豆粕周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 阿根廷产区偏干 连粕震荡收敛 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆3月合约涨11.25收于1067.5美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.07%；豆粕05合约涨24收于2751元/吨，跌幅 0.88%；华南豆粕现货收于3100元/吨，较上周持平；菜 粕05合约跌20收于2235元/吨，跌幅0.89%；广西菜粕现 货跌20收于2430元/吨，跌幅0.82%。 ⚫ 美豆止跌后震荡上涨，一是美国生柴政策即将发布预期 作用下，美豆油走强提振美豆；二是美豆出口销售进度 加快，对价格亦形成支撑；三是巴西 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The steel market is currently in a weak supply - demand balance, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1][4]. - Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions have weakened. Last week's industrial data was average, with stable production of five major steel products, declining apparent demand, and gradual inventory accumulation. The production of rebar rebounded, apparent demand declined, and both factory and social inventories increased. The inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, with little data change [1][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3142 | - 21 | - 0.66 | 4363197 | 2373958 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3305 | - 10 | - 0.30 | 1840077 | 1453320 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 795.0 | - 17.0 | - 2.09 | 1409932 | 566469 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1157.0 | - 14.0 | - 1.20 | 5090547 | 657580 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1722.0 | 5.0 | 0.29 | 98670 | 39991 | Yuan/ton | [2] 2. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. Seasonally weak demand pressured steel prices, but as the macro - situation improved and market sentiment stabilized, steel prices rebounded. They first fell and then rose during the week, with the overall center of gravity declining slightly. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (- 30) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3270 (- 30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3290 (- 10) yuan/ton [4]. - In 2025, national real estate development investment was 8278.8 billion yuan, a 17.2% decrease from the previous year. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 659.89 million square meters, a 10.0% decrease; the new housing construction area was 58.77 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease; the housing completion area was 60.348 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease; the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, an 8.7% decrease; and the sales volume of newly - built commercial housing was 8393.7 billion yuan, a 12.6% decrease [4]. 3. Industry News - No relevant content provided 4. Related Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the profits of short - process electric furnaces in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, etc. [8][10][12][14][16][21][22][25][27][33][35][39]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai zinc futures price fluctuated at a high level, with the macro - focus on the tariff disputes between Europe, America, and Canada over Greenland. The domestic GDP in 2025 met the 5% growth target, with investment and consumption growth slowing in December. The equity market's high enthusiasm drove the commodity market [3][10]. - Fundamentally, the output of Kipushi zinc mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo increased slightly, while that of Antamina mine decreased. Due to the unstable situation in Iran, the overall overseas zinc ore supply might be lower than expected, and the zinc ore processing fee could not improve significantly, strengthening the support for zinc prices. However, high zinc prices and strong by - product prices repaired smelter profits, leading to increased refined zinc supply and supply pressure [3][10]. - On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tianjin and Hebei were lifted, and the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises rebounded. But terminal orders were still weak, and many enterprises planned to have an early Spring Festival holiday. The operating rate of some alloy and hardware factories decreased, and the recovery of the zinc oxide operating rate was limited [3][10]. - Overall, the Shanghai zinc market faced a game between long and short factors. The weak pattern of increased supply and weak consumption suppressed zinc prices, but the cost - side support was strengthened. In the short term, the Shanghai zinc price would mainly fluctuate around the macro - level, and it was expected to maintain a high - level consolidation trend. This week, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and tariff disturbances [3][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 16th Jan | 23rd Jan | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 24,750 | 24,585 | - 165 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 3207.5 | 3269 | 61.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.72 | 7.52 | - 0.20 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76,311 | 73,151 | - 3160 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 106,525 | 111,500 | 4975 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.92 | 11.88 | 0.04 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 50 | 40 | - 10 | Yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The Shanghai zinc futures price first declined and then rebounded. Affected by Trump's plan to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, market risk - aversion increased, and non - ferrous metals were under pressure. After the tariff disturbance eased, the market sentiment recovered, and the zinc price rebounded. The weekly decline was 0.67%. The LME zinc price rebounded, with a weekly increase of 1.87% [5]. - In the spot market, downstream procurement became more cautious as the price rose, and the spot premium first increased and then decreased. As of January 23rd, the LME zinc inventory increased by 4975 tons to 111,500 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 3160 tons to 73,151 tons. As of January 22nd, the social inventory was 11.88 million tons [6]. - Macroscopically, the US GDP in Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.4%, the core PCE price index in November met expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims last week was lower than expected. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with the NATO Secretary - General, but also made a series of tariff threats. The EU held an emergency summit to discuss counter - measures. In China, the GDP in 2025 met the 5% target, but investment and consumption growth slowed in December [7][8][9] 3.3 Industry News - In February 2026, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 1400 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from the previous month [12]. - Korea Zinc plans to invest $7.4 billion to expand and renovate the Nyrstar smelter in the US, and it will take 6 - 7 years to process about 600,000 tons of waste containing various metals. The project will start this year and be commercially operational in 2029 [12]. - Teck's zinc concentrate output in 2025 was 565,000 metric tons, and the zinc ingot output of Trail smelter was 229,900 tons. However, the 2026 zinc concentrate output guidance of Antamina mine was lowered [13]. - Variscan is promoting the Novales - Udías zinc project. Pan American Silver's zinc and lead production is expected to increase in 2026 [13]. - From January to November 2025, the global refined zinc market had a supply surplus of 74,000 tons, more than twice that of the same period in 2024 [13]. - In December 2025, the imported zinc concentrate was 462,500 tons, a 10.87% month - on - month decrease and a 1.15% year - on - year increase. The imported refined zinc was 8700 tons, a 51.94% month - on - month decrease. The exported galvanized sheet was 1.3891 million tons, a 16.87% month - on - month increase and a 34.82% year - on - year increase [14]. - The Gediktepe sulfide ore expansion project of ACG Metals is expected to start producing copper and zinc in mid - 2026 [14]. - Kipushi mine produced a record 203,168 tons of zinc concentrate in 2025, and the 2026 output guidance is 240,000 - 290,000 tons [14] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, and downstream enterprise operating rates [16][17][18]

铁矿周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日 港库高位运行 铁矿震荡承压 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 需求端：上周铁水产量弱稳，铁矿日耗低位运行，厂 内库存回升，钢厂春节前补库逐步增加。上周247家 钢厂高炉开工率78.68%，环比上周减少0.16个百分 点，同比去年增加0.70个百分点，日均铁水产量 228.1万吨，环比上周增加0.09万吨，同比去年增加 2.65万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外发运与到港环比回落，但到港高位 运行，港口库存持续增加。上周全球铁矿石发运总 2929.8万吨，环比减少251.1万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发 运总量2246.6万吨，环比减少359.8万吨。库存方面， 全国47个港口进口铁矿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, geopolitical tensions initially rose due to Trump's tariff threat but later eased The US Q3 GDP was revised upwards, with a slight increase in initial jobless claims and a moderate rise in the PCE price index, strengthening the view of the Fed staying put in the short - term while long - term easing expectations remain unchanged Domestically and in Indonesia, newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects are ramping up production, leading to a slow increase in supply and a continued decline in the molten aluminum ratio. After a decline, aluminum prices stabilized, downstream consumption improved slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed. Overall, with mixed macro news and stable - to - slightly - increasing supply and consumption with some resilience in the seasonal off - season, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][8] - For cast aluminum, the aluminum alloy operating rate rose by 1.3% to 59.3% last week due to the lifting of environmental controls in some areas. However, downstream consumption is restricted by the seasonal off - season, snowfall, and environmental production restrictions in Central China. Terminal orders are disappointing, and some manufacturers have entered the Spring Festival holiday early. The exchange inventory decreased by 2140 tons. With supply slightly increasing but still restricted by costs and downstream orders, and demand remaining weak in the seasonal off - season, the supply - demand stalemate continues, and cast aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price increased from 3128.5 to 3173.5 yuan/ton, SHFE aluminum continuous - three price increased from 24020 to 24395 dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory increased from 488000 to 507275 tons, among other data changes [4] 3.2 Market Review - In the electrolytic aluminum spot market, the weekly average price was 23816 yuan/ton, a decrease of 486 yuan/ton from last week. The South China storage spot weekly average price was 23858 yuan/ton, a decrease of 476 yuan/ton from last week. Macro factors include Trump's tariff threat and subsequent withdrawal, US GDP growth, and inflation data. In terms of consumption, the downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate rose slightly, and inventory increased. For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price increased, the operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises rose, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased [5][6][7] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core views, electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels due to mixed macro news and stable - to - slightly - increasing supply and consumption with resilience in the off - season. Cast aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate due to the supply - demand stalemate [8][9] 3.4 Industry News - In December 2025, China exported 54.5 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative export from January to December was 613.4 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In the US physical aluminum market, the tariff cost per ton of aluminum has risen from about 1300 dollars in June to 1550 dollars. China's automobile production and sales are expected to exceed 34 million in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for over 50% of new car sales [10][11] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices, ratios, premiums, spreads, inventory, and cast aluminum prices and inventory, etc [13][18][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's speech in Davos and agreements on Greenland and NATO, along with the US Supreme Court's decision, led to the resurgence of the "TACO trade," affecting the dollar, gold, silver, US bonds, stocks, and commodities [2]. - Domestically, the 2025 economic data was better than expected, with A - shares showing a positive mid - term trend despite short - term adjustments [3]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals' gold - silver ratio is expected to rise, copper prices will adjust in the short term, aluminum prices will fluctuate at high levels, etc. [4][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Trump defined Greenland as a US core security interest, reached a "future agreement framework" with NATO on Greenland and Arctic security, postponed the February 1 tariff measures, and the US Supreme Court maintained the ban on immediately dismissing Fed Governor Cook. The "TACO trade" reappeared, with the dollar index rebounding to 98.8, gold and silver retreating, the 10 - year US Treasury yield falling to 4.24%, and US stocks rising over 1% after sharp fluctuations [2]. - Domestic: The 2025 economic data was better than expected, with export resilience exceeding expectations, consumption falling as expected, and investment being a short - term drag. Fiscal and monetary policies will moderately support the economy in Q1. A - shares rose on Wednesday, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 leading the gain by over 3%, and the market entering a stage of volume - shrinking and differentiation [3]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4836.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.78% to $92.95 per ounce. LBMA predicted that the average silver price in 2026 would reach $79.57 per ounce. However, after the explosive growth in 2025, the market is over - inflated. The gold - silver ratio is at a 50 - year low and is expected to rise, with gold outperforming silver in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's main contract weakened, and LME copper sought support at $12,700. Trump's agreement with NATO on Greenland reduced market risk - aversion, causing copper prices to adjust downward. High copper prices dragged down domestic demand, and the global visible inventory increased. In the short term, copper prices will adjust, but the adjustment range may be limited [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24,155 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The easing of geopolitical tensions and the increase in downstream purchases during price adjustments limited the decline of aluminum prices. The position in the Shanghai aluminum market rebounded, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [8][9]. Alumina - On Wednesday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 2,672 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. A Henan alumina plant's maintenance had limited impact on production. The import window remained open, inventory continued to accumulate, and alumina supply remained in surplus, continuing its weak trend [10]. Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main cast aluminum alloy futures contract closed at 22,895 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The cost of scrap aluminum did not decline further, and there was a game between supply and demand in the market. Cast aluminum prices will remain volatile [11]. Zinc - Trump's agreement on Greenland reduced risk - aversion, and the dollar rebounded, putting pressure on zinc prices. Teck's downward adjustment of the production guidance for the Antamina mine in 2026 and supply disruptions from the Iran situation tightened the supply of zinc ore. However, it is currently the consumption off - season, and high - priced raw materials suppress demand. Zinc prices will remain volatile [12][13][14]. Lead - Downstream battery enterprises' weak purchasing sentiment and high inventory suppressed lead prices. However, some smelters plan to increase production cuts, which will ease the decline in lead prices. Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [15]. Tin - Trump's agreement on Greenland reduced market risk - aversion, and the dollar rebounded, causing tin prices to give back some gains. High - level inventories decreased, but downstream demand for high - priced raw materials was weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, with macro - sentiment leading the price movement [16]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated. Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions weakened. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate [17]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures fluctuated. Supply remained high, and port inventory increased. Demand was weak in the off - season. Although there was an expectation of pre - holiday inventory replenishment, the overall supply was stronger than demand, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double Coking) - On Wednesday, double coking futures fluctuated and adjusted. The supply of coking coal and coke was loose due to coal mine resumption, while downstream demand was weak. The supply - demand contradiction was prominent, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.04%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.36%. Argentina's soybean - producing areas may turn dry, which may affect yields. Domestic pre - holiday inventory replenishment and oil mills' price - holding intentions support the market. Soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels [20]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 1.28%. From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month. Supply contraction and inventory reduction are expected to support palm oil prices, which are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [21][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Overseas, concerns about geopolitics and fiscal sustainability triggered a systemic correction in the global bond market, with the US and Japanese bonds leading the decline. The US experienced a triple - kill in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, and market risk appetite deteriorated significantly. The market volatility is expected to rise. Domestically, the Ministry of Finance announced an active fiscal policy, and the A - share market is in a phase of shrinking volume and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remains positive [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals reached new highs due to geopolitical tensions and Poland's central bank's large - scale gold purchases. Base metals showed different trends, with copper expected to maintain high - level oscillations, aluminum adjusting, and zinc and lead under pressure. Agricultural products such as palm oil showed a strong oscillation trend, while bean and rapeseed meal were in a low - level oscillation [4][5][22][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: Geopolitical and fiscal sustainability concerns caused a global bond market correction. The US faced a triple - kill in stocks, bonds, and the exchange rate, with the dollar index falling to 98.5, the 10Y US bond yield reaching 4.3% and then dropping, and the US stock market falling by over 2%. Gold reached a new high of $4783, and market risk preference deteriorated [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Finance committed to an "increasing only" active fiscal policy in 2026, with measures to support small and medium - sized enterprises and consumers. The A - share market is in a shrinking and differentiating phase, with short - term adjustments in the upward slope of stock indices but a positive medium - term trend [3]. Precious Metals - On Tuesday, gold and silver reached new highs. Geopolitical tensions and Poland's central bank's large - scale gold purchase plan boosted the prices. The threat of US tariff hikes and EU's response to the Greenland issue increased geopolitical risks. It is expected that precious metals will remain strong in the short term [4][5]. Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a weak oscillation, and LME copper slightly corrected. Global copper inventories increased, with LME inventory rising to 156,000 tons and COMEX inventory reaching 547,000 tons. Trump's intervention in the Fed's policy and personnel appointment increased market risk aversion, and the soaring precious metals prices lifted the valuation center of copper. It is expected that copper prices will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,500 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. LME aluminum also fell. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased. Trump's tariff threat on Europe increased political tensions, and in the fundamentals, supply was stable, and it was in the consumption off - season. The Shanghai aluminum market is in an oscillatory adjustment phase [8][10]. Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,671 yuan/ton, down 2.91%. The supply side had minor changes, with some production resumptions and planned maintenance. The consumption side had stable electrolytic aluminum procurement, and the inventory in the exchange increased rapidly. Alumina prices remained weak [11]. Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 22,765 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Cast aluminum maintained high - level oscillations based on low supply and cost support. Consumption was weak, and it is expected to remain in an oscillatory state [12]. Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc showed a narrow - range oscillation during the day and a downward shift at night. LME zinc closed down. The downstream procurement was for rigid demand, and the market was affected by increased risk aversion. It is expected that zinc prices will be under pressure in the short term [13][14]. Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated horizontally during the day and shifted downward at night. LME lead closed down. LME lead inventory increased significantly, and domestic downstream consumption was weak. Although there is cost support, lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16][17]. Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and fell slightly at night. The rise in the yield of Japanese 40 - year bonds increased market risk aversion, suppressing tin prices. The fundamentals changed little, and tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated and adjusted. Affected by seasonal demand, market transactions weakened. Rebar production slightly decreased, and hot - rolled coil production increased with high inventory. The steel market is in the off - season, and steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate [19]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. Spot market transactions were 116 tons. Iron ore supply was high, and demand was weak in the off - season. Although there is a pre - holiday restocking expectation, the overall supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure [20]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted. The coke spot market initiated the first round of price increases, but steel mills have not responded. Demand was affected by the off - season and steel mill maintenance, and supply was abundant. It is expected that the futures prices will oscillate weakly [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean and rapeseed meal futures showed mixed trends. Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to reach 379 tons. As the Brazilian harvest progresses, South American supply is increasing. Domestic soybean arrivals are decreasing, and the market is in a state of de - stocking. It is expected that the futures prices will oscillate at a low level [22]. Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed up 1.2%. High - frequency data showed an improvement in palm oil exports and a decline in production. The market is affected by geopolitical risks, but the fundamentals of production and demand are improving. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate strongly in the short term [23][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances cause gold and silver to reach new highs, and China's GDP grew by 5% in 2025. The short - term risk appetite may continue to decline overseas, while the A - share market is in a stage of volume contraction and differentiation, with a still positive medium - term trend [2][3] - The risk of a tariff war due to the Greenland issue boosts the prices of precious metals, and they are expected to remain strong in the short term [4][5] - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term due to rising geopolitical risks and supply shortages [6][7] - The aluminum price is under high - level shock and adjustment due to rising risk aversion and supply pressure [8][9] - The alumina price continues to be weak due to supply surplus and cost decline expectations [11] - The casting aluminum market is in a state of weak supply and demand and is in shock adjustment [12] - The zinc price is in a sideways shock as the long - short situation is in a stalemate [13][14] - The lead price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand [15][16] - The tin price will have a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [17] - The steel price is in shock adjustment due to weak fundamentals [18] - The iron ore price is under shock pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [19] - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to large supply pressure [20] - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term as the Brazilian harvest progresses and the relationship between China and Canada eases [21][22] - The palm oil price is expected to be in shock operation, considering the changes in production and demand data [23] Group 3: Summaries According to Different Commodities Metals - **Precious Metals**: On Monday, gold and silver prices continued to rise to new highs. Geopolitical unrest and tariff war risks are the main factors. The short - term is expected to remain strong [4][5] - **Copper**: On Monday, the main contract of copper futures fluctuated. Geopolitical risks and supply shortages make the short - term price maintain high - level shock [6][7] - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the main contract of aluminum futures closed at 24090 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. High - level shock adjustment is due to risk aversion and supply pressure [8][9] - **Alumina**: On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2733 yuan/ton, down 1.19%. The price continues to be weak due to supply surplus and cost decline expectations [11] - **Cast Aluminum**: On Monday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 22890 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand and shock adjustment [12] - **Zinc**: On Monday, the main contract of zinc futures fluctuated narrowly. The long - short situation is in a stalemate, and the price is in sideways shock [13][14] - **Lead**: On Monday, the main contract of lead futures fluctuated weakly. The price is under pressure due to increased supply and weak demand [15][16] - **Tin**: On Monday, the main contract of tin futures stabilized and fluctuated. It will have a high - level wide - range shock in the short term [17] Steel and Minerals - **Steel (Screw and Coil)**: On Monday, steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. The market is in the off - season of demand, and the fundamentals are weak [18] - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted. High inventory and weak demand make the price under shock pressure [19] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On Monday, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and adjusted. Supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: On Monday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.26%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 2.37%. The Brazilian harvest progresses, and the short - term is expected to be weakly volatile [21][22] - **Palm Oil**: On Monday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.35%. Considering production and demand data changes, the short - term is expected to be in shock operation [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the US inflation data in November met expectations, stabilizing market expectations for the Fed in 2026. Trump postponed new tariffs on key mineral imports, and NVIDIA significantly reduced copper usage in data centers, suppressing precious metal and copper prices and cooling the bullish sentiment in the metal sector. Domestically and in Indonesia, newly - invested electrolytic aluminum projects continued to ramp up production. The consumption - side saw a slight increase in the开工 rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils, while other sectors remained relatively weak. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 736,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory rose by 36,500 tons to 206,000 tons compared to before the holiday. Overall, the bullish sentiment in the metal market subsided, SHFE aluminum positions declined slightly, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the fundamentals and continuous inventory accumulation, putting upward pressure on aluminum prices, leading to high - level volatile adjustments, which are expected to be limited in the medium - to - long - term due to supply constraints [3][8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, last week, the aluminum alloy开工 rate remained stable at 58%. Repeated environmental protection policies and high costs hindered enterprises' resumption of production, keeping the开工 rate low. On the consumption side, downstream customers still had a fear of high prices, but due to continuously high aluminum prices, they were forced to replenish stocks, resulting in a slight increase in recent inquiries. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 110 tons to 70,000 tons. In summary, the cost support for cast aluminum has slightly weakened, and there is increased pressure for price adjustment in the off - season of demand. However, the uncertainty of regional tax policies and environmental protection restrictions form a rigid constraint on the supply side, and macro - favorable factors provide support, so the adjustment range is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - LME aluminum 3 - month price decreased from 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, to 3,128.5 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a drop of 20.5 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 24,420 dollars/ton to 24,020 dollars/ton, a decline of 400 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 7.8 to 7.7, a decrease of 0.1. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 9,825 tons to 488,000 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 49,838 tons to 140,750 tons. The spot average price increased by 442 yuan/ton to 24,302 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 24,302 yuan/ton, up 442 yuan/ton from last week; the South China Storage spot weekly average price was 24,334 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of the macro - environment, the US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared to the previous value. The PPI and core PPI in November increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Energy cost increase was the main driver of the PPI rise. The US retail sales in November 2025 increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth since July last year. The market expected a 95% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged in January 2026. China's foreign trade imports and exports in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and announced five other measures related to structural monetary policy tools [6][7]. - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's开工 rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.2%. The开工 rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased slightly, mainly driven by pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment and the demand for can materials and packaging foils. Currently, the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment cycle has started, providing some support for the开工 rate of each sector, but high aluminum prices have restricted the scale of inventory replenishment, and with insufficient new orders, the increase is expected to be limited. In terms of inventory, on January 15, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons compared to before the holiday [7]. - For cast aluminum, the Friday SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy was 23,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price was 23,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 147 yuan/ton to 2,614 yuan/ton, and that of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum decreased by 93 yuan/ton to 3,743 yuan/ton. Last week, the开工 rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained flat at 58%. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased by 110 tons to 70,000 tons [7]. 3. Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, in the electrolytic aluminum sector, the market sentiment is bearish, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulating, leading to high - level volatile adjustments with limited medium - to - long - term adjustment. In the cast aluminum sector, there is increased pressure for price adjustment, but the adjustment range is expected to be limited due to supply - side constraints and macro - favorable factors [8]. 4. Industry News - In December 2025, China exported 545,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In the US physical aluminum market, as the benchmark price rises, the tariff part of the "premium" paid by buyers has increased from about 1,300 dollars per ton in June to 1,550 dollars per ton. China's automobile production and sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 34 million vehicles, setting a new record, and new energy vehicles have become the dominant force in the market, accounting for over 50% of domestic new car sales [10][11]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, aluminum premiums, inventory seasonal changes, etc., which visually display the market data and trends of aluminum [13][14][16][18][20][22][24][27][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels. Gold and silver prices reached new highs during the week. After CME changed the margin of precious metal futures contracts from fixed to proportion - floating on the 14th, COMEX silver prices continued to rise strongly, hitting a record high of $93.7 per ounce. Gold and platinum prices fluctuated, and palladium prices declined slightly due to the temporary elimination of tariff risks [2][5]. - On January 15, the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum for the time being. Trump's criminal investigation against Fed Chairman Powell led to political backlash, and Kevin Warsh became the top candidate for the next Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions persisted, such as the US threatening to impose tariffs to seize Greenland and the tense situation in Iran [2][6]. - Recent US employment and inflation data were better than expected, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the January 27 - 28 meeting and cut rates at least twice by 25 basis points this year. With the tariff policy becoming clearer, metals not subject to high - tariff may flow out of the US market, but the market still anticipates long - term supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and strategic hoarding, so the popularity of precious metals is expected to remain high, with high price volatility risks [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1032.32 | 25.84 | 2.57 | 87298 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 1031.09 | 28.17 | 2.81 | 40854 | 188966 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4601.10 | 82.70 | 1.83 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 22483 | 3193 | 16.55 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 22641 | 3882 | 20.69 | 538580 | 3156550 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 89.95 | 10.16 | 12.73 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 610.05 | 10.25 | 1.71 | 24678 | 12562 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 602.46 | 9.64 | 1.63 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2342.90 | 9.64 | 2.86 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 469.35 | 9.64 | - 5.95 | 12825 | 12562 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1846.50 | 9.64 | - 1.47 | | | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Price trends: Precious metal prices fluctuated at high levels last week. Gold and silver hit new highs, while palladium declined slightly due to tariff risk elimination [2][5]. - Policy: The Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals including silver and platinum after a national security review, and will seek bilateral negotiations and consider setting a price floor [5]. - Political situation: Trump's criminal investigation against Powell led to criticism from former US economic and financial officials. Kevin Warsh became the most likely candidate for the next Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions included the US threatening to impose tariffs on 8 European countries for Greenland and the tense situation in Iran [2][6]. - Economic data: US employment and inflation data were better than expected, pushing the US dollar index to rebound. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January and cut rates at least twice this year [2][6][8]. - Future outlook: With the tariff policy becoming clearer, metals not subject to high - tariff may flow out of the US market, but the market still anticipates long - term supply shortages, geopolitical instability, and strategic hoarding. The popularity of precious metals is expected to remain high, but high price volatility risks need to be noted. This week, attention should be paid to the initial value of the US Q4 GDP and the November PCE data [2][8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US core inflation slowed down. In December, the core CPI growth rate was lower than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the same as the lowest level in the past five years, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations [8]. - In November last year, the US PPI and core PPI both increased by 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%. Rising energy costs were the main driver of PPI growth [8]. - In November last year, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the fastest growth rate since July last year. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, better than the market expectation of 0.4%, significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption [8]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four - week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two - year low [9]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that in 8 of the 12 Fed districts, overall economic activity increased slightly to moderately, 3 reported no change, and 1 reported a slight decline. Compared with the previous three reporting cycles, the situation improved. Most banks reported a slight to moderate increase in consumer spending during this period, mainly due to the holiday shopping season [9]. - On January 12, CME announced that it would change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures from a fixed - dollar amount to a certain percentage of the contract's nominal value. Under the new framework, the gold margin will be set at 5%, and the silver margin will rise to 9%. Platinum and palladium will also use a similar percentage calculation. The adjustment took effect after the close on January 13 [9]. - The governor of the Polish central bank said that the bank plans to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons by the end of the year [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - Precious metal ETF holdings: The total gold ETF holdings on January 16, 2026, were 1085.67 tons, an increase of 21.11 tons compared with the previous week, 33.13 tons compared with the previous month, and 206.55 tons compared with the previous year. The iShare silver holdings on January 16, 2026, were 16073.06 tons, a decrease of 235.42 tons compared with the previous week, an increase of 54.77 tons compared with the previous month, and an increase of 1662.34 tons compared with the previous year [12]. - Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and other data of precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as their relationships with the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and other factors [13][20][34].