1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's potential rate - cut in September and the weakening US dollar are favorable for risk assets, but the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes may disrupt market risk appetite. The domestic economy has the basis to achieve the annual growth target, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [2][87]. - Zinc concentrate supply is steadily recovering, with the growth of domestic ore processing fees slowing down and the acceleration of the recovery of imported ore processing fees. In September, due to more refinery maintenance plans, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% to 60.98 tons, and zinc ingot imports still face large losses [2][87]. - Zinc demand is differentiated. Infrastructure construction is expected to speed up, and the issuance of the third batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds supports the domestic sales of durable goods. The delay of Sino - US tariff policies eases the export pressure of related products, and the concentrated grid - connection of deep - sea projects promotes the development of the wind power industry. However, the real estate market is weak, photovoltaic demand is overdrawn, and galvanized sheets are affected by anti - dumping, which will drag down consumption [2][87]. - Overall, the Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies provide support for zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to whether the improvement in consumption can be effectively realized [2][87][88] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level, with a monthly decline of 0.92%. London zinc's center of gravity moved slightly upward, with a monthly increase of 1.88% [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is mixed. Employment is cooling, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's stance has turned dovish. The probability of a rate cut in September is high, and the US dollar is in a weak position, which is favorable for risk assets. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes will affect market risk appetite [8][9][10]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - The eurozone's manufacturing prosperity is continuously recovering, inflation is stable, and the employment market is improving. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, but the political crisis in France may put pressure on the euro [11][13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Situation - Most domestic economic indicators slowed down in July, but exports showed strong resilience. The annual growth target can still be achieved, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply is recovering. Overseas zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations [28][32][33]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, from January to June, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Domestic production increased, while overseas production decreased. In September, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% month - on - month, and zinc ingot imports are expected to decline [38][44][45]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - From January to June 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased year - on - year. In the overseas market, the improvement of real estate and automobile consumption is uncertain. In the domestic market, the start - up of downstream primary processing enterprises in September is expected to improve, and the export of galvanized sheets has resilience. Traditional consumption sectors such as infrastructure and real estate show different trends, and emerging consumption sectors such as new energy have both opportunities and challenges [52][59][61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - In August, LME zinc inventory decreased rapidly, and domestic social inventory increased seasonally. In September, domestic social inventory is expected to turn to destocking [85]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies support zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to the improvement of consumption [87][88].

贵金属月报 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 降息预期强化，金银再创新高 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 风险因素：美联储独立性危机持续恶化、美 国通胀数据超预期上涨 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 16 ⚫ 近期特朗普对美联储强势干预使得美联储的独立 性危机加剧，以及美国就业数据走弱，市场对美 联储降息预期强化。加上投资资金流入ETF、央 行持续购金以及实物需求复苏等多重利好因素， 均为黄金和白银价格提供强劲支撑。我们认为， 短期金银不宜追涨，但中长期依 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China-US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. The August USDA report is bullish, with the planting area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, the yield per acre estimated at 53.6 bushels, and the ending inventory dropping to 290 million bushels. Recent low precipitation in the production areas has led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate. Attention should be paid to the yield adjustment in the September report. The Ministry of Commerce has issued an anti-dumping investigation ruling on imported Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit ratio of 75.8% and an extended investigation period, strengthening the expectation of tightened rapeseed imports. The meteorological organization has reported that the La Nina phenomenon may return in September, and the soybean sowing work in South America is about to begin. Track the changes in weather [3][71]. - Domestic aspects: In terms of the ship - booking progress, the booking progress for November is 14%, 1.5% for December, and sporadic for January. The overall progress is slow. Market rumors suggest that 3 - 6 million tons of imported reserve soybeans will be released in November to ease the tight supply situation. The purchase of Argentine soybean meal is limited and there are quality problems. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The arrival of soybeans from August to September is sufficient, the crushing operation rate is high, and the supply of soybean meal is still available. Feed enterprises purchase on a spot - as - needed basis, and the purchase of basis positions has increased under the expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The提货 demand is good, and there is support on the demand side [3][71]. - Recently, the dry conditions in the production areas have led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate of US soybeans, and there is a large variable in the final yield. Last year, due to continuous low precipitation in the production areas from August to September, the yield continued to decline. The sowing season in South America has begun, and attention should be paid to the impact of the return of La Nina. The Brazilian premium is running strongly, providing support for import costs. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the fourth quarter. The short - term arrival of Brazilian soybeans is still dragging down the upward rhythm. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [3][72]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since August, soybean meal has first risen and then fallen, showing a range - bound operation. At the end of August, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 19 to close at 3055 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 70 to close at 2940 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44%. The main contract of CBOT US soybeans rose 62.75 to close at 1053 cents/bushel, an increase of 6.34%. In early August, the price steadily increased, mainly supported by the extension of the China - US tariff agreement as scheduled and the strengthening of the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. In the middle of August, it rose sharply and then fluctuated, mainly driven by the unexpectedly bullish USDA report. In late August, the price of soybean meal continued to decline and adjust, mainly due to the news of the release of imported reserve soybeans in November and the expectation of a positive outcome in the China - US trade negotiation [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the August USDA report, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 367.7 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous month's estimate. The ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 124.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous month's estimate, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 29.38% [12]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The August USDA report is bullish. In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans increased by 10 million bushels to 1.875 billion bushels, and the crushing demand increased by 10 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting area of US soybeans decreased by 2.5 million acres, mainly due to the increase in the behavior of US farmers switching to corn planting under the influence of China - US tariff frictions. The yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels/acre to 53.6 bushels/acre, but the overall production estimate decreased to 4.292 billion bushels. As of now, due to the high tariffs on US soybean imports, China has not made any purchases, and the export demand for US soybeans has decreased by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending inventory has dropped to 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.66%, indicating an expectation of tightening supply [15]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of the week of August 24, 2025, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week of August 26, about 11% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas in the next 15 days will be 30 - 35mm, lower than the average level. The eastern production areas are relatively dry. The 2025 Pro Farmer inspection report shows that the development of this year's soybean crops is better than that of the same period last year. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels/acre, and considering the dry weather in August, the estimated yield may be slightly adjusted downward [21][22]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - The data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) shows that the US soybean crushing volume in July was 195.699 million bushels, higher than the market average expectation of 191.59 million bushels. The cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to July 2025 was 2.114335 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.70%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.99 dollars/bushel [24]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week of August 21, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market season were - 189,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.87 million tons. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week were 1.373 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 7.23 million tons. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans [27]. 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - According to the USDA report, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet has basically not been adjusted. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean production remains at 175 million tons, the export demand is 112 million tons, the crushing demand is 58 million tons, the ending inventory is 36.96 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.21%. In July 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume was 12.26 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) data shows that the estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in August is 8.94 million tons [31][39]. 2.7 Argentine Soybean Situation - The August USDA report shows that in the 2024/2025 season, the Argentine soybean production increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, the import volume increased by 300,000 tons to 6.8 million tons, the crushing demand increased by 500,000 tons to 42.6 million tons, and the ending inventory was 24.95 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Argentine soybean production is expected to be 48.5 million tons, the export demand increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons, the crushing demand remains at 43 million tons, and the ending inventory is 24.65 million tons [41]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Situations - According to customs data, in July 2025, China's soybean import volume was 11.67 million tons. In terms of the ship - booking rhythm, as of August 19, the purchase progress for November - January is relatively slow. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in August - September is about 10 million tons each month [47]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.8253 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, and the unexecuted contract was 4.9174 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons. As of the week of August 29, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 149,540 tons, the daily average 提货 volume was 193,580 tons, the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.87 days [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises is 33.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in the compound feed and concentrated feed is 14.1% [63]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China - US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. Pay attention to the yield adjustment in the September USDA report, the tightening of rapeseed imports, and the impact of the possible return of La Nina [71]. - Domestic aspects: The ship - booking progress is slow, and the release of imported reserve soybeans in November may ease the tight supply situation. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The current supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the demand side has support [71]. - It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was over 2.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 192,000 tons. In September, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, iron ore demand will still be resilient [3][40]. - In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase. Both monthly shipments and arrivals were at the highest levels of the year. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [3][41]. - In the next month, focus on the impact of steel mills' phased restocking on the market. With a 90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, after the end of parade - related production restrictions, northern blast furnaces will resume production, increasing phased restocking demand. As the National Day holiday approaches, there is still restocking expectation in mid - to - late September. With the improvement of supply - demand margins, iron ore is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, but the upside is limited by high steel inventories and weak terminal demand. The price range to watch is 700 - 890 yuan/ton [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, iron ore futures showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend, remaining relatively firm under the background of both supply and demand decline. In early August, the futures price rebounded due to better - than - expected steel demand in the off - season and strong exports. In mid - August, the iron ore price dropped as steel downstream demand was insufficient. In late August, iron ore was resistant to decline as its demand remained high. In September, pig iron output will remain resilient, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation will support the iron ore price, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged [8]. - The spot price oscillated with a slight increase. As of early September, the 62% Platts Index rose 2.6% to $102.7, and the PB powder spot price rose 1 yuan to 769 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores weakened. The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder dropped from over 120 yuan/ton to around 100 yuan/ton. The spread between the 09 - 01 contracts weakened last month and then rebounded in September [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Demand with High - level Fine - tuning and Overall Strong Resilience - In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was above 90%, and the daily average pig iron output of steel mills was over 2.4 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate slightly declined from 64.94% to 63.64%, remaining at a high level in recent years, supporting high - level pig iron output. In September, iron ore demand will still be resilient, and attention should be paid to the actual realization of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [10]. - Overseas, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September increased to 90%. The crude steel output of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly. In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics decreased by 1.3% year - on - year [11]. 3.2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Stable with an Increase - From January to July, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase, and both monthly shipments and arrivals were at the highest levels of the year. The weekly average shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24 million tons. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [15]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In the previous month, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China decreased slightly month - on - month, remaining at a moderately high level overall but showing a differentiated structure. As of early September, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.25 million tons. The overall high iron ore inventory has limited support for the iron ore price [18]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - The iron ore inventory of steel mills decreased slightly. As of early September, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.39 million tons. Steel mills' profitability at a high level this year drives restocking. After the end of production restrictions and as the National Day holiday approaches, there is restocking expectation, which will support the spot price. Currently, steel mills maintain low - inventory management [31]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of domestic mines are at a neutral level in recent years, with a low possibility of significant short - term production increase. As of early September, the daily average concentrate output of 186 domestic mines was 452,000 tons, and the mine concentrate inventory was 681,500 tons [35]. 3.2.6 Freight Situation - In August, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) adjusted slightly. As of September 3, the BDI index was 1940 points. The freight rates of the Australian and Brazilian routes to Qingdao increased. Currently, the freight rates are at a medium - to - high level within the year, but the upside may be limited due to unstable global macro - demand [37]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Demand side: In August, iron ore demand slightly declined from its peak but remained resilient. In September, driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season expectation, iron ore demand will still be resilient. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of terminal demand and changes in steel mill profits [40]. - Supply side: In August, the overall supply was stable with a slight increase. Seasonally, September shipments are expected to decline month - on - month, while the arrival intensity in September will increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. In the next month, with the improvement of supply - demand margins, iron ore is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, but the upside is limited by high steel inventories and weak terminal demand. The price range to watch is 700 - 890 yuan/ton [41].

铜周报 2025 年 9 月 8 日 非农数据惨淡，铜价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 | 库存地点 | 9 月 5 | 日 | 8 月 | 29 | 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME 库存 | 157950 | | 158900 | | | -95 ...

021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 工业硅周报 反内卷氛围浓厚，工业硅向上运行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅企稳反弹，主因国内反内卷情绪持续升温，多 晶硅市场传出行业减产保价及限产限销小作文，中国8月 制造业PMI呈现企稳回升态势。供应来看，新疆地区开工 率升至62%，川滇地区丰水期开工率复苏有限，供应端呈 被动收缩态势；从需求侧来看，多晶硅企业开始出现限产 限销动作，龙头企业尝试拉高出货价格但遭到下游抵制； 硅片市场供求结构转向健康选择上调报价，并向下游释放 积极信号；光伏电池过剩压力显著缓解，在外需提供较强 支撑的背景下，高效电视片销量持续走高；组件端因成本 支撑较强近期价格以上下游博弈为主，终端来9月集中式 项目装机有限，分布式项目仅靠工商业订单勉强支撑，但 当前市场矛盾集中在中游硅料端，工业硅社会库存继续降 至53.7万吨，工业硅现货市场盘面震荡而逐渐企稳走高。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z001 ...

豆粕周报 关注 USDA 报告发布 连粕延续震荡 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约跌26.25收于1026.75美分/蒲式 耳，跌幅2.49%；豆粕01合约涨12收于3067元/吨，涨幅 0.39%；华南豆粕现货涨20收于2960元/吨，涨幅0.68%；菜 粕01合约涨37收于2550元/吨，涨幅1.47%；广西菜粕现货 涨30收于2590元/吨，涨幅1.17%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2025 年 9 月 8 日 ⚫ 美豆震荡收跌，主要是中美贸易谈判乐观情绪降温，大豆 采购协议未达成， ...

2025 年 9 月 8 日 需求预期不强 钢价宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 钢材月报 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 14 ⚫ 供给端：8月钢材供应端呈现高位趋稳态势，品种间 分化明显。下旬，受重大事件限产扰动，河北等地 高炉开工率下，但阅兵后钢厂将积极复产。9月钢厂 集中复产后，钢材供应边际回升，库存累积压力增 加，关注下游承接能力。 ⚫ 需求端： 9月份，需求端将季节性改善，但预计强 度有限。建筑钢材传统旺季 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina: After a period of relatively high - level operation, the supply surplus in the alumina market has gradually affected the spot market. With the accumulation of social inventory and a significant increase in exchange warehouse receipts, the spot price has declined. In the third quarter, new production capacity in Guangxi is expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure remains high. Given the stable electrolytic aluminum production capacity on the consumption side, the market balance is under pressure, and the price is expected to remain weak. However, the cost of bauxite and potential policy support will limit the downside [3][63]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased, but the proportion of molten aluminum has risen by 1.3% to 75.07% in August, reducing the supply of aluminum ingots. Some aluminum - processing sectors have shown signs of entering the peak consumption season, with an increase in the operating rate. The power and new - energy vehicle sectors are expected to grow well, and exports remain resilient, while the real - estate and photovoltaic sectors are sluggish. The inventory accumulation rate of aluminum ingots has slowed down, and there are occasional destocking periods. Overall, the supply - demand balance has improved marginally, and aluminum prices are expected to rise during the peak season. However, the upside potential is limited, and the price increase may be volatile [3][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Alumina Futures: In August, the price of alumina futures first rose from 3,160 yuan/ton to a maximum of 3,384 yuan/ton and then gradually declined to 3,006 yuan/ton. It closed at 3,036 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 4.8% [9]. - Shanghai Aluminum Futures: In August, the price of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated but generally trended upward. It rose from a minimum of 20,365 yuan/ton to 20,835 yuan/ton due to the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and then declined. It closed at 20,740 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.17% [10]. - London Aluminum Futures: In August, London aluminum futures fluctuated due to the changing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. It remained within the previous month's trading range, closing at 2,619 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, up 2.2% [10]. 3.2 Macro 3.2.1 Overseas - Tariff Policy: The US has made multiple tariff adjustments, including expanding the list of critical minerals, imposing tariffs on EU products, and increasing tariffs on Indian goods, which have a negative impact on global trade [12]. - Fed Policy: The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, but Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was dovish, increasing the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. However, the personnel change and concerns about the Fed's independence have affected market expectations [12]. - Economic Data: In July, the US CPI and PPI increased, the unemployment rate rebounded in August, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was higher than expected. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high since 2022. In Europe, the ECB's inflation risk is balanced, and the economic growth in the eurozone may slow down in the third quarter [13][15][16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - Economic Data: In July, China's industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales growth rates all declined, and the CPI was flat year - on - year. The M2 and M1 growth rates increased, and the new special - purpose bonds issuance accelerated [17][18]. - Policy: Beijing and Shanghai relaxed property - purchase restrictions in August, and the central government promoted the development of urban agglomerations and the renovation of old urban communities [18]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - Domestic Bauxite: In August, the supply of domestic bauxite remained tight, and the price was stable. The high - price bauxite may face limited acceptance due to the declining alumina price [20]. - Imported Bauxite: In July, China imported 20.063 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 33.75%. However, due to the rainy season in Guinea and policy uncertainties, the import volume may decrease in the short term [20]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - Domestic Production: In July, China's alumina production was 7.704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13%. It is expected that the production in August will be about 7.76 million tons. The supply in the north is relatively loose, while that in the south is still tight [23]. - Import and Export: In July, China exported 229,400 tons of alumina and imported 125,900 tons, with a net export of 104,000 tons. In August, the export window remained closed, and the import window opened, but the net - export pattern is expected to continue [24]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - Inventory: As of the end of August, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 98,000 tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory has been accumulating [25]. - Spot: In August, the alumina futures price dropped rapidly, and the spot price followed, with the spot premium increasing from 28 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 247 yuan/ton at the end of the month [25]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - Cost: In July, the average fully - cost of the alumina industry in China was 2,933.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. The decrease in the price of liquid caustic soda led to a slight reduction in costs [26]. - Profit: With the decline in the alumina price, the profit margin has narrowed [26]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook The supply of alumina is expected to remain under pressure, but the cost of bauxite and potential policy support will limit the downside [3][63]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Domestic Production: In July, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7396 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. It is expected that the production in August will be about 3.745 million tons [37]. - Overseas Production: In July, the global (excluding China) electrolytic aluminum production was 2.406 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%. It is expected that the production in August will be 2.411 million tons [38]. - Import and Export: In July, China imported 248,300 tons of primary aluminum and exported 41,000 tons, with a net import of 207,300 tons. The import window is expected to remain closed [

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The US EPA faces significant resistance in redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RINs from 2023 and 2024 to large refineries. If the previously set biofuel blending targets are met, it will be bullish for US soybean oil in the long - term. Indonesia plans to launch the B50 policy in 2026, which may increase palm oil demand by 3 million tons, but policy implementation is uncertain. With the gradual implementation of the B40 policy, the B50 policy provides some support [3][48]. - In terms of production and demand, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase slightly in August, with good export demand. Market institutions expect the ending stock of Malaysian palm oil in August to increase to 2.2 million tons, with a slightly loose supply. India's imports increased significantly in August due to festival stocking and cost - effectiveness, but future ship purchases are slow, and market transactions are sluggish. High prices suppress demand, and downstream maintains just - in - time procurement [3][48]. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payroll data in August was far below expectations, strengthening the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US Treasury bond prices rose significantly, and the US dollar index oscillated at a low level. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase production in October, pressuring oil prices. In the short - term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust, and in the long - term, if biofuel policy targets are met, the price center will rise [3][49]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Market Review - Since August, the oil sector has oscillated and closed higher. In the domestic market, at the end of August, the palm oil 01 contract rose 398 to 9316 yuan/ton, up 4.46%; the soybean oil 01 contract rose 200 to 8358 yuan/ton, up 2.45%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 340 to 9789 yuan/ton, up 3.6%. In the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 147 to 4377 ringgit/ton, up 3.48%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.65 to 52.1 cents/pound, down 4.84%; the ICE canola active contract fell 67.5 to 627.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.71%. In the spot market, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices also rose [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.812 million tons, up 7.09% month - on - month; exports were 1.309 million tons, up 3.82% month - on - month; domestic consumption was 483,000 tons, up 6.63% month - on - month; ending stock was 2.113 million tons, up 4.02% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons, which had a bullish impact [22]. 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In August, different data sources showed different trends in Malaysian palm oil production. In terms of exports, data from ITS, AmSpec, and SGS all showed an increase in exports from August 1 - 31 compared to the same period last month [26]. 3.2.3 Indonesia Situation - In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.289 million tons, up 728,000 tons month - on - month and 1.244 million tons year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the total production was 27.89 million tons, higher than the same period last year [33]. 3.2.4 India Vegetable Oil Imports - In July 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.55 million tons, up 20,000 tons month - on - month and down 290,000 tons year - on - year. Different oils had different import trends [35]. 3.2.5 China Oil Imports - In July 2025, China's palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflower oil imports showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The total imports of the three major oils decreased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [40][43]. 3.2.6 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.4091 million tons, up 2600 tons from the previous week and 2.913 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory of different oils also had different changes [45]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - Biofuel policy progress and implementation have uncertainties. In terms of production and demand, Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the supply is slightly loose. India's imports are affected by festivals and prices. Macroeconomic factors and oil price trends also impact the palm oil market. In the short - term, palm oil is expected to oscillate and adjust, and in the long - term, if biofuel policy targets are met, the price center will rise [48][49]