1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 55 to close at 4,229 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.32%; the palm oil 05 contract rose 330 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%. The overall oil and fat sector strengthened with fluctuations. Rapeseed oil led the rise in the oil and fat sector this week. Palm oil fluctuated upward due to factors such as geopolitical issues in Iran, the US cold wave affecting production and supply, expectations of US biodiesel policies, pre - Spring Festival stocking in China, and fundamental support [4][6]. - The market has a consistent expectation of a decrease in production and an increase in demand for Malaysian palm oil in January. It is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report data. Additionally, attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade relationship and the progress of US biodiesel policies. It is expected that palm oil will experience high - level oscillatory adjustments in the short term [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 0.39 to close at 53.54 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.72%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 55 to close at 4,229 ringgit/ton, an increase of 1.32%; the DCE palm oil contract rose 330 to close at 9,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 188 to close at 8,282 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 389 to close at 9,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.33%. The soybean - palm oil futures spread decreased by 142 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - palm oil futures spread increased by 59 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 330 to 9,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 150 to 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 390 to 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00% [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movements**: Similar to the data in the market data section, various oil futures contracts showed different price changes last week, with the overall oil and fat sector strengthening with fluctuations [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US pressured Canada and threatened to impose a 100% tariff. The Canadian Prime Minister stated that he was not seeking a trade agreement with China. Although the market reported that China had purchased several ships of Canadian rapeseed, the future China - Canada trade relationship remains uncertain. Geopolitical issues in Iran and the US cold wave affected production and supply, causing a significant increase in oil prices, which boosted the oil and fat sector. Expectations of US biodiesel policies, pre - Spring Festival stocking in China, and fundamental support further strengthened the upward trend of palm oil [6]. - **Production and Export Data**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while export data from different institutions showed different trends. The SPPOMA data indicated that the yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. The MPOA data showed that the estimated production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43%. The ITS data showed a 9.97% increase in exports, the AmSpec data showed a 7.97% increase, and the SGS data showed a 9.41% decrease [7][8]. - **Trade News**: Trump pressured the China - Canada trade relationship. After the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, Chinese importers signed contracts to purchase up to 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed, with a total of about 650,000 tons, equivalent to more than 10% of China's rapeseed imports in 2024 and about 26% of the 2025 import volume [8]. - **Inventory and Transaction Data**: As of the week of January 23, 2026, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 1.9528 million tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons from the previous week and an increase of 78,000 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of January 30, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 50,660 tons, and that of palm oil was 820 tons [9]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Trump nominated Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, increasing market volatility and causing the US dollar index to rise. The US production is gradually recovering, and attention should be paid to the changes in the US - Iran situation and the decline in oil prices. The market has a consistent expectation of a decrease in production and an increase in demand for Malaysian palm oil in January, waiting for the MPOB report data [9]. 3.3 Industry News - India cancelled 35,000 - 40,000 tons of soybean oil orders from Brazil and Argentina, originally scheduled for February and April - July delivery. The total cancelled soybean oil orders are expected to exceed 50,000 tons due to the rupee exchange rate hitting a record low, which widened the price difference between domestic and imported soybean oil [10]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil main contracts, the futures price index trends of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the monthly production, inventory, and export data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory data of domestic oils [11][13][15].

焦煤焦炭周报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 节前减产增加 双焦震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂节前检修高位，铁水产量偏弱，叠加终端需 求淡季，原料需求不佳。上周钢厂的焦炭生产维持，日 均焦炭产量小增，库存明显增加。 ⚫ 中游：焦化利润反弹，节前焦企减产增加，焦炭产量减 少。全国平均吨焦盈利-55（环比+11）元/吨。上周产 能利用率为71.86%（-0.55）；焦炭日均产量62.84（- 0.47）万吨，焦炭库存84.39（+2.94）万吨。 ⚫ 上游：国内煤矿产量节前回落，库存环比下降，供应压 力放缓。上周523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 89.1%，环比-0.2%。原煤日均产量197.8万吨，环比-1.6 万吨，原煤库存549.6万吨，环比-10.9万吨 ，精煤日 均产量77.1万吨，环比+0.1万吨，精煤库存2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the copper price reached a peak and then declined, mainly due to the rapid cooling of the global market's risk - aversion sentiment. The proposed monetary policy framework of Kevin Warsh, the newly nominated chairman of the Federal Reserve, may boost the US dollar index in the medium - term. The market's divergence became more obvious after the prices of gold, silver, and copper hit record highs. Some long - position funds in precious metals took profits and switched to other assets. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern at the mine end continued, the output of domestic smelters declined marginally, the global visible inventory continued to rise, the premium of domestic trade spot widened, and the C - structure of the near - month futures contract expanded [2][8]. - Overall, Warsh's monetary policy framework may boost the US dollar to a certain extent, causing the global capital market's risk - aversion sentiment to decline significantly. The long - position funds in gold and silver took profits at high levels, triggering a sell - off. However, the structural imbalance in copper's fundamentals can still support the price center in the medium - term. It is expected that the copper price will decline in the short - term, and the fluctuation range will continue to expand [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: LME copper decreased by $58.00 to $13,070.50 per ton, a decline of 0.44%; COMEX copper increased by 3 cents to 596.7 cents per pound, a rise of 0.51%; SHFE copper increased by 2,340 yuan to 103,680 yuan per ton, a rise of 2.31%; international copper increased by 770 yuan to 91,890 yuan per ton, a rise of 0.85% [4]. - **Ratio and Premium Changes**: The Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.21 to 7.93; the LME spot premium decreased by $23.82 to - $89.88 per ton, a decline of 36.06%; the Shanghai spot premium increased by 30 yuan to - 150 yuan per ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 30, the combined inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area rose to 1.085 million tons. LME inventory increased by 3,275 tons to 174,975 tons, a rise of 1.91%; COMEX inventory increased by 15,119 short tons to 577,724 short tons, a rise of 2.69%; SHFE inventory increased by 7,067 tons to 232,986 tons, a rise of 3.13%; Shanghai Bonded Area inventory decreased by 600 tons to 99,000 tons, a decline of 0.60% [7][8]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The decline in copper price was due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the potential boost to the US dollar from Warsh's monetary policy, and the profit - taking of precious - metal long - position funds. Fundamentally, the supply at the mine end was tight, domestic smelter output declined, inventory increased, and the spot premium and futures structure changed [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The global copper inventory continued to rise. The LME copper inventory increased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased; the SHFE inventory increased; the Shanghai Bonded Area inventory decreased. The decline in the Yangshan copper warrant was due to the traditional consumption off - season and import losses [8]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate, and Powell mentioned possible policy relaxation. The US consumer confidence index declined, and the US - Iran conflict escalated. Domestically, the release of the Qwen3 - Max - Thinking model will promote the development of the data center, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" grid investment will support copper consumption [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The copper production of some global mining companies declined or was expected to decline, and the domestic refined copper supply had marginal contraction pressure. In terms of demand, traditional industries were affected by high copper prices, while emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and AI data centers provided new consumption momentum [10]. Industry News - **Southern Copper**: Due to the decline in ore grades at its core mines in Peru and the focus on increasing silver production, the company expects its copper production to decline in 2026 - 2027. It is estimated to be 91.14 tons in 2026 and "slightly over 90 tons" in 2027, compared with 95.427 tons in 2025 [12]. - **Antofagasta**: Its 2025 copper production was 65.37 tons, a 1.6% year - on - year decline, not meeting the performance guidance. The company maintained its 2026 production outlook. It also reduced its 2025 capital expenditure due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso and was fined for water - management violations [13]. - **Glencore**: Its 2025 copper production decreased by 11% to 85.16 tons, at the lower end of the expected range. It expects 2026 production to be between 810,000 and 870,000 tons, and aims to increase annual production to about 1.6 million tons by 2035, subject to potential changes from mergers and acquisitions [14]. Relevant Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, basis, spread, premium, and other aspects of copper in different markets such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, and COMEX, as well as the relationship between copper prices and other factors like exchange rates and investment positions [16][20][24][30][32][36][38][42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The port trade transactions are good, and steel mills' pre - Spring Festival restocking provides some support, with in - plant inventories rising rapidly. However, the molten iron output is weakly stable before the festival, and the daily consumption of iron ore is at a low level. The overseas shipments increased last week, the arrivals decreased month - on - month, the port clearance remained high, and the inventory continued to increase. It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile and pressured trend [1][4][5][6] Summary by Directory Transaction Data - SHFE rebar: The closing price is 3128 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, a decline of 0.45%. The total trading volume is 5,036,448 lots, and the total open interest is 2,376,275 lots [2] - SHFE hot - rolled coil: The closing price is 3288 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan, a decline of 0.51%. The total trading volume is 1,922,037 lots, and the total open interest is 1,547,118 lots [2] - DCE iron ore: The closing price is 791.5 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan, a decline of 0.44%. The total trading volume is 1,277,262 lots, and the total open interest is 555,392 lots [2] - DCE coking coal: The closing price is 1155.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan, a decline of 0.13%. The total trading volume is 4,894,069 lots, and the total open interest is 616,871 lots [2] - DCE coke: The closing price is 1721.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, a decline of 0.03%. The total trading volume is 96,984 lots, and the total open interest is 38,611 lots [2] Market Review - **Demand side**: Last week, the molten iron output was weakly stable. Before the festival, the daily consumption of iron ore was at a low level, the in - plant inventories increased rapidly, and steel mills' restocking provided some support. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and 1.02 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous week but an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week and 9.53 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.53 million tons from the same period last year [4] - **Supply side**: Last week, overseas shipments increased, arrivals decreased month - on - month, port clearance remained high, and inventories continued to increase. The total global iron ore shipments were 2.9783 million tons, an increase of 0.0485 million tons from the previous week. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2.3943 million tons, an increase of 0.1476 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 17.75826 million tons, an increase of 0.26173 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 0.34771 million tons, an increase of 0.02719 million tons [5] Industry News - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 3.5% and 3.75%, in line with market expectations [10] - According to the World Steel Association, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the statistics of the World Steel Association in December 2025 was 139.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.8494 billion tons [10] - Brazil's Vale released its production and sales report for the fourth quarter of 2025, showing that its iron ore output in the fourth quarter was 90.403 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 4.2% but a year - on - year increase of 6%; the iron ore sales volume in the fourth quarter was 84.874 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.3% but a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. Vale's total annual iron ore output in 2025 was 336 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [10] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the national steel mill profitability rate, daily average pig iron output, 247 steel mills' daily average molten iron output, national blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, global pig iron and crude steel output trends, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, and various iron ore inventory and port clearance volume charts [9][11]

贵金属周报 沃什提名出任美联储主席，贵金属遭受 重挫 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周五，沃什获美联储主席提名引爆鹰派预期，全球贵金 属市场遭遇史诗级暴跌，特别是COMEX白银期货价格一度 跌超35%失守75美元/盎司关口，COMEX黄金期货价格一度 跌近13%失守4700美元/盎司关口。NYMEX铂钯期货价格盘 中也跌幅超过20%。虽然，贵金属期货价格尾盘都有所反 弹收回部分跌幅，但仍创单日历史最大跌幅。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 ⚫ 风险因素：美国非农就业数据不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2026 年 2 月 2 日 ⚫ 虽然沃什的提名还需获得参议院批准，但目前基本可以确 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The macro - level policy in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, with the compilation of the "15th Five - Year" plan to boost consumption and the implementation of consumption promotion actions [1][4][6] - Last week, the industrial data of the steel industry was mediocre. The output of rebar remained flat, apparent demand declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The data of hot - rolled coils changed little. Before the Spring Festival, steel mills increased maintenance, reducing steel supply. On the demand side, construction sites shut down, and trade transactions dropped significantly, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand in the steel market. Overall, the market is mainly in a volatile state, and future attention should be paid to inventory trends and policy changes. [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage % | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3128 | - 14 | - 0.45 | 5036448 | 2376275 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3288 | - 17 | - 0.51 | 1922037 | 1547118 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 791.5 | - 3.5 | - 0.44 | 1277262 | 555392 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1155.5 | - 1.5 | - 0.13 | 4894069 | 616871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1721.5 | - 0.5 | - 0.03 | 96984 | 38611 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend. The seasonal weakening of demand suppressed steel prices, and market sentiment fluctuations increased price volatility. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billets was 2940 (0) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3250 (- 20) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3270 (- 20) Yuan/ton [4] - Some steel mills have introduced relatively favorable winter storage policies for traders, mainly the post - settlement model, which reduces traders' risks when prices fall. Some regions have lock - price policies with a price range of 3130 - 3170 Yuan/ton, and some policies include interest support [4] - Most short - process steel mills will shut down in February, with the most concentrated shutdown period from February 1st to 8th, about one week later than last year, indicating that there are still small profits in production [4] 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce plans to expand domestic demand, compile the "15th Five - Year" plan for consumption expansion, and promote the construction of a strong domestic market [1][4][6] - In February 2026, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is expected to be 23.79 million units, a 22.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Specifically, the production volume of household air conditioners is expected to be 11.49 million units, a 31.6% decrease; refrigerators are expected to be 6 million units, a 17% decrease; and washing machines are expected to be 6.3 million units, a 3.2% decrease [6] - As of January 21, 2026, 12 steel mills have released winter storage policies. A new steel mill has joined, with a winter storage period from February 10th to March 28th, 2026. There are regulations on price - locking and a 20 - Yuan/ton rebate policy. Winter storage loans accrue interest at an annual rate of 5% [6] - The shutdown and restart plans of 39 electric arc furnace steel mills show a pattern of "slow start and fast shutdown before the holiday, and cautious and delayed restart". The shutdown time is concentrated from late January to early February, about 3 - 5 days later than in 2025. The restart time is generally more cautious, with the earliest restart on February 23rd and most enterprises planning to restart around the Lantern Festival. Nearly half of the enterprises' restart times are yet to be determined, later than in 2025 [6] - In the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to find a new balance. Affected by the new policy, China's steel exports in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to decline by 15% - 20% compared to the 27.42 million tons in the first quarter of 2025 [6] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional spot price differences, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2022 to 2026 [9][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints Electrolytic Aluminum - In the short - term, due to the sharp drop in precious metals and the seasonal off - season of Spring Festival consumption, the futures price is expected to adjust at a high level. In the long - term, the expectation of two Fed rate cuts remains unchanged, supply constraints exist in the long - term, and the aluminum demand in new fields like energy storage, data centers, and new energy vehicles is growing explosively, so the upward trend of aluminum price remains optimistic [3][8] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, maintaining a high - level shock. The supply - side production capacity decreases slightly, the import window is closed, and the supply pressure is not large. The profit has slightly recovered, and enterprises' willingness to ship has increased. The demand side continues to weaken [3][9] 3. Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/30 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 3173.5 | 3135.5 | - 38.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 24395 | 24695 | 300.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.7 | 7.9 | 0.2 | | | LME Spot Premium | - 3.75 | - 26.66 | - 22.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 507275 | 495725 | - 11550.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 141152 | 145071 | 3919.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 23816 | 24336 | 520.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 170 | - 240 | - 70.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 23858 | 24318 | 460.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | - 42 | 18 | 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 74.3 | 78.2 | 3.9 | tons | | Electrolytic Aluminum Theoretical Average Cost | 15883.79 | 15866.81 | - 17.0 | yuan/ton | | Electrolytic Aluminum Weekly Average Profit | 7932.21 | 8469.19 | 537.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum SMM Spot | 24000 | 24350 | 350.0 | yuan/ton | | Cast Aluminum Baotai Spot | 23500 | 23700 | 200.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Foshan | 2919 | 3174 | 255.0 | yuan/ton | | Refined - Scrap Price Difference - Shanghai | 3725 | 4088 | 363.0 | yuan/ton | | Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 67892 | 68206 | 314.0 | tons | [4] Market Review Electrolytic Aluminum - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 24336 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot is 24318 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton from last week. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged, Trump plans to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, the US government may face a partial shutdown, US durable goods orders increased significantly in November 2025, the consumer confidence index in January decreased, and the trade deficit in November 2025 increased significantly. Iran will hold a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz. The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate dropped to 59.4%, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6] Cast Aluminum - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 24350 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan and Shanghai increased. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose to 58.9%, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 314 tons [7] Market Outlook Electrolytic Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a rise in the US dollar index, the position of SHFE aluminum fluctuated. The supply of new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia increased slowly, the aluminum water ratio decreased, the aluminum processing operating rate dropped significantly, and the inventory increased. In the short - term, the price is expected to adjust at a high level, and in the long - term, the upward trend remains [8] Cast Aluminum - The situation is similar to the core view. The operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased, the demand weakened, some enterprises stopped production in advance for the Spring Festival, the price of cast aluminum increased rapidly, the inventory of the exchange increased. The supply pressure is not large, the profit has slightly recovered, and the demand continues to weaken, maintaining a high - level shock [9] Industry News - Baitong Energy plans to invest no more than $40 million in Angola to set up a subsidiary for electrolytic aluminum processing [10][11] - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest about $437 million in Indonesia to build a 250,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project [14] - Emirates Global Aluminum and Century Aluminum will jointly build an electrolytic aluminum plant in the US, with an expected annual output of 750,000 tons [14] - The exchange added two registered aluminum ingot brands with a total production capacity of 1 million tons [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, etc., which show the historical data and trends of relevant indicators [13][16][18]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures reached a high and then declined. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump as the new Fed Chair turned the market sentiment. Warsh advocates "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction", leading the market to expect a more hawkish Fed policy. The strengthening US dollar index and the sharp drop in precious metals dragged down the industrial metals. China's January PMI fell below the boom - bust line and was weaker than the seasonal average. [3][9] - Fundamentally, the previous supporting factors have weakened. With the US - Iran dialogue, the concerns about the zinc ore supply and energy price hikes have eased. Due to the off - season of domestic consumption and rising raw material prices, downstream enterprises began to take holidays at the end of January, and the开工 rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises decreased. [3][9] - On the supply side, the rising zinc price repaired the smelters' profits, and production was relatively stable. China has entered the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation period, and the fundamentals cannot support the current high price. However, the cold wave in the US pushed up the European natural gas price, increasing overseas smelters' production costs. During the long - term processing fee negotiation period, potential supply disruptions can support the price. [3][9] - Overall, Warsh's hawkish policy stance will push the US dollar to rebound, and the selling pressure on precious metals will spill over to industrial metals. The weakening demand before the Chinese Spring Festival is negative for the zinc price. In the short term, the futures price faces significant adjustment pressure. After the release of pessimistic sentiment, the rising overseas smelting costs and potential supply disruptions will limit the depth of the price adjustment. The market is currently highly volatile, and cautious trading is recommended. [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Trading Data - From January 23rd to January 30th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 24,585 yuan/ton to 25,835 yuan/ton, an increase of 1250 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3269 US dollars/ton to 3370 US dollars/ton, an increase of 101 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.52 to 7.67. [4] - The SHFE inventory decreased by 7997 tons to 65,154 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 110,000 tons. The social inventory decreased by 1.32 million tons to 10.37 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. [4] 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2603) reached a new high of 26,985 yuan/ton last week, then closed at 25,835 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly gain of 5.08%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc reached 3575.5 US dollars/ton, then closed at 3370 US dollars/ton, with a weekly gain of 3.09%. [5] - In the spot market as of January 30th, zinc prices rose, smelters and traders actively sold, but downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase due to high prices, and some had already taken holidays. The spot market turned to a slight discount. [6] - As of January 30th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 110,000 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 7997 tons to 65,154 tons. As of January 29th, the social inventory increased, with a decrease in Tianjin and Guangdong and an increase in Shanghai. [7] - In the macro - aspect, the US durable goods orders in November 2025 increased by 5.3% month - on - month, and the core durable goods orders increased by 0.5%. The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Iran and the US were in dialogue. Trump raised tariffs on South Korean goods and threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian planes. China's January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and comprehensive PMI was 49.8%. [7][8] 3. Industry News - On the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were reported at 1500 yuan/metal ton and 25.5 US dollars/dry ton, with the average remaining flat and decreasing by 4.25 US dollars/dry ton respectively. [11] - Southern Copper found a high - grade zinc and silver ore section in Mexico. Develop Global's Woodlawn copper - zinc mine in New South Wales achieved stable production. Glencore's zinc output in 2025 was 969,400 tons, a 7% increase from 2024. Fresnilloplc's zinc concentrate output in Q4 2025 was 27,500 tons, a 11% increase quarter - on - quarter. 29Metals' zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 was 3400 tons, a 72% increase quarter - on - quarter. South 32's zinc concentrate output in Q4 2025 was 10,400 tons, a 25% increase quarter - on - quarter. [12] - Starting from the close of trading on January 30, 2026, the daily price limit for alumina, lead, and zinc futures contracts was adjusted to 9%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 10%, and the general position margin ratio to 11%. [13] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, spot premiums and discounts, inventory levels of different exchanges and regions, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise开工 rates. [14][18][20]

2026 年 2 月 2 日 乐观情绪消退 铅价下寻支撑 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 铅周报 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价围绕万七一线震荡。宏观面看，特朗 普提名沃什为下任美联储主席人选，市场修正降息预 期，美元反弹，资金获利离场，贵金属有色均出现调整。 要点 基本面看，铅矿加工费维持弱势承压格局，原料保持偏 紧态势。废旧电瓶区域报价差异较大，存在跨区域流转 的情况，但铅价回落且再生铅炼厂减产，需求减少，回 收商报价稳中偏降。冶炼端，原生铅炼厂减复产并存， 增减相当，供应稳定。华中、华北多地环保管控，再生 铅炼厂配合减停产，同时随着亏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is experiencing intensified fluctuations, and the A - share market is in an accelerated style rotation phase. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend remains positive under policy expectations and fundamental support [2][3]. - The precious metals market has seen sharp fluctuations, and the short - term risk has increased. The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end [4][5]. - Copper prices are driven by both hedging and speculation, with the valuation rising. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [6][7]. - Aluminum prices have shown large fluctuations at high levels due to strong profit - taking intentions. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. - Alumina prices are stabilizing and oscillating. Supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, and follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. - Cast aluminum is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price movement follows the cost and oscillates at high levels [11]. - Zinc prices are running strongly, but weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, with trading enthusiasm converging. The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations [16]. - Steel prices are oscillating and rebounding. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation before the holiday, and the overall trend is oscillating [17]. - Iron ore prices are following the sector's rise and rebounding. The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. - Coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate. US soybean export sales are expected to slow down, and downstream stocking demand is weakening [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Political uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the US are rising, leading to differentiated market risk preferences and increased volatility. The US Senate's appropriation bill is blocked, and there is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The US stock market is adjusted due to concerns about AI capital expenditure returns, and the 10Y US Treasury yield is at 4.23%. The US dollar index has recovered to 96.3. Gold is oscillating at a high level, crude oil has strengthened significantly, and LME copper has reached a record high [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market closed up on Thursday with a rotation of styles. Funds returned to the dividend sector, and technology stocks led the decline. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded to 3.26 trillion yuan, and the margin trading scale reached a new high of 2.74 trillion yuan. The short - term market will mainly feature structural opportunities, and the medium - term trend is positive [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Prices fluctuated sharply on Thursday. COMEX gold reached a record high in the morning and then tumbled at night, while COMEX silver also reached a record high and then gave up its gains. The flash crash at night was mainly due to profit - taking after the January delivery of COMEX ended, and then prices rose again after Trump's remarks. In 2025, global gold demand exceeded 5000 tons for the first time, and investment demand increased by 84% to 2175 tons. Central bank gold purchases slowed down by one - fifth to 863 tons [4][5]. - The current rally driven by market sentiment and speculative funds may be near its end, and the short - term adjustment risk is increasing. The gold - silver ratio is expected to recover from a low level [5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, and LME copper reached a high of 14,500 and then fell back to 13,700. The domestic spot market had poor trading, and downstream buyers were hesitant. LME and COMEX inventories increased [6]. - The market is affected by geopolitical risks, and the volatility will further increase. The overall metal valuation will rise in the wave of AI and global electrification transformation. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the mine has proposed a new labor contract [6][7]. - Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels, and the downward adjustment space is limited [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25,590 yuan/ton, up 2.92%, and LME aluminum closed at 3233.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.92%. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased [8]. - The US government faces a partial shutdown risk, and Iran will hold a military exercise. The sharp fluctuations in precious metals and copper prices at night affected market sentiment, and profit - taking intentions were strong. The market is dominated by sentiment, and attention should be paid to volatility risks [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main futures contract of alumina closed at 2816 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. The national average spot price was 2648 yuan/ton, unchanged. The theoretical import window was open, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [10]. - After some alumina plants reduced production, the supply - demand surplus pressure has slightly eased, but the overall supply still exceeds demand. Follow - up production capacity changes should be monitored [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main futures contract of cast aluminum alloy closed at 23,850 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. Spot prices also rose. The exchange inventory increased [11]. - Affected by weakening demand, the operating rate of cast aluminum continued to decline, and consumption continued to weaken. Cast aluminum itself has few contradictions, and its price movement follows the primary aluminum and oscillates at high levels [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc strengthened during the day and then fell back at night, reaching a new high of 26,985 yuan/ton. The spot market maintained a small discount. Social inventories increased slightly. Some mines had positive news about production [12]. - The market is affected by the uncertainty of the Iranian situation and the rise in overseas smelting costs. Although the overall situation is favorable, weak demand makes it difficult to support high prices. Short - term prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations [12][13]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market saw active selling by holders, and the social inventory increased slightly [15]. - Lead prices follow the non - ferrous metal sector. Although there is support at the bottom due to environmental regulations and production cuts, the upside is limited in the short term and is expected to oscillate around 17,000 [15]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated during the day and then fell back at night. The spot market had different price premiums. The trading enthusiasm has converged, and the main contract position has not increased significantly [16]. - The supply of tin ore has improved slightly, and the demand shows a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The medium - and long - term supply - demand situation is good. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [16]. 3.10 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 7.3 million tons. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Many electric arc furnace steel mills will stop production during the Spring Festival [17]. - Before the holiday, steel mill maintenance increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The demand is weak, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and inventory accumulation. The overall trend is oscillating [17]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The trading volume of the spot market was 86 million tons. Steel mill inventories increased due to pre - holiday restocking, but the daily consumption was at a low level. Overseas shipments increased slightly, and port inventories were at a high level [18]. - The overall supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [18]. 3.12 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The price of Shanxi main coking coal decreased, and the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased. Many coal mines will stop production during the Spring Festival, affecting a large amount of production capacity [19]. - Supply is shrinking before the holiday, and the downstream demand is weak. Although there is still some restocking expectation before the holiday, the overall driving force is limited. The futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.13 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 05 contract of soybean meal closed up 0.9%, and the 05 contract of rapeseed meal closed up 1.84%. US soybean export sales decreased significantly in the week ending January 22. Argentina's soybean sales increased, and Brazil's soybean export forecast for January 25 - 31 is 189.245 million tons [20]. - US soybean export sales are expected to slow down as China shifts its purchases to the South American market. The expected high yield in Brazil limits the upside of the market. Downstream stocking demand is weakening before the Spring Festival. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [20][21]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 05 contract of palm oil closed up 1.15%. The US dollar index is weak, and there is a risk of supply interruption in Iran, leading to a significant rise in oil prices. China has completed the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed [22]. - The macro environment and fundamentals are favorable for the oil sector. Palm oil prices are approaching the pressure level. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to whether the pressure level can be effectively broken through [22].