1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market is in a wide - range shock. The supply and demand of lead concentrate and waste batteries continue to have gaps, processing fees are under pressure to decline, and the cost side still has support. Refinery overhauls increase, the supply pressure of electrolytic lead and secondary lead weakens marginally, and demand is affected by both the boost of the new national standard and the pressure of battery exports. The supply - demand maintains a weak pattern, and the lead price should be treated with a shock mindset. It is necessary to continuously monitor the implementation of refinery overhauls and the fulfillment of demand [2][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Lead Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a narrow - range weak shock. At the beginning of the month, the lead price rebounded to around 17,000 yuan/ton due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, good domestic import - export data, and supply - side disturbances. After the optimistic sentiment faded, the lead price oscillated downward due to the non - fulfillment of the consumption peak season and the increase in social inventory. It then rebounded at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.87% to 16,880 yuan/ton. - LME lead showed a convergent shock trend. On one hand, the weakening US dollar boosted the lead price; on the other hand, the high LME inventory and short - selling enthusiasm of speculative funds pressured the price. It closed at 1,997 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.4% [7]. 3.2 Lead Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to June 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate output was 220.4 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.16%. Overseas output was 127.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, and China's output was 93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. It is expected that the overseas lead concentrate increment will reach about 10 million tons this year, and the domestic increment will be around 7 million tons [8][10]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In September, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 450 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 90 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 US dollars/dry ton. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and it is expected that the processing fees will continue to decline. In July, the lead concentrate import volume was 122,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.35%; the silver concentrate import volume was 154,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.62%. It is expected that the silver concentrate import will remain at the current level [18][19]. 3.2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to June 2025, the global refined lead output was 6.57 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.56%. It is predicted that the global refined lead output in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [24]. - **Refinery overhauls increase, and the electrolytic lead output in September is expected to decline**: In August, the electrolytic lead output was 324,700 tons, slightly lower than expected. It is expected that the output in September will be 320,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.24% [29]. - **The price of waste batteries is slowly falling, and secondary lead refineries are reducing production**: In August, the average price of waste batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.5%. The secondary lead output in August was 248,800 tons, lower than expected. It is expected that the output in September will be 209,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.8% [34][35]. 3.2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to June 2025, the global refined lead consumption was 6.549 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the supply will exceed the demand by 82,000 tons. The short - term recovery of the European and American automobile markets has uncertainty, and the boost to lead battery consumption is cautiously optimistic [48][49]. - **The peak season of lead battery production is not prosperous, and there are mixed factors in September**: In August, the lead battery production peak season did not meet expectations. In September, the new national standard for electric bicycles is implemented, which is expected to improve the demand, but the export to some Middle - Eastern countries is facing tariff increases. It is expected that the battery enterprise production will remain cautious [53]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead product imports, and the tariff increase in the Middle East is negative for starting battery exports**: In July, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased month - on - month. It is expected that the import volume will decline in August, and the export will remain stable. The battery export is affected by the tax increase in the Middle East, and the export volume is expected to decline [54][55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead battery consumption outlook marginally**: In the automotive sector, the demand for lead batteries is expected to increase with the growth of vehicle ownership and the implementation of subsidy policies. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard and the old - for - new policy are expected to increase the lead battery demand. In the energy - storage sector, the lead battery demand also has growth potential [64][67][68]. 3.2.4 LME Maintains High Inventory, and Domestic Inventory is Mildly Reduced - In August, the LME lead inventory remained high, and it is expected to continue to increase, which will pressure the lead price. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and it is expected to continue to decline slowly in September [73]. 3.3 Summary and Future Outlook - The supply - demand of lead concentrate and waste batteries has gaps, and the cost side has support. The supply pressure of electrolytic lead and secondary lead is weakening, and the demand is affected by both positive and negative factors. The lead price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the refinery overhauls and demand fulfillment [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - level, during the reporting period, the expectation of interest rate cuts fluctuated. At the beginning of August, the labor market data pushed up the expectation of a 50bp rate cut in September. However, Fed officials later down - regulated this expectation. In terms of cost, nickel ore supply is becoming looser, with price changes in Indonesia and the Philippines. Fundamentally, nickel - iron imports shrank, prices rose, and steel mill production increases were poor. The sulfuric acid market maintained its heat, but the growth of supply was limited by raw materials. The pure - nickel market had average trading. Later, as the interest - rate cut approaches, the nickel price may rise, with steel mills expected to increase production and replenish raw materials in September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around the interest - rate cut expectation. At the beginning of the month, the poor non - farm payrolls data and potential rate cuts pushed up nickel prices. In the middle, hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in nickel prices. At the end, dovish remarks from Powell restored nickel prices. Overall, the price fluctuations were limited. The spot premium and discount remained stable, with Jinchuan nickel in the 2100 - 2600 range and imported nickel in the 300 - 600 range [8][9]. 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - Trump's tariff diplomacy was widespread in August, with trade frictions between the US and many countries. The US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff policies may affect future tariff disturbances. The US economic data was not optimistic, with inflation rising, the labor market weakening, and consumer spending conservative. There was a risk of stagflation. However, the upcoming rate cut in September may boost market sentiment [13][14][15]. Domestic - China's economic data was relatively stable in August. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and demand showed signs of recovery. Inventory circulation was smooth. However, inflation data was mixed, and consumer spending was not strong. The domestic economy relied heavily on fiscal support, with government bond financing playing a major role in social financing. There were still structural risks [16][17]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Nickel Ore Supply and Cost - Overseas nickel ore supply is expected to be looser, with a decline in the Indonesian benchmark price in late August. In July, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories rose. However, high - grade nickel ore remained in short supply [18][20]. Smelting Profit and Supply - In August, China's refined nickel production increased year - on - year. In July, the smelting profit of integrated electrowinning nickel improved, but it may decline in August due to rising costs and falling nickel prices. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia, while exports also increased. Currently, export profits are in a loss state, which may affect future exports [21][23]. Nickel - Iron Cost and Demand - In July, the price of high - nickel pig iron first fell and then rose. In August, the production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants improved, but cost pressure remained. In September, the production of stainless steel is expected to increase, which may improve the profit of nickel - iron smelting. In July, the import of nickel - iron increased slightly, and the import and export of stainless steel showed different trends [25][26][27]. Sulfuric Nickel Market - In August, the price of sulfuric nickel showed a differentiated trend. The production of sulfuric nickel decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The inventory of the industry chain decreased, indicating smooth resource circulation. The profit of high - ice - nickel to sulfuric nickel was positive, while other processes were in the red. In July, imports increased, and exports decreased slightly [30][31]. New Energy Vehicle Market - From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly, but the growth rate slowed down in July. In July, the export of new energy vehicles increased significantly. In the future, the growth rate of consumption will slow down, but there is still room for growth, and subsidy policies will play a supporting role [34][35]. Inventory Situation - As of August 29, domestic refined nickel social inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. In the future, with the import window open and limited domestic supply growth, and considering the production increase of steel mills and the seasonal peak of the power end, inventory may decrease during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [37][38]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: There is no maintenance plan at home and abroad, but the smelting profit is expected to decline, and domestic production is expected to be stable but weak. The import window is open, and overseas resources may flow in [40]. - Demand: Steel mills' production is expected to increase, and the largest demand terminal may replenish inventory. The growth rate of the power terminal has slowed down but still has growth potential [40]. - Cost: Nickel ore supply is becoming looser, and the cost center is expected to move down [40]. - Macro: As the interest - rate cut approaches, the macro - expectation is positive, but tariff disturbances should be watched out for. Overall, the nickel price may rise as the interest - rate cut nears, with the replenishment expectation of steel mills and positive macro - sentiment [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - International gold prices hit a new high, and significant domestic events are approaching. Amid overseas economic contraction and rising long - term interest rate risks, the dollar index rose, and the stock market declined. In the domestic market, A - shares weakened, and the market style shifted. The linkage between stocks and bonds weakened, and attention should be paid to post - risk - preference asset allocation opportunities [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to maintain strong performance due to Trump's pressure on the Fed, which erodes market confidence in the Fed's independence, triggering a surge in risk - aversion sentiment. The market is focused on the US non - farm payroll data to predict the September interest - rate cut [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to continue rising due to the combination of macro factors (Trump's intervention in the Fed, weakening dollar, and expected non - conventional economic stimulus measures) and fundamental factors (overseas mine supply disruptions and approaching consumption season) [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate as the market's confidence in the Fed's interest - rate cut strengthens, and the consumption season is approaching, but the market is still waiting for clear macro guidance [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate as the supply remains sufficient, the spot price is slightly down, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to repair strongly in the short term as the short - selling funds reduce their positions, and there is an expected marginal improvement in consumption and a reduction in supply pressure [11]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate as the short - term supply - demand situation has not changed significantly, and the contradictions are dull [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly above the moving average as the market risk preference declines, and the short - term supply is insufficient while demand is weak [13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply pressure is high, and the demand side has mixed performance, with the social inventory slightly decreasing [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to decline weakly as the market corrects the supply - disruption pricing, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate as the dollar index rises, putting pressure on nickel prices, but there is an expected improvement in the nickel - iron fundamentals and a potential boost to the spot market after the price decline [18]. - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly as the geopolitical situation in Russia - Ukraine heats up, and the market expects OPEC+ to pause its production - increase plan [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate as the supply and demand of steel both increase, and there is short - term technical support [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to rebound and oscillate as the port inventory slightly decreases, and there is a demand for restocking [22]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue oscillating as the US soybean good - crop rate is lower than expected, and there is uncertainty in long - term procurement [23][24]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate as the Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August, but the export demand is strong, mainly due to a significant increase in Indian imports [25][27]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 but remained in the contraction range for six consecutive months. In Europe, debt and political risks intertwined, and long - term bond yields hit multi - year highs. The dollar index rose to 98.4, and the stock market declined. Gold prices hit a new high of 3540, and copper and oil both rose by over 1% [2]. - Domestic: Xi Jinping met with the Iranian President to deepen economic and trade cooperation, and Kim Jong - un arrived in Beijing. A - shares weakened, the market style shifted, and the margin trading balance expanded to 2.3 trillion. The linkage between stocks and bonds weakened, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond interest rates were 1.77% and 2.02% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Tuesday saw precious metals continue to rise. Trump's pressure on the Fed eroded market confidence in the Fed's independence, driving gold and silver prices to record highs. COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to 3599.5 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to 41.73 dollars/ounce. The market is focused on the US non - farm payroll data to predict the September interest - rate cut [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper broke through the key resistance above 10,000 dollars. The domestic near - month structure turned to par. Macro factors such as Trump's intervention in the Fed and expected non - conventional economic stimulus measures boosted the metal market. In the industry, the Mantoverde mine in Chile will experience a temporary production decline. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue rising [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,720 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. LME aluminum closed at 2,621.5 dollars/ton, up 0.08%. The market's confidence in the Fed's interest - rate cut strengthened, and the consumption season is approaching, but the market is still waiting for clear macro guidance, so aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,022 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The supply is sufficient, the spot price is slightly down, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising. Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for six consecutive months, but new orders improved. The domestic consumption is expected to improve marginally, and the supply pressure is relieved in stages. Short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the range [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated. The supply of lead concentrates is tightening, and the supply pressure is weakening as more refineries are under maintenance. The consumption side is affected by both the Middle - East tariff on exported batteries and the new national standard for electric bicycles. Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated narrowly. The decline of European and American stock markets cooled the market risk preference, and the short - term supply is insufficient while demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly above the moving average [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand side has mixed performance. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Tuesday, carbonate lithium oscillated weakly. The market has corrected the supply - disruption pricing, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state. Lithium prices are expected to decline weakly [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policies were unconstitutional, causing the dollar index to soar. The nickel - iron fundamentals are expected to improve, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [18]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil prices oscillated strongly. The Russia - Ukraine conflict heated up, and the market expects OPEC+ to pause its production - increase plan. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly [19]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures stabilized and oscillated. The supply and demand of steel both increased, and there is short - term technical support. Steel prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate [20]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures rebounded and oscillated. The port inventory decreased slightly, and there is a demand for restocking. Iron ore prices are expected to rebound and oscillate [22]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the 01 contract of bean meal fell 0.33% to 3,050 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of rapeseed meal fell 0.44% to 2,500 yuan/ton. The US soybean good - crop rate was 65%, lower than expected. Short - term US soybean procurement agreements are difficult to reach, and prices are expected to continue oscillating [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the 01 contract of palm oil rose 1.03% to 9,422 yuan/ton. In August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, but export demand was strong due to a significant increase in Indian imports. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [25][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US labor market is cooling, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September. The domestic stock market is in a short - term shock adjustment phase, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues to fail [2]. - For precious metals, short - term chasing of gold and silver is not recommended, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is positive. The market is focused on the US non - farm payrolls report [3][4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to enter a high - level shock in the short term due to the hawkish stance of some officials and the potential for a tight balance in supply and demand [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are oscillating as the market awaits the non - farm payrolls report to confirm the Fed's rate - cut decision, and the supply and demand situation is also in a state of change [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly due to a bearish supply - demand outlook [10][11]. - Zinc prices are testing integer support as inventory accumulation continues to suppress prices, but there is also some support from downstream point - pricing [12]. - Lead prices are in a narrow - range oscillation as the supply - demand weakness remains unbroken [13]. - Tin prices are in a technical adjustment, but there is strong support on the supply side and potential for consumption improvement [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating, and the market is watching the support strength of the 60 - day moving average [16]. - Nickel prices are oscillating as the market awaits non - farm data, and there are potential disturbances in Indonesia [17][18]. - Crude oil prices are oscillating due to a combination of bullish and bearish factors [19][20]. - Steel prices are in an oscillating trend as supply and demand data both decline, and the market is concerned about the resumption of supply after the blast furnace restarts [21]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short term as the supply - demand situation improves marginally, but there is strong resistance in the medium term [22]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are mainly oscillating. The drought area of US soybeans is expanding, and the market is waiting for further reports [23][24]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate and adjust as the August production in Malaysia increased slightly and the market is waiting for the MPOB report [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month ISM services PMI reached a six - month high, but employment contracted for three consecutive months. The ADP employment increase was only 54,000 in August, and the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 99%. The US 8 - month non - farm payrolls report is to be released [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market continued to decline, and the stock market is expected to enter a short - term shock adjustment phase. The stock - bond seesaw effect failed, and the bond market was still cautious [2]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce on Thursday. The decline was due to some investors taking profits. The weak US employment data strengthened the Fed's rate - cut expectation [3]. Copper - On Thursday, the Shanghai copper main contract fell slightly from a high, and the London copper faced resistance at the $10,000 mark. The spot market trading was cold. An eagle - eyed official opposed a rate cut this month. The overseas mine supply shortage persists, and domestic refined copper production may decline in September, with supply - demand potentially turning to a tight balance [6][7]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,605 yuan per ton, down 0.77%. The LME aluminum closed at $2590 per ton, down 0.92%. The electrolytic aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the market is waiting for the non - farm payrolls report to confirm the Fed's rate - cut decision [8]. Alumina - On Thursday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 2980 yuan per ton, down 1.46%. The supply is abundant, and the demand is stable, with the market having a weak expectation for future supply - demand balance [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc main contract ZN2510 had a bottom - fishing rebound during the day and a low - level oscillation at night. The inventory continued to increase, suppressing zinc prices, but there was also support from downstream point - pricing [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the Shanghai lead main contract PB2510 oscillated in a narrow range during the day and opened high and closed low at night. The supply - demand weakness remained, and lead prices oscillated in a narrow range [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the Shanghai tin main contract SN2510 dived during the day and the center of gravity moved down slightly at night. There is strong support on the supply side, and tin prices are in a technical adjustment with limited downside space [14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate oscillated slightly stronger, but the spot price weakened. The supply of lithium ore is still abundant, and the market is watching the support strength of the 60 - day moving average [16]. Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The labor market data in the US declined significantly, and the Fed's third - in - command reiterated the rate - cut expectation in September. The supply expectation is rising, and the market is waiting for non - farm data [17][18]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil prices oscillated. The EIA crude oil inventory increased significantly, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting. Geopolitical events may still cause disturbances [19][20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated. Affected by the parade, supply and demand data both declined, and inventory increased. The market is concerned about the supply recovery pressure after the blast furnace restarts [21]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The spot trading volume increased, and the supply - demand situation improved marginally in the short term, but there is strong resistance in the medium term due to weak terminal demand [22]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean meal 01 contract fell 0.29%, and the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 0.2%. The drought area of US soybeans expanded, and the StoneX institution lowered the US soybean yield forecast. The market is waiting for further reports [23][24]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil 01 contract fell 0.21%. The MPOA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased slightly in August. The market is waiting for the MPOB report, and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [25].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The international gold price is approaching its previous high, and the domestic stock and bond markets have both risen. The market is optimistic about a September interest rate cut by the Fed, and precious metals are favored as a safe - haven and investment option. Copper prices are expected to remain strongly volatile, aluminum prices are oscillating, and other metals and commodities also show different trends based on their fundamentals and macro - factors [2][3][4]. - The prices of agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc. are also affected by factors like production forecasts, inventory changes, and macro - economic expectations, and are expected to show oscillating trends in the short term [24][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - Metals like copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. have different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest in domestic and international futures markets. For example, SHFE copper closed at 79780 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan, with a trading volume of 150801 lots [28]. 2. Industry Data Perspective - For copper, on September 1st, SHFE copper closed at 79780 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan from August 29th. LME copper closed at 9875 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. Other metals also have detailed data on price changes, inventory, and basis [29][30][31]. 3. Main Variety Views Macro - Overseas: European domestic demand has recovered, with the August manufacturing PMI above the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. The unemployment rate in July dropped to a historical low of 6.2%. The US dollar index has fallen, and gold prices are approaching their previous high. Domestically: China's August S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, new orders increased, and the stock market rose with a decrease in trading volume. The bond market also strengthened [2][3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices continued to rise on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to 3545.8 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.46% to 41.725 dollars/ounce, reaching a nearly 14 - year high. The market is optimistic about a Fed interest rate cut in September, and silver's rise is mainly due to the catch - up logic [4][5]. Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper had a narrow - range oscillation, and LME copper faced resistance after breaking through 9900. The market is affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's preventive interest rate cut expectation and China's economic data. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and short - term copper prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, SHFE aluminum closed at 20690 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. The macro - environment provides some support for metals, but the supply and demand of aluminum are relatively stable, and the market is waiting for more guidance with aluminum prices oscillating [8]. Alumina - On Monday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 3007 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The supply of alumina in the north is excessive, and the inventory in warehouses is increasing, but the planned maintenance in the south provides some support, so alumina is expected to be under pressure and oscillate [10]. Zinc - On Monday, SHFE zinc had a narrow - range oscillation. Affected by the parade, the consumption of zinc is suppressed, but LME de - stocking and refinery maintenance provide support. Short - term zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [11]. Lead - On Monday, SHFE lead had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the social inventory is high, but refinery maintenance in September restricts the decline. Short - term lead prices are difficult to break out of the oscillating pattern [12]. Tin - On Monday, SHFE tin had a narrow - range oscillation. After the market digested the positive news of Yunnan Tin's maintenance, the supply of tin mines is still tight, but the willingness of funds to increase positions is insufficient, and short - term tin prices return to oscillating consolidation [13][14]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is passively shrinking, and the demand side shows different trends. The domestic anti - involution sentiment is repeated, and short - term futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, carbonate lithium oscillated weakly. The supply of lithium salt is high, and the short - term price may decline, but the risk of resource - side disturbances still exists, and the market needs to be vigilant against sentiment fluctuations [17]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated strongly. The macro - expectation boosts nickel prices, but the fundamental support is limited, and the upside space is expected to be limited [18][19]. Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil prices were weak, and then oscillated at a high level at night. The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine situation and OPEC + production policies. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate, and the risk of Russian oil sanctions needs to be watched [20]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices are affected by production cuts during the parade, and supply has shrunk. Iron ore arrivals and shipments have increased, and demand has weakened before the parade, but the expected resumption of blast furnaces on September 4th provides support. Steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. The US soybean market was closed for the holiday. Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range [24][25]. Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil futures rose slightly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is declining month - on - month, and exports are increasing. The Indonesian reference price has increased. The market driving force is limited, and short - term palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [26][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas: In July, US personal consumption expenditure showed resilience with a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 0.3% real growth. PCE inflation remained at 2.6% year - on - year, while core PCE rose to 2.9%, highlighting core inflation pressure. The market's probability of a 25BP Fed rate cut in September remained at 87%. Trump's attempt to fire Fed理事Cook led to a legal battle. The dollar index fluctuated, US bond yields declined, gold prices rose, and stocks, copper, and crude oil all increased. This week, focus on US August non - farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing data, and Fed personnel issues [2]. - Domestic: In August, the manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 49.4 but remained in the contraction range. New orders and new export orders were weak, and the "anti - involution" policy pushed up price indices, alleviating deflation pressure. The non - manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, with the service industry PMI reaching a yearly high. A - shares fluctuated, and the bond market was weak. As the domestic important node approaches, market divergence is expected to increase, and the window for peak stock market risk appetite may be approaching. This week, focus on the SCO Summit [2]. 3. Section Summaries Overseas Macro - 7 - month US PCE: Overall in line with expectations, with energy and food items falling, core goods cooling, and core services warming. The market's probability of a September rate cut remained at around 87% [4][5]. Domestic Macro - August Manufacturing: The PMI slightly increased but was still in the contraction range. Supply and demand improved, "anti - involution" pushed up prices, and there was raw material restocking and finished - product destocking. The service industry's PMI rose to a yearly high, while the construction industry was at a low level [7][8]. Asset Performance - Equity: A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas stocks showed different trends. A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high, but the market's money - making effect was not strong [11]. - Bond: Domestic and overseas bond yields changed. In the domestic market, 10 - year and 30 - year bond yields were at 1.78% and 2.01% respectively, and in September, government bond issuance may pressure the bond market [2]. - Commodity: Different commodities had different price trends. Gold and silver prices rose, while crude oil prices showed a mixed performance [17]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index and exchange rates of major currencies changed. The US dollar index fluctuated, and the US dollar weakened against the RMB [19]. High - Frequency Data - Domestic: Data on congestion, subway passenger volume, real estate transactions, and passenger car sales were presented, but no specific analysis was provided [21]. - Overseas: Data on retail sales, unemployment claims, and financial conditions were presented, but no specific analysis was provided [26]. This Week's Key Data and Events - A series of economic data from China, the eurozone, and the US will be released this week, including PMI, CPI, employment, and trade data [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [2][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2622 | 2619 | - 3.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 20560 | 20715 | 155.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | 2.07 | 2.98 | 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 479525 | 481050 | 1525.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 57144 | 58629 | 1485.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20604 | 20772 | 168.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | 30 | - 30 | - 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Reserve Spot Average Price | 20562 | 20712 | 150.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 42 | 60 | 18.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 59.6 | 62 | 2.4 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16628.88 | 16581.41 | - 47.5 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 3975.12 | 4190.59 | 215.5 | yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's dismissal of Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence. The US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The Q2 core PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000. The eurozone economic sentiment index in August dropped to 95.2. In China, Shanghai introduced real - estate new policies, and the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed [4] - **Consumption end**: The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7% week - on - week, but the order recovery degree of each segment varied, and the short - term downstream operating rate may still rise slowly [5] - **Inventory aspect**: On August 28, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,000 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons from last Thursday [5] 3.3 Market Outlook The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [6] 3.4 Industry News - Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum output in July 2025 was 510,200 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July was 3.4142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [7] - The Yunnan Green and Low - Carbon Demonstration Industrial Park was completed, and the 1.93 - million - ton low - carbon aluminum B - series project of Yunnan Honghe was put into production. Currently, the first - stage capacity of 160,715 tons in the B - series has reached full production, and the transferred capacity of 378,000 tons is expected to reach full production before October 1 [7] - The retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market in the first 24 days of August was 727,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6% and 7% respectively. The new - energy retail penetration rate has reached 56.6%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of the year has reached 7.182 million, a year - on - year surge of 27% [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai Aluminum's inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [8][9][12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 5.25 to close at 1053 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.5%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 33 to close at 3055 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.07%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 10 to close at 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.34%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 30 to close at 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.18%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 10 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39% [4]. - U.S. soybeans oscillated. The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was higher than expected; the re - allocation of the U.S. biodiesel exemption volume to large refineries might face significant resistance, and U.S. soybean oil prices declined during the week; new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated and declined during the week. The oil mill operating rate was at a high level, and soybean meal inventory was expected to increase. The Chinese trade delegation went to the U.S. for negotiations. Trump previously posted that he hoped China would purchase U.S. soybeans. There were positive expectations for the conclusion of an agricultural product agreement in this negotiation. Market sentiment cooled, and long - position funds reduced their positions to avoid risks [4][7]. - Precipitation in U.S. soybean production areas will be below the average in the next two weeks, which may be unfavorable for the growth and development during the pod - setting period. There is a high possibility that the high - yield per - unit estimate will be revised down. Attention should be paid to the data adjustment in the September USDA report. As the positive sentiment expectation of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations is gradually priced in, the decline of domestic soybean meal futures slows down. Attention should be paid to whether an agricultural product agreement is reached and announced. In terms of ship - booking, China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans yet, and the purchase progress for the November - January shipping period is slow compared with the same period. The release of reserve soybeans has alleviated the tight supply expectation to some extent, but the tight supply expectation remains unchanged without effective replenishment of distant - end soybean purchases. In the short term, domestic soybean meal futures may oscillate within a range [4][7][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract dropped 5.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.5%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased by 6 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 3 dollars per ton, an increase of 0.64%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit increased by 41.16 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 33 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.07%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 30 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.18%; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased by 3 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price remained unchanged; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 10 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.34%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 23 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean: The good - to - excellent rate was higher than expected, but dry conditions in the production areas since mid - August may lead to a downward revision of the high - yield per - unit estimate in the September USDA report. The re - allocation of the U.S. biodiesel exemption volume to large refineries faces resistance, and new - crop export sales exceeded expectations but the overall sales progress is slow [4][7]. - Domestic soybean meal: The oil mill operating rate is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory is expected to increase. The Sino - U.S. trade negotiation has positive expectations for the agricultural product agreement, which cools the market sentiment and causes long - position funds to reduce their positions [4][7]. - Supply and demand: China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans, and the purchase progress for the November - January shipping period is slow. The release of reserve soybeans alleviates the tight supply expectation, but the tight supply expectation remains without effective replenishment of distant - end soybean purchases [4][7][11]. Industry News - Brazil: In August, the daily average soybean export volume increased by 24% compared with the same period last year; a federal judge approved a ban to temporarily suspend the "Amazon soybean ban" plan; farmers in Paraná state are preparing for the 2025/26 sowing, but the planting area may decline [12][14][16]. - Canada: As of August 17, the weekly rapeseed export volume decreased by 64.34%; from August 1 to 17, the rapeseed export volume decreased by 46.16% compared with the same period last year; in July, the rapeseed crushing volume increased by 13.13% month - on - month; the Canadian government expects the 2025 rapeseed output to increase by 3.6% [12][13][16]. - EU: As of August 24, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed import volumes decreased compared with the same period last year [14]. - Argentina: As of August 20, the cumulative sales volume of 2024/25 soybeans reached 2989.56 million tons [16].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Last week, copper prices fluctuated and strengthened. The main reasons were the moderate rebound of the US core PCE in line with expectations, the resilience of the overall US economic demand, the dovish stance of Powell and Fed governors on interest rate cuts, and the concerns about the Fed's policy independence triggered by Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed governor Cook, which weakened the US dollar index and boosted the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine shortages persisted, the release of global refined copper new production capacity was limited, domestic social inventories were at a low level, and the near - term structure turned to B again. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the $10,000 integer mark for LME copper [2][3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From August 22nd to August 29th, LME copper rose from $9809.00/ton to $9906.00/ton, a 0.99% increase; COMEX copper rose from 446.1 cents/pound to 458.5 cents/pound, a 2.78% increase; SHFE copper rose from 78690.00 yuan/ton to 79410.00 yuan/ton, a 0.91% increase; international copper rose from 70220.00 yuan/ton to 70490.00 yuan/ton, a 0.38% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.01, LME spot premium/discount decreased by $1.88/ton (2.40% decrease), and Shanghai spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of August 29th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 600,000 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 2925 tons (1.88% increase), COMEX inventory increased by 6361 short tons (2.34% increase), SHFE inventory decreased by 1950 tons (-2.39% decrease), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 4100 tons (-4.68% decrease) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movement Reasons**: The rise in copper prices was due to the moderate rebound of the US core PCE in July in line with expectations, the Fed's dovish stance on interest rate cuts, and the concerns about the Fed's independence caused by Trump's actions. Fundamentally, overseas mine shortages persisted, new production capacity was limited, and domestic inventories were low [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 29th, the total global inventory rebounded slightly. LME copper inventory increased slightly by 0.3 million tons with a cancellation warrant ratio of 8.2%, SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 0.2 million tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons. The LME inventory continued to rebound but at a slower pace, and the US copper decline rate slowed down. The Shanghai - London ratio remained at 8.02 due to the weak US dollar index [8]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: In the US, the core PCE in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The Fed's dovish governor supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The EU and the US reached a tariff concession agreement. Domestically, China's industrial enterprise profits decreased in July and from January to July, but high - tech manufacturing profits grew rapidly [9]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Codelco's Teniente mine in Chile is expected to cut production by 40,000 tons this year. The underground pumping at the Kamoa - Kakula mine is slow, and the domestic spot TC dropped to -$41.5/ton. China's refined copper production remained high, but non - CSPT smelters began to cut production slightly due to cold material shortages. On the demand side, power grid investment weakened, the start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the consumption of the wind and solar industries was expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle market entered the off - season but still had good year - on - year growth. Domestic social inventories remained at a low level of about 120,000 tons, and the near - term structure turned to B [10]. 3. Industry News - Freeport Indonesia expects to complete the repair of its East Java joint - venture smelter in early September. The Gresik smelter has an annual cathode copper production capacity of 342,000 tons [13]. - Hudbay Minerals restarted its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba after the evacuation order was lifted and expects to resume full - load production in early September [14]. - Ivanhoe's Kamoa - Kakula mine in Africa is expected to restart mining in early 2026 after drainage. The company lowered its 2025 production forecast by 28% to 370,000 - 420,000 tons of copper concentrate [15]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes, basis, premium/discount, and other aspects [17][18][22][26][30][31][33][37][39][44].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices continued to rise. Concerns about the Fed's independence boosted risk - aversion sentiment, and the release of the US July PCE data further strengthened the market's interest - rate cut expectation. COMEX gold futures approached the historical high, and international silver prices reached a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy remains resilient, but under Trump's pressure, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed support for interest - rate cuts, and the market expects a more than 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Market doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, while silver prices are expected to be stronger in the short term [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 785.12 | 11.72 | 1.52 | 136691 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 781.70 | 4.87 | 0.63 | 27326 | 201542 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3516.10 | 98.90 | 2.89 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9386 | 194 | 2.11 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9365 | 54 | 0.58 | 409046 | 3444504 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 40.75 | 1.87 | 4.81 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices rose last week. The US July PCE data strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, pushing up gold and silver prices. COMEX gold futures neared the historical high, and silver prices hit a 14 - year high [3][6][7]. - The US economy shows resilience, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is increasing due to Trump's pressure. Many Fed officials support interest - rate cuts, and the market expects an over 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in September [3][7]. - Doubts about the Fed's independence, the weakening of the US dollar index, and the interest - rate cut expectation support the rise of precious metal prices. Technically, gold prices face pressure at the previous high, and short - term silver prices are expected to be stronger [3][7]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The annualized revised quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the Q2 core PCE price index was 2.5%, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6% [10]. - The US July PCE price index was 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the month - on - month growth was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%. The US July core PCE price index rose 2.9% year - on - year, the highest since February 2025, in line with expectations [10]. - US personal spending in July 2025 increased 0.5% month - on - month to $20.802 trillion, accelerating from the revised 0.4% in June and in line with market expectations [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000, lower than the expected 230,000, and the number of continued claims dropped to 1.954 million, both lower than expected [10]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 29, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 977.68 tons, an increase of 20.91 tons from last week; the silver holdings of ishare were 15310.00 tons, an increase of 21.18 tons from last week [11]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on August 26, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 275767, non - commercial short positions were 61456, and non - commercial net long positions were 214311, an increase of 1721 from last week. For silver futures on the same day, non - commercial long positions were 68227, non - commercial short positions were 21761, and non - commercial net long positions were 46466, a decrease of 83 from last week [14].