Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the overall blast furnace production was relatively strong, but the number of blast furnace overhauls increased in the second half of the month, and the molten iron output has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, the construction industry entered the off - season, and the drag from the real estate sector intensified. Steel mills will actively reduce their loads, and the molten iron output will continue to decline [1][6][9]. - In May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. From a seasonal perspective and considering shipping schedules, there is a possibility of a small increase in both shipments and arrivals in June [1][14]. - In the next month, both supply and demand will be weak, and the iron ore price will be under pressure. The supply pressure will increase, and the inventory at ports may start to accumulate slightly in June. The demand for molten iron has been declining for four consecutive weeks, and the terminal demand in the off - season has weakened. The iron ore price is expected to move downward [1][37]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the iron ore futures price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weakening and volatile trend. In the first half of the month, the iron ore price was strong, supported by the continuous increase in molten iron output and positive progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the second half of the month, the price declined due to the expectation of the off - season for terminal demand and the decline in molten iron output. In June, the market sentiment was cautious due to the weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in supply [6]. - In May, the spot price in Qingdao Port declined, while the Platts Index price was relatively strong. As of June 4, the Platts Iron Ore Price Index 62 Qingdao Port was at $96.35 per ton, a month - on - month decrease of $2.8 or 2.8%. The price differences between high - and low - grade ores weakened, and the spread between 09 - 01 contracts widened slightly [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Iron Water Output Declined from a High Level - In May, the blast furnace production was relatively strong, with the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills at 244 tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. As of June 6, the molten iron output dropped to 241.8 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 tons, and it has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, due to the off - season for construction and the slowdown in export growth, steel mill overhauls will increase, and the molten iron output is expected to decline further [9]. - Overseas, the demand for iron ore showed a weakening trend. The overseas consumption of iron elements decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the slowdown in economic growth. The crude steel production of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly [10]. 2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments were Stable, with an Expected Increase in June - On June 6, the Western Range Iron Ore Project jointly developed by Rio Tinto and Baowu officially started production, with a designed annual capacity of 25 million tons [13]. - In May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. However, the pressure on iron ore prices restricts the development of high - cost mines [14]. - Last month, the arrival volume decreased slightly. From January to April 2025, the national iron ore imports decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, with a significant decline in non - mainstream imports [15]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - As of early June, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.26 million tons, a decrease of 4.75 million tons compared to the beginning of last month and a decrease of 11.01 million tons compared to the same period last year. In June, the arrival volume is expected to increase, and the port inventory may start to accumulate slightly [23]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In May, the steel mill inventory of iron ore continued to decline and remained at a low level. As of early June, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 86.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68 million tons. Steel mills will actively reduce their raw material inventories to avoid risks [27]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In May, the production of domestic mines continued to contract, both month - on - month and year - on - year. In the short term, the production reduction trend may continue. In the long - term, the production reduction trend may continue due to the peak of crude steel production and safety policies [28][31]. 2.6 Freight Rates - As of June 5, the BDI index was at 1626 points, a month - on - month increase of 15%. The freight rates for the routes from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao increased compared to the beginning of last month [33]. 3. Market Outlook - On the demand side, the molten iron output has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, the construction industry entered the off - season, and the drag from the real estate sector intensified. Steel mills will actively reduce their loads, and the molten iron output will continue to decline [36]. - On the supply side, in May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. In the next month, both supply and demand will be weak, and the iron ore price is expected to move downward [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro level: US economic soft data has been revised, but the Fed's attitude remains hawkish, and the game between Powell and Trump will continue. Tariff risks have resurfaced, and the court's ruling on Trump's tariffs has been postponed. The "TACO" trading strategy is prevalent, and policy disturbances may be quickly repaired [3]. - Cost aspect: The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persisted throughout the month, and the price of laterite nickel ore continued to rise. Although there was information about a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia in the middle of the month, the nickel ore price did not loosen, and cost support remained [3]. - Fundamental supply and demand: Both supply and demand decreased. The production of electrolytic nickel contracted slightly, but the export window remained open, and the overall domestic supply remained at a high level. The production of stainless steel decreased for the second consecutive month, and the inventory - reduction process was tortuous. The easing of tariffs did not effectively drive stainless - steel consumption. The production schedule of ternary materials was generally stable, and there were no obvious marginal changes in the fundamentals [3]. - Outlook: Trump's tariff policy may cause periodic disturbances at the macro level, but the policy disturbances may be quickly repaired. On the fundamentals, driven by the export window, the domestic supply of electrolytic nickel may remain at a high level. The inventory of stainless steel is being reduced, but the progress is slow, and the effect of rushing to export may be difficult to materialize. The new - energy consumption growth rate is gradually slowing down, and it is difficult for the demand side to show obvious increments. Overall, there is no expectation of improvement in the fundamentals, the cost - support logic remains, and the macro level may have periodic disturbances, but the correction expectation is strong. Nickel prices may fluctuate at a low level [3][40]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In May, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly. At the beginning of May, due to the boost of the China - US trade agreement, the macro - expectation was repaired, and the nickel price rose. However, as the stainless - steel inventory remained high, the expectation of rushing to export was frustrated, and the price weakened. In the late month, the rumor of a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia dragged down the nickel price, but the price quickly recovered after the fall [8]. - The spot premium of refined nickel first weakened and then strengthened. Although the nickel price declined in May, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The premium decreased from 2400 yuan at the beginning of the month to 2150 yuan on May 22nd. At the end of the month, affected by the sharp decline in the nickel price, the downstream purchasing was stimulated, and the premium rose from 2150 yuan on the 22nd to 2600 yuan on the 30th [10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas - US economic data was mixed. In April, the year - on - year growth rate of the US core PCE was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure eased. The manufacturing performance was below expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in May at 48.5. The labor market was generally stable [13]. - Tariff risks remained, but the actual disturbance was limited. Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but then the ruling was postponed. Although Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum products on May 30th, the market believes that his tariff policy will still follow the "high - start and low - end" pattern, and the "TACO" trading strategy is still popular, so the actual impact is limited [14]. Domestic - The performance of the manufacturing industry was divided, indicating that domestic demand was stronger than foreign trade. In May, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.5, in line with expectations, and the demand - side data improved. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was weaker, reflecting the difficulties faced by small and medium - sized private manufacturing enterprises [15]. - Domestic consumption vitality was increasing. In April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased for the second consecutive month, and the CPI growth rate was repaired [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Nickel Ore Shortage Continued, and Ore Prices Kept Rising - The price of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia (1.5%) increased from $39.1 per wet ton to $40.8 per wet ton, while the price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore in the Philippines decreased from $51 per wet ton to $48.5 per wet ton. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was tight, and the price remained strong. Although there was news of an increase in the approval quota, the price did not loosen. The continuous rainfall in Indonesia and the Philippines affected the shipment of nickel ore [17]. - In April, China's nickel - ore imports were 291.41 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. As of May 30th, the domestic port inventory was about 725.88 tons, a slight increase compared with the end of April but still at an absolute low level in the past three years [19]. 3.3.2 Electrolytic Nickel Supply Contracted Month - on - Month, and Upstream Cost Pressure Was Prominent - In May, the total output of refined nickel in China was 35,350 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.82%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.34%, 16.13 percentage points lower than the expected level, and the over - capacity pattern continued. In April, the profit margins of all process lines of integrated electrowinning nickel decreased [20]. - In April, China imported 19,157 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of about 135.76%. The export volume was about 17,216 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 150.3% and 18.51% respectively. The export window remained open, and the average monthly export profit in May was repaired to $204.78 per ton [22]. 3.3.3 Weak Downstream Buying, and Nickel - Iron Inventory Continued to Accumulate - In May, the price of high - nickel pig iron declined from 959 yuan per nickel point at the beginning of the month to 954 yuan per nickel point at the end of the month [24]. - In May, China's nickel - iron output was 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. In June, the expected production was 25,640 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. The cost was strong, and only the Shandong pyrometallurgical BF process could maintain good profits, while the RKEF and EF processes had negative profit margins. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the terminal consumption was still weak. As of May 30th, the domestic nickel - iron inventory was about 275,500 tons (physical tons), an increase of about 27,500 tons compared with the end of April [25]. - In April, the domestic nickel - iron imports were about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The imports from Indonesia accounted for about 97.28% [26]. 3.3.4 No Obvious Increment in Demand, and the Expectation of Nickel Sulfate Was Stable - In May, the price of nickel sulfate fluctuated weakly. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased from 28,085 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate decreased to about 30,000 yuan per ton [28]. - In May, the output of nickel sulfate was 26,015 tons (metal content), a year - on - year decrease of 20.51% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The output of ternary materials increased. The output of 5 - series and 8 - series ternary cathode materials decreased month - on - month, while the production of 6 - series ternary materials expanded. Except for the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, which was still in a loss state, the profit margins of other process lines were positive. In April, China imported about 32,604 tons of nickel sulfate and exported 567 tons [29]. 3.3.5 Supply Contracted, and Inventory Was Slowly Reduced - In May, the price of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the net export scale in April decreased slightly. The downstream demand had no obvious increment. As of May 30th, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons compared with the end of April, but the inventory - reduction strength was less than the production - reduction strength, reflecting weak consumption [31]. 3.3.6 Limited Growth in the Power Sector, and the Industrial Track May Shift - From January to April, the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 4.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 46.26%. From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31%, but the growth rate was lower than the nearly 40% growth rate at the beginning of the year. The new - energy vehicle sales in May were generally stable, but the consumption increment momentum weakened [34]. - In the later stage, the sales increment of new - energy vehicles in the third quarter may be weak. The new - energy consumption policy is gradually shifting to new - energy heavy - duty trucks, ships and other transportation fields, which may partially fill the demand gap caused by the weakening of passenger - vehicle consumption [34]. 3.3.7 Supply Contraction Dragged Down Inventory Reduction - As of May 30, 2025, the domestic refined - nickel social inventory was about 41,553 tons, a decrease of 3,048 tons compared with the end of April; the SHFE inventory was 22,299 tons, a decrease of 2,009 tons compared with the end of April; the LME nickel inventory was 201,462 tons, an increase of 144 tons compared with the end of April. The supply reduction was slightly greater than the inventory - reduction amount, and the demand side was relatively weaker. In June, the domestic supply is expected to further contract, but the export window remains open, and the fundamentals may continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot inventory may continue to be reduced due to the supply contraction [36]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, and the supply may remain at a high level [40]. - Demand: Steel - enterprise production control may suppress the production scale of stainless steel, and the expectation of rushing to export has not been fulfilled. The production schedule of ternary materials is expected to be stable [40]. - Cost: Although the nickel - ore approval quota in Indonesia has increased, the shortage situation has not been alleviated, and the ore price remains high [40]. - Macro: Tariff risks remain, but the "TACO" trading may quickly correct the situation [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The alumina market is in a stand - off between bulls and bears. With unstable bauxite policies in Guinea and reduced shipments during the rainy season, the expected decrease in imported ore and firm ore prices support alumina costs. However, the recovery of alumina enterprise profits has led to high复产 willingness, and nearly one million tons of production capacity is planned to resume production at the end of May. After reaching full production in June, the favorable supply - demand pattern may be broken, putting pressure on prices. Alumina is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 3000 mark [3][64]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply - side capacity is approaching the ceiling and is expected to remain stable. The proportion of molten aluminum has increased since May, potentially reducing the supply of aluminum ingots. On the consumption side, the photovoltaic rush - installation has ended, and subsequent photovoltaic consumption lacks momentum. The automotive sector will enter a seasonal off - season in summer, and the real estate sector remains weakly stable. However, supported by orders from UHV and power transmission projects and distribution network agreement inventories, the cable sector is expected to maintain growth. The overall aluminum market supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][65]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures rose in May and then slightly declined. At the beginning of the month, due to increased losses in alumina production capacity, expanded maintenance, and a shortage of spot supply, the price rebounded from a low of 2664 yuan/ton but was blocked around 3000 yuan/ton. Later, concerns about ore shortages pushed the price up to 3274 yuan/ton, but at the end of the month, the expected resumption of production led to a price decline, closing at 2962 yuan/ton, up 8.54%. The monthly structure changed from a slight Contango to a Back structure [9]. - Shanghai aluminum futures fell below 19500 yuan/ton at the beginning of May and then rebounded to above 20000 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of further positive factors, the price fluctuated narrowly above 20000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, closing at 20070 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. LME aluminum fluctuated after a brief decline, closing at 2392 US dollars/ton, down 5.75%. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio fluctuated between 8.02 and 8.22, with an import loss of around 1000 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - Trade tensions eased in May. After the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks, both sides agreed to adjust tariffs. The EU - US trade negotiations made progress, and the suspension of the "Liberation Day" tariff policy reduced concerns about the trade war. The Fed maintained the plan to reduce "balance - sheet reduction" [12]. - In terms of employment and inflation, the US added 139,000 non - farm jobs in May, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The core PCE inflation in April was in line with expectations. Economic data showed a slowdown in personal consumption growth, a decline in durable goods orders, and a contraction in the manufacturing PMI [13]. - In Europe, the economic sentiment and confidence indices mostly rebounded, GDP was slightly revised down, PPI declined in March, retail sales slowed down, and the PMI was revised up. The EU - US trade negotiation window was extended, and ECB officials supported interest rate cuts [14][16]. Domestic - China's economic data in April showed resilience. Industrial added value, social consumption, and fixed - asset investment maintained growth. The manufacturing PMI was 49.5% in May, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%. In terms of prices, CPI declined by 0.1% year - on - year in April, and PPI declined by 2.7% year - on - year. LPR and deposit rates were cut, with a larger cut in deposit rates [17]. 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - In May, domestic bauxite production tightened due to rainfall, safety drills, and environmental inspections. Bauxite prices remained stable. Imported bauxite reached record - high import volumes from January to April, but the situation in Guinea is unstable, and with the rainy season approaching, imported ore supply may decline. Domestic and imported bauxite supply is expected to be tight, and prices are expected to rise steadily [22][23]. Alumina Supply - In April 2025, China's alumina production was 719.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.46%. Supply was restricted in April due to maintenance and production cuts. As of May 27, the built - in production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating capacity was 85.65 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.34%. In May, new northern production capacity started output. In terms of imports and exports, exports were high in April but are expected to decrease in May, while imports are expected to increase [24][26]. Alumina Inventory and Spot - As of the end of May, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 127,000 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The exchange factory warehouse inventory was 1500 tons, also a decrease. The alumina spot premium was strong at the beginning and end of May and turned to a discount in the middle [27]. Alumina Cost and Profit - In April 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of the alumina industry was 3103.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106.41 yuan/ton from March. Raw material prices such as bauxite, caustic soda, and thermal coal declined, leading to a reduction in costs [28]. Alumina View - The alumina market is in a stand - off between bulls and bears. The unstable bauxite policy in Guinea and the rainy season support costs, but the high willingness of enterprises to resume production may break the favorable supply - demand pattern, and the price will continue to fluctuate around 3000 [29]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In April 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.6137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.64%. In May, capacity transfer, resumption, and new production continued, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Global (excluding China) electrolytic aluminum production decreased in April, and it is expected to be 2.405 million tons in May. In terms of imports and exports, imports increased in April, and exports also increased significantly [34][37]. Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - As of the end of May, the aluminum ingot inventory was 511,000 tons, the aluminum rod inventory was 128,300 tons, and the total social inventory decreased from the previous month. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory and LME inventory also decreased [38]. Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum gradually increased in April, and the LME premium converged [39]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In May, the theoretical average fully - taxed cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,535.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 86.46 yuan/ton from the previous month. The monthly theoretical profit was 3604.22 yuan/ton, an increase of 136.82 yuan/ton from the previous month [40]. 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - The aluminum processing industry entered the off - season in May, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders. Different sectors had different performances, with the cable sector maintaining growth. In June, production enthusiasm may be further suppressed [57]. Domestic Terminal Consumption - In the real estate sector, investment, new construction, and completion all declined in the first four months of 2025. In the new energy vehicle sector, sales continued to grow in April, but overseas trade protectionism may impact exports. In the power sector, grid investment increased in the first four months of 2025, and the aluminum cable industry is expected to maintain growth. In the photovoltaic sector, the installed capacity increased significantly in April, but subsequent consumption may lack momentum [58][60]. Aluminum Exports - In April 2025, China exported 520,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year flat and a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. From January to April, cumulative exports decreased by 5.7% year - on - year. The relaxation of tariff tensions in May is beneficial for exports, but the previous "rush - export" may limit subsequent growth [61]. 6. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas instability factors increase, while China's economy shows resilience, but external challenges also exist. For alumina, the market will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price will fluctuate around 3000. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is approaching the ceiling, and the overall supply - demand is expected to be weak, with the price continuing to fluctuate within a range [64][65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with a slight decline in late - May due to some steel mill maintenance. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 2.33 million tons to 2.2 million tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased from 3.19 million tons to 3.29 million tons. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions [3][14]. - Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand weakened, and plate demand was weak. Real estate investment was sluggish, and infrastructure was stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry was in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances weakened. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, with steel exports increasing by 8.2% year - on - year from January to April, but the new export order index in May shrank to 42% [3]. - In the next month, steel prices will face continuous pressure. Terminal real estate investment will continue to decline, and due to poor data on new housing starts and construction areas, combined with seasonal patterns, the apparent demand for construction materials will decline. The domestic manufacturing industry will continue to contract, the demand for automobiles and home appliances will slow down, and overseas tariff impacts will lead to weak demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, steel demand will face both internal and external pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the steel market was under pressure and declined. After the May Day holiday, steel prices rose and then fell, with weak supply and demand. The blast furnace operating rate remained high, and electric furnaces reduced production due to losses. The demand side was suppressed by the decline in real estate investment. On May 12, the Sino - US tariff negotiation reached an agreement, boosting market sentiment, but the steel price rebound was short - lived. In the second half of the month, steel prices broke through downward after narrow - range fluctuations. Weak reality (declining off - season demand) and weak expectations (weak real estate + export pressure), combined with high supply and cost loosening, drove steel prices down. In June, supply - demand contradictions may further accumulate [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel mills' production is stable, and supply pressure remains high - From January to April, China's pig iron, crude steel, and steel production were 288.85 million tons, 345.35 million tons, and 480.21 million tons respectively, with cumulative year - on - year increases of 0.8%, 0.4%, and 6%. In April, crude steel production decreased by 7.3% month - on - month due to blast furnace maintenance and weak demand. In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with blast furnace hot metal production remaining at around 2.44 million tons per day. The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was about 2.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.08%; the weekly output of five major steel products was 8.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The production structure was differentiated, with long - process better than short - process. Electric furnace losses increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.2% to 33.8% [14]. 2.2 Steel inventory reduction slowed down, and factory inventory increased - In May, steel inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The absolute inventory was at a historical low, and the differentiation between varieties intensified. As of June 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 million tons), the social inventory was 9.31 million tons (a decrease of 0.92 million tons), and the factory inventory was 4.33 million tons (an increase of 0.09 million tons). After the May delivery, the number of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil will gradually enter the accumulation cycle [19]. 2.3 Demand enters the off - season, and pressure increases - Construction steel demand is weak and entering the off - season. Real estate investment is sluggish, and infrastructure is stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry is in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances are weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, and subsequent exports are under pressure [22]. 2.4 External risks still exist - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. Real estate investment continued to decline, and housing steel - using indicators continued to decline significantly. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating. In May, manufacturing steel - using showed internal differentiation and weakening external demand. Steel exports faced short - term pressure relief but were still blocked in the medium term. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative steel imports were 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and cumulative exports were 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [28][31][46]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In May, steel production was stable at a high level. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions. - Demand side: Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand will weaken, and plate demand will be weak. Overall, steel demand will continue to face double pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [48][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil and fat sector showed a volatile trend with differentiation. Affected by the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakened significantly. Soybean oil was more obviously boosted by the improved sentiment in China - US trade but remained in a volatile range. For palm oil, both production and inventory in the producing areas are expected to increase. Export demand has improved compared to the previous period, supporting prices to some extent. The palm oil market saw frequent short - term capital inflows and outflows, with gradually narrowing fluctuations, and the weekly line closed slightly higher [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut time may be postponed. Attention should be paid to this week's China - US economic and trade meeting. The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices rose with fluctuations. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report and the follow - up negotiation progress of China - Canada trade. In general, palm oil may continue to fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 39 to close at 3,917 ringgit/ton, a 1.01% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 8,110 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 100 to close at 7,738 yuan/ton, a 1.31% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 208 to close at 9,140 yuan/ton, a 2.23% decrease; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.53 to close at 47.43 cents/pound, a 1.13% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 18.7 to close at 602.3 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.63% decrease [4][7]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 0.35% decrease; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao increased by 60 yuan/ton to 7,930 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 9,420 yuan/ton, a 1.46% decrease [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - MPOB monthly report preview: Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, a 3% increase from April; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8]. - According to SPPOMA data, in May 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 1.90%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.30%, and palm oil production increased by 3.53%. MPOA data shows that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from May 1 - 31 increased by 3.07%. UOB data shows that as of May 25, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 1 - 5% [8]. - Shipping survey agency SGS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 are expected to be 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from the same period last month. AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the same period last month [9]. - India's edible oil imports in May increased by 37% month - on - month to 1.18 million tons. Among them, sunflower oil imports increased by 2% to 184,000 tons, soybean oil imports increased by 10% to 398,000 tons, and palm oil imports soared by 87% to 600,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 14,750 tons, and that of palm oil was 903 tons [11]. Industry News - A commodity research institution predicts that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 19 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.5 - 19.5 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. Thailand's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.59 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.09 - 4.09 million tons [12][13]. - Global palm oil imports in the 2024/25 season are expected to be 41.6 million tons, a 1% decrease from last month's estimate and a 0.5% decrease from the 2023/24 season, mainly due to the downward adjustment of India's import estimate [13]. - Indonesia exported 6.41 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to April this year, a 5.37% decrease from the same period last year. However, due to rising prices, the export value of palm oil in the first four months reached $7.05 billion, a 20% increase from the same period last year [14]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the inventory and production trends of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD, My Agri - data, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract rose 15.75 to close at 1058 cents per bushel, a 1.51% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 42 to close at 3010 yuan per ton, a 1.42% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2820 yuan per ton, a 2.08% decrease; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 29 to close at 2608 yuan per ton, a 1.1% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2460 yuan per ton, a 1.2% decrease [4]. - After the China - US presidential call, trade concerns eased, the market atmosphere improved, and US soybeans closed higher with weekly fluctuations. The US soybean sowing season is nearing its end and started well. Domestic oil mills' operating rates are at a high level, and soybeans and soybean meal are in an inventory - building rhythm, with supply becoming more abundant and spot prices under slight downward pressure. Boosted by trade sentiment, US soybeans rose. Coupled with the decline in Brazilian farmers' selling enthusiasm and the increase in premiums, the Dalian soybean meal contract fluctuated upwards. There is an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, and the rapeseed sector showed weakness due to sentiment, with rapeseed meal closing lower with fluctuations [4][7]. - The US soybean crop condition report shows a good start. The weather forecast indicates that overall precipitation in the production areas is higher than normal, but the central - western production areas are relatively dry, which may put pressure on regional crop growth. Continued attention should be paid to weather changes. After the China - US presidential call, trade sentiment improved, and further negotiation progress should be monitored. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are continuously increasing, supply is becoming more abundant, and spot prices are still under pressure, limiting the upward range of the futures market. The far - month contracts are still strongly supported, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate slightly upwards in the short term. In addition, attention should be paid to the evolution of China - Canada trade relations and its potential impact on the rapeseed sector [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on June 6 was 1058.00 cents per bushel, up 15.75 (1.51%) from May 30. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 447.00 dollars per ton, up 6.00 (1.36%); the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 457.00 dollars per ton, up 1.00 (0.22%). The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market was 81.71 yuan per ton, down 13.59 from the previous period. The DCE soybean meal 09 contract was 3010.00 yuan per ton, up 42 (1.42%); the CZCE rapeseed meal 09 contract was 2608.00 yuan per ton, down 29 (1.1%). The spot price of soybean meal in East China was 2840.00 yuan per ton, down 20 (0.70%); in South China, it was 2820.00 yuan per ton, down 60 (2.08%). The spot - futures price difference in South China was - 190.00 yuan per ton, down 102 from the previous period [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean sowing progress as of June 1, 2025, was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of May 27, about 17% of the planting areas were affected by drought. The weekly export inspection volume as of May 29 was 26.83 tons, in line with expectations. The current - market - year export net sales increased by 19.4 tons. The cumulative export sales volume in the 2024/2025 season was 4865 tons, with a sales progress of 96.6%. The US soybean crushing volume in April was 607 million short tons, and the cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to April 2025 was 4924 million short tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.94%. The crushing profit as of May 30 was 2.11 dollars per bushel, down 1% from the previous week [8][9]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybeans**: As of May 31, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 99.8%. The estimated soybean export volume in June was 1255 tons, lower than last year's 1383 tons. As of June 4, the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 88.7%, and the estimated 2024/2025 harvest was about 5000 tons [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 30, the inventory of major oil mills' soybeans was 582.88 tons, up 22.25 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 29.8 tons, up 9.11 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 369.29 tons, up 33.89 tons. The national port soybean inventory was 705.4 tons, up 30.1 tons. As of June 6, the weekly average daily trading volume of national soybean meal was 11.94 tons (9.59 tons for spot and 2.35 tons for forward contracts), the average daily pick - up volume was 20.12 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 224.46 tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 6.31 days [10][11]. Industry News - Strategic Grains significantly revised down the EU's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast to 1860 tons, lower than the April forecast of 1900 tons but about 11% higher than the 2024/2025 production. It also revised down the EU's 2025/26 sunflower seed and soybean production forecasts [12]. - The IMEA in Brazil's Mato Grosso state maintained its 2025/26 soybean planting area forecast at 1300.82 million hectares, up 1.67% from the previous year; the yield per unit area was expected to be 60.45 bags per hectare, down 8.81%; the production was expected to be 4718.44 tons, down 7.29% [13]. - As of June 1, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 263 tons, down from 324 tons last year; soybean imports were 1294 tons, up from 1213 tons; soybean meal imports were 1768 tons, up from 1408 tons; rapeseed imports were 640 tons, up from 519 tons [13]. - As of May 28, Argentine farmers sold 90.89 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 1787.65 tons. They also sold 2.71 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 12.84 tons [14]. - A commodity research institution maintained its 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production forecast at 325 tons. The weather conditions in Ukraine have been mixed in the past two weeks, with the western region being cool and wet and the eastern region being warm and dry [15]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina indicated that the current - year soybean yield per unit area is developing better than expected, and the estimated 2024/25 soybean harvest is about 5000 tons and 4900 tons of corn [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, management fund CBOT net position, soybean meal futures and spot price trends, US soybean production area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvest progress, US soybean export - related data, US oil mill crushing profit, soybean meal trading and pick - up volume, and port and oil mill inventory data [16][17][18][21][35][36][40][43][47][49][53][54][55].

李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The call between Chinese and US leaders briefly boosted market risk appetite, but the intensifying internal division in the US may lead to more market volatility in June. Attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data to assess the impact of tariff policies on the US economy [2]. - In the domestic market, the A - share risk appetite continued to rise, the bond market weakened, and the domestic policy may be in a vacuum period in June with the economy in a weak recovery [3]. - The silver price is expected to continue its catch - up trend, the copper price is expected to oscillate upward, the aluminum price will remain under pressure and oscillate, the alumina price will continue to oscillate, the zinc price will oscillate and converge, the lead price will have a narrow - range oscillation, the tin price will oscillate strongly, the industrial silicon price will oscillate weakly at a low level, the lithium carbonate price difference has a correction expectation, the nickel price will oscillate, the oil price may rebound in the short - term but has a long - term downward pressure, the steel price will oscillate, the iron ore price will oscillate, the soybean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate strongly, and the palm oil price will oscillate [4][7][9][11][12][13][15][17][18][22][23][24][26][28][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The call between Chinese and US leaders focused on trade and key mineral disputes, and reached a consensus on continued consultations. The internal division in the US intensified, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected [2]. - Domestic: The A - share risk appetite continued to rise, the bond market weakened, and the central bank announced a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: The gold futures price slightly declined due to the signal of eased trade tensions from the Sino - US leaders' call [4]. - Silver: The international silver price rose strongly by 3.3%, breaking through the strong resistance level of $35 per ounce. It has a strong catch - up demand and the catch - up logic is expected to continue [4][6]. 3.3 Base Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract continued to oscillate strongly, and the London copper steadily rose. The European Central Bank cut interest rates, and the supply - side disturbances continued to drive the copper price upward [7][8]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline, but the consumption side was weak. The aluminum price remained under pressure and oscillated [9][10]. - Alumina: The alumina futures main contract fell by 2.9%. The market was both bullish and bearish, and the price continued to oscillate [11]. - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated narrowly. The downstream consumption weakened marginally, and the inventory increased slightly. The zinc price oscillated and converged [12]. - Lead: The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated horizontally. The inventory continued to increase, and the lead price had a narrow - range oscillation with insufficient one - way driving force [13]. - Tin: The Shanghai tin main contract rose after a night - session gap - up. The London tin continued to rise, driving the Shanghai tin to break through the moving - average pressure. The tin price was expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract continued to fall. The supply - side rebound was limited, and the demand was weak. The price oscillated weakly at a low level [16][17]. 3.4 Energy Metals - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated, and the spot price fell. The price difference had a correction expectation, and the far - month short positions needed to be cautious [18][19]. - Nickel: The nickel price oscillated. The ore shortage situation was expected to improve, and the short - term nickel price would oscillate [21][22]. 3.5 Energy - Crude Oil: The crude oil price was temporarily stable. The geopolitical situation was tense, and the OPEC + was expected to increase production in July and August. The oil price may rebound in the short - term but had a long - term downward pressure [23]. 3.6 Steel - Steel: The steel futures rebounded. The steel supply and demand were both weak, and the steel price was expected to oscillate [24][25]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The market sentiment was boosted by the Sino - US leaders' call, and the iron ore price was expected to oscillate [26]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose. The market sentiment improved, and the short - term prices were expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil price oscillated. The MPOA data showed a moderate increase in the Malaysian palm oil production, and the short - term price was expected to oscillate [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the cold US data and Trump's call for a rate cut have led to market speculation on rate - cut expectations. In the US, the May ISM services PMI fell below the boom - bust line, the ADP employment data was far below expectations, and the Fed's Beige Book showed a slight weakening of economic activity. Domestically, the A - share market rebounded with increased trading volume, and the bond market had a V - shaped rebound. The domestic economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in Q2, and domestic policies are waiting for the July meeting window [2][3]. - Different commodities have different price trends. Gold prices rebounded due to weak US data; copper prices are expected to continue strong oscillations; aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate; alumina prices are expected to oscillate favorably; zinc prices are in a stalemate; lead prices are in a stable consolidation; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom; lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure; nickel prices are expected to oscillate; oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly; steel prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate; and agricultural product prices such as soybean meal and palm oil are expected to oscillate [3][6][8][11][12][14][15][16][18][21][23][24][26][27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The May ISM services PMI in the US was 49.9, falling below the boom - bust line. The ADP employment data in May was only 3.7 million, far lower than the expected 11 million. The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the dollar index fell to 98.7, with the 10Y US Treasury yield dropping to 4.36%. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff negotiations, tax - cut bills, and the non - farm payroll report on Friday [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rebounded with the trading volume of the two markets rising to 1.16 trillion. The bond market had a V - shaped rebound, with the 10Y and 30Y yields at 1.67% and 1.89% respectively. The domestic economy is expected to continue a weak recovery in Q2, and domestic policies are waiting for the July meeting window [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.60% to $3397.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $34.66 per ounce. Weak US data and geopolitical and economic uncertainties have led investors to turn to gold as a safe - haven asset [3]. 3.3 Copper - Macro: The Fed's Beige Book showed a slight decline in US economic activity, and the ADP employment data was far lower than expected, with the dollar index weakening and boosting copper prices. - Industry: First Quantum will spend about $20 million per month to maintain its Cobre Panama copper mine. The mine has 121,000 tons of concentrates, but some have deteriorated. The president is interested in renegotiating the mine's operation. LME copper inventories fell to 141,000 tons. Copper prices are expected to continue strong oscillations [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - Macro: The weak US economic data led to a decline in the US dollar index and a rebound in metal prices. - Fundamentals: The proportion of molten aluminum may increase, and the supply of aluminum ingots may decline. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption is expected to decline. Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate [8][9][10]. 3.5 Alumina - Guinea's mine disruptions due to force majeure have led to a technical vacation, which is beneficial for the rebound of alumina prices. The current supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the spot is slightly tight. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate favorably [11]. 3.6 Zinc - The spot premium of zinc remains high, but downstream demand is weak. The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for Q3 2025. A Canadian mine was temporarily closed due to wildfires. The supply is expected to recover strongly in June and July, but the current spot arrival is insufficient. Zinc prices are in a stalemate, with short - term sideways movement and medium - to - long - term downward pressure [12][13]. 3.7 Lead - The downstream demand for lead is weak after the holiday, and the supply pressure has increased marginally. The support at around 16,500 yuan for lead prices is effective, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to maintain a consolidation trend [14]. 3.8 Tin - Downstream restocking has led to a significant decline in inventories, supporting the rebound of tin prices. However, the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient, and the consumption side is weak. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with attention paid to the pressure near the moving average [15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The supply rebound of industrial silicon is limited, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has risen slightly, and the spot market is still in a downward trend. Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue to explore the bottom [16][17]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated strongly, while the spot price fell. The new production capacity launch is slowing down. Technically, there is no sign of active bullish pulling. The spot price is weak, and the fundamentals lack factors to boost prices. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rallies [18][19][20]. 3.11 Nickel - The weak US economic data may cause economic expectations to weaken. The supply of nickel ore may recover, and some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have cut production. However, stainless - steel mills have reduced production, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate [21][22]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The US - Iran peace talks have made new progress, and Saudi Arabia wants to increase production significantly, but there are differences within OPEC +. The short - term bearish sentiment is strong, and oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures rebounded, but the real - estate market dragged down demand, and the seasonal demand for rebar weakened. The steel consumption decreased during the college entrance examination. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate [24][25]. 3.14 Iron Ore - The spot trading volume of iron ore increased, and the supply was relatively loose. However, steel mills' off - season shutdowns and maintenance increased, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [26]. 3.15 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the news of the easing of China - Canada trade relations has affected the rapeseed market. The domestic spot price is under pressure, and the soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate [27]. 3.16 Palm Oil - The sharp decline in rapeseed oil prices has dragged down the entire oil and fat sector. The expected increase in palm oil production and inventory has put pressure on prices. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [28][29].

Report Title - Macro Weekly Report: Overseas Risk-Aversion Sentiment Intensifies, Domestic Weak Recovery Continues [1] Core Views - Overseas, there are signs of partial recovery in the US "soft data", with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising in May and inflation expectations falling from their highs. However, the manufacturing sector remains sluggish due to tariff disruptions, with the May ISM Manufacturing PMI contracting for three consecutive months, weaker than expected, and the import sub-index hitting a 16-year low, while the price sub-index remains high. Overall, the US economic fundamentals remain resilient, and the GDPNow model has revised up its Q2 economic growth forecast to 4.6%. This week, attention is focused on the May non-farm payroll report and the services PMI. Last week, the US dollar index maintained a weak oscillation, and the gold price returned to a high level, reflecting three risks: internal conflicts in the US weakening its sovereign credit, setbacks in the US tariff negotiations with other countries, and renewed conflicts in war-torn countries. In June, attention is on the progress of Trump's tax cut bill in the Senate and the trade court's ruling on tariffs [2]. - Domestically, the manufacturing sector's sentiment improved slightly in May, with both supply and demand improving. The reduction in Sino-US tariffs has led to a marginal recovery in production driven by pre-export activities, and new orders have significantly improved due to external demand. However, price pressures remain, and the signs of companies "trading price for volume" and actively reducing inventory continue. In addition, the sentiment in the service and construction sectors remains lower than in previous years, indicating that domestic demand is still the main drag in the second quarter, and more policy support is urgently needed in the context of weak inflation. In June, attention is on the possibility of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents [3] Section Summaries Overseas Macro - US May Manufacturing PMI Weakens: The May ISM Manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the "rush to import" may have ended. The May ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 48.7, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. New orders continued to shrink, external demand was under pressure, costs were high, and employment was weak. The import sub-index hit a 16-year low, suggesting that the peak of "rush to import" may have passed under tariff disruptions. The trade surplus has led the GDPNow to revise up the Q2 economic growth rate to 4.6%. Meanwhile, the final value of the US May Markit Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, slightly lower than the expected 52.3 and the initial value of 52.3, still in the expansion range. The difference between the two may be due to the ISM PMI's high dependence on external demand, supply chains, and large manufacturers, making it more sensitive to policy shocks and external uncertainties [5]. - Consumer Confidence Recovers, Inflation Expectations Fall from Highs: After the easing of tariff negotiations, the US "soft data" has improved. The final value of the US May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 52.2, higher than the expected 51.0 and the initial value of 50.8. With the significant reduction in Sino-US tariffs, consumer confidence has recovered, but the absolute level remains at a historical low, indicating that consumers are still highly concerned about the future economy. The final value of the one-year inflation expectation in May was 6.6%, lower than the expected 7.1% and the initial value of 7.3%; the final value of the 5 - 10-year inflation expectation was 4.2%, lower than the expected 4.5% and the initial value of 4.6%, ending four months of sharp increases [7]. Domestic Macro - China's May Manufacturing Sentiment Improves as Expected: The May Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.5, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 49.0. There were differences among enterprises of different sizes, with large enterprises rising 1.5 to 50.7, entering the expansion range, while medium and small enterprises remained in the contraction range. Both supply and demand improved, with external demand making a prominent contribution. Production rose 0.9 to 50.7, returning to the expansion range; new orders rose 0.6 to 49.8, approaching the boom-bust line; new export orders rose significantly by 2.8 to 47.5, showing obvious marginal improvement. Overall, with the phased easing of Sino-US tariff frictions, enterprises have seized the window period to accelerate production, and the release of export orders has driven the recovery of the production side. Prices were weak, and enterprises actively reduced inventory. The raw material inventory rose to 47.4, and the finished product inventory fell 0.8 to 46.5. In terms of prices, the purchase price of raw materials in April fell 0.1 to 46.9, and the ex-factory price fell 0.1 to 44.7, indicating that the signs of companies "trading price for volume" and actively reducing inventory continue [10]. - Construction and Service Sectors Remain Sluggish, Domestic Demand Recovery is Weak: In the non-manufacturing sector, the May Service PMI was 50.2, slightly higher than the previous value of 50.1 but lower than the level of previous years. Driven by the May Day holiday, tourism, travel, and catering consumption were active, and the sentiment in the transportation and accommodation industries rose to the expansion range; high - growth industries such as postal, communication, and the Internet continued to grow steadily. The Construction PMI was 51.0, lower than the previous value of 51.9 and at the lowest level in the same period over the years, with real estate construction remaining sluggish [11]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The performance of equity markets varied. In the A-share market, the Wind All - A Index was at 5074.29, with a weekly decline of -0.02%, a monthly increase of 2.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.04%. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3347.49, with a weekly decline of -0.03%, a monthly increase of 2.09%, and a year - to - date decline of -0.13%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index was at 23289.77, with a weekly decline of -1.32%, a monthly increase of 5.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.44%. Overseas, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 42270.07, with a weekly increase of 1.60%, a monthly increase of 3.94%, and a year - to - date decline of -0.64% [19]. - Bonds: In the domestic bond market, the 1 - year Treasury yield was 1.46%, with a weekly increase of 1.51 basis points, a monthly increase of 0.08 basis points, and a year - to - date increase of 35.30 basis points. In the overseas bond market, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.89%, with a weekly decline of 11.00 basis points, a monthly increase of 29.00 basis points, and a year - to - date decline of 36.00 basis points [22]. - Commodities: The Nanhua Commodity Index was at 2349.69, with a weekly decline of -1.62%, a monthly decline of -2.40%, and a year - to - date decline of -5.88%. The CRB Commodity Index was at 290.43, with a weekly decline of -2.10%, a monthly increase of 0.57%, and a year - to - date decline of -2.12%. COMEX Gold was at 3313.10, with a weekly decline of -1.57%, a monthly decline of -0.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 25.45% [23]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1953, with a weekly increase of 0.08%, a monthly decline of -0.93%, and a year - to - date decline of -1.42%. The US dollar index was at 99.4393, with a weekly increase of 0.32%, a monthly decline of -0.20%, and a year - to - date decline of -8.34% [26]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report includes data on the congestion index of 100 cities, the subway passenger volume of 23 cities, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 cities, the second - hand housing transaction area of 12 cities, passenger car sales, and the apparent consumption of rebar [28]. - Overseas: The report includes data on the Redbook commercial retail sales and the number of unemployment benefit claims in the US [32]. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events for this week, including China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, the eurozone's May CPI annual and monthly rates, the US's May ADP employment data, and the US's May ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI [39].