the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, and the macro is about to enter a data - silent period [3]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, with prices in the Philippines and Indonesia showing signs of weakening. Nickel - iron prices are under continuous pressure, and stainless - steel mills have low production schedules. The nickel sulfate market has improved, but the transaction has not fully recovered. Pure nickel shows no significant change in premium and discount. The inventory is accumulating again, and there is no obvious improvement expectation in the fundamentals [3]. - **Future Outlook**: There is no improvement expectation in the industry. Although the trading in the nickel sulfate market has recovered, the sales growth of new - energy vehicles is weak. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded, but steel production is still shrinking. Supply has recovered, but export profits have shrunk, making it difficult to drive upstream production increase. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate under macro - level disturbances [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Nickel Prices**: SHFE nickel decreased from 121,100 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton; LME nickel increased from 15,064 dollars/ton to 15,218 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 264 tons to 21,560 tons. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 1,662 tons to 229,136 tons [4][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, and Indonesia has lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore in the second phase of July. The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia show signs of weakening [3][5]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 903.5 yuan/nickel point to 900 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia shows different trends. Stainless - steel mills have low production schedules, and the demand for nickel - iron is limited. However, due to cost - price inversion, some factories have reduced production or switched to high - grade nickel matte production, and the price may bottom out soon [6]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly from 27,420 yuan/ton to 27,230 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while the production of ternary materials increased. The spot market has improved, but the actual demand is not strong enough to drive price reversal [7]. 3. Terminal Consumption - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 332,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The annual cumulative sales growth rate is gradually declining. There are also some policies to support the new - energy vehicle industry, such as standards for battery replacement and subsidy policies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel has rebounded under policy drive, but steel mills' production schedules are still in a contraction phase, and the strong consumption expectation has not been fulfilled [3][11]. 4. Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Policy**: Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic benchmark price in July, which decreased by about 0.11% compared with the first - phase price. The RKAB approval mechanism will return to annual approval next year [12]. - **Company Operations**: PT GAG Nikel in West Papua has not been allowed to resume operations [12]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US will impose a 19% tariff on all imported Indonesian goods, and Indonesia will purchase US energy, agricultural products, and Boeing aircraft [12]. 5. Related Charts - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premium and discount, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

铜周报 鸽派立场渐浓，铜价止跌反弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因满足COMEX关税截止日期前的套 利窗口正在关闭致使部分货源回流LME，造成美铜溢价估 值向下修复，6月美国CPI温和上行，关税影响并未完全显 现，目前美联储鹰鸽两派分歧加剧，鹰派官员认为需要紧 缩的货币政策来遏制通胀升温的势头，而仍有部分官员认 为今年仍应降息两次，虽然全球贸易局势干扰加剧，但降 息预期的升温令资本市场风险偏好回升。基本面来看，海 外矿端紧缺事实不变，LME库存持续回升，海外精铜供应 逐渐趋松，主流矿企二季报已增产为主，国内社会库存小 幅增加，近月B结构转向平水。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 ⚫ 整体来看，因美联储内部鹰鸽两派分歧较大令9月降息扑 朔迷 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 避险情绪升温，金银预计偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 贵金属周报 一、上周交易数据 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周国际金价呈震荡走势，而银价则在创历史新高之后出 现回落。美国与其他贸易国的谈判仍存在风险，且美联储 主席易主的传闻愈演愈烈，市场担忧美联储货币政策突然 转向的风险，但美国经济数据保持韧性，美元指数持续反 弹对贵金属价格形成压制。银价在创出39.57美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - policy expectations are strong, and the short - term sentiment is warm. Although the steel fundamentals are in a weak pattern with poor off - season demand and average trade transactions, it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile and upward trend [1][6]. - The industry data last week was average, with weak supply and demand in the steel market. The supply and demand of rebar both decreased significantly, and inventory accumulation started last week. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils were stable with little change [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3147 | 9 | 0.29 | 8063884 | 3107454 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3310 | 34 | 1.04 | 2822204 | 1610257 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 785.0 | 18.5 | 2.41 | 1917710 | 703244 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 926.0 | 6.0 | 0.65 | 6863004 | 850792 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1518.0 | - 7.0 | - 0.46 | 144894 | 54981 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile and upward trend. The real - estate investment in the first half of the year remained weak, and the infrastructure investment decreased month - on - month. The terminal demand pressure remained high, but the market was affected by sentiment and showed an upward trend. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3000 (+40) Yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3250 (+30) Yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3340 (+40) Yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Multiple departments over the weekend called for "anti - involution". The China Iron and Steel Association required to control production capacity and prevent over - capacity risks; relevant departments regulated the new - energy vehicle industry competition order; the National Development and Reform Commission aimed to prevent inefficient and repeated construction in the low - altitude industry [7]. - On the morning of July 19, the construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion Yuan [1][5][7]. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 46658 billion Yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real - estate development enterprises all decreased [1][5][7]. - In the first half of the year, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248654 billion Yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The investment in some industries such as power and water supply increased significantly [5][7]. - The China Iron and Steel Association said that relevant departments would crack down on tax evasion in steel exports, and the annual steel export volume is expected to be between 7000 and 8000 million tons [7]. - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasized that urban development has entered the stage of "stock quality improvement and efficiency increase" [5][7]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, spreads, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and apparent consumption, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][27][28][29][31][33][34][36][38][39]