投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251017 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙、何天 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外避险情绪发酵，A 股分化扩大 海外方面，市场情绪明显转谨。美国政府持续停摆，参议院第十次否决临时拨款法案， 两家地区银行曝出贷款欺诈与坏账，信贷风险担忧升温，市场警惕更大范围信用危机酝酿。 俄美总统时隔近两月再度通话，特朗普拟于布达佩斯会晤普京。美元指数回落至 98.2，10 年 期美债收益率跌破 4.0%，美股全线走低，金价加速上行站稳 4300 美元，油价跌逾 1%，铜 价小幅收跌。在政府关门导致经济数据缺位背景下，近期关注美联储官员讲话、24 日 CPI 数 据及月末 APEC 中美元首会晤，在局势明朗前预计海外避险情绪或继续发酵。 国内方面，A 股宽幅震荡、分化扩大，高切低迹象继续演绎，煤炭、银行、保险为代表 的红利指数表现占优，而成长、科技板块延续跌势，两市超 4000 只个股收跌、成交额缩量 至 2 万亿下方，在中美博弈尚未明朗、海外避险情绪仍在加速下，短期股市震荡偏弱看待； 中长期看，流动性宽松与基本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has shown signs of easing tensions, with the US dollar index falling and US stocks rising. The Fed is considering accelerating interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the economy shows weak recovery, with A - shares rebounding on low volume. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, there is value in bargain - hunting. The bond market is slightly adjusted [2][3]. - Precious metals are supported by safe - haven sentiment, and their prices are expected to continue rising due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed's dovish remarks, and Sino - US trade tensions [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to increased macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern as inventory is likely to be reduced again [8]. - Alumina prices are under pressure in the short term due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina [9]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation [10]. - Lead prices face increasing pressure as LME inventories rise, domestic supply eases, and consumption shows limited improvement [11]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories [12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand [14][15]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as there is a game between bulls and bears, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals [16][17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak market sentiment, high supply pressure, and uncertain demand [18][19]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment and other factors [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely due to trade uncertainties, changes in import and export volumes, and Indonesia's plan to increase export taxes [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US officials responded to China's expanded rare - earth export control, and the Fed's Milan called for accelerating interest - rate cuts. US stocks rose, the dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.0%, gold prices exceeded $4200 per ounce, copper prices rose, and oil prices fell [2]. - Domestic: In September, CPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3%. New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed to the lowest point of the year. A - shares rebounded on low volume, and the bond market was slightly adjusted [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious - metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. Factors such as the extended US government shutdown, dovish remarks from the Fed, and Sino - US trade tensions supported the price increase. The market expects interest - rate cuts in October and December. It is expected that precious - metal prices will continue to rise [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and stabilized, and LME copper oscillated at night. The domestic near - month contract turned to a B structure, and the spot market trading improved. After the holiday, it entered a new restocking cycle. The LME inventory dropped to 138,000 tons. Due to macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,910 yuan per ton, down 0.1%. After the holiday, the arrival of aluminum ingots was less, and restocking was active. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced again this week, and aluminum prices will maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2797 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. Due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina, alumina prices are under pressure in the short term [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and moved horizontally at night. Due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation, zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and horizontally at night. With the continuous increase in LME inventories, the easing of domestic supply, and limited improvement in consumption, lead prices face increasing pressure [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated narrowly during the day and its center of gravity moved down at night. Due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories, tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience [12][13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. Due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand, industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate - lithium prices oscillated weakly. There is a game between bulls and bears in the market, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals. Lithium prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.11 Steel and Iron Ore - On Wednesday, steel futures were weak. Spot trading was at a low level, and terminal demand was weak. Supply pressure increased, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Iron - ore futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand had limited upward space. Iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [18][19]. 3.12 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean - meal 01 contract rose 0.17% to 2917 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract fell 0.51% to 2357 yuan per ton. Due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment, bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. 3.13 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm - oil 01 contract fell 0.47% to 9322 yuan per ton. India's palm - oil imports in September dropped to the lowest level since May, while Malaysia's palm - oil exports in the first half of October increased. Indonesia plans to increase the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [23][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously bullish on nickel prices, with a "cautiously bullish" rating [3][40] Core Views of the Report - Macro层面: The Fed has started the interest rate cut path, and the monetary easing pattern is clear. The US dollar is expected to weaken, which is positive for US dollar-denominated assets. However, Trump's policies bring uncertainties, and the downward path of the US dollar index is not clear [3][40] - Fundamentals: Overseas nickel ore supply remains loose, and domestic port inventories have increased significantly. The cost of nickel iron is still under pressure, and the production of 300-series stainless steel is flat with slow de-stocking. The demand for nickel sulfate replenishment is good, and the power terminal is marginally warming up. The overall fundamentals remain weak [3] - Outlook: The macro outlook is positive, but policy risks still exist. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish, and the center of nickel prices will slowly rise this year. Attention should be paid to the RKAB nickel ore approval quota scale in Indonesia [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the non-farm payrolls data was revised down, and the market bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices. After the interest rate cut, the bullish sentiment was released, and the price moderately declined. At the end of the month, the US economic data was strong, and the stagflation risk decreased, pushing up nickel prices again. However, the Fed officials' differences on the future interest rate cut path hindered the price increase [8] - The spot premium of refined nickel was strong. In September, the premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the premium of imported nickel rose from 450 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. The Fed's interest rate cut and pre-holiday replenishment demand supported the premium [10] 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - The US economic data shows resilience, and the downward trend of the US dollar index faces challenges. The weakening labor market has pushed the Fed to cut interest rates, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in theory. However, Trump's policies make it difficult to assess the relative risk intensity between economies, and the decline of the US dollar index may be more tortuous [13] - The risk of stagflation has decreased. The US consumer spending and disposable income have increased, indicating that the consumer willingness and resilience are both strong. However, there are potential risks in the consumer resilience of the resident sector, and the income structure has certain risks [14] Domestic - Domestic demand vitality needs to be boosted, and export performance is outstanding. Investment and consumption are weak, while export data is eye-catching. However, the structural difference in social financing has intensified, and market confidence needs to be corrected. The export data is good, but the export resilience still faces potential risks [16][17][18] 3. Fundamental Analysis 1. Overseas Disturbances are Limited, and the Loose Expectation of Nickel Ore Continues - Overseas nickel ore supply tends to be loose, but high-grade nickel ore is relatively scarce. The suspension of some mining companies in Indonesia has limited impact. In August, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories have reached a three-year high, but the price of high-grade ore has not loosened [21][22] 2. Smelting Profits have Significantly Recovered, and Domestic Supply Remains High - In September, China's refined nickel production increased year-on-year, and the smelting profit has recovered, boosting the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In August, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly, and the import loss has been continuously corrected. Overall, domestic supply remains high [24][25] 3. The Cost Pressure of Nickel Iron Remains, and the Production Scheduling of Stainless Steel is Expected to Contract - In September, the price of high-nickel pig iron was strong. The production of nickel iron in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The profit of the smelting end first increased and then decreased. The production of 300-series stainless steel was flat, and the market expects a contraction in October. The inventory of 300-series stainless steel has decreased seasonally, but the inventory has accumulated again recently [27][28] 4. The Profit of High-Ice Nickel Process is Considerable, and the Demand for Nickel Sulfate is Good - In September, the price of nickel sulfate was strong. The production of nickel sulfate increased year-on-year and month-on-month, and the profit of the high-ice nickel process has been rising. The market resources of nickel sulfate are relatively scarce, and the spot purchase is hot. In August, China's nickel sulfate imports increased slightly, while exports decreased slightly [32] 5. There are Structural Differences in the Power Terminal, and the Heat of the Commercial Vehicle Market Continues - In August, the production and sales growth rates of domestic new energy vehicles slowed down, but the commercial vehicle market maintained a high growth rate. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States have increased year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market shows significant structural differentiation [34][36] 6. Both Domestic and Overseas Inventories are Increasing, and there may be an Inflection Point in Inventory Accumulation this Year - As of October 10, domestic refined nickel social inventories have increased, and the inventories of the two major exchanges have also increased significantly. In the future, the supply side may remain high, while the demand side has no obvious boost, and the spot faces strong inventory accumulation pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut may affect the inventory accumulation trend of the exchanges [38] 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The profit of the smelting end is not good, and the domestic production increase motivation is insufficient. Overseas Russian nickel resources are abundant, and there is no immediate concern about supply [40] - Demand: The real estate transaction growth rate has turned negative, and the subsidy funds for the power end are controlled, so the demand increase is limited [40] - Cost: The supply of nickel ore tends to be loose, high-grade ore is scarce, and the ore price is stable [40] - Macro: The interest rate cut expectation is clear, but policy risks still exist. The macro outlook is positive, but nickel prices are cautiously bullish [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid escalating Sino - US game, the A - share market has shifted to a defensive stance. Short - term stock market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while in the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market has risen in the risk - aversion mode [2][3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver showed mixed performance, and short - term volatility may intensify. The long - term view on precious metal prices remains positive, but caution is advised at present [4][5]. - Regarding copper, due to the intensifying Sino - US game, copper prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Although Rio Tinto's production increased in Q3, the global mine supply remains tight, and the cost still supports copper prices in the medium term [6][7]. - For aluminum, with attention on trade policy trends, the aluminum market's fluctuations will expand. The fundamental support is good, and prices are expected to remain favorable but with large fluctuations [8][9]. - Alumina is dominated by bearish factors and should be treated as a short - position asset due to supply pressure from long - term contracts, production methods, and imports [10]. - Zinc prices will continue to be weak as both macro and fundamental supports decline marginally. Pay attention to LME inventory and structural changes [11]. - Lead prices will be adjusted as fundamental pressure increases marginally, with supply increasing and consumption remaining flat [12]. - Tin prices will have a short - term high - level adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to strong supply - side support. Focus on the support of the 10 - day moving average [14]. - Industrial silicon will have a weak oscillation due to insufficient demand resilience. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from different sectors is lackluster [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate weakly. There is a possibility of further decline, and short - term attention should be paid to the support strength at previous lows [17]. - Nickel prices are at the lower end of the oscillation range and are expected to oscillate and rise. The macro environment is dovish, and although the market is cold, the spot resources are scarce [18][19]. - For soda ash and glass, due to poor post - holiday demand, prices will oscillate weakly [20]. - For steel products (螺卷), spot trading is stable, but futures prices are weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [21][22]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate and adjust. Port inventory has increased, and although demand is high, the upward space is limited [23]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, due to abundant supply and weakening sentiment, prices will oscillate and decline in the short term. Pay attention to the support range below [24][25]. - Palm oil prices will have a wide - range oscillation. Oil prices are weak, and the market is waiting for production and demand data and the progress of Indonesia's biodiesel policy [26][27]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on October 15, 2025, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [28] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, on October 14, the SHFE copper main contract price decreased, and the LME copper price also declined. SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged, while LME inventory decreased. The spot price increased, and the LME copper premium decreased [29]. - For nickel, on October 14, the SHFE nickel main contract price decreased, and the LME nickel price also declined. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [29]. - For zinc, on October 14, the SHFE zinc main contract price decreased, and the LME zinc price declined. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For lead, on October 14, the SHFE lead main contract price decreased, and the LME lead price declined. SHFE lead warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For aluminum, on October 14, the SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price decreased, and the LME aluminum price declined. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [30]. - For alumina, on October 14, the SHFE alumina main contract price decreased, and the national alumina spot average price also declined. SHFE warehouse inventory increased significantly [30]. - For tin, on October 14, the SHFE tin main contract price decreased, and the LME tin price declined. SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory remained unchanged [31]. - For precious metals, on October 14, the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver remained mostly unchanged, with some changes in inventory and the gold - silver ratio [31]. - For steel products, on October 14, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [33]. - For iron ore, on October 14, the iron ore main contract price decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and freight rates [33]. - For coke and coking coal, on October 14, the coke main contract price increased, and the coking coal main contract price also increased. There were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [34]. - For lithium carbonate, on October 14, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased slightly, and there were changes in spot prices and spreads [34]. - For industrial silicon, on October 14, the industrial silicon main contract price decreased, and the average prices of different grades in the East China region remained mostly unchanged [34]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, on October 14, the prices of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal futures decreased, and there were changes in import prices, spot prices, and spreads [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the U.S. government shutdown and intensified China - U.S. game have increased global market risk - aversion, leading to a joint upward movement of gold, silver, and copper. The Fed has different views on future policy paths after the interest - rate cut, while China will implement moderately loose policies and proactive fiscal policies [2]. - Fundamentally, global mine - end supply disturbances have intensified, with some major mining companies lowering their annual production guidance. The growth rate of global mine - end supply this year is less than 1%, and domestic refined copper production has declined. In September, the demand growth of traditional industries in China was limited, while emerging industries maintained a steady copper - using growth rate. Domestic inventories rebounded from a low level, and global inventories continued to increase [2]. - Overall, market risk - aversion demand has increased due to the U.S. trade policy. The Fed has differences in the interest - rate cut rhythm but basically agrees on the direction. Global economic growth remains stable under the background of wide - fiscal policies. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies are clear. With the intensification of mine - end shortages and the tightening of the domestic supply - demand balance, copper prices are expected to return to the upward channel after shock adjustments in October [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 September Copper Market Review - In September 2025, copper prices showed a strong upward trend. LME copper rose from around $9,875 to over $10,440, and SHFE copper rose from 79,500 to around 83,800. The Fed's interest - rate cut in September and supply disturbances in major mines supported copper prices. After the National Day, despite the short - term impact of China - U.S. trade frictions, copper prices rebounded quickly [7]. - In September, downstream copper - using industries faced cost pressures due to rising copper prices. The start - up rates of copper cable enterprises and air - conditioning production decreased, while the start - up rates of copper rod and copper foil enterprises in the primary processing industry rebounded. Social inventories remained low, and the spot market supply - demand structure was in a tight balance [9][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 U.S. Government Shutdown and Recurrence of China - U.S. Trade Frictions - The U.S. government shutdown during the National Day may delay the release of important economic data, affecting the Fed's decision - making on the interest - rate cut path. China - U.S. trade frictions have recurred, increasing market risk - aversion [13]. 3.2.2 U.S. Manufacturing Downturn and Eurozone Manufacturing in Contraction - The U.S. September ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, remaining in the contraction range. New orders decreased, while production and employment showed some improvement. The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, falling back below the boom - bust line. Germany and France's manufacturing PMIs declined, and the eurozone's economic outlook depends on its overall economic performance [14][16]. 3.2.3 China's Central Bank to Implement Moderately Loose Policies and Industrial Profit Growth - China's central bank will implement moderately loose policies and use proactive fiscal policies to support employment and foreign trade. In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth from January to August turned positive for the first time, which is positive for copper prices [17][18]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Intensified Global Mine - End Supply Disturbances and Lowered Production Expectations of Major Miners - As of the end of September, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained at a relatively low level of around - $40/ton. The growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2025 is expected to be less than 1%. Many major mines have encountered problems, and some major mining companies have significantly lowered their production expectations for this year and next year [21]. 3.3.2 Possible Decline in Domestic Production and Limited Release of Overseas Refined Copper Capacity - In September, China's electrolytic copper production was 1121,300 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. However, due to the 770 - document and the shortage of raw materials, domestic production in October is expected to have limited upward space. Overseas, some smelters have shut down, and the new refined copper production capacity in 2025 is limited [27][28]. 3.3.3 Marginal Decline in Refined Copper Imports and the Impact of Document 770 on Scrap Copper Enterprises - From January to August, China's imports of unforged copper and copper products increased by 2.6% year - on - year, while refined copper imports decreased by 6.4%. In September, the import window was not fully opened. Document 770 increased the negative tax rate of scrap copper rod enterprises, leading to production cuts [51][52]. 3.3.4 Continuous Increase in North American Inventories and Low - Level Rebound in Domestic Social Inventories - Since September, domestic inventories have rebounded from a low level, and global inventories have continued to increase. North American inventories are still flowing in. It is expected that global inventories will remain stable or decline slightly in October, and domestic inventories will fluctuate at a low level [53][55]. 3.3.5 Traditional Industries Entering the Peak Season and Stable Growth in Emerging Industries (Except Photovoltaic) - In the power grid investment, due to the high copper price, some projects have been postponed. The photovoltaic industry is undergoing structural adjustments, and the growth rate of wind power is expected to slow down. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the air - conditioning production in October has decreased. However, new energy vehicles have maintained a strong growth momentum, and it is expected that the refined copper consumption will recover steadily in October [61][72]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the U.S. government shutdown and China - U.S. game have increased market risk - aversion. The Fed has differences in the interest - rate cut path, and China will implement loose policies. Fundamentally, the supply side is tightening, and the demand side has limited growth in traditional industries and stable growth in emerging industries. Copper prices are expected to return to the upward channel after shock adjustments in October [77][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak expectation logic may return, and lithium prices will fluctuate downward. Fundamentally, upstream production will remain high due to the lack of supply elasticity. As the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" end, the restocking demand before the terminal peak season may weaken, and the fundamental expectation is marginally bearish. From a market perspective, as Jiangxi lithium mining companies submit review materials, the risk of mica mine shutdown decreases, and the increase in positions and decline in the secondary main contract reflect the market's bet on the cooling expectation of resource disturbances. It is expected that lithium prices will operate weakly with fluctuations [3][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Market Performance**: In September, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated within a narrow range. At the beginning of the month, driven by the rumor of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Zhenxiawo lithium mine, the lithium price broke through the support level with a gap down. As the rumor was falsified, the price corrected upward. The market was uncertain about the continuous production of Jiangxi lithium mines after September 30th, resulting in a significant cooling of the long - short game and stable price trends. Fundamentally, the lithium carbonate market remained weak. The supply elasticity was absent, and weekly production reached new highs. Although spot inventory decreased significantly, the destocking was mainly due to cross - market transfers rather than industrial demand [8]. - **Price Spread**: In September, the electric - industrial price spread rebounded, rising from - 0.08 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 0.11 million yuan/ton at the end. The lithium carbonate - lithium hydroxide price spread was stable, dropping from - 0.38 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 0.65 million yuan/ton at the end, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities during the reporting period [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Resource Disturbance and Cost**: In September, lithium ore prices dropped significantly. The price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate (5.5% - 6%) fell from $881/ton at the beginning of the month to $812/ton at the end, a monthly decline of about 7.83%. The price of technical - grade lithium mica (2.5%) dropped from 1935 yuan/ton to 1760 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of about 9.04%. As Jiangxi lithium mining companies submitted approval materials and some obtained approvals, the market's expectation of mine shutdown decreased, and mica ore prices further declined after the holiday. It is expected that resource disturbance risks will decrease, and the cost center will move down [13]. - **Supply and Production**: In September, the production capacity of lithium carbonate increased. Many domestic and overseas projects were put into production. The total lithium salt production in September was about 95,442 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 3.31%. The operating rate was 50.28%, a slight increase of about 1.97 percentage points from August. There were structural differences in production, with a slight decrease in mica - extracted lithium production and an increase in spodumene and salt - lake - extracted lithium production [15][16]. - **Import and Export**: Affected by the rapid increase in domestic lithium salt supply, the filling effect of imported lithium salt weakened. Chile's lithium salt exports decreased significantly in August, which may lead to a significant decline in imported resources around October. With the gradual production increase of Argentine salt - lake projects, imported resources may show diversification characteristics. In Chile, Codelco may dominate the Atacama salt - lake mining business, and the salt - lake may face more policy controls [19]. - **Downstream Products**: - **Phosphoric Acid Ferrous Lithium**: In September, the production of phosphoric acid ferrous lithium was about 351,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.77%. The operating rate was 71.18%, a significant increase of about 4.58 percentage points from August. Inventory increased. The prices of power - type and energy - storage - type phosphoric acid ferrous lithium decreased. The supply increase was more significant, and the cost center decline dragged down the price [21]. - **Ternary Materials**: In September, the production of ternary materials was about 79,030 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.95%. The operating rate was about 47.59%, an increase of about 0.45 percentage points from August. Inventory decreased slightly. The prices of 6 - series and 8 - series ternary materials increased slightly. The fundamentals were stable, and the cost pressure was stronger than that of ferrous lithium [22]. - **Batteries**: In August, the production of power batteries was about 139.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of about 4.41%. Sales were about 98.9 GWh, a decrease of 3 GWh from the previous period. The production - sales ratio was about 70.89%, indicating a large imbalance between production and sales. The loading rate of ferrous lithium batteries was better than that of ternary batteries, and the supply - demand structure of ferrous lithium batteries improved marginally [24][25]. - **Power Terminal**: In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of monthly production and sales declined rapidly, dragging down the cumulative growth rate. The new energy commercial vehicle market remained hot, with high production and sales growth rates and a production - sales ratio close to 100%. The new energy vehicle market showed significant structural differentiation between passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States maintained a growth trend [27][28][29]. - **Inventory Transfer**: As of October 3rd, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Although the market inventory decreased significantly, the factory inventory increased. The decrease in spot inventory was similar to the increase in exchange warehouse receipts, indicating that most of the spot resources flowed to the exchange rather than being consumed by production and sales [30][32]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Due to the lack of supply elasticity, lithium salt production may remain high (neutral to slightly bearish). - **Consumption**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" period ends, the demand intensity shifts from raw material stocking in the middle reaches to the terminal consumption peak season. However, the peak season of the power terminal may be limited in intensity under the control of subsidy funds, which may drag down the resilience of raw material stocking in the middle reaches (neutral to slightly bearish). - **Resources**: Low - cost salt - lake production capacities are being put into operation one after another. Lithium mining companies involved have submitted license renewal materials, and there are no signs of mine shutdown in the market, so the resource disturbance risk decreases (neutral to slightly bearish). Overall, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate downward [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas risk assets have recovered, and A-shares opened lower and closed higher. The gold price reached a new high of $4,132 due to uncertainties such as Trump's tariff threats, the US government shutdown, and interest rate cut expectations. A-shares showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding over 2% after touching 3,800 points. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. China's September export and import data were better than expected, and the export structure continued to diversify [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a strong upward phase. Silver prices have reached new highs, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, Fed interest rate cut expectations, and central bank gold - buying. If the shortage of London silver persists, silver prices are expected to continue to soar [4]. - Copper prices rebounded. Although there are uncertainties in Sino - US trade, China's September import data was strong, and the Fed's dovish stance on interest rate cuts is expected to support copper prices in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices were adjusted. The market was mainly influenced by news, and the aluminum price is expected to remain in a favorable shock range considering the supply - demand fundamentals [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply, rigid demand, and a supply - demand balance leaning towards surplus [10]. - Zinc prices stabilized and oscillated. Sino - US tariff friction cooled down, and the Fed's hint of interest rate cuts supported zinc prices, but the increase in domestic social inventory limited the upward space [11]. - Lead prices faced increasing downward pressure. With the approaching delivery and the resumption of production in refineries, supply is expected to increase while demand improvement is limited [12]. - Tin prices adjusted at a high level. Supply disturbances limited the downward space, and the market was waiting for further developments in Sino - US tariff friction [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices oscillated within a range. Supply was slightly in surplus, and demand showed mixed trends, resulting in short - term price oscillations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated weakly. Although the power and energy storage markets were strong, supply continued to hit new highs, and with the cooling of resource disturbances, prices may decline [17]. - Nickel prices may rebound. Sino - US trade disturbances cooled down, and although the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose, the current price was at the lower end of the range [19]. - The prices of soda ash and glass oscillated at a low level. After the holiday, inventory increased, and downstream purchasing was weak, so the market sentiment was low [20][21]. - Steel prices oscillated weakly. Terminal demand was weak, and the supply pressure increased, so the futures prices of steel showed a weak trend [22]. - Iron ore prices oscillated. The supply was stable, and the arrival of goods increased, while the demand from steel mills remained high, so the price was expected to oscillate [23][24]. - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal oscillated weakly. Brazil's soybean sowing progress was fast, and domestic soybean inventory increased after the holiday, resulting in sufficient supply in the short term [25][26]. - Palm oil prices adjusted with wide - range oscillations. Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased in October, and although there were some supporting factors, the weakening of oil prices and cautious market sentiment led to price oscillations [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - This section provides the closing prices, changes, change percentages, trading volumes, and positions of various metal futures contracts on October 13, including copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and agricultural products such as soybean and rapeseed meal [29]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the prices, inventory changes, and other data of SHFE copper and LME copper from October 10 to 13, including spot prices, warehouse receipts, inventory, and price spreads [30]. - For nickel, it presents the price changes, inventory, and other information of SHFE nickel and LME nickel from October 10 to 13 [30]. - For other metals such as zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean and rapeseed meal, it also provides relevant price, inventory, and spread data from different periods [33][34][35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, there is a risk of tariff escalation between China and the US, and global market risk - aversion drags down the sentiment of the domestic industrial products market. However, China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remains unchanged, with the 9 - month manufacturing PMI approaching the boom - bust line, a significant rebound in industrial enterprise profit growth, and continuous support from expansionary fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The photovoltaic supply - side reform will be further deepened [3][49]. - On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang has steadily risen to 70%, the output in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season is higher than the same period in previous years, and the new capacity investment in Gansu and Inner Mongolia has slowed down. The supply side shows a steady recovery, and social inventory fluctuates at a high level [3][49]. - On the demand side, polysilicon production is increasing, and the production plan for October is still rising month - on - month. Silicon wafer manufacturers' production plans are waiting for the implementation of the component export tax - rebate policy. Battery prices are rising, but new orders are shrinking. Component price increases are stagnant due to the slowdown in photovoltaic installations. Some leading enterprises have pre - arranged for the recycling of retired crystalline silicon components. In traditional industries, the operating rate of silicone has declined due to the incomplete recovery of terminal demand, and the aluminum alloy output has slightly increased due to the rebound in processing fees. Overall, the supply - demand structure of industrial silicon will reach a new balance in October, and the futures price is expected to remain stable and fluctuate [3][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 September Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Industrial silicon futures price fluctuated within a range**: In September 2025, the main 2511 contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated between 8215 - 9325 yuan/ton, with the price center remaining flat compared to the previous month. The improvement in industrial enterprise profit growth, the implementation of anti - involution policies, and the improvement in the production profit of photovoltaic upstream and mid - stream enterprises supported the price, but the decline in polysilicon prices dragged down market sentiment. By the end of September, the national furnace - opening number increased to 311, with a month - on - month increase of 23. From the demand side, polysilicon enterprises' production cuts were less than expected, silicon wafer price support was limited, photovoltaic battery supply - demand was in a tight balance, and component price increases were stagnant. As of September 30, the main 2511 contract closed at 8640 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.98% [8]. - **The spot market fluctuated**: In September, the average production cost of industrial silicon was 9095.49 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The social inventory was high, and the traditional industries' demand was weak. The anti - involution policy was expected to suppress the medium - term demand for industrial silicon. By the end of September, the prices of mainstream grades such as 553, 441, 421, and 3303 showed different degrees of increase. It is expected that in October, the prices of domestic mainstream grades will mainly fluctuate upwards [9][10][12]. Macroeconomic Analysis - In September, the central bank emphasized moderately loose monetary policy, strengthened counter - cyclical adjustment, and created a suitable monetary and financial environment for economic recovery. The RMB exchange rate was basically stable, and the financial market operated smoothly. China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, and the industrial enterprise profit in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year. The equipment manufacturing industry played a significant role in driving profit growth, and some traditional industries turned losses into profits. China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remained unchanged [14][16]. Fundamental Analysis - **Northern production slowly recovered, and the capacity in Sichuan and Yunnan was strongly released during the wet season**: In September, the operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang rose to about 70%, and the capacity in the southwest was strongly released due to the decline in electricity prices during the wet season. The new production increments in Inner Mongolia and Gansu were limited. The national industrial silicon output in September was 42.1 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. As of September 26, the national furnace - opening rate rose to 39.1%. Overall, the supply side was relatively loose [18][19][20]. - **Exports maintained stable growth in August**: From January to August, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 49.1 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 18%. The export volume in August was 7.66 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 18%. The export destinations were mainly in Southeast Asia. It is expected that the export volume in October will recover to about 8 tons [24]. - **The social inventory fluctuated at a high level in September**: As of September 30, the national industrial silicon social inventory rose to 54.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise. It is expected that the social inventory will slightly increase in October [29]. - **Polysilicon production cuts were less than expected, and silicon enterprises' production profit turned losses into profits**: In September, the polysilicon output was 12.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. The cumulative output from January to September was 81.13 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 33.2%. The ex - factory price of polysilicon dense material was 51 yuan/kg. In October, the production is expected to increase by 0.3 tons month - on - month. For silicon wafers, the production plan is waiting for the component export tax - rebate policy. For batteries, the price increased, but new orders decreased. For components, the price increase was limited. The recycling of retired photovoltaic components has broad prospects [32]. - **The operating rate of silicone declined, and the DMC spot price slightly increased**: In September, the output of silicone DMC was 20.88 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%. The average operating rate of silicone monomer enterprises dropped to 72.84%. The DMC spot price rose to 11050 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 13.3%. It is expected that the DMC price will slightly increase in October [35]. - **The aluminum alloy output slightly increased, and the aluminum rod processing fee stabilized and rebounded**: From January to August, the aluminum alloy output was 1232.4 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. The output in August was 163.5 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The average processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods in August was 206 yuan/ton. It is expected that the aluminum alloy output will slightly decline in October [36]. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, China's economic long - term trend of steady improvement remains unchanged. On the supply side, the supply is steadily recovering, and social inventory fluctuates at a high level. On the demand side, the demand structure is being adjusted, and the overall supply - demand will reach a new balance. It is expected that the industrial silicon futures price will remain stable and fluctuate in October, and attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution policies [49][51].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Indonesian government plans to enforce the B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026, which will generate an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil. However, the progress of the US biodiesel policy remains uncertain due to the government shutdown [4]. - The September MPOB report showed an increase in the ending inventory to 2.36 million tons, which was bearish for the market. But the production in the producing areas will enter the off - season, leading to a gradual contraction in supply. In India, the palm oil imports decreased in September due to more soybean oil imports. In China, the palm oil trading was sluggish, with weekly inventory decreasing and expected to be stable in the future. The domestic soybean oil inventory is at a five - year high, while the import of rapeseed products is expected to decrease [4]. - The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, reducing the market's expectation of easing at the APEC meeting. The US dollar index continues to fluctuate at a low level, and the oil price is weakening. The Malaysian palm oil production is entering the off - season, and there is support from the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the September MPOB report showed lower - than - expected consumption, increasing the ending inventory and limiting price increases. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1:油脂市场行情回顾 - Since September, the oil and fat sector has been oscillating. In the domestic market at the end of September, the palm oil 01 contract fell 88 to 9228 yuan/ton (-0.94%), the soybean oil 01 contract fell 218 to 8140 yuan/ton (-2.61%), and the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 255 to 10044 yuan/ton (+2.60%). In the overseas market, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 55 to 4351 ringgit/ton (-1.25%), the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.66 to 49.44 cents/pound (-5.11%), and the ICE rapeseed active contract fell 23.6 to 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.76%). In the spot market, the palm oil in Guangzhou fell 260 to 9060 yuan/ton (-2.79%), the first - grade soybean oil in Shandong fell 170 to 8300 yuan/ton (-2.01%), and the imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu rose 350 to 10250 yuan/ton (+3.54%) [9]. 3.2:基本面分析 3.2.1: MPOB Report - In August 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.855 million tons (+2.35% month - on - month), exports were 1.3247 million tons (-0.29% month - on - month), imports were 49,000 tons (-19.66% month - on - month), and the ending inventory increased to 2.2025 million tons (+4.18% month - on - month). The report was slightly bearish [19]. 3.2.2: Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - From September 1 - 30, 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 2.42% month - on - month according to SPPOMA, and by 2.35% according to MPOA, with an estimated total production of 1.81 million tons in September. Different institutions' data on September exports varied, with ITS showing a 9.6% increase, AmSpec showing a 7.3% increase, and SGS showing a 13.41% decrease compared to the previous month [22][23]. 3.2.3: Indonesian Situation - In July 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 5.606 million tons, exports were 3.537 million tons, domestic consumption was 2.034 million tons, and the inventory was 2.568 million tons. Compared with the previous year and the five - year average, there were significant changes in production, exports, and consumption [29]. 3.2.4: Indian Vegetable Oil Imports - In August 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.62 million tons. Among them, palm oil imports were 991,000 tons, soybean oil imports were 368,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 257,000 tons. There were changes compared with the previous month and the previous year [31][32]. 3.2.5: Chinese Oil and Fat Imports - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, rapeseed oil imports were 138,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports were 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to August also showed different trends compared with the previous year [36]. 3.2.6: Domestic Oil and Fat Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3794 million tons, with soybean oil inventory at 1.2487 million tons, palm oil inventory at 552,200 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory at 578,500 tons. There were changes compared with the previous week and the previous year [41]. 3.3:总结与后市展望 - The Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy will generate additional demand for palm oil, but the US biodiesel policy has uncertainties. The September MPOB report was bearish, but the production will enter the off - season. In India, palm oil imports decreased, and in China, the palm oil inventory is expected to be stable. The Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and the US dollar index and oil price are weak. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely in October with strong support at the bottom [44][45].

关注中美贸易进展 短期供应充足 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 豆粕月报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 国际方面：中美贸易冲突再度升级，中国仍未采购美豆， 市场对月底APEC期间中美会晤大豆采购担忧再起；前期 阿根廷短暂取消出口关税，中国大规模采购补充远端缺 口，当前11-1月船期待采大豆量有1000万吨左右，缺口 较前期缩窄，后续关注政策调整及国际市场采买情况； 美国政府停摆导致数据发布暂停，预计收割工作顺利进 行，出口担忧情绪仍存，市场预计10月USDA报告小幅下 调单产至53.2蒲/英亩。巴西产区降水持续，有利于播种 推 ...