Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on alumina [2] Core Viewpoints - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Category | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3138 | 3036 | -102 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3263 | 3222 | -41 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 134 | 237 | 103 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 370 | 362 | -8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -24.60 | 0.10 | 24.7 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 77746 | 97829 | 20083 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 74.5 | 74.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - The alumina futures main contract fell 3.25% last week, closing at 3,036 yuan/ton, and the national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3,222 yuan/ton on Friday, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - Domestic bauxite supply and prices changed little compared with last week, and the trading mentality of both supply and demand sides of imported ore was cautious. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments [5] - Alumina supply reduction was concentrated in the South, with some enterprises' roasting furnaces under maintenance and new ones starting, while the production in the North changed little. As of August 28, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93% [5] - Last week, Shandong's electrolytic aluminum capacity continued to transfer to Yunnan, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi continued to resume production, with a slight increase in the operating capacity and theoretical demand [5] - On August 29, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 82,810 tons to 87,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][7] Market Outlook - Last week, both domestic and imported ores were relatively stable. It's necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments. Currently, the bauxite inventory at domestic ports is sufficient, and the supply of imported ore in the short term is expected to be stable [2][7] - On the supply side, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South has not resumed, and new roasting capacity entered maintenance last week, with a slight decline in the operating capacity [2][7] - On the consumption side, when the alumina price declined, electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased their spot replenishment purchases slightly, but due to the stable operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum, the increase in demand was limited [2][7] - Overall, the roasting capacity under maintenance in the South is expected to resume next week. The alumina operating capacity will remain high, the spot supply will gradually become loose, and the prices in the North and South will decline simultaneously with a narrowing price difference. The warehouse receipt inventory will continue to increase, the position on the disk will decline, and the market pressure on alumina will increase. However, due to strong cost support and policy expectations, the room for further decline in alumina is limited [2][7] Industry News - According to Aladdin (ALD) research, the freight rate of Cape-type ships on the Guinea-China route increased significantly this week, rising by 1.5 US dollars/ton to 25 US dollars/ton [8] - The Natural Resources Department of Shanxi Province recently released the review result announcement of the preliminary design of the 300,000-ton/year underground mining expansion project of Loufan Bauxite Mine of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, which aims to increase the current production scale from 240,000 tons/year to 300,000 tons/year [8] - On August 22, 2025, Emirates Global Aluminium announced that its subsidiary, Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), would completely terminate all activities in Guinea due to the illegal expropriation of its assets by the Republic of Guinea [8] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month-to-month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost and profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][13][15][18][20][23]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Demand Side**: Last week, the daily average hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons. Before the parade, maintenance increased, leading to a decline in hot metal output. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, with the daily average hot metal output at 2.4013 million tons [1]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased slightly week - on - week but was at a high level for the same period. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased week - on - week and was at a relatively low level for the same period. The total global iron ore shipment was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 0.908 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 561,800 tons [1]. - **Overall Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak. However, the expectation of restocking after the parade supports the spot price, and the futures price is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3160 | 22 | 0.70 | 17417436 | 2897345 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3346 | - 43 | - 1.27 | 5457540 | 1454760 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 787.5 | 0.5 | 0.06 | 1844920 | 410009 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1151.0 | - 64.5 | - 5.31 | 17695850 | 764344 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1643.0 | - 93.0 | - 5.36 | 344282 | 51526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The high - level operation of hot metal and the expectation of restocking by steel mills after the parade supported the spot price [4]. - **Spot Market**: The PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 779 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Super Special powder price was 673 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. Industry News - **Real Estate Policy**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted real estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions for eligible families outside the outer ring and tax exemptions for non - local residents' first - home purchases [10]. - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: As of August 27, 2 more blast furnaces in 23 sample steel enterprises were under maintenance. More maintenance is expected by the end of the month, which will affect hot metal output [10]. - **Local Government Bonds**: In the first 7 months of this year, China issued 3.3159 trillion yuan in new local government bonds [10]. - **Steel Industry Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a work plan to promote the stable growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity [10]. Related Charts The report provides a series of charts showing the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, as well as steel mill profits, production, inventory, and consumption data [9][11][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main reasons were the cooling of domestic anti - involution sentiment, the decline of the polysilicon futures price after a peak, and the negative growth of China's industrial enterprise profit growth rate again. The supply side remained in passive contraction, while the demand side showed mixed trends. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the spot market weakened gradually [2][6][10]. - Overall, Sino - US trade may start a new round of talks. The cooling of anti - involution sentiment and the negative profit growth of industrial enterprises in July dragged down the sentiment of the industrial product market. Technically, there was strong resistance at the 9000 level on the futures price chart, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong after the cooling of anti - involution sentiment. It was expected that the futures price would have a risk of further correction in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | Price on Aug 29 | Price on Aug 22 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8390.00 | 8745.00 | - 355.00 | - 4.06% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 spot | 9050.00 | 9250.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.16% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 spot | 8950.00 | 9050.00 | - 100.00 | - 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9400.00 | 9600.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.08% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10300.00 | 10550.00 | - 250.00 | - 2.37% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 10750.00 | 10750.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 47.00 | 46.00 | 1.00 | 2.17% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.1 | 54.3 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | Ten thousand tons | [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and from January to July, the cumulative decline was 1.7%. However, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries grew rapidly, with a significant leading role. In July, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared with June [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of August 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon remained at 293, and the overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 36.8%. In terms of demand, polysilicon trading was frequent at the end of August, with increased trading volume and significantly reduced inventory. Due to industry self - discipline, the production schedule in September would continue to decline. Small - scale silicon wafer enterprises sold goods at low prices to reduce inventory pressure, while large - scale enterprises increased their demand for silicon material procurement. Photovoltaic cells followed the raw material price and rose slightly. The market preference for large - size and high - efficiency battery cells increased, and the supply of relevant enterprises was tight, but the terminal demand did not improve significantly. The component price increased slightly, with continuous strengthening cost support, but still needed to compete for downstream market orders to maintain production, and the competition pattern was fierce. The distributed projects faced the dilemma of declining yields, and it was expected that the photovoltaic terminal market would face the dilemma of shrinking demand under the influence of anti - involution policies, which would drag down the industrial silicon futures price and limit its rebound space [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of August 29, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 541,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The increase in social inventory was mainly due to weak demand in the off - season. As of August 22, the registered warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,453 lots, totaling 252,000 tons. After the exchange issued a new standard for delivery products, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, becoming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored was increasing day by day. The warehouse receipt inventory had remained at around 50,000 tons recently because the production reduction expectations of enterprises were continuously strengthened under the call of the photovoltaic industry to actively respond to the national anti - involution policy [9]. Industry News - On August 25, the Guizhou Provincial Development and Reform Commission released an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on the "Implementation Plan (Trial) for Deepening the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - grid Electricity Prices in Guizhou Province". The document clarified the electricity volume scale, mechanism electricity price, and implementation period of the new energy sustainable development price settlement mechanism [11]. - The photovoltaic enterprises' plan to list in Hong Kong reached a small peak this month. After Yingfa Ruineng, the third - largest battery cell manufacturer, announced on August 20 that it had submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, another leading company in the photovoltaic and energy storage field, Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (300274.SZ), also announced today that it was planning to issue H - shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its semi - annual report showed that in the first half of the year, the company achieved an operating income of 43.533 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 7.735 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 55.97%. The increase in overseas market revenue was considered an important reason for the profit growth. During the reporting period, the company achieved an overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, China) of 25.379 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 88.32%, accounting for 58.30% of the total revenue. In the same period of the previous year, the overseas market revenue accounted for 43.44%. During the reporting period, the global demand for photovoltaic and energy storage markets continued to grow steadily. According to third - party data, the global newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 310 GWac, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the major global photovoltaic markets maintained a growth trend, with emerging markets performing prominently. In terms of energy storage, driven by factors such as the further increase in the global renewable energy penetration rate, continuous cost reduction, and gradual improvement of the revenue mechanism, the global energy storage demand continued to maintain a high - growth trend. According to third - party data, the global lithium - ion energy storage installed capacity reached 109 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai government has optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents, which boosts the sentiment of the black industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy, thus boosting the sentiment of the black industry [3][6]. - Last week, the production, apparent demand, and inventory of the five major steel products all increased month - on - month. The apparent demand for rebar was still weak despite a low - level recovery, and the inventory increased but the absolute value was not large. The hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly due to northern production restrictions. The spot market was weak, and the futures price maintained a weak and volatile trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3160 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan, a rise rate of 0.70%, a total trading volume of 17,417,436 lots, and a total open interest of 2,897,345 lots [4]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3346 yuan/ton, a fall of 43 yuan, a fall rate of - 1.27%, a total trading volume of 5,457,540 lots, and a total open interest of 1,454,760 lots [4]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 787.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.5 yuan, a rise rate of 0.06%, a total trading volume of 1,844,920 lots, and a total open interest of 410,009 lots [4]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1151.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 64.5 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.31%, a total trading volume of 17,695,850 lots, and a total open interest of 764,344 lots [4]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1643.0 yuan/ton, a fall of 93.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 5.36%, a total trading volume of 344,282 lots, and a total open interest of 51,526 lots [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend. Stimulated by policy benefits such as the relaxation of the Shanghai property market, the market first rose and then fell. Due to the weak fundamentals, steel prices were slightly weak. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3000 (- 20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3380 (- 20) yuan/ton [6]. - In terms of macro - aspects, Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" [6]. - In terms of industry, last week, rebar production was 2210000 tons, an increase of 60000 tons month - on - month; apparent demand was 2040000 tons, an increase of 90000 tons; factory inventory was 1700000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; social inventory was 4540000 tons, an increase of 210000 tons; and total inventory was 6230000 tons, an increase of 160000 tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 3250000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; factory inventory was 800000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons; social inventory was 2860000 tons, an increase of 30000 tons; total inventory was 3650000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; and apparent demand was 3210000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [7]. 3. Industry News - Shanghai optimized and adjusted real - estate policies, including relaxing housing purchase restrictions and tax exemptions for eligible non - local residents [8][9]. - From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, including 53.83 billion yuan of general bonds and 277.76 billion yuan of special bonds [13]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and continue the production reduction policy [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 20 charts related to steel products, including futures and monthly spread trends, basis trends, spot regional price difference trends, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [11][12][13] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil futures and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all declined, with CBOT US soybean oil futures dropping significantly due to difficulties in redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RIN to large refineries and potential policy adjustments [4][7]. - Affected by the weakening external market, the domestic commodity market continued to decline and adjust, with a generally weak sentiment. In August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, while export demand increased month - on - month, providing support for prices. However, after the phased positive factors were gradually realized, market drivers weakened, and long - position funds reduced their positions [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US core PCE in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. The US dollar index continued to fluctuate, and oil prices were also in a fluctuating state. Fundamentally, there may be significant resistance in redistributing the US biodiesel exemption volume for the 2023 - 2024 period to large refineries, causing US soybean oil prices to continue to fall. Malaysian palm oil is currently in a peak production period, but high - frequency data shows that the overall supply pressure is not large, which may support prices. In the short term, palm oil prices may decline and adjust [4][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From August 22 to August 29, CBOT soybean oil futures dropped 3.1 to 52.1 cents per pound, a 5.62% decline; BMD Malaysian palm oil futures fell 154 to 4377 ringgit per ton, a 3.4% decline; DCE palm oil futures decreased 276 to 9316 yuan per ton, a 2.88% decline; DCE soybean oil futures dropped 100 to 8358 yuan per ton, a 1.18% decline; CZCE rapeseed oil futures decreased 101 to 9789 yuan per ton, a 1.02% decline [5]. - The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also declined to varying degrees [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The continuous decline of US soybean oil prices was mainly due to the difficulty of redistributing 1.39 billion gallons of RIN to large refineries and potential policy adjustments. The domestic commodity market was affected by the weakening external market and continued to decline and adjust [4][7]. - In August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, while export demand increased month - on - month. According to different data sources, the export volume from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.9% - 36.41% compared with the same period last month [7][8][9]. - As of August 22, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.4091 million tons, an increase of 0.26 million tons from the previous week and 0.2913 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory increased, palm oil inventory decreased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [9]. - As of August 29, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions decreased from the previous week, while that of palm oil increased [10]. - Short - term palm oil prices may decline and adjust, but the supply pressure of Malaysian palm oil is not large, which may support prices. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy in the fourth - quarter off - season [4][10]. Industry News - Indonesia urged the EU to immediately cancel the anti - subsidy tax on imported biodiesel after the WTO supported several key claims in Indonesia's appeal [11]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry organization IVPA urged the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022, stating that these restrictions have tightened operating funds and hindered industry investment [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST) [11][12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][38][43].

2025 年 9 月 1 日 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 镍价区间震荡 警惕技术性回撤 核心观点及策略 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，报告期内，特朗普罢免美联储理事库克，并表示降 息派将在联储获得多数席位，市场担心联储独立性缺失。但 现阶段联储的降息预期与市场基本相符，并未出现明显加速 征兆，商品价格反响有限。通胀数据符合预期，美联储释放 鸽派信号，沃勒讲话提振降息预期。 ⚫ 基本面：印尼能矿部早期通过了 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc changed from rising to falling. Macroscopically, the market digested Powell's dovish speech, and the focus shifted to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The risk appetite declined, dragging down the prices of risk assets. However, the PCE data in July met expectations, strengthening the expectation of an interest rate cut in September, and the US dollar declined. China's PMI in August improved slightly month - on - month but remained below the boom - bust line. Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates in September remained stable month - on - month, and those for imported ores continued to rise rapidly. Refinery maintenance in September will reduce the monthly supply of refined zinc by more than 8,000 tons, and the high import loss limits the import supplement, so the supply - side pressure eases. On the demand side, due to transportation control in the north, galvanizing enterprises have inventory backlogs and may reduce production or stop work. The consumption of die - casting zinc alloys and zinc oxide has not improved significantly. Social inventories are accumulating seasonally, but the accumulation is expected to end soon. Overseas, large traders are still in the process of picking up and transferring goods, and LME inventories continue to decline, providing support. Overall, the market risk preference switches frequently, and the macro situation is difficult to provide a trend - setting guide. The refinery maintenance eases the supply pressure, and there is an expectation of marginal improvement in consumption, which limits the downside space of zinc prices. However, the continuous inventory accumulation also dampens the enthusiasm of bulls. Therefore, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly operate in a low - level oscillation pattern, waiting for the gradual improvement of the consumption side [3][9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 22 to 29, the price of SHFE zinc decreased by 135 yuan/ton to 22,140 yuan/ton; the price of LME zinc increased by 8.5 US dollars/ton to 2,814 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.07 to 7.87; the inventory of SHFE increased by 8,142 tons to 85,980 tons; the inventory of LME decreased by 11,575 tons to 56,500 tons; the social inventory decreased by 13,200 tons to 103,700 tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2510 failed to continue rising last week, with the center of gravity moving slightly lower, mainly dragged down by concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the political situation in France, and the continuous inventory accumulation in China. It finally closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.61%. LME zinc maintained a sideways oscillation under the influence of the cooling of market risk preference and the continuous decline of LME inventories, and finally closed at 2,814 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.3%. In the spot market, downstream buyers negotiated prices at low points during the week, but the purchasing sentiment weakened on Friday, and the spot quotation changed from a small premium to a small discount [5][6]. 3.3 Industry News - In September, the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat month - on - month at 3,950 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 14.71 US dollars/dry ton to 70.68 US dollars/dry ton. From January to June 2025, the global zinc market had a surplus of 47,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 246,000 tons in the same period last year. The global refined zinc production from January to June was 6.644 million tons, and the consumption was 6.597 million tons [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro risk appetite is volatile, providing limited and continuous support for lead prices. The fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure is expected to ease as more primary lead smelters are under maintenance and secondary lead smelters are operating at a low level due to significant losses. However, consumption has not been significantly boosted, and battery exports face negative impacts. The supply - demand contradiction is deadlocked, with low capital participation. It is expected that lead prices will remain range - bound and face resistance at integer levels [4][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From August 22nd to August 29th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,992 dollars/ton to 1,997 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio increased from 8.42 to 8.45. The SHFE inventory increased by 982 tons to 64,672 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 12,000 tons to 261,050 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons. The spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 rose first and then fell, closing at 16,880 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.6%. The LME lead price first rose and then fell, closing at 1,997 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.25%. In the spot market, downstream enterprises continued to wait and see, with low inquiry enthusiasm. The trading in the spot market was dull [6] Industry News - In September, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 450 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was 90 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 dollars/dry ton. From January to June 2025, the global lead market had a surplus of 21,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 66,000 tons in the same period last year. The US Geological Survey proposed to include lead in the draft list of critical minerals. A large secondary lead smelter in East China suspended production at the beginning of September, with an impact volume of about 8,500 tons [9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium, LME lead premium, primary and secondary lead price difference, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar index rose and then fell, the 10Y US Treasury yield declined, US stocks opened lower and closed higher, gold and oil prices closed up, and copper prices weakened. Domestically, A - shares fell on high - volume trading, and the stock market's risk may be approaching its peak. The bond market is expected to start to recover [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The independence of the Fed is under threat, increasing the market's risk appetite and boosting precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper inventories increased, and copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to factors such as policy independence concerns, economic situation, and supply - demand fundamentals [4][5][6]. - **Aluminum**: The market is waiting for US economic data and concerned about the Fed's independence. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as downstream replenishment意愿 decreases [7]. - **Alumina**: Supply pressure is increasing, and alumina prices are expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Zinc**: Market risk aversion has increased, and zinc prices have moved down. Supply pressure will be alleviated, but consumption has not improved significantly, and zinc prices are expected to have limited downward adjustment space [9]. - **Lead**: Supply pressure is expected to decrease, but consumption in the peak season has not materialized, so the upward space for lead prices is limited [10][11]. - **Tin**: The low inventory of LME tin and slow supply recovery support prices, but limited capital enthusiasm restricts the upward height of tin prices [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are both long and short factors, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate [13]. - **Steel (Screw and Coil)**: Demand is in the off - season, and supply is reduced. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand is decreasing due to steel mill maintenance, and supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and there are positive expectations for the China - US agricultural product agreement. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: There is limited driving force in the market, and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile and adjust [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 79190 yuan/ton with no change; LME copper closed at 9774 dollars/ton, down 0.74% [19]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20810 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME aluminum closed at 2604 dollars/ton, down 1.31% [19]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 3046 yuan/ton, down 2.65% [8]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME zinc closed at 2764 dollars/ton, down 1.53% [19]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16890 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; LME lead closed at 1986 dollars/ton, down 0.08% [19]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 271790 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; LME tin closed at 34510 dollars/ton, up 1.11% [19]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.55% to 3451.80 dollars/ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 0.22% to 38.69 dollars/ounce [3]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On August 27, SHFE copper was unchanged at 79190 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 73 dollars to 9773.5 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1100 tons to 156100 tons [21]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel rose 1390 yuan to 121760 yuan/ton, LME nickel fell 90 dollars to 15190 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 72 tons to 209220 tons [21]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc rose 40 yuan to 22310 yuan/ton, LME zinc fell 43 dollars to 2764 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 5500 tons to 60025 tons [23]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead fell 40 yuan to 16890 yuan/ton, LME lead fell 1.5 dollars to 1985.5 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 4075 tons to 267475 tons [23]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum rose 90 yuan to 20760 yuan/ton, LME aluminum fell 34.5 dollars to 2604 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 3175 tons to 481250 tons [23]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina fell 23 yuan to 3046 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of alumina fell 9 yuan to 3237 yuan/ton [23]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin rose 2030 yuan to 271790 yuan/ton, LME tin rose 380 dollars to 34510 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 145 tons to 1925 tons [23]. - **Precious Metals**: There was little change in the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver on August 27 compared with August 26 [23].