豆粕周报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 进口大豆拍卖重启 连粕震荡延续 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 ⚫ 风险因素：南美天气，USDA报告，大豆拍卖 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆3月合约涨15.5收于1062.75美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.48%；豆粕05合约涨37收于2786元/吨，涨幅 1.35%；华南豆粕现货涨60收于3140元/吨，涨幅1.95%； 菜粕05合约跌27收于2338元/吨，跌幅1.14%；广西菜粕 现货跌10收于2510元/吨，跌幅0.4%。 ⚫ 外盘止跌企稳，市场等待即将发布的USDA报告，资金调 整仓位，目前前瞻来看 ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 1 月 12 日 出口需求改善 棕榈油区间震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连较节前跌12收于4038林吉特/吨， 跌幅0.3%；棕榈油05合约涨98收于8682元/吨，涨幅 1.14%；豆油05合约涨132收于7994元/吨，涨幅1.68%； 菜油05合约跌45收于9042元/吨，跌幅0.5%；CBOT豆油 主连涨1.11收于49.66美分/磅，涨幅2.29%；ICE油菜籽 活跃合约涨21收于623.4加元/吨，涨幅3.49%。 ⚫ 油脂板块整体震荡运行，菜油较为弱势震荡主要是加 拿大总理即将访华，中加贸易关系有改善预期，市场情 绪带动下菜油走弱。棕榈油区间震荡，市场等待MPOB报 告发布，等待利空兑现；另外，最新高频数据显示产量 减少，出口改善，叠加印尼计划增加出口税补贴B50措 施等 ...

2026 年 1 月 12 日 贵金属月报 地缘政治风险升级，贵金属热度难降 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 18 | 图表 | 1 近 5 年 | | SHFE 金银价格走势 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 近 5 年 | | COMEX 金银价格走势 4 | | | 图表 | | | 3 金价与美元指数走势变化 4 | | | 图表 | 4 | | 金价与美债利率走势变化 4 | | | 图表 | | | 3 金价与美元指数走势变化 5 | | | 图表 | 4 | | 金价与美 ...

钢材周报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 螺纹开启累库 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日-6日召 开。会议强调，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥 增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具， 保持流动性充裕。2025年12月26日，越南工贸部发布公 告，对原产于中国的宽度小于1600毫米、厚度为0.108～ 2.55毫米的冷轧碳钢板卷作出反倾销日落复审肯定性 终裁。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量191万吨，环比增加3万吨，表需 175万吨，减少25万吨，厂库148万吨，增加9万吨，社 库29 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand side shows that last week's hot metal production continued to stabilize, the in - plant inventory increased slightly, and the steel mills' restocking efforts were average. The supply side indicates that after the year - end mine rush, overseas iron ore shipments declined last week, and there will be significant arrival pressure in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with port inventories at a high level. Overall, supply is stronger than demand, short - term sentiment has eased, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3144 yuan/ton, a rise of 22 yuan, a gain of 0.70%, a total trading volume of 6567825 lots, and a total open interest of 2367759 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3294 yuan/ton, a rise of 24 yuan, a gain of 0.73%, a total trading volume of 2987286 lots, and a total open interest of 1440895 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 814.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 25.0 yuan, a gain of 3.17%, a total trading volume of 1706517 lots, and a total open interest of 636674 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 1195.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 80.5 yuan, a gain of 7.22%, a total trading volume of 7162354 lots, and a total open interest of 621167 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1748.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 55.0 yuan, a gain of 3.25%, a total trading volume of 158354 lots, and a total open interest of 39551 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures first rose and then fell, with the center of the futures price moving up. During the week, the fluctuations increased due to the drive of coking coal and coke. In the spot market, the price of Rizhao Port PB powder was 822 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 701 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 122 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, last week, the hot metal production of 247 steel mills continued to stabilize. The blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.80 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.99 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 229.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.13 tons [4]. - On the supply side, after the year - end mine rush, overseas iron ore shipments declined last week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463.4 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2742.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 316.9 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 17044.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 322.65 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 336.96 tons, a decrease of 3.25 tons [5]. Industry News - The US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. UN Secretary - General Guterres was deeply shocked by the recent escalation of the situation in Venezuela. The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the US military action against Venezuela at 10:00 local time on January 5 [10]. - The 2026 work conference of the People's Bank of China was held from January 5 - 6. The meeting emphasized continuing to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and existing policies, and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts. It also mentioned flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [10]. - In December 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 10.3266 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 52.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.5%. During the same period, the total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 9.7901 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 7.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 27% [10]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including those on the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the basis spread of iron ore, and various production, shipment, inventory, and price - related charts of iron ore [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The main reasons were that after fluctuating in sync with precious metals and hitting new highs, long positions took partial profits at high levels. Although the US non - farm payrolls slightly missed expectations, the unemployment rate declined, and the US dollar index rebounded from a low level. S&P predicts that by 2040, with the development of global artificial intelligence and the upgrade of national defense security, the global total copper demand will increase by about 50% compared to the current level. If the world does not increase copper recycling and ore mining, it is expected to face a supply gap of 10 million tons. Fundamentally, the resumption of production of interrupted mines is slow, the supply of non - US regions is tight, the domestic social inventory has entered a seasonal accumulation cycle, the domestic trade spot maintains a discount, and the C - structure of the near - month contract narrows [2][8]. - Overall, after copper prices hit new historical highs, the market needs short - term valuation repair, but the medium - term fundamental structural imbalance and the global electrification transformation trend will continue to lift the copper price center. Some radical dovish Fed officials still optimistically expect the interest rate cut in 2026 to exceed 100 basis points. Fundamentally, the strike at Chilean mines continues, the release of global refined copper production capacity is blocked, and emerging industries provide broad prospects for consumption growth. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong high - level shock in the short term [3][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From January 2nd to January 9th, LME copper rose from $12,460.50/ton to $12,965.50/ton, a 4.05% increase; COMEX copper rose from 569.8 cents/pound to 589.05 cents/pound, a 3.38% increase; SHFE copper rose from 98,240 yuan/ton to 101,410 yuan/ton, a 3.23% increase; international copper rose from 87,870 yuan/ton to 90,150 yuan/ton, a 2.59% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.88 to 7.82, the LME spot premium increased from $38.60/ton to $41.94/ton, an 8.65% increase, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from - 190 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 9th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 939,099 tons, a 5.92% increase from January 2nd. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 6,350 tons (-4.37%), COMEX inventory increased by 18,158 short tons (3.63%), SHFE inventory increased by 35,201 tons (24.22%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,500 tons (5.72%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The high - level fluctuation of copper prices was due to long - position profit - taking, the rebound of the US dollar index, the expected increase in future copper demand, slow mine resumption, and seasonal inventory accumulation [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of January 9th, the global inventory continued to rise. The LME copper inventory decreased, the SHFE inventory and Shanghai保税区 inventory increased. The decline of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts was mainly due to the increasing import loss, and the decline of the Shanghai - London ratio was due to the recent rebound of the US dollar [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: In the US, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, slightly lower than expected, indicating a weak labor market but no further deterioration. Trump's remarks on Greenland and the Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts affected market sentiment. In China, the CPI in December increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Consumer goods prices rose, energy prices decreased, and food prices had a mixed performance [9]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The strike at Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued, increasing concerns about concentrate supply shortage. The resumption of other major interrupted mines was slow, and the global mine - end supply growth rate in 2026 will be less than 1.5%. In November 2026, China's electrolytic copper production increased year - on - year, and copper concentrate imports also increased significantly. In terms of demand, traditional industries such as power grid investment, white - goods consumption, and real estate were weak, while emerging industries such as new - energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and AI data centers had strong demand [10]. 3. Industry News - **Mantoverde Copper Mine Strike**: Workers at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile continued their strike due to the failure of negotiations between the company and the union. The mine was almost completely shut down, and the operation capacity of the concentrator was only 30% of the normal level [13]. - **Mercuria's Investment in Kazakhstan**: Mercuria Energy Group provided a $1.2 billion loan to acquire Kazakhmys. It has carried out a series of metal - related transactions in recent years, and aims to increase its financing scale in the metal field in 2026 [14]. - **Codelco's Production**: Codelco achieved its production target in 2025, with a production of 1.333 million tons of copper, a 0.4% increase from the previous year. The company plans to increase production slightly to 1.344 million tons in 2026 [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, basis, spreads, and other indicators of copper in different markets, including Shanghai and LME, to help analyze the copper market situation [16][17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The macro - environment was positive with loose global monetary policies and resource premiums due to geopolitical conflicts, leading to a general rise in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The fundamentals showed a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply pressure was limited as the increase and decrease in primary and secondary lead production offset each other. Consumption was dragged down by the expiration of policies and battery export pressure, and social inventories were expected to increase slowly. With multiple factors in play, the fundamentals provided limited guidance, and it was expected that the lead price would fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 1/2 | 1/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17355 | 17355 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1994 | 2046.5 | 52.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.70 | 8.48 | - 0.22 | | | SHFE Inventory | 28004 | 30111 | 2107 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 239325 | 222725 | - 16600 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 1.91 | 1.96 | 0.05 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 70 | - 130 | - 60 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - After the New Year's Day holiday, the main 2602 contract of Shanghai lead futures had a good start. The stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals rose generally. The lead price rose following the sector rotation, reaching a weekly high of 17860 yuan/ton. Then, as some funds took profits, the lead price adjusted at a high level and finally closed at 17395 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.2%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. LME lead rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the year, non - ferrous metals rose generally. LME lead broke through 2025 US dollars/ton and continued to rise. It started to adjust near the upper edge of the oscillation range and finally closed at 2046.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of 2.63%. In the spot market, by January 9, lead warehouse receipts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were quoted at 17245 - 17315 yuan/ton, at a discount of 10 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2601 contract. After the high - level decline of Shanghai lead, the quotes of warehouse receipts by holders decreased, and more factory - delivered goods were sold. Some smelting enterprises with increased inventory pressure actively quoted for sales. The mainstream origin quotes were at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and in some regions, the premium was 100 - 150 yuan/ton. Secondary lead smelters generally sold at a discount, with secondary refined lead quoted at a discount of 300 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises were more wait - and - see and only purchased on a need - to - basis [6]. - In terms of inventory, by January 9, the LME weekly inventory was 222725 tons, a weekly decrease of 16600 tons. The SHFE inventory was 30111 tons, an increase of 2107 tons. By January 8, the SMM five - region social inventory was 1.96 million tons, an increase of 0.12 million tons compared with December 31 and an increase of more than 500 tons compared with January 5 [7]. 3.3 Industry News - On January 9, 2026, the processing fees for domestic and foreign lead concentrates were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 US dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining flat compared with the previous period [9]. - On the evening of January 7, Fuyang City, Anhui Province lifted the orange alert for air pollution, and some secondary lead enterprises in the region gradually resumed full - production operations [9].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The polysilicon market was affected by anti - monopoly regulatory policies, which may restrict the volume and price of leading silicon enterprises and drag down the fundamental demand for industrial silicon in the short term [2][5][8]. - The supply side continued to converge. Xinjiang's开工率 dropped to around 80%, the production in Southwest China was weak during the dry season, and the production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was stable. The demand side also showed a weak trend. Polysilicon supply entered a convergence state, with significant production cuts in some parts of Southwest China, and the output in December was expected to drop to 110,000 tons. The production cuts of silicon wafer enterprises effectively relieved the inventory pressure, but the overall market shipments were limited. The capacity release of battery cell enterprises did not change significantly, and the second - and third - tier enterprises controlled the shipment rhythm. The rising silver price significantly pushed up the production cost, which was expected to drag down the production plan. Near the end of the year, the demand for components was weak, and enterprises mostly produced based on sales to control inventory, with the mainstream TOPCON182 transaction price maintained at 0.66 - 0.72 yuan/watt. The social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons last week, and the spot market of industrial silicon remained stable overall due to the weakening of futures prices [2][5][8]. - Overall, the sudden anti - monopoly regulatory policy on polysilicon dampened market confidence, and the seasonal off - peak consumption at the end of the year dragged down the inventory removal rhythm of silicon materials, causing the market sentiment in the industrial products sector to cool down significantly. Technically, the main contract temporarily found support at the 8550 level, but the short - term upward space might be limited, and the futures price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data | Contract | 1/9/25 | 12/31/24 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8715 | 8860 | - 145 | - 1.64% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9250 | 9250 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9650 | 9650 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10350 | 10350 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 13600 | 13600 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 54 | 52 | 2 | 3.85% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.3 | 56.1 | - 0.8 | - 1.43% | 10,000 tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro aspect: China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year in December, the highest in 34 months. The effect of consumption - boosting policies continued to appear, and the prices of communication tools, mother and baby products, cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, and household appliances all rose, with the increase ranging from 1.4% to 3.0%. Affected by the rise in international gold prices, the price of domestic gold jewelry increased by 5.6%. Energy prices dropped by 0.5%, with domestic gasoline prices dropping by 1.2% due to international oil price changes, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.04% month - on - month. Food prices increased by 0.3%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.05% month - on - month. Before the festival, the demand for fresh fruits and shrimp and crab increased, with prices rising by 2.6% and 2.5% respectively. The price of fresh vegetables rose by 0.8%, with the increase lower than the seasonal level by 3.3%. The production capacity of pigs was relatively sufficient, and the price of pork dropped by 1.7% [6]. - Policy aspect: The national regulatory authorities clearly put forward rectification requirements, including comprehensively sorting out the coordinated actions carried out and submitting a complete description including investment agreements and meeting minutes. The rectification plan should strictly prohibit the agreement on production capacity, production and sales volume, and sales quota, strictly prohibit market division and profit distribution, and at the same time, prohibit coordination on information such as price and cost. Enterprises and associations are required to establish an anti - monopoly mechanism and submit written rectification measures by January 20th. If they violate the regulations again in the future, law enforcement will be initiated [6][7]. - Inventory aspect: As of January 9th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. The terminal consumption slowed down as the social inventory rose again. The registered warehouse receipt volume in the exchange continued to increase. As of January 9th, the warehouse receipt inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to 10,888 lots, totaling 54,000 tons. After the expiration of the exchange's warehouse receipts, they were re - registered and stored again. After the exchange implemented the new warehouse receipt delivery standard, the current mainstream 5 - series goods became the main delivery model in the exchange. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard are actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored is increasing day by day. The warehouse receipt inventory has remained around 50,000 tons recently mainly because the positive effect of the photovoltaic industry in responding to the national call for anti - involution has strengthened the enterprise production cut expectation [7]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and starting from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled. For the products subject to consumption tax among the above - mentioned products, the export consumption tax policy will remain unchanged, and the consumption tax refund (exemption) policy will continue to apply. The export tax rebate rate applicable to the products listed in this announcement is determined by the export date indicated on the export goods declaration form [9]. - Recently, Jiangsu Institute of China Energy Engineering Group won the bid for the survey and design service of the 1.5 - million - kilowatt photovoltaic desert control project of the Western Inner Mongolia Tuoketuo Power Transmission Phase II of Tuoketuo New Energy Division of Inner Mongolia Company. This project is the third batch of large - scale wind and solar power base projects in the country, located in Dalate Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with a planned installed capacity of 1.5 GW. The project integrates photovoltaic power generation and desert control, using forms such as photovoltaic desert control and grass - light complementarity to strengthen sand prevention and fixation measures, curb desert expansion, and promote the efficient use of land resources, with good ecological, economic, and social benefits. After the project is completed, it can provide 2.6 billion kWh of clean electricity to the power grid on average every year, save more than 790,000 tons of standard coal, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 2.16 million tons, effectively increasing the proportion of "green electricity" in the regional power grid [10]. - In the face of the complex overseas market barriers, China's photovoltaic industry is at a critical turning point in going global. The Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network conducted in - depth research on many leading enterprises in the industry and launched a special series of analyses on overseas markets, focusing on the Middle East. According to the development plans announced by various countries, by 2030, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Jordan, and Egypt plan to increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation to 50%, 35%, 31%, and 42% respectively, and Oman's goal is to reach 30%. In addition, the UAE aims to increase the installed capacity of renewable energy to 14.2 GW by 2030, and Oman has also set a photovoltaic power generation installed capacity target of 4.5 GW. Chinese enterprises have played a crucial role in this process. Incomplete statistics show that since this year, Chinese engineering enterprises represented by China Energy Engineering Group and Power Construction Corporation of China have signed, started, and connected more than 15 photovoltaic projects in the Middle East, including ten "GW - level" major projects [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, weekly production in major production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon spot price, and organic silicon spot price, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [13][14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, the crude oil supply remains loose, and the oil price continues to oscillate weakly. The implementation rhythm of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is uncertain, while the US EPA is expected to release the final rule of RVOs in Q1 2026, providing a relatively clear demand increment expectation. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will continue to increase in December 2025. The domestic palm oil market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the inventory increases with more arrivals. With the Spring Festival approaching, there is an expected increase in stocking demand. The rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and the import window for Canadian rapeseed is still closed, but the global rapeseed supply is loose. In January, due to festival stocking and the expectation of supply - demand tightening, palm oil is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with the price range between 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton [4][50] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oil and Fat Market - Since December, the oil and fat sector has oscillated weakly, then stabilized and entered an oscillating phase. By the end of December, on the domestic market, the palm oil 05 contract fell 94 to 8584 yuan/ton (a 1.08% decline), the soybean oil 05 contract fell 178 to 7862 yuan/ton (a 2.21% decline), and the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 414 to 9087 yuan/ton (a 4.36% decline). On the foreign market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract fell 72 to 4050 ringgit/ton (a 1.75% decline), the CBOT US soybean oil main - continuous contract fell 4.03 to 48.55 cents/pound (a 7.66% decline), and the ICE rapeseed active contract fell 49.3 to 602.4 Canadian dollars/ton (a 7.56% decline). In the spot market, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 20 to 8590 yuan/ton (a 0.23% increase), the price of first - grade soybean oil in Shandong Rizhao fell 210 to 8240 yuan/ton (a 2.49% decline), and the price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fell 80 to 10030 yuan/ton (a 0.79% decline) [9] - In mid - and early December, palm oil oscillated weakly due to the production - demand logic of Malaysian palm oil. High - frequency data showed increasing production and weak export demand, intensifying the inventory accumulation expectation and pressuring the futures price. Towards the end of the month, the export data improved, and the month - on - month increase in production narrowed, leading to a continuous rebound in price. The near - term supply of rapeseed oil was tight, with limited spot price decline. However, the new - year rapeseed supply is loose, and as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports, the tight situation will gradually ease, and the far - month contract is relatively weak. US soybean oil oscillated and declined due to concerns about export demand, the expected high yield in South America, and the slow progress of the US biodiesel policy [10] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - The MPOB's November data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.94 million tons (a 5.3% month - on - month decrease), exports were 1.21 million tons (a 28.13% month - on - month decrease), and the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, higher than market expectations. The report was generally bearish. From December to March, Malaysia's palm oil enters the production - reduction season. With the approaching of holidays, there is an expected increase in domestic stocking demand, which provides support for palm oil prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction process [22] 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.04% month - on - month, and production decreased 34.48% month - on - month. From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased 7.44% compared with the same period of the previous month. In terms of exports, from January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 239,675 tons, a 31.12% increase compared with the same period of the previous month. In December 2025, different institutions' data on export volume showed different trends [30] 3.2.3. Indonesia Situation - In October 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production (including palm kernel oil) was 4.76 million tons, a 460,000 - ton month - on - month increase. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 48.09 million tons, a 4.31 - million - ton year - on - year increase. In October 2025, exports were 2.8 million tons, a 600,000 - ton month - on - month increase, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 27.7 million tons, a 2.86 - million - ton year - on - year increase. In October 2025, domestic consumption was 2.23 million tons, a 180,000 - ton month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative domestic consumption from January to October was 20.69 million tons, a 5.3% year - on - year increase. In October 2025, the inventory was 2.33 million tons [35] 3.2.4. Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - In November 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.15 million tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 14.33 million tons, a 790,000 - ton year - on - year decrease. For different oils, the cumulative imports of palm oil from January to November 2025 decreased 1.22 million tons year - on - year; soybean oil imports increased 1.4 million tons year - on - year; and sunflower oil imports decreased 1.01 million tons year - on - year [38][39] 3.2.5. China's Oil and Fat Imports - In November 2025, China's palm oil imports were 330,000 tons, rapeseed oil imports were 166,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 49,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports of palm oil decreased 510,000 tons year - on - year, rapeseed oil imports increased 240,000 tons year - on - year, and sunflower oil imports decreased compared with the previous year. The total imports of the three major oils in November 2025 were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 4.67 million tons [41] 3.2.6. Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic areas was 2.0777 million tons, a 23,300 - ton decrease from the previous week and a 201,900 - ton increase from the same period of the previous year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.081 million tons, palm oil inventory was 733,800 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 270,000 tons [43] 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - In the first half of 2026, the crude oil supply remains loose, and the oil price continues to oscillate weakly. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, but the implementation rhythm is uncertain. The US EPA is expected to release the final rule of RVOs in Q1 2026, and the US plans to cancel the import of Chinese waste oils, cut the import of rapeseed oil and beef tallow to expand the use of US soybean oil for biodiesel [48] - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will continue to increase in December 2025. The domestic palm oil market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the inventory increases with more arrivals. With the Spring Festival approaching, there is an expected increase in stocking demand. The rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing, and the import window for Canadian rapeseed is still closed, but the global rapeseed supply is loose. The market unanimously expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to accumulate at the end of December, and the release of the MPOB report is awaited for guidance. In January, high - frequency data shows a continued decline in Malaysian palm oil production and a possible improvement in export demand, providing support for prices. The implementation rhythm of Indonesia's biodiesel policy is uncertain. With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, Canadian rapeseed oil may re - enter the domestic market, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Overall, in January, due to festival stocking and the expectation of supply - demand tightening from loose to tight, palm oil is expected to oscillate and strengthen, with the price range between 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton [49][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, at the crucial start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the central bank will use reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently, continue expansionary fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, integrate technological innovation with industrial upgrading, promote green energy transformation and upgrading, and pursue high - quality development. In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, high - tech manufacturing profit growth accelerated, and CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, showing signs of stabilizing and recovering domestic demand [3][50]. - On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remains at 80%, but some enterprises have routine maintenance and production cuts at the beginning of the year. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan drops significantly during the dry season, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia is generally stable. The supply shows a marginal decline, and social inventory is at a high level [3][50]. - On the demand side, anti - monopoly supervision in the polysilicon industry dampens market sentiment. Under the background of silicon wafer price cuts to reduce inventory, both volume and price continue to weaken. Battery manufacturers face increased cost pressure due to rising silver prices and their price - increase attempts are resisted by downstream customers. Component leaders mostly produce based on sales, gradually increasing production cuts to reduce inventory backlogs. Demand for centralized projects shows marginal cooling at the end of the year, with most projects on hold or postponed. Traditional industries such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy face downward consumption pressure. It is expected that in January 2026, the demand side will face downward pressure in the off - season, and the anti - monopoly policy in polysilicon may drag down consumer confidence. Overall, the industrial silicon price in January 2026 is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with the price center likely to move down compared to December [3][37][50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 December Industrial Silicon Market Review Industrial Silicon Futures Price Fluctuated within a Range - In December 2025, industrial silicon showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The main 2512 contract operated in the range of 8120 - 9240 yuan/ton, with the price center lower than the previous month. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and industrial enterprise profit growth remained stable. A polysilicon anti - involution platform was launched. On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remained above 80%, production in the southwest was low during the dry season, and production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu increased. On the demand side, polysilicon manufacturers planned price adjustments, silicon wafer prices were close to the cash cost line, battery manufacturers signaled price increases due to cost pressure, and component manufacturers' price - increase attempts were resisted by downstream customers. The short - term sharp decline in polysilicon futures prices dragged down the industrial silicon price [8]. The Spot Market Remained Stable with a Slight Decline - In December 2025, the number of operating furnaces in the three major industrial silicon producing areas in China was 240, with an overall operating rate of 30.1%. Electricity prices in the southwest increased during the dry season, raising production costs. The operating rate in Xinjiang rose above 80% but decreased slightly at the end of the month due to production cuts by some large factories. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased due to high electricity prices, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia was stable. Domestic production in December decreased slightly to 39.7 million tons. By the end of December, social inventory decreased slightly to 55.3 million tons. Mainstream 553 grade spot prices fluctuated moderately. It is expected that in January 2026, the prices of domestic mainstream grades will continue to fluctuate within a range, and the spot market is expected to operate stably [11][12]. Macroeconomic Analysis In December, the Manufacturing PMI Returned to the Expansion Range, and High - Tech Manufacturing Profit Growth Accelerated - In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1, the first expansion since April. Large - scale enterprise PMI was 50.8, up 1.5% month - on - month, and medium - sized enterprise PMI was 49.8, approaching the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7, indicating accelerating manufacturing production; the new order index was 50.8, showing improved market demand; the raw material inventory index was 47.8, with a narrowing decline in raw material inventory; the employment index was 48.2, indicating a decline in employment sentiment; and the supplier delivery index was 50.2, indicating faster delivery times. In November 2025, industrial enterprise profits decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative profit from January to November increased by 0.1% year - on - year, maintaining positive cumulative growth for the fourth consecutive month. From January to November, high - tech manufacturing profits increased by 10.0% year - on - year, 2.0 percentage points faster than from January to October, and 9.9 percentage points higher than the average of all large - scale industrial enterprises [16][17]. Fundamental Analysis Northern Production Declined from a High Level, and Production in the Southwest was Low during the Dry Season - In 2025, China's industrial silicon production showed fluctuations. From January to November, the cumulative production was 3.868 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Xinjiang's production showed a pattern of low at first and high later, with a cumulative production of 1.9248 million tons from January to November, accounting for 52.03%. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased from the dry season to the wet season. The new production capacity in Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places was limited. Overall, in the context of anti - involution policies, China's industrial silicon supply showed a contraction trend [21][22]. In November, Industrial Silicon Exports Increased by 22% Month - on - Month - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 661,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In November, the export volume was 54,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. China's industrial silicon exports are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia. With the recovery of foreign trade exports and the development of the photovoltaic industry in emerging markets, the export scale of industrial silicon is expected to continue to grow, and the export volume in January 2026 is expected to be between 50,000 and 70,000 tons [25]. In December, Social Inventory was at a High Level, and Warehouse Receipt Inventory Faced Centralized Cancellations - By December 31, 2025, the national industrial silicon social inventory decreased slightly to 5.53 million tons, still at a high level. The warehouse receipt quantity on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,231 lots, equivalent to 51,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.9%. After the implementation of the new warehouse receipt delivery standard, mainstream 5 - series products became the main delivery models. It is expected that in January 2026, China's social inventory will continue to rise [28]. The Anti - Involution of the Photovoltaic Industry Entered a Crucial Stage, and the Consumption of Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy was Relatively Sluggish - **Polysilicon**: Anti - monopoly supervision was strengthened, and a new platform for capacity clearance was established. From January to November 2024, the cumulative production of polysilicon was 1.206 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.3%. The anti - monopoly policy hit market confidence and led to a sharp decline in futures prices. - **Silicon wafers**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 607,000 tons. Facing over - capacity and high inventory, many enterprises cut production in the fourth quarter, and the overall operating rate dropped to about 45%. - **Battery cells**: The price showed a downward trend throughout the year. In the third quarter, the overseas orders of 183N battery cells decreased, and the domestic demand for 210N battery cells weakened. - **Components**: The demand for distributed projects was weak, while the centralized market improved slightly in the fourth quarter. Most component enterprises produced based on sales and increased production cuts to reduce inventory. - **Organic silicon**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of DMC was 2.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The industry faced over - capacity and weak terminal consumption in the first half of the year. After the implementation of anti - involution policies in the fourth quarter, enterprises jointly cut production and raised prices, and the price rebounded to 13,600 yuan/ton. It is expected that in January 2026, the organic silicon market will remain stable in terms of volume and price. - **Aluminum alloy**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.8%. In December, the processing fee of aluminum rods in the Foshan market showed a short - term increase but then declined. It is expected that in January 2026, the production of aluminum alloy will decline slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods will face pressure [30][32][34][35][37]. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, in 2026, at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the central bank will implement expansionary policies, and domestic demand shows signs of recovery. - On the supply side, production in Xinjiang may decline due to maintenance, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will be low during the dry season, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia will be stable. Supply will show a marginal decline, and inventory will remain high. - On the demand side, the demand for the photovoltaic industry and traditional industries such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy will face downward pressure in the off - season. - Overall, the industrial silicon price in January 2026 is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with the price center likely to be lower than in December [50][51].