Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overall, influenced by repeated news and with the alumina supply under pressure and the electrolytic aluminum consumption in the peak season, the aluminum price shows a volatile and positive trend [2][3][59] - There are risks such as Fed policy changes and a significant weakening of consumption [3] Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures: In September, it continuously declined, reaching a monthly high of 3048 yuan/ton and a low of 2862 yuan/ton, and closed at 2904 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 4.35% [9] - Shanghai aluminum futures: In September, it first rose and then fell, reaching a high of 21130 yuan/ton and closing at 20625 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [9] - LME aluminum: In September, it also first rose and then fell, with a high of 2720 US dollars/ton, and the performance was slightly weaker than that of Shanghai aluminum [9] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, and there are differences within the Fed on further interest rate cuts [12] - US economic data: In August, PPI was negative for the first time in four months, CPI increased moderately, ADP employment decreased, GDP growth rate increased, manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined, retail sales increased, and the real estate market was weak [12][13] - European economic data: In the second quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rate declined slightly, the ZEW economic sentiment index rebounded slightly, the consumer confidence index improved, the manufacturing capacity utilization rate increased, and the European Central Bank's attitude towards interest rate cuts was cautious [14] Domestic - In August, industrial added value, service industry production index, and social consumer goods retail sales increased, while fixed - asset investment increased slightly. Import and export growth rates declined, CPI was negative, and PPI ended its continuous decline [15][16] - It is expected that stable - growth policies will be introduced in the fourth quarter [19] 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - Domestic bauxite: In September, the overall domestic mine opening rate was low, and the market price fluctuated slightly [21] - Imported bauxite: In August, imports decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The long - term order price in the fourth quarter may decline, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Guinea [22] - Overall, the price of bauxite may be slightly weaker [22] Alumina Supply - Production: In August, the output increased year - on - year, and it is expected that the supply will still be slightly excessive in September. Some production capacity may decrease in October [23][25] - Import and export: In August, it maintained a net export pattern, and imports are expected to increase in October [25] Alumina Inventory and Spot - Inventory: By the end of September, the exchange inventory increased significantly for the second consecutive month [26] - Spot premium: In September, the alumina spot premium was high at first and then low, and the high premium led to high enthusiasm for spot delivery [26] Alumina Cost and Profit - In August, the average cost of the alumina industry decreased slightly, mainly due to the decrease in the cost of imported ores [27] Alumina Outlook - The supply pressure is large, the cost support is weakened, but some production capacity is in the theoretical loss stage. If there is concentrated production reduction and the consumption in the northwest region increases during the winter storage period, the price may stop falling [3][28][59] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Domestic production: In August, the output increased year - on - year. In September, the production capacity increased slightly, and it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in China and the world (excluding China) will be 362.5 million tons and 237 million tons respectively [32] - Import and export: In August, imports increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, exports increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and net imports increased year - on - year. It is expected that imports will continue to decrease slightly [34] Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By the end of September, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased, the aluminum rod inventory decreased, the social inventory decreased but the decline was weaker than in previous years, the SHFE inventory was flat, and the LME inventory increased [35] Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In September, the spot premium was stable at a discount of 10 - 20 yuan/ton at the beginning and end of the month, and the LME premium was high at first and then low [36] Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In September, the average cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry decreased, and the profit increased [37] 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - In September, the overall performance of aluminum processing improved month - on - month, but was still weaker than the traditional peak season year - on - year [51] Domestic Terminal Consumption - Real estate: The new construction scale is at a low level, and the completion area continues to decline [52] - New energy vehicles: In August, retail sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and exports increased year - on - year. It is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption [53] - Power: From January to August, the investment in power grid construction increased year - on - year, and the order volume in the fourth quarter and next year is guaranteed [53] - Photovoltaic: In August, the new installed capacity decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, but component exports increased. It is expected that exports will boost demand [54] Aluminum Product Exports - In August, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Although affected by US tariffs, it still showed strong resilience [55][56] 6. Market Outlook - Macro: The US economic situation gives room for the Fed to cut interest rates, but the tariff policy is volatile. There are still policy expectations in the domestic fourth quarter [59] - Alumina: The supply pressure is large, the cost support is weakened, but there may be a stop - falling opportunity when the supply and demand are improved [59] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply increase pressure is not large, the consumption is in the peak season, and the price has support, but it is restricted by macro fluctuations and other factors [60]

贵金属月报 长牛逻辑坚实，短期波动或加剧 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 在美联储独立性危机、美国政府停摆、货币宽松 预期以及地缘局势紧张、央行持续购金、投资资 金流入黄金白银ETF等一系列因素的助推下，金 银价格的强势上涨，屡创新高。目前多头资金已 显拥挤，投机资金有获利了结的可能，金银短期 需警惕调整风险。目前中美关税摩擦再度升级， 将限制贵金属的调整空间，预计金银价格可能通 过高位震荡来实现调整。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 17 / ⚫ 长期来看，贵金属的避险属性强化，货币属性正 在回归，金银长期上涨的逻辑依然坚实。现阶段 金银价格仍处于长期上涨的趋势之中，后 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the demand for iron ore from steel mills was strong, with the daily average hot metal production remaining above 2.4 million tons. However, in October, the demand for iron ore will face challenges, and the domestic hot metal production may slightly decline from the current high level of 2.4 million tons per day [3]. - In September, the overseas shipment of iron ore decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level in recent years. In October, the supply of imported ore will be mainly stable, with both shipments and arrivals decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year [3]. - In the next month, macro factors may dominate the market trend. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar, there is support from the macro - side. The supply and demand drivers are not strong, so it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend, with the price range of 700 - 890 yuan/ton [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In September, iron ore showed a high - level volatile and pre - holiday weakening trend. The global weekly average shipment volume increased by 2% month - on - month, and the inventory of 45 ports decreased to 138 million tons. The hot metal production remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day, but the steel mill profitability rate decreased from 62.2% to 58%. By the end of September, the 62% Platts index fell 0.1% to $103.45/ton, and the PB powder spot price fell 1 yuan to 778 yuan/wet ton [8]. - Looking forward to October, the terminal demand pressure remains, the inventory pressure of finished products increases, the space for further increase in blast furnace production is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore increases [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Demand Adjusts at a High Level and Its Resilience Faces Challenges - In September, the demand from steel mills was strong, but the terminal was weak. The daily average hot metal production of steel mills remained above 2.4 million tons, and the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 56.71% at the beginning of October, 19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. However, the terminal steel demand continued to weaken. In October, the demand for iron ore will face challenges, and the domestic hot metal production may slightly decline [12]. - Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates. The crude steel production of major iron ore - importing countries has been poor. In August 2025, the global crude steel production of 70 countries/regions increased by 0.3% year - on - year [13]. 2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Remain at a High Level - From January to August, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. In September, the overseas shipments decreased month - on - month but were at a high level in recent years. The weekly average shipment from Brazil was 6.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.35 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.63 million tons; the weekly average shipment from Australia was 15.94 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.4 million tons. In October, the supply of imported ore will be mainly stable [17][18]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - By the beginning of October, the total iron ore inventory of 45 ports was 140.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.81 million tons. In the fourth quarter, the port inventory may continue to accumulate [21]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory - In September, steel mills actively replenished inventory, and the in - plant inventory increased significantly. By the beginning of October, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 100.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.96 million tons. After the National Day holiday, the inventory decreased rapidly [34]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production - From January to August, the domestic iron ore production was weakly stable with regional differentiation. The national domestic ore production decreased by 1.839 million tons year - on - year. In September, the domestic mine production was still in a tight supply pattern, and the annual production is expected to decrease by 500,000 - 1 million tons [35][38]. 2.6 Freight Rates - In September, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was strong, but it has weakened since October. As of October 9, the BDI index was 1923 points, a month - on - month decrease of 8.9%. The shipping market sentiment fluctuated with the change of Chinese steel mills' replenishment [39]. 3. Market Outlook - In the next month, macro factors may dominate the market trend. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation is increasing, and the weakening of the US dollar supports commodity prices. The supply and demand drivers are not strong, and it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend, with the price range of 700 - 890 yuan/ton [43].

从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 需求持续不佳 钢价震荡转弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 2025 年 10 月 13 日 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 钢材月报 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 供给端：9月钢材供应呈现出高炉增产电炉减仓的格 局。长流程钢厂盈利状态良好，高炉开工意愿较强， 铁水产量维持高位，钢厂日均铁水产量保持在240万 吨以上高位。10月供应端高炉刚性生产与电炉弹性 调节共存，如果终端需求季节性修复不及预期，不 排除新一轮减产的可能。 ⚫ 需求端： 钢材需求旺季不旺。受房地产拖累，建材 需求疲弱。制造业保持韧性，汽车家电产量维持较 好增势，热卷表需同比小幅增加。10月份，随着天 气转凉，工地开工率有望提升 ...

铅月报 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 10 月 13 日 供需边际转弱 铅价调整压力增大 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/18 铅市宽幅震荡 原生端看，内外铅精矿加工费环比加速下滑，原 料端供需矛盾愈发突出。受资源供给有限、冶炼 产能释放等因素影响，铅矿偏紧格局四季度难以 得到有效缓解，成本端对铅价有支撑。检修炼厂 逐步复产，同时部分炼厂存进一步冲量生产预期， 预计 10 月电解铅供应量环比增至 33.5 万吨。 再生铅端看，利润修复后，炼厂复产积极性提升， 带动废旧电瓶需求改善，原料价格向上修复预期 升温。但当前废旧电瓶偏紧的格局短期内难以改 变，且炼厂利润受成 ...

2025 年 10 月 13 日 宏微扰动增多 锌价弱势震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/23 锌月报 要点 要点 要点 宏观面看，美联储重启降息周期，货币政策转向利好风 险资产，但美国政府停摆及中美关税冲突再起，增加了 宏观的不确定行。国内经济面临一定压力，新型政策性 金融工具发力有望为年内经济增长筑牢根基，后续政策 加码的可能性依然存在。 供应端，内外锌加工费分化态势加剧，国产矿加工费拐 点已显现，随着炼厂冬储需求升温，加工费后续仍存调 整空间。同时，副产品硫酸价格持续回落，压缩炼厂利 润空间，生产积极性降温。尽管 10 月精炼锌供应环比 ...

铜周报 贸易摩擦重现，铜价冲高回落 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价主因中美贸易局势有所升级，特朗普威胁将对华 再次征收高额关税引发市场恐慌，上周五夜间海外风险资 产价格大幅回落，此外，美联储9月会议纪要显示鹰鸽两 派对年内降息节奏的分歧较大，美国政府停摆进入第二周 后重要的通胀和就业市场数据或将推迟发布，将影响美联 储对未来降息路径的决策，鸽派官员能否继续维持鲜明的 宽松立场尚存疑，同时打压市场风险偏好，导致伦铜上行 至11000美金后受阻。基本面来看，Teck资源因QB项目延 长停产时间大幅下调今明两年产量预期，令全球矿端供应 担忧进一步加剧，国内精铜产量预期下滑，社会库存偏低 运行，近月盘面维持平水结构。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251010 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙、何天 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：加沙停火协议落地，A 股站上 3900 点 海外方面，美国政府关门僵局依旧未解，参议院第七次否决拨款案，特朗普威胁永久削 减民主党项目，美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布 9 月 CPI 数据。以美联储官员分 歧加剧：巴尔主张谨慎降息，警惕通胀仍快；威廉姆斯则称经济未衰退、支持年内再降息， 目前市场仍定价年内、明年各降息 2 次。美元指数走高至 99.5，美债利率震荡，美股低迷收 跌，以色列批准加沙停火协议，金价迎来调整，油价收跌，铜价受矿山供应中断催化继续上 涨。 国内方面，节后首个交易日股债双红，上证指数站上 3900 点继续创下十年新高，两市 成交额 2.67 万亿、超 3100 只个股收涨，科创 50、沪深 300 相对占优，贵金属、有色、发电 设备板块领涨，预计股市短期仍将结构性震荡上涨，同时关注监管降温信号。假期人均消费 偏弱、地产成交量能低迷，资金面偏松+弱现实下债市小幅上涨，10Y、30Y 利率下行至 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 宏观：国际金价站上 4000，国内假期出行活跃 海外方面，美国政府陷入停摆、9 月非农就业报告推迟发布，截至目前尚未解决，参议 院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁，将接任日本首相，其政策 主张宽货币、宽财政；法国总理提交辞呈，再度引发政治担忧，日元、欧元兑美元贬值，美 元指数升破 99 后回落。海外政府不确定性及地缘政治摩擦升温，推动金价站上 4000 美元关 口，AI 产业叙事进一步发酵，假期期间海外股指均收涨、铜价涨幅超 4%、油价走平。近期 关注美国政府关门进展、美联储官员的讲话、以及海外地缘政治的风险。 国内方面，国庆中秋假期出行活跃度高于去年，但消费增速放缓，跨区域流动保持较快 增长，零售餐饮销售同比上升但较五一假期回落，出行热度与消费动力呈现结构性分化。假 期地产成交整体低迷，同比去年整体回落，一线城市因前期限购放松表现相对坚挺。目前国 内处于经济基本面温和、预期先行的格局，本周关注 9 月金融数据。 贵金属：金银再创新高，预计将维持强势运行 十一长假期间，美国政府停摆导致的经济数据延迟，令资金大举流入黄金与白银等避险 资产。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the resumption of production at primary lead smelters, the gradual resumption of secondary lead production, and the arrival of some crude lead, the supply side shows a recovery trend. However, downstream battery companies have completed their stockpiling, and the inventory reduction will slow down. There is a supply - demand mismatch during the National Day holiday, and there is an expectation of inventory increase, which will put pressure on lead prices. With fewer trading days this week and cautious pre - holiday funds, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly at high levels [3][7] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,150 yuan/ton to 17,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 2,003 dollars/ton to 2,001.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio dropped from 8.56 to 8.55; the SHFE inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.84 million tons to 4.64 million tons; the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 fluctuated at a high level, closing at 17,110 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The LME lead first declined and then rose, maintaining a sideways oscillation, closing at 2,001.5 dollars/ton with a weekly decline of 0.07%. In the spot market, near the National Day holiday, the supply of circulating goods was limited. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and most lead battery companies had completed pre - holiday stockpiling and only maintained rigid procurement. The inventory decreased significantly but the downward trend will slow down later [5][6] Industry News - In October, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 115 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 dollars/dry ton. A large smelter in Henan resumed production on September 26th. In August, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates decreased by 6.51% month - on - month and increased by 30.87% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc increased by 43.3% month - on - month and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year; the export volume of galvanized sheets decreased by 8.35% month - on - month and increased by 1.71% year - on - year [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][18]