Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, copper prices showed a pattern of strength in the overseas market and weakness in the domestic market. Trump's announcement of a 50% high - tariff on imported copper from August 1st caused a sharp rise in US copper prices. A large amount of cross - market arbitrage funds entered the market, suppressing the prices of LME copper and SHFE copper. Some Fed officials believe that there will most likely be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices is more moderate than expected, boosting market risk appetite. US copper is strong, but the risk of inventory surplus after the tariff implementation poses a pressure on further upward movement. LME copper will maintain a relatively strong oscillation, while SHFE copper will be weak in the short term under the dual pressure of reduced imported supplies and cross - market arbitrage [3][9]. - Overall, Trump's two rounds of tariff collection actions have triggered market concerns about the deterioration of trade relations. The upcoming high - tariff on US copper has led to the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic copper prices. The Fed's meeting minutes show a large divergence between hawks and doves, and maintaining the status quo in July is still the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the resumption of overseas interrupted mines is slim, the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern, deliverable supplies are flowing into North America, and domestic social inventory is fluctuating at a low level. It is expected that the overseas copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and SHFE copper will face pressure to回调 and confirm the lower support [4][12][13]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From July 4th to July 11th, LME copper decreased from $9852.00/ton to $9663.00/ton, a decrease of $189.00 or - 1.92%; COMEX copper increased from 506.25 cents/pound to 558.4 cents/pound, an increase of 52.15 cents or 10.30%; SHFE copper decreased from 79730.00 yuan/ton to 78430.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1300.00 yuan or - 1.63%; international copper decreased from 70990.00 yuan/ton to 69600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1390.00 yuan or - 1.96%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.09 to 8.12. The LME spot premium decreased from $95.35/ton to - $21.57/ton, a decrease of $116.92 or - 122.62%. The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 115 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan [5]. - As of July 11th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas increased to 491,373 tons, a 5.60% increase. Among them, LME copper inventory increased by 13,450 tons, LME0 - 3 shifted back to the B structure, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 37.6%; SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons; bonded area inventory increased by 2,500 tons, and the Yangshan copper bill of lading rose to $60. The COMEX premium over LME reached up to 28%, causing deliverable supplies to rush to North America [8][9]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices showed an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern last week. The high - tariff on US copper led to a sharp rise in COMEX copper, and cross - market arbitrage funds suppressed LME and SHFE copper. The Fed's possible interest rate cuts boosted market sentiment. US copper is restricted by inventory risks, LME copper will oscillate strongly, and SHFE copper will be weak in the short term. Overseas mines' resumption is difficult, and the global refined copper market remains in a tight - balance pattern [3][9]. - In terms of inventory, the global inventory continued to rebound. LME copper inventory increased, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and bonded area inventory increased. The COMEX - LME premium led to the transfer of supplies to North America, and some imported copper will flow back to China in the future. The Shanghai - London ratio rose slightly to 8.12 [9][10]. - Macroscopically, Trump postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs to August 1st and threatened to impose high - tariffs on copper. COMEX copper soared and then fell. US consumer inflation expectations have eased. Fed officials are divided on the impact of tariffs on inflation, and most believe there will be at least two interest rate cuts this year, but there are also officials who think the interest rate will remain unchanged. In China, June's CPI and core CPI increased, while PPI decreased, but some factors will drive price recovery [11]. - In terms of supply and demand, overseas mines' interruptions continue, and the domestic spot TC remains at - $45/ton. Under the negative processing fee, large and medium - sized smelters maintain production with by - product profits, while some small and medium - sized smelters face the risk of production reduction. On the demand side, power grid investment projects have started, the copper cable enterprise's operating rate in June decreased slightly, the orders of refined copper rod enterprises declined, the new energy vehicle production and sales maintained a high growth rate, and the traditional industry supports the demand base [12]. Industry News - In May, Codelco's copper production was 130,100 tons, a 16.5% year - on - year increase; Escondida's production was 132,000 tons, a 24.4% year - on - year increase; Collahuasi's production was 38,400 tons, a 16.9% year - on - year decrease. In June, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.135 million tons, a 13% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production in the first half of the year was 6.6 million tons, a 11.4% cumulative year - on - year increase [14]. - Hudbay Minerals temporarily suspended the operation of Snow Lake due to wildfires in northern Canada, but expects to resume operations efficiently once the wildfire situation improves and still aims to achieve its annual guidance in Manitoba in 2025 [14]. - Capstone Copper obtained environmental approval for its $150 - million Mantoverde Optimized project in Chile, which will extend the mine's service life from 19 to 25 years and increase the annual copper - equivalent production from 97,000 - 112,000 tons to 125,000 - 135,000 tons [15]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 250 - 550 yuan/ton last week, with the highest price decreasing by 50 yuan/ton. The decline in domestic copper premiums and the operating rate of cable enterprises led to a decrease in the order scale of refined copper rod enterprises. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will continue to decline slowly in mid - to - late July [16].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The tariff policy has reappeared as a disturbance, suppressing market risk appetite, but the impact has weakened marginally. Domestic policy expectations are positive, and the macro - environment is relatively stable. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of high supply and declining demand in the off - season. Stockpiling has accelerated since July, but the strengthening overseas structure provides support. With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, zinc prices are fluctuating, and a volatile trading strategy is recommended [3][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE zinc price decreased from 22410 yuan/ton on July 4th to 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th, a drop of 30 yuan/ton. LME zinc price increased from 2735.5 dollars/ton to 2738 dollars/ton, a rise of 2.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.19 to 8.17, a decline of 0.02. The SHFE inventory increased by 4617 tons to 49981 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 7075 tons to 105250 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 9.03 million tons, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - The price of the main SHFE zinc contract ZN2508 first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the week, tariff disturbances and accelerated stockpiling dragged down the price, while in the second half, the strengthening overseas structure and squeeze concerns boosted the price. It finally closed at 22380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. LME zinc stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2738 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%. In the spot market, due to the off - season and rising zinc prices, downstream purchasing was weak, and the spot premium declined significantly [6][7] 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the weekly average domestic TC of SMM Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.23 dollars/dry ton to 66.48 dollars/dry ton. The Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate in Q2 2025, and the annual zinc production guidance remains unchanged at 180,000 - 240,000 metal tons [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, the spot premium, LME premium, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][15][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro uncertainties are strong, and short - term macro impacts may still fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable while consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are not abundant, and the continuous accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere in the short - term remains, and future inventory changes should be monitored [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME Aluminum 3 - month price rose from 2597.5 to 2602 yuan/ton; SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three rose from 20490 to 20525 dollars/ton; LME Aluminum inventory increased by 36350 tons to 400275 tons; SHFE Aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 13495 tons to 51980 tons; spot average price decreased by 102 yuan/ton to 20698 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 139.4 yuan/ton to 4111.18 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average spot price was 20698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton from last week. Fed officials have different views on interest rate prospects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6%. On July 10, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.8 tons to 46.6 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.65 tons to 16 tons [4][5] Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, macro uncertainties are high, and short - term macro impacts may fluctuate. Fundamentally, supply is stable and consumption is seasonally weak, but market arrivals are scarce, and the continuous accumulation of inventory is not confirmed. The long - position atmosphere remains, and inventory changes should be monitored [6] Industry News - Yunnan held a meeting on the green aluminum industry, and the Wenshan Zhilv project was put into operation; Canada may provide financial support to large aluminum producers if the 50% US aluminum import tariff persists; Baotou Aluminum's 200,000 - ton project had a successful hot - load test [7] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three price trends, LME Aluminum premium, etc., to show the market situation of the aluminum industry [8][9][12]

铅周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 多空矛盾不突出 铅价窄幅震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价窄幅震荡。宏观面看，市场关注特 朗普关税消息，市场更倾向于 "TACO"方向交易，风险 偏好有抑制但可控。 要点 基本面看，铅精矿依旧紧俏，部分炼厂采购粗铅作为 原料补充，生产较稳定，内外加工费维持低位，进口 矿加工费更为承压。前半周铅价回调，废旧电瓶回收 ...

李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 供需双降预期支撑 铁矿延续偏强势头 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：近期检修增加，上周铁水环比减少，根据高 炉停复产计划，预计铁矿需求延续偏弱状态。上周 247家钢厂高炉开工率83.15%，环比上周减少0.31个 百分点，同比去年增加0.65个百分点，日均铁水产 量 239.81万吨，环比上周减少1.04万吨，同比去年 增加1.52万吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 40.75 to close at 1007.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 3.89%. The September soybean meal contract rose 22 to close at 2976 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.74%. The South China soybean meal spot price closed at 2820 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week. The September rapeseed meal contract rose 36 to close at 2633 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.39%. The Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2510 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.8% [4]. - The U.S. soybean market was volatile and declined last week. On one hand, the hydrothermal conditions in the production areas were suitable, and the crop growth was good. On the other hand, the U.S. unilaterally issued a tax - levy letter, reigniting trade concerns. In addition, the export sales pace of new U.S. soybean crops was slow. The July USDA report lowered the export demand for new crops, and the inventory increased slightly to 310 million bushels, which was slightly bearish. In China, the spot supply was sufficient, and the price was generally stable. The sentiment in the commodity market improved, and there was an expectation of tight supply in the distant future, so the Dalian soybean meal contract closed up [4]. - The progress of the U.S. tariff and trade policy is slow, and the difficulty of reaching an agreement has increased. Market concerns may weaken the U.S. agricultural product export market. The July USDA report is generally slightly bearish, with the export demand for new crops lowered and the ending inventory slightly increased to 310 million bushels. The weather in the production areas will be good in the next two weeks, which is conducive to crop growth. The U.S. soybean may fluctuate widely. In China, there will be a large amount of soybean arrivals in the near term, the soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the spot price is stable. Under the expectation of China's anti - involution policy, the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. The soybean procurement pace in the fourth quarter is slow. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. Overall, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1007.50 | 1048.25 | - 40.75 | - 3.89% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 467.00 | 465.00 | 2.00 | 0.43% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 452.00 | 448.00 | 4.00 | 0.89% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 32.57 | - 98.05 | 65.48 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2976.00 | 2954.00 | 22.00 | 0.74% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2633.00 | 2597.00 | 36.00 | 1.39% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 343.00 | 357.00 | - 14.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2830.00 | 2820.00 | 10.00 | 0.35% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2820.00 | 2820.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 156.00 | - 134.00 | - 22.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybean market fell last week due to suitable hydrothermal conditions in the production areas, reignited trade concerns, slow export sales of new crops, and a slightly bearish USDA report. In China, the soybean meal market was stable in the short term with sufficient supply, and the Dalian soybean meal contract closed up due to improved market sentiment and expectations of tight supply in the future [4][7]. - The July USDA report shows that for the 2024/2025 season, the U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 15 million bushels to 1.865 billion bushels, the residual balance was slightly lowered, and the ending inventory remained unchanged at 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 season, the planting area was 83.4 million acres, 0.1 million acres less than the June report. The yield per acre remained at 52.5 bushels. The crushing demand was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels, the export demand was lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 310 million bushels, an increase of 15 million bushels compared with the June report. The adjustment in South America was limited and in line with expectations. The report is generally slightly bearish [8]. - As of the week of July 6, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, in line with market expectations. The emergence rate was 96%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. As of the week of July 8, about 9% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas will be higher than normal and the temperature will be lower than the average in the next 15 days [8][9]. - As of the week of July 3, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current year increased by 503,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.439 million tons, with a sales progress of 99.4%. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week was 248,000 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1.837 million tons [9]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.42 per bushel, an 8% decrease from the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was $263.10 per short ton. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.78 cents per pound. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.31 per bushel [10]. - Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 11.93 million tons, compared with 9.6 million tons in the same period last year. According to the official shipping schedule of Brazilian ports, the expected export volume in July is 11.929 million tons, a significant increase compared with 9.579 million tons in the same period last year. The export volume in June was 13.931 million tons, and it is expected to remain at a high level in August but with a more moderate increase [10]. - As of the week of July 4, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.364 million tons, 294,700 tons less than the previous week and 645,100 tons more than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 822,400 tons, 130,800 tons more than the previous week and 260,300 tons less than the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 6.127 million tons, 2.804 million tons more than the previous week and 79,000 tons less than the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 7.88 million tons, 208,000 tons less than the previous week and 824,200 tons more than the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of July 11, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China was 131,620 tons, including 95,820 tons of spot trading and 35,800 tons of forward trading. The average daily pick - up volume was 183,540 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2954 million tons. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 7.92 days [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Brazil exported 1.91795097 million tons of soybeans in the first week of July, with an average daily export volume of 479,487.74 tons, 2% less than the average daily export volume in July last year [13]. - Bunge will transport 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal to China from a terminal in Rosario. This will be Argentina's first soybean meal export to China [13]. - As of the week of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was 58.97%, and in Alberta it was 58.1%. The growth stages of rapeseed in Manitoba vary widely [13]. - Brazil's soybean exports are expected to remain at a high level in July and August. The estimated export volume in the first half of this year is 80.915 million tons, more than 75.709 million tons in the same period last year [14]. - The estimated total supply of soybeans in Mato Grosso in the 2025/2026 season is 48.55 million tons, with an estimated output of 47.18 million tons and an initial inventory of 1.36 million tons. The total demand is estimated to be 47.61 million tons, and the ending inventory is 940,000 tons, a 3.28% decrease from the previous estimate. The estimated output is 7.29% less than that in the 2024/2025 season, mainly due to lower productivity. The planting area is expected to increase by 1.67% [14]. - Argentine farmers will prefer to plant corn over soybeans in the 2025/2026 season due to high soybean export tax rates, low prices, and low profit margins [15]. - As of June 30, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/2025 season were 2.84 million tons, compared with 3.49 million tons last year. The soybean imports were 14.52 million tons, compared with 13.2 million tons last year. The soybean meal imports were 19.39 million tons, compared with 15.28 million tons last year. The rapeseed imports were 7.45 million tons, compared with 5.68 million tons last year [15]. - As of the week of July 2, Argentine farmers sold 2.1634 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/2025 season, with a cumulative sales volume of 25.5779 million tons. They also sold 140,700 tons of soybeans in the 2025/2026 season, with a cumulative sales volume of 405,100 tons [15]. - The estimated rapeseed output of the EU 27 + UK in the 2025/2026 season is 20.3 million tons, with an estimated range between 19.3 million tons and 21.3 million tons [16]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of U.S. soybean contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF prices, RMB exchange rates, soybean crushing margins in different regions, soybean meal contract trends, spot prices in different regions, and various inventory and trading volume data charts [17][18][21][24][26][28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Material factory production increased slightly month-on-month, but downstream receiving was weak, and downstream inventory only increased slightly after excluding exchange warehouse receipts. Sellers actively raised prices, and there was a large difference in the acceptance of high-priced lithium between upstream and downstream. Lithium salt production remained high, and high-frequency output was close to the previous high, and price increases drove upstream复产 [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rise in the futures price, the price of lithium ore strengthened [4]. - Futures: Affected by the low level of exchange warehouse receipts and various market information disturbances, lithium prices mostly rose from low levels but were blocked near new highs. Open interest first increased and then decreased, and the candlestick chart showed a doji structure several times, indicating obvious differences between bulls and bears. The KDJ sensitivity line weakened, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, indicating a weakening expectation [4]. - Later view: The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may回调. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%): The price increased from $110/ton to $113/ton, a change of $3.00 and a change rate of 2.73% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6.00 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: It increased from 6.33 million yuan/ton to 6.43 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 1.58% [6]. - Spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.05 million yuan/ton to 0.00 million yuan/ton, a change of -6.05 million yuan and a change rate of -100.00% [6]. - Main contract price of lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.37 million yuan/ton to 6.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.08 million yuan and a change rate of -1.22% [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles): The price remained unchanged at 5.80 million yuan/ton [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles): The price decreased from 6.32 million yuan/ton to 6.30 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.02 million yuan and a change rate of -0.32% [6]. - Total lithium carbonate inventory: It increased from 103,436 tons to 120,032 tons, a change of 16,596 tons and a change rate of 16.04% [6]. - Lithium iron phosphate price: It increased from 3.06 million yuan/ton to 3.20 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.14 million yuan and a change rate of 4.58% [6]. - Lithium cobalt oxide price: It increased from 20.90 million yuan/ton to 21.00 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 0.48% [6]. - Ternary material price (811): The price remained unchanged at 14.45 million yuan/ton [6]. - Ternary material price (622): The price remained unchanged at 12.65 million yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of July 11, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,603 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,020 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2509 was 322,900 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of July 11, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 18,158 tons, an increase of 465 tons from the previous period. Driven by high prices, some high-cost production capacities have planned to resume production, and the in-production capacities are operating actively, so supply is expected to remain abundant [8]. - Import: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month-on-month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 3%. In June, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was about 14,600 barrels, of which about 10,000 tons were shipped to China, a month-on-month increase of 6%. Overall, although the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased slightly month-on-month, it remained at a low level. In May, the import of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, while the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% [9][10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of July 11, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, the operating rate was 61.8%, and the inventory was 39,200 tons, a decrease of 396 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,830 tons, the operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Overall, the production of cathode materials increased month-on-month. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased while its operating rate increased, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate market was slightly stronger than the ternary material market. However, from the perspective of processing fees, there was no obvious improvement in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, and the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent, and price fluctuations were more affected by lithium prices [11]. - New energy vehicles: From July 1 to 6, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 135,000, a year-on-year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.583 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may gradually drag down demand. Although the export of new energy vehicles has improved recently, the expected export to Europe may weaken due to the deadlock in China-EU trade negotiations. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the United States was finally approved, which will eliminate government subsidies for US residents to purchase new energy vehicles after September 30. The price competition among car companies to stimulate consumption may gradually subside, and the inventory cycle of raw materials and finished products of car companies is expected to shorten, which will suppress the production intensity of vehicle manufacturers. Overall, there is no obvious incremental expectation on the demand side from terminal consumption to inventory management of car companies [12]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,032 tons, an increase of about 9,059 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 34,416 tons, a decrease of about 517 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 85,616 tons, an increase of about 9,576 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 11,603 tons, a decrease of 9,433 tons from the previous week. Although the spot inventory increased significantly, the increase mainly came from the outflow of exchange warehouse receipts. After subtracting the outflow of warehouse receipts, the spot inventory was relatively stable, indicating that the demand performance was acceptable [13]. This Week's Outlook - The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may be volatile and weak. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [14]. Industry News - Derui Lithium is advancing the completion acceptance of its new production capacity, which has not been put into operation yet. The new production capacity will gradually be released according to sales and orders, and the initial production capacity and product types will still focus on lithium-manganese and lithium-iron primary batteries [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Inner Mongolia successfully produced trial products, marking a key progress in the construction of the first county-level complete lithium battery industrial chain in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe after improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate [15]. - A lithium ore deposit with 490 million tons of lithium ore was discovered in the Jijiaoshan mining area in Hunan. The project has started the construction of mining, beneficiation, and smelting [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of lithium carbonate futures prices, battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other related data [17][18][19]

宏观周报 特朗普再掀关税攻势，A 股指数创年内新高 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面， 7月关税豁免日到期后，特朗普对多国大幅升 级关税，宣布自8月1日起对包括日本、韩国、马来西亚、 南非、老挝、缅甸在内的多国商品征收25%至40%不等的 关税；对巴西商品征收50%；对加拿大商品税率上调至 35%；对欧盟及墨西哥统一征收30%。此外，对铜进口征 收50%，对进口药品征收200%关税（2027年起执行），并 提议对等关税基准从10%上调至15–20%。整体关税策略 呈现"密集部署+延迟生效"模式，意在强化谈判筹码与 产业回流预期，目前已引发多国反制酝酿。关税扰动整体 有限，降息预期升温与风险偏好抬升主导市场，美股续创 高位，美元指数震荡回升，黄金小幅走强。本周关注美国 6月CPI及零售数据。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 2025 年 7 月 14 日 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound. The main reason is that relevant national departments will focus on comprehensively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, and focusing on accelerating the high - quality development of the industry. All links in the industrial chain are expected to achieve capacity transfer and profit repair. The supply side remains in a tight state, and the demand side shows that the installation volume of photovoltaic ground power stations may slow down significantly in the third quarter. Technically, the futures price has confirmed the bottom support and its center of gravity is gradually moving up, and it is expected to show an upward rebound trend in the short term [2][5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8415.00 | 7980.00 | 435.00 | 5.45% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8850.00 | 8750.00 | 100.00 | 1.14% | Yuan/ton | | Non - Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8650.00 | 8500.00 | 150.00 | 1.76% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9200.00 | 9050.00 | 150.00 | 1.66% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10200.00 | 10200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 10800.00 | 10450.00 | 350.00 | 3.35% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 31.00 | 31.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.1 | 55.2 | - 0.1 | - 0.18% | Ten thousand tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply Side**: The operating rate in Xinjiang is maintained at around 50%, the operating rate in Yunnan has rebounded to over 30% during the wet season, and the output in Sichuan is relatively low. The supply side remains in a tight state [2][5][8]. - **Demand Side**: In July, the start - up of polysilicon has not changed significantly, and some crystal - pulling factories only maintain low inventories. The silicon wafer price is supported by the upstream silicon material price, and the production schedule in July will decrease by 10% month - on - month. The operating rate of photovoltaic cell manufacturers is extremely low, and market demand has weakened significantly. The component market is cautious about price adjustment and prefers to keep prices stable. Driven by the anti - involution policy, manufacturers have no intention to continue the strategy of trading volume with price. The leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to jointly cut production by 30% in response to the policy. The social inventory last week was maintained at 551,000 tons, and the spot market is gradually stabilizing and rising under the pull of the policy [2][5][8]. - **Macro - aspect**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching a 14 - month high. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline further expanding. The decline in PPI is mainly due to the seasonal decline in the prices of some domestic raw material manufacturing industries, the decrease in traditional energy prices driven by the increase in the proportion of green power industries, and the pressure on the prices of some industries with a high export proportion. However, with the in - depth promotion of the establishment of a national unified market, the year - on - year decline in the prices of some industries will narrow. The establishment of a long - term mechanism to promote consumption and the expansion of relevant policies to boost consumption will drive the prices of some durable goods and necessities to bottom out and rebound. The pursuit of high - quality industries will drive the prices of some high - tech industrial products to continue to rise [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was maintained at 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in social inventory is mainly due to the weak demand in the off - season. The registered warehouse receipts at the exchange continued to decline. As of July 11, the warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,200 lots, totaling 251,000 tons. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts cannot be re - registered due to excessive titanium content. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard are actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored is increasing day by day, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened recently due to the continuous decline in domestic production [7]. 3.3 Industry News - **Renewable Energy Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in 2025 and related matters. The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is a binding indicator, and provinces will be assessed accordingly. The 2026 weight is an expected indicator. The calculation of the completion of the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in each province is mainly based on the actual physical electricity consumption in the provincial administrative region, supplemented by the purchase of green certificates from other provinces through the provincial green certificate account. The completion of the green power consumption ratio in key energy - consuming industries is mainly calculated based on green certificates. In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry will be assessed, while the steel, cement, polysilicon, and new data centers in national hub nodes will only be monitored [9]. - **Aixu Co., Ltd.**: Benefiting from the increase in both volume and price of BC components and cost control, Aixu Co., Ltd. is expected to turn losses into profits in Q2 this year. In the first half of the year, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was between - 170 million and - 280 million yuan. Combining the Q1 financial data, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 20 million to 130 million yuan in Q2. The company optimized its product structure, and the sales of ABC components were booming. The overseas sales proportion increased significantly, and the overall gross profit margin continued to improve. The premium of BC products is an important reason for the improvement of gross profit. In terms of cost control, the unit production cost of the production base has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year and is approaching the level of mainstream competitors in the industry. In the future, the production cost is expected to be lower than that of TOPCon components [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory at the exchange, weekly production in main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various industrial silicon grades, etc., but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [12][13][15][17]

氧化铝周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 关注库存变化 氧化铝偏好震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端近期进口和国产矿表现都相对较稳，几内亚 雨季影响尚在继续，但由于传导至中国港口方面 尚需一定时间周期，近期中国进口矿到港情况暂 无过多变化。供应端氧化铝供应较前期有所增多。 上周部分提产的企业产量增量陆续体现，氧化铝 供应有所增多。但多数企业以执行长单为主，加之 部分企业焙烧炉阶段性检修导致提货困难，局部 地区氧化铝现货仍旧偏紧，氧化铝开工产能9320 万吨，开工率为81.18%。 ...