1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to close at 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to close at 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to close at 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2490 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.47% [4][7]. - Favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and smooth sowing progress, combined with the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy leading to a decline in US soybean oil, caused US soybeans to close lower in a volatile manner. In China, the oil mill crushing volume continued to rise, the bean meal inventory gradually increased, the supply became more abundant, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed had good demand, combined with the recovery of the aquaculture industry and the expectation of tightened imports, rapeseed meal showed strong performance; the Dalian bean meal had support from far - month expectations and was driven by rapeseed meal, so it closed slightly higher in a volatile manner [4][7]. - Affected by the negative impact of the US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil broke through the recent support level. With the US soybean sowing progress over 80% and good weather conditions conducive to the end of the sowing season, US soybeans declined in a volatile manner. In China, the increase in the oil mill crushing rate led to more supply, putting pressure on the spot price to fall; the strengthening of rapeseed meal, the non - purchase of new - season US soybeans for the time being, and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations provided support for the Dalian bean meal. Overall, the Dalian bean meal may move in a volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 18.5 to 1042.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.74%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans dropped 5 to 441 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.12%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 7 to 456 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.51%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased 52.16 to 95.29 yuan per ton; the September bean meal contract rose 16 to 2968 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.54%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 81 to 2637 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.17%; the bean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 65 to 331 yuan per ton; the East China bean meal spot price fell 40 to 2860 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.38%; the South China bean meal spot price fell 60 to 2880 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.04%; the South China spot - futures price difference decreased 76 to - 88 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 25, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 76%, lower than the market expectation of 78%, the emergence rate was 50%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is expected to be 65 - 75mm, slightly higher than the average. As of the week of May 22, the US soybean export inspection volume was 19.49 tons, and the export net sales increased 14.6 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year was 4433 tons, and the cumulative export sales volume was 4846 tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans during the week, and the cumulative purchase volume this year was 2248 tons. As of the week of May 23, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [8][9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: As of the week of May 24, the 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvesting progress was 99.5%. Anec expected Brazil's May soybean exports to reach 1403 tons. As of the week of May 28, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 80.7%, and the dry and less - rainy climate in the next two weeks is conducive to the end of the harvesting work [9][10]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of the week of May 23, the main oil mill soybean inventory decreased 26.2 tons to 560.63 tons, the bean meal inventory increased 52 tons to 20.69 tons, the unexecuted contract decreased 69.84 tons to 335.4 tons, and the national port soybean inventory decreased 8.3 tons to 675.3 tons. As of the week of May 30, the national daily average bean meal trading volume was 8.258 tons, the daily average提货量 was 18.608 tons, the main oil mill crushing volume was 226.82 tons, and the feed enterprise bean meal inventory days were 5.99 days [10][11]. Industry News - Datagro expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.720 billion tons and corn production to be 1.327 billion tons [12]. - In the fourth week of May 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipments were 1115.43 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 8.96% year - on - year; the cumulative bean meal shipments were 170.46 tons, and the daily average shipment volume increased 3.44% year - on - year [12][13]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean crushing volume decreased 7.2% month - on - month, and the rapeseed crushing volume decreased 10.27% month - on - month [13]. - From May 19 to May 23, the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil was 605.05 reais per ton [13]. - As of May 25, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 257 tons, soybean imports were 1269 tons, bean meal imports were 1732 tons, and rapeseed imports were 632 tons [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to slightly decline to 4870 tons [15]. - Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is lowered by 1% to 1800 tons, and the planting area is expected to decrease by 3.5% [16]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production forecast is 620 tons, supported by long - term weather prospects [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the bean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference of bean meal, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional bean meal spot price, the bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvesting progress, the US soybean sowing progress, the US soybean export - related data, the US oil mill crushing profit, the bean meal weekly average trading volume, the bean meal weekly average提货量, the port soybean inventory, the oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill weekly crushing volume, and the oil mill crushing rate [18][20][23][24] etc.

Report Title - Palm Oil Weekly Report [1] Report Date - June 3, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 51 to close at 3,878 ringgit/ton, up 1.33%; the palm oil 09 contract rose 54 to close at 8,060 yuan/ton, up 0.67%; the soybean oil 09 contract fell 136 to close at 7,638 yuan/ton, down 1.75%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 43 to close at 9,348 yuan/ton, down 0.46%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.32 to close at 46.9 cents/pound, down 4.71%; the ICE canola active contract fell 5.6 to close at 711 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.78% [4]. - The oil and fat sector showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil performing strongly. Malaysia is upgrading its B10 policy to B20, and Indonesia has enforced the B40 policy, which may boost the incremental demand for biodiesel. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production has narrowed, and the export demand has improved significantly. India will lower import tariffs, which is conducive to expanding the export demand of producing countries. Meanwhile, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy remains, which may be negative for the demand of US soybean oil, causing it to decline. The domestic supply of soybean oil has increased, showing relative weakness [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the manufacturing PMI data in Europe and the US have slowed down. The trade trends of major economies affect market sentiment. The US dollar index has weakened in a volatile manner, geopolitical risks have intensified, and crude oil has rebounded from a low level and closed higher. Fundamentally, India's reduction of import tariffs on crude edible oils may be beneficial to expanding the export demand for palm oil. The biodiesel policies of relevant countries still have great uncertainty. Attention should be paid to the evolution of these policies. In addition, waiting for the guidance from the MPOB report, combined with the support of rising crude oil prices and other multiple factors, palm oil may fluctuate widely in the short term [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 49.22 to 46.9 cents/pound, down 2.32 cents or 4.71%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose from 3,827 to 3,878 ringgit/ton, up 51 ringgit or 1.33%. The DCE palm oil contract rose from 8,006 to 8,060 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan or 0.67%. The DCE soybean oil contract fell from 7,774 to 7,638 yuan/ton, down 136 yuan or 1.75%. The CZCE rapeseed oil contract fell from 9,391 to 9,348 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan or 0.46%. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose from 8,600 to 8,630 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.35%. The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao fell from 8,030 to 7,870 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan or 1.99%. The spot price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fell from 9,610 to 9,560 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.52% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - According to SPPOMA data, from May 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia decreased by 1.06%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.34%, and palm oil production increased by 0.73%. According to MPOA data, from May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.51% compared with the same period last month. Among them, the production in the Malay Peninsula increased by 4.09%, the production in Sabah increased by 4.52%, the production in Sarawak decreased by 2.15%, and the production in Borneo increased by 2.75% [8]. - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31, 2025, were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase compared with the same period last month. According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil product exports from May 1 - 25, 2025, were 947,248 tons, a 34.71% increase compared with the same period last month. According to AmSpec Agri data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 25, 2025, were 991,702 tons, a 7.34% increase compared with the same period last month [8][9]. - Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to $856.38 per ton. Under the new reference price, the export tariff for crude palm oil in June will be $52 per ton, lower than $74 per ton last month [9]. - Malaysia will increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20. Currently, Indonesia, the world's largest palm oil producer, has implemented a mandatory B40 blending plan and is considering further increasing it to B50 [9]. - The White House is considering a plan to clear the backlog of small refinery biofuel exemptions, and the US renewable fuel credit has decreased by 4%. In March 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.39 million tons, exports (including refined palm oil products) were 2.88 million tons, higher than 2.56 million tons in the same period last year, and the palm oil inventory at the end of March was 2.04 million tons, down from 2.25 million tons last month [10]. - India will halve the basic import tariff on crude edible oils to 10%, effectively reducing the total import tariff on these three oils from 27.5% to 16.5% [10]. - As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.0067 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.0809 million tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 0.6972 million tons, an increase of 0.0409 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 0.2182 million tons compared with the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 0.3387 million tons, a decrease of 0.021 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 0.0573 million tons compared with the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.7659 million tons, a decrease of 0.0266 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.3564 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 13,400 tons, down from 36,420 tons the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 593 tons, up from 504 tons the previous week [11]. Industry News - In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to Algeria increased by nearly 82% to about 79,000 tons. Algeria's expanding food processing industry may drive future demand [12]. - Malaysia's Plantation and Commodities Ministry will explain its sustainable palm oil practices to EU representatives. The EU delegation is expected to visit Malaysia in September and October [12]. - Malaysia's Commodities Minister is concerned about the EU classifying the country as a "standard risk" country under the new EUDR, stating that the classification is based on old data. The MPOA CEO previously said that this classification may exclude palm oil producers, especially small farmers, from the EU market [13]. - Sarawak has produced 4.85 million tons of fresh oil palm fruit bunches, an 8.6% increase compared with the same period last year. The production of crude palm oil has also increased by 3.7% to 0.91 million tons [14]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis differences of soybean oil and palm oil, the spreads between different oil contracts, the import profit of palm oil, the monthly inventory, production, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils [15][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall industrial data last week was average, with the apparent demand for steel increasing month-on-month and inventory declining. However, due to the upcoming national high school entrance examination and college entrance examination, construction in many cities was affected, weakening spot demand. The terminal real estate market was a drag, and combined with the seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the impact of tariffs on hot-rolled coil exports, steel demand was weak. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan, a decline of 0.64%, a total trading volume of 9,514,050 lots, and a total open interest of 3,170,785 lots [2] - SHFE hot-rolled coil had a closing price of 3076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan, a decline of 1.13%, a total trading volume of 3,363,117 lots, and a total open interest of 1,552,234 lots [2] - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 702.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5 yuan, an increase of 0.50%, a total trading volume of 2,120,072 lots, and a total open interest of 716,254 lots [2] - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 726.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.5 yuan, a decline of 9.19%, a total trading volume of 3,455,596 lots, and a total open interest of 634,111 lots [2] - DCE coke had a closing price of 1308.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan, a decline of 4.11%, a total trading volume of 134,599 lots, and a total open interest of 59,538 lots [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated weakly, the market sentiment was poor, and both futures and spot prices declined in resonance. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2890 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar quote was 3120 (-60) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3170 (-90) yuan/ton [4] - Macroscopically, the plenary meeting of the Expert Consultation Group of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission was held in Beijing. The US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's behavior, policies, and practices in technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation [4] - Industrially, last week's rebar production was 2.26 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 60,000 tons, apparent demand was 2.49 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons, rebar mill inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, social inventory was 3.95 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons, and total inventory was 5.81 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons, mill inventory was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons, social inventory was 2.58 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons, total inventory was 3.33 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, and apparent demand was 3.27 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons [5] Industry News - The US Trade Representative's Office extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's behavior, policies, and practices in technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [6][7] - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than from January to March. Among them, the steel industry's profit from January to April was 16.92 billion yuan [10] - The US Federal Court on May 28, 2025, blocked the tariff policy announced by former President Trump on April 2, 2025, and ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US was an overstep of authority [10] - The plenary meeting of the Expert Consultation Group of the State Council's Anti-Monopoly and Anti-Unfair Competition Commission was held in Beijing, emphasizing key tasks such as accelerating the construction of a unified national market, comprehensively rectifying "involutionary" competition, and strengthening competition supervision and law enforcement [10] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, smelting profits of long-process steel mills, short-process electric furnace profits in the East China region, blast furnace operating rates of 247 national steel mills, daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills, rebar and hot-rolled coil production, social and mill inventories, total inventories, and apparent consumption [8][11][13]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to the smallest increase in the US core PCE in over four years. Concerns over tariffs have resurfaced, and the market's risk appetite is cautious. [3][4][11] - In May, the monthly output of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, slightly lower than expected. However, the supply is expected to recover strongly in June, with an estimated increase to 590,200 tons. The demand side shows strong resilience during the off - season, but there is a lack of continuous new export orders. [4][11][14] - Overall, the strong current fundamentals persist, and the inventory inflection point has yet to arrive, causing the decline in zinc prices to be impeded. However, with the strong recovery of refined zinc supply in June and the expected seasonal decline in consumption, the supply - demand balance is tilting marginally, and a bearish view on zinc prices is maintained. [4][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - The closing price of SHFE zinc on May 24 was 22,185 yuan/ton, and on June 2, it was 22,225 yuan/ton, with an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc on May 24 was 2,712.5 dollars/ton, and on June 2, it was 2,693 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 19.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.18 to 8.25. [5] - The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1,763 tons, the inventory of LME decreased by 15,350 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. [5] 2. Market Review - The main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2507, rose rapidly on Monday evening last week due to rumors of an extended maintenance at a large smelter in Guangxi. However, the actual impact was lower than expected, and the price gave back its gains, ending at 22,225 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.05%. [6] - LME zinc's price center slightly moved up along the 5 - day moving average, but faced significant pressure from the 20 - day moving average, ending at 2,629.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.06%. It stabilized and rebounded weakly on June 2. [6] - In the spot market, the supply of goods remained tight, and traders held up prices. The spot premium increased slightly in the first half of the week but stabilized in the second half as downstream procurement declined. [7] - As of May 30, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 14,350 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,763 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons. [8] - In terms of macro - factors, the US Federal Court initially blocked Trump's tariff policy, but the decision was later suspended. The Fed is cautious about rate cuts, and the market still anticipates a rate cut in September. Trump plans to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4. The US has extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31. [9] - In China, the profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 3% year - on - year in April. The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. [10] 3. Industry News - As of the week ending May 30, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,600 yuan/metal ton and 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/metal ton and no change for the latter. [13] - The refined zinc output in May was 549,400 tons, slightly lower than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The output in June is expected to be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.43%. [14] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, and downstream enterprise operating rates. [16][17][24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas shipment volume of iron ore decreased week - on - week last week but remained at the highest level in the same period of the past three years, while the arrival volume increased week - on - week. On the demand side, due to the increase in furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season of steel mills recently, the molten iron output continued to decline. As the demand for steel products entered the off - season and the molten iron output decreased, it is expected that iron ore will fluctuate weakly [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2961 | - 19 | - 0.64 | 9514050 | 3170785 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3076 | - 35 | - 1.13 | 3363117 | 1552234 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 702.0 | 3.5 | 0.50 | 2120072 | 716254 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 726.0 | - 73.5 | - 9.19 | 3455596 | 634111 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1308.0 | - 56.0 | - 4.11 | 134599 | 59538 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Recently, due to the increase in furnace shutdown and maintenance during the off - season of steel mills, the molten iron output continued to decline. Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.22 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.52 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.06 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 60,800 tons [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased week - on - week but was at the highest level in the same period of the past three years, and the arrival volume increased week - on - week. The total global iron ore shipment volume last week was 3.1887 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 159,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,500 tons. The total Australian shipment volume was 2.0132 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,500 tons, among which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.7812 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 146,200 tons. The total Brazilian shipment volume was 776,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons. The iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.7292 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,100 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 1.9708 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 143,100 tons, among which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.7425 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,500 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 758,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14.46958 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122,250 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 338,780 tons, a decrease of 4,410 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - On the 25th local time, US President Trump said that the EU requested to extend the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9th, and he had agreed to this request. Trump said that the conversation with the EU on tariff issues was "very pleasant." On the 23rd, Trump posted on social media that he proposed to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting from June 1st [9]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points faster than that from January to March. Among them, the steel industry made a profit of 1.692 billion yuan from January to April [9]. - The US Federal Court on May 28th local time blocked the tariff policy announced by US President Trump on April 2nd (Liberation Day) from taking effect and ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports than imports to the US exceeded his authority [9]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the iron and steel industry, including the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the basis trends, steel mill profit situations, steel production and inventory data, and iron ore shipment, arrival, and inventory data [8][10][12][14].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The macro - risk preference is under pressure, and the fundamentals remain weak. The output of primary lead will decrease slightly month - on - month, but the output of secondary lead smelters will recover, with a significant expected month - on - month increase. The supply pressure will increase marginally. The consumption side remains in the off - season, and due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, some enterprises are on vacation. There is a mismatch between supply and demand, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. However, the cost support is solid, and there may be fluctuations near the lower edge of the shock box [3][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From May 26th to June 2nd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 16,795 yuan/ton to 16,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 1,994 dollars/ton to 1,981 dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.42 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,928 tons to 46,500 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 9,875 tons to 284,150 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.09 million tons to 4.94 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 continued to decline in a volatile manner, breaking through the lower edge of the shock box on Thursday night and ending at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.42%. The LME lead price fluctuated sideways, ending at 1,963.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.53%. In the spot market, on May 30th, the price of lead in the Shanghai market was 16,535 - 16,565 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506/2507 contract. Downstream enterprises were mostly on the sidelines, with some willing to buy at low prices, while others had no purchasing plans due to the upcoming holiday or a pessimistic outlook on the market [5] Industry News - As of the week of May 30th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 35 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month. In May, the refined lead output was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, with a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is expected that the output in June will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. The output of secondary refined lead in May was 222,500 tons, far lower than expected, with a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. It is expected that the output in June will recover to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, output, social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff policy remains highly uncertain, and the weak US economic and employment data lead to unclear demand and interest - rate cut expectations. There are also fiscal concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds, which will intensify macro - market volatility [2][7]. - Fundamentally, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream consumption has certain resilience. With production based on sales, consumption remains stable, and there are no significant contradictions between supply and demand for the time being [2][7]. - Given the macro - uncertainty and stable fundamentals, the aluminum price is expected to continue to show a range - bound performance [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price decreased from 2466 yuan/ton on May 23, 2025, to 2448.5 yuan/ton on May 30, 2025, a drop of 17.5 yuan/ton [3]. - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price decreased from 20055 dollars/ton to 19925 dollars/ton, a decline of 130 dollars/ton [3]. - The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 14375 tons to 372525 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 6603 tons to 51819 tons [3]. - The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost increased by 316.6 yuan/ton to 16987.23 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit decreased by 300.6 yuan/ton to 3326.77 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot aluminum was 20298 yuan/ton, an increase of 166 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot aluminum was 20186 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The macro - market is affected by Trump's uncertain tariff policy, weak US economic and employment data, and fiscal concerns about US Treasury bonds. The fundamentals show stable supply and resilient consumption, and the aluminum price is expected to range - bound [7]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that the casting aluminum alloy futures would be launched on June 10, 2025 [8]. - On May 14, 2025, the environmental impact report of the second - phase 400,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project of Xinjiang Qiya Aluminum Power Co., Ltd. was approved [8]. 3.5 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum current - month to continuous - one inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, physical - trade seasonal spot premium, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal changes, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal changes [9][10][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices maintained high-level fluctuations. Trump's tariff policy was inconsistent, increasing market uncertainty and raising investors' risk aversion, which limited the decline of gold prices [3][6]. - The US International Trade Court ruled that part of Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate one-day halt to tariff collection. However, the Federal Appellate Court temporarily restored Trump's most comprehensive tariff policy last Thursday. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's $1.4 trillion global tariff case. If the Biden-era standard is continued, Trump's taxing power will be historically restricted; if the president's direct authorization and national security reasons are recognized, the risk of a global trade war and economic uncertainty may continue [3][6]. - The US April PCE data released last Friday was lower than expected. After the data release, traders still bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in September [3][7]. - Geopolitically, the second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 ended. Media reported that there were significant differences between the two sides on the ceasefire conditions [3][8]. - Currently, Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, especially the trade negotiations between the US and Europe are highly uncertain. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are still high. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [3][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 771.80 | -5.50 | -0.71 | 181,246 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 768.02 | -0.87 | -0.11 | 47,430 | 205,424 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3313.10 | -44.60 | -1.33 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8218 | -62 | -0.75 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 8192 | -19 | -0.23 | 379,350 | 3,425,600 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.08 | -0.56 | -1.68 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, precious metal prices maintained high-level fluctuations. Trump's tariff policy was inconsistent, increasing market uncertainty and raising investors' risk aversion, which limited the decline of gold prices [6]. - The US International Trade Court ruled that part of Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority and ordered an immediate one-day halt to tariff collection. However, the Federal Appellate Court temporarily restored Trump's most comprehensive tariff policy last Thursday. The US Supreme Court is about to rule on Trump's $1.4 trillion global tariff case. If the Biden-era standard is continued, Trump's taxing power will be historically restricted; if the president's direct authorization and national security reasons are recognized, the risk of a global trade war and economic uncertainty may continue [6]. - On May 30, Trump announced raising the tariff on imported steel from 25% to 50%. On May 31, the European Commission expressed regret over the US's decision to raise tariffs on imported steel and aluminum and stated that the EU was prepared to take countermeasures. If a mutually acceptable solution cannot be reached, the EU's existing and additional measures will automatically take effect on July 14 or earlier if necessary. The first meeting between the leaders of the US and Germany on June 5 may lead to Germany being "ambushed." The escalation of the trade dispute between the US and Germany may impact European exporters, especially in the automotive and machinery manufacturing industries, and also affect the business layout of US technology companies in Europe [7]. - The US April PCE data released last Friday was lower than expected. After the data release, traders still bet that the Fed would cut interest rates in September [3][7]. - The minutes of the Fed's meeting from May 6 - 7 showed that Fed policymakers generally believed that the uncertainty facing the economy was higher than before. They were cautious about interest rate cuts and preferred to wait for the impact of Trump's tariff policies to become clearer before taking action. Moreover, almost all policymakers expressed concerns about the long-term inflationary impact of tariffs, which weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [7]. - Geopolitically, the second round of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on June 2 ended. The Russian delegation was satisfied with the results of the second - round negotiations and submitted a peace memorandum to Ukraine. Ukraine demanded an unconditional ceasefire in the airspace, sea area, and on land for at least 30 days. There is a possibility of a meeting between the leaders of the two countries in Istanbul, but it is too early to discuss the meeting time. Media reported that there were significant differences between the two sides on the ceasefire conditions [8][9]. - Currently, Trump's tariff policy remains inconsistent, especially the trade negotiations between the US and Europe are highly uncertain. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are still high. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations. It is expected that the gold price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term [9]. - This week, key data to watch include the US May non - farm payrolls data, ADP data, May ISM non - manufacturing index, and the eurozone April PPI data. In terms of events, pay attention to Fed Chairman Powell's speech and the eurozone central bank's interest rate decision [9]. 3. Important Data Information - The US April core PCE price index rose 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%, the smallest increase in more than four years. The "super core inflation indicator" - the core service cost excluding housing and energy - also fell to a four - year low and had its first month - on - month decline since April 2020. It is expected that as the impact of tariffs becomes apparent, the growth rate of commodity prices will accelerate in May, especially in June [10]. - The revised value of the US first - quarter GDP shrank 0.2% on an annualized basis, slightly better than the previously announced initial value of a 0.3% contraction, but still indicating that the US economy contracted at the beginning of the year. The growth rate of consumer spending was significantly revised down, reaching the weakest growth rate in nearly two years. Corporate profits plunged 2.9%, the largest decline since 2020. The core PCE was slightly revised down to 3.4% [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week surged by 14,000 to 240,000, reaching the highest level since November 2021. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week increased by 26,000 to 1.919 million, also hitting the highest level since November 2021 [10]. - The US April durable goods orders plunged 6.3% month - on - month, and the core capital goods orders had the largest decline since October last year [10]. - French inflation unexpectedly fell to a five - year low, and the probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in June soared [10]. - In April, the US commodity import volume decreased to $276.097 billion, a month - on - month plunge of 19.8%, the largest decline on record. This led to a narrowing of the trade deficit to $87.6 billion, far lower than the market expectation of $143 billion [11]. - Data showed that in April, Switzerland's gold imports from the US rose to 111.7 tons, the highest monthly level since at least 2012 [11]. - On May 30, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government published the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in the Gazette, meaning that the ordinance has officially become law, further improving Hong Kong's digital asset activity regulatory framework [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - **Table 2: Changes in Precious Metal ETF Holdings (in tons)** | ETF | Gold Total Holdings | 2025/5/30 | 2025/5/23 | 2025/5/16 | 2024/5/9 | Change from Last Week | Change from Last Month | Change from Last Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | - | 930.20 | 922.46 | 944.26 | 832.21 | 7.74 | -14.06 | 97.99 | | Ishares | Silver Holdings | 14303.75 | 14217.50 | 14015.31 | 12869.86 | 86.25 | 288.44 | 1433.89 | [12][13] - **Table 3: Changes in CFTC Non - commercial Positions** | Gold Futures | Non - commercial Long | Non - commercial Short | Non - commercial Net Long | Change from Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 27 | 234087 | 59903 | 174184 | 10203 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 238062 | 74081 | 163981 | 2772 | | 2025 - 05 - 13 | 238191 | 76982 | 161209 | -1288 | | 2025 - 05 - 06 | 237445 | 74948 | 162497 | - | | Silver Futures | Non - commercial Long | Non - commercial Short | Non - commercial Net Long | Change from Last Week | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 73240 | 20228 | 53012 | 2970 | | 2025 - 05 - 13 | 70891 | 20849 | 50042 | 2288 | | 2025 - 05 - 06 | 67944 | 20190 | 47754 | -1498 | | 2025 - 04 - 29 | 70335 | 21083 | 49252 | - | [14] - There are also multiple data charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, price differences, and ratios of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metal prices and various economic indicators such as the US inflation rate, dollar index, and Fed's balance sheet size [15 - 41].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 6 月 3 日 成本支撑与复产博弈 氧化铝震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端几内亚矿业和地质部长在国家电视台上公开 宣布将撤销几内亚129家矿业公司的勘探许可证， 其中涉及7个铝土矿项目，本次撤销暂时对在采矿 山没有直接影响，不过几内亚雨季临近，矿石供应 或有季节性减少。供应端当前开工产能较上周并 未明显增量，但随着氧化铝价格上涨利润增加，企 业生 ...

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 6 月 3 日 缺乏提涨驱动 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 锂价弱势震荡运行 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面方面：锂价屡创新低，上游锂盐厂停减产信息频出， 高频周产数据连续下滑。下游悲观预期较浓，现货端始终 维持刚需采买，企业节前备库强度有限。产量收缩背景下， 库存端整体仍处于高位。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，百川口径下的锂辉石及锂云母价格 均有不同幅度的下跌。 ⚫ 盘面上，主力合约 ...