2025 年 2 月 14 日 第 5 期 总第 886 期 从 CES 2025 看消费电子发展新趋势 2025 年 1 月，以"DIVE IN"（沉浸）为主题的 2025 国际消 费电子展（CES）在美举办，全球 500 强企业中有 323 家参展， 我国（含港澳台）参展企业数量接近 1500 家。本届 CES 的主题 和最大亮点是人工智能赋能万物应用，消费电子产品全面进入智 能时代。建议抢抓人工智能发展机遇，支持创新引领发展新质生 产力，抢抓汽车智能化发展机遇巩固优势，打造国际影响力大的 全球消费电子展。 - 1 - 一、2025 CES 六大领域发展呈现新亮点 （一）芯片：围绕人工智能和典型应用发力 英伟达、超威（AMD）、英特尔、高通等国际龙头企业加快 发布人工智能芯片新品，高性能、多线程、低功耗成为重要特征。 英伟达推出专为 AI 运算优化的显卡产品，性能达到上一代产品 的两倍；AMD、英伟达发布了可增强光线追踪、强化 AI 渲染性 能和画面稳定性的高性能显卡，显著提升图形处理速度。相关企 业围绕计算机、汽车、机器人等典型应用发力布局。英特尔、 AMD、高通推出采用新型设计的 AI PC 专用处理 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the need for increased policy implementation to accelerate energy efficiency improvements globally, indicating a cautious but optimistic outlook for investment in energy efficiency sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The global energy efficiency progress remains slow, with energy demand expected to grow by 2% in 2024, and energy intensity improvement projected to remain at around 1% [4][7]. - High-efficiency electrification is highlighted as a key development, with an expected increase of nearly 2% in electrification levels in 2024 [7]. - The report calls for stronger policy measures to enhance energy efficiency, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies [2][13]. Global Trends - Energy intensity improvement is slowing in developed economies, while emerging economies like China and India are seeing faster progress, with China's energy intensity improvement expected to return to around 1.5% in 2024 [7][45]. - The report notes that energy prices for consumers are slowly declining but remain above pre-crisis levels, impacting household and business energy costs [8][12]. - International commitments made at COP28 aim to double global energy efficiency by 2030, recognizing its critical role in the clean energy transition [13]. Industry Analysis Buildings - In 2023, building energy demand exceeded 120 exajoules, accounting for 28% of global final energy consumption, with energy intensity improving by 2.6% [17][18]. - Nearly half of new buildings do not meet energy efficiency standards, highlighting the need for stricter regulations and implementation plans [19]. Appliances - Appliance energy consumption is increasing, but rapid turnover rates allow for quicker efficiency improvements [20]. - Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) are becoming more common, with many countries implementing them to phase out inefficient products [20][22]. Industry - Industrial energy consumption exceeded 170 exajoules in 2023, with a 2% increase in energy demand but less than 1% growth in emissions [23][25]. - Low-intensity industries have significant opportunities for efficiency improvements, particularly through electrification [25][26]. Transportation - Transportation energy consumption in 2023 was approximately 122 exajoules, slightly above pre-pandemic levels [27][30]. - Policies to improve heavy vehicle efficiency and promote electric vehicles are being implemented in multiple countries [30]. System-wide Themes Electrification - Electrification is rapidly advancing across sectors, significantly improving energy efficiency [31][34]. - High-efficiency electrification can reduce energy consumption by over two-thirds compared to traditional systems [34]. Flexibility - Increased flexibility in power systems is essential to accommodate more renewable energy and improve affordability [35][36]. - Policies supporting demand response and energy storage are becoming more prevalent [36]. Funding - Investment in energy efficiency, including electrification, is expected to grow nearly 4% in 2024, maintaining historical high levels [38][40]. - Emerging markets are projected to see significant increases in efficiency-related investments, particularly in Africa and the Middle East [40]. Employment - Energy efficiency employment is nearing 10 million, driven primarily by the manufacturing and installation of heat pumps [42][43]. - There is a notable shortage of skilled workers in key energy efficiency roles, indicating potential for workforce development [43]. Regional Insights China - China's energy intensity improvement is expected to be around 1.5% in 2024, with significant investments planned in energy efficiency [45][46]. India - India is set to see significant energy efficiency improvements, with investments in the sector expected to grow to nearly $20 billion in 2024 [47][48]. Southeast Asia - Southeast Asia's energy efficiency progress is expected to slightly improve, but challenges remain in shifting investment focus from fossil fuels to efficiency [49][50]. Africa - Africa has seen an average annual energy intensity improvement of about 1.6% from 2022 to 2024, with ongoing efforts to enhance policy frameworks for efficiency [51][52]. Latin America - Latin America is experiencing signs of slowing energy efficiency improvements, with investments in the sector expected to reach a record $185 billion in 2024 [53][54].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the software industry Core Insights - The software industry is crucial for the development of a strong manufacturing and digital economy in China, with a focus on cultivating high-quality talent to support innovation and growth [3][10] - The report predicts a significant demand for talent in the key software sector, with an estimated shortfall of 508,400 professionals by 2030 [77] - The software industry in China has maintained a double-digit growth rate, with software business revenue reaching 12.4 trillion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [18][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Key Software Concepts - Key software includes critical foundational software, large industrial software, industry application software, new platform software, and embedded software [11] Section 2: Industry Development Status - The global IT industry is steadily growing, with enterprise software surpassing hardware for the first time in 2022, reaching a size of 1.04 trillion USD in 2023, growing at a rate of 12.6% [13] - China's software industry has seen an average annual growth rate of 27.05% since 2001, with key software contributing significantly to the overall software revenue [18] Section 3: Talent Development Status - The software industry workforce has grown from 6.775 million to 7.594 million over the past five years, but R&D personnel saw a decline of 1.74% in 2023 [22] - The average output per person in the software industry reached 1.628 million yuan in 2023, with a notable slowdown in salary growth [27] - The educational background of software professionals shows a stable distribution, with bachelor's degrees making up 65.15% of the workforce [30] Section 4: Talent Forecast Analysis - The report forecasts that the key software sector will reach a scale of 6.4 trillion yuan by 2030, with a projected talent demand of 3.0808 million professionals [69][75] - The demand for talent in specific segments such as embedded software and industry application software is expected to be significant, with 23.75% and 34.43% of the total demand respectively [79] Section 5: Main Issues and Causes - There are significant gaps in resource allocation for software-related academic programs, leading to a shortage of qualified professionals [80] - The collaboration between enterprises and educational institutions is often hindered by unclear benefits and a lack of long-term commitment [83] Section 6: Recommendations - The report suggests enhancing government support for collaborative education initiatives and increasing investment in software talent development [84] - It recommends that enterprises establish effective long-term cooperation mechanisms with educational institutions to better align talent training with industry needs [86]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the safety emergency industry, projecting it to enter a high-quality development phase by 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The safety emergency industry in China is expected to expand significantly, driven by government initiatives, demand growth, and technological advancements [2][3]. - By 2025, the industry scale is projected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Judgments on 2025 Situation - The development environment for the safety emergency industry is improving, with policies being implemented to support growth [4][5]. - Significant government funding, including the issuance of 1 trillion yuan in bonds, is aimed at enhancing disaster recovery and emergency response capabilities [5][6]. 2. Base Scale and Development Quality - The industry is experiencing cluster development, with 42 safety emergency industry bases established across China [10][11]. - The report highlights the formation of regional clusters in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau, promoting coordinated development [10][11]. 3. Demand for Key Application Scenarios - The report notes an increasing demand for safety emergency equipment due to frequent natural disasters and safety incidents [13][14]. - The focus is on developing equipment for urgent needs, particularly in areas prone to natural disasters and safety risks [13][14]. 4. High-Quality Equipment Supply System - The supply of safety emergency equipment is expected to improve, with a shift towards specialization and standardization [14][15]. - The integration of advanced technologies such as AI and IoT is anticipated to enhance the industry's capabilities [14][15]. 5. Challenges and Recommendations - The report identifies several challenges, including the need for improved policy support, a complete industrial chain, and enhanced innovation capabilities [17][18]. - Recommendations include increasing policy support, fostering collaboration among stakeholders, and enhancing market cultivation to better align supply and demand [23][24][28].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for China's raw materials industry, with an overall positive investment sentiment for 2025 [2][3][22]. Core Insights - The raw materials industry in China is expected to maintain a growth trend in value added, with investment scale continuing to expand and economic benefits likely to improve [2][3][22]. - The report highlights the need for policies to enhance mineral resource supply security, accelerate digital transformation, and optimize product supply structure to address existing challenges [2][3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Judgments for 2025 - The value added of the raw materials industry is projected to grow, with mixed production trends across major products [4][8]. - The growth rates for various sectors such as non-ferrous metal smelting and chemical manufacturing are expected to remain robust, while steel and construction materials may continue to decline [5][8]. 2. Investment Trends - Investment in the raw materials industry is on the rise, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, which saw growth rates of 26.4% and 25.9% in mining and smelting respectively [10][12]. - The overall investment scale in the raw materials industry is anticipated to expand further, supported by government projects and private sector investments [12][13]. 3. Trade Dynamics - The report notes a divergence in trade performance among raw materials, with steel exports increasing by 23.3% while imports decreased by 10.1% [14][16]. - Non-ferrous metal exports are also on the rise, driven by demand from emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and aerospace [14][16]. 4. Price Trends - Raw material prices are expected to show mixed trends, with steel prices declining and chemical product prices fluctuating [18][22]. - The report anticipates that the price of high-end materials may rise due to increased demand from new industries, while traditional product prices may face downward pressure [18][22]. 5. Economic Benefits - The economic benefits of the raw materials industry are projected to improve, driven by domestic demand and supportive government policies [20][22]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in profitability across sectors, with some areas like non-ferrous metals showing growth while others like steel face significant challenges [20][22]. 6. Challenges and Recommendations - The report identifies several challenges, including the need for enhanced mineral resource supply capabilities and accelerated digital transformation [26][29]. - Recommendations include implementing policies to support growth, enhancing domestic resource security, and optimizing product supply structures to meet evolving market demands [32][34][37].

2025年我国石化化工行业发展形势展望 【内容提要】 预计2025年，在国内外经济复杂多变形势下，我国石化化工行业增 加值增速将有所放缓，主要产品产量出现分化；投资规模持续扩大，增速减慢；产品出口 增减不一，进口总体呈下降趋势；原油价格震荡下行，产品价格呈分化走势下降趋势；行 业效益有所改善，利润增长缓慢。同时，石化化工行业面临结构性产能过剩问题凸显、绿 色低碳发展压力大、数字化转型亟待提速和贸易摩擦风险加速等问题。针对以上，赛迪研 究院提出强化科技创新、推进绿色低碳发展、加快数字化转型和加强国际交流合作等对策 建议。 【关键词】 石化化工行业 发展形势 展望 2025年是"十四五"的收官之年，也是"十五五"的规划之年。 预计2025年经济回升向好态势将得以接续巩固，但困难挑战和不确定性 仍然不少，地缘冲突不确定性增加致使国际油价仍会处于高位震荡。石 化化工行业供给端逐步改善，美联储降息有望提振需求，国内一系列政 策出台有望刺激化工需求复苏，预计2025年石化化工行业供需将有所改 善，盈利有望提升。 CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID ...

2025年我国生物制造行业发展形势展望 【内容提要】 生物制造在食品、医药、材料、化工及能源等国民经济重要领域的 快速渗透，为制造业发展带来变革性影响，当前我国生物制造正处于重要快速发展期。预 计2025年，行业规模进一步扩大，技术创新、投融资继续保持较高热度，市场培育和产品 推广成为企业关注热点，地方产业政策出台热度持续增强，同时，国际创新竞争、经贸环 境变化等影响因素不容轻视。赛迪研究院梳理了行业发展面临的新形势，并从技术装备攻 关、布局支撑体系、完善产业体系、产品准入推广、生物安全保障等五方面提出建议。 【关键词】 生物制造行业 发展形势 展望 展望2025年，地方政策工具供给持续加强，为生物制造行业发展提 供助力，预计行业规模保持良好增长态势，技术创新、生产投资有望继 续保持较高热度，同时，技术装备攻关、审批准入优化、标准体系健全 等环节亟待加强，国际经贸环境变化的潜在影响仍不容轻视。总体看， 进入"十五五"时期，我国生物制造将迎来发展黄金机遇期，多管齐下 夯实产业创新体系、要素支撑体系、管理服务体系，对行业行稳致远发 展具有重要意义。 CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID CCID CC ...

【关键词】 有色金属行业 发展形势 展望 2024年，我国有色金属行业呈现良好发展态势，生产、投资、贸 易、企业利润均实现同比增长。预计2025年，在下游需求拉动下，整体 运行有望延续良好态势，企业效益持续向好，同时应警惕地缘冲突、贸 易摩擦、供给扰动带来的价格波动风险和进出口政策调整风险。 一、对2025年形势的基本判断 中国工业和信息化 发展形势展望系列 2025年我国有色金属行业发展形势展望 【内容提要】 预计2025年，受全球经济逐步恢复和新兴产业增长拉动影响，我国 有色金属行业有望延续良好运行态势。同时，随着企业持续推进智能化改造，加强在新产 品、新工艺方面的研发投入，产业整体竞争力加速提升。但产业结构性产能过剩问题仍然 存在，资源安全保障能力有待进一步提升，行业节能降碳形势依然严峻，叠加价格波动的 风险提升，有色金属行业高质量发展面临挑战。针对以上，赛迪研究院提出引导企业推进 兼并重组和行业自律，充分利用多边双边合作机制深化国际合作，加大绿色化投资改造等 对策建议。 中国工业和信息化 发展形势展望系列 （一）整体运行有望延续良好态势 2024年1-10月份，有色金属行业生产形势稳健。工业增加值和产 ...

中国工业和信息化 发展形势展望系列 2025年我国消费品工业发展形势展望 【内容提要】 2024年，我国消费品工业生产、收入、消费、出口等主要经济指标保 持持续回升态势，稳增长、扩内需基础得到进一步夯实。展望2025年，消费品工业经济整 体将呈现"生产向上向好、营收稳步改善、消费有序增长、出口保持向好"发展态势。同 时，也面临外贸环境更趋复杂严峻、有效需求不足问题仍存、企业运营压力增大等问题。 鉴于此，赛迪研究院提出了政府和市场"双轮驱动"推动投资和消费有机衔接、加快推动 行业数字化转型、全面提高行业发展质效、深入实施区域协同工程等相关建议。 【关键词】 消费品工业 发展形势 展望 2024年，在国家促消费"一揽子"政策和接续措施全面落地实施推 动下，消费品工业生产持续回升，营收小幅增长，内需有序恢复，出口 持续转好，总体保持稳定增长态势。展望2025年，消费品工业发展的内 外部环境依然复杂，欧美贸易政策变化带来更多不确定性和不稳定性， 国内有效需求不足问题仍然存在，企业生产经营仍面临不少困难问题， 对产业高质量发展和稳增长提出更高要求。 一、对2025年形势的基本判断 （一）生产将向上向好 2024年，消费 ...

Industry Growth and Performance - China's software and information technology services industry achieved a revenue of 9.8281 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 10.8%[5] - The information technology services sector contributed 6.6164 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.3% of the total industry revenue[5] - The eastern region led with 8.186 trillion yuan in software revenue, representing 83.3% of the national total, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area growing by 13%[5] Regional and Sectoral Highlights - Central China showed strong growth, with Hubei Province achieving a 15.3% year-on-year increase in software revenue[5] - The software industry's high-quality development is driving economic digitalization and intelligent transformation[5] Future Trends and Opportunities - By 2025, the software industry is expected to benefit from new technological revolutions, with AI and other emerging technologies accelerating industrial innovation[10] - Key software applications will deepen, and the integration of digital and physical realms is expected to achieve significant breakthroughs[10] International Expansion - In the first three quarters of 2024, China's software exports reached $41.03 billion, a 4.2% year-on-year increase, with overseas revenue of listed companies hitting 18.92 billion yuan, up 25.1%[22] - More software companies are expected to accelerate international expansion, enhancing China's global influence in the software industry[22] Challenges and Risks - The industry faces challenges such as economic downturns, technological transitions, and increased international competition, particularly in automotive software and AI[40][42] - Open-source communities are becoming politicized, and key projects may face risks due to dependency on a few core maintainers[43][45]