光伏消费羸弱，工业硅再创新低 核心观点及策略 工业硅周报 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周工业硅再创新低，主因国内宏观乐观预期充分兑现， 海外贸易局势不稳定，以及光伏供给侧改革深入落实后中 上游硅料产能瓶颈显现。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复 至6成左右，川滇地区开工率低迷，内蒙和甘肃产量下行， 供应端反弹有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅成交十分有限丰 水期企业复产十分谨慎，硅片减产厂家居多价格逼近历史 低点，光伏电池厂家排产偏紧需匹配下游存量需求，关注 行业供需的边际变化，组件市场库存周转相对健康，原料 成本坍塌后利润较为可观，关注组件企业被动跟随中上游 减产的幅度，整体来看抢装潮后行业增长动能明显不足， 社会库存小幅升至58.9万吨，现货市场重心仍在持续下 移。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号： ...

2025 年 6 月 3 日 资源扰动未能证实 镍价或有回升 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，特朗普关税风波反复，周五再度高举贸易大棒。通 胀数据进一步项目美联储2%的目标靠近，提振降息预期。 ⚫ 基本面：上周，市场流传印尼镍矿审批配额或将提升至3.2 亿吨，导致前期较强的成本支撑预期受挫，镍价于周三创阶 段新低。传闻随后未能证实，主力合约大幅减仓反推价格上 涨。印尼红土镍矿依然偏紧，现货升水维持高位。降雨扰动 未能减弱，菲律宾镍矿发运效率较低。需求上，国内钢企控 产，印尼镍铁厂及不锈钢厂均有调降产 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250530 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税暂时恢复，六月市场风险将加剧 海外方面，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，要求政府于 6 月 9 日前回 应；白宫官员对诉讼前景信心十足，即便败诉亦有替代路径，并称关税谈判同步推进中；特 朗普上任后首次会晤鲍威尔，施压降息未果，鲍威尔坚持政策独立性。美国一季度 GDP 增 速小幅上修至-0.2%，而初请失业金人数显示就业市场有所走弱。美国 Q2 经济基本面韧劲 尚在，但六月市场波动将加剧，聚焦关税的外部谈判与内部法律博弈、美债可持续性引发的 财政担忧，以及特朗普减税法案在参议院的推进。 国内方面，在美国贸易法庭叫停特朗普关税下，国内风险资产反弹，北证 50、科创板 块、小微盘涨幅超 2%，软件、生物科技板块领涨，两市成交额回升至 1.2 万亿，而债市承 压回调，10Y、30Y 国债利率升至 1.68%、1.93%。短期内国内经济基本面延续平稳，边际变 化不大，市场关注重心仍 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250529 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普关税政策遭司法拦截，市场风险偏好修复 海外方面，美国联邦法院阻止了特朗普 4 月 2 日宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越 权，从法律上暂时遏制了特朗普以"贸易逆差"为由的激进加税行为，短期缓解了市场对"全 面贸易战"的担忧，市场风险偏好显著修复，美股期货拉升，避险需求减弱带动黄金调整。 从中期看，特朗普依然有可能通过修法或替代工具重启保护主义路线，对其政策风险仍需维 持警惕。 国内方面，经济在年初来政策脉冲效应减弱后，"量升价跌"的特征延续，修复仍需时 间与政策呵护；展望二季度，内稳政策持续推进（宽货币、促科创、稳地产），中美关税大 幅降级下，出口压力暂缓；然而内需修复乏力、私人部门信心偏弱，导致物价压力尚未明显 缓解，国内政策的下一个观察窗口将在 7 月底。 贵金属：避险需求缓和，金银小幅回调 周三国际贵金属期货价格双双收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.48%报 3284.40 美元 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 海外方面，美国"软数据"近期显著回暖，美国 5 月谘商会消费者信心指数大超预期回 升至 98，摆脱近五年低点，得益于特朗普政府缓和关税威胁后，民众对经济与就业前景的 看法改善；美国 5 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数同样超预期改善。特朗普称对欧盟征收 50% 关税"非常满意"，欧盟呼吁尽快启动谈判；白宫称对部分提供良好条件的国家，关税或将 降至 10%或更低。市场风险偏好得到提振，美股强势反弹，美元指数回升至 99.5，10Y 美债 利率收于 4.45%，金价、铜价、油价均收跌。 国内方面，1-4 月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 1.4%，较前值 0.8%加快，显示工业 利润稳步修复，目前外部不确定性仍高，内需偏弱、价格下行等因素仍制约企业效益恢复， 基础仍需巩固。A 股震荡分化，两市成交额回落至 1.02 万亿，北证 50、小微盘股抗跌，行 业上办公用品、软饮料、化肥农药板块领涨。在资金面偏松、股市走低利好下，债市依旧偏 弱，市场猜测银行卖债调整"OCI 账户"为主要抛压。 贵金属：避险情绪回落，金价走势承压 周二国际贵金属期货双双收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upstream lithium salt supply continues to shrink, but the overall scale is small, and port resources are still abundant, so there is no immediate concern on the supply side. The market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, but the actual implementation is uncertain, and the market has not fully priced in the incremental demand expectations. The spot market remains sluggish, with poor downstream stocking willingness and only meeting rigid procurement needs [4]. - During the reporting period, the prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica under the Baichuan caliber both declined to varying degrees [4]. - On May 20, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to severely rectify vicious involution and achieve healthy industrial competition. On May 21, affected by price declines, there were reports of production suspension and maintenance at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. Additionally, the market was worried about the impact of environmental protection incidents in Jiangxi on supply. Under these events, lithium prices rebounded after hitting a low on May 20 due to a large number of short - position profit - taking. However, as concerns eased, most of the previous gains were reversed on Friday [4]. - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [4][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 19 to May 23, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), battery - grade lithium carbonate spot, industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot, lithium carbonate main contract, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine - grained), lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary material (811), and ternary material (622) all declined to varying degrees, with the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropping by 100%. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.35% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 35,773 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,600 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2507 was 318,500 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 23, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 15,048 tons, a decrease of 805 tons from the previous period. Affected by weak prices, there were reports of production cuts at lithium salt plants in Jiangxi. A smelter under Zhongkuang will start a 4 - month production suspension and maintenance in June, affecting a monthly output of about 1,500 tons. Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. said that the 40,000 - ton salt lake lithium project put into production this year may achieve an actual output of 3,000 tons within the year, and it is likely to be put into production in the fourth quarter. Overall, although there are more definite production suspension information, the scale is limited. Supported by high imports and abundant lithium ore, there is no immediate concern on the supply side [8]. - In terms of imports, in April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The import volume from Chile was 20,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 59.3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.1%. The import volume from Argentina was 6,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47.4% and a year - on - year increase of 101.1%. Chile's lithium carbonate export volume in April was about 21,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.12% and a month - on - month increase of 7.63%. The export volume to China was 15,500 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 32.12% and 6.32% respectively. The scale of lithium carbonate exported to China has weakened, which may drag down the import volume in May. The scale of lithium salt imported from Argentina has increased significantly, but the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping volume to China fluctuates greatly, so it currently has no continuous reference value. In April, the import volume of lithium ore was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The import volume from Australia was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The incremental volume mainly came from Zimbabwe, with an import volume of about 106,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82%. The import volume from Nigeria was about 89,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Although the shipping of lithium ore from a mining company in Mali, Africa, was blocked, the overall shipping scale of African lithium ore is still on the rise [9][10]. - On the demand side, in the downstream cathode materials sector, as of May 23, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 62,275 tons, with an operating rate of 57.3%, unchanged from the previous period, and inventory decreased by 587 tons. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,820 tons, with an operating rate of 46.19%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory increased by 90 tons. The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, and the prices of lithium iron phosphate also decreased. The market expects a slight expansion of cathode plant production scheduling in June, but the terminal consumption is about to enter the off - season, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation can be realized [11]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, from May 1 - 18, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 484,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month - on - month increase of 15%. The retail penetration rate of the national new energy market was 52%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 3.808 million units, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency data of the Passenger Car Association, the sales of new energy vehicles showed a weakening trend in early May, and the year - on - year sales growth rate decreased from 37% in April to 32%. Although the International Energy Agency predicts that new energy vehicle consumption is expected to exceed 20 million units this year, accounting for about 25% of the total new car sales, with high hopes for China's consumption growth, the purchasing power of Chinese residents may be lower than expected. With the arrival of the consumption off - season in the third quarter and the base effect of last year's replacement policy, the future consumption growth rate is not optimistic [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 23, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,391 tons, an increase of about 318 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory decreased by 242 tons, and market inventory increased by 560 tons. Overall, inventory continued to accumulate despite the further contraction of supply, and the scale of resource transfer from upstream to downstream was limited [14]. This Week's Outlook - The expectation of a rush to export energy storage products has not been fulfilled, and the growth rate of the power sector has slowed down. Although the market expects an expansion of cathode production scheduling in June, the pre - scheduled production in May has been reduced, and it is still uncertain whether the incremental expectation for June can be realized. From an inventory perspective, after the decline in lithium prices, the de - stocking rhythm of lithium salt inventory under the Baichuan caliber has not been smooth, indicating that the production cuts on the supply side have not effectively driven down inventory, which indirectly confirms the weakness of the demand side. Fundamentally, there are no factors to boost prices. Technically, on Friday, the main contract closed below the support of the 5 - day moving average, and the resistance level above the 10 - day moving average was prominent. The overall trading pattern returned to an increase in positions and a decline in prices, and trading volume contracted, with weak resistance from long positions. There is a possibility of a second round of price pressure after short - position profit - taking, and lithium prices are still expected to break through [15]. Industry News - On May 22, Rio Tinto was confirmed as the preferred partner for the Salares Altoandinos lithium project in northern Chile by the Chilean National Mining Company (ENAMI). Rio Tinto will acquire an initial 51% stake in the project, and the Chilean National Mining Company will hold the remaining stake. Rio Tinto will provide about $425 million in cash and non - cash contributions, including its direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology [16]. - On May 20, Yantai Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated on the investor interaction platform that its new 40,000 - ton lithium salt project will produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year, and the company will strive to further increase production [16]. - On May 21, the Zhangye Municipal People's Government promoted the investment attraction of a metal lithium project in Zhangye Economic Development Zone. The project is expected to invest 560 million yuan, and the estimated annual output value after completion is 300 million yuan. The project is currently in the planning and preparation stage [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production data of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [18][20][23][27][29]

棕榈油周报 2025 年 5 月 26 日 增库周期过程 棕榈油延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨13收于3825元/吨，涨幅0.34%； 棕榈油09合约涨22收于8006元/吨，涨幅0.28%；豆油09合 约涨20收于7774元/吨，涨幅0.26%；菜油09合约涨114收 于9391元/吨，涨幅1.23%；CBOT美豆油主连涨0.3收于 49.22美分/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated and declined. The macro - situation is complex, with the suspension of Sino - US tariffs, the recovery of US PMI in May, and a stable employment market, but the US Treasury market turmoil continues and Trump's tariff policy affects market risk appetite. In China, economic indicators in April weakened. Fundamentally, global zinc ore supply recovery remains on track, refinery profits are being repaired, and the zinc ingot import window has closed. However, domestic refined zinc supply is expected to increase, and demand shows mixed performance. Overall, due to the fragility of market risk appetite, weak domestic economic drive, and the expectation of looser supply, zinc prices are expected to remain volatile and weak [3][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,500 yuan/ton to 22,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,686 dollars/ton to 2,712.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.38 to 8.19. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 2,278 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 10,700 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.59 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 250 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc changed to ZN2507, with the price rising first and then falling, closing at 22,215 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.27%. LME zinc fluctuated around 2,700 dollars/ton, closing at 2,712.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.99%. In the spot market, the supply was not significantly loose, and the spot premium was relatively stable. In terms of inventory, as of May 23rd, LME zinc inventory decreased by 11,675 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,278 tons, and as of May 22nd, social inventory decreased by 0.59 million tons. In the macro - aspect, the US May PMI improved, and Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on EU goods to July 9th. In China, economic indicators in April weakened [6][7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 23rd, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates remained unchanged. Canada's Ivanhoe Mines suspended the underground mining of Kakula copper mine due to earthquakes. In April 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 494,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.6% and a year - on - year increase of 72.07%. The import of refined zinc was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. The export of galvanized sheets was 1.2901 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.32%, and the export of alloys was 1,281.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 472.07%. Russia's Kyzyl - Tashtyg zinc mine will continue to operate [13] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums and discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream enterprise operating rates [15][18][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that from January to April, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.20315 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. The new housing construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8%. The housing completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [1][4][10]. - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the output of rebar was 2.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, the apparent demand was 2.47 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons. The rebar factory inventory was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons, the social inventory was 4.16 million tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons, and the total inventory was 6.04 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.06 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the factory inventory was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, the social inventory was 2.63 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons, the total inventory was 3.4 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3.13 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons [1][5]. - Overall, the industrial data last week was poor. The overall steel production increased, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline. The real estate continued its weak trend, infrastructure investment was stable but not strong, terminal data was poor. Coupled with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot - rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak, and steel prices were expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3046 | - 36 | - 1.17 | 6951630 | 2902476 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3189 | - 37 | - 1.15 | 2170566 | 1353196 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 718.0 | - 10.0 | - 1.37 | 1542621 | 756347 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 801.5 | - 51.0 | - 5.98 | 2192852 | 568597 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1383.0 | - 62.5 | - 4.32 | 110769 | 56994 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The real estate investment at the terminal was weak, industrial data was poor, and the expectation of weak consumption increased, leading to a decline in both futures and spot prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 10) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3180 (- 30) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3260 (- 30) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, presided over a symposium on financial support for the real economy, requiring the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and maintain a reasonable growth of the financial aggregate. It also emphasized increasing support for key areas such as technological innovation, consumption boosting, private small and micro - enterprises, and stable foreign trade, making full use of existing and incremental policies, strengthening the implementation and transmission of monetary policy, and maintaining a fair market competition order [6][7]. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, the rebar basis trend, the hot - rolled coil basis trend, the rebar spot regional price difference trend, the hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, the smelting profit of long - process steel mills, the profit of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - situation is mixed. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, and there are concerns about US debt expansion. However, the good performance of the US manufacturing PMI provides support for metals. The Fed may release a dovish signal if interest rates rise rapidly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with mainly capacity replacement in Shandong and Xinjiang. The consumption of aluminum has a seasonal off - peak expectation, but the weakening speed is expected to be slow. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME aluminum 3 - month decreased by 18.5 yuan/ton from 2484.5 on May 16th to 2466 on May 23rd. SHFE aluminum continuous three increased by 35.0 dollars/ton from 20020 to 20055. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10875.0 tons to 384575 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 6750.0 tons to 56070 tons. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 2.4 tons to 55.7 tons. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 326.8 yuan/ton to 16670.58 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit decreased by 160.8 yuan/ton to 3627.42 yuan/ton [3] Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton from last week [4] Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, the macro - situation is mixed, supply is stable, and consumption has a slow - weakening trend. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the current range [7] Industry News - In March 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 616.09 million tons, consumption was 588.36 million tons, with a supply surplus of 27.72 million tons. From January to March 2025, the production was 1797.83 million tons, consumption was 1743.96 million tons, with a supply surplus of 53.87 million tons. Guangyuan Economic Development Zone has gathered over 90 aluminum - related enterprises. In April 2025, China exported 52 million tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative export was 188 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7% [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts including LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, etc., which are used to show the price, ratio, premium, cost - profit, and inventory changes of aluminum [10][11][14]