1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels. Gold and silver prices reached new highs during the week. After CME changed the margin of precious metal futures contracts from fixed to proportion - floating on the 14th, COMEX silver prices continued to rise strongly, hitting a record high of $93.7 per ounce. Gold and platinum prices fluctuated, and palladium prices declined slightly due to the temporary elimination of tariff risks [2][5]. - On January 15, the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum for the time being. Trump's criminal investigation against Fed Chairman Powell led to political backlash, and Kevin Warsh became the top candidate for the next Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions persisted, such as the US threatening to impose tariffs to seize Greenland and the tense situation in Iran [2][6]. - Recent US employment and inflation data were better than expected, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27 - 28 meeting and cut rates at least twice by 25 basis points this year. With the tariff policy becoming clearer, metals not subject to high - tariff may flow out of the US market, but the market still anticipates long - term supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and strategic hoarding, so the popularity of precious metals is expected to remain high, with high price volatility risks [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1032.32 | 25.84 | 2.57 | 87298 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 1031.09 | 28.17 | 2.81 | 40854 | 188966 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4601.10 | 82.70 | 1.83 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 22483 | 3193 | 16.55 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 22641 | 3882 | 20.69 | 538580 | 3156550 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 89.95 | 10.16 | 12.73 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 610.05 | 10.25 | 1.71 | 24678 | 12562 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 602.46 | 9.64 | 1.63 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2342.90 | 9.64 | 2.86 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 469.35 | 9.64 | - 5.95 | 12825 | 12562 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1846.50 | 9.64 | - 1.47 | | | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Price trends: Precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels last week. Gold and silver hit new highs, while palladium declined slightly due to tariff risk elimination [2][5]. - Policy: The Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum after a national security review, and will seek bilateral negotiations and consider setting a price floor [5]. - Political situation: Trump's criminal investigation against Powell led to criticism from former US economic and financial officials. Kevin Warsh became the most likely candidate for the next Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions included the US threatening to impose tariffs on 8 European countries for Greenland and the tense situation in Iran [2][6]. - Economic data: US employment and inflation data were better than expected, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January and cut rates at least twice this year [2][6][8]. - Future outlook: With the tariff policy becoming clearer, metals not subject to high - tariff may flow out of the US market, but the market still anticipates long - term supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and strategic hoarding. The popularity of precious metals is expected to remain high, but high price volatility risks need to be noted. This week, attention should be paid to the initial value of the US Q4 GDP and the November PCE data [2][8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US core inflation slowed down. In December, the core CPI growth rate was lower than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the same as the lowest level in the past five years, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations [8]. - In November last year, the US PPI and core PPI both increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Rising energy costs were the main driver of PPI growth [8]. - In November last year, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth rate since July last year. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, better than the market expectation of 0.4%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption [8]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four - week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two - year low [9]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that in 8 of the 12 Fed districts, overall economic activity increased slightly to moderately, 3 reported no change, and 1 reported a slight decline. Compared with the previous three reporting cycles, the situation improved. Most banks reported a slight to moderate increase in consumer spending during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season [9]. - On January 12, CME announced that it would change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures from a fixed - dollar amount to a certain percentage of the contract's nominal value. Under the new framework, the gold margin will be set at 5%, and the silver margin will rise to 9%. Platinum and palladium will also use a similar percentage calculation. The adjustment took effect after the close on January 13 [9]. - The governor of the Polish central bank said that the bank plans to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons by the end of the year [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - Precious metal ETF holdings: The total gold ETF holdings on January 16, 2026, were 1085.67 tons, an increase of 21.11 tons compared with the previous week, 33.13 tons compared with the previous month, and 206.55 tons compared with the previous year. The iShare silver holdings on January 16, 2026, were 16073.06 tons, a decrease of 235.42 tons compared with the previous week, an increase of 54.77 tons compared with the previous month, and an increase of 1662.34 tons compared with the previous year [12]. - Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and other data of precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as their relationships with the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and other factors [13][20][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The market has digested the impact of Trump's tariff increase on 8 European countries, and the risk - aversion sentiment has slightly recovered. Consumption feedback is negative, with the start - up of primary enterprises under pressure and some planning to have early holidays. The spot premium has declined, while refineries are resuming production and zinc ingot exports are closed, leading to an increase in supply and an expected rise in inventory. However, in the short term, the market is dominated by funds, and the market sentiment switches rapidly, amplifying the zinc price fluctuations. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [3][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,970 yuan/ton to 24,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 780 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3149 dollars/ton to 3207.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 58.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.61 to 7.72. The SHFE inventory increased by 2459 tons to 76311 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 106,525 tons, and the social inventory decreased slightly from 11.85 to 11.84 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 100 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - The main contract of SHFE zinc, ZN2603, first rose and then fell last week, closing at 24750 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 3.25%. LME zinc reached a new high of 3355 dollars/ton and then adjusted, closing at 3209 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 1.91%. In the spot market, the supply increased, downstream purchases weakened, the spot premium continued to decline, and the trading was mainly between traders. As of January 16th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 925 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 2459 tons, and the social inventory was 11.84 million tons [5][6]. Macro - economic Situation - In the US, the November retail sales monthly rate reached a new high since July, the December core inflation was lower than expected, the employment market was strong, and the 1 - month interest rate cut probability remained low. Trump's plan to impose a 10% tariff on 8 European countries dragged down market risk appetite. In China, the new social financing in December was better than expected, the central bank signaled interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the export and import in December increased year - on - year [7][8][9]. Industry News - On January 16th, 2026, the average domestic and foreign zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat, and the import ore processing fee decreased by 4.25 dollars/ton. Starting from April 14th, 2026, LME will not accept certain brand warehouse receipts for registration. A Canadian mining company's mine in Peru is progressing smoothly in resuming production, aiming for commercial production in the third quarter of 2026. Central Asia Metals PLC released its 2025 operation update and set its 2026 production targets [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank has launched a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. This includes measures such as lowering the rediscount and relending rates by 0.25 percentage points, increasing the relending quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan, setting up a 1 - trillion - yuan relending quota for private enterprises, expanding the support scope of carbon emission reduction tools, and reducing the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%. The central bank also indicates that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1][4][10]. - Last week's industrial data was average. Due to the restoration of steel mill profits, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly month - on - month, and the apparent demand rebounded. However, due to the off - season suppression, the weak pattern before the Spring Festival remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm of steel products. With the recent national cooling, demand has further declined, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3163 | 19 | 0.60 | 5178836 | 2320984 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3315 | 21 | 0.64 | 2077198 | 1448345 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 812.0 | - 2.5 | - 0.31 | 1331049 | 652402 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1171.0 | - 24.5 | - 2.05 | 6677833 | 625637 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1717.0 | - 31.0 | - 1.77 | 116309 | 38799 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rose, with limited intra - week drivers and disorderly price fluctuations. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2970 (- 10) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3300 (+ 10) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3300 (+ 30) yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, the central bank launched a "combination punch" for economic support, and the Ministry of Finance and two other departments announced a personal income tax refund policy for homebuyers from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [4]. - In the industrial aspect, last week, rebar production was 1.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons; apparent demand was 1.9 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 3.08 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory situation and other data are as described in the report [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, including optimizing loan discount policies [6][7]. - The National Commerce Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, the national commerce system should focus on eight aspects of work, including optimizing the implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy [10]. - The Ministry of Finance and two other departments announced a personal income tax refund policy for homebuyers from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [10]. - The central bank launched a "combination punch" for economic support [10]. - The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a yellow cold wave warning, indicating significant temperature drops in certain regions from January 19 to 21 [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes various charts such as the trend of rebar futures and spreads, hot - rolled coil futures and spreads, rebar basis, hot - rolled coil basis, rebar and hot - rolled coil spot price differentials, steel mill profit trends, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [8][11][13] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fell from their highs. The main reasons were that the Trump administration might have decided not to impose tariffs on rare earths, lithium, and key mineral resources, NVIDIA's financial report suggested that the previous estimate of copper usage in AI data centers might be overestimated, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and overseas funds taking profits at high levels, which put short - term pressure on the metal market. However, in the medium term, the long - bull logic of the precious metal market provides a solid foundation for the valuation increase of copper prices [2][7]. - In the overall situation, against the backdrop of tariff easing and the market gradually pricing in two expected interest rate cuts this year, some overseas funds are taking profits from long positions. The NVIDIA report's potential overestimation of AI data - center copper usage and the rebound of the US dollar index restrict the upward movement of metals. Fundamentally, overseas mine disruptions continue, domestic refined copper supply is narrowing marginally, traditional industries' consumption drag is obvious, and domestic inventories are continuously increasing. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level range in the short term [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From January 9th to January 16th, LME copper decreased from $12,965.50/ton to $12,808.50/ton, a decline of $157.00/ton or - 1.21%; COMEX copper dropped from 589.05 cents/pound to 584.85 cents/pound, a decrease of 4.2 cents/pound or - 0.71%; SHFE copper fell from 101,410 yuan/ton to 100,770 yuan/ton, a decline of 640 yuan/ton or - 0.63%; international copper decreased from 90,150 yuan/ton to 89,650 yuan/ton, a decline of 500 yuan/ton or - 0.55%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.82 to 7.87, and the LME spot premium increased by 46.69% from $41.94/ton to $61.52/ton, while the Shanghai spot premium decreased from - 45 yuan/ton to - 125 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 16th, the total global visible inventory exceeded one million tons, reaching 1,005,786 tons, an increase of 7.10% compared to January 9th. LME inventory increased by 4,600 tons to 143,575 tons (a 3.31% increase), COMEX inventory rose by 24,915 short tons to 542,914 short tons (a 4.81% increase), SHFE inventory increased by 32,972 tons to 213,497 tons (an 18.26% increase), and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 4,200 tons to 105,800 tons (a 4.13% increase) [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economy has expanded moderately recently, inflation pressure has eased, and employment is generally stable. After the tariffs were implemented, enterprises' outlook on future economic activities has turned optimistic. The US consumer data is positive, and the inflation data has increased the probability of an interest - rate cut in April to over 40%. Trump's actions have increased market risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the copper - price center. In China, the State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, mainly for the construction of a new power system and related industrial - chain upgrades [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The global mine - end supply growth rate in 2026 will be less than 1.5% due to mine disruptions. Domestic refined - copper supply is expected to decline further. The demand from the power grid construction is large but the progress is slow, white - goods consumption is declining, and real - estate completion is lackluster. However, new industries such as new - energy vehicles, wind and solar power, and AI data centers are providing new consumption increments [9]. 3.3 Industry News - First Quantum Minerals welcomes Panama's plan to allow the Cobre Panama copper mine to process inventory ore. The government plans to make a formal decision on the mine's future development by June this year [11]. - Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Congo achieved its 2025 production target. It delivered 388,838 tons of copper concentrate, and the company reaffirmed its 2026 copper - production forecast of 380,000 - 420,000 tons [12]. - On January 15th, Luoyang Molybdenum released its 2025 performance forecast. Its annual net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 20 billion and 20.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 47.80% - 53.71%. The company's copper production in 2025 reached 741,149 tons [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Exchange and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled - warrant ratio, COMEX inventory and cancelled - warrant ratio, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, Shanghai Non - ferrous copper spot premium, LME copper premium, SHFE copper inter - month spread, spot premium and Yangshan copper premium, copper domestic - foreign price ratio, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, COMEX copper non - commercial net - long position ratio, and LME copper investment - fund net - position change [15][19][22][23][27][29][31][35][37][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The macro - environment was positive, with loose monetary expectations at home and abroad and geopolitical conflicts increasing the premium of resource - end products, which led to a general rise in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [4] - Fundamentally, the supply of domestic lead ore raw materials remained tight, and the processing fee was at a low level. In the electrolytic lead sector, there were both production cuts and restarts in January, with a slight expected increase in production. In the recycled lead sector, raw material constraints still existed, and the production was expected to decline slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, consumption expectations were under pressure, and social inventories were expected to rise slowly. [4] - Overall, the macro - environment was positive, and non - ferrous metals rotated up. The supply - demand situation was weak on both sides, and the lead price was expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector. However, due to the strong cost support, the downside space of the lead price was limited. [4][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,355 yuan/ton to 17,475 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2046.5 dollars/ton to 2037.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.48 to 8.58, an increase of 0.10. [5] - The SHFE inventory increased from 30,111 tons to 37,044 tons, an increase of 6,933 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 222,725 tons to 206,350 tons, a decrease of 16,375 tons; the social inventory increased from 1.96 million tons to 3.25 million tons, an increase of 1.29 million tons; the spot premium decreased from - 130 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. [5] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated widely at a high level, closing at 17,475 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.69%. LME lead first declined and then rose, closing at 2038 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.42%. [6] - In the spot market, the supply was abundant, and the demand was weak, resulting in sluggish trading. The inventory of recycled lead smelters was high, and some lead smelting enterprises would limit production due to smog warnings, which was expected to ease the shipping pressure of holders. [6] Industry News - On January 16, 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining unchanged from the previous week. [9] - Starting from April 14, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) will no longer accept the warehousing registration of certain zinc and lead brands. [9] - On January 16, 2026, Fuyang, Anhui issued an orange warning, and local recycled lead smelters would reduce production by 50%. [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the prices of SHFE and LME lead, the Shanghai - London ratio, inventory situations, lead price spreads, waste battery prices, enterprise profits, production volumes, and social inventories, which help to comprehensively analyze the lead market. [10][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][29][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply is generally loose with the arrival of the first shipment of Simandou iron ore in China; overseas shipments declined last week, but recent concentrated arrivals of iron ore have led to a continuous increase in port inventories. On the demand side, last week's hot metal production declined, iron ore daily consumption decreased, and in - plant inventories increased. Overall, supply is stronger than demand, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of steel mills' restocking before the Spring Festival [1][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3163 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 0.60% with a total trading volume of 5178836 lots and a total open interest of 2320984 lots - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3315 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 0.64% with a total trading volume of 2077198 lots and a total open interest of 1448345 lots - DCE iron ore closed at 812.0 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan or - 0.31% with a total trading volume of 1331049 lots and a total open interest of 652402 lots - DCE coking coal closed at 1171.0 yuan/ton, down 24.5 yuan or - 2.05% with a total trading volume of 6677833 lots and a total open interest of 625637 lots - DCE coke closed at 1717.0 yuan/ton, down 31.0 yuan or - 1.77% with a total trading volume of 116309 lots and a total open interest of 38799 lots [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand side**: Last week, hot metal production declined, iron ore daily consumption decreased, and in - plant inventories increased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 228.01 tons, a decrease of 1.49 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3.53 tons from the same period last year - **Supply side**: Overseas shipments declined last week, but recent concentrated arrivals of iron ore have led to a continuous increase in port inventories. On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore arrived at China Baowu's Majishan Port. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 172.887 million tons, an increase of 2.4426 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 194,000 tons [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand, including optimizing loan discount policies for service - sector business entities and personal consumption loans, implementing loan discount policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, establishing a special guarantee plan for private investment, and optimizing the fiscal discount policy for equipment renewal loans - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced that from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a housing in the market within one year after the sale of their current housing will be eligible for a tax refund on the individual income tax paid for the sale of their current housing - The central bank launched a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the re - loan and re - discount rates by 0.25 percentage points, merging the use of re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses with re - discount quotas, increasing the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, setting up a 1 - trillion - yuan re - loan for private enterprises in the total quota, expanding the support scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30%. The central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year - According to China Baowu, the first shipment of Simandou iron ore arrived at China Baowu's Majishan Port. On January 17, the first shipment of nearly 200,000 tons of Simandou iron ore successfully arrived at a Chinese port [10] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the profitability rate of steel mills across the country, daily average pig iron production, global iron ore shipments, port inventories, and domestic mine iron ore production from 2022 to 2026 [8][11][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 6.5 to close at 1056.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.61%; the May bean meal contract fell 59 to 2727 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.12%; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 40 to 3100 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.27%; the May rapeseed meal contract declined 83 to 2255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.55%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2450 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.39% [4][7]. - The external market was under pressure and oscillated. The overall bearishness of the January USDA report, the strengthening of the South American bumper harvest expectation, the ongoing Brazilian harvest, and the significant increase in the January export supply put pressure on the market. Support factors included the accelerated pace of US soybean export sales, China's achievement of the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, the continued increase in US soybean crushing in December, and the expected boost from US biodiesel policies. Domestically, the overall price of meal products declined. The auction of imported soybeans was fully sold, alleviating the expectation of tight supply. Additionally, the trading volume of domestic long - term basis contracts increased, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment continued. The easing of China - Canada trade relations led to expectations of increased long - term rapeseed meal supply [4][8]. - After the release of the USDA report, the reduction in US soybean exports and the increase in Brazilian production had an overall bearish impact. China's goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year was basically achieved, and the full sale of imported soybean auctions in China alleviated the expectation of short - term supply tightness. The inventories of soybeans and bean meal at oil mills were at a high level compared to the same period. As the subsequent arrivals decreased month - on - month, the inventory reduction pace might accelerate. The pre - holiday stocking demand continued, and the trading volume of bean meal increased significantly last week. It is expected that the Dalian bean meal will oscillate weakly in the short term [4][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | January 16th | January 9th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1056.25 | 1062.75 | - 6.50 | - 0.61% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 448.00 | 450.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.44% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 473.00 | 475.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.42% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 37.87 | 49.51 | - 11.65 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2727.00 | 2786.00 | - 59.00 | - 2.12% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2255.00 | 2338.00 | - 83.00 | - 3.55% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 472.00 | 448.00 | 24.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3120.00 | 3140.00 | - 20.00 | - 0.64% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3100.00 | 3140.00 | - 40.00 | - 1.27% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 373.00 | 354.00 | 19.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - External market: The overall bearishness of the January USDA report, the strengthening of the South American bumper harvest expectation (Brazil's harvest work is ongoing, and the January export supply has been significantly increased; the crop conditions in the Argentine production area are good), the accelerated pace of US soybean export sales, China's achievement of the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, the continued increase in US soybean crushing in December, and the expected boost from US biodiesel policies. Domestic market: The overall price of meal products declined. The auction of 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, alleviating the expectation of tight supply. The trading volume of domestic long - term basis contracts increased, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment continued. Canada's rapeseed is expected to enter China normally from March 1, 2026. China will reduce the comprehensive tax rate from about 85% to 15% and cancel relevant counter - tariffs on rapeseed meal, etc., with the validity period until the end of 2026, making rapeseed meal perform more weakly [8]. - The January USDA report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean yield remains unchanged at 53 bushels per acre, the production is slightly increased to 4.262 billion bushels, the crushing demand is increased by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels, the export demand is decreased by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 350 million bushels (previously estimated at 290 million bushels), indicating a more relaxed supply. Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the previous month, and the export demand is 114 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons from the previous month. Argentina's soybean production is estimated to be 48.5 million tons, remaining unchanged, and the export demand remains at 8.25 million tons [9]. - As of December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the farm inventory was 1.58 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2%, and the non - farm inventory was 1.71 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10%. As of the week of January 8, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 2.062 million tons (compared to 878,000 tons in the previous week). The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 30.637 million tons, with a sales progress of 71.5% (compared to 80.1% in the same period last year). China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was 1.224 million tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 8.117 million tons and an unshipped volume of 6.024 million tons. Last week, private exporters reported exporting 706,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,404 tons of soybeans to Mexico, all for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Considering the purchases from unknown destinations, it is estimated that the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year has been achieved. In December 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the US soybean crushing margin was 2.12 US dollars per bushel. The spot price of 48% protein bean meal at soybean processing plants in central Illinois was 305.23 US dollars per short ton, and the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans per truck was 10.62 US dollars per bushel. As of the week of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6% (compared to 0.1% last week, 0.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 1%). Brazil's soybean export volume in January is expected to be 3.73 million tons (previously estimated at 2.4 million tons). As of the week of January 14, 2026, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9% (compared to 88.3% in the previous week and 98.2% in the same period last year). The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in Brazil's soybean production area will be slightly lower than the average, and the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area is expected to be 50 mm, lower than the normal level [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.0856 million tons compared to the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a decrease of 126,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 439,400 tons compared to the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.4086 million tons, a decrease of 389,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 846,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.028 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 315,700 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 665,720 tons (including 114,700 tons of spot trading and 551,020 tons of forward trading, compared to a daily average total trading volume of 305,420 tons in the previous week); the daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 185,900 tons (compared to 173,850 tons in the previous week). The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9942 million tons (compared to 1.7658 million tons in the previous week), and the inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 9.94 days (compared to 9.53 days in the previous week) [12]. Industry News - South American production forecasts show that Brazil's upcoming soybean harvest is expected to reach a record 178.7 million tons, and Argentina's production is estimated to be 51.1 million tons. The current weather forecast does not show extreme conditions, consolidating the expectation of a large supply in South America and putting pressure on the international market [14]. - As of the week of January 4, 2026, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 22.1% to 147,800 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to January 4, 2026, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 2.8088 million tons, a 40.5% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.0012 million tons [14]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean harvest rate in the 2025/26 season was 0.6% (compared to 0.3% in the same period last year). Mato Grosso is leading the harvest process, and there is also some harvest activity in Paraná. Some areas have a slightly delayed harvest due to the extended growth cycle of soybeans [14]. - As of January 9, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season was 0.53% (compared to only 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39% in the same period). The harvest progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean - producing state, is higher than the recent average but lower than the 2024 harvest progress. In other regions of Brazil, the harvest is still in its early stages, mainly concentrated in irrigated areas [15]. - In early January 2026, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 9, 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume was 645,738 tons (compared to 1.069 million tons in January 2025). The average daily export volume as of now in January is 107,623 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.5% [15]. - The CONAB agency has revised down the estimated production of Brazil's soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 176.1 million tons (previously estimated at 177.1 million tons), the planted area to 48.7 million hectares (previously estimated at 48.9 million hectares), and the export volume to 111.8 million tons (previously estimated at 112.1 million tons) [15]. - The Agroconsult agency expects Brazil's soybean planted area in the 2025/26 season to be 48.8 million hectares, the same as the November forecast, and the production to be 182.2 million tons, higher than the November forecast of 178.1 million tons. As the crop inspection progresses, there is still room to further revise up the forecast of Brazil's soybean production [16].

氧化铝周报 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2026 年 1 月 19 日 供应维持高开工率 氧化铝压力未减 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端，国产矿北方矿区复产节奏缓慢，南方稳定生 产，国产矿价稳定。进口矿几内亚铝土矿发运稳 定；澳大利亚受雨季影响，矿山开采及发运仍处低 位，交投清淡。供应端山西地区前期减产产能继续 复产，其他地区开工保持稳定，整体开工较上周继 续小幅增加0.31%至80.82%。下游电解铝企业产能 稳定，采购执行长单为主。氧化铝仓单库存17.7万 吨周内增加10237吨。 ⚫ 整体，氧化铝基本面仍利空主导，供应端仍未见集 中减产迹象，开工产能保持高位，同时进口窗口开 启，供应过剩局面延续。前期氧化铝期货价格快速 上涨，现货资源流向交割库存，集中交仓增加了显 性库存压力。氧化铝基本面利空，预计承压再度下 寻支撑。 ⚫ 风险因素：矿端扰动，氧化铝集中减产 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand is slowing down, and the double - coking market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals have limited support. Due to continuous profit contraction, coke enterprises have slowed down their production, and coke output has declined. The output of upstream coal mines has rebounded, putting pressure on the supply side. In the off - season of downstream finished products, the inventory pressure is high, steel mill operations have declined, blast furnace maintenance has increased, and hot metal production has decreased month - on - month. With significant supply - demand pressure, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3163 | 19 | 0.60 | 5178836 | 2320984 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3315 | 21 | 0.64 | 2077198 | 1448345 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 812.0 | - 2.5 | - 0.31 | 1331049 | 652402 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1171.0 | - 24.5 | - 2.05 | 6677833 | 625637 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1717.0 | - 31.0 | - 1.77 | 116309 | 38799 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Downstream**: Steel mill operations declined, blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production decreased month - on - month. Due to the off - season of terminal demand, hot metal production was weak. Steel mills maintained coke production, with a slight decrease in daily coke output and a significant increase in inventory. Last week, the profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a month - on - month increase of 2.17 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.39 percentage points. The daily hot metal output was 228.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.53 tons. The daily coke output was 46.72 (month - on - month - 0.16) tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.38% (- 0.29). The coke inventory was 650.33 (+ 4.6) tons, and the available days of coke were 11.97 (- 0.05) days [5]. - **Mid - stream**: Coking profits contracted significantly, coke enterprises slowed down their operations, and coke output decreased. The average national profit per ton of coke was - 65 (month - on - month - 20) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 72.55% (- 0.14); the daily coke output was 63.45 (- 0.12) tons, and the coke inventory was 81.81 (- 4.26) tons [5]. - **Upstream**: The output of domestic coal mines rebounded, putting pressure on the supply side. Due to the addition of a sample, this period's data showed a large increase. The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. The daily output of raw coal was 197.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.9 tons; the raw coal inventory was 549.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 76.5 tons; the daily output of clean coal was 76.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4 tons; and the clean coal inventory was 272.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.6 tons [6]. 3.3 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies for fiscal and financial coordination to promote domestic demand, including optimizing the loan discount policies for service - sector business entities and personal consumption loans, implementing the loan discount policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, establishing a special guarantee plan for private investment, setting up a risk - sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, and optimizing the fiscal discount policy for equipment renewal loans [7][8]. - The National Commerce Work Conference was held in Beijing from January 10th to 11th. The meeting pointed out that in 2026, the national commerce system should focus on eight aspects of work, including optimizing the implementation of the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones and promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption [11]. - The central bank launched a "combination punch" to support high - quality economic development. This included lowering the rediscount and re - lending rates by 0.25 percentage points, combining the use of re - lending and rediscount quotas for supporting agriculture and small businesses, increasing the re - lending quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 500 billion yuan, setting aside a 1 - trillion - yuan re - lending quota for private enterprises in the total quota, expanding the support scope of the carbon emission reduction support tool, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing purchase loans to 30%. The central bank said that there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [11]. - On January 16th, coking coal options were listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts, including the spot price trends of coking coal and coke, daily production volumes, capacity utilization rates, inventory data, available days of coke for steel mills, and ton - coke profits in different regions [10][13][18] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors are intertwined, increasing the volatility of oils and fats, with the overall market moving in a volatile manner. The MPOB report had a negative impact, with inventory accumulation slightly exceeding expectations. The latest data shows a significant month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production, and due to the recovery of Indian import demand, export demand has continuously improved, providing support for prices. In terms of biodiesel, Indonesia has cancelled the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026, but there is still uncertainty. The US biodiesel policy is expected to be finalized in early March, which may expand the demand for US soybean oil biodiesel and cause a sharp rise in futures prices. It is expected that palm oil will move in a volatile manner in the short term [4][8][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 2.85 to 51.51 cents per pound, an increase of 5.74%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 18 to 4056 ringgit per ton, an increase of 0.45%; DCE palm oil 05 contract fell 8 to 8674 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.09%. DCE soybean oil 05 contract rose 22 to 8016 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.28%; CZCE rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 21 to 9063 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.23%. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also showed different degrees of increase. The soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 658 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan per ton; the rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 389 yuan per ton, an increase of 29 yuan per ton [4][5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The MPOB report in December showed that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory was 3.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%, slightly higher than market expectations; exports were 1.317 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%; production was 1.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76%. - From January 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 18.24% month - on - month. From January 1 - 10, exports increased by 16.4% - 29.2% compared with the same period last month according to different survey agencies. - Indonesia cancelled the implementation of the B50 policy in 2026. The US is advancing its biodiesel policy and is expected to finalize the 2026 biodiesel blending quota in early March, with the quota ranging from 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons. - China - Canada trade relations have improved, and the import comprehensive tariff of Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and the domestic supply of rapeseed is expected to increase in the future. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.0146 million tons, a decrease of 70,200 tons from the previous week. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased by 55,900 tons, palm oil inventory increased by 2,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 16,500 tons [8][9][11]. Industry News - Maybank analyst Ong Chee Ting believes that this year, crude palm oil prices may be mainly driven by demand, with an expected average price of 4100 ringgit per ton, trading in the range of 3700 - 4700 ringgit per ton. - Economists believe that Indonesia's implementation of the B50 biodiesel mandate will enhance Malaysia's competitiveness in the global palm oil market. - CIMB Securities expects that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared. It has lowered the expected average price of crude palm oil this year to 4000 - 4200 ringgit per ton. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline by 5% month - on - month in January to 2.9 million tons, and production is expected to decline by 14% month - on - month to 1.57 million tons. - Malaysia has lowered its reference price for crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. - RHB Research and MBSB Research believe that stable production, high ending inventory in Malaysia, and Indonesia's new policy adjustments are factors supporting the industry. MBSB Research expects the average price of Malaysian crude palm oil in 2026 to be 4200 ringgit per ton, and RHB Research to be 4250 ringgit per ton [13][14][15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, the trends of various oils' inventory, production, and export volume, and the spreads between different oils [18][20][30].